Joe Nathan, Minnesota
Posted: March 9th, 2010 | Filed under: Baseball | 40 Comments »
March 9, 2010
Player of the Day: Joe Nathan, pitcher, Minnesota.
OK, before we get to the heart of the matter – and the elbow of Joe Nathan – it’s probably worthwhile to show you a few numbers that could blow your mind. Here are Joe Nathan’s statistics against the other four teams in the American League Central:
Kansas City Royals: 3-0, 0.85 ERA, 35 saves, team hitting .144 against him.
Detroit Tigers: 2-1, 1.55 ERA, 30 saves, team hitting .153 against him.
Chicago White Sox: 3-2, 2.06 ERA, 24 saves, team hitting .151 against him.
Cleveland Indians: 3-1, 2.98 ERA, 26 saves, team hitting .201 against him.
And here is how some of the biggest stars of the division have hit against Nathan over the last six years:
Grady Sizemore: 0-for-15 with 7 strikeouts.
Miguel Cabrera: 0-for-8 with 4 strikeouts.
Frank Thomas: 0-for-7 with 6 strikeouts.
Miguel Olivo: 0-for-8 with 6 strikeouts.
Reggie Sanders: 0-for-12 with 6 strikeouts.
Juan Uribe: 0-for-10 with 5 strikeouts.
Alberto Callaspo: 0-for-9 with 2 strikeouts.
Jose Guillen, 0-for-6 with 2 strikeouts.
Admittedly, yeah, the last few there are not stars or even close to stars, but, well, there aren’t that many non-Minnesota hitting stars in the American League Central. If you want, you can add in Manny Ramirez (0-for-7 with 5 Ks), Raul Ibanez (0-for-6 with 3 Ks), Ian Kinsler (0-for-6 with 1 K) and so on. There are more than 200 players who have gotten at least 2 plate appearances against Nathan and have not managed a hit.
And all that gets us to the point, which is this: NOBODY is going to replace Joe Nathan as closer for Minnesota, not if you understand the word “replace” to mean “fill the role.” Nobody. If Nathan’s torn ulnar collateral ligament leads to surgery – Nathan insists he will pitch through the injury it if at all possible – then he will be out for the season. And if he is out for the season, then the Twins will have myriad options for the ninth inning.
— They could give the job to Jon Rauch, the 31-year-old skyscraper who at 6-foot-11 looks like a closer, and who did the job passably with Washington for a while. He’s your experience candidate.
— Jose Mijaries, 25 years old, is the youth candidate. He has a great arm, and he pitched well last season; he was especially good in key moments. The league hit just .169 off him in high leverage situation – those situations when the game was most on the line.
— Longtime Nathan setup men Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier are the “don’t change horses in mid-stream” candidate. Crain is 28, Guerrier is 31 – both have been good and shaky in their time with the Twins. Guerrier, unlike Crain, was good last year; he led the league in appearances and had the best WHIP of his career (.969 walks and hits per inning pitched). Neither candidate will excite anyone.
— Pat Neshek is the surprise candidate. Neshek was terrific in the Twins bullpen in 2006 and 2007 before he underwent Tommy John surgery. He has not thrown a pitch in a big league game since May of 2008, though the hope is that he’s healthy again.
— Francisco Liriano is the hope and change candidate. He was electrifying in 2006 as a 22-year-old. He went 12-3, struck out about 11 batters per nine innings, was often unhittable. And then he hurt his elbow, got Tommy John surgery, and he has never been the same. Last year, he was 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA and he gave up 147 hits in 136 2/3. There is this lingering hope among some that maybe in the pen, Liriano could regain his magic. The Twins would have to go out and get another starter – maybe someone like Jarrod Washburn – but it’s at least a possibility.
There are probably other options that I’m not even considering – don’t be surprised if the Twins go closer by committee until one pitcher emerges naturally. Still, the one certainty is that whatever substitute the Twins find, he won’t be Joe Nathan. So what does it all mean? Well, people have different feelings about the importance of closers. Many people inside baseball think a good closer is absolutely crucial to a team’s success. Look at Rivera. Look at Papelbon. Look at Nathan. It is true that just about every team that wins a World Series has a strong closer.
Others think that the closer role, while important, is probably overrated. There is a point to that. Look at the Philadelphia Phillies.
In 2008, the Phillies were second in the league in runs scored, and fourth in ERA, and closer Brad Lidge was virtually unhittable – he saved 41 games in 41 opportunities. He finished fourth in the MVP balloting.
In 2009, the Phillies were first in the league in runs scored, sixth in ERA, and closer Brad Lidge was a fiasco – he was 0-8, with a catastrophic 7.21 ERA and 11 blown saves.
The Phillies won one more game in 2009 than they did in 2008.
So, yes, there are arguments both ways. It’s difficult to say just how much the Twins will be hurting without Nathan’s dominance and his aura of invincibility inside the division. I have long talked about how much I think of manager Ron Gardenhire and his ability to improvise. Let’s face it: Last year, the Twins were without Joe Mauer for the first month and Justin Morneau for the last, and their starters ERA was 4.84. But they still won the division. So, yeah, it’s hard to say what the Twins will come up with.
What you can say is that, even before this injury, the Twins issue coming into 2010 was their pitching. The rotation – with Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano, and Liriano – seems to lack a true No. 1 starter. There may not be a true No. 2 starter in there.
Most people still picked the Twins because their offense should score a bunch of runs – they were fourth in the league in runs scored and added Orlando Hudson, J.J. Hardy and Jim Thome – and their bullpen, with Nathan playing the starring role, would make up for it. Now, with Nathan potentially out of the picture, it’s different. The American League Central has a bunch of flawed teams. The White Sox offense still looks one dimensional – homer or nothing – and the Tigers could have trouble scoring runs, and the Indians and Royals need a lot of things to go right.
But with Nathan hurting, there is definitely a new wind of hope blowing through the American League Central. Combined, the Indians, Tigers, Royals and White Sox hit .161 against Joe Nathan. They’ll be happy to take their swings against someone else.
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circle me aj pierzynski
Always love a good “Wag The Dog” reference
Although I guess it was a phrase before that movie ever used it. Oh well.
The Indians are now officially grouped with the Royals.
*cries*
Joe,
Please give us your initial reaction to the Jason Kendall’s ex-wife, he is abusing performance enhancing drugs story.
thanks
When’s the last time Nathan got anyone on the Yankees out when it mattered? ’03? ’04? ’09? Yep, never. Same as it ever was…ok ’03 he was still with the Giants, but he blew it against the Marlins too.
AJ… what does that have to do with anything? Two of his three worst outings of last year were against the Yankees. This does not reflect one bit on his talent level.
[...] was one of the best closers in the National League in the first half of 2008 (he wasn’t merely “passable” as some have suggested). Which brings me to the second reason why I like Rauch as Minny’s [...]
Jeff, I am suggesting that failures in playoff series do reflect on his talent level.
1. True, nobody can actually replace Joe Nathan (except Mariano Rivera but that ain’t happening)
2. Now is the time for the Twins to bring up their AAA closer, Rob Delaney. He’s good, and I think he’ll be able to fill the shoes of the closer role better than any of the guys you just mentioned. I’ve seen this guy pitch most of last summer.
The White Sox offense still looks one dimensional – homer or nothing – ….
So you’re saying we have a chance?
too tired/lazy to do it myself-was the entire phillies bullpen worse last year, or just the brand name (lidge)? it’s not a stretch to claim that although one single guy may not make or break the ‘pen, overall ‘pen performance is very important. the relevance here being, although it may not hurt to lose an elite closer, it definitely hurts to lose the depth in your bullpen. your 8th inning guy is your closer, and your non-factor is mopping up pavano’s mess with one out in the 6th.
Ahhh, the ever-weakening chain of relievers…
Nick Punto is always a possibility.
I suspect I’m not the only one to point it out, but although the Phillies won one more game in ’09, they won one more World Series in ’08.
Brad Lidge was a 4.2 WARP1 player in 2008 and a -3.9 player in ’09—eight wins difference. (Or 7.6 WXRL in ’08, -3.3 WXRL in ’09, for eleven wins.) That a team could otherwise improve by nine (or twelve) wins isn’t terribly surprising (although at the time signing Raul Ibanez wasn’t thought to be a good first step in that direction), so for the moment let’s cabin off that part of the argument.
A pretty good predictor of a team’s regular season record is its pythagorean differential, or the square of runs-scored divided by the square of the sum of runs-scored and runs-allowed. The additional runs allowed by a closer having a bad year, even adjusted for leverage, can be made up elsewhere pretty easily. Pythag is not a good predictor of post-season success, however; in fact, almost nothing is. But what Nate Silver discovered in his “secret sauce” article is that closer quality is a fairly good predictor of playoff success, along with power pitching in the rotation (normalized K/9) and team defense (FRAA, although I would guess defensive efficiency and PADE would work as well). As I recall Silver’s analysis (my paraphrase; I apologize for any errors), all the other team stats that were tested did not show significance that distinguished them from statistical noise. Isolated power, for instance, surely has something to do with winning ballgames, but in the available data it’s just not present to a degree of confidence. Note, of course, that all three “secret sauce” stats are associated with run prevention, rather than run creation.
So what you have is a rough statistical basis confirming the conventional wisdom of baseball people, or a rare alignment of ball Moneyball and Men at Work schools of baseball: Scoring more runs than you give up wins games in the regular season, but preventing runs (pitching and defense, in the old formulation) wins in October.
Two observations: First, Brad Lidge had a huge impact on the Phillies in ’09, between four and eight games by his lonesome, and another four games by Manuel’s refusal to bench him for a replacement-level reliever. It’s just that somewhere in the difference between an ’08 team that scored 4.9 runs a game and an ’09 team that scored 5.1, that difference got hidden. Second, while a team can win more games by improving either the run-scoring or run-prevention side of its game, only the run-prevention side has a measurable effect on the regular season and the post-season, which seems somehow more compelling in light of Theo Epstein’s decision to emphasize pitching and defense this off-season.
Agree with AJ @ #9.
When your job is to get outs in high-leverage situations and you show a pattern of failing in the very highest-leverage situations I don’t think you can be considered great at the job.
I don’t find the small sample size argument persuasive when it comes to Nathan (or Hoffman) because the job of a closer is to dominate small samples.
I agree with AJ too. The Twins should find a closer who can get the Yankees out. If that happens to be some rookie who appears on the scene suddenly (see Bobby Jenks ’05 or Adam Wainwright ’06), then so be it. The division can be won with a closer by committee or some other guy who may or may not be that great. But the biggest obstacle to the Twins ultimate success the last several years is getting drubbed by the Yankees in the playoffs. They need a closer who can help overcome that obstacle
Go figure, isn’t it just the rule of thumb that the Twins have one devastating injury a year?
I don’t think you can question Nathan’s success as a closer based on his post season record. Sure, Rivera has more post season saves than anyone. But there was Arizona and Boston that wrecked even him. It happens. Happened to Papelbon too. Rivera is the best all time. But Nathan’s stats put him in the same category. He will be hard to replace.
Bummer. Just, bummer.
Some people remember the blown saves, I think about the guy that was the 2nd best RP in the majors over the last 5 or so years. It astounds me that people question Nathan and his ability to help this team win (but I get why some people concentrate on the failures vs the Yankees – I just don’t agree). This is probably 4 wins they’ll need to figure out how to replace (or something like that).
I really hope they don’t trade prospects for a “closer”. They have plenty of arms, what they might lack is a guy that has the confidence to pitch the 9th.
I hope they give some of the young guys a shot (though that is not at all Gardy’s way, not at all). I hope they go bullpen by committee, and Mijares faces lefties, and whomever (Nesheck would be nice) righties. I hope they have their best RP facing the hardest part of the order in the 7-9th innings, and don’t save him for the 9th when the 7-9 hitters are coming up (I hated that – if Nathan is your best RP, and the 3-5 hitters are coming up in the 8th, why do you save him for the 9th, why?).
But, I think Gardy will pick a veteran, and have that guy close, and the Twins will need to score more runs…..
Losing Nathan is a blow. But at the end of the day, his save percentage is no better than Eddie Guardado’s when he was with the Twins.
Yeah, they might not be able to find someone as dominant as Nathan, but since Gardy refused to use him in high leverage situations unless it was the ninth inning with a slim lead, it’s very possible the Twins will find someone who will be just as effective.
I just want to throw out the possibility of adding someone from outside of the organization with closing experience. Please tell me if I’m wrong but a certain Mr. Smoltz is still out there.
Joe – I think you are forgetting about Brian Duensing as the Twins fifth starter. By most accounts, he’s got a better shot at winning the fifth spot in the rotation, which would leave Fransisco as a better candidate for the closing role.
Great to see the Neshek reference. Minny has been thinking about him as a closer for quite a while. I wonder how he’s doing throwing the ball.
i undesrtand the brad lidge point to an extent, but part of me also looks at it as if maybe the team finishing near where they were the year before was the dissapointment. maybe they were a 100 win team last year that just won 92(or whatever).
Also, I would like to just champion the point of this article. joe nathan might be rough against the yankees in the playoffs, but thats September’s problem. playoffs first. And he would be darn helpful getting there.
[...] without a proven closer less than a month from Opening. Joe Nathan. He'd been at the No. 1 closerJoe Nathan – Twins reliever Joe Nathan has been diagnosed with a torn ligament in his right elbow, leaving the [...]
If the White Sox are homer or nothing, they will probably be nothing. HR hitters Dye and Thome are gone and no one left who is reliable.
The Twins lost 2 of the 3 games to the Yankees without Joe Nathan even being involved. Did he fail to get the job done in Game 2, yes, but so did every other playoff closer at least once (except Rivera). Their real problem is a lack of good starting pitching (and while the starters actually pitched decent against the Yankees…well, some of them anyway, like Blackburn…they didn’t go too deep into the game. Which is pretty much the Yankee M.O.)
Anyway, as far as the Central goes, I think I’m going to pick the White Sox to win the division. I just don’t like the Twins starting pitching, at all, but their offense made me lean toward them. I don’t like the White Sox offense but their pitching is good.
#20: Because that’s how they all do it. Realistically, I agree with you…I don’t think closers are used properly. Oftentimes the 9th inning with a 1-3 run lead isn’t the best situation to be bringing them into. But it’s unlikely anyone is going to change anytime soon. The closers would be angry that they aren’t getting their saves (which can nonsensically hurt their future value), the fans would riot the first time a closer enters in the 8th to get the heart of the order and the next best guy gives up the lead in the 9th. I think it’s stupid, but there you go.
“I have long talked about how much I think of manager Ron Gardenhire and his ability to improvise. Let’s face it: Last year, the Twins were without Joe Mauer for the first month and Justin Morneau for the last, and their starters ERA was 4.84. But they still won the division.”
I know this isn’t a post about Ron Gardenhire, but I have to comment on this.
I find this argument wholly unconvincing. For one thing, I think we can all agree that the Twins won the Central simply because the Tigers fell apart down the stretch. Yes the Twins had to win some games of their own, but if the Tigers play just .500 ball down the stretch the Twins are done.
And secondly, yes Mauer was out for the first month of the season, but for the rest of the season he was the best player in all of baseball (if you want to say Pujols was better, I would argue that Mauer being a catcher makes him more valuable). Does that have anything to do with Gardenhire? I would argue no.
I know you love Gardenhire, but this argument did nothing for me. Mauer was out for a month, but for the rest of the year he was unbelievable. Losing Morneau hurt, but the last month of the season was only set up by the Tigers’ collapse. And starter’s ERA doesn’t do anything for me without context. How does that compare with other teams, specifically the Tigers? Again, I know this wasn’t a Gardenhire post, but that paragraph bothered me as being lazy, from a writer who usually is not.
Regarding Brad Lidge: if you switched his 2008 and 2009 seasons around, the 2009 Phillies are a 100-win team and the 2008 Phillies finish in second place behind the Mets and behind the Brewers in the Wild Card race, as well. Goodbye World Series. As a Mets fan I dream of this scenario every single day. (Also, if you trade Billy Wagner for Brad Lidge prior to 2008, the Mets win the division by a 2006-like margin, making 2007 a ridiculous fluke).
So, yes, I do think a closers performance is at least slightly important.
I guess Yankee fans are hoping the Dbacks or the Indians don’t face the Yankees in the playoffs, since Mariano has “proven” he can’t get it done against those teams in high leverage situations in the playoffs.
Kyle,
You said that,
“so did every other playoff closer at least once (except Rivera). ”
Remember when the Red Sox became the first team to come back from an 0-3 deficit in the 2004 ALCS? Mariano Rivera was the one who blew that Game Four.
He also blew the biggest game of them all – Game 7 of the 2001 World Series.
Okay…I was talking about last year…I kind of thought that was obvious by the tone of the conversation and me specifically mentioning Nathan last year.
The point was that of the 8 closers in the playoffs in 2009, Broxton blew a game. Lidge blew a game. Fuentes blew a game. Papelbon blew a game. Street blew a game. Franlin blew a game (although you can give him a bit of a pass since the runs were unearned and he should have been out of the inning and gotten the save, but it’s still a blown save). And Nathan blew a game. It wasn’t to praise Mariano so no need for anyone to come rushing to bash him because he’s a Yankee. He happened to not blow a save so I mentioned that. The point was that 7 of the 8 closers blew games in the playoffs so to act like Nathan can’t get it done in big spots (which some seemed to be implying) and that the Twins should go find someone who can is kind of ridiculous. Nathan’s up there as one of the best closers in baseball, and replacing him won’t be easy, and acting like he’s the reason the Twins haven’t gotten farther in the playoffs is, as some seem to be implying, is insane.
Hey Joe, if you need any suggestions for today’s player, I offer up Nomar Garciaparra of the Boston Red Sox.
Thank you, Joe. Fascinating discussion: so there’s where the discussion comes on the closer’s worth. Aghast, I am.
I would like to mark an amateur’s note of strong skepticism: going by the WARs listed for the Yankees, I see an anomaly: with 2009 values (listed on the home page of iYankees), Mo has a 2.0 WAR, less than the 2.1 of Gardner, who definitely was not a factor in the season. Something is definitely out of whack, and I hear people denigrating the value of relievers, in general.
Finally, I thank David Berliner for a fine demonstration of the special sauce.
Oh yeah, Joe:
“Guerrier, unlike Crain, was good last year; he led the league in appearances and had the best WHIP of his career (.969 walks and hits per inning pitched). Neither candidate will excite anyone.”
Why wouldn’t a .969 WHIP for league-leading appearances excite everyone?
As a Tigers fan, I hate Nathan although I certainly respect him. He is a GREAT closer. I remember when he was traded from the Giants to the Twins and thought that was a great deal for the Twins. I live in the SF Bay Area and had seen him pitch. He has certainly lived up to his promise. If he is out for the year, the chances of the Tigers and White Sox winning the division go up. He’s that dominant, in my opinion.
GR
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