The Uehara Phenomenon

So, you probably know that this year Boston’s Koji Uehara proved to be harder to reach base against than any pitcher in the history of baseball. That’s a pretty good thing. Here’s the list of the Top 10 WHIPs in baseball history, pitching at least 50 innings:

1. Koji Uehara, 2013, 0.565
2. Dennis Eckersley, 1989, 0.607
3. Dennis Eckersley, 1990, 0.614
4. Craig Kimbrel, 2012, 0.654
5. Mariano Rivera, 2008, 0.665
6. Joaquin Benoit, 2010, 0.680
7. Eric Gagne, 2003, 0.692
8. J.J. Putz, 2007, 0.698
9. Cla Meredith, 2006, 0.711
10. Takashi Saito, 2007, 0.715

A couple of interesting tidbits — at No. 11 on the list in Uehara again in 2011. No. 12 on the list? Pedro. That was 2000, his WHIP was 0.737. And when you consider he threw three times the innings of the rest of these guys, when you consider that his strikeout-to-walk that year was 284-well, it’s no wonder many believe Pedro’s 2000 season was the best season in baseball history.

Anyway, you look at the Top 10 and you see … closers. Well, two of them — Benoit and Meredith — were setup men. But the rest were closers. The fact that eight of the Top 10 WHIPs of all time are closers might throw a little dagger at the myth that the ninth inning is the toughest inning to get outs. But that’s not our point today. No, we’re focusing on Koji Uehara.

Uehara began his career in Japan — he was the first pick in the Japanese amateur draft coming out of Osaka University. He won 20 games his first year, and was a good starter for the Yomiuri Giants and an excellent starter for the Japanese international team at the Olympics and World Baseball Classic and so on. In 2007, at age 32, he became a closer for Yomiuri and was pretty dominant. After the 2008 season, he signed with the Baltimore Orioles as a starter. He struggled. He got hurt. The next year, the Orioles put him in the bullpen. He showed amazing control (five walks in 44 innings) and actually closed a few games for Baltimore. But nobody was too excited about him.

Then in 2011, there was this amazing trade that nobody at all thought was amazing at the time.

The Orioles sent Uehara and some money to the Texas Rangers.

The Rangers sent a struggling starter named Tommy Hunter and minor league first baseman named Chris Davis in return.

I guess what they say is true: You never know when a minor trade will yield a future 50-home run man and a pitcher who will set the record for lowest WHIP in a season. OK, I don’t know if that’s a saying. Uehara pitched well for the Rangers but could not stay healthy. His WHIP while in Texas was an astounding 0.685. He simply did not give up hits and did not give up walks. But he only threw 54 innings in a year and a half and, anyway, the only thing anyone really noticed was that he struggled in his three games in the 2011 postseason. Mostly it was one game. In a game against Tampa Bay in the 2011 Division Series, he came in with a 7-3 lead in the seventh. He promptly walked Desmond Jennings, gave up a line-drive single to B.J. Upton and gave up a home run to Evan Longoria. He was removed.

He also gave up run in his next two outings against Detroit in the ALCS, but I think it was that first outing that left the sour aftertaste. Uehara had not done anything to create an impression in the mind of American baseball fans — he was sort of a blank slate. After the Longoria disaster, everyone had their impression. The next year, he came into the wildcard game against Baltimore with the Rangers already down 3-1. He struck out trademate Chris Davis. He struck out Adam Jones. He struck out Matt Wieters. But it wasn’t a big moment, and it wasn’t memorable enough to erase Longoria from memory.

The Red Sox signed him to a one-year, $4.25 million deal, as minor a deal as they come (though it is now a two-year deal because the vesting option kicked in — much to Boston’s delight). Uehara was going to be the team’s sixth inning option — not their closer, not their setup man and not really their setup to the setup man. Their original closer was hard-throwing Joel Hanrahan — he blew out his elbow nine games in and had Tommy John Surgery.

So, everyone moved up one spot. That meant that Andrew Bailey was now the closer. Bailey had won the Rookie of the Year award in 2009 as the A’s closer, and he was dominant again the next year, but then he had all kinds of injuries and travails. He was the Red Sox closer for a little less than three months — then he hurt his shoulder. On June 26, the Red Sox made Uehara their closer.

I’m now going to give you Uehara’s numbers the rest of the season. Please hold your applause until the end.

Innings pitched: 44 1/3
Hits allowed: 14
Hits allowed (seriously): 14
Come on, how many hits did he allow?: 14
That’s ridiculous: I know.
Runs allowed: 3
Home runs allowed: 1
Strikeouts: 59
Walks: 2
OK stop it right now: 2 walks. Look it up.
Batting average against: .097
On-base percentage: .108
Slugging percentage: .152
WHIP: You sure you’re ready for this?
Say it already: Ask nicely.
WHIP: 0.358

Thank you for coming ladies and gentleman. Please drive home safely.

How? OK, it’s only 44 1/3 innings, and small sample size, and closers only throw one inning at a time and … how?? Koji Uehara does not throw hard. Pitchf/x shows his average fastball to be 89.2 mph, right about where it has been ever since he came from Japan. His money pitch, the split-fingered fastball, goes about 81 mph. In a world of 102-mph fastballs, how in the world does Uehara prove to be the impossible to reach base against guy?

Of course, you begin with control. This was always one of the most underrated parts of Mariano Rivera’s brilliance — yes he broke all those bats, and he threw the same pitch again and again, but he almost never hurt himself with the walk. His best season as a closer was probably 2008. He walked six batters in 70 2/3 innings.

Uehara has always had crazy good control his entire big league career. He only pitched 36 innings for the Rangers on 2012, but he walked just three batters. We do fall in love with closers who throw the Kimbrel out of the ball. But there have been many good closers — starting with Dennis Eckersley, but including the great Dan Quisenberry and Doug Jones — who did not throw hard and instead succeeded with pinpoint control and a lot of deception. Uehara obviously has that.

The second thing is this: Uehara’s pitches — his two-seam fastball and splitter, in particular — move so much that major league hitters often fail to hit the ball even when it’s IN THE STRIKE ZONE. This is a big deal. Big league hitters tend to be pretty successful when swinging at balls in the strike zone. This year, hitters failed to make contact on 31.1% of the pitches they swung at in the strike zone. That was easily the highest percentage in baseball.

Top five pitchers at making hitters miss balls in the strike zone:

1. Uehara, 31.1%
2. Ernesto Frieri, 26.9%
3. Aroldis Chapman, 25.6%
4. Greg Holland, 24.2%
5. Kenley Jansen, 23.8%

Now, the same top five with their average fastball speed:

1. Uehara, 89.2 mph
2. Frieri, 94.1 mph
3. Chapman, 98.4 mph
4. Holland, 96.1 mph
5. Jansen, 93.6 mph

So, yeah, you can see the difference. They blow it BY hitters’ bats. Uehara works above and below hitters’ bats. Uehara has two pitches that move in very different ways. His two-seam fastball seems to come crashing in on righties and pulls away from lefties — sort of the opposite of the Rivera cutter. And his split-fingered fastball tends to work as a change-up (it’s 8 mph slower than the fastball, which is close to the idea difference) AND it dives down late. From a hitter’s perspective, apparently, this is like walking out into a field and being unsure if you will be attacked by wasps or zombie arms coming out of the ground. Hitters do not know where to look.

And you KNOW he won’t walk you.

There’s really no escape for now with Uehara is at the top of his powers.

It’s a pretty remarkable array of talents, especially when you consider that Uehara is now 38 years old and the Red Sox tried two other guys before making him the closer. So far this postseason, Uehara has pitched in seven games. In one of them, he gave up the game-winning home run to Tampa Bay’s Jose Lobaton. In another, he gave up two Tigers hits before settling down and finishing the inning without giving up a run. Thursday, he pitched 1 2/3 perfect innings.

All in all in the postseason, he has pitched eight innings, given up four hits. His WHIP is 0.500. He has not walked a single batter.

16 thoughts on “The Uehara Phenomenon

  1. steve

    Uehara was dropped from the World Series roster after the ALCS in 2011. Washington had so lost his confidence in him that there were rumors that they’d just cut him in spring training in 2012 when they couldn’t get a decent offer for him in the offseason.

    Reply
  2. jjsakon

    If anything the stats say the 9th inning is the easiest inning to get outs: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/7/3/2255959/all-innings-are-not-created-equal-how-run-scoring-varies-by-inning
    That said there are so many factors to control for here. The biggest being that guys like Uehara pitch in the 9th inning. And relievers in general are harder to hit (e.g. Luke Hochevar became a lot better when he could amp it up for an inning instead of 6) and brought in situationally

    Reply
  3. Jeff

    I sure am glad that he refused a trade to the Blue Jays last winter.
    Awesome.
    Signed,
    Blue Jays Fan for whom 2013 cant end quickly enough.

    Reply
  4. troywestfield

    I think *this* might actually be why baseball is unfair to its small market fans. Yes, the Red Sox can use their money to field a stronger roster with a better chance to win a World Series than Kansas City ever can. But I feel worse for Kansas City because Royals fans can only watch the occasional Beltran or Greinke come up and then leave. Whereas (full disclosure: we) Sox fans can see Uehara do this and think we haven’t seen a player this exciting since … Ortiz. And before him Manny. And Petey in 2000 and 2001. Not to mention taking flyers that don’t work out; remember the hype around Matsuzaka?

    Reply
    1. Chris M

      As a Mets fan, I can promise you that it has nothing to do with big market/small market. It’s all about smart front office/dumb front office

      Reply
  5. wordyduke

    Tigers fan here, lamenting that the Boston bullpen, anchored by Uehara, has given up 1 (one) run in 17 innings. We had better score early over the weekend.

    Thanks for the sharp and entertaining analysis of relievers with great control. If they’re on your side, there’s another benefit: guys like Mitch Williams can bring on heartburn.

    Reply
  6. Adam

    O’s fan here. Baltimore fans LOVED Koji once he moved to the bullpen. I remember him as one of the rare players who is universally loved by a fanbase. In most fanbases, you can find contrarian opinions about even the best players (they don’t play hard enough, they strike out too much, their contract is too expensive, etc). It never seemed that way with Koji.

    He wouldn’t have won a lot of Oriole MVP votes, but if every player got a good/bad approval rating, his would have been 100% good.

    Reply
  7. iffotun

    Fun Koji Fact: In 2013 Koji was 32nd among all pitchers in fWAR. Every pitcher ahead of him threw at least 100 more innings. Same with the seven right behind him.

    Reply
  8. Steve

    While we’re talking about relievers who succeed not through blazing speed but through pinpoint accuracy, we might consider adding Keith Foulke to the list. There was another guy where you’d watch him and ask “how on earth does he avoid giving up hits”, with his fastballs at 89-90, a change at ~80 and a very occasional curveball… but a combination of weird delivery (kinda hiding the ball behind his head and throwing it like a dart) as well as a Maddux-like command of where it was going, allowed him to be one of the most dominant relievers in the game from 1999 through 2004.

    He then got overpitched in the 2004 postseason, injured his knee and elbow in quick succession, and was never the same again. Let’s hope the analogy with Uehara doesn’t hold true for that part of the story.

    Reply
  9. KHAZAD

    It is perhaps even more impressive when you look at his season from an offensive standpoint.

    Hitters triple slash against him this year was .130/.163/.237. National League pitchers in 2013 were .135/.166/.174. Of course the slugging percentage is going to be higher than the pitchers, but AL hitters reached base against him at a lower rate than the average pitcher would give up if he faced nothing but pitchers.

    Reply
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  11. Jonathan H.

    Let me echo that comment about Baltimore. People have this idea that because the O’s traded him it means they didn’t like him. No, they reasoned (as you say and Jonah Keri and Fangraphs and Rany and Rob Neyer and Keith Law and just about everybody else who analytically follows baseball believes) that you should trade closers for other parts because closers are a luxury item.

    The O’s sucked when Uehara was the closer and having a good closer was not the way to get them winning so they traded him to Texas for some spare parts hoping that somebody could pan out. They were right, Chris Davis is awesome, but the O’s did like Koji.

    Reply

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