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How Bryce Detonates

6 Responses to How Bryce Detonates

  1. Bryan says:

    Maddux’s 13 Madduxes are by far the most since 1988. Very little pitch count information is available prior to that. Mentioning Koufax implies a longer history but for instance Blyleven only has a pitch count for 5 of his 60 career shutouts and 2 of those are under 100 pitches so if 22% of the other 55 shutouts are under 100 pitches he would have more than Maddux.

  2. Bryan says:

    Since the start of 2012 when Sale became a starter there are 17 pitchers with at least 50 starts of 7+ IP and 2 or fewer runs allowed. Sale with 69 such games is exactly in the middle in terms of win% (as in ignoring no decisions) at .882 (45 wins, 6 losses). Including no decisions:
    51.6% – Justin Verlander 33 wins in 64 games of 7+ IP and 0-2 Runs
    58.2% – Jeff Samardzija 32 wins in 55 games
    60.0% – James Shields 30 wins in 50 games
    60.6% – Cole Hamels 43 wins in 71 games
    64.5% – Jon Lester 40 wins in 62 games
    65.0% – Felix Hernandez 52 wins in 80 games
    65.2% – Chris Sale 45 wins in 69 games
    66.7% – Madison Bumgarner 44 wins in 66 games
    66.7% – Zack Greinke 42 wins in 63 games
    68.0% – Dallas Keuchel 34 wins in 50 games
    72.9% – Johnny Cueto 51 wins in 70 games
    73.9% – David Price 51 wins in 69 games
    74.0% – Corey Kluber 37 wins in 50 games
    74.3% – Max Scherzer 55 wins in 74 games
    76.7% – Clayton Kershaw 66 wins in 86 games
    76.8% – Bartolo Colon 43 wins in 56 games
    79.6% – Adam Wainwright 43 wins in 54 games
    Sale not all that unlucky, a 25 win projection would be something like 30 starts of 7+ IP and 0-2 Runs allowed, winning 80% of those starts and picking up one more win in his other 2 starts if he matches his career high of 32 starts set last season. The last player to win 80% of their starts (min 20 starts) in a season is Dazzy Vance in 1924. Kershaw in 2014 won 77.8% (21 wins, 27 starts), Guidry “only” won 71.4% (25 wins, 35 starts). Guidry had 16 complete games and 9 shutouts that season, Sale has 14 and 2 in his career.
    Information provided by Play Index

  3. invitro says:

    From Medium… “After 20 years of terrible baseball, you get to win two pennants and a World Series. … You take that deal right? You take it and you don’t even think twice about it.” — It’s an interesting question. But no, I sure wouldn’t take it. A WS and two pennants in 20 years… that’s average; combine with ~15 years of incompetence and it’s well below average. I don’t think many fans would take that deal, and Joe might be the only person who’d take it without thinking twice. Maybe a few fans of small-market teams like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati or Minnesota. But that the typical fan would take the deal without thinking twice… I think that’s a pretty bizarre statement.

    • Bryan says:

      In the last 20 years there have been 150 playoff series (includes Wild Card games, excludes tie-breakers), playoff series wins per team:
      19 – Yankees
      16 – Cardinals
      13 – Giants
      12 – Red Sox
      6 – Marlins, Royals, Cubs, Indians, Tigers, Mets, Phillies
      5 – Angels, Braves
      4 – Dodgers, D’Backs, Astros, Rangers
      3 – Orioles, White Sox, Rays, Blue Jays
      2 – Rockies, Padres, Mariners
      1 – Brewers, Twins, A’s, Pirates
      0 – Reds, Nationals
      4 teams with a bunch of playoff success including 12 of the last 20 World Series titles. Marlins with 2 titles. Royals, Angels, D’Backs, Cubs, White Sox and Phillies with 1 title. 19 out of 30 teams with 6 or fewer playoff series won and no championships in the last 20 years.

    • Patrick says:

      Mathematically, there’s always going to be a team somewhere working on a 29-year drought. In a realistic sense, that number is much higher. There are 11 such teams in MLB right now. Seven of them are at 40+. Six of them are at 48+. So figure that for nearly a quarter of the league, none of their fans under say, age 45, have seen a championship. If you were a fan of those teams, would you wager that your franchise wouldn’t become the next Cubs?

      I’d really like to see the Falcons win a Super Bowl, so I’d take that deal. I’ve seen the Yankees and Rangers win a title, so it’s less of a big deal.

    • Marc Schneider says:

      It depends on perspective. Living in the Washington area and not being a huge hockey fan, I think a lot of true blue Capitals fans would take a period of lousy hockey just to win a Stanley Cup. Right now, anyway. The Nats might be getting to that point as well. But, of course, that’s at the time. The Blue Jays won back-to-back WS and then didn’t make the playoffs for 20 years. At the time, fans probably would have been ok with that deal, but later on, not so much.

      But, I agree, you definitely at least think twice about it.

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