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	<title>Comments on: One and Done (with updates)</title>
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	<description>A Rough Draft Blog</description>
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		<title>By: The Evil Twin</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done-with-updates/#comment-89205</link>
		<dc:creator>The Evil Twin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:26:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done/#comment-89205</guid>
		<description>There are a few things I wanted to comment on:

1) The Baseball HOF has had wildly varying standards for admittance throughout its history, either through the BBWAA voting or the Veteran&#039;s Committee.  At times, they have allowed in merely good players, especially those that played on &quot;championship teams&quot; or were fellow teammates of current HOFers, while at other times, they have held players to impossible standards (&quot;Well, he&#039;s not Willie Mays, so he&#039;s not a HOFer.&quot;).  This vacillation has established precedent for current voters to apply either set of guidelines (or anything in between) to their own personal ballots.  This can also be more pronounced when voters overvalue (positively or negatively) a player&#039;s &quot;ability&quot; or their raw career counting stats.

2) Joe&#039;s point in the article isn&#039;t that &quot;such-and-such player compares favorably to an actual or near HOFer, so he should be in, too&quot;, but instead that two players by who are clearly comparable, by virtually any measure, are instead being viewed practically on opposite ends of the spectrum through the prism of the HOF vote, and that is at least peculiar, if not blatantly unfair.

3) I appreciate the strength of conviction many people have regarding their personal perceptions of players, when used to determine the greatness of their year-to-year and career performances.  I just don&#039;t think that virtually any person, operating entirely off of their personal opinions (professional or amateur) and the opinions of those they hold in regard, can accurately assess the relative merits of such a large number of players, both those currently on the ballot and all those who have been on the ballot before, whether inducted or not.  Statistics are incredibly helpful to that understanding, but the raw numbers themselves are useless without understanding the context under which they were produced and collected.  This is why mathematical computations, carried out primarily on computers, are essential to the level of analysis necessary to make the best informed decisions as to a given player&#039;s candidacy worth.  This is not to say that the perception-based opinion has no place in voting methodology, or that only the most computer-intensive statistical analyses are worthwhile for this purpose.  But robust methods exist to distill the accomplishments of the player into mathematical forms that provide very effective means of putting them in proper historical perspective, and helping truly understand their Hall of Fame worth.

4) The Pro Footbal HOF does some things very well in their voting process, namely in assembling their voting members and reaching a consensus as to those players who should receive HOF induction.  However, their HOF voting has some serious flaws, often not unlike Baseball&#039;s: set number of player inductees, utter discounting (or over-valuing) of the value of certain positions or skill-sets, poor contextual understanding of performance statistics.  I&#039;d like to see more consensus building to determine HOF worthiness as soon as players are eligible, rather than waiting 15 years to finally figure it out; this might also make it easier for worthy players to have their cases be championed in front of the assembled body, and gain the proper shot at enshrinement that so many have been denied.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are a few things I wanted to comment on:</p>
<p>1) The Baseball HOF has had wildly varying standards for admittance throughout its history, either through the BBWAA voting or the Veteran&#8217;s Committee.  At times, they have allowed in merely good players, especially those that played on &#8220;championship teams&#8221; or were fellow teammates of current HOFers, while at other times, they have held players to impossible standards (&#8220;Well, he&#8217;s not Willie Mays, so he&#8217;s not a HOFer.&#8221;).  This vacillation has established precedent for current voters to apply either set of guidelines (or anything in between) to their own personal ballots.  This can also be more pronounced when voters overvalue (positively or negatively) a player&#8217;s &#8220;ability&#8221; or their raw career counting stats.</p>
<p>2) Joe&#8217;s point in the article isn&#8217;t that &#8220;such-and-such player compares favorably to an actual or near HOFer, so he should be in, too&#8221;, but instead that two players by who are clearly comparable, by virtually any measure, are instead being viewed practically on opposite ends of the spectrum through the prism of the HOF vote, and that is at least peculiar, if not blatantly unfair.</p>
<p>3) I appreciate the strength of conviction many people have regarding their personal perceptions of players, when used to determine the greatness of their year-to-year and career performances.  I just don&#8217;t think that virtually any person, operating entirely off of their personal opinions (professional or amateur) and the opinions of those they hold in regard, can accurately assess the relative merits of such a large number of players, both those currently on the ballot and all those who have been on the ballot before, whether inducted or not.  Statistics are incredibly helpful to that understanding, but the raw numbers themselves are useless without understanding the context under which they were produced and collected.  This is why mathematical computations, carried out primarily on computers, are essential to the level of analysis necessary to make the best informed decisions as to a given player&#8217;s candidacy worth.  This is not to say that the perception-based opinion has no place in voting methodology, or that only the most computer-intensive statistical analyses are worthwhile for this purpose.  But robust methods exist to distill the accomplishments of the player into mathematical forms that provide very effective means of putting them in proper historical perspective, and helping truly understand their Hall of Fame worth.</p>
<p>4) The Pro Footbal HOF does some things very well in their voting process, namely in assembling their voting members and reaching a consensus as to those players who should receive HOF induction.  However, their HOF voting has some serious flaws, often not unlike Baseball&#8217;s: set number of player inductees, utter discounting (or over-valuing) of the value of certain positions or skill-sets, poor contextual understanding of performance statistics.  I&#8217;d like to see more consensus building to determine HOF worthiness as soon as players are eligible, rather than waiting 15 years to finally figure it out; this might also make it easier for worthy players to have their cases be championed in front of the assembled body, and gain the proper shot at enshrinement that so many have been denied.</p>
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		<title>By: Josh in DC</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done-with-updates/#comment-89031</link>
		<dc:creator>Josh in DC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Dec 2009 20:50:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done/#comment-89031</guid>
		<description>I have a hard time seeing any Expo except Raines in the Hall.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have a hard time seeing any Expo except Raines in the Hall.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul White</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done-with-updates/#comment-88536</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul White</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Dec 2009 13:54:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done/#comment-88536</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;&quot;Rusty Staub, Al Oliver, Andre Dawson… Dennis Martinez…

It’s an obvious Expos snub...&quot;&lt;/i&gt;

And you just snubbed the best of the lot, Tim Raines.  For shame.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>&#8220;Rusty Staub, Al Oliver, Andre Dawson… Dennis Martinez…</p>
<p>It’s an obvious Expos snub&#8230;&#8221;</i></p>
<p>And you just snubbed the best of the lot, Tim Raines.  For shame.</p>
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		<title>By: Billy Zimmer</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done-with-updates/#comment-88517</link>
		<dc:creator>Billy Zimmer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Dec 2009 09:38:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done/#comment-88517</guid>
		<description>Rusty Staub, Al Oliver, Andre Dawson...  Dennis Martinez...

It&#039;s an obvious Expos snub.  Not only does the team move to D.C. and proceed to totally suck.  Not only did a strike eradicate their world series hopes and lead to that inevitable move out of town.  Their players can&#039;t even get into Cooperstown.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rusty Staub, Al Oliver, Andre Dawson&#8230;  Dennis Martinez&#8230;</p>
<p>It&#8217;s an obvious Expos snub.  Not only does the team move to D.C. and proceed to totally suck.  Not only did a strike eradicate their world series hopes and lead to that inevitable move out of town.  Their players can&#8217;t even get into Cooperstown.</p>
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		<title>By: Evan E. Curb</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done-with-updates/#comment-88473</link>
		<dc:creator>Evan E. Curb</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:32:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done/#comment-88473</guid>
		<description>Dave Parker was on a Hall of Fame path, then signed a big contract, gained fifty pounds, and did a lot of cocaine. Came back with Cincinnati and was Dave Parker again, but I&#039;m a fan and I want those four years back. What he did with his talent was much more egregious than what the steroid guys did.   From 1980 through 1984,  ages 29 through 33, he played in 116 games per year, averaging 12 HRs, 64 RBI, and hitting .281/.319/.431. If I remember correctly, he had signed a contract in 1979 that made him the highest paid player in baseball. 
Not a Hall of Famer, he</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dave Parker was on a Hall of Fame path, then signed a big contract, gained fifty pounds, and did a lot of cocaine. Came back with Cincinnati and was Dave Parker again, but I&#8217;m a fan and I want those four years back. What he did with his talent was much more egregious than what the steroid guys did.   From 1980 through 1984,  ages 29 through 33, he played in 116 games per year, averaging 12 HRs, 64 RBI, and hitting .281/.319/.431. If I remember correctly, he had signed a contract in 1979 that made him the highest paid player in baseball.<br />
Not a Hall of Famer, he</p>
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		<title>By: Kevin in STL</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done-with-updates/#comment-88471</link>
		<dc:creator>Kevin in STL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:19:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done/#comment-88471</guid>
		<description>Hall of Fame induction should be like &quot;popping the question.&quot;  

I think this nonsense would end if guys were on the ballot for one year, and one year only.  

Should it really take 15 years to get a guy in?  Will there be discoveries about a career, like &quot;Jim Rice played his whole career on two prosthetic limbs?&quot;  Wow!  That DOES make me really appreciate his career 21 years after he retired!

Think anyone would leave THE GREATS off the ballot if they were only there for one year?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hall of Fame induction should be like &#8220;popping the question.&#8221;  </p>
<p>I think this nonsense would end if guys were on the ballot for one year, and one year only.  </p>
<p>Should it really take 15 years to get a guy in?  Will there be discoveries about a career, like &#8220;Jim Rice played his whole career on two prosthetic limbs?&#8221;  Wow!  That DOES make me really appreciate his career 21 years after he retired!</p>
<p>Think anyone would leave THE GREATS off the ballot if they were only there for one year?</p>
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		<title>By: Mark Daniel</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done-with-updates/#comment-88465</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark Daniel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Dec 2009 21:58:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done/#comment-88465</guid>
		<description>Andrew @43.  You make a good point. But certain things essentially disqualified Belle from HoF consideration, namely the fact that he didn&#039;t get 2000 hits and he didn&#039;t make up for this with great postseason performances, MVPs, or anything else.   If you look at current HoFers, the only ones with less than 2000 hits are catchers and infielders, as well as a handful of other guys, who statistically seem less deserving than Belle, but who got in on via the Veteran&#039;s committee.  Otherwise, it was Hank Greenberg and Ralph Kiner who were enshrined despite being sluggers with less than 2000 hits. Greenberg had 2 MVPs, a .313 career BA and missed 3 and a half years of his prime due to WWII.  Kiner led the league in HRs for seven straight seasons and finished with a career .398 OBP.  I don&#039;t think it&#039;s about Puckett being a far superior player than Belle, because he wasn&#039;t.  I think Belle didn&#039;t reach the minimum threshold for entry into the HoF, regardless of how good a player he was. Puckett did.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Andrew @43.  You make a good point. But certain things essentially disqualified Belle from HoF consideration, namely the fact that he didn&#8217;t get 2000 hits and he didn&#8217;t make up for this with great postseason performances, MVPs, or anything else.   If you look at current HoFers, the only ones with less than 2000 hits are catchers and infielders, as well as a handful of other guys, who statistically seem less deserving than Belle, but who got in on via the Veteran&#8217;s committee.  Otherwise, it was Hank Greenberg and Ralph Kiner who were enshrined despite being sluggers with less than 2000 hits. Greenberg had 2 MVPs, a .313 career BA and missed 3 and a half years of his prime due to WWII.  Kiner led the league in HRs for seven straight seasons and finished with a career .398 OBP.  I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s about Puckett being a far superior player than Belle, because he wasn&#8217;t.  I think Belle didn&#8217;t reach the minimum threshold for entry into the HoF, regardless of how good a player he was. Puckett did.</p>
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		<title>By: mockcarr</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done-with-updates/#comment-88445</link>
		<dc:creator>mockcarr</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Dec 2009 17:17:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done/#comment-88445</guid>
		<description>Let&#039;s remember that every very, very good player doesn&#039;t have to be in the hall of fame. Part of the fun of HOF is the vagueness, and how much is left to the individual voter to weight any factor. It&#039;s like voting for anything else, the answer to a question applied at a different times can turn out differently maybe just by weighting one factor a little more or less - and you&#039;re not WRONG either way, it&#039;s an opinion.

I think character, personality, and proximity count in voting more than writers are willing to admit, since they always fall back on some kind of statistics (of course, arbitrarily, none of the ones they don&#039;t use are to be trusted in this player&#039;s case) to back up their gut feeling. They&#039;d have to sometimes work to see past the first impression, and the initial assumptions seem to need to be overwhelmed by a new argument if the first thought is that the guy isn&#039;t a hall of famer. It&#039;s easier to find reasons to vote for someone you already want in there. You can use the stats to tell you who&#039;s best in whatever category in their era with conditional adjustments, but there ARE other considerations besides these that a voter is allowed to use, and really, even if those leadership, character, etc things weren&#039;t part of it, you can bet people would still consider them as part of someone&#039;s worthiness anyway. I could easily see Belle getting the Dick Allen treatment even if he played three more solid years for the Orioles before going down. There doesn&#039;t have to be consistency so there isn&#039;t. It turns out that Rice&#039;s big fat aura and power was more important in the end than Evans&#039; glove, temperment, patience, and longevity to voters. Doesn&#039;t mean he was BETTER.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let&#8217;s remember that every very, very good player doesn&#8217;t have to be in the hall of fame. Part of the fun of HOF is the vagueness, and how much is left to the individual voter to weight any factor. It&#8217;s like voting for anything else, the answer to a question applied at a different times can turn out differently maybe just by weighting one factor a little more or less &#8211; and you&#8217;re not WRONG either way, it&#8217;s an opinion.</p>
<p>I think character, personality, and proximity count in voting more than writers are willing to admit, since they always fall back on some kind of statistics (of course, arbitrarily, none of the ones they don&#8217;t use are to be trusted in this player&#8217;s case) to back up their gut feeling. They&#8217;d have to sometimes work to see past the first impression, and the initial assumptions seem to need to be overwhelmed by a new argument if the first thought is that the guy isn&#8217;t a hall of famer. It&#8217;s easier to find reasons to vote for someone you already want in there. You can use the stats to tell you who&#8217;s best in whatever category in their era with conditional adjustments, but there ARE other considerations besides these that a voter is allowed to use, and really, even if those leadership, character, etc things weren&#8217;t part of it, you can bet people would still consider them as part of someone&#8217;s worthiness anyway. I could easily see Belle getting the Dick Allen treatment even if he played three more solid years for the Orioles before going down. There doesn&#8217;t have to be consistency so there isn&#8217;t. It turns out that Rice&#8217;s big fat aura and power was more important in the end than Evans&#8217; glove, temperment, patience, and longevity to voters. Doesn&#8217;t mean he was BETTER.</p>
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		<title>By: David Gizmo</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done-with-updates/#comment-88440</link>
		<dc:creator>David Gizmo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:11:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done/#comment-88440</guid>
		<description>sw @ 46: Cone was hurt badly by the strikes of 1994 and early 1995.  In 1994, he won the Cy Young Award, but only made 23 starts (going 16-5, 2.94).  Had the season been played in full, he could have won 22 or 23 games.  The following year, Cone was 18-8 in 30 starts, missing about four starts due to the late start of the season.  It&#039;s certainly possible that he would&#039;ve won two of them.  

So had Cone won 22 games in 1994 and 20 in 1995, he would&#039;ve had an even 200 for his career, plus four 20-win seasons, which is a lot for his era.  He also would likely have gone above 3000 innings, for whatever that&#039;s worth, with around 2750 strikeouts, not to mention the five World Series rings and the perfect game.

I&#039;m not saying this would&#039;ve gotten Cone in, or that wins should necessarily be held in such high esteem, but his case would certainly be better with two more 20-win seasons and the minor milestone of 200 for his career.  

Now, had there not been a strike *and* Cone not had that aneurysm in 1996, he&#039;d be a much stronger candidate, but unfortunately that&#039;s the way it goes for many of the members of the &quot;Hall of Very Good.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>sw @ 46: Cone was hurt badly by the strikes of 1994 and early 1995.  In 1994, he won the Cy Young Award, but only made 23 starts (going 16-5, 2.94).  Had the season been played in full, he could have won 22 or 23 games.  The following year, Cone was 18-8 in 30 starts, missing about four starts due to the late start of the season.  It&#8217;s certainly possible that he would&#8217;ve won two of them.  </p>
<p>So had Cone won 22 games in 1994 and 20 in 1995, he would&#8217;ve had an even 200 for his career, plus four 20-win seasons, which is a lot for his era.  He also would likely have gone above 3000 innings, for whatever that&#8217;s worth, with around 2750 strikeouts, not to mention the five World Series rings and the perfect game.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not saying this would&#8217;ve gotten Cone in, or that wins should necessarily be held in such high esteem, but his case would certainly be better with two more 20-win seasons and the minor milestone of 200 for his career.  </p>
<p>Now, had there not been a strike *and* Cone not had that aneurysm in 1996, he&#8217;d be a much stronger candidate, but unfortunately that&#8217;s the way it goes for many of the members of the &#8220;Hall of Very Good.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Siberian Khatru</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done-with-updates/#comment-88438</link>
		<dc:creator>Siberian Khatru</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:07:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/11/29/one-and-done/#comment-88438</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m a sabermetric/stat guy through and through, but I sympathize w/Norm&#039;s &quot;memories not computers&quot; view of the HOF. I&#039;ve been a HOF hardass for years, with the philosophy being: If you have to make an argument for a guy, he shouldn&#039;t be enshrined. The HOF should have only instant, clear-cut, no-brainer types. Otherwise, you begin splitting hairs and lowering the bar -- &quot;Well, if Rice is in, then you should induct Player B, who had only 20 fewer HRs and 100 fewer RBIs than Rice.&quot; And then, &quot;Well, now that Player B is in, we should induct Player C -- he had only 15 fewer HRs than Player B.&quot; And so on. 

Eventually, Yuniesky Betancourt will be in because morons like Dayton Moore kept him employed for enough years.

I recognize that this is controversial. Like I said, I&#039;m a hardass on it. That&#039;s just me.

As for Dwight Evans, I must say that even as a Royals fan, I LOVED watching Evans play. I don&#039;t think he&#039;s a HOF (I&#039;m a hardass, remember) but he was so fun to watch. But then, I have something of a man-crush on cannon-armed RFs. Al Cowens FTW! And Sixto Lezcano, anyone?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m a sabermetric/stat guy through and through, but I sympathize w/Norm&#8217;s &#8220;memories not computers&#8221; view of the HOF. I&#8217;ve been a HOF hardass for years, with the philosophy being: If you have to make an argument for a guy, he shouldn&#8217;t be enshrined. The HOF should have only instant, clear-cut, no-brainer types. Otherwise, you begin splitting hairs and lowering the bar &#8212; &#8220;Well, if Rice is in, then you should induct Player B, who had only 20 fewer HRs and 100 fewer RBIs than Rice.&#8221; And then, &#8220;Well, now that Player B is in, we should induct Player C &#8212; he had only 15 fewer HRs than Player B.&#8221; And so on. </p>
<p>Eventually, Yuniesky Betancourt will be in because morons like Dayton Moore kept him employed for enough years.</p>
<p>I recognize that this is controversial. Like I said, I&#8217;m a hardass on it. That&#8217;s just me.</p>
<p>As for Dwight Evans, I must say that even as a Royals fan, I LOVED watching Evans play. I don&#8217;t think he&#8217;s a HOF (I&#8217;m a hardass, remember) but he was so fun to watch. But then, I have something of a man-crush on cannon-armed RFs. Al Cowens FTW! And Sixto Lezcano, anyone?</p>
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