Diary of a Losing team: Batting Champs
Posted: July 19th, 2010 | Filed under: Baseball | 73 Comments »
You may or may not know this but the Kansas City Royals lead all of baseball in hitting. Anyway, that’s how the expression goes. When you lead the league in batting average, people will say you lead the league in hitting. It doesn’t make much sense, really, since the goal of hitting — the offensive goal in baseball — is certainly not to get more hits per at-bat than other teams. But “leading the league in hitting” is what people have called it since the dawn of time.
The Royals are hitting .281 as a team, which is three points better than the Texas Rangers, and it’s 22 points better than the major league average of .259. A couple of guys in the lineup — David DeJesus (.320) and Billy Butler (.317) — are among the Top 10 in hitting and others like Scott Podsednik (.302) and Mike Aviles (.300) are right around .300.
So … with all that … why is it that the Royals are a pretty lousy offensive baseball team?
Well, they are well below average. They are 10th in the American League in runs scored and going backward. The last month or so they are averaging about three and a half runs per game. Toronto, the Royals opponent for three games starting today, is hitting 38 points worse than the Royals. The Blue Jays have scored more runs.
The easiest and most obvious answer here is that batting average is a bad way to judge a team’s offensive production. And it is. After all, you don’t have to be a statistical wizard to look at the Royals numbers and understand why they aren’t scoring runs. Sure, they’re leading the league in batting average and are second in hits … but they are dead last in walks, which blunts the advantage. Dead last … so, even with all those hits, the Royals are still only in the middle of the pack when it comes to getting on-base. They are seventh in the league in on-base percentage.
The Royals also don’t hit with power — the Royals are 12th in the league with only 62 home runs as a team (and they have hit only 21 homers in their last 42 games). They are ninth in slugging percentage. So — mediocre on-base percentage with below average power, yeah, you’re not going to score many runs. You can top that off with the fact that the Royals are also once again a dreadful base-running team — according to the Bill James base-running system they are -35 bases, worst in the American League, and they have been caught 33 of the 88 times they have tried to steal a base,* which means they’re just giving away outs.
*They are being caught stealing 37.5% of the time, much higher than the league average of 27.6%. I think even the most aggressive of baseball people would admit that when you’re getting caught about four out of 10 times, it’s past time to quit trying to steal bases.
But I think there’s something else going on here beyond the numbers. It seems to me the Royals have a motivation problem. I think the problem is not that the Royals lead the league in hitting — it is that they seem to WANT to lead the league in hitting, like it is their goal. And that would be a real problem.
I think back to the Dick Vermeil Kansas City Chiefs of the early 2000s. Vermeil loved offense. He lived for offense. He was the coach of the original “Greatest Show On Turf” St. Louis Rams who bludgeoned teams with their preposterous speed and fast break attack — and it seemed like Vermeil’s main goal was to recreate that in Kansas City. And, to a surprising degree, he was successful. His Chiefs, after many years of offensive stagnation, scored a bajillion points, amassed a bajillion yards, set a bajillion team records.
The one thing they didn’t do, however, was win. They only made the playoffs once in the Vermeil years, and they were outscored by Peyton Manning in that playoff game. The main problem (some would say the only problem) was a historically awful defense that Vermeil and his coaches did not know how to fix. Now, this is not exactly like the Royals situation because scoring a lot of points (unlike getting a lot of hits) IS a viable strategy for winning football games. The similarity comes from the last couple of years of the Vermeil era when the team missed the playoffs but he would give us daily updates of the offense’s success. It just seemed like the Chiefs main focus was not so much on winning games but, instead, on having a great offense.
That seems like the Royals to me … like they are more interested in having a good batting average than in having a good offense.
What makes me say this? Well, there are a few things. One has been the Kila Conundrum. For years now, Kila Ka’aihue has been one of the more interesting and argued about prospects in baseball. The reason: He walks. A lot. That’s his most obvious skill. He has walked 100 times each of the last two minor league seasons, and he walked 97 times as a 21-year-old. He is closing in on 700 minor league walks.
Different people see those walks in different ways. Some think Kila’s plate discipline make him an outstanding prospect … especially because he’s a big guy (6-foot-3, 233 pounds) who has shown some signs of big-time power (he hit 37 homers in 124 minor league games in 2008). The feeling — and I’m in this camp — is that his great pitch recognition would translate really well to the big leagues … a younger Travis Hafner comes to mind.
Others, though, think that Kila is TOO patient, TOO passive, not aggressive enough, and that lack of aggression combined with a slowish bat does not project as an every day first baseman (especially because his glove seems quite a bit below average).
I don’t know who is right and who is wrong — but I do know this: The Royals refuse to give Ka’aihue a chance. They SAY he’s part of their future (and say it, and say it), but he’s 26 years old and absolutely nothing they DO suggests they really feel that way. In 2008, Kila hit .314/.456/.628 with those 37 home runs — one of the great minor league seasons in Royals history — and the Royals went out and got Mike Jacobs to play first base instead. A depressed Ka’aihue went back to the minors, struggled (though he walked 100 times), and he did not get a single big league at-bat in 2009.
Then, Ka’aihue had a great spring training this year (.347/.448/.673 with four homers) and was sent back down. He crushed the ball down in Omaha and finally got a call up — at which point he was given all of four major league at-bats before getting sent back down again. Four at-bats. He is now hitting .304/.459/.570 in Omaha.
The Royals will tell you that they simply don’t have a spot in the lineup for him — Billy Butler already plays first base and the Royals are paying Jose Guillen a lot of money to be the team’s DH. But my point here is not the Royals’ roster management but their judgment. My point here is that the Royals simply do not value Ka’aihue’s talent for getting on base, certainly not enough to find out what they have. They see those walks as more of a negative than a positive. They do not value his talents.
You know whose talents the Royals value? Scott Podsednik. He has been the Royals left-fielder and leadoff hitter all year. HIS OPS+ is 98, one of only two American League left fielders with a sub-100 OPS+. He has been caught stealing 11 times. He has only three homers all year and he has struck out almost twice as often as he has walked (54 strikeouts, 29 walks). His UZR and the John Dewan plus/minus both suggest he’s been well below average defensively in left.
But … well, as mentioned, he’s hitting .300. Meanwhile, down in Omaha, one-time Royals savior and newly minted left fielder Alex Gordon is hitting .320/.447/.577, has 13 homers in 66 games, has played well enough defensively that everyone seems to feel he would be fine in the big leagues … and even though he’s 26, and (you would hope) a part of this team’s future, and he cannot get the call up.
Then, there’s Jason Kendall. Oh. Jason Kendall. There is a Royals theme that has never quite become clear to me until Jason Kendall. Through all the years that I have followed the Kansas City Royals, they have had a knack for finding veterans who seem to intimidate everyone in the organization. Jason Kendall, at age 36, is on pace to start 155 games at catcher this year. I’m going to repeat that in italic letters just so you will know I’m not joking:
Jason Kendall, at age 36, is on pace to start 155 games at catcher this year.
As far as I can tell, the last player to catch more than 150 games in a season was Benito Santiago in 1991. The last to start 155 games at catcher? That would be Randy Hundley in 1968.
Now, this says two things. One, it says that Kendall really is a marvel of fitness and stubbornness … to physically be able to play that much and to mentally want to play that much is both remarkable and admirable. How can you not admire a 36-year-old man playing for a team going nowhere who refuses to come out of the lineup? It is inspiring in a way.
Two, though: What could the Royals possibly be thinking? Jason Kendall has an 80 OPS+. He has now gone 354 plate appearances without hitting a home run OR a triple … and if he can keep that up he will be in rarified air.
Most plate appearances in a season without a triple or home run (live ball era):
1. Frank Taveras, 598, 1980.
2. Jo-Jo Morrissey, 568, 1933.
3. Woody Williams, 534, 1945
4. Mike Tresh, 532, 1945
5. Ron Hunt, 531, 1972
Jason Kendall, 638, 2010 (projected)
Kendall’s on-base percentage is a barely league average .334 and yet he is now hitting second in the lineup. He has made nine errors and is barely throwing out a quarter of the stolen base attempts and the Royals pitching staff ERA is 13th in the league, which may not be his fault but he isn’t helping. And still he plays every … single … day. So what is it that Jason Kendall offers this team?
1. That much acclaimed “Veteran leadership.”
2. A tolerable looking .271 batting average.
The other day, on the Royals television broadcast, I heard my friends Ryan Lefebvre and Frank White say that, hey, in a tough season it’s a nice thing to be able to say that at least Kansas City leads the league in hitting. I understand and appreciate the point, but I disagree. I think a good batting average is empty if you don’t back it up with it up with other skills (such as taking walks, hitting with power, not giving away outs). I think batting average can be a very selfish stat. I think leading the league in hitting, if you allow it, will cover up a harsh reality*.
*The Royals — and maybe all bad teams are like this — have an amazing knack of closing their eyes to reality. For instance, they had a 50-game stretch this year where they won 27 and lost 23, a nice stretch that coincided with the hiring of new manager Ned Yost which seemed to give it added weight.
The trouble is … winning 27 of 50, while nice, doesn’t mean a whole lot in the larger picture. In 2007, the Royals had a 28-22 stretch … and lost 93 games. In 2002, the Royals had a 50-game stretch where they played .500 ball … and they lost 100 games. Bad teams still have stretches where they play moderately good baseball. Even the putrid 2005 Royals had a 52-game stretch where they went 25-27.
But the Royals took that 50-game stretch as a sign that this team is emerging … even leading Yost to say the Royals can contend this year. I understand that you are always looking to build on success — and you have to BELIEVE that you are contenders even if you aren’t — but it does seem that the Royals have a long history of declaring victory based on very shaky and minimal evidence. They have now lost six in a row and are trying to hold off the fifth place Indians.
The Royals’ future has some real promise — they have numerous promising players in the minor leagues who can, over the next two or three years, change the face of this franchise. I think Yost has energized this team … and I think his history of working with young players makes him a good candidate to become the Royals full-time manager.
But it seems to me that to get to the future, they have to leave behind the past. They need to get a lot younger. They need to walk more, hit with more power, give away fewer outs, and worry a whole lot less about their batting averages.
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And you didn’t even mention Yuniesky Betancourt! He of the seemingly-tolerable .260 batting average in 312 AB’s so far this season.
Of course, his OBP is a not-so-tolerable .282…which is the lowest OBP of any qualified SS in baseball.
Thanks Joe! I can’t believe I actually had some hope before the current 6 game skid, I was just ignoring the reality of baseball in KC. Or perhaps I was suffering from a new disease that until this year was foreign to most Americans: World Cup Fever.
I feel really bad for Royals fans; especially Royals fans that are sabermetrically inclined. If you didn’t know about OBP or SLG or UZR it would be easier to focus on AVG. I really feel for you; Joe, your writing is amazing.
But at least they keep giving us those t-shirts and bobblehead dolls and the all star game is coming and….
It’s just sad.
Dayton Moore’s worst move (why is it we always call him Dayton Moore, his full name, like he’s some sort of nobility, instead of just Moore?) by far has not been the Guillen signing or the Farnsworth signing or the Yuni signing or the Cruz signing, but signing Jacobs after the season Kila had in 2008. That was plain criminal.
The current losing streak will be a gift if it means they can no longer pretend there’s some hope for this year, trade some dead weight, and make room for the guys at Omaha.
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Russell Martin hasn’t technically caught 150 games in a season, in 2008 he played in 155 games – 149 at catcher, 11 at 3B, and 1 at DH (obviously with some overlap); he ended up with 4 more defensive innings played than Santiago in 1991.
…and I keep thinking about how well Buck is doin’ in Toronto… man.
Just when I was hopin’ the Royals issues may have been solved with a managerial change, they suddenly started looking more like the Keystone Cops again the past several games.
Maybe you can answer a question I keep asking myself the past few months – Why don’t the Royals trade Kila if they won’t use him? They could get something good for him, I’m sure. They must be getting offers here and there.
(why is it we always call him Dayton Moore, his full name, like he’s some sort of nobility, instead of just Moore?)
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Thats a solid observation. I never noticed it before, but everyone just subconsciously calls him by his full name.
Here is the remedy plan for JOPO’s diagnosis….trade Guillen and Posednik for whatever you can get at deadline (ham sandwich, new pine tar rag, bag of balls to be named later, etc)….then call up Gordon and stick him in left and call up Kila and DH him on extended tryout for both with eyes on 2011….then DFA Yuni and play Aviles at SS and share 2b between Getz and Bloomie…I would pay just to see what happens there…Also, can we get Moose Haas to throw out first picth when Moustakis and Hosmer both appear in the lineup together next year at some point?
Reading again about Ka’aihue and Gordon is so frustrating and sad. At what point can they ask the union to bring a grievance?
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i’m with jim @9,
but i fear we’ll only move one if any and Ankiel is taking the spot on the roster guaranteed. heaven help us.
He can’t afford the rich so he loads up on the poor, Dayton Moore, Dayton Moore ….
not to rain on the kila parade, but league average OPS at first base for 2009 was 0.851 (for 1b with a minimum of 350 PA). kila’s career MiLB OPS is .846, including .927 for 3 seasons in the hitter-friendly PCL. now, i understand the underlying point that kila would most likely be more valuable than mike jacobs and his .698 OPS in 2009, but kila would be nothing more than league average at best, most likely.
You’d think with a coach with a reputation of getting the most out of youngsters, you’d want to bring up, you know, the youngsters before his message gets stale.
Kila’s AAA stats over the past 3 years show that he should at least be given a chance. Why couldn’t he platoon at DH with Guillen, who will be gone soon anyway? The Royals’ 2010 season is another lost cause, so tell me why they shouldn’t give him a chance?
The Royals are obviously just blind to what wins games…scoring more runs than the opponent. Hits mean nothing if you don’t score. Why not bring up Gordon & Kila and give Pena a chance behind the plate. What’s the point of having young players with potential if all they do is toil in the minors or ride the bench behind overrated and underperforming veterans with meaningless batting averages?
Circle me, Hal Morris!
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The Pirates seem to be doing what the Royals should be trying, actually bringing their young guys up and letting them play. Sure they stink, but when they put together two decent games as they just did, at least there’s SOME hope.
jim @9, I will add on to that and say, DFA Betancourt, play Betemit at 3B, move Callapso to 2B and Aviles to SS. (btw, I don’t live in KC, did Betemit get hurt and it just isn’t being reported on any site I see or did he get lost during the All Star break, because it doesn’t appear he played this weekend)
Also, I don’t have a problem with Ankiel playing, as long as he is taking ABs from Maier in CF and not Kila at DH.
There is no reason not to trade Posednik and Guillen now. Really, this should be done this week. Posednik is an OK player (better than his OPS+ indicates, b/c OBP is more important than SLG and his poor OPS+ numbers are more reflective of zero power than anything else, you could do worse than having him lead off for your team) and there has to be some in-the-playoff-hunt team that needs an outfielder who can lead off. The White Sox come to mind as they have a shittier version of Posednik playing left field and leading off for them right now. (Pods OPS+ is 98, Juan Pierre’s is 67) And they love Posednik on the South Side.
As for Guillen, his power numbers should make him marketable somewhere. Probably an AL team, unless the NL teams don’t have scouts that have observed Jose’s imitation of a statue in RF, then maybe we can pawn him off to an NL team too. Let’s see, who needs a RF who can’t run and won’t walk, but will hit for some power and has a nice arm when he gets to the ball? How about the Rays, who seem to have a hole at DH on their team? It would probably be too much to ask for J.P. Howell back in return (yeah I know he is hurt, but we want him for next year anyway, not this year), but surely they have some young pitchers that could help us.
@ #14 – OPS is a good stat, but it tends to overvalue SLG, as opposed to OBP which is significantly more valuable. Kila’s OPS might be somewhat less than the average MLB first baseman, but that’s because most 1Bmen are power hitters first and foremost. He’ll be getting more of that OPS from on-base skills, which means he’d be a more productive hitter than you might think.
Now, will Kila be a star? Probably not. But he could probably be an everyday player on a good team, and he’s probably better than what the Royals are running out there now.
@16/kevin: What? And lose Brayan Pena’s glove in the bullpen?!
They cant trade Guillen or Pods because nobody besides DM wants them, ubt DM doesnt want to look bad (especially on Guillen’s case) by just dumping him. So, the Royals suffer for DM’s pride.
There’s no point in getting hits if their base-running is going to be so pathetic. It’s like they’re trying to prove Dusty Baker right by clogging up the bases and not scoring. I’m so sick of them loading up the bases and ending up without any runs to show for it.
As a fan of the Tigers, I’m glad Dayton Moore and his process are in the AL Central.
Boggling. Why not play the kids? They may yet surprise you. With Guillen, Kendall, Yuni, and Podsednik, you already know what you’re gonna get, and it ain’t exactly ” pony at Christmastime” fun.
Sunk costs, man… you’re paying those four guys anyway, so pay them to sit. Pay some other team to take them off your hands in exchange for something, anything. Just don’t pay them AND the prospects whose careers you’re killing. I mean, why did they draft Gordon and Kila? To never know what they could have done, or to see what they can do?
Let them play! Let them play! Let them play!
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As a Cleveland fan, I’m getting a little tired of all these whiny Royals articles.
We aren’t getting the discredit we deserve, and it’s time Joe stepped up to the plate.
The really illuminating (while terrifying) part of all this is that Dayton Moore was EVERYONES top pick, league wide, as the best up and coming GM prospect! How can ALL of baseball be SO wrong? Maybe these so called experts are only considered experts because someone has given them a chance in the good ‘ole boys club. It’s all who you know and who you blow. No real skills or talent required, just connections please…
CF @14: Ian’s rebuttal @21 was spot on about how the OPS stats you cite undervalue Ka’aihue’s skill set a good deal. But even if that wasn’t the case, by your own admission the Royals have kept a guy in Omaha for most of the last three years even though he would be, in your words, a “league average” first baseman in the big leagues, while giving about thousand plate appearances at 1B and DH to the likes of Mike Jacobs, Ross Gload, Mark Teahen, Ryan Shealy, Willie Bloomquist and the ’08 and ’09 versions of Jose Guillen. Last year the Royals’ first basemen had an OPS+ of 97. Their DH’s OPS+ was an appalling 67, yet Ka’aihue didn’t get called up for a single game. In ’08 those figures were 77 and 94, respectively, yet Ka’aihue got the grand total of 24 plate appearances. And not only have the Royals not played Kila, but they also haven’t traded him to someone who would value his skills, meaning they’ve received virtually no value in return for his fabulous performances in the minors. How can you look at any of that information and not concede that their handling of Ka’aihue has been an absolute disaster?
Wow, the people who run the Royals really ARE as incompetent as the people who run the Mets, if they’re hanging their hat on batting average like that. Team run scoring doesn’t correlate well with batting average at all, it correlates much better with (to pick a stat that’s easily understood and accessible) OPS. (See, for example, last year’s Mets.)
But if Kila Ka’aihue isn’t in the Royals’ plans, wouldn’t they have traded him by now?
And with minor league numbers like that, why wouldn’t another team try to get Kila Ka’aihue?
I’m assuming that Pods gets dealt this month, and that the Royals bring up Gordon. At least that’s what I’m assuming for the purposes of my fantasy team…
@20 – Remember that the Rays have one of the smartest front offices in baseball. Unlike the Royals, they do know what wins baseball games. They would never give up anything of value for Jose Guillen, let alone for Guillen and his $12 million salary.
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Re: #14′s comments about league average
I’m not going to dispute the notion that Kila’s best case scenario is probably somewhere around league average, but I do think that some people underestimate the value of a league average player. Good teams have league average players at a lot of positions, and it would be significantly better than what the Royals have gotten out of the DH the last two seasons (an OBP barely above .300, which is crazy when you think that a DH’s job is solely to hit).
Anyway, #14 didn’t say there was anything wrong with league average, so I don’t mean to dump on that post. But I do think there is a tendency by some fans to dismiss anyone that doesn’t blossom into superduperstar (ie – Alex Gordon) as a complete bust unworthy of a major-league roster spot.
I find your lack of faith in the process disturbing.
It’s surprising (to me) that batting average doesn’t have a greater correlation with winning. Don’t get me wrong; I fully understand the weaknesses of the statistic. However, I remember reading a post on here a while back where Joe looked at a team’s winning percentage when they have more hits than their opponent or when they hit three or more home runs and concluded that teams have a greater chance of winning the game when they record more hits.
One would think that the team that leads the league in hitting (here, the Royals) would outhit their opponents more often than not and thus have that increased chance of winning.
OBP would certainly play an important role here – even though the Royals collect more hits per at bat than other teams, they probably have fewer at bats per game because they don’t get on base by other methods.
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As someone who aspires to saber-novice status, I’ll readily concede that the Royals’ high average is a mask for their offensive struggles.
However, I do think that leading the league in batting average (even if it’s only through the All Star Break) is an accomplishment for two reasons:
1. When was the last time the Royals led the league in ANY statistical category? (other that strikeouts, errors, and other “negative” categories).
2. What would the Royals record be if they were hitting the league average (.259) or something closer to the .236 that Houston is putting up?
Obviously, there is more work to be done on offense, defense, and on the mound. You’ll notice the the title of this entry is “Diary of Losing team”, and not something like “Ned’s right: Why KC is a contender”.
Thank you for the post Joe. Hopefully Moore gives in to the pressure that he has to be feeling from both the regular fans and the medie and makes some needed changes. Like most of the rest of Royal nation, I am tired of the wait until next year (or the eight years “the process” is supposed to take) approach. I want to see a team that makes at least small headway right now. With both Moose and Hoss being promoted recently it seems that they are destined for the majors within the next two years. Hey Dayton, maybe we could have a team for them to come to rather than the disaster you have put together for the past three years. I would also like to see players like Grienke, Butler, Soria and DeJesus who have suffered with this joke look at that light at the end of the tunnel and not cringe because they know its a train headed for them. Lets give longsuffering fans and worthwhile players some hope before you lose them all. Get rid of the bums (Ican think of at least five), that is a good first move. Show us you can build a major league squad that rivals some of the minor league teams.
I agree with basically the whole post (the Ka’aihue and Gordon stories are some of the most depressing in the league this year), but I will say that knocking Kendall for “barely throwing out a quarter of the stolen base attempts” is a mite harsh. He’s 29/105 (i.e., 27.6%) in throwing runners out, which is right around league average (it’s better than Kurt Suzuki, at least… and you should check out Ryan Doumit!).
@37 Richard Iurilli:
Here are some interesting tidbits about the correlations of batting average to winning…
1. Only 1 team since the 2000s began has led MLB in batting average…and went on to win the World Series (the 2002 Angels).
2. However, the majority of teams that did lead MLB in batting average did make the playoffs:
2009: Angels (.599% – lost in ALCS)
2008: Rangers (.488% – no playoffs)
2007: Yankees (.580% – lost in ALDS)
2006: Twins (.593% – lost in ALDS)
2005: Red Sox (.586% – lost in ALDS)
2004: Angels (.568% – lost in ALDS)
2003: Red Sox (.586% – lost in ALCS)
2002: Angels (.611% – won World Series)
2001: Rockies (.451% – no playoffs)
2000: Rockies (.506% – no playoffs)
3. So the Royals, if they maintain their position atop the batting average category, are on pace to have by far the worst winning percentage of any team since the 2000s, as they currently stand at .429%.
4. The Royals are the only team amongst the top 10 in batting average this season to be below .500. The next team below .500 to appear on the highest average list would be the Brewers (12th best average and a .452 win%).
5. And looking at that 12th position, you have teams like the Cards (13th best average/.554%), Braves (14th best average/.587%), White Sox (15th best average/.549%), Rays (19th best average/.604%), Mets (20th best average/.533%), Angels (22nd best average/.526%), Phillies (23rd best average/.527%) and finally, the Padres (24th best average/.593%).
So overall, the case is for batting average going both ways, that it just doesn’t correlate with winning.
In Colorado these days we are playing just about everyone at first base (Helton, Giambi, Melvin Mora, Brad Hawpe, Brad Eldred). I’m pretty sure Tracy might throw a fan out there sometime. I mean, the other day Chris Iannetta (a catcher) was playing third. And watching Mora pretend to play first just makes me think that somewhere in our organization there must be a good young 1B player (Eldred might be it). Anyway, and then I think about Ka’aihue and want the Rockies to trade for him. The Royals can have Giambi and Helton. That’s two guys that do seem to fit the process.
Oh, and can we have Greinke too? Someone tell Olivo to make some phone calls.
To anyone curious, here’s what the league leaders in OBP% have done in the 2000s (this is mostly a Yankees/Red Sox party):
2009: Yankees (.636% – won World Series)
2008: Red Sox (.586% – lost in ALCS)
2007: Yankees (.580% – lost in ALDS)
2006: Yankees (.599% – lost in ALDS)
2005: Red Sox (.586% – lost in ALDS)
2004: Red Sox (.605% – won World Series)
2003: Red Sox (.586% – lost in ALCS)
2002: Yankees (.640% – lost in ALDS)
2001: Mariners (.716% – lost in ALCS)
2000: Indians (.556% – no playoffs)
So 9 of 10 teams made the playoffs and the one that didn’t (2000 Indians) won 90 games. 2 of the MLB OBP% leaders won the World Series and there also was the MLB regular season wins leader in the 2001 Seattle team represented in this group.
Joe, great article as always! I can sum it up in a nutshell by saying that the Royals’ problems are all Dayton Moore’ fault. Rather than re-building the team the right way, Moore has signed re-treads and traded away good players. He has compounded his problems by making mistake upon mistake, leaving us with one of the worst baseball teams in the major leagues. I’m afraid he’s the problem and not the solution.
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Man, the Royals have only had 1 season in the 2000s (2003) in which they ranked average or better (15th or higher) in Runs, OBP% and OPS%…
2010: 22nd in Runs, 12th in OBP (.335%), 16th in OPS (.738)
2009: 23rd in Runs, 26th in OBP (.318), 24th in OPS (.724)
2008: 25th in Runs, 26th in OBP (.320), 25th in OPS (.717)
2007: 27th in Runs, 26th in OBP (.322), 29th in OPS (.710)
2006: 20th in Runs, 19th in OBP (.332), 26th in OPS (.743)
2005: 21st in Runs, 28th in OBP (.320), 26th in OPS (.714)
2004: 21st in Runs, 24th in OBP (.322), 27th in OPS (.720)
2003: 7th in Runs, 12th in OBP (.336), 11th in OPS (.763)
2002: 16th in Runs, 20th in OBP (.323), 23rd in OPS (.721)
2001: 23rd in Runs, 29th in OBP (.318), 25th in OPS (.727)
2000: 9th in Runs, 12th in OBP (.348), 18th in OPS (.773)
Sad…
Understanding the budget constraints make not having Ka’aihue and Gordon on the 25-man squad really stupid. Know a lot more about Gordon after drafting him in roto. If you’re the Royals, what are your expectations such that you won’t give Gordon a full season at 3b and then make a decision?
As to Ka’aihue, how can any sane baseball guy allow as bad a guy as Guillen to block a potential like that? Cannot say Ka’aihue is the 2nd coming of Wade Boggs, but that’s kind of why Boggs didn’t get to the majors until about the same age. Arguably Ka’aihue would have more power, but same idea-great plate discipline being disparaged by baseball oldtimers who poormouth SABR talk. A walk is never a bad thing.
When you combine it with Kendall and Guillen holding those spots, becomes even more perplexing. There has to be a better option than Kendall at catcher, even if it’s a defense-first minor league catcher. These are the kinds of things bad teams do-overpay for overvalued veterans.
Who should go:1) Betancourt (he can only move two steps in any direction and simply drops the ball tooooo much, i.e. the double play ball with Grinke on the mound.) 2) Posednik (He didn’t even try to throw home with a SLOW runner trying to score last night) 3) Jose ( can’t run or hit….why is he on the team…eat his contract)
The Royals aren’t going anywhere this year so quit pretending. Bring up the young guys and let them get some major league experience.
Joe, you should be the Royals GM.
National buzz would be created, fresh, forward thinking would be instilled in the front office and winning might occur. And right now we’re in “winning probably won’t, but maybe, naah, probably won’t” occur mode.
But the reason the Royals wouldn’t even consider it has been covered by you in previous posts: they fear looking foolish. The Royals would prefer looking professional while losing than risk the appearance of professionalism in an outside-the-box quest for winning.
But I hope it somehow someday happens. I really want to read the ensuing book.
The Royals team OPS is currently at .738.
The Giants are at .733. The Mets are at .718. The Marlins are also at .718. The Padres have a team OPS of .705.
And every one of those teams has scored more runs than the Royals. Apparently not running into outs actually kind of matters. Who knew?
@Greg T
“why is it we always call him Dayton Moore, his full name, like he’s some sort of nobility, instead of just Moore?”
i’m partial to the abbreviation GMDM.
has a nice ring to it.
Not Dayton Moore, or just Moore, or GMDM.
It’s Dayton MOOREON!
To: management@royals.com
please study up on “sunk cost”. Then study up on “opportunity cost”.
CF@14, the real question is: how do you build a winning offense in MLB today? Yes, how much offense you need depends on how much defense and pitching you have, but there are some constants. And no constant has been more obvious to me since Manny became a Dodger than pitches per at bat. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers take so many pitches and walks that they were warned by the commish that their games took too long. But that’s not the point. The point is: most MLB teams have their best five pitchers start the game. Their sixth best pitcher finishes the game. Every at bat you can get against somebody else is playing your varsity against their JV (bullpens, ballparks, and defenses vary, of course).
What the high pitch/AB teams accomplish is get starting pitchers out of the game earlier than everybody else. The difference in runs scored when a starter finished five innings versus when a starter finished seven isn’t just because starters need to pitch better to finish seven innings. It’s also because most teams have their 8th, 9th, 10th best pitchers handle the sixth and seventh innings. Those are the guys you want to hit against. And it’s a bit of a vicious circle. Probably some of why they’re back of the bullpen pitchers is good stuff, bad control. I mean, almost nobody can survive in the majors with bad stuff even if they put it where they want it. There has to be some break or some zip on it. So you start throwing guys without the best K/W ratios out there against a team that forces a lot of pitches, and then you factor in umpire prejudice against wild pitchers, and suddenly you add a few runs before getting to the setup man, and a close game is now a blowout.
All of which circles back to KC. They don’t force a lot of pitches. They’re up there, well, hacking isn’t the right word given their lack of power. They’re up there dinging. So they have to face a lot of innings against the other team’s starting pitcher, who is supposed to be tough to hit. Whereas a guy like Kila would force lots of pitches. He walks instead of singles for his OBP. And you know, singles are worth more than walks, in a vacuum. But walks eat up pitches. And that’s where the best offenses in baseball win games: strategically, they force the other team to play its worst pitchers through patience. And the Royals are not patient at all.
I’m reminded of a few years back when Ken Phelps, a high walk high power low BA guy, was stuck behind Alvin Davis and Edgar Martinez for seemingly forever. Funny, but he was also drafted by the Royals. He finally got a shot, and did pretty good for a while, but you don’t build a solid MLB resume when the first season you get with more than 400 PA comes when you’re 32 years old. That’s supposedly past his prime. It was also the fourth straight season he had an OPS+ over 100, and for his career his OPS+ was 132 (excellent), his OBP was .374 (also excellent) and his OPS was .854. Does that sound like Kila or what? As his B-R line says, “Better Career OPS+ than Jim Rice, Rod Carew, Wade Boggs, Roberto Clemente, Eddie Murray, Carl Yastrzemski, Sammy Sosa, Andre Dawson, Roger Maris, Don Mattingly, George Sisler, Jay Buhner, Brian Holman, Cecil Cooper,”. Do you think those are numbers that might just help the Royals. Shame it will take Kila getting seven minor league seasons in, and then becoming a minor league free agent,before some team that appreciates walks will give him a chance. I just hope the Angels steal him while he’s undervalued to replace Kendry Morales, else the Rangers will run away with the West.
You’re missing the point, Joe: It’s the year of the pitcher. The Royals are simply unlucky…………………………………………………
[...] Joe Posnanski » Blog Archive » Diary of a Losing team: Batting Champs [...]
@20…an outfield choice of starting Juan Pierre or Scotty Pods?
As a White Sox fan, the only rational option at that point would be to light myself on fire.
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Is there any way we could unofficially demote Dayton to Director of Player Development? Sorta like Milton from Office Space, just give him a “better” office and tell him to concentrate on identifying the best prospects for the system. He can keep his title, and the paycheck too. It’s a sunk cost.
Remember at the end of the Blues Brothers, at the end of the big chase scene (110 miles in, what, 9 hours?). The Brothers get out of the car, and it falls apart? Elwood quietly removes his hat in reverence.
That’s what will happen this September to Jason Kendall. He will literally collapse into 100 pieces, and whoever’s pitching will quietly remove his cap.
You know, 7th in the AL in OBP actually seems pretty good for KC. Its middle of the pack, but middle of the pack in the most important offensive stat seems pretty impressive for this team. For all the reputation of ineptitude that they have, they’ve actually fielded a decent OBP team. The only AL teams in front of them are Yanks, BoSox, Twins, Rangers, Rays, and Tigers. They are significantly closer to first place on OBP than last place
Yanks – .354
KC – .335
Seattle – .306
I’m not saying 7th place in OBP is going to be enough to win the division, but it should be good enough to go over .500. For an inept small market team, its surprisingly good. The six teams in front of them are good teams that are close to the top of their divisions, and they are actually ahead of the ChiSox, who currently lead the division.
So why are they losing games? Based entirely on OBP, I would expect them to be over .500, closer to Minnesota and Detroit than Cleveland. As it stands, they are only 1.5 games over Cleveland, and 8.5 behind detroit and Minn. How the White Sox are winning is a whole different quesiton.
Joe, I guess the point of my comment above @ 62 is that we can rag on the Royals for all kinds of ineptitude, but BA and OBP are actually not their bigest problems. Sure its backwards to prioritize BA over OBP, but they are good/decent in both of these categories. For that matter, they are middle of the pack in SLG too. Offense is NOT their problem
I think you should focus your criticisms on the weakest aspect of KC’s game, which is their abominable pitching.
Please hand deliver this to Dayton and make him read it 50 times.
On why people say “Dayton Moore” instead of Moore–it’s fairly common when somebody has a distinctive first name and a common last name to use the first. We have about five hundred athletes in our head at any given moment, so we’ll talk about Lebron and Kobe instead of James and Bryant. We’ll use last names where there’s no possible confusion: Ginobili, Jeter, Utley, Pujols, Youkilis. But ARod instead of the common Rodriguez, Pedro instead of Martinez.
Moore is a common name, but nobody’s going to call a baseball GM just by his first name, so Dayton Moore it is.
i recall a bill james article/essay from 20 YEARS ago describing the exact same problem with the Royals, namely that they seldom take a pitch let alone a walk. he quoted buddy biancalana as saying something along the lines of “the veterans here frown on people not swinging away.” it just does not make logical sense that one organization with no obvious person/people in charge for the last 20-30 years can have the same inability to take a walk and increase one’s on base average and thus increase one’s runs created
As a Brewers fan, I feel for you…I spent the last two years of my life watching Jason Kendall catch 151 and 134 games (with Yost as his manager when he caught 151 in ’08). It was inexplicable. He caught day games after night games, games the day after extra inning games, you name it. And all with a .246/.327/.324 line. Yost will fall for the “gritty battlers” and play them day after day despite all evidence pointing to the fact that they suck, or at the very least, could use a day off.
I, for one, am absurdly glad for this Royals bad stretch. When they went through the 10-3 stretch before the all star break, Moore and Yost were giddy, talking about getting back in the race and being one week away. That was, of course preposterous. Moore cannot handle a little success. He spoke of an 18-11 start throughout the following 5 months of bad baseball in 2009, as if the other 5 months were the fluke.
Hey, when you’ve watched this much bad baseball, seeing 2 weeks of good ball makes it look like a friendly girl in the bar at 2:00 in the morning. But you are not going to marry that girl, and seeing this team sober and in the light of day will hopefully pull his focus back to the future where it belongs.
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