Mauer Pauer: Man of the Hauer
Posted: November 23rd, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 86 Comments »
So, it looks like I spent another sports year feeling pre-agitated about things that did not come especially close to happening. Zack Greinke won the Cy Young Award … he won it rather easily. There was no sudden and overpowering push to get Jack Morris into the Hall of Fame while Bert Blyleven writhes in baseball limbo. The Cleveland Browns did not hire Eric Mangini.
OK, well, wait, sometimes dread does come to life.
Mostly, though, Joe Mauer won the MVP award. Ahhh. Peace at last. You probably know by now that I’ve been pushing Joe Mauer for the MVP for a long time now. I thought he was the MVP in 2006, when he hit .347/.429/.507 and became the first American League catcher to ever win a batting title. The MVP that year went to his Twins’ teammate Justin Morneau, who finished ahead of Mauer on EVERY SINGLE BALLOT, including the ballots of the two Minnesota writers. The big argument that year, you might recall, was that the MVP should have been Derek Jeter. Few cared about Mauer. So I just assumed I and a few of my friends had just gotten it wrong.
Then, in 2008, I thought Mauer should have won the MVP again. And this time I had an MVP vote — so I voted for him. Mauer hit .328/.413/.451, became the second American League catcher to win a batting title (after Mauer), and, whatever it’s worth, he also won the Gold Glove. I’m not sure what that’s worth … even bold analysts tend to get a bit nervous when it comes to judging catcher defense. I’ve heard opinions ranging from “Mauer is the best defensive catcher in the league” to “Mauer is overrated defensively” to “Mauer is dreadful defensively.” My own observation (which I do not trust much at all) is that he’s very good defensively, solid at the fundamentals, but streaky at throwing out baserunners. Whatever, the case he’s a great, great hitter — remarkable considering how difficult it is to hit over a long season when playing catcher. He finished fourth in the MVP voting in 2008 and again finished behind his teammate Justin Morneau. And again, I just shrugged and figured, “Hey, wrong again.”
Then came this year. Mauer missed the first month of the season. He returned May 1 to face the Kansas City Royals, and his first at-bat he homered. Now, admittedly, it was a home run off of Sidney Ponson, which should only count as about .6 of an official home run. But it was no fluke. For three days, I watched Mauer go 7-for-10 against the Royals with a homer and two doubles. In my memory, there were no cheap hits either. He crushed everything.
And Mauer kept crushing the ball. His first 45 games, he hit .417 with 14 home runs. He slugged .744. I talk sometimes about the hottest hitters ever — George Brett in the summer of 1980, Rod Carew in May and June of 1977 (.439/.494/.670 in a pitcher’s era), Ted Williams throughout 1957, Barry Bonds at the start of the 2004 season*.
*You know, we all believe we have the Barry Bonds story figured out, one way or another. But no matter what you believe: The first 25 games of the 2004 season, Barry Bonds was intentionally walked 22 times. His numbers: .463/.704/1.111 with 10 home runs, 44 walks and 6 strikeouts. No matter what he may have taken to get there, those numbers are simply beyond belief.
For six weeks, Mauer was about as hot as any of them. And, sure, his season peaked and dipped as all baseball seasons do. But at the end of the year, he hit .344/.444/.587. He led the league in all three slash categories — the first guy to do that in the American League since Brett in ‘80. And more:
– He became the third catcher to lead the American League in batting average — after Mauer & Mauer.
– He became the first catcher to lead the American League in on-base percentage since 1933.
– He became the first catcher to lead the American League in slugging percentage since … well, I believe since ever.
Mauer also won a Gold Glove — whatever that’s worth — and for whatever this is worth he also hit .371/.521/.527 as the Twins went 17-4 down the stretch to steal a playoff spot in the lousy American League Central. It seemed to me that he was probably as obvious as MVP candidate as I could ever remember. And I worried that he would not win again.
Well, he did win — he was selected MVP on 27 of the 28 ballots. The player selected on the other ballot was Miggy Cabrera which, well, was just a bizarre choice. I mean, I like Miggy, and he had another great offensive year. But Mauer hit 40 points higher, slugged 40 points higher, walked more, and was even just about equal in the counting stats (96-94 in runs; 103-96 in RBIs) despite missing the first month of the season. And, oh yeah, just remembered, Mauer also was a CATCHER and a good one while Cabrera played FIRST BASE and was adequate there at best and there’s no way that … but see, this is the trap. I’m not upset about this. Because it was just one ballot. It occurs to me that the point of the balloting is not to give us a list of the five best players in order. No, the point is to pick an MVP. And I think the voters got it right … and by a large margin. My worry was that numerous voters would go cuckoo and that Mauer would get lost in the flying Cocoa Puffs. But no. He won. He won easily. So it’s easy to move on.
So here’s a question: Just how good is Joe Mauer? I mean he’s only 26 — he will still be 26 on Opening Day in 2010 — and it’s just too early to say anything with conviction. But I’ll say something outrageous anyway: I think he has a chance to be the best catcher in baseball history.
Bold stuff, eh? My own opinion is Johnny Bench is the best Major League catcher ever with Yogi Berra second and Mike Piazza third. I say that with the belief that Josh Gibson was probably the best catcher ever, and Roy Campanella is probably Top 3 if you count his Negro Leagues days. But it’s hard enough to compare players from different eras. It’s much harder to compare players from different worlds.
I put Bench at No. 1 because I think he was the best combination of offense and defense. That’s my opinion, and an opinion I held before a certain book was written. In my mind, Berra was the closest thing to Bench, but I think Bench was just slightly better offensively and defensively (though Berra had a longer prime and was a part of so many winning teams and is probably the most quotable play baseball history — you could argue it Berra’s way too).
Piazza, meanwhile, is the greatest hitter ever to play catcher. I have little doubt about this. But that was pretty much his role, a hitter who played catcher. It’s like saying Olivier was the best actor in Clash of the Titans — true, but hardly the point. Piazza played catcher like Olivier played Zeus. In 1996, Piazza had 12 passed balls and he allowed 155 stolen bases. As a contrast, Bench from 1972-75 — FOUR YEARS — had 13 passed balls and allowed 121 stolen bases. These are not the only things that define catchers defense, of course, and Piazza does find an occasional defender of his defense. Mainly, he seemed to me a spectacular hitting first baseman playing catcher.
Anyway, I think Mauer has a chance to be in that class. He could be the class of that class. As a hitter, he has every chance to be in Piazza’s league. As a catcher, he’s probably not quite Bench or Ivan Rodriguez, but I think he’s awfully good and seemingly committed to getting better. Seems like there aren’t many limits.
And that leads to our final two questions: How much money could Joe Mauer get on the open market? And is he now the most valuable player in baseball (in the truest definition of valuable, adj., worth a great deal of money)?
How much? Well, I think he’s a $30 million a year player. That’s the A-Rod stratosphere, and Mauer seems to me to be the one guy out there who can reach those sorts of numbers even in the current climate, assuming he decides to push for as much money as he can get.
And that leads right into the second answer: Yes, I do think Mauer is the most valuable player by price in baseball. But I want to expand on that for a moment: I still think that Albert Pujols is the best player in the game. If I was starting an expansion team tomorrow, and I could have any one player, I would start it with Albert Pujols.
But that’s not really how it works. Ask yourself this: Who is going to give Albert Pujols $30 million a year when he becomes a free agent. Yes, the Cardinals might. The Cardinals should do whatever they have to do should because Pujols BELONGS in St. Louis. He fits that city perfectly. That city loves him. He is worth more to St. Louis and the Cardinals than he would be worth anywhere else*.
*Which reminds me of one more quick random baseball thought: I think the Kansas City Royals should do what they can to trade for Curtis Granderson — if Granderson is really available. I do not only say this because I like Granderson (Facebook friend!). I say this because I think Granderson would be worth more to Kansas City than he would be worth anywhere else. We all know Granderson is a good baseball player with a couple of apparent flaws, the biggest being that he cannot hit left-handed pitching. He’s also coming off a trying year, and he turns 29, and he has fallen off each of the last two seasons. Also he strikes out a lot.
So why would he be more valuable in KC than other places? Because: Those flaws don’t matter in Kansas City. Not at all. The Royals have no center fielder and none on the horizon. They are in desperate and critical need of all the good things Granderson provides. Granderson is a good defensive center fielder, an effective base stealer, a typically good base runner, a guy who crushes righties, a class act, and he’s one of the most respected players in the game. Who cares about strikeouts? Other teams might like having Curtis Granderson, but Kansas City would build around him. The Royals are not about anything right now except for their amazing ability to lose even with Zack Greinke. They could be about Curtis Granderson. That would be a huge improvement.
Sorry: Back to Pujols. St. Louis should sign him at pretty much all costs. But let’s be honest: If not St. Louis … well, who else? Look at the big-money bidders out there. The Yankees already have a very expensive first baseman they feel pretty good about. Mark Teixeira may not be quite Albert Pujols, but it’s not that big a drop-off. The Boston Red Sox spend money, but they also have a first baseman, Kevin Youkilis. Is Pujols better? Sure. But, again, Youk is a great player. Maybe one of those teams makes a hard run at Pujols. Then again, probably not.
So, suddenly the big bidder is … the Mets? Sure, the Mets would love to get Pujols. But, look around the league: The Brewers have Prince Fielder. The Phillies have Ryan Howard. The Tigers have Miggy Cabrera. The Twins have Justin Morneau. The Angels have Kendry Morales. On the horizon, there’s Joey Votto and Billy Butler. In the distance, there’s Todd Helton. Point is there are A LOT of good-hitting first basemen out there, and there are always more on the way. Pujols is better than any of them, of course. But if you can’t quite get him, well, you can spend a little less and get a terrific player.
But EVERY TEAM wants Joe Mauer. Think the Yankees need a great young catcher? The Red Sox? Sure they do: Because EVERY TEAM needs a great young catcher. And after Mauer … yeah, it’s a drop. The best hitting catcher after Mauer is probably Victor Martinez … who is about to turn 31, and he only played catcher about 55 percent of the time. Brian McCann is still young and he hits, though certainly not like Mauer. Yadier Molina is spectacular defensively and he will not strike out and he will poke a single now and again.
After that … well, it’s a long, long, long, long way down.
So if you’re the Yankees, and you have $30 million a year to spend on a player, and Pujols and Mauer are out there, who are you signing? It’s not even close, is it? What about the Red Sox? And, for that matter, what about the Mets? The Phillies? The Angels? The Cubs? Any big spending team you can think of? Pujols is the best. But Mauer is a freak of nature, and an utterly unique talent.
With that in mind, I tried to come up with the 12 most valuable players in baseball by price. It’s late, and I’m sure the list will only cause me headaches later. But I took into account age, position, versatility, dependability and, yes, marketability. The idea is this: If you threw every player in baseball into an open market, what 12 players would get the biggest contracts? I think it would go something like this:
1. Joe Mauer
2. Albert Pujols
3. Chase Utley
4. Zack Greinke
5. Hanley Ramirez
6. Tim Lincecum
7. Roy Halladay
8. Evan Longoria
9. Felix Hernandez
10. Alex Rodriguez
11. C.C. Sabathia
12. Derek Jeter
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Circle me, turkey vacation
I’m actually shocked you left David Wright off that list. New York, pretty boy, awesome at baseball…
circle me insomniac.
How long is going to last, in a post-PED (cough cough) era?
Shouldn’t that factor in? Do we know how great hitting catchers age?
The value of a give player has me thinking about the Chris Ballard essay in the back of SI this week. Ballard’s argument is that LeBron would be better off to sign for the league minimum and have his team use the salary cap money on other players. Ballard argues that by doing so, LeBron would be able to say he was really about winning rather than money, win several championships, and REALLY cash in through endorsements.
I have always wanted to see an MLB team “agree” to one of the mega-contracts but then say “Rather than $30 million, we will pay you $27 million and take $1 off each ticket.” I think that would lead to some very interesting PR moves…
what’s funny is talking about the abundance of great-hitting first basemen (and mike piazza) in light of how the mets are going about things – they have excellent offensive (good enough defensive) players at short, third and center. the power-hitting first baseman thing should be obvious – there are lots of them! – yet somehow they try to force daniel murphy on us (he of the 95 OPS+), thanks to their surplus value at other positions. someone needs to speak out about this! joe?
Once again the NY bias whiners (hi stpat!) are exposed as completed idiots.
Wieters? Too early? I think I’d take his next five years over any other catcher other than Mauer. Some might take him over Mauer, particularly those skeptical about whether Mauer and his frame can stick at catcher.
I think by this time next year Matt Wieters will be in the discussion for 2nd best hitting catcher in the AL, if not the league.
Also I’m not sure I’d have Jeter in the top 12, I think its more likely you’d be paying him for past performances then future achievements.
Yeah, Jeter looks very much out of place on that list. He had a great year, but he’ll be turning 36 next season. He has to decline at some point. He might be on that list if it was on a per-year basis, but you said the *biggest* contracts, which to me includes how many years. And I don’t think many teams would give him a big multi-year deal (besides the Yankees), even if he is Derek Jeter.
Trieu: Mauer is listed at 6-5, 22o. Wieters is listed at 6-5, 230. Why would people be more concerned about Mauer’s frame? I’d be more worried about a guy being three years younger already weighing more.
I’d take out Halladay and Jeter for Zimmerman and Tulo.
A tangent, but: I will weep if Curtis Granderson goes anywhere. Maybe less if he goes to the Royals, but weep nonetheless. I think he belongs in Detroit, and not only because he is My Tiger— I don’t see any team giving up what he is worth. He’s basically the second-best offensive player on the Tigers. After Cabrerra, there’s a big drop-off, obviously, but then Granderson is a solid No. 2. But then? It’s an even bigger drop-off. Who would be left? Maggs is old, Inge has a bum knee, Guillen is useless, and Polanco is gone. Without Granderson, the gulf between Cabrerra and the rest of the Tigers grows even more cavernous.
I doubt the Royals would be able to give the Tigers anything better than what Granderson gives the Tigers. No team could do that. Except, well, maybe the Yankees. And seeing Grandy in pinstripes would almost be akin to seeing my mother saying a Satanic Black Mass.
Whence Sizemore?
I really don’t get the vote for Cabrera.
If you decide Mauer shouldn’t win it because he missed April (the only possible reason to not vote for him, even though I think it’s a terrible reason considering how good he was after), STILL how do you vote for Cabrera? If you like power numbers and RBIs, Teixeira’s were better. If you like the high average, Jeter’s was better. Plus, I’m sorry, did we already forget what happened at the end of the season, with the Tigers desperately trying to hold onto a playoff spot? We don’t know whether his antics distracted them enough to cost them a game, but they surely didn’t help. He had a very good season, but he wasn’t better than Jeter, he wasn’t better than Teixeira, and he sure as hell wasn’t better than Mauer. And that’s just to name a couple guys.
I’d love to hear THAT justification. Anyway, congrats to Mauer who certainly deserved it.
If the Red Sox were to magically sign Pujols, Youkilis would be moving to third base before the ink even dried on the contract.
Super cool Mauer stat of the day… How many batters have hit .365 or higher from 1942-2009 (the post-.400 era)?
Answer: 16 batters in a 67 year period. Average of 1 player every 4.18 seasons.
Oh yes, that includes Mauer’s 2009. And yes, he’s the only catcher on the list.
Now, do you know how many batters hit .400 or higher from 1901-1941?
Answer: 8 batters in just 40 years. Average of 1 player every 5 seasons.
So hitting .365 these days, is harder than hitting .400 was in the old days? …and Mauer did that this year.
I meant to say in the last bit “is about as hard as hitting .400″, not harder.
Since it’s the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, can we make Joe’s official nickname Joe “Berliner” Mauer?
Where’s the love for Kurt Suzuki?
He should be third on your list of catchers, if not second.
He hit well in Oakland, anchors the leagues youngest pitching staff, and does a pretty job at controlling the running game… despite playing 135 games.
Yeah, as already intimated, I suspect that the Orioles do not have quite as much use for Mauer as other teams do. Of course, Wieters is gone after his service time runs out, but projecting catchers beyond that long is probably risky, anyway.
And that is every MN fan’s fear. Can the Twins sign him? If they do sign him, can they afford anyone else? If they do sign him, it will be for 7+ years – can he play catcher that long – and if not, is he worth $25MM plus at another position to a team that will be spending $90-120MM a year on payroll?
If they don’t sign him, they should just shut the franchise down and sue the Pohlads for stealing our taxes.
I think the Cubs under their new ownership will be big players for Pujols.
How often do you get a chance to sign your archrivals best player ever? They’ve got the cash and if they signed Pujols they’d have that division on lockdown for as long as he stayed healthy.
At worst they’d be driving the price way up for the Cardinals.
Is there any reason the Twins couldn’t offer Mauer an option to buy a stake in the team at a drastically reduced price upon retirement as part of his next deal?
I’m not asking if that is or isn’t a good idea, just could they offer it if they wanted to?
Joe if he leaves I am going to give up my season tickets. I will never go to another game. This almost happened with Kirby Puckett, and if it does happen with Mauer then they may as well take the Twins out of MN.
I think I’d have Lincecum above Greinke, since Greinke has actually had a bad year before. We’re not sure it’s even possible for Lincecum. I’d also remove Jeter from the list altogether. His value is waning.
Granderson to the Royals? Really? Why would the Tigers want to help a division rival (and, yeah, I use that term loosely) rebuild?
I think the Cubs are a much better fit. Such a deal would put Grandy out of the division – and out of the league. And it’s not like the Cubs have any sure-fire centerfielders in their immediate future either. (Recent draftee Brett Jackson shows promise but has a long way to go.) Plus, Curtis is a Chicago guy and would provide a much-needed tonic for the team’s heartburn-inducing debacle with Milton Bradley.
Enjoyed today’s blogpost. Totally agree that Mauer is a special, special player. He could’ve been a Cub, too, if the team had passed on Mark Prior. Sigh.
I get it! Having Jeter on the list was a joke. Funny!
I would donate my left nut to science in exchange for the Phillies signing Mauer. Thankfully for my left nut, though, it’s never going to happen.
Whoa whoa whoa…
Where’s Roy Campanella at?
His career was short, but he probably had a better decade stretch than either Piazza or Berra. He was a very good defender who hit like a 1B.
I think you have to move Hanley further up the list. There just isn’t another shortstop out there than can hit like he can, and his defense is getting better.
Also, I know Greinke had an amazing year, but I think Lince would get more money. He’s just got a little more proven history.
The Cardinals will have Pujols re-signed before the Cubs would even get a whiff.
Joe, why are you suggesting that the Yankees have to choose between Pujols and Mauer? Can’t they take both? One of them could DH, and they could platoon. They don’t have a DH, you know. Even if the Cards offer $30 mil a year for 10 years, the Yanks could offer $31 mil a year for 11.
And, the Royals don’t have the prospects or ML talent to obtain Granderson. The Tigers are expecting to get quite a bit in return for him. Do you know who has the prospects and ML talent? The Yankees.
@cubfan daver: The Cubs never had a chance to pass on Prior and take Mauer. The Twins held the #1 pick that year. They were derided for choosing Mauer instead of the “can’t miss” Prior, as many people thought Mauer was going to play FB at Florida State, but I think the choice has proven correct.
If I’m not mistaken, the MVP ballots are due at the end of the season, but can be submitted before. Isn’t it possible the Seattle writer submitted his ballot a few days before the end of the season, believing the Tigers would not blow their lead. Perhaps he is a believer of voting for a player from a division winner. Not saying it’s right, I’m just sayin’ …
RE: Granderson:
If the Royals were somehow able to obtain him (and they really do not have the minor league depth to do so at this point, without destroying what Moore has begun to replenish there), the weird thing to me would be instead of leading off, one could argue that he should immediately move to either #3 or #4, depending on whether you want Butler hitting in front of or behind him.
Lets throw Sandoval back at Catcher! That would put him on the list
That’s some hyperfanbole Joe.
@ Devon: Since Ted Williams hit .400 in 1942, I think like only a dozen players have hit .370 or above, which is sort of amazing. The only player to do it more than once? Tony Gwynn, who did it 3 times! If you change that number to .365 you only add, little more than a handful of players, Mauer included, and Gwynn one more time. That’s around 20 hitters or so in over 50 years, to hit over .365! Impressive.
The unknown variable with Mauer is that he is from the Twin Cities. Rarely, has a big money free agent player come up with his hometown team. I don’t think that team and city loyalty can be discounted. If he can sign long term for $15 million a year, I think he stays.
One of the reasons the Tigers have for listening to offers for Granderson is that neither they nor the teams they are listening to would expect Granderson to be the “center fielder of the future”.
Joe — would you share your MVP ballot with us? I’m particularly interested in where you ranked Ben Zobrist, who struck me as a no-brainer top 5 finisher and yet somehow finished in 8th.
Let me start the Justin Upton bandwagon. 300/366/532 as a 21 year old, and the consensus is he still has plenty of upside left in him.
Something has been bothering me about the NL Cy Young vs. AL MVP voting.
Since Chris Carpenter had the best ERA in the league by a quarter of a run, the only real reason I can see to say Linecum was the better pitcher was because Carpenter missed 5 starts. 5 starts out of 33 is 15% of his starts.
Mauer missed 24 games due to his injury. 24 out of 162 is 14% of the games.
So that seems a little inconsistent.
Brent,
The difference is that Mauer pretty much lapped the field in terms of production, whereas Carpenter wasn’t AS dominant, particularly when you look at the things a pitcher can control (through FIP and other advanced metrics, Lincecum was even or ahead of Carpenter.)
It was a really close race – as someone without a rooting interest in the Giants or Cards, I wouldn’t have been up in arms or particularly shocked if Carpenter or Wainwright had won the NL Cy – but if you’re looking strictly at the pitchers (and not the team’s) performance, I feel Lincecum was the right choice with or without the innings difference.
I like the Granderson idea. Plus he is a big Jayhawk basketball fan.
Brent #44:
There are reasons beyond that to say that Lincecum was better than Carpenter. Most apparent would be that Lincecum struck out more than A HUNDRED MORE GUYS than Carpenter did.
Also, Mark Daniel’s comments [#33] are sadly reflective of the sense of entitlement Yankee fans have. Some Yankee fans, I’m sure, have this scenario all worked out through trades of prospects and whatnot…
Your 2011 Yankees:
C Mauer
1B Teix (Pujols plays first, but come on! Teix saved at least 650 errors this year!)
2B Utley (Yanks trade Melancon and Miguel Montero for he, Howard and Rollins)
3B A-Rod (finally earned the role this post-season. If he’d flopped in the playoffs, it would be Brosius)
SS JETER!!!
LF Braun (Yanks trade Ramiro Pena and Melky for him and Fielder)
CF Hanley Ramirez (he’s fast enough to play there and no way is he supplanting the Cap’n)
RF Pujols (he played OF early in his career)
DH Fielder
Bench: Howard, Tulowitzki, Sizemore, V-Mart
SP: Sabathia, Halladay, Greinke, Lincecum, King Felix
RP: Rivera, Nathan, Broxton, Soria, Bailey, Valverde, Francisco Cordero
Of course, they’d have to find room on their AAA squad for the following:
C McCann
1B Votto/Adrian Gonzalez platoon
2B Cano
3B Youkilis
SS Rollins
LF Bay
CF Kemp
RF Justin Upton
DH Derrek Lee
Bench: Sandoval, Kinsler, Ethier
SP: Carpenter, Wainwright, Haren, Verlander, Cliff Lee
RP: Heath Bell, Ryan Franklin, Johan Santana, Josh Johnson, Jon Lester, Clayton Kershaw, Matt Cain
Of course, there’s still plenty of room at AA and A ball for anyone else who has played baseball at the major league level since 2000.
SP
Brent– two totally different sets of voters if I recall correctly. AL Awards are voted on by two writers from each AL City, NL awards by two writers from each ML City; there could be crossover in New York and Chicago, but I suspect not.
In any case, it’s a question of what one set of voters believes is important but the other does not. There’s also a case to be made that each of a pitcher’s starts counts more than an individual player’s games.
@ Brent #44:
I think the answer is that Mauer was the MVP of the league by such an overwhelming margin, that even missing 24 games he still outdistanced the next competitor. For Mauer to put up the numbers he did would be overwhelming even if he was a first baseman, but to do them as a catcher, a good catcher, and one who led his team to an comeback playoff berth, most would agree that no one else was even close.
In the case of the NL Cy Young, the gap between Lincecum and Carpenter was so much closer, that those 5 extra starts do make a difference. (Plus I know the sabermetric folks would put Lincecum ahead on the basis of more advanced metrics too, but I’m trying to keep it simple here.)
$15MM per year? You are insane. That contract will start at $20MM per year, and be for 6+ years. Or, it will be for three years, and the out years will be even more expensive/they’ll lose him then.
Why would he sign for $15MM? That’s $7-15MM per year less than he can get on the open market. That’s barely a raise from what he makes now. What is the word for fake bets again? I’ll *whatever the word is* you on this. If it is $15MM a year, I’ll run naked through the streets (same bet I made with my son about the Vikings winning the super bowl this year – I’m much more nervous about that bet than this one).
And by start at $20MM, I mean that’s where negotiations will start. I’d be shocked if the average was under $23-25MM per year. Shocked I say.
To confirm Joe’s judgment prior to 2009, AL win shares put Jeter at 33, Mauer 31, everyone else under 30 for 2006. Mauer 31 for 2008, everyone else under 30. By this measure, 1 MVP and 1 second BEFORE this year.
Win shares for 2009 must be available somewhere, though not on Hardball Times yet.
[...] value to an American League team in terms of dollars spent. (If you accept Joe Posnanki’s intriguing argument that Mauer’s actually worth $30 million per year, then maybe you can make a [...]
Since Joe mentioned Curtis Granderson above, thought I’d link to a piece I did on the Public Service Award that Granderson (and Ryan Zimmerman) won yesterday…
http://www.baseballdigest.com/2009/11/23/granderson-zimmerman-win-public-service-awards/
playing only 138 games as a catcher should not be held against Mauer at all. Jorge Posada – borderline HOF catcher – averaged 142 games in his prime years (‘00 – ‘07).
@Mr.Shoes: Thanks for clarifying re: Mauer and Prior. I had a feeling I “misspoke” as soon as I posted that.
Justin Upton needs to be very high on that list of 12
Another question: how many more years is Joe Mauer a catcher?
I suppose it’s his choice. If he has any recurring back trouble, though. . . . and he could play three years longer at a high level by not breaking down early as a catcher, would you, as his owner, want him to change positions?
If Morneau were on another team, would Joe Mauer be a first baseman already?
#48.
Thanks for taking the hyperbole to the extreme. We get the joke. At this point, comments like yours are about on par with the small set of Yankee fans that are serious about doing what you are joking about.
Joe Mauer is probably the best besaball player I will ever see. If the Twins let him get away, the local fans will take a long, long time to forgive the ownership, and that will cost them lots of money.
Mauer and Morneau have both made comments about already having “all the money they will ever need”, they like playing in Minnesota, but that they are interested in playing for a World Series contender now. The Twins could be that for a few years, if they fill some holes in the off-season (J. J. Hardy might be a good start) and re-sign Mauer. The new stadium will provide a surge in revenue that will help.
I also understand that the Twins employ several members of the Mauer family. There has been an effort to develop a real bond with the Mauers, and I suspect that matters to Joe.
If the Twins make any sort of reasonable offer, and convince Mauer that they are going for a world championship, I believe he will stay in Minnesota, and become a permanent fixture in the organization like Tony Oliva and several other former Twins stars have. Heck, he might buy the team when he’s done playing.
Joe Mauer is actually 6′6″ or possibly 6′6.5″ by now. He’s grown at least two inches since signing with the Twins. It looks like maybe he’s finally stopped growing. That’s one reason for concern about his height– he was still growing as of a season or two ago.
Joe Mauer will stay a Twin. It’s more about the Twins being competitive than how much they pay him and Joe is very happy the Twins signed J.J. Hardy and with some other moves they made this past season.
His grandparents go to every home game (well, according to Mauer, they’ve missed something like five in like five years). He grew up a Twins fan. He’s close friends with Justin Morneau. He really is the franchise at this point. I believe the team and Mauer will work it out– to do otherwise would be crazy (and would result in many season ticket holders, including this one, abandoning the team).
Personally I’d like to see Mauer go to Colorado and make a legit push for batting .400
Players hit well in Colorado because of good feelings and stuff as a result of the team, right?
At least that’s what Jon Heyman taught me.
I’d have to put Tulowitzski on the list even if I always incorrectly spell his name. “Tulo” is easier for sure.
Youkilis came up as a 3rd baseman and is only playing 1st because they need him to. The Red Sox would probably prefer him at 3rd. I don’t see Pujols leaving St Louis though.
So, I don’t know exactly what stats they used, but on Sports Center, they had a chart that showed, along with Mauer, the other MVPs who hit .365 with 25HR and 100RBI in a season. The collection was quite impressive:
Babe Ruth, Lou Gherig, Joe D, Mickey Mantle, and Mauer.
But…wait a minute…that’s it?? Didn’t Ted Williams, like, AVERAGE those stats over his career?? How is he not on the list??
Oh…I see…MVP seasons.
So congratulations, Joe Mauer!! You accomplished something that about 20 other players did!! Only you did it in a season where the writers weren’t brain-dead!! And the stats are cherry-picked!! And the list has only Yankees on it!!
THE YANKEES, JOE MAUER!! YOU MATTER NOW!! ESPN SAYS SO!!
Zack Greinke has been my favorite player since he was called up (back in 2003?). I love everything about the Greinke “experience” and his struggle and the way he pitches and the way he gives interviews and such.
Regardless, I have this sneaking suspicion that Lincecum is indeed more of a sure-thing at this point.
I suppose this could be attributable to my Royal Blue Pessimism, but I’d be hard-pressed to put money on Zack ever having another similar season. I would in fact bet against him ever having another 2.75 or under ERA.
#62 (Laurel Krahn)
Regarding Mauer’s growth pattern.
Is this observation based on publicized data, or personal?
Please post a link or an email address if you don’t mind receiving further focused inquiry on the subject.
It’s important not to forget the “list” changes every year, and changes dramatically every 4 years. For example, 3 or 4 years ago, only Pujols, Halladay, A-Rod and Jeter would have made it.
But 3 or 4 years ago we would have found in that list people like Andrew Jones, Derek Lee, Johan Santana, José Reyes, David Wright, Jimmy Rollins, Vladimir Guerrero, David Ortiz, Manny Ramírez, Travis Hafner, Pedro Martínez, Dontrelle Willis, Jake Peavy, Roy Oswalt.
Probably in 4 years at least half of the actual list should be replaced by a new, improved wave of players.
Shelby #68: I hope you are correct and Lincecum is a ‘Sure Thing”. However, given the most recent picture of him and his recent arrest w/ pot in car I wonder if he’ll become too much of “Hippie Pitcher’ to matter in a few more years….
What, you don’t think Lincecum will benefit from the sage advice of the well-grounded Barry Zito?
Suppose Pujols wins 2 more consecutive MVPs in the next two seasons, who wouldn’t pay him 30 million a year? I think it could quite easily be more than that, though the longevity of the contract is probably not as suicidal as A-Rod’s. Isn’t Youkilis a decent 3B? Don’t the Red Sox have no apparent 3rd baseman who’s not old? Lots of problems with the argument the Mauer winds up getting paid more than Pujols, though they might get roughly the same amount. And, quite obviously, Mauer is a True Yankee.
@Jimbo #73: “Suppose Pujols wins 2 more consecutive MVPs in the next two seasons, who wouldn’t pay him 30 million a year?”
Let’s see… The Nationals, the Pirates, the Royals, the Athletics, the Padres…
I thoroughly enjoyed the Berliner Mauer comment. Props to you, Zack, in case no one else appreciated it.
Joe,
You said it all when you mentioned that he is a catcher. MLB hasn’t seen a catcher like Mauer ever. I really believe that he is a good guy also. I don’t think he will be tempted my those large market teams that seem to find the money to buy championships.
He’s not going to be another Mauer, but the next great catcher after Wieters is going to be Carlos Santana of the Indians.
Regarding Joe Mauer’s height, there was an article by Joe Christensen in the StarTribune on 04/05/2007 called “Joe Mauer growing taller” or something like that.
This is from that piece: Joe Mauer is getting a little old for a growth spurt. But the Twins catcher, who was 6-4 last season, has pushed past 6-5 and is approaching 6-6. The team lists him at 6-5 in the media guide, but Mauer acknowledged that he is actually 6-6 “wearing shoes.” I’ve been growing ever since last year,” he said Wednesday. “I don’t want to get too big, or I might have to move [positions].”
The real lesson, both for Greinke’s Cy and Mauer’s MVP, is that Joe is now the leader of ‘mainstream’ sports journalism, which is to say, sportswriters and observers who aren’t ex-jocks.
I’m with you on Granderson, Joey!
@74
The Nats have money (and a large market) they’re just terrible, I’m pretty sure the owner is willing to spend 80-90 on payroll and 100 on exceptional years.
Herve Montalban [#60],
Yes, my post was overkill, but there are some (and I did say SOME) Yankee fans who seem to feel entitled to any player with a claim to greatness. Given the way the free agent market shook down last year, you can certainly see why they feel that way.
Steinbrenner’s largesse over the past several years certainly lends itself to certain members of the team’s fan base thinking they’re going to get whatever they want.
I’m sure it’s just a vocal and obnoxious minority, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a comments section on a mainstream media baseball site that doesn’t contain at least a couple of “he’s going to look good in pinstripes” comments.
In the interest of full disclosure, I should point out that I’m a Blue Jays fan, so I’m naturally embittered by the mountainous odds my team has to overcome to come close to yours, and that bitterness only intensifies every time I hear a Yankee fan just assume they’re going to get a great player the minute he becomes a free agent (partly because of the aforementioned sense of entitlement and partly because I know there’s a pretty decent chance that prediction will come true.)
I just have to say….this was a spectacularly great piece. Football gets the dinghy chicks and boozehounds that slobber, baseball gets the great writers. Well done, this is one of the best baseball pieces I’ve read in the last 15 years.
[...] Joe Posnanski* wonders whether Joe Mauer is the most valuable player in the game right now. While Pujols is the [...]
I love Joe Mauer – don’t get me wrong… but, how about this catcher…
Age – slash stats
22 – .3o0/.372/.401
23 – .294/.391/.434
24 – .327/.411/.473
25 – .332/.428/.511
26 – .320/.412/.470
Yeah, that superstar is Jason Kendall. I know Mauer’s better, but there was a time when we all thought Jason Kendall was a bit of a freak as well. Catchers just don’t age well…
I’m not a Twins fan, but I will be personally saddened if he ends up signing somewhere. Sure, he could probably get $20-$30 million a year elsewhere. But what bothers me is the implication that he HAS to take the largest amount of money offered. The flip side of that being that the Twins CAN’T afford him, because the free agent market will demand that he take more money than they can offer.
The link below is to a piece I wrote for a small blog which, I hope, articulates this feeling a little better.
http://allswingsconsidered.wordpress.com/2009/11/25/please-joe-mauer-stay-a-twin/