The McGwire Call
Posted: January 13th, 2010 | Filed under: Baseball, Media, Other Sports | 42 Comments »
Well, it has been an odd 48 hours or so. To tell you the truth, it’s just an odd time in general. In the last few days I’ve been in Dallas, Los Angeles, Phoenix and Kansas City … and tomorrow I take the family down to Florida where I am the keynote speaker at the Sports Turf Management Association Annual Conference.* I am very excited about this, though I should note that I was looking at the Sports Turf Management Website and did not actually see my name on the schedule. It’s not like I need to see my name on the STMA Web site for ego reasons … I’m more concerned that I will go down there and they will be like, “Uh, and you are?”
*Like you didn’t already know that.
Anyway, the last 48 hours or so I have found myself writing many words about Mark McGwire. I wrote my column in Sports Illustrated magazine about McGwire, and then I wrote a column that appeared online at SI.com. The opinions are similar, except for the timing. The magazine opinion I wrote before I saw the interview with Bob Costas. The online opinion was written afterward. Strange that you can read the second opinion first, and the first opinion last. Well, it’s a mad, mad, mad world.
And then, this afternoon my phone rang. It was marked “Blocked” on my cell phone. I don’t have too many friends who have their cell phone numbers blocked. But I was also waiting on a call for a story, and it seemed like I had better answer the call, just in case.
“Joe?”
“Yes.”
“Hi, this is Mark McGwire.”
I’m not sure why I wasn’t more surprised. In my memory, I have never spoken to Mark McGwire outside of a group setting. I don’t have his cell number and I have no idea how he got mine. The column that I wrote for SI.com had gone up maybe five or 10 minutes before, so I doubt that he had seen it. I know he had not seen the magazine column. In retrospect, the call should have felt really weird and even prankish. But something about the call just felt … normal. Maybe it’s because I had been thinking so much about McGwire and his admission and the general reaction. Maybe it’s because McGwire had talked with quite a few people. I really don’t know. Maybe he’s a Snuggies fan.
And here’s the thing: I still don’t know because he never actually said why he was calling. We just started talking. He said that he felt a lot better today than he did yesterday. He said that he’s been hitting well in the cage lately. He said that he was excited about becoming a hitting coach. Well, you can see what he said here in the third column I wrote about McGwire.
When we hung up, I started to think a little bit about … Lenny Wilkens.*
*Ha, you didn’t see that coming did you?
Years ago, back when I was the worst agate clerk in the history of The Charlotte Observer, I came up with this story idea. I was looking at the NBA Standings (instead of coding them, which was my job) and I noticed that teams in the NBA hardly ever won the road. This probably does not seem like a breakthrough discovery to you, but I was only 20 or 21 at the time, and this was as close to breakthrough as I was going to get.
I was still a bit intimidated by the sports editor — especially because he had yelled at me once during a company softball game — but I mentioned this idea to him. And he said: “Go ahead and write it.”
And I thought: Great!
And then I thought: What?
And then I thought: How?
Yes, I was running through the five questions. How does someone go about writing a story like that? Now, don’t think that I was utterly inexperienced. I had, up to that point, written numerous high school game stories, with catchy leads like “Topper Jones rushed for 127 yards and two touchdowns as East Mecklenburg beat South Mecklenburg 28-23 Friday in conference action.” Sometimes, though, I’d go a whole other way and write “East Mecklenberg, led by Topper Jones’ 127 yards and two touchdowns, beat South Mecklenburg 28-23 in conference action Friday.” Oh, I had some versatility. Writing a story about why it’s so hard to win on the road in the NBA at that point seemed only slightly more daunting than learning how to speak Portuguese over the weekend.
I asked several people for advice, including journalism heroes like Tom Sorensen and Leigh Montville. They offered great thoughts which I immediately forgot. I was entirely lost until someone, maybe one of those two, said: “You ought to call the NBA teams, tell them what you’re going to do, and see if they give you someone to talk with.”
Yes. This “Talking to NBA people” idea had merit. Of course, I had this one problem … I was a complete wreck when it came to approaching strangers. It’s not something that I’m completely over, either. I always liked the line — Frank Deford has said it, though I don’t think it originates with him — that journalism draws shy people because it gives us a professional excuse to engage people. I have found that to be true in my life.
Anyway, I was scared to death. I remember that the first team I called was the Cleveland Cavaliers (of course) and I asked to speak to the media relations person. I have no idea who that person was, but I suspect whoever he was, he will remember me because I was the kid who babbled for 10 minutes about how I was working on this story, it was about the NBA, and how hard it is for road teams to win, and how I had broken down these numbers, and how I had also broken down the NFL and baseball and hockey numbers, and it really was stark, and this was my first story, and I really didn’t know what I was doing, and I was kind of hoping he would help me …*
*When I’m nervous — something that doesn’t happen much anymore (thank God) — I tend to babble. I know I’ve written the story here about the time I met my all-time hero Jim Murray at the Masters. I was the columnist in Augusta at the time, and he came down for what I’m pretty sure was his last Masters. I am not the type to approach my heroes, but I had to do this, so I walked up to Jim Murray and tapped him on the shoulder. He turned to me, and I remember he had these big coke bottle glasses, and this kind face, and I UNLEASHED on him, a torrent of praise and esteem and nonsense — a whole lot of “Mr. Murray, um, I’m just really a big fan, Mr. Murray, and Mr. Murray, I really got into this business because, I mean, not that I could ever be like you Mr. Murray, but because, you know, you are so great Mr. Murray and I just, Mr. Murray, if I could only write like one-tenth of the way you write, Mr. Murray …”
And I remember him just looking at me, patiently, waiting for some sort of point to come out, something he could digest, something, anything. And looking back, I think I realized the horror of it all even as I was talking to him. I’m quite sure that my mind was saying, “You need to shut up now. OK, shut up now. You don’t even know what you’re saying now. He thinks you’re a madman. You need to stop talking now.”
But I kept going and going and going. And finally, when I had run out of breath, I wrapped it up somehow. And Jim Murray put his hand on my shoulder, and he gave me the most patient smile imaginable — a father to son smile — and he said: “Next time, use fewer words.”
Anyway … I drowned the poor Cavaliers guy with a whole lot of information he did not need. But at some point he figured out that I probably wanted to talk with someone who could speak with some expertise on the subject of NBA road woes. And so he told me to hold on for a second, and I figured he would get me a number, and then suddenly I heard a “Hello?”
“Um, hi, yes, I was on hold, I’m working on this story …”
“Hello, this is Lenny Wilkens.”
Lenny Wilkens. Hall of Famer Lenny Wilkens. You can only imagine that amount of babbling that followed. But, we got through it. And a whole world opened up for me that day. I realized that even a 20-year-old kid without a clue could pick up a telephone in a newspaper office and he might end up talking to Lenny Wilkens. A few days later, I remember someone shouting across the room, “Pat Riley is on hold for you.” I loved this journalism thing. If you wanted to know something, you could make a few calls and find out. What a world.
Of course, it isn’t that easy. Like every other journalist, I have spent thousands of hours waiting on return calls, many which are never returned. I have spent countless frustrating days calling and calling and never getting to the person I needed. But that’s the job. And it’s still a thrill to connect with someone and ask them questions you are really curious about and listen to their answers. I suppose I should have been more surprised when Mark McGwire called me. But I guess I’ve been in this crazy business for a good long while. And I had questions for him. So I asked them. It has been a long time since Lenny Wilkens picked up. Now THAT was a surprise.
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Great read Joe – I’m off to read the others…
Is this where I do that “circle me” thingy?
Looks like you are okay to go to Florida. The digital brochure on the STMA website lists you as keynote speaker 8 AM Thursday the 14th. They even have your picture in the program!
I pretty much agree with Joe 100% on this.
Also, it bothers me the way a lot of sportswriters or media personalities are acting. I don’t like that many have been demanding an admission and apology for years, and now are attacking McGwire for doing just that. Be honest. Accept the apology or don’t, but if you demand one and then, after receiving a perfectly legitimate one, attack him for it, you’re not being honest; you’re just attacking McGwire no matter what he does.
Joe-
you were on a list of names McGwire’s PR people gave him to call, people they thought might be willing to spread his message and paint him in a positive light.
don’t get too carried away.
KyleLitke – Man, you’re so right about that.
Joe, there is a reason McGwire called you. It’s called respect. Even if he doesn’t read you, then someone else said he should call you.
Baseball fans and writers have become absolutely rabid over the steroid scandal while ignoring the elephant in the room: expansion.
In 1977, the AL added the Mariners and the Blue Jays, adding about 20 new pitchers who weren’t good enough to crack a major league roster the previous season. Here’s the top 5 Home Run Hitters in the AL for 1976 vs 1977
76 77
1.Nettles 32 Rice 39
2.Bando 27 Bonds 37
3.Jackson 27 Nettles 37
4.Rice 25 Scott 33
5.May 25 Jackson 32
Notice a pattern? 12 players hit at least 28 home runs in the AL in 1977, against just 1 the previous year. Where’s the outrage against the tainted late 70’s?
In 1993, the NL added the Marlins and Rockies. Here’s the before and after home run leaders for 92 and 93
92 93
1. McGriff 35 Bonds 46
2. Bonds 34 Justice 40
3. Sheffield 33 Williams 38
4. Dalton 27 McGriff 37
5. Hollins 27 Gant 36
There it is again. Even the most hardcore Barry haters don’t suspect he started using steroids until several years later, so why the jump from a career high 34 to 46? Could the diluted talent pool be a factor?
In 1998, MLB added the D-backs and Rays. The dilution effect was diminished by having one team go to each league, but that’s still 4 new teams in 5 years, which means 40+ unqualified pitchers were now taking the mound regularly.
And since I’m sure you want to see it, here’s the before and after for the MLB HR leaders in 97-98
97 98
1.McGwire 58 McGwire 70
2.Griffey 56 Sosa 66
3. Walker 49 Griffey 56
4. Martinez 44 Vaughan 50
5. Bagwell 43 Belle 49
Steroids were certainly a factor, but in all likelihood those records would have fallen anyways because the gap between the best players and an average player was bigger than ever.
Steroids, according to the average fan`s thinking, should primarily help players who depend on power, ie. home run hitters. But dilution aids anyone who`s simply very good at what they do because it allows them to play inferior opponents more often.
History and the numbers suggest that a rising tide did indeed lift all ships. At the same time that McGwire and Sosa were hitting dingers, Maddux Johnson Clemens and Martinez were all having some of the most dominant pitching seasons in baseball history. Was Maddux juicing? Tony Gwynn`s batting average rose from .317 in 1992 to .394 in 1994. He had a Bondsian second-prime in his mid 30`s, but nobody ever mentions Gwynn as a possible cheater.
It seems like this entire controversy is just a straw man witch hunt. I really don`t care what he put in his body. The league was entertaining and fair, steroids have been taken out of the game, and that`s all that matters.
I’m finding it hard to demonize the players over this. It is so obvious baseball and everyone involved knew and condoned it while it was happening. Go look at the video of the McGwire-Sosa summer, when baseball ‘came back’. It was a veritable love fest. The country loved these guys. Now one of them is changing colors and the other one is crying on National TV. What a country. And its no wonder Bonds, 3x the player of either one of those guys, got pissed and reached for the cream and the clear. Count the numbers, account for the juice and the ability to stay on the field longer and return faster – whatever – but let’s cut the holier than thou.
Roids are still in baseball. Manny Ramirez got popped last year and it’s a sure thing Albert Pujols is a roid monkey. His trainer is a well known steroid distributor. It ain’t over folks.
I just read both of your McGwire articles and can’t believe you didn’t bother to ask or point out, if steroids didn’t help him hit home runs, WHY DID HE APOLOGIZE TO THE MARIS FAMILY????
@4 Chris – I gotta agree. I’m sure once McGwire was done with Bob Costas he called SI(Joe), TSN, USA Today, and ESPN the magazine. I can see this quickly turning from the exclusive first interview(Costas), to a few interesting new details(Bob Ley), to for the love of God please stop talking about it Mark( 5 Good Minutes – PTI).
Is Tony LaRussa that condescending that he thinks he can tell us anything and the public will eat it up? We’re supposed to believe that these guys can see the rotation of the stitching on a baseball hurtling 98 MPH towards their ribcage, but never saw anyone anywhere inject anything.
Has anyone ever wondered why the pitchers kept their mouths shut during the height of the roid outbreak? They must have been in on it, probably via the players union. They kept their mouths shut and took the pounding by Bonds, McGwire, Palmeiro, etc. just so the money spigot would stay wide open.
Same thing with the managers. It just shows you how deep the roid conspiracy goes.
The only people who are truly getting screwed over are the fans. They keep on getting duped and still, they seem to ask for more. I dropped baseball awhile back, vowing to give as little money to these cheaters as possible. No tickets, no autographed baseball, no jerseys or hats, etc. I’m perfectly happy to spend my money elsewhere.
@ #6 Cam ….if I had the time right now, I’d go to Baseball Reference and find out every pitcher McGwire smacked a HR off of in ‘98 and then cross reference that list to see what those pitcher’s HR per 9 were…or HR’s per PA. It’d be interesting to see if a significant amount of his HR’s were hit off guys who give up more HR’s than most.
Of course, nobody will want to do that or hear that, ’cause it might re-legitimize McGwire’s season.
PS. has anyone noticed what all this means for Ryan Howard? His 58 HR’s in ‘06 now stands as the highest single season amount of HR’s since Maris, by a non-steroid tainted player. Interestingly, 58 seems more in line with the old high water mark.
Sadly, agreed that McGwire calling and just starting to talk seems less magical to me and more “flack just handed me a phone.”
I thought Joe’s column about apologies was nice: good point that forgiveness is about just not being mad anymore. Personally, I was never mad at Mark McGwire. But his “steroids didn’t help me hit the ball better” stuff is bunkum.
The sad truth is — we’ll never know how good McGwire would have been without steroids. And neither will he.
@6 – Cam, great post.
I pretty much agree with Joe’s take, and I find it a little distasteful for analysts and writers to sit in a studio and call another man’s tearful apology insufficiently sincere. What qualifies anybody to make that judgment?
Joe,
Its pretty clear why McGwire called you… he’s being “handled” by Ari Fleischer’s PR firm.
They obviously appreciated your online column about not piling on McGwire anymore.
I respect your opinion, but I gotta say your way off on your take with McGwire.
His “apology” was full of half truths and I think that even though it was difficult for him and he appeared sincere, he stopped well short of where he needed to go.
His ridiculous assertion that steroids didn’t help him hit home runs is insulting. I really think he blew a great chance to be truthful and finally put it behind him.
Now instead of being remembered as the guy who wouldn’t talk about the past, he going to always be the guy who claimed that steroids don’t help you hit home runs.
@6
You forget that all the numbers put up in the last 20 years or so are all fake and should be pretty much ignored. Unlike the numbers put up by white guys who only played against other white guys. Those numbers are real and holy, shrouded in light and sprinkled with cinnamon. To be forever etched in marble high atop a sacred mountaintop.
Or the numbers put up when the ball was wound tighter. Or when the mound was a different height. Or when nearly every stadium had artificial turf that turned grounders into triples. All those numbers are real and unquestionable.
I know this because legions of blowhard sanctimonious sportswriters told me so. Who are we to dispute them?
Steroids make a player stronger, so the ball will go farther. But first, they still have to make contact…are they all on carrot juice too?
Can those that are so critical of McGwire and still don’t accept his apology please get off your high-horse? His crime was doing something that a good majority of players in his time were most likely doing and we’re supposed to be appalled by that?
I’m really baffled by everybody’s anger over his apology. It just seems a little self-righteous and extreme. I think people feel that McGwire stole something from them or violated them. Maybe he did in a way. But I don’t know if it was to the degree that people are standing over him, condemning him for not rending his garments, putting a gun to his head, and begging for forgiveness.
I think he’s sorry. I think he’s embarrassed. I think he honestly believes that steroids merely allowed him to stay healthy and didn’t have anything to do with his ability to hit home runs that landed in Ethiopia. I don’t think that’s true, but if it’s what he believes, he’s apologizing to the greatest to degree that he can. Maybe some of the people that are so angry with him can try to convince him otherwise, but good luck with that.
Maybe people should just write a script for him and say, “THIS is what you should say in your apology. This is what I want to hear.” And then he can say it, and we all can get on with our lives.
OR we can accept that he may have indeed given us all he had in terms of an apology… and we can get on with our lives.
From Tom Verducci’s August 1999 SI column:
“The celebration of 500 (home runs) seemed all the more joyous because just before hitting it, McGwire revealed that four months ago he stopped taking androstenedione, a substance that the body converts to an anabolic steroid, out of concern that kids were following his lead. ‘This shows that andro is irrelevant,’ he said.”
To me this a great quote for a number of reasons. It shows how out of touch the sportswriters were at the time (“joyous” because McGwire stopped using andro.). It shows that the McGwire knew that even the use of a “legal” substance like andro (which was “irrelevant”) was a taint in the public eye, and by implication that actual steroid use (which he never acknowledged while a player and now claims also is “irrelevant” to his power numbers) would be viewed as cheating by the public. He presumably continued steroid use after stopping andro use “for the sake of the children.”
Human beings are complicated. I don’t doubt that a part of McGwire is sorry. He doesn’t need my “forgiveness.” I’m not angry at McGwire–that would be a waste of emotion. I can understand why a professional athlete would do it, particularly when his career was derailing. But I also believe that McGwire knew that he was cheating.
This isn’t moralizing. I’m not on my “high horse.” McGwire was something to watch. He did become a better hitter later in his career. His swing became more compact, more efficient. All to his credit. But I will view his accomplishments in the light of his steroid use.
There is nothing McGwire could have said that would have pleased some people. Certain people relish the chance to spew outrage and enjoy the chance to see a hero taken down a notch. The response to this situation is similar to the response to the Tiger Woods story in that it tells a lot about the state of our society today – watching heroes fall is as enjoyable (or moreso) than watching them succeed for a majority of the general public. That seems kind of pathetic and sad.
My biggest problem with McGwire and most of these guys that used steroids is an attitude they have that the only person they affected was themselves.
Well, what about a fringe major league pitcher that never stayed in the majors because he gave up one too many homers to Mcgwire, Bonds and Sosa?
Or what about players from that time period who haven’t been implicated with steroids? Should Moises Alou get the ‘98 MVP award?
John Olerud is 12th in runs created from 1990-2005. Where would he rank without the steroid users? would that change the perception of him as a player? Would he be a HOF player without the steroid guys.
How about Fred Mcgriff? He most certainly would have a stronger HOF case without the steroid users.
Bryan @14: “…The sad truth is — we’ll never know how good McGwire would have been without steroids. And neither will he.”
True, but we can make some educated guesses. McGwire admitted taking steroids seriously after the 1993 season, which was his age-29 season. So I looked at his list of comparables through that age. Since those similarity scores are based on counting stats to a large degree, I threw out anyone whose OPS+ was more than 10% different than McGwire’s mark of 143. I also threw out Ryan Howard since we don’t know what he’ll do once he turns 30. That gave me five guys:
Cecil Fielder
Willie McCovey
Fred McGriff
Glenn Davis
Mo Vaughn
All power-hitting first basemen, which is good, and a nice cross-section of eras, body types, durability, etc. Some of these guys played over 1000 more games starting at age 30, others were already done as effective players. Some were already done having good seasons, some still had their best individual seasons ahead of them.
The commonality? Every single one of them saw their OPS+ drop. For one of them it wasn’t much of a difference at all. Willie McCovey’s OPS+ through age 29 was 149; after that is was still a robust 146. But all of the others dropped at least 10%, with Davis the worst with a near 26% drop. The average drop was 15.5%.
So, following the trend set by the players who were most similar to him, McGwire would have posted an OPS+ of 121 or so once he turned 30. Had he played anything close to the same number of games after that age as he did in real life, his final career OPS+ would be around 132, a pretty respectable number, but 2 points less than McGriff’s career mark, and precisely the same as Vaughn’s. The jury is out on McGriff’s Hall of Fame chances, but Vaughn’s ship has already sailed, and he’s probably a better comp to McGwire given their respective injury issues.
But McGwire didn’t follow that trend. His OPS+ didn’t drop after turning 30. In fact it went up more than 27%. Of course, steroids didn’t have anything to do with that, as he’s more than happy to tell you.
#13: 2006 was a weird high-octane season after things had started to calm down.
League slugging percentage of 2004: .428
League slugging percentage of 2005: .419
League slugging percentage of 2006: .432
League slugging percentage of 2007: .423
League slugging percentage of 2008: .416
League slugging percentage of 2009: .418
On the whole, it was the highest league number since 2000 (.437).
MarkLeiger@11:
No, I have never wondered why the pitchers kept their mouths shut during the height of the roid outbreak, because I know exactly why they kept their mouths shut.
It’s what you do when starting to point fingers at other people for doing the exact same thing you’re doing is likely to cause unwanted attention to fall upon you.
If there’s anyone that McGwire should be apologizing to, it’s José Canseco.
I had one of these exact moments not too long ago. I got to interview Casey Martin (the golfer) for the Uni Watch blog. I was a stammering, disorganized mess for most of it. I think I’ve maybe done a total of 20 journalistic interviews in my entire life, and here I was, interviewing a former PGA Tour golfer about football uniforms (it seems obscure until you realize that Martin is actually the trigger-man for what the Oregon football team wears for every game). It was an incredible experience that I doubt I’ll ever forget. (Of course, walking into the building and ending up literally half a foot away from childhood god Mike Bellotti was an amazing moment in and of itself.)
I wonder if MM called any of the columnists who had panned his apology.
[...] Joe Posnanski talks about what it was like to receive a call from Mark McGwire after defending the disgraced slugger in light of his recent steroid admission. [...]
Nice breakdown, Cam. I’m just wondering how the Royals always end up with all of those inferior pitchers.
i’ve never written before…although i could’ve many, many times. you’re the very, very best of the writers. thank you…and of course i’d've done steroids (or anything else) that would’ve gotten me to the next level. so what? athletes seek an edge…omg…joe, you’re the best evah ( i’m 53 years old and read sports illustrated in 1965) brian shorey loves your work
I just spent 30 minutes compiling a list for all fo you of every HR hit by McGwire in ‘98 and off which pitcher and what his HR/9 was that season and for his career.
Then I clicked submit and it erased. I hate my life.
Suffice to say, the average was less than stellar. Most of the pitchers off whom McGwire hit a HR were not household names. They’re collective HR/9 that season was above 1.0 (only 2 were below 0.5), so they would have been giving up HR to many people that season, not just Big Mac.
I have another patient now, so I can’t rehash my findings … but it was awesome.
Hey Joe and other commentators, I know this is off topic, but what do you guys think of the Scoops Callahan schtick that this guys is doing? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzPuK0iMueo
I think it’s hilarious.
And why can’t those NBA teams win on the road? It’s the officiating bias, right?
Wait, you were in Phoenix? In the last couple of days? Not for a book signing, was it? I’d hate to think that I missed that.
If you’re coming to Phoenix to sign books (or even copies of Sports Illustrated), please make sure I have plenty of notice.
hector #35 — Yes. I hope that clears things up for you. lol
Seriously, that topic has been studied quite extensively, and that does appear to be the largest reason, though by no means the only one.
The flip side of the argument, the one NOBODY is addressing, is that steroids are legal.
So are contact lenses and laser eye surgery.
So is arthroscopic surgery.
So are lean meat diets, high Omega-3 fish oils, and statin drugs.
So are weight training, sports psychologists, and video tapes.
In fact, there are dozens if not hundreds of things baseball players do today to become better ballplayers that I’m sure Ruth and Mantle and plenty of other old timers would have done if they would have been available back then.
What will happen when a kid gets laser eye surgery to correct his vision to 20:10 in order to see the ball like Teddy Ballgame? Should he be allowed to do that? What about glasses or contact lenses?
As far as I’m concerned, Barry Bonds is a Hall of Famer because he won three MVP awards when Gold Gloves and stolen bases were still part of his value. He twice led the league in OPS+ while also stealing more than 40 bases. He established his MVP credentials before he started steroids. Steroids don’t take that away from him.
The other sluggers, well, who’s to tell? Steroids enable muscles to regrow faster. They’re used by sluggers to lift weights more often to become stronger to move the bat faster. But they could be used by pitchers every five days to bounce back from pitching without ever lifting a weight or showing signs of using them. I believe, I really believe that the great trio of Maddux, Johnson, and Martinez never used steroids, because they all look so skinny. But you know, you don’t have to pump iron to benefit from steroids, and they would help pitchers be able to take the ball every fifth day. Will we every know for certain? I see no way we will except for those few who confess.
For all we know, every home run McGwire and Sosa hit in their magical season was off a juiced pitcher. Think about that.
All of which leads me back to: it was legal, it was undetected (if not undetectable), it would have benefited pitchers and hitters alike, and I don’t want to leave the HOF empty for a decade. Heck, the HOF is already becoming under represented. We had, what, four guys on this year’s ballot who clearly deserved entry who didn’t get in. Too many voters think that by voting for few players they make their vote more meaningful, when all it really does is trivialize the fact that half a billion human beings form the pool for the HOF today, and a pool one fifth that size generated HOF players in the 1940s. Logic says we should have five times as many HOFers each year. But we’re not getting that.
[...] getting a call from Mark McGwire was infinitely more interesting than the call from McGwire itself. Joe Posnanski internet marketing 6. I swear this will be our final McGwire item of the day, but I really [...]
[...] Joe Posnanski » Blog Archive » The McGwire CallStrange that you can read the second opinion first, and the first opinion last. Well, it’s a mad, mad, mad world. And then, this afternoon my phone rang. It was marked “Blocked… [...]
[...] Joe Posnanski » Blog Archive » The McGwire CallStrange that you can read the second opinion first, and the first opinion last. Well, it’s… [...]
Joe:
I published this on BUZZ SCIENCE
I won a Ford Foundation Fellowship in Physical Anthropology and come from a family of scholars and medical people, so I know a bit about human structure and about drugs like steroids. Steroids tend to interfere with eye-hand coordination eyesight and reflexes of many who take them and becoming muscle bound is a detriment to the lightening reflexes needed in hitting a baseball. As Ted Williams proved, eyesight and stellar reflexes along with incredible eye-hand coordination and pitch selectivity, are the secrets of hitting a baseball frequently. Hitting it far depends on one more thing the ability to hit the bottom half of the baseball, as Ruth pointed out. Muscularity and brute strength are neither a necessity nor a prerequisite, and, in fact are sometimes a determent.
There are several factors which caused the phenomenal rise in home run production. But was it really phenomenal? Not according to historical data, which reveals that technological discoveries often lead to an increase in that which is favored among human endeavors. Below are some examples of the gradual and sometimes herky-jerky rise in home run hitting.
In Babe Ruth’s era the average distance from home plate to the center field fence was 450 feet, today it is 405 feet. Back then the alleys were, on average 400-415 feet, today they are 368-385 feet. The balls were livelier in 1991 and again in 1998. The mounds are now ten inches high, in Ruth’s time and mine, they were 15″-18″ (reg’s said 15″ but most teams cheated to 18″). Ruth’s home production in 1920/1921 was phenomenal, because at the Polo Grounds, which at the time was the Highlander’s/Yankees home park shared with the Giants, the center field fence was 490 feet from home plate . I suggest reading Bill Jenkinson’s book, THE YEAR BABE RUTH HIT 104 HOME RUNS. In it he displays charts showing doubles, triples and sacrifice flies as well as fly outs which today would all have been home runs. I did a similar computer study/chart based on ball park size, which over his career, were it played out in the era from 1986-2009 and played all of it as an outfielder, he would have hit more than 1500-1650 home runs. Bill Jenkinson shows Ruth, if he simply had the same career, pitching included, in the modern era, would have hit about 1150 home runs. My totals give him a few more years in the outfield and exclude the pitching. When I added the pitching as did Jenkinson, I showed Ruth hitting 1250-1400 home runs.
Many great hitters like Ted Williams increased their home run per times at bat as they grew older, as did Ruth in 1927-1928. In Ruth’s youth both leagues hit about 400 HR’s per year, the average to lead the league by a player was 9.5 HR’s from 1901-1918, both leagues gradually increased HR production in starts and jumps and now both leagues hit 13 times that figure or over 5100 HR’s per season. That increase has nothing to do with drugs, the people who are ignorant of the realities of such data and the natural evolution of sports records, viciously cling to accusatory slanders. Basketball and Football have seen records expand as well. Human beings are bigger, faster and have better health than they had in 1920. It is the natural evolution of human events.
When Ruth hit 54 in 1920/59 in 1921, he hit more HRs, than 14 of the 16 entire teams. When I was a kid very few guys hit 25 HR’s in a season now many do every season. Barry Bonds and others, if they took steroids, hit HR’s, in spite of Medicines and drugs containing steroids. By the way, at age 32, in a game, I hit a brand new Spaulding baseball 436 feet. In my prime the farthest I ever hit a ball was 420 feet. I was NOT stronger at age 32 than at age 18/19/20.
Perhaps some senate committee ought to investigate if Baseball executives lied about the increased liveliness of the baseballs and is so put the commissioner on trial. Did they liven the baseballs to avert the strike in 1991/1994 and again in 1998 onward? They wanted to fill the ball parks and make enough money to hold them in a short season. They also hoped that the players hitting so many home runs would deter them from striking, they were wrong and never forgave the union for that. Take a look at the short season stats and the year Bagwell had. Superballs were flying out of ball fields like Geese in a park. If most players took steroids how come they all didn’t hit as many HR’s as Bonds, Sosa, ARod and McGwire? Why did everyone’s HR production gradually rise to 13 times what the leagues hit before 1920?
Maybe the non-scientific accusatory naysayer’s can understand one thing. It is not news if everyone can do it. When Ruth made his run or 12 home run championships, that was tremendous, that was genius, that was miraculous. When Hank Aaron, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, ARod, Ken Griffy Junior and those who followed were blasting 50 home runs with ease, they were surrounded by a huge number of other hitters who were hitting 25,30, 35, 40 and 45 home runs. The leader of that parade is not really a very special one because it was not as difficult as it was in 1920/1921, 1927/1928.
In 1920 all of the players in Major League Baseball combined hit a total of 630 home runs, Ruth hit 54 of them, or 8.6% of the total. In the year 2000 all of the players in Major League Baseball combined hit a total of 5,693 home runs or more than nine times as many as were hit in 1920. Jeff Bagwell led the NL with 47 not quite 1% of the total. Was every one on steroids? No, shorter fences, lower mounds, and much livelier baseballs made the records, not drugs.
Another Professor has a similar take on steroids and home runs,
Change
your photo
Professor Emeri… says:
“However, the sudden, pronounced rise in home run production from certain players beginning around 1997/98, and ending just as abruptly around 2001/02, cannot be explained by such factors.”
With all due respect, Gene, yes they can. In 1930 the ball was Rabbited up and records were smashed and everyone became a high average and high home run hitter, which dropped by 500 the next year. See year stats below, Stats, the small figures are each league for the year, the large bold are the two leagues combined:
424 439 863 1926, 439 483 922 1927, 483 610 1,093 1928, 595 754 1,349 1929, 673 892 1,565 1930, 576 493 1,069 1931
Then there was the Dave Cash Superball Year, 1961, when it took a leap of 600 home runs, stayed up, even increased for a year, and then slowly receded. I saw the same home run production beginning in 1960-1961 when we started also using Reach/Spaulding baseballs, our home run production leaped. In 1961 Maris who never hit 40 hrs before or after hit 61 and Dave Cash, Jim Gentile and many others were one year wonders.
1,024 1,178 2,202 1957, 1,057 1,183 2,240 1958 1,091 1,159 2,250 1959 1,086 1,042 2,128 1960, 1,534 1,196 2,730 1961, 1,552 1,449 3,001 1962, 1,489 1,215 2,704 1963, 1,551 1,211 2,762 1964, 1,370 1,318 2,688 1965, 1,365 1,378 2,743 1966, 1,197 1,102 2,299 1967.
In 1987 Andre Dawson whose hr production was in the 20’s and 30’s leaped to 49 and would have been greater but he was hit in the face and missed 10-14 days. MLB Hr production leaped again by 600 to 4,458 hrs, then dropped the next year to 3,180 hrs. Stats:
1,980 1,278 3,258 1984, 2,178 1,424 3,602 1985, 2,290 1,523 3,813 1986, 2,634 1,824 4,458 1987, 1,901 1,279 3,180 1988, 1,718 1,365 3,083 1989
Another Professor has a similar take on steroids and home runs,
Steroids and Home Runs
Professor Emeritus Arthur De Vany
Department of Economics
Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences
University of California, Irvine
http://www.arthurdevany.com
asdevany@uci.edu