Comments on: Seven Levels of the Torii Walk

By: Mythbusters: ALDS Edition | Bronx Baseball Daily

Mythbusters: ALDS Edition | Bronx Baseball Daily — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 05:05:28 +0000

[...] That was quick, huh? Part of me wanted this series to go on as long as possible, but seeing Papelbon blow a save in Fenway when he was 1 strike away is about as good as it gets. Should be a fun winter of second-guessing Francona as well. How could you possibly intentionally walk Hunter with 2 outs to face Guerrero? I would break this one down further, but instead I’ll just direct you to Joe Posnanski, who, not surprisingly, captures my confusion. [...]

By: Tom

Tom — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 00:08:24 +0000

I wonder if Joe would have had Zack Greinke intentionally walk Joe Mauer with two outs in the sixth inning of the Royals’ Saturday game with Minnesota on the final weekend.

By: baseball fan

baseball fan — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 22:49:02 +0000

Extend the argument to level 8

Everyone has pride. For people who are unbelievably talented, they often have excess pride about their ability because they know they have it and they can switch it on when needed. By challenging an amazing hitter like Vlad, you gave him extra motivation to really show you off.

By: Phil Gaskill

Phil Gaskill — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 15:20:50 +0000

Oops, the *go-ahead* run was already on second; it wasn’t yet the *winning* run.

And I just spotted a bigger mistake that Francona made: “Gathright in as designated hitter.” Jesus.

By: Phil Gaskill

Phil Gaskill — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 15:18:30 +0000

@79:

The winning run was *already* on second. The IBB only put Hunter on first, which was empty at that point: it didn’t change who was (or wasn’t) on second or third. Viz.:

“Angels ninth. Youkilis in as third baseman. Gathright in as designated hitter. Kotchman in as first baseman. Izturis fouled out to catcher Martinez. Matthews Jr. pinch-hitting for Napoli. Matthews Jr. flied out to center fielder Ellsbury. Aybar singled to center. On defensive indifference, Aybar to second. Figgins walked on a full count. Abreu doubled to left, Aybar scored, Figgins to third. Hunter was intentionally walked. Guerrero singled to center, Figgins scored, Abreu scored, Hunter to second. Okajima pitching. Morales flied out to left fielder Bay.”

By: Paul H.

Paul H. — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 14:21:46 +0000

Haven’t had chance to read all the comments yet, but personally, I thought they had a better chance of getting Vlad out than Hunter. I don’t think they were really relying upon sample size, they were relying upon scouting that says Vlad can’t hit good fastballs anymore. I’m sure in the same situation, the Angels would have walked Youkilis to get to Papi (who also can no longer get around on a good fastball).

By the way, I agree with Paul White that you could tell right away (as in the 8th inning) that Papelbon didn’t have it. Which is why I thought they should have brought in Okajima to face Abreu.

By: BL

BL — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 11:42:47 +0000

Article is spot on about walking Hunter. I played baseball my whole life and understand its nuances very well. I was watching the game intensely by myself, and I was complete shock by the managerial decision. NEVER force the Go Ahead Run to second base (especially in the 9th inning) with an intentional walk. A mere single give your opponent the lead. Duh? A single to Hunter would not have been nearly disatrous. That’s the real point of why the decision was so dumb. Even if Vlad was a .250 hitter that is still only a differential of like 6 hits out of 100 at-bats compared to Hunter, but were talking about a guy who has had a hall of fame career based on hitting.

I like Francona, and he normally makes wise moves, but this event was so curious. He is probably the only manager in all of baseball who one of done that.

As far an IBB goes, I think its fine in the and don’t have a problem with them when done correctly, but they must be used very judiciously. That situation is one of the exact worst times to do so EVER.

Cool, author is a Dodgers fan too. Go Blue!

By: Buchholz Surfer

Buchholz Surfer — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 16:47:55 +0000

#66 Josh in DC is exactly right in my book. My take is that Francona figured that Guerrero looks terrible right now, he’s extremely unlikely to walk in that situation, and is more likely to chase a bad pitch.

I still don’t like the intentional walk there, but from what I know about Francona, that seems more likely to be the real reasoning, or at least a big unspoken part of it.

Another decision I didn’t like in that situation was the Sox outfield playing so deep. A single basically beats you, so why not play shallower to try to take that away? They seemed to be way back in “no-doubles” land.

Yes, a double there definitely beats you, but a single is pretty much just as bad, the way the Sox were going. Why not play your standard depth, where you are most likely to get to most balls?

At any rate, the Angels were the better team and I think they were still going to win the series even if they lost that game.

I just hope the Angels play just as well against the Yankees as they did against Boston, but I get the feeling that this time they won’t.

By: tadthebad

tadthebad — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 16:44:05 +0000

So, we can rely on Papelbon’s walk rate from this year, but we must rely on avg (?)/obp/slug from Hunter’s and Guerrerro’s careers? Is consistent rationale too much to hope for?

By: Phil Gaskill

Phil Gaskill — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 14:44:05 +0000

@75:

> I hear the “small sample size” argument from statheads so often that it drives me nuts. NONE of them ever tell me what an adequate sample size is.

Sure they do. Adequate sample size for a series between two teams, to adequately “prove” which team is better? Best-of-23. How’s that for an example?

Sorry I can’t give you chapter & verse, but I’ve read it in more than one place that I tend to trust statistically. Bill James may have been one.