Comments on: The Remarkable Royals II http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/ A Rough Draft Blog Wed, 10 Mar 2010 11:03:48 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Unknown Royals Fan http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79863 Unknown Royals Fan Sat, 03 Oct 2009 03:38:09 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79863 The problem with the question is that it drastically overrates the importance of the "closer." Want a real example of losing big with a dominant starter? 1972 Phillies. Lefty Carlton goes 27-10, 1.97 ERA, 341 innings, 310 K's, completes 30 of his 41 starts. The rest of the Phillies staff went 32-93 that year. Yes, Lefty won 27 of the 59 games that the Phils won. We can argue all day about the value of the "wins" stat - the argument of course driven by the LACK of wins by the Royals and Zack - but to do so disrespects the few pitchers who, like Lefty, were able to take truly awful teams and elevate them every fourth day to being winners. In fact, in that context, it's possible that Carlton's 1972 season was one of the very best ever by any pitcher. And yes, he won the Cy. The problem with the question is that it drastically overrates the importance of the “closer.” Want a real example of losing big with a dominant starter? 1972 Phillies. Lefty Carlton goes 27-10, 1.97 ERA, 341 innings, 310 K’s, completes 30 of his 41 starts. The rest of the Phillies staff went 32-93 that year. Yes, Lefty won 27 of the 59 games that the Phils won. We can argue all day about the value of the “wins” stat – the argument of course driven by the LACK of wins by the Royals and Zack – but to do so disrespects the few pitchers who, like Lefty, were able to take truly awful teams and elevate them every fourth day to being winners. In fact, in that context, it’s possible that Carlton’s 1972 season was one of the very best ever by any pitcher. And yes, he won the Cy.

]]> By: Jick http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79545 Jick Thu, 01 Oct 2009 09:51:50 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79545 Rob, if you're asking just for the Royals' #4 batters, here's what Baseball-Reference has on their batting splits page: .208 .279 .310 .590 An OPS+ of 45 compared to the league average for clean-up hitters... http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=KCR&year=2009 Rob, if you’re asking just for the Royals’ #4 batters, here’s what Baseball-Reference has on their batting splits page:

.208 .279 .310 .590

An OPS+ of 45 compared to the league average for clean-up hitters…

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=KCR&year=2009

]]> By: Joe Shlabotnik http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79519 Joe Shlabotnik Thu, 01 Oct 2009 02:25:30 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79519 I, for one, am glad Zack is not pitching against the Yanks this week. Yanks are phoning it in. His last two games will be against a Twins team that might still be in the race. I'm sure if Zack had done well we would have heard an east coast chorus of, "Sure he threw a shutout, but the Yanks had clenched already and sat seven of their starters after 6 innings." I, for one, am glad Zack is not pitching against the Yanks this week. Yanks are phoning it in. His last two games will be against a Twins team that might still be in the race. I’m sure if Zack had done well we would have heard an east coast chorus of, “Sure he threw a shutout, but the Yanks had clenched already and sat seven of their starters after 6 innings.”

]]> By: Jeff P http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79500 Jeff P Wed, 30 Sep 2009 22:55:28 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79500 Well of course the results will change but thats because a 2.25 ERA is rare, especially in the current era. But why would he need to change the parameters to 2.50 when Greinke and Soria are well below that. That also wouldn't be a true comparison. Well of course the results will change but thats because a 2.25 ERA is rare, especially in the current era. But why would he need to change the parameters to 2.50 when Greinke and Soria are well below that. That also wouldn’t be a true comparison.

]]> By: MikeD http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79460 MikeD Wed, 30 Sep 2009 18:22:29 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79460 It's a fun question and answer, but not sure what it says. As another poster noted, chance the benchmarks to a slightly higher ERA, or a few less saves, and the results will change. Also, going back to 1965 doesn't say much. Saves have changed dramatically over the years. During the 1965-1985(ish) period, bullpens were used differently. One-inning saves were rare, and closers came in with runners on base, thereby lowering the number of saves, and increasing the ERA. All said, there aren't a whole lot of seasons to compare here, making it meaningless. (But, yeah, Scott Boras and his team would try to use such stats to get more money for their clients.) It’s a fun question and answer, but not sure what it says. As another poster noted, chance the benchmarks to a slightly higher ERA, or a few less saves, and the results will change.

Also, going back to 1965 doesn’t say much. Saves have changed dramatically over the years. During the 1965-1985(ish) period, bullpens were used differently. One-inning saves were rare, and closers came in with runners on base, thereby lowering the number of saves, and increasing the ERA. All said, there aren’t a whole lot of seasons to compare here, making it meaningless. (But, yeah, Scott Boras and his team would try to use such stats to get more money for their clients.)

]]> By: Michael_Q http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79453 Michael_Q Wed, 30 Sep 2009 15:31:18 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79453 Reminds me of last year had the best pitcher in the league (Lee) and a guy who was one of the top position players (Sizemore). Yet still managed to be pretty bad. Not as bad as the Royals are this year but still pretty bad. A closer has less impact on a poor team. To get the most out of an elite closer you have to assume the team has late inning leads to protect a lot. I doubt the Royals record would be much different if they had a closer who was merely league average. Reminds me of last year had the best pitcher in the league (Lee) and a guy who was one of the top position players (Sizemore). Yet still managed to be pretty bad. Not as bad as the Royals are this year but still pretty bad.

A closer has less impact on a poor team. To get the most out of an elite closer you have to assume the team has late inning leads to protect a lot. I doubt the Royals record would be much different if they had a closer who was merely league average.

]]> By: Rob http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79440 Rob Wed, 30 Sep 2009 13:39:07 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79440 "How difficult is it to lose 90+ games with that combination?" Well, keep in mind that there are approximately 125-130 games where Greinke is not pitching, the team generally does not score a lot of runs when he does pitch, and that Soria generally only pitches on those rare occassions when the team is ahead late in the game. Add in a manager who still hasn't figured out after 157 games that Kyle Farnsworth should not be anywhere near the pitching mound late in the game in a close game, and you can get 90 losses pretty easily. Joe, any chance you can update us on the #4 batter stats? Thanks. “How difficult is it to lose 90+ games with that combination?”

Well, keep in mind that there are approximately 125-130 games where Greinke is not pitching, the team generally does not score a lot of runs when he does pitch, and that Soria generally only pitches on those rare occassions when the team is ahead late in the game. Add in a manager who still hasn’t figured out after 157 games that Kyle Farnsworth should not be anywhere near the pitching mound late in the game in a close game, and you can get 90 losses pretty easily.

Joe, any chance you can update us on the #4 batter stats? Thanks.

]]> By: nick http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79425 nick Wed, 30 Sep 2009 08:02:54 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79425 Love ya, Joe, but--your friend Bill James writes about "agent tricks", where if a guy hits 273 with 17 jacks 14 steals and 8 OF assists, his agent comes up with a set of guys who had AT LEAST 273/17/14/8 and guess what? all of those guys are better, so it's a misleading set.... with Soria and Greinke you're doing the same trick. try setting the cut-off at 2.50 and see what it looks like. Love ya, Joe, but–your friend Bill James writes about “agent tricks”, where if a guy hits 273 with 17 jacks 14 steals and 8 OF assists, his agent comes up with a set of guys who had AT LEAST 273/17/14/8 and guess what? all of those guys are better, so it’s a misleading set….

with Soria and Greinke you’re doing the same trick. try setting the cut-off at 2.50 and see what it looks like.

]]> By: Tenacious Royals D http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79384 Tenacious Royals D Wed, 30 Sep 2009 00:51:26 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79384 Greinke is pitching in front of an atrocious, atrocious Defense. how many earned runs has the defense cost Greinke? what is Greinke's ERA in front of a league average defense? Greinke is pitching in front of an atrocious, atrocious Defense.
how many earned runs has the defense cost Greinke? what is Greinke’s ERA in front of a league average defense?

]]> By: Daniel http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79377 Daniel Tue, 29 Sep 2009 23:46:28 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/29/the-remarkable-royals-ii/#comment-79377 "The 1996 Marlins did manage a losing record with the combination in 1996, however, and they won the World Series the very next year. So … don’t stop believing!" Trust The Process “The 1996 Marlins did manage a losing record with the combination in 1996, however, and they won the World Series the very next year. So … don’t stop believing!”

Trust The Process

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