Hall of Fame Futures
Posted: November 24th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 74 Comments »
OK, I have this idea based on Albert Pujols winning his third MVP in five years … it starts with this: I think Pujols at age 29 is a Hall of Famer right now. To me, it’s done. True, you have to play 10 years in the big leagues to be eligible for the Hall, so technically he is not yet eligible. But my point is not that old “he retires tomorrow” argument. No, my point is that in my eyes that no matter what he does on the field from this point on, the rest of his career, he has already locked up Hall of Fame status.
Look: In nine seasons, Pujols has only 16 fewer home runs than new Hall of Famer Jim Rice had in 16.
Look: His career 172 OPS+ ties him with Mantle and puts him ahead of Cobb.
Look: There are seven players in baseball history with 1,000 runs, 1,000 RBIs, 350 home runs and at least a .325 batting average. I know you can play all sorts of games by sorting numbers, but my point is: Ruth, Foxx, Williams, Gehrig, Musial, Pujols, DiMaggio.
So, Pujols is in. He will likely play many more years and he has a chance (as the old scribes used to write and the old announcers used to say) to have his own chapter in the record book. But the point here is that I think he has already clinched his spot in the Hall of Fame. The rest is just jockeying for position in the all-time great horse race.
Beyond Pujols, it’s hard to tell who among young players will thrive long enough to become Hall of Famers. At 29, Juan Gonzalez had already won two MVPs and hit 340 home runs — he seemed a cinch for 500 homers at a time when 500 homers meant automatic inclusion in the Hall of Fame. That didn’t happen. … Dale Murphy at 29 had won two MVPs, four consecutive Gold Gloves, had led the league in homers in back-to-back seasons, and he had also led the league in RBIs, in runs, in slugging percentage, in walks. And he was baseball’s ultimate gentleman too. Seemed like a dead lock Hall of Famer. That probably won’t happen either. … Vida Blue and Dwight Gooden were already troubled souls at 29, but they both had more than 150 victories and there was this sense that if they could just get their careers even slightly back on track … but, of course it did not quite work out.
Meanwhile, Randy Johnson at 29 was 68-56 with a 3.78 ERA and was only just beginning to show his pitching genius. Paul Molitor at 29 had a 113 OPS+, about 1,200 hits, a history of injuries and a drug rap on his resume. And so on.
So, it’s a foolish thing to try to predict what players under 30 will end up in Cooperstown. To finalize the point, if I tried to pick 10 players in 1985, I the list would have looked something like this:
1. Dale Murphy (not in)
2. Cal Ripken (in)
3. Rickey Henderson (in)
4. Pedro Guerrero (not in)
5. Wade Boggs (in)
6. Dave Stieb (not in)
7. Tim Raines (not in … yet)
8. Fernando Valenzuela (not in)
9. Eddie Murray (in)
10. Lance Parrish (not in)
So, six out of those 10 are not in. Well, yes, it’s a guessing game. But what the heck, right? Just know that these are just predictions. Some of these players — like Pujols — are well on their way. Others will need to improve dramatically.
The rules: I am picking 10 players — all younger than 30, who have either (A) played 500 games; (B) won 50 games or (C) saved 100 games — who I think will end up in the Hall of Fame. Here we go:
1. Albert Pujols. He is already in as far as I’m concerned.
2. Joe Mauer. He’s only 26, and like any 26 year old he has a lot of work to do to become a Hall of Famer player. But as the only American League catcher to ever win a batting title — and he has done it three times now — and as a remarkable hitter who has now added some home run power to the equation, I’m betting on him being a first ballot Hall of Famer.
3. Hanley Ramirez. Let me show you two shortstops after their first 925 games or so:
Shortstop No. 1: .323/.370/.555, OPS+ 134,
Shortstop No. 2: .320/.392/.470 OPS+ 122
They both played in big markets and on winning teams. They both won Rookie of the Year Awards. They both were All-Stars most of the time. Neither one won a Gold Glove and reports about their defense were sporadic. They both had terrific moments in the playoffs.
Shortstop No. 1 led the league in hitting twice, and at different times in hits, doubles, triples — he scored 100-plus runs six times and drove in 100-plus runs another four.
Shortstop No. 2 led also scored 100 runs six times and had driven in 100 RBIs once. He led the league in runs scored once and in hits once.
You have certainly guessed that No. 1 is Nomar Garciaparra, and No. 2 is Derek Jeter. And if you had tried to predict which of the two was the certain future Hall of Famer, I suspect you would have had a hard time doing it. To be honest, I probably would have gone with Nomar. Ah, but baseball careers can take such wild turns … crazy thing is that Nomar keeps signing these one-year deals and keeps plays his role as super sub, and I would guess that more and more people will forget or never know that at one point he looked to be as good a Hall of Fame bet as anyone.
Right now, Hanley Ramirez seems to me like a future Hall of Famer. He plays a premium defensive position (and the numbers indicate he really hasn’t been bad defensively the last two years despite a bad reputation), he just won a batting title, he hits with power, he has stolen 50 bases in a season. and he will take a walk.
His career numbers at age 25: .318/.386/.543.
Then again, Nomar’s numbers at a similar career point: .333/.382/.573.
Ya never know. I’m betting on Hanley, though.
4. David Wright. Yes, it was weird that he only hit 10 home runs in 2009. Weird and disconcerting because everything else about Wright’s season seemed to be more or less in line with the rest of his career. He hit doubles at the same pace, triples at the same pace, stole bases like he usually does and walked at roughly the same pace. He struck quite a bit more than usual, which could be a hint, but his average stayed about the same, his on-base percentage stayed about the same too.
He just stopped hitting home runs. It’s tempting to say this was because of the Mets new stadium … and that no doubt played a role. Wright’s home run swing fit old Shea Stadium. But truth is that while he hit only 5 home runs at home, he also hit only 5 home runs on the road. It’s a strange thing to see home run numbers drop so dramatically for a 26-year-old player, especially a player as good as Wright.
So, the question here: When thinking about future performance and such, how much stock do you put into a daunting home run drop? I don’t think you can just ignore it. Still, it seems to me that Wright is such a good player in so many ways — he hits for average, draws walks, steals bases, plays good third base defense (though his defensive numbers did fall off in 2009), and there’s reason to believe his home runs will come back. I still think he’s a good Hall of Fame bet. I think he’ll get there.
5. Miguel Cabrera. He did not deserve a first place MVP vote, but he’s just such a good hitter and he’s so young … I think he will simply bash his way into the Hall of Fame.
6. C.C. Sabathia. He has more wins at 29 than Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan, Bob Gibson, Warren Spahn and about 40 other Hall of Famers.* He also has fewer wins at 29 than Gooden, Blue, Milt Pappas, Fernando Valenzuela, Ken Holtzman and Wes Ferrell, among other non-Hall of Famers. So make of that what you will.
*If you care about pitcher wins, which, thankfully, fewer and fewer people do.
What makes Sabathia a good Hall of Fame bet is that even though he reached the big leagues at age 20, he has never had a BAD season. And he has had four exceptional seasons in a row — pitching for three different teams in both leagues. People in baseball will tell you that no pitcher is a sure thing, and it’s true. Injuries, shattered confidence, a slider that stops sliding, control issues, a tell that tips pitches — lots of things can derail a pitcher.
But Sabathia seems pretty close to a sure thing. He seems utterly comfortable and at the height of his powers with the Yankees. He figures to get great run support year after year, and he showed in the playoffs that he can pitch supreme baseball under the intense glare. I suspect he will win another Cy Young in the next three or four years. And I think he will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
7. Grady Sizemore. Injuries and general woes wrecked his 2009 season, and took him off the best-player-in-the-league watch list … but I’m betting on David Wright to get his power back, and I’m betting on Sizemore to return to form. He’s just 27, and a healthy Sizemore is well-above-average at every part of the game except throwing … he’s a well-above average defender in center, a well-above average baserunner, a well-above average offensive player with well-above average power. There just aren’t many complete players out there, and only a handful who are spectacularly complete. Yes, I’m betting on Sizemore to have a rebound and be one of the best in the game for a while.
One odd thing about Sizemore is that his batting average has dropped each of the last three seasons — from .290 to .277 to .268 and finally, last year, to .248. He walks quite a lot so that has made up for some of it. Still, it’s weird. I suspect a part of the problem is that it’s hard to punch up a good batting average when you strike out as often as Sizemore (he has struck out once every four or five at-bats his entire career). I think there has also been this weird vibe around Sizemore because he was expected to be one kind of player (fast, scrappy, moderate power, Johnny Damon type, good defense, leadoff hitter) and ended up being a slightly different player (still fast, big-time power, good defense, leadoff hitter whose skills seemed better suited for the middle of the lineup — numbers through age 26 match up to Barry Bonds).
For a while, we in the American League Central would have a fun argument — who is better, Grady Sizemore or Curtis Granderson? Two left-handed hitting center fielders with power and speed. Both had rough 2009 seasons for different reasons, and the argument has derailed somewhat. Granderson looks to be on the open market while Sizemore has to come back from injury and doubt. I hope the argument re-emerges but both players are so likable. Sizemore has some edges: He is better against left-handed pitching (though not great) and he’s almost two full-seasons younger than Granderson.
8. Mark Teixeira. There are a handful of 29-and-younger first basemen — Ryan Howard, Justin Morneau, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez — who can make a Hall of Fame case if they keep playing at this high level for a long time. Teixeira seems to me the likeliest of the group to do it. He’s a switch hitter, he’s in a great hitter’s park, he’s batting in the middle of what will be a great lineup, and he’s plays the sort of defense that will likely win him a lot of Gold Gloves*.
*The Doyen of Defense, John Dewan, wrote an interesting thing the other day. He was trying to determine if Torii Hunter or Adam Jones deserved their Gold Gloves. And while he hit several points, the one that stuck out for me was this: Adam Jones led the league with four home run saving catches. And Hunter has had five in the last three years — including one late in a game against the Royals during the 2009 season that I have burned in my memory because it was so bloody awesome.
Without getting too deep into it … this makes sense to me. I can see why a gift for making the great play could play a huge role in the Gold Glove voting. The voting is done by managers and coaches. These are people who, for the most part, are watching their own guys. They study opposing players to discover weaknesses or habits, but I doubt they spend a whole lot of time admiring players strengths and weaknesses, especially on defense.
So, I would imagine a great play — say a home run saving catch — echoes in the mind again and again and again. I talked about the Hunter home run — it was in the ninth inning, and it was spectacular, and I would bet that the entire Royals coaching staff thought about it 25 times during the season. When the time came to vote for the outfielder Gold Glove, I have to believe that catch was prominent in the coaches thinking … especially because Hunter had done it so many times before.
Well, I think Mark Teixeira will win many Gold Gloves for the same reason. He makes some great defensive plays … he has a reputation for it now. He’s good defensively, but the reputation is even better.
Give you an example: It has become something close to accepted fact that Teixeira’s ability to scoop bad throws out of the dirt was a huge factor in the Yankees defense improving in 2009 (and is often one of the keys mentioned when discussing Derek Jeter’s good defensive year). Only thing is, Dewan says that the one thing that former first baseman Jason Giambi was good at defensively was, yes, scooping bad throws out of the dirt.
Now, if you are a Yankees fan you may simply say Dewan doesn’t know what he’s talking about … you watch every Yankees game, and you saw Giambi and you watch Teixeira and you know … but I’m telling you, John studied this thing more thoroughly than you have. He has looked at every single play on video — every one. He has catalogued every play. He says that, yes, Teixeira is a much, much better defensive first baseman than Giambi. But it’s not because of his ability to scoop throws.
Still, with the Gold Glove, what you SEE is what matters. Teixeira make diving plays. And he looks so smooth scooping bad throws out the dirt. So in addition to BEING a good defensive first baseman — and he is good — he LOOKS like a good defensive first baseman which helps too. I think Tex will keep winning Gold Gloves for the next 10 years unless someone who looks better comes along.
9. Ryan Zimmerman. I’m going to go off the board for my last two choices — that is I’m going to take young players who have not accomplished all that much yet. But I’m betting on them being two of the biggest stars in baseball the next 10 years or so.
First: Zimmerman. I’ve written this before, I think: I remember when the Royals had the No. 2 pick in the 2005 draft, and everyone — EVERYONE — said that Alex Gordon was the pick. Gordon was the best hitter in college baseball, he was a Midwestern guy, he had a swing eerily similar to George Brett, heck, his brother was NAMED AFTER GEORGE BRETT. The Royals had no choice. They had to take him.
But there were a couple of high-ranking people in the Royals organization who seemed to think Zimmerman might end up the better player. It wasn’t that they were down on Gordon. They just thought Zimmerman’s defense was so superior that he was ready to play third base (or shortstop according to one of the Royals executives) in the big leagues immediately. As for the bat, they were not sure how good a hitter Zimmerman would become, but they thought he was such a good athlete and so adaptable that they expected he would hit.
Well, here it is, five years later … and Gordon is still trying to find himself while Zimmerman had a superior season at 24. He punched up a 133 OPS+, banged 33 home runs, managed a .373 on-base percentage against lefties, and won a Gold Glove that is truly golden. His +31 Dewan Plus/Minus was preposterously good for third base defense.
It is only his first exceptional year, and, to paraphrase the old golf line, the slums of Chicago are filled with third basemen who had one exceptional year (Hello Bill Mueller! Good to see you Fernando Tatis! Gotta run Dave Hollins! And how about the rhyming Paul Schaal?). But he’s so young, he’s so good defensively, and he seems to have taken that quantum leap forward. I think Evan Longoria (who is not on this list because he doesn’t have the requisite 500 games) is a good choice to become the next dominant player in the game. But Zimmerman is only a year older, he’s probably better defensively, and he had almost precisely the same offensive year in 2009.
Longoria: .281/.364/.526
Zimmerman: .292/.364/.525
10. Zack Greinke. Well, you knew this was coming, right? I know people think I’m in the bag for Greinke, and they’re right. And I know people think that he’s still an uncertain commodity, that he’s only had one great year and is not that far removed from 2006 when he walked away from baseball. In that, I think, they’re wrong.
Greinke became a full-time starter again at the end of the 2007 season. Here are a few of his numbers since then (including his final seven starts in 2007) compared to some of the best in baseball:
Greinke: 72 starts, 2.71 ERA, 466 innings, 456 Ks, 117 walks, 36 home runs.
Lincecum: 66 starts, 2.55 ERA, 452 innings, 526 Ks, 152 walks, 21 home runs.
Halladay: 66 starts, 2.78 ERA, 485 innings, 414 Ks, 74 walks, 40 home runs.
Hernandez: 65 starts, 2.93 ERA, 439 innings, 392 Ks, 151 walks, 32 home runs.
Johan Santana: 59 starts, 2.78 ERA, 401 innings, 352 Ks, 109 walks, 43 home runs.
And so on. This isn’t just one year. This is who Zack Greinke has become. The truth is that, if you were watching closely, you could see greatness building in Greinke. I predicted before the season that Greinke would win the Cy Young in 2009 — one of the craziest predictions I ever had come true. But I had the advantage of watching Greinke pitch almost every time out in 2008 — I could see what a great pitcher he was becoming.
Lincecum is not eligible for my list just yet because he has not yet won 50 games … I do think Lincecum is an awfully good bet for the Hall of Fame. Better than Greinke? I don’t think so. I know many people prefer Lincecum’s greatness, but I think a lot of that is because Lincecum pitches in the National League*. And, as good and as well publicized a year as Greinke had, I think many people STILL don’t quite get how good he is.
*Just as a starting point: Lincecum has had 173 plate appearances against pitchers in his career — they are hitting .095/.142/.116 against him with 68 Ks against 8 walks — add a little some of that to Greinke’s totals and see what you get.
Here’s what I have seen: Greinke has things figured out. I don’t know that his 2010 season can be as good as 2009 — seasons THAT GREAT don’t just happen all the time. But I do think that over the next few years he actually will get better with a better team around him — which has to happen sooner or later. He’s a great competitor with four plus pitches and supreme confidence. Yes, he will have to pitch at a very high level for many years to become a Hall of Famer … but I think he has it in him.
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I did a couple posts on my thoughts on possible future HOFers on my blog: http://completement.wordpress.com/2009/01/15/future-hall-of-fame-candidates-young-uns/ and http://completement.wordpress.com/2009/01/14/future-hall-of-fame-candidates-players-in-their-primes/
Where’d number five get off to?
Where’s No. 5? Or did you leave that blank out of respect for Pujols?
Editor’s note: Updated. I had left off Miggy … probably blanked out after he got the first place vote on the MVP ballot.
Obviously this is a subjective list and it’s impossible to be “right” or “wrong,” but I am surprised that Miguel Cabrera isn’t on this list and Mark Teixeira is.
Cabrera has a higher career AVG and OBP (trails by .003 in SLG) and a better OPS+ (Cabrera 140, Tex 136). He’s three full years younger but only trails Tex by 33 HR and 45 RBI. And despite his reputation, Cabrera isn’t fat or lazy (at least not anymore), so I don’t think he’s going to fall apart all of a sudden. Yeah, the drinking thing might be a problem, but maybe he’ll take care of that.
Circle me Tulo will make this list
Wa-hoo-wa. It’s good to see Ryan Zimmerman on the list. I really hope he’ll continue to play like this for the next 15-20 years so the only UVA alumni in the Hall of Fame won’t be Eppa Rixey, who is a fine person with a fascinating history…but come on…he has fewer wins, more losses, and fewer shutouts than Bert Blyleven!
Joe,
Love these Hall of Fame columns. Keep ‘em coming.
1. Pujols. Uh, no kidding.
2. Mauer. On track, but I don’t place bets on catchers with knee injuries. I hope he lasts (unless the Yankees sign him). Maybe.
3. Ramirez. Like catchers, SS takes a toll on ones body. I’d love to see him have a long productive career. Maybe
4. Wright. Something doesn’t seem right. Ask again next November.
5. Huh?
6. C.C. Looking good. However, pitcher is the least predictable position. If he is healthy and with the Yankee offense behind him I’d put him at 60% chance.
7. Grady. I hope you’re right. As an Indians fan I’m used to being disappointed. 15% chance.
8. Tex. Probably a lock. Putting up great numbers and he stays healthy. 78% chance.
9. Zimmerman. Aw, who the hell knows. 2% chance.
10. Greinke. Wow, still just 25 years old??? Really? Still pitching is unpredictable so I’ll say 10% chance.
No. 5 is Billy Butler … no, Joakim Soria … (kidding, I’ll guess it was Felix Hernandez).
Too nitpicky that Ryan Howard is 30 as of last week?
he is number 5. just wasnt much to say about him lol hes a beast
Joe -
While Zack deserved his Cy Young this year, I’ll throw out the fanbole that Felix Hernandez will have the better career.
Felix has more career wins (58-50), more career strikeouts (810-750), and a better career ERA+ (125-120).
Zack is 26. Felix is only 23.
This year, Zack showed his peak, and it is unbelievably lofty. But Felix was nipping at his heels and is still years away from his peak.
They’re both amazing and I hope they both sail into the Hall of Fame. But if I had to tab one for greatness . . . it’d be King Felix.
Ah, Pujols is quite amazing.
After all, he graduated from my high school! (Fort Osage High School)
Pujols auctioning car for charity — http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/2009-Chevrolet-Traverse-LTZ-AWD-Navigation-Pujols_W0QQitemZ150391641555QQcmdZViewItemQQptZUS_Cars_Trucks?hash=item23040a55d3#ht_33372wt_1165
If Carl Crawford doesn’t break down physically, he stands a chance at 3000 hits.
Interesting post, Zimmerman seems like a stretch, but if he wins 5+ gold gloves who knows. If I was to go off the board, I would pick Justin Upton.
I wonder what Greinke’s ERA would’ve been if he pitched in the NL… never facing a DH, but a pitcher & a hand full of pinch hitters instead. I think then, people would see the full “Greatness of Greinke”. He’d probably throw a 0.99 ERA or some crazy thing.
I was just lookin’ at Pedro Guerrero’s career last week & couldn’t help but notice the fatness of ‘80-’89, he posted a 148 OPS+ and a .383 OBP…along with 191 HR’s & 722 RBI’s.
How about a 25 year old 1B that already has 160 HRs and a career line of .284/.381/.550 and posted a line of .299/.412/.602 last season? It gets lost because of how good Pujols has been, but Prince Fielder has a ridiculously good season last year.
Obviously a lot can go wrong between 25 and Cooperstown, but he’s off to a sensational start and seems to have the right tools to put up monster numbers from 26-30. I guess my primary question is whether he’ll be able to keep his weight under control and play into his 30s. I certainly hope so, because it’s so fun to watch him hit.
His defense has been mediocre to bad based on UZR (although 2009 was his best defensive season to date), but I doubt that bad defense would keep a hulking 1B slugger with huge offensive numbers out of the HOF.
I was thinking as I scrolled down, “Chase Utley Chase Utley Chase Utley Chase Utley” but then I looked him up and he’s 31 years old next month.
P.S. “I’m betting that this guy’s going to keep improving. I’m betting that this other guy’s going to be a star. I’m betting … I”m betting … betting …” geez, Joe, sounds like you’ve got a gambling problem.
But you see, #19 Ugggo, I actually have much, much better boots:
http://www.findthespam.com/
Pujols @ 29 is 5th all time in MVP shares. You have to scan down to Parker in 28th place to find an eligible player who hasn’t been inducted. Yah, I think you can gamble on him.
I thought McCann might belong in the list, but it’s hard to say HOF to a 25 year old fighting eye problems who hasn’t ever gotten an MVP vote.
It seems to me, if we are inducting about two players a year, then we ought to be able to identify five “no brainer” choices and another 15 or so maybes. I’m surprised that this list doesn’t seem deeper – Pujols, Mauer, Ramirez, and after that it seems we are drawing from the 15 pool instead of the 5 pool.
Need to look at this historically, I suppose.
Great list, though I agree with Craig Weaver [#12] in that I’d put King Felix ahead of Greinke.
As I think I’ve said before in these comments, it’ll be interesting to see whether Sabathia’s bulk hurts him in the long run. Never mind the fear of arm problems – that’s a lot of weight and strain to put on a pitcher’s legs.
And, as Joe mentioned, you can’t really bank on pitchers at all. CC’s top comps on B-R are Ramon Martinez, Tim Hudson and Jack McDowell. No slouches, but no Cooperstown locks, either.
Weight could also derail Prince Fielder. His body type is not one that tends to age well, though if he’s going to miss this list, it’s just barely.
Others mentioned in the comments (Tulo, Upton) didn’t make Joe’s games played cutoff. So does Ryan Braun, who’s off to a pretty impressive start to his career. The cutoff was a good idea – a couple of years ago, B.J. Upton would probably have seemed a sure bet to make this list and now I’ve heard people wonder if he’s basically done. Granderson would have gotten mention too, and now people are talking about him as a platoon player.
Also, while Carl Crawford is a great player, I was surprised to see how much less impressive he is than I thought from a pure hitting standpoint. Career OBP of .335, career OPS+ of 103 (single-season high of 117). Of course, his baserunning and defense make him considerably more valuable, but for some reason I thought he was more of a force at the plate.
But yeah, about Pujols…I have a feeling that if he held a press conference tomorrow saying that he was quitting baseball to focus on helping orphans, the Hall might bend the 10-year rule for him. Not many players have had a nine-year stretch like he’s had at any point, much less at the start of their careers.
Tulo: 432 games
Braun (not that anyone mentioned him but I was about to before I checked): 422 games
One more big year for each of them and they make this list.
Miggy . . . I don’t know. At 26, he can fall out of bed hung over and hit anything close to the plate. Another couple of years worth of benders and it might not come so easily to him.
And CC’s mighty big. I foresee knee and hip problems for him, and that tends to lead to arm problems. I can’t think of too many pitchers of his size who had Hall of Fame careers. He ain’t just tall, he’s major-league heavy.
I’ll go non-PC here and say CC’s weight will be a huge factor as he ages. I suspect that when his skills begin to diminish, they will go downhill lightening fast. And as a result his counting numbers will not end up high enough to generate Hall of Fame support.
I think people overblow CC’s weight factor. Yes, he is heavy, but so does Daivd Wells, who is not a HOFer but has a very long career. CC is an inning eater and he has a very good lineup to back him up. Normally that means lots of wins and good winning %. And he has a Cy Young award already. The voters like all those things. I know no pitcher is a sure thing when we are talking about HOF chance. But CC really has a good chance compare to others.
Miggy may be one of the biggest jacka**es in the sport.
However, there’s this:
Similar Batters through Age 26
Ken Griffey (940)
Hank Aaron (934) *
Orlando Cepeda (934) *
Frank Robinson (924) *
Hal Trosky (890)
Mickey Mantle (882) *
Al Kaline (880) *
Andruw Jones (879)
Joe Medwick (869) *
Albert Pujols (865)
*denotes HOFer
Although the fact that Andruw Jones is on thew above list doesn’t bode well for Cabrera, since of all of the above players, Andruw seems to closest in physical type.
And his HOF case will be bolstered by the fact that he was one of the greatest glove men to ever play center field.
You just never know. I can recall saying in the early ’90’s that Canseco and Strawberry were absolutely certain first-ballot guys. If someone had said, “Uh, no, but Craig Biggio and Ramon Martinez’s little brother WILL be,” I would have laughed in their face.
Nomar was/is such a beautiful player. Too bad he got hurt. His re-invigoration, though temporary with the Dodgers was fun to watch.
No real arguments with the list, but I might put Hanley ahead of Joe Mauer, just because I assume there’s a greater burnout rate for catchers than there is for shortstops. Although, I don’t know that this assumption is true and Nomar certainly provides a good counterpoint.
I think Pedroia might warrant a place too. Not that he’s better than the people on the list, but:
1. He’s got major awards already
2. He’s got a rep that sportswriters love (a good Eckstein!)
3. He’s on a team that is likely to be very successful
4. He plays a position where the statistical requirements to get in are lower than they are for others – he doesn’t have to hit for much power.
Just realized Pedroia falls just under the 500 game threshold.
Another name that should be considered – Justin Verlander (age 26 – 65 wins).
He’s had four full years in the big leagues, and in three of those has averaged 18-8 with a 3.58 ERA (roughly) and has already led the league in wins and strikeouts once each. Granted, his outlier season in 2008 was horrible, which pulls his overall numbers down a bit, but as a Tigers fan I’ll take 3 years out of 4 like that.
3 first basemen?
And Youkilis is the third best defensive 1B in MLB since 2007. I know he’s too old for this list, but I have to think if he can play at a high level until, like, 35-36, that he MIGHT stand a chance.
Of course, it’s a bit of a longshot, he’ll probably need about 6000 more PA’s of goodness (well, 4500-5000 of goodness and 1000-1500 of averageness).
Bill Mueller had only one exceptional year in his career, but his three years with Boston were freaking awesome.
[...] 2009 MLB award voting now in the rear view mirror, Joe Posnanski has deemed St. Louis Cardinal Albert Pujols a Hall of Fame lock at age 29. Winning his third MVP award in five years, and looking at his numbers, it would be [...]
Two points- first Hanley is an even better player than Nomar, Jeter and A-Rod were at that point in their careers because he plays in a worse home park.
Second what about comparing Sabathia to Mussina? Both were considered among the top pitchers in baseball when they signed massive contracts with the Yankees but Mussina remained a good, not Cy Young caliber pitcher through his time with the Yankees and ended up as a borderline candidate despite not really being a disappointment. That line is still possible for CC, despite having an advantage in the hardware department. If through his contract he doesn’t win another Cy Young or WS and ends up with 17-19 wins and in the back end of the top 5 in ERA, Ks and WHIP like Mussina did he could end up a similar borderline candidate. Of course his contemporaries would also have to look a lot better which would mean that at least a couple of the Halladay, Grienke, Lincecum and Hernandez would have to put themselves into a generational tier above the others.
[...] Dispatch 3. Joe Posnanski is selling Hall of Fame futures for players under 30. Who’s buying? JoePo4. Wha? Jim Rice thinks Jacoby Ellsbury(notes) could be Boston’s next Hall of Famer. Over The [...]
Pujols can easily make the case that he’s the best right handed hitter ever.
Jimmie Foxx through age 29:
.334/.435/.628, 1852 hits, 379 HR, 167 OPS+ in 6605 PA.
Pujols:
.334/.427/.628, 1717 hits, 366 HR, 172 OPS+ in 6082 PA.
Foxx had his last good season at age 33, and played his last game at age 37. Just a few more years at an elite level (Foxx had OPS+ of 182 and 188 at ages 30 and 31, resp) and Pujols will surpass Foxx.
I think David Wright lost his home run swing at the same place that Gary Gaetti did about 20 years ago (not that I think Gaetti was ever as good as Wright, but I can’t forget Bill James’ snarky comments about Gaetti’s missing home runs in an old Baseball Abstract).
Ryan Howard is a really interesting case. He’s put up monster numbers, and has had, arguably, the most accomplished career behind Pujols (ROY, MVP, NLCS MVP, World Series champ). But his left/right splits are so bad that he can’t quite be considered an elite player. I wonder, when his career is over, if the perception of him rendered a nonfactor so easily will stick beyond what I’d imagine will be gargantuan career numbers.
BTW, Phillies broadcaster Gary Matthews referred to Cliff Lee this season as a “surefire maybe Hall-of-Famer”. I would think that was a terminable offense.
Mark Daniel – I think that you have to include Rogers Hornsby in any discussion for greatest RH hitter.
Career:
.358/.434/.577 with 175 OPS+
Through age 29:
.363/.431/.580 with 183 OPS+
While the Rajah did not hit the HR’s that Pujols and Foxx did, he hit for a significantly higher average.
Three names that deserve to be there:
1. Félix Hernández
2. Prince Fielder
3. Adrián González
Why the 100 saves qualifier if you’re not going to pick a closer?
The Greinke numbers are misleading as they’re heavily reliant on his excellent 2009. His resume isn’t nearly as accomplished as Lincecum’s, and he’s a year older.
I don’t know if he makes the Top 10, but the only guy from the Red Sox who currently deserves mention is Papelbon. All due respect to Youk and Pedey, but they both need to step up their game significantly to garner consideration. Papelbon is already playing at a HOF level, he just need to keep it up for another 5 or 6 years. That would put him at or around 400 saves, and if he keeps his career WHIP at or below 1.00 with a sub-2.50 ERA he’s in. While the benchmarks for closers are still largely undecided, and there’s a chance Rivera makes it harder for other closers to follow him in by setting a ridiculously high bar, I think Paps deserves mention.
I’ll go with Robinson Cano as a darkhorse candidate.
He’s got the position and the swing to make a decent run at 3,000 hits, health provided.
Now if he could only learn to take a walk.
Joe said that Greinke “will get better with a better team around him “. Is that code for “after he leaves as a free agent”?
This ground is well-trodden, but while Frank Thomas started later than Pujols, he was better (in non-counting stats, due to his later start) than King Albert through age 29.
.330/.452/.600 in a tougher hitting environment than Pujols has enjoyed adds up to a 182 OPS+ in those years.
Of course, the following year he dropped to .265/.381/.480 (125 OPS+) and followed that up by hitting .305 but dropping to 15 HR, so I suppose that could be a don’t-count-your-chickens style cautionary tale.
Howard’s splits probably wouldn’t keep him out of the hall – his MVP totals show that voters LOVE the guy – but he does run the risk of falling victim to the rapid drop associated with bad-bodied players. He could (but hopefully won’t) someday be mentioned in the same breath as Mo Vaughn.
I agree that Youk has a ways to go. He’s had a couple of very good (and surprisingly underrated considering he’s a Boston guy) seasons, but he’s 30 and has 705 hits and 93 HR career. He’s more valuable than those stats show, I know, but will he last long enough and will the voters acknowledge his OBP enough to get him anywhere near the hall? Given the glut of 1B awaiting the hall, I doubt he’ll come terribly close.
As for Papelbon, there are already concerns about him slipping. Given the flameout rate for closers and the still-undetermined criteria for H0Fers at that position, I’d think any young guy is a longshot at best.
If I were to HAVE TO pick one young closer, though, I’d probably go with K-Rod. A year younger than Papelbon, 88 more saves, all-time save record…he most definitely HAS slipped, but he has some flashy (if shallow) qualifications.
Interesting to note that you only have 2 pitchers and 8 hitters. Do you think that at this stage it’s harder to precit pitchers or are there just many more good young hitters than pitchers at this stage?
[...] brings us to today’s Poz post on likely future Hall-of-Famers currently under 30. It’s an entertaining (if unsurprising) [...]
Halladay’s not a Hall of Famer?
Bill @ #43, you beat me to it!
The optimist in me hopes that Joe was implying that surely the Royals eventually have to put a better team around him – but the realist in me IMMEDIATELY thought, “Oh, Joe means when he leaves as a free agent…”
@25
Although the fact that Andruw Jones is on thew above list doesn’t bode well for Cabrera, since of all of the above players, Andruw seems to closest in physical type.
I just wanted to use your stat to point out that my team signed Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel this offseason. Could someone send a note to Kenny Williams and remind him that it is 2009 and not 1999?
I know, I know good bench players blah blah blah, and that there is no great free agents out there. I guess I should just have faith.
Pretty good list by Joe, although like he said, Juan Gone always makes me nervous about forecasting HOF possibilities. I don’t think Greinke will get enough W’s, and if you think it’s hard to win the Cy Young without W’s, try convincing the Hall of Fame. Circle me Bert?
*Er, make that “is no great free agent” or “are no great free agents” out there. Joe, you need an edit button.
The point is there are no free agents that I’m a-lookin and I’m a-liking.
It begs the question, doesn’t it?
One guy who I find fascinating, and perhaps the Dale Murphy of our time:
Thru Age 29:
.267/.345/.505, 116 OPS+
- No MVP, but very well got robbed in 2005 when he put up a 136 OPS+ and 51 HR.
– Probably the generation’s best defensive player at his position (Ten consecutive Gold Gloves)
- Averaged 157 games played a season his first ten full years.
- #1 BR comp thru age 29: Frank Robinson.
Not a lot of HOF buzz for Andruw Jones these days.
Three seasons later, and he’s signing a 500k one-year deal with the White Sox, where he might not beat Alex Rios out for a roster spot.
In 2007, TELL me that AJ wouldn’t have made this list…
Re: Andruw
I’ve always liked him, ever since his teenage World Series home runs in Yankee Stadium, but something is pretty fishy. In the year when steroid testing becomes mandatory, a player changes overnight from one of the greatest players of all time, into a .160 hitter with no power….
Weird.
And yet, looking at the above-mentioned Jimmie Foxx and Rogers Hornsby, sometimes truly great players just hit an absolute wall. I know Foxx was a heavy drinker, but what did Hornsby do? It doesn’t make sense.
What did Hornsby do? Nothing. He was a middle infielder who stopped hitting for power when he hit his mid thirties. He was an all time best with the bat, average to below average with the glove, and an all around overly focused on himself jerk. Whatever folks think of him, he had a five year stretch very few can match. 1921 to 1925 he maintained an average over .400. We marvel today when a hitter manages a couple months over .400.
Eyebleaf,
Halladay’s too old for this list, according to the parameters Joe set out. The list is only for guys under 30 and Doc’s 32. As much as I love watching him pitch, though, he still has some work to do to make the Hall. I don’t think 148 wins is going to cut it for anyone, unless they have a Koufax-like run in there somewhere.
Bellwether Johnson,
Jones didn’t exactly get robbed in ‘05. He finished over 100 points of OPS behind Pujols, and more than 150 points below Derrek Lee. As I recall, the general consensus was that his defense had slipped a bit by then, too, dropping him from “all-time great defensive CF” to “very good defensive CF.”
He was no Dale Murphy at the plate, either. I do think he’ll make for a hell of an interesting HoF case, but ultimately, I think he’ll fall short. Not enough counting stats, not enough offensive dominance, not enough longevity. It’s a shame he dropped off so precipitously.
Separately, beyond my comments about Hornsby, evaluation of any player from that generation has to keep in mind the fact that the economics of baseball was very different back then. Ruth did not make millions. Most players in their thirties were looking for outside employment that afforded some measure of security. Jimmy Foxx ended up working as a court bailiff with one of my uncles in Cleveland.
No Brian McAnn? A year younger than Mauer, more homers, Nearly as many RBI’s in one less full season. Absolutely kills righties. Surprisingly similar in many sabermetric categories.
Now, I’m not saying he’s as good as Mauer (he’s not) but Heap takes good care of the pitchers, is learning from a guy who has a cannon (David Ross), and dude can rake. No doubt will go down as first or second best catcher of this era, barring injury.
[...] Dispatch 3. Joe Posnanski is selling Hall of Fame futures for players under 30. Who’s buying? JoePo4. Wha? Jim Rice thinks Jacoby Ellsbury(notes) could be Boston’s next Hall of Famer. Over The [...]
Obviously this list is mostly hitters but that makes sense as they are less likely to breakdown then pitchers. Greinke is a bit of a favourite for you Joe and I appreciate your remarks about Lincecum getting to face pitchers, its a valid point. The think that gets me though and that people don’t highlight enough is how few home runs Lincecum gives up. That along with his phenomenal strikeout powers is why he is so dominant and will continue to be so.
Crawford, reasonable chance. Felix Hernandez and Verlander big omissions.
Considering his position – Cano has great chance, still about 27. 2nd baseman with .310 BA, may have many post seasons. If he learns to walk once more every 8 games, will have a real good career.
Youkilis just turned 30, so I guess he is out, and started at a late age.
Also funny how K-Rod has fallen off the cliff.
Johan Santana HAS to be a surer bet for the HOF than either Sabathia or Grienke.
Echoing previous comment re: Ryan Howard turning 30 last week, would also like to point out that Adam Dunn just hit the big three-oh on Nov. 9. Even though he’s fat, can’t play defense, has only one All Star appearance, and has never finished higher then 26th in MVP voting, the Big Donkey is going to be in the H of F someday because he’s going to whack 600 bombs.
Numbers for Dunn and Howard, two dudes born 10 days apart, on their 30th birthdays:
Dunn: 5,417 PA, .249-.383-.520, 316 HR, 780 R, 1,433 SO
Howard: 3,145 PA, .279-.376-.586, 222 HR, 465 R, 878 SO
Imagine what Howard’s numbers would be right now if he hadn’t languished at Triple-A in ‘04 and first half of ‘05 while Ed Wade’s free-agent prize Thome raked for the big club (albeit with a much heftier price tag than Howard would’ve bore at that time).
Heh, I knew this whole thing was an exercise to get Grienke in at #10. Well played Joe!
[...] consider Joe Posnanski to be a pretty smart guy. Having said that, anytime you rank the top 10 players under 30 who will make it to the Hall Of Fame, you take some big risks. Posnanski recognizes the risks right [...]
What about Albert Belle? His career was cut short by his hip injury. His stats were off the charts, and if he was better liked he would be in the Hall of Fame. What about Al Oliver? Lifetime .300 hitter with over 2700 hits, and he is not in the Hall of Fame. In recent years, there are people being added to the Hall of Fame who pall in comparison to those who have been omitted. The HOF has become way too political. By the way, I don’t think Jim Rice is a HOF.
Belle definitely was a great hitter in every way, including his lifetime 143 OPS+, composed of a BA of .295, OBP of .369, and SLG of .564. Too bad about his personality, but then one can say that about a ton or two of other players too.
And his peak? OPS+ of 193 and 177 in ‘94 and ‘95; and in the 144-game ‘95, 50 homers and 52 doubles, which pro-rates to 56 homers and 59 doubles. Ridiculous! Nobody, as I recall, had ever hit 50 of each in a full season, let alone in a season that was only 8/9ths as long as a regular season.
Oliver, however, while a BA of .303 is just dandy, had a mediocre OBP of .344 (just 41 points above his BA) and a lousy SLG of .451, adding up to an OPS+ of only 121 which, while also just dandy, is hardly in the same league as Joey’s.
So, IMHO, Belle’s in and Oliver, along with Rice, is out.
I don’t see Matt Wieters anywhere. Such a shame because the postcards have already been printed!
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/thetoydepartment/matt-wieters-hof-postcard.jpg
Wright’s home run drop off reminds me of Brett in the 70’s when from ages 24-26 he hit 22, 9, & 23 homers.
We all need a time machine to see how these work out.
I think Sabathia’s a lock – he’s going to be piling up wins like mad with the Yankees. I think Mauer is indeed chancy – unless he stops catching (which seems unlikely) – he’s a (bad/chronic) knee injury waiting to happen. Texiera I think will be consistent, and have lots of media exposure. What “consistent” consists of I suppose is the question, but I think he’ll end up being one of those unexciting inductees.
Prince Fielder got no respect for his 2009. He did have one hell of a year. I believe, like Howard, there’s a cliff out there waiting for him to fall off of, but it does illustrate how people look at things. As they said in Bonds’ heyday, the NL MVP, non-Pujols category. IF he matures well, it’s not going to take many seasons for him to be high on this list.
And what about Albert? He seems to have fallen off the earth in these discussions. I think if we seriously start considering “horse’s-ass” as a legitimate negative, things might get pretty slim.
I don’t know if the criteria just made it so, but I can see why there’s only 2 pitchers on the list. Who knows? I think unless a guy is 29 (i.e. half way there), it’s almost impossible to guess. I know he doesn’t fit the standards, but I think Lincecum is god – in ten years? Clueless.
In my mind, I have considered Albert Belle to be in the “No Way” category, but a look at his career numbers can be quite revealing. He was about the best hitter of his era. His teammates and coaches always came to his defense when writers layed into him, saying he was a good teammate and serious student of the game.
And Canseco has gone on record as saying that Belle is one of the few sluggers from that era NOT on steroids. Considering that Jose has been about 100% accurate in his steroid allegations, this changes my mind about Belle. (his body type and temper seemed to scream “roid rage.” Maybe not).
Nobody will weep if he’s never inducted, but like Dick Allen, you could say that he was not just a HOF talent, but an upper-tier HOF talent.
I’m turning this exercise into a competition with my friends. But they’ve asked if I can provide some sort of roster of available players.
Does anyone know any sites/search tools that would allow me to find a list of players who fit Joe’s qualifications who have also been picked for an All-Star game (I figure that might narrow the list, slightly)?
[...] Hall of Fame Futures [...]
As a Yankees fan who watches every game, I can attest that Giambi did indeed scoop balls out of the dirt very well. Even I, a rampant Giambi-hater, could concede that, despite his oafish awkwardness, number 25 made some difficult stabs at first. The only point of difference I would make between Tex and Giambi in this regard is that Giambi’s range for scoops was likely significantly less than Tex’s. I think that a few times over the course of the season Tex stretched and scooped to save a throwing error, which Giambi, with his very limited agility, could not do nearly as well.
Adrian Gonzalez