The Perils of Closing Time

I came up with a very silly little formula to give me the most dominant closer seasons of the last 10 years. I’m embarrassed to even tell you the formula because it’s so dumb — and, honestly, the formula isn’t the point of this post — but hey, we’re nothing if not transparent here at JoeBlogs, so here goes:

(Saves × ERA+) ÷ FIP

Like I say, it’s dumb. But I’m trying to figure something out, and this was just the first thing that came to mind.

I needed saves in there because my thought refers specifically to closers. I included ERA+ because I wanted a multiplier to reflect run prevention. And I divided by Fielding Independent Pitching because… I don’t know, it was sitting there, and it felt mathy.

Pretty sure this was how Pythagoras worked.

Anyway, the important thing is: it gave me more or less the list I wanted.

According to whatever you want to call this mess, the most dominant closer season of the last decade was Zack Britton’s 2016. I’m good with that. That year, Britton had 47 saves, a 0.54 ERA, and a 1.94 FIP.*

And that’s kind of fun — if you want, I’ll give you the historic list later in the week — but I was curious about something else: How many closers these days are consistently dominant? How many of them can you RELY on to be consistently commanding year after year after years?

We can look at this question historically later this week if you want. But I’m wondering about right now — when there are so many pitchers who throw impossibly hard, when max effort reigns, when everybody feels like they’re one pitch away from Tommy John surgery.

Here’s what I found: Since 2016, 24 closers have posted at least one 3,000-point season (using my silly little formula). Among them, no one has done it three times and just six have done it twice:

• Aroldis Chapman (2016 and 2019)

• Edwin Díaz (2018 and 2022)

• Emmanuel Clase (2022 and 2024)

• Josh Hader (2021 and 2023)

• Kenley Jansen (2016 and 2017)

• Kirby Yates (2019 and 2024)

Here’s why all of this strikes me: Closers are not built to last. Yes, Aroldis Chapman is STILL throwing 100 mph fastballs — it’s utterly incredible that this guy at 37 is still, like the hardest throwing guy in the game, but would you trust him to close out the biggest games? The Red Sox are the fourth team in four years to give it a shot.

The list iof great closer seasons is mostly filled with guys like Corey Knebel, Félix Bautista, Jeurys Familia, David Bednar, Daniel Bard, and others who had their one glorious reliever year and then, for one reason or another, couldn’t follow it up. (Remember how absurdly good Daniel Bard was in 2022?)

All of this is to say:

You just can’t count on closers for very long.*

This (finally) brings us to Devin Williams.

When the Yankees traded for Williams this past offseason, it felt like exactly the right move.

The franchise was reeling a bit after getting outbid for Juan Soto, and Williams seemed like the perfect fit:

They had made it to the World Series last year despite the crumbling of Clay Holmes, and while Luke Weaver had been brilliant for much of 2024, they couldn’t fully bet on him as a long-term solution. Williams, meanwhile, had been absurdly dominant: from 2020–24, he went 27–10 with 68 saves, a 1.70 ERA, and averaged about 15 strikeouts per nine innings.

In 2023, he had one of those dominant seasons I was talking about — scoring 3,823 points in my closer formula, the 19th-best closer season of the last decade.

And yes, he missed a lot of 2024 with injury. But when he came back in July, he was as unhittable as ever. He seemed like about as sure a thing as you could find in today’s bullpens.

Less than a month into 2025, he’s given up 12 runs in eight innings.

Less than a month into 2025, the Yankees pulled him from the closer’s role.

“For right now, I’m gonna take him out of that role,” manager Aaron Boone said Sunday. “As I said to him, ‘You’ve still got everything to be great.’ This is a guy who’s in the prime of his career and is just going through it a little bit. It happens.”

It does happen. All the time. You’d still bet on Williams to find himself again, but it’s just another reminder: There are no sure things when it comes to closing out the late innings … though it should be said that Luke Weaver has not allowed a run yet this year.

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