Seven Levels of the Torii Walk
Posted: October 11th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 85 Comments »
If you have checked in here now and again, you don’t need me to tell you how much I hated the Red Sox intentionally walking Torii Hunter in the ninth inning Sunday. I despise about 87% of all intentional walks. But I really despised this one. I despised it on about seven different levels.
In fact — I despised it on EXACTLY seven different levels. I’ll list them here.
First, the situation: Boston led the Angels by a run. Ninth inning. Two outs. Men on second and third. Torii Hunter stepped to the plate. Vladimir Guerrero waited on deck. The Red Sox called for the intentional walk.
Level 1: I cannot stand the whole concept of the intentional walk.
– This is not to say there is never a time or place for the intentional walk. I know that sometimes the situation demands the walk. Sometimes the player on deck is so much worse than the hitter at the plate that you are just hurting yourself if you don’t make the move. Sometimes, you need to set up the double play. I’m passionately against the intentional walk, but I do understand there are times and places for it.
That said, I do think that you are sending a clear message to your pitcher and your team when you call for the walk. The message is simply this: “I don’t believe we can get this guy out. I think we’ll have a better chance with the next guy.” It’s a fear-based move, like the prevent defense, like milking the clock in basketball. And I think that’s especially true in this case … Terry Francona basically told everyone: “I don’t trust my dominant closer Jon Papelbon to get Torii Hunter out. We all kind of just hope that Vladimir Guerrero is not as good as he used to be.”
I don’t know if that negative stuff matters on a real level — probably not. But it bugs the heck out of me.
Level 2: I cannot stand walking the bases loaded with two outs.
– After the game, Francona admitted that he did have some concerns about walking the bases loaded, but he was willing to take the chance because “Pap throws strikes.” You should have concerns. A walk, a hit-batter and the tying run scores.
First off, there was no strategic advantage to having the bases loaded. There were two outs. So this wasn’t to get the force at home or to set up a double play. The move was made for only one reason: To face a different hitter.
Second: I would question the bit about Pap throwing strikes. Papelbon averaged more than three walks per nine inning this year — the highest total of his career as a closer and 13th in the league among closers with 20 or more saves. That’s not to say that control is a big problem, but he’s not exactly Greg Maddux. And I’m not entirely sure how Francona could be that sure he would throw strikes. Pap walked Chone Figgins two batters earlier.
Third: Even if Papelbon throws strikes, it’s a different thing pitching with the bases loaded than with an empty base. A pitcher has fewer options. Bases loaded, you are less likely to waste pitches. You may be more likely to challenge a hitter with a first pitch fastball. Which leads us right to Level 3 …
Level 3: The man on deck is one of the greatest first-ball-fastball hitters in the history of baseball.
– Look, I know that this has been a tough year for Vladimir Guerrero. And I know this has been a very good year for Torii Hunter — and he’s a very good player.
But … there’s no way you pitch to Vlad over Torii, right? I mean, there’s NO WAY right? Vlad Guerrero has a career 145 OPS+ — Torii Hunter has a career 106 OPS+. Torii Hunter has been a very good player — especially when you incorporate his brilliant center field defense. Vlad Guerrero is going to the Hall of Fame five years after he retires because of his remarkable hitting ability. This is bizarro world — you are supposed to intentionally walk Guerrero (he led the AL in intentional walks every year from 2005 to 2008) not intentionally walk to GET TO HIM.
Also Vlad Guerrero hits .366 and slugs .676 on first pitches in his career. Maybe he has had a rough year, but the man knows what to do with a first pitch fastball. Which, of course, is exactly what he got (exactly what he HAD to get with the bases loaded). This boggles the mind. What could possibly cause a manager to decide to walk Torii Hunter to pitch to Vlad Guerrero? You betcha … Level 4:
Level 4: It drives me nuts when managers use small sample sizes to make enormously important moves.
Here was Francona’s explanation for making the move: Torii Hunter was three for seven against Papelbon with a homer. Guerrero was one for 11.
Now, as tempting as it is to believe that certain hitters have advantages over certain pitchers — and vice versa — there is precious little data to actually back this up. Yes, there’s plenty of PAST data. We can look at previous numbers. We can know that Hunter has had more success against Papelbon than Guerrero, relatively speaking. But there are quite a few studies out there that show, pretty persuasively, that this tells us nothing about how those two will do against Papelbon in the future. Nothing.
The reason? Sample size. Sample size. Sample size. Sample size. I will readily admit, I need to remind myself about this all the time — like most baseball fans I have the nagging habit to try and find trends and truths in a few games, a few at-bats, a few things I happened to see. It’s human nature.
But even I know that 3-for-7 means LESS THAN NOTHING. One for 11 means LESS THAN NOTHING. Guerrero has been a much better hitter than Torii Hunter over about 8,000 plate appearances. That means something. He has been a much better hitter than almost every right-handed hitter for decades and decades. You know I’m not crazy about batting average as a single measurement but I think this is telling:
Best averages for right-handed hitters since World War II (5,000 plate appearances):
1. Albert Pujols, .334
2. Vladimir Guerrero, .321
3. Kirby Puckett, .318
4. Derek Jeter, .318
5. Roberto Clemente, .317
You’re telling me that seven and 11 at-bats in any way cancels that? It’s absurd. Look, it’s a long season, and if managers want to play around with pitcher-hitter matchups during the season, sure, go ahead. But to count on those meaningless stats in this situation, I think, is pure lunacy.
Level 5: If you are already looking at splits, how about looking at their performances against righties?
In their careers:
Torii Hunter hits .269/.323/.462 against right-handed pitchers.
Vlad Guerrero hits .320/.381/.561 against right-handed pitchers.
In 2009 — a bad year for Vlad Guerrero and and excellent one for Hunter …
Torii Hunter hits .287/.354/.484 against righties.
Vlad Guerrero hits .311/.354/.477 against righties.
And one more split, just for fun … in their careers:
Torii Hunter hits .243/.272/.336 against power pitchers (pitchers with Ks more than 28% of the time).
Vlad Guerrero hits .286/.366/.511 against power pitchers.
Inexplicable. That’s all. It’s inexplicable.
Level 6: This one doesn’t even feel right on a gut level.
One thing that I have noticed about intentional walks is that sometimes, even if I dislike the spirit of it, I have to admit that the walk kind of FEELS right. Like in Game 1 of the Cardinals-Dodgers series, Joe Torre intentionally walked Albert Pujols to face Matt Holliday with the bases loaded in the very first inning. FIRST INNING! I could not stand that move as a fan of baseball. That seemed so defeatist. And it seemed like a backfire move for sure.
But I also appreciate that if I’m an intense Dodgers fan, I feel a whole lot better about facing Matt Holliday than I do Albert Pujols. On a gut level, I get the move, even if I don’t respect it.
But this intentional walk felt wrong on ALL levels. If I’m a Red Sox fan I have much more fear with Guerrero at the plate. It’s not even close.
Level 7: “We thought it put us in a better position to win.” – Terry Francona
I really like Terry Francona. I think he’s an excellent manager. And I respect him for making the move he believed in at that moment. I think some managers do what they do in order to avoid being second-guessed. Francona did what he thought would win the game.
But … I didn’t get it when he did it. And I don’t get it now. You need one out — you can pitch to Torii Hunter with first base open or Vlad Guerrero with no place to put him. I appreciate that there is no right and wrong when looking back at a baseball move. Maybe Torii Hunter would have smashed a three-run homer. But it sure seems to me that Terry Francona put his team in a better position to lose. And, as it turned out, Guerrero crushed that first pitch for a two-run line-drive single. And the Red Sox did lose.
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Circle me George Brett
I am a Red Sox fan, and I felt a lot more fear with Guerrero at the plate. It wasn’t even close. I don’t know about Francona sometimes, great manager or idiot savant. I go back and forth.
Could not agree with you more. I was following Gameday on my IPhone at work and when I saw “intentional ball”, I couldn’t believe it. I, like you, hate the intentional walk but understand that sometimes it works and sometimes it’s the right move, but this just wasn’t it. In any way.
I don’t mind it too much.
As for Pap throwing strikes… he definitely does. Combine his relatively low BB/9 with the fact that it’s very difficult to walk Vlad, and I think that’s fine.
As for true talent of Torii vs Vlad… Vlad is not good anymore. He’s not good at hitting fastballs (he has a negative run value this year when seeing them) anymore. He’s not good at hitting HRs. He’s not good at drawing walks. 2009 saw him have his career lowest walk rate, and his second or third highest K rate. He shattered his bat today by hitting the ball on the bat about 3 inches from his top hand.
Hunter on the other hand, somehow, has had some good seasons recently. 2007 and 2009 saw two of his top 3 SLG season totals. I don’t know why, but it seems like he has truly improved over the last few years. He also had his career high in walk rate this year – more than double Vlad’s walk rate.
At a basic level, you’re comparing Torii’s BA to Vlad’s OBP. That’s .299 to .334 this year. So it would make more sense to take your chances with Torii – about 3% of the time, there would be a difference here. But given the fact that Vlad’s bat speed is slowing, and given the fact that he was actually quite bad at hitting fastballs this year, I don’t think this is a bad move at all.
It was a move of such cosmic stupidity that a loss was the only possible outcome in an ordered universe.
This one episode has provided me with more proof of the existence of a Supreme Being than every Bible ever written.
Could not agree more. In essence they set it on a tee for Vlad. Torii was also carrying the pressure of being the new team leader, I was thinking he would have a heavy bat in that situation. And as you say, Pap could tease him with a base open. On the other hand. I haven’t seen that serious a glint in Vlad’s eyes for years. The man was making contact in that situation no matter what.
Aybar also impressed me. The whole Angel team. It just felt like their year and if I were the Yankees I wouldn’t exactly be jumping for joy. Sweeping the Sox sets their pitching up perfectly.
A sample size of 1 for 11 doesn’t tell one much but if the 1 for 11 was in the past 2-3 recent games that they faced one another then I can see more reason to look at the stat.
Joe, you really don’t like the IBB; That is clear. I have less of a problem with it and see some merit in Francona using it against Hunter. Still, Papelbon might have wished to waste 2 or 3 pitches off of the plate to see if Hunter would chase a bad one or two. At any rate, I was thrilled to see Papelbon humbled by the Angels in the 9th. And, the silence coming from the Fenway faithful was golden. With the Pats losing today to the Broncos (in those hideous throwback costumes) it must be a wonderful evening in Beantown!
Maybe I underestimate the ability of a pitcher to avoid a mistake or underestimate the ability of a batter to hit a pitch off the plate or overestimate the ability of a catcher to catch most everything, but why not tell “Pap” to throw nothing that Hunter could hit and see if Hunter swings at bad pitches and makes an out. If he takes four balls, fine, but make him identify four pitches as balls rather than intentionally walk him?
Something else to think about: the Red Sox defense was bad this year. Loading the bases puts even more pressure on them, especially with a guy who tends to hit fastballs hard and doesn’t strike out that much for power hitter (13% for career vs. 19% for Hunter and similar rates this year).
I don’t disagree with your findings. I did look up Vlad though, just to kind of get a full grasp of his career. I know this isn’t a batting average site, but I’m astonished by the stat that the dude hit over .300 for 12 straight years until this year.
This post is much ado about nothing …
One intentional walk didn’t lose three games in the series. It was quite clear before the series even started that the Angels were a far superior team – despite all those “genuises” in the Sox’ front office, the game is played on the field – by players (gasp!).
You don’t need sabremetrics or righteous indignation for the IBB to see that Boston had little chance in this series. I certainly can’t doubt the accuracy of Francona’s decision, either. Career-long sample size be damned … if you had simply watched Vlad swing the bat recently, you’d want to pitch to him, too.
How often has a hitter been walked to get to Vladimir Guerrero? That’s the stat I’d really like to know.
My thought when it happened was, Wow, remember when Vladimir Guerrero was one of the most respected hitters in baseball? I’m glad he came through that time.
Stay classy, NMarkW. If you could give us Sox fans a shout when you’re going to wrap up your “ohhhhhh baby, i loooooved watching Papelbon get humbled and you Sox fans all holding each other while you only wept” anti-fan masturbatyping festival, that’d be great.
In terms of the walk, it’s really six one way half dozen the other. Paps is one of the best in the business, and odds are he gets either of them. Heck, the odds of him giving up 3 runs are virtually nil. But that’s why they play the game (sad shoulder shrug).
And now the Angels have a shot at winning a 2nd World Series this decade, which would match the Red Sox and instantly cause debate on who the best team of this decade was… where, if only the BoSox won 2, then they’d have something to brag about in the offseason. heh.. and for those who also count 2000 as part of this decade, the Yankees also now have a shot at a 2nd title and Boston can’t stand in their way.
(Note: realistically if the Phillies win back to back championships… do they get in this conversation? I don’t think so, but they could be the team of the 2nd half of the decade even though that sounds silly)
oops, meant openly, not only. it’s been a long weekend of watching my teams get beat down.
off topic, but joe–if you caught any of the Browns-Bills game, was that not the ugliest game you’ve seen in years? It was unwatchable even if that was a hometown team playing…well, here’s hoping the Bills don’t make your list of worst coaching hires ever when they send Jauron packing….they ARE sending him packing, right?
the small sample size is deceptive, Joe, I agree–but what’s tricky is not the 5-10 vs 0-7 or whatever.
what’s tricky is that based on my experience as a fan, watching ball games this season, I think Tori is a monster; I think Vlad is nearly cooked. If you believe that Tori is really at this moment 20 points of adjusted OPS better than Vlad–or even if you just believe that he’s nothing like 40 points (career total) worse–it’s not such an easy decision. of course, single season is a smaller sample than career, but it’s not a meaningless one.
still a bad decision, I think, but more understandable than you make it.
Sometimes OPS doesn’t matter, guys. The thing is if Boston allowed even a hit, they were in huge trouble. A hit of any kind gives the Angels the lead. It really doesn’t matter if Hunter is more likely to hit a home run than Vlad when a single does the job just as well. In most situations, obviously, OPS is extremely important, but it didn’t matter that much here.
Let me give you this extreme example. You’ve got guys on second and third, 2 outs, 9th inning, down by 1 with decent speed on the bases (enough to score 2 runs on any hit save a ball absolutely scorched directly at a fielder with a great arm). At the plate is a guy who hits .240, but he’s got an OBP of .380 and a slugging of .550. On deck is a guy who hits .330, but he doesn’t walk and he’s got no power. It’s a very empty .330. Who do you pitch to?
Because to me, I’m pitching to the first guy. Absolutely. No question. He’s less likely to make an out, but a walk doesn’t actually hurt me at all except to force me to face the second guy anyway. The only thing he can do that kills me is a hit OF ANY KIND. He’s more likely to hit a big home run than the second guy, or a double, but a HIT is what kills me, and he’s hitting .240 while the second guy is hitting .330.
It’s extreme, yes, but I think in our haste to discredit batting average in favor of OPS (and believe me, I find BA overrated and put far more stock into OBP and slugging), we ignore that there are times where it actually does matter a lot more. What happened today wasn’t quite as bad as that extreme example, since Hunter does actually hit for average, but by loading the bases, you’re making it Hunter’s average (because again, a walk just means you face Vlad anyway) VS Vlad’s OBP. And that’s a big enough difference to wonder why they’d do that.
#13: I wouldn’t say Papelbon was not one of the best in the business this season. He’s still been very good, don’t get me wrong, but his WHIP, while still decent, is way up from his career average and not really in line with the best of the best. That’s not to say he wasn’t good or isn’t effective, but he was in trouble a lot more this year than he has been before, so it didn’t shock me at all that it finally caught up to him. I will give you that he was much better after the All Star break though.
Incidently, not that it mattered in the end, but here’s another reason I hated the walk: The Angels weren’t the home team. It’s not like a walkoff situation where the runner on first literally doesn’t matter because 2 runs win the game automatically. With Fuentes being very shaky at times, I wouldn’t want to put more runners on for free and risk even more runs scoring.
Apparently I can’t type either. I wouldn’t say Papelbon has been one of the best in the business this season, is what I meant to say.
BillP @ 11: That’s just silly fantalk. First of all, nobody said the intentional walk lost 3 games.
Secondly, to say Boston had very little chance or that the Angels were far superior is ridiculous. Boston scored 136 more runs that they allowed. The Angels scored 122 more runs than they allowed. Based on that alone, the notion of the Angels as “far superior” is silly. Toss in the fact that Boston achieved its slightly better run differential in a tougher division, and it’s reasonable to conclude that Boston was the better team going into the series.
And this is coming from someone who was sort of happy to see Papelbon get beat down. That guy is really a horse’s ass. It sunk in for me earlier this year after he gave up the go-ahead HR to Omir Santos of the Mets. In the bottom of the 9th, the Mets made a couple of tremendous defensive plays to preserve the lead. One was a diving David Wright stop. The play at first was close, but not so close that there was anything to argue about. And Papelbon jumped up out of the dugout like he was going to charge out there and argue the call. Literally, he was all the way out of the dugout looking incensed. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen another player react in quite that way. He really came across as a tool and I’ve been rooting hard against him since (except against the Yankees…nothing trumps my hatred for the Yankees).
17:That was exactly my thought. It’s not that Hunter isn’t having a good season or that Vlad is having a (for him) bad year, it’s that you’re letting Hunter on for free IN ORDER to bring up one of the best pure RH hitters in decades. Vlad will swing at anything and will HIT anything. Vlad’s career BIP is 74% and at 77% this year, Hunter’s is 70% career and 68% in 09. Put it this way, would anybody intentionally walk someone to get to Manny in that situation? More than likely not, but Manny’s BIP is 61% for his career. (Which really surprised me actually)
An intentional walk is stupid in 99,9% of the cases that don’t involve the pitcher hitting next. Period. And, I didn’t see anybody mention a HPB. The idea that any player can do something “at will” is really dangerous – I know Guerrero free swinger blah blah, but who says Papelbon doesn’t walk him unintentionally? Hit him?
And as someone mentions, so what if the pitcher gets down 3-0? You walk him anyway. Last thing you want to do is put yourself in a position where you HAVE to throw a fastball strike – which is just what Francona created. And to Guerrero, of all people.
That’s why the IBB is stupid. It is an “at will” move by the defense – the only one there is. A guarantee. Why in god’s name giving someone a free base on purpose makes sense to anyone escapes me.
While I agree that the intentional walk is stupid most of the time, and is extremely overused, there are times when it is a good strategy.
However, there is absolutely no time when loading the bases in the ninth inning with two outs and a one run lead is even close to viable.
In a situation with runners on second and third with two outs and a one run lead, I can only think of two scenarios where the IBB would be viable, and neither would take place in the ninth.
1) In the late middle innings, in the NL where the pitcher is next, he is cruising, and the bullpen is bad. (Forcing the other manager to make decision to either let the pitcher hit or use a PH)
2)In a long extra inning game, where the benches are emptied, the hitter you are walking is pretty good, and the next hitter is either a pitcher or somebody REALLY bad. (Tony Pena Jr. bad) There would have to be no viable pinch hitter left.
Francona’s move was asinine, and I would say that even if Vlad had popped out or struck out.
Tito has now had his Grady moment. Luckily for him (and us) he won some first, so we’ll cut him some slack.
Wonder how many Red Sox saberheads will send Terry this for Christmas.
http://www.cafepress.com/Soxaholix/6879240
Re: level 4
What’s weird about the small sample size mistake is that in other contexts people do understand it. I mean, if it was the third game of the season, and Hunter was 3 for 7 and Vlad was 1 for 11 no one would then predict that Torii was headed for a monster year while Vlad was done.
I just can’t get all that worked up about the move. Did it make sense? No, probably not. But I also don’t think anything Francona did there short of yanking Papelbon from the game was going to help the situation. I’ve watched a solid majority of all the games Papelbon has pitched in his career, and let’s just say there are times when you know he doesn’t have it. Yesterday was one of those times, literally from the first pitch he threw. He become nothing but a fastball pitcher the last 2-3 years (which is maddening since he used to have a damned good splitter), and has consequently become really predictable. His fastball isn’t a Rivera cutter-style pitch that he can throw wherever he wants, it’s a just a good, straight fastball. Most days he can hump that thing up there well enough to get it past the hitters, but that style doesn’t play as well in the playoffs, and it certainly doesn’t play well against a team like the Angels, who absolutely love fastballs.
So I hang this game on Papelbon, not Francona. (Personality probably has a lot to do with that, too, since Tito seems like one of the nicest guys in baseball while Papelbon has been a jackass since at least ‘07.) As far as the series goes, I just tip my cap to the Angels for out-pitching the Sox in games 1 & 2 and then taking advantage of Papelbon’s meltdown yesterday.
I think that Francona was listening to the announcers who told us about a zillion times in this series how many at bats with runners in scoring position in the post season it had been since Vlad had gotten a hit.
In other words, he was counting on Vlad’s famous UnClutchness. Then it didn’t pan out (seems to me it was a weekend for UnClutch Guys to disprove their criticts, wasn’t it?)
I’m a Sox fan and watch an awful lot of Sox games, and all season I’ve been surprised that they won as often as they did. I was pleasantly surprised they made the playoffs, and all series I knew they were going to find a way to lose. It’s like I was transported back to the bad old days before 2004. That being said, I can’t blame Francona. The offense was terrible. Even though he shouldn’t have called for the intentional walk.
Agree with the post. Would slightly disagree with one thing you said in “Level 2″. You said there was no strategic advantage with loading the bases with 2 outs (not setting up a double play). I would say there can be a potential advantage if… say… the 3rd baseman makes a diving stop of a ground ball up the line, it’s nice to have the force at 3rd. Or, same goes for a tough ground ball up the middle that the SS or 2B might be able to flip to 2nd for an out, but would have no chance at throwing the guy out at 1st. These situations are far more rare than walking in the tying run though… so I agree with the overall post.
An IBB at that point in the game allows a force at any base, not just home. Thus a shortstop fielding a grounder deep in the hole at short, for example, might have only one play – a force at 3rd. If so, the game is over. The same could be said of a grounder up the middle and a force at 2nd, or a broken bat bleeder to the 3B and a force at home. The down side of the IBB is that a walk or HBP brings in the tying run. A hit in either case puts the Angels ahead, and the way the Red Sox were hitting that meant a loss. Thus, with the bases loaded the pitcher is in control of the situation – i.e. he has to avoid a walk or HBP. If you leave first base open, you are allowing for the chance that the pitcher hits or walks a batter, but you are not allowing for the emergency force play at 2nd, 3rd or home. I don’t think this decision is simply a boneheaded move based on tradition, there is a logic behind it. I think this is where the Red Sox were coming from. The key, again, is that if the Red Sox fell behind by any amount, 1 run, 2 runs, whatever, they were going to lose.
There is a reason #8 for not making the move. Closers need to feel indominable. One of the few saves Rivera blew this season was when his manager ordered him to intentionally walk a batter. Rivera was upset about it because he felt he could get the guy out. Francona sent Papelbon the same message and the results were predictable.
Thanks for the great article – as an Angels fan I was flabbergasted they wanted to pitch to a great fastball hitter over a guy who hits righties for mistakes. Vlad has declined as a power bat, but hitting .296 without taking wwalks, getting infield hits or being completely health says he is not completely done as a singles hitter.
What I love about Joe is that even if the IBB had worked exactly as planned, he wouldn’t have hated it any less.
From the devil’s side…
Who would you rather want to deal with in a possible infield hit situation, Torii Hunter (who can still run) or Vlad (who can be run down by a zombie)? Torii slaps the ball in the hole, you’re not throwing him out and the tying run scores. Vlad hits it in the same spot, the infielder could get a Domino’s pizza delivered and then throw out Vlad.
Exhibit A: Mark Loretta — before he hit the single against the Cardinals’ closer to win the game on Thursday — was 0-15 against Franklin.
I wonder why more managers don’t use the mid-at-bat intentional walk more. Pitch to Hunter, if he gets ahead 2-0 or 3-1, walk him then. There’s no reason to want a guy on first, but you can pitch to Hunter confidently knowing that you’ve got that safety net of just putting him on if you’re in trouble. Like everyone else, Hunter’s batting average goes way up when he’s ahead in the count (.314 after 2-0, .265 after 1-1, .179 after 0-2)
You can argue that walking Torii is like the manager saying, “You can’t get him out.” On the other hand, you can say walking Torii is like saying, “I trust you to not walk or hit the next batter.” How do we know what state of mind such a piece of strategy induces?
[...] Of course, that career has also always contained a lot of playoff failures — he has hit .259/.357/.306 with just one homer and nine RBIs over 23 postseason contests — and his regular season statistical dropoff over the past two seasons has been so severe that Terry Francona believed Boston's best play would be to intentionally walk Torii Hunter(notes) and get to Guerrero for the third out. (An inherently dumb move, says Joe Posnanski.) [...]
Does this happen anymore?….I believe that it used to happen more frequently….
The manager walks to the mound not fully knowing how his pitcher (and possibly the catcher) feel about facing one batter versus another. They discuss their options and the pitcher may have the final say in who he would rather pitch to.
I believe when a veteran like Papelbon is told what to do without having his say in the final decision, your chances in getting one of the two possible batters out is diminished.
Yes, if this was a younger hurler I can see the manager more dictating the strategy, but otherwise let the vet players help decide. No?
Both mainstream and advanced stats say Papelbon was still very good this year…but not his normal “lights-out” standard.
Paul @ 27– EXACTLY. After a couple years batters stopped chasing the splitter, so he just completely gave up on it. That used to be a nuclear-level pitch…now he’s just a guy throwing fastballs (albeit, as they say, “heavy” ones since he supposedly gets a lot of late movement).
I wonder how Bard’s future plays out. He arguably (well, I don’t even know if it’s much of an argument) has better stuff than Paps, so it will be interesting to see what’s in store…
[...] Of course, that career has also always contained a lot of playoff failures — he has hit .259/.357/.306 with just one homer and nine RBIs over 23 postseason contests — and his regular season statistical dropoff over the past two seasons has been so severe that Terry Francona believed Boston’s best play would be to intentionally walk Torii Hunter(notes) and get to Guerrero for the third out. (An inherently dumb move, says Joe Posnanski.) [...]
[...] That was quick, huh? Part of me wanted this series to go on as long as possible, but seeing Papelbon blow a save in Fenway when he was 1 strike away is about as good as it gets. Should be a fun winter of second-guessing Francona as well. How could you possibly intentionally walk Hunter with 2 outs to face Guerrero? I would break this one down further, but instead I’ll just direct you to Joe Posnanski, who, not surprisingly, captures my confusion. [...]
The IBB was more rooted in an instinctual reaction than some numbers based educated strategem. The arguments Joe gives and the discussion here is grounded in numbers, research, and is more a final KO against any argument for the move than definitive proof it was a bad one. If Vlad had not gotten a RBI, would we be having this discussion? Although I’m pretty sure Joe would’ve hated the move nonetheless as Richard @ 34 mentioned earlier.
I’m sure Francona still had Torii’s 3-run blast and that horrible AB Vlad had with the bases loaded in Game 1 on his mind.
Bill C. @ 20: I agree with you that the Angels are not a far superior team, and if the teams could have a second 5 game series, it’d still be a toss up. However, to say Boston is better in a better division is absurd. The AL East is only a harder division because of the Yankees. The rest of the division is comparable, except the East has an additional punching bag in the Orioles. Considering that the AL West’s splits against the East are actually above .500 (collectively), with Boston’s at 13-21, you could argue that, with some simplistic extrapolation, Boston would’ve had a worse record if they were, let’s say, the Las Vegas Red Sox.
“it’s that you’re letting Hunter on for free”
For me, this is the whole point. Hunter may have had the better year and Guerrero the better career, but I don’t see a reason to put Hunter on base without making him earn it. With first base open, Papelbon had options for working the strike zone and seeing if he could get Hunter to swing at bad pitches. With the bases loaded he had to throw strikes, and Guerrero is notorious for his ability to hit balls thrown just about anywhere.
I just don’t see why you wouldn’t pitch to Hunter.
There’s no official “team of the decade award”, but it does seem to be something for people to debate. If the Angels win the world series – that’s a big if – they will have:
2 WS
6 playoff appearances
5 Division titles
Red Sox will have 2 WS, 6 playoff appearances, but only 1.5 division titles.
Advantage Angels.
If the Yankees win the WS that will give them two to bookmark the decade (assuming 2000-09 is it, and not 2001-2010). 9 playoff appearances, 7.5 division titles.
I’d have to go with the Yankees in that case.
Papelbon just didn’t get the job done. Francona was forced into the situation by an “excellent” closer.
The Red Sox wasted their 2009 sabermetric department on four pitchers.
[...] decision to walk Torii Hunter to pitch to Vlad Guerrero about as much as I did. He has 7 reasons why it was a bad move. My favorite [...]
Joe, you’re living proof of the Stephen King Theory. The more you write, the more you suck.
[...] Of course, that career has also always contained a lot of playoff failures — he has hit .259/.357/.306 with just one homer and nine RBIs over 23 postseason contests — and his regular season statistical dropoff over the past two seasons has been so severe that Terry Francona believed Boston’s best play would be to intentionally walk Torii Hunter(notes) and get to Guerrero for the third out. (An inherently dumb move, says Joe Posnanski.) [...]
I’m with Paul White, except that he watches more games than I do.
I applaud the IBB, honestly. Vlad now isn’t VladCareer. The Sox stopped hitting, and were beat by a better team. Their GM is a genius for all those 95-win teams, doing exactly what he promised he’d do.
Lester-Beckett-Buchholz next year. I’ll take my chances.
Isn’t 20/20 hindsight an amazing thing?
Can we get a “Seven Levels of the (Ryan) Howard Walk?”
They IBB’ed Howard to load the bases in the THIRD inning.
This thread is ridiculous. The Angels won the game and the series because they 1. pitched better 2. hit better 3. hit in the clutch better 4. were managed better 5. ran the bases better 6. took advantage of opportunities better 7. played better defense. 8. outscored Boston 16 to 6.
To analyze an entire series based on whether or not an intentional walk took place is ludicrous. The Angels, in this 5 game series, were the better team – PERIOD.
who is saying anything about the whole series? poz was posting about that one decision. and so was most everyone else ‘cept you. hell yeah, LAofA was better. they swept the flipping series. what’s ridiculous about writing about a crucial decision?
To add to your point, Joe, even if you’re more afraid of Hunter than Guerrero, that’s still not a good reason to intentionally walk him. Unless the hitter is a very good bad ball hitter, you should at least see if you can get him to bite at some pitches out of the zone. If you bounce a couple of splitters or throw some high heat, you at least have a chance to pick up the out.
I generally share Joe’s disdain for the IBB, and I certainly see his point, but I was actually ok with this move. Forget Pap’s lifetime numbers against Torii vs. Vlad. What was much more apparent to me as a Sox fan and somebody who watched every pitch of the series was that Hunter was the MUCH more dangerous hitter in this series. Forget about the 3 run bomb in Game 1 – he was pretty much crushing everything the whole series. He had a lot of loud outs and was clearly locked in.
Conversely, Vlad did not scare me the entire series. We all know his legendary propensity to swing at anything, but in this series he was especially undisciplined and not hitting anything hard. Yes, he walked twice in two key AB’s in the series, but I was pretty sure he’d be up there hacking and clearly Francona agreed.
The problem wasn’t in the strategy, but in the execution. Papelbon grooved a first pitch fastball strike to a guy that would’ve swung at almost anything. Pathetic.
Onto next year for us Sox fans. At least we were spared the trouncing we would’ve taken at the hands of the Yankees. I’m afraid to say it would’ve been a bloodbath.
Isn’t 20/20 hindsight an amazing thing?
You’ve never read Poz before I assume. His hatred of the IBB is well known. Like others have started he would’ve hated the move even if it had worked out.
I can see many valid reasons why Francona would prefer a matchup against Vlad rather than Hunter (Hunter was hot, has better speed, force plays at all bases, etc), but it’s the intentional part that really made it a bad move. For one thing, it messes with the muscle memory of the pitcher because he’s just thrown four pitches about four feet off the plate and high. Secondly, it sends a message to the next guy that you have no respect for his ability. But the biggest thing is that you are giving up any chance of getting Hunter out. If you *pitch around* Hunter instead, he might swing at bad pitches. Sure, he might get lucky and have the ball land somewhere, but I’m sure if you swing at bad pitches you’re ten times more likely to put the ball in play somewhere bad for an easy out, if you make contact at all. If you pitch around him and walk him, you’re still in the same situation as the IBB, except 1) your pitcher has a better idea of where the plate is, and 2) you haven’t directly insulted Guerrero.
So what if he accidentally makes a bad pitch to Hunter? How is that worse than accidentally making a bad pitch to Vlad?
I wondered about the move at the time, but I assumed baseball people had concluded Vlad was cooked and a much lesser hitter than he used to be.
I’m interested in the proposition that small sample size makes match up statistics useless and that the large sample size statistics do not support the proposition that hitters hit certain pitchers better than others. I remember from my pathetic baseball days as a kid that there were some pitchers (a small number) whom I could just hit better than other pitchers.
Can anyone provide me with a link on these issues?
I should have said that in my pathetic career there were some good pitchers whom I could hit better than other guys of equal or better ability could hit them (and better than I had any reason to expect). I left my experience certain that there was just something about the game that resulted in hitters being able to hit certain pitchers better than other comparable pitchers and that sure, if Hunter had great success against Papelbaum over about ten at bats, he was more likely to continue to have success against him than another hitter who had not done well against him in about ten at bats.
Do sabrematrics disprove that conclusion?
I am commenting as a huge Angel fan.
I was fearing for my life when they were walking Hunter. Vlad has been so disappointing with runners on base this year. I was anticipating a pitch in the left hand batters box on the first pitch. Vlad wildly lunging and popping up. I would rather have Hunter batting in that sit so I understand Francona’s decision.
How Vladi did I ever doubt you? Please, please forgive me. Vlad you can swing at all the pitches in the dirt and I will eat it all up.
Big Daddy Vladi….from his head to his toes….everybody knows…thats the way Vladi goes (to quote Rex Hudler, Angel broadcaster)
Great article, good, funny, etc. comments. Here’s my 2 bits….
Papelbon needs to learn to pitch and not just throw. A slider in the dirt to Vlad would have gotten strike 1, an outside fastball would have then been fouled for strike 2, Pap could have then finished it off with another slider away or a high fast ball.
Even a walk to Vlad isn’t the end of the world. Just don’t throw him anything too good.
An Angel Fan who loved it!
Joe, you completely missed the point again…
The POINT, is the law of averages. Francona obviously felt as if Tori Hunter was on a hot streak (the 3 for 7) and that Vlad was not quite as hot. Small sample size or not, guys get hot and go cold all the time.
The thing you seem to miss with a lot of your analysis Joe is that we ARE human. We cannot measure all of the tangibles and forget about the intangibles. Yes, tehy do exist. Leadership is real. Clutch performers exist. You are like the kid who thinks his street or neighborhood is the center of the universe. It is in fact…as far as he knows.
There are some things that affect our sports (and lives for that matter) that cannot be summed up in averages and plus statistics. Would be nice because then we could do everything perfect. Think about all of those things that you cannot measure. The statistics keep churning the same old stuff over and over again, but in reality the game is somethig more. It is more than just some guy hitting the ball, on the sweetspot…it also includes sweat and exhaustion and stress and endorphins and how much sun did the guy get today. Is he injured, or did he stub his toe this morning? Now I understand you want to isolate those things that seem integral to the sport being played, but ask any scientist…there are ALWAYS extraneous (not quite sure about that spelling there) factors that we cannot see at the moment.
I’m guessing that walk has something to do with like 1 billion factors; sometimes it works and sometimes it doesnt. What are the statistics on intentional walks, bases loaded, 9th inning, where the walked batter is not as good as the guy on deck. Sometimes, it works right?
Pete @59. The psychology arguments are meritricious. They look good, they sound good, but are they true? Some people said you are telling your pitcher you can’t get Torii out if you walk him. I suggest by walking Torii you are saying you trust your pitcher with the bases loaded. You say by walking Torii, you are insulting Vlad. I suggest by walking Torii you are putting immense pressure on a washed up superstar. The simple fact was the Red Sox were avoiding who they thought was a hot hitter (Torii) to face a walking zombie (Vlad). It didn’t hurt that a force play at any base was now an option. The Sox probably felt that a weak grounder or a grounder in the hole by Vlad was more likely than Papelbon walking him.
I don’t know what the real reason for walking Torii to face Vlad was, but if it had anything to do with 20 at bats of experience, I’ll eat my hat.
Look, Francona seems like a classy guy. He wasn’t going to say, “We thought Vlad was cooked, that’s why we wanted to face him.” Especially after it didn’t work.
The man knows what sample sizes mean. This is the guy who stuck with Pedroia in his rookie year.
Donnie Moore has been vindicated!
(however, Gene Mauk has NOT!)
I doubt there is a bigger Vlad fan on earth than me, but having said that, it don’t think it’s correct to invoke Vlad’s lifetime BA or OPS or any other lifetime situational stats to evaluate this one at-bat. If Vlad had feebly popped up or weakly grounded out, this entire article would not have been written (so really, it is YOU that is using a mall smaple size to come up with this 7-point-long thesis!).
Vlad is nowhere neae the hitter he was even 2 years ago. He is declining rapidly. I hope he rebounds, of course, but that one at-bat could have gone either way.
What none of the commenters have mentioned is a point that the broadcasters made after Vlad’s hit: that Vlad has been awful on pitches low and inside, especially fast balls but still crushes balls out over the plate. They then showed his last swings on both types of pitches: the former terrible whiffs and the latter solid contact. So maybe the real issue is Papelbon’s inability to deliver the pitch that was required. And given the wildness of his pitching up to that point (not just the walk to Figgins), depending upon his ability to hit that low inside spot may have been the biggest miscalculation that Francona made.
Just to make a point, if Michael Jordan played in the NBA TODAY, at the age of 46, I STILL wouldn’t leave him open in a potential game winning or game tying situation.
Great analysis of epic over-managing… Another point, implied here, is that the loading the bases put extra pressure on Papeljon–and right after, as you rightly point out, the manager gives him a vote of no-confidence vs Hunter. Psychology is huge in sports–ya gotta believe in hoops, golf, whatever. That’s what “in the zone” is all about, right?…..
Another point: I’m an Angels fan and its odd to me that Vlad is portrayed as washed up when he’s hitting close to .300 with decent power in a season interrupted by injury. Slipped, yes, but hardly washed up. (And love that stat on 5,000 at bats. Second to Pujols? Better than Clemente? Damn.)
I saw the game, and I was watching is from Edmonton, Alberta, Canada (I am a Jays fan, I don’t need your pity). My gut feeling was that Vladimir Guerrero WAS actually a post-season choker until he nailed that single up the middle. In the past years Vlad had failed his team in clutch situations in the post season and the Angels advanced once while Vlad went 1 for gazillion in RISP and his failures had cost them a chance to the World Series (credit the other team they face on good scouting). This situation was a pick your poison situation. I think Tori Hunter’s speed was what made Francona so freaked out on top of the 3 for 7 against Pap. A chopper or a slow roller in the infield and Hunter and the guy on 3rd (all Angel runners are fast) has the wheels to run out a single or beat a throw at home. Francona kinda put his money on Vlad to choke in the clutch again, but Vlad just proved to the MLB that he finally flushed all the butterflies in his stomach and lasered that pitch to center-field. To think about the whole thing BoSox should of tried to get Tori out nonetheless.
I didn’t even read the article before writing my comment. I *loved* the intentional walk of Torii Hunter in that position. I’m an Angels fan.
Seriously, especially since replay is another recent blog, I knew the Angels had this series won their last visit to Fenway. Everybody in the country who looks at FX data on strikes and balls knew the umpires had chickened out on ending the game with the Angels winning on a called third strike EVEN THOUGH THEY THREW STRIKES. They couldn’t get a call on a checked swing when the batter himself thought he was out. Not one strike, more than one strike. And Mike Scioscia, a man who learned his managerial style from The Sphinx, risked fines by complaining, and I could just see the team gel. But more than that, a collective shudder went through baseball’s umpires: yes, we really screwed up important calls while there was still a pennant race, we showed gross favoritism towards the Red Sox because we really don’t want to get killed on our way back to the hotel tonight, so we’d better clean up our act in the playoffs.
Do I think that’s why the Angels got the benefit of so many close calls at first base? Hard to tell. They probably didn’t help the Angels all that much, although more pitches never helps a tiring arm. But I think the Angels decided that they had to win despite what baseball and the umpires wanted, and I think they’re headed towards their second World Series title.
Baseball is a game of many things, but one of the most important is motivation. The Angels, as cohesive a team as there is in baseball, have more motivation than anybody else, and they took it out on the Red Sox.
Torii Hunter, in one of the best seasons of his life, batted .299. Not bad at all.
Vladdy Guerrero, in one of the worst seasons of his life, batted .250 and .240 the first two months of the season, spent a bunch of the time on the DL, and came back fairly strong. His OBP was .334. He didn’t have a great September, but he was also dinged up some.
Now a .334 OBP is pretty lousy, and a .299 BA is pretty good. But when you walk Hunter Guerrero drives in the tying run with a walk, a hit by pitch, an error. And Guerrero in this off year, in Hunter’s great year, gets on base about one in 30 at bats more than Hunter gets a hit.
If it were Albert Pujols or even Joe Mauer, then maybe I agree with that intentional walk. But that’s it. Hunter’s superb, but he’s not one of the two best hitters in baseball; he’s not one of the 20 best. The IBB was a mistake no matter how it turned out.
I hear the “small sample size” argument from statheads so often that it drives me nuts. NONE of them ever tell me what an adequate sample size is. If you are going to use that argument (and it IS a sensible argument) FIRST you must tell me what you consider a suitable sample size so I can scoff and ridicule too. Why should YOU have all that fun?
This one bugs me too.
“Now, as tempting as it is to believe that certain hitters have advantages over certain pitchers — and vice versa — there is precious little data to actually back this up. Yes, there’s plenty of PAST data. We can look at previous numbers. We can know that Hunter has had more success against Papelbon than Guerrero, relatively speaking. But there are quite a few studies out there that show, pretty persuasively, that this tells us nothing about how those two will do against Papelbon in the future. Nothing.” My broker sells me stocks (or tries to) by quoting past performances, but in small print at the bottom of his recommendation he always says “past performance is no indication of future performance.” My point is that using ANY past stats as an indicator of future success is guesswork at best. When I flip my coin the odds are nearly 100% that it will land either heads or tails. We just don’t know which until after the flip. If we have Francona tell us he walked Guerrero because his gut said that would be the best course, it would be just as sensible a decision as Posnanski’s stats. They are both guessing. Francona just doesn’t make his living second guessing Posnanski.
@75:
> I hear the “small sample size” argument from statheads so often that it drives me nuts. NONE of them ever tell me what an adequate sample size is.
Sure they do. Adequate sample size for a series between two teams, to adequately “prove” which team is better? Best-of-23. How’s that for an example?
Sorry I can’t give you chapter & verse, but I’ve read it in more than one place that I tend to trust statistically. Bill James may have been one.
So, we can rely on Papelbon’s walk rate from this year, but we must rely on avg (?)/obp/slug from Hunter’s and Guerrerro’s careers? Is consistent rationale too much to hope for?
#66 Josh in DC is exactly right in my book. My take is that Francona figured that Guerrero looks terrible right now, he’s extremely unlikely to walk in that situation, and is more likely to chase a bad pitch.
I still don’t like the intentional walk there, but from what I know about Francona, that seems more likely to be the real reasoning, or at least a big unspoken part of it.
Another decision I didn’t like in that situation was the Sox outfield playing so deep. A single basically beats you, so why not play shallower to try to take that away? They seemed to be way back in “no-doubles” land.
Yes, a double there definitely beats you, but a single is pretty much just as bad, the way the Sox were going. Why not play your standard depth, where you are most likely to get to most balls?
At any rate, the Angels were the better team and I think they were still going to win the series even if they lost that game.
I just hope the Angels play just as well against the Yankees as they did against Boston, but I get the feeling that this time they won’t.
Article is spot on about walking Hunter. I played baseball my whole life and understand its nuances very well. I was watching the game intensely by myself, and I was complete shock by the managerial decision. NEVER force the Go Ahead Run to second base (especially in the 9th inning) with an intentional walk. A mere single give your opponent the lead. Duh? A single to Hunter would not have been nearly disatrous. That’s the real point of why the decision was so dumb. Even if Vlad was a .250 hitter that is still only a differential of like 6 hits out of 100 at-bats compared to Hunter, but were talking about a guy who has had a hall of fame career based on hitting.
I like Francona, and he normally makes wise moves, but this event was so curious. He is probably the only manager in all of baseball who one of done that.
As far an IBB goes, I think its fine in the and don’t have a problem with them when done correctly, but they must be used very judiciously. That situation is one of the exact worst times to do so EVER.
Cool, author is a Dodgers fan too. Go Blue!
Haven’t had chance to read all the comments yet, but personally, I thought they had a better chance of getting Vlad out than Hunter. I don’t think they were really relying upon sample size, they were relying upon scouting that says Vlad can’t hit good fastballs anymore. I’m sure in the same situation, the Angels would have walked Youkilis to get to Papi (who also can no longer get around on a good fastball).
By the way, I agree with Paul White that you could tell right away (as in the 8th inning) that Papelbon didn’t have it. Which is why I thought they should have brought in Okajima to face Abreu.
@79:
The winning run was *already* on second. The IBB only put Hunter on first, which was empty at that point: it didn’t change who was (or wasn’t) on second or third. Viz.:
“Angels ninth. Youkilis in as third baseman. Gathright in as designated hitter. Kotchman in as first baseman. Izturis fouled out to catcher Martinez. Matthews Jr. pinch-hitting for Napoli. Matthews Jr. flied out to center fielder Ellsbury. Aybar singled to center. On defensive indifference, Aybar to second. Figgins walked on a full count. Abreu doubled to left, Aybar scored, Figgins to third. Hunter was intentionally walked. Guerrero singled to center, Figgins scored, Abreu scored, Hunter to second. Okajima pitching. Morales flied out to left fielder Bay.”
Oops, the *go-ahead* run was already on second; it wasn’t yet the *winning* run.
And I just spotted a bigger mistake that Francona made: “Gathright in as designated hitter.” Jesus.
Extend the argument to level 8
Everyone has pride. For people who are unbelievably talented, they often have excess pride about their ability because they know they have it and they can switch it on when needed. By challenging an amazing hitter like Vlad, you gave him extra motivation to really show you off.
I wonder if Joe would have had Zack Greinke intentionally walk Joe Mauer with two outs in the sixth inning of the Royals’ Saturday game with Minnesota on the final weekend.
[...] That was quick, huh? Part of me wanted this series to go on as long as possible, but seeing Papelbon blow a save in Fenway when he was 1 strike away is about as good as it gets. Should be a fun winter of second-guessing Francona as well. How could you possibly intentionally walk Hunter with 2 outs to face Guerrero? I would break this one down further, but instead I’ll just direct you to Joe Posnanski, who, not surprisingly, captures my confusion. [...]