200-200-200 seasons
Posted: September 18th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 98 Comments »
Well, this has been a disorienting week. I have spent the last three days locked in my office talking to various radio stations around the country about The Machine.* People have been great, the questions have been good, but it’s an odd and exhausting feeling just talking and talking and talking and talking about a book you wrote.
After a while, you do feel like Bill Murray in Groundhog’s Day doing his “Once again, the eyes of the nation have turned here to this tiny little village in Western Pennsylvania … blah blah blah … there is no way that this winter is EVER going to end as long as this groundhog keeps seeing his shadow. I don’t see any other way out. He has to be stopped. I have to stop him.”
*Usually, I’m not much for the Amazon “deals.” They don’t make a lot of sense to me. For instance, on The Machine page, you can now buy my book, Dan Brown’s book and the Ted Kennedy book for $50.62. Really? Are a lot of people bundling those three books? I mean, hey, Amazon folks obviously know a whole lot more about selling books than I know about anything in the world … so maybe there are some religious mystery loving liberals who want to read about Pete Rose, Joe Morgan and Johnny Bench. I hope so.
But I did want to point out this deal. You can buy The Machine AND The Soul of Baseball for $20.58. I mean, you can buy more or less my entire literary career for a couple of sawbucks. It’s all about two Hamiltons, baby.
Also, you might want to go to Barnes & Noble where the Machine is just CLINGING to a spot in the Top 100. As of this writing, it is No. 99. So cool to have a book in the Top 100, even if it’s only for a few hours. I have told friends that I really don’t want much in life … but I would love just ONE WEEK on the New York Times Bestseller list. Just one week. Nobody would ever be able to take that away … just one week!
Anyway, I go to Cincinnati Saturday — I’m at the Reds Hall of Fame at 5:30 p.m. for my book kickoff party. Sunday, I’m at the Joseph Beth in Norwood at 1 p.m. And then, maybe, life gets back to normal and I can once again feel comfortable writing ridiculous posts about baseball awards, the ever-increasing lunacy of Snuggies and thoughts about NFL announcers.
In fact … here’s one of those posts now. Here is the complete list of pitchers who have had 200-200-200 seasons … that is pitchers who threw 200 innings, had a 200 ERA+ or better and struck out at least 200 batters.
It’s a very small list, so this won’t take long.
– Pedro Martinez, 1997, 1999 and 2000.
Comment: The guy is beyond incredible. He won the Cy Young all three times. It’s the greatest stretch of pitching, I think, in baseball history.
– Roger Clemens, 1990 and 1997.
Comment: He lost the Cy Young in 1990 to 27-game winner (and vastly inferior) Bob Welch, even though Welch’s ERA was a full run higher than Clemens, and he walked more, and he struck out 80 fewer batters and he gave up 19 more homers and so on. Clemens did win the Cy Young in 1997 the year after he was spurned by Boston — that might be the best season of Rocket’s career.
– Walter Johnson, 1912 and 1913
Comment: The Big Train at his Big Trainy best. He won the MVP in 1913 — led the league in wins, won-loss percentage, ERA (of course — 1.14), complete games, shutouts, WHIP, walks per nine, strikeouts per nine. There was no Cy Young Award. There was a Cy Young, however (he had just retired), and he never pulled off the 200-200-200 feat, in large part because he never had 200 Ks in a season. In 1901, though, Cy Young had a 216 ERA+ and he led the league with 158 Ks. He also threw 371 innings, so there is that.
– Dwight Gooden, 1985
Comment: I remember as a kid going over to my friend Robert’s house whenever Gooden pitched that season. Robert was a Mets fan, he was the first (and only) kid I knew who had satellite television. It was such an event every time Gooden pitched. Of course, he won the Cy Young. He looked like he would dominate forever.
– Ron Guidry, 1978
Comment: Another of the great pitching seasons in baseball history. I remember not long after this reading Ron Guidry’s book — the appropriately titled “Guidry.” For some reason, that book and a book about Philadelphia Flyers goalkeeper Bernie Parent (with the equally fitting title “Bernie!”) are two of the sports biographies that stand out in my childhood. I vividly remember reading the slogan in the Parent book: “Only the Lord saves more than Bernie Parent.” Thought, later, I would come to appreciate the even better hockey line “Jesus saves and Esposito scores on the rebound.”
– Bob Gibson, 1968
Comment: A 1.12 ERA, a league-leading 268 Ks, a preposterous 0.858 WHIP — league hit .184 against him — and yet he somehow lost nine games that year.
– Pete Alexander, 1915
Comment: You know, for years and years, I only knew him as Grover Cleveland Alexander. And I remember reading something Bill James wrote once how you could make an argument for Pete Alexander as the greatest pitcher of all time. And for a few minutes, I panicked because I had never heard of Pete Alexander … was there really a pitcher good enough to be considered the greatest of all time that I had NEVER EVEN HEARD OF? Then I realized it was Grover Cleveland Alexander. I can’t remember if this was before or after I saw the irrepressibly awful movie “The Winning Team” with Ronald Reagan.
– Christy Mathewson, 1905
Comment: A 1.28 ERA that year and a 31-9 record. And if I’m not mistaken, he might have had a pretty decent postseason that year.
OK, so seven pitchers have pulled off that remarkable feat — and each of those seasons was legendary. It just goes to show you that … oh, wait a minute. I forgot a pitcher. Wow, look at who it is …
– Zack Greinke. 2009
Comment: Yes, this whole thing was just a way to once again tell you how good a season Zack Greinke is having. I’m mostly preaching to the choir here … but Greinke’s is not just the best pitching season of this year. It’s probably the best pitching season of the last five years, maybe the last 10 years going back to Pedro. It’s historical. The guy has pitched 210 innings, he has a 204 ERA+ and 224 strikeouts. He leads or is second in the league numerous other categories — gone over those a few dozen times already. But all you really need to understand the season is that 200-200-200 thing. This is a magical season.
I think we all know where I stand on the American League MVP — to me Joe Mauer is far and away the league’s most valuable player, and the arguments for other players sound to me like arguments that begin with a premise and end with that premise being proven correct. If I want to find reasons why Mauer SHOULD NOT win the MVP, I can find those reasons too — he missed some playing time, he isn’t superhuman and so doesn’t catch every single day, he may be hitting .374 and leading the league in slugging and on-base percentage but he has not singlehandedly made the Twins a great team.
But if I begin with the premise “I want to find who is the most valuable player in the American League” I come up Mauer every single time.
That said: Greinke is even more of a slam dunk. I don’t even think there’s a legitimate argument to made against him. As Devil Fingers and others have pointed out — you could make a real case for Greinke as MVP. But moving past that — the Cy Young goes to the best pitcher. That’s all. There’s no vagueness in the title — no tricky words like “valuable” to give people loopholes to make the award what they want it to be about. Greinke is without a doubt that best pitcher in the American League. He’s the best pitcher in baseball. He’s having one of the great pitching seasons of our lifetime. Other guys are having good seasons — Felix Hernandez is having a hard-luck, Zack-Greinke-lite season. Justin Verlander leads the league in strikeouts. Roy Halladay is Roy Halladay. C.C. Sabathia might win 20.
But if someone else should happen to win the Cy Young because he won five more games than Greinke or something irrational like that, well, I don’t believe it will happen. I just don’t. He’s going to win the Cy Young.
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Top-notch stuff again, JP. And thanks for it.
“He’s going to win the Cy Young” – I wish I could share your certainty Joe, but I just can’t.
Somehow, some way, Greinke is going to get denied.
I, of course, would love to be proven wrong.
“But if someone else should happen to win the Cy Young because he won five more games than Greinke or something irrational like that, well, I don’t believe it will happen. I just don’t. He’s going to win the Cy Young.”
As a Royal’s fan, I believe that Zack Greinke will not win the Cy Young this year. I have no rational or logical argument here, it’s just that as a fan of this laughable franchise for so long, I’ve become accustomed to having the rug pulled out from under me at any and all times.
There’s no reason to believe he’ll be denied. In fact, I don’t think there’s ever been a time where a Royal was denied an award. Hamelin, Berroa, Saberhagen..they all got theirs. Greinke will get his.
You are the man!!! Love your stuff, as a die hard Yankee fan, there is no question in my mind that Mauer and Greinke should win their respected awards. I love what Tex has been doing with the Yanks, but you can make an argument about that with 9 other first basement. Now the thing is Derek Jeter will probably get the nod for AL MVP for what he accomplished (overtaking “The Iron Horse” in hits).
I can’t wait to purchase your book.
Ward
If CC Sabathia pitched for the Royals, he’d've won 20 games and lifted his team with magic clutchnessity. Miguel Olivo would’ve walked a full 30 times!
/sarcasm
Fantastic. Goes along with the two-part piece we *just* finished:
http://houseofgeorges.blogspot.com/2009/09/hog25-25-best-starting-pitchers-of-last.html
http://houseofgeorges.blogspot.com/2009/09/25-best-starting-pitchers-of-last-25.html
Zach Grienke deserves the AL Cy Young, heck if there was a MLB Cy Young he should get that.
If I had a vote, you’ve just taken all the fun out of my vote for him.
I hope the other Cy Young voters don’t read this post. I can see you are very passionate about this but you need to talk to some political consultants on how to get people on your side. You’re facts are great, you’re tactic (tone, the way you come off) not so much.
I love your writing, but lately (in my opinion) there’s too much “How could anyone have any other opinion?” You are a smart man and a talented writer, but even Einstein made mistakes.
I know some people are just going to tell me not to visit the site if I don’t like it. I just think it’s a a shame because you and Bill Simmons are two of my most fun reads (and this from a Yankee fan).
Release the hounds.
All of the above past pitching seasons were remarkable. The one in my lifetime that might have been most meaningful was Bob Gibson’s 1968 campaign. His success created more off season work for groundskeepers all over the country. They had to take their picks and shovels to pitching mounds that were so high the catcher crouched behind homeplate could not see his centerfielder. Someone once joked that sherpas delivered the balls to Dodger pitchers at Chavez Ravine.
For sheer joy, watching Guidry’s 1978 season was a highlight and I don’t even like the Yankees (but I like the Red Sox even less!).
#4 – In fact, I don’t think there’s ever been a time where a Royal was denied an award.
1985 – Brett got robbed of the MVP because Don Mattingly had more RBI’s. True story.
1993 – Kevin Appier led the league in ERA (2.56) and ERA+ (179) but lost the award to Jack McDowell (3.37 & 125). McDowell won 22 games, Appier only won 18. And oh yeah, Appier finished 3rd in CYA voting.
Greinke is going to win the Cy Young and it’s not going to be close.
In all seriousness, I’ll gladly take bets on this.
For you Royals fans, can anyone project when Zack’s next two starts will fall? Hoping against hope that we will get him here in NY.
The real issue this morning continues to be the Beatles/Genius poll, in which only nine votes now separate Ruth and Gehrig (Lennon & Macca) from being joined by Don Mattingly (George Harrison).
Hello, #12…the obvious answer is there were only two musical geniuses on the Beatles…McCartney and Lennon. Harrison was great and all…but you could switch him out with Eddie VanHalen or Slash or Glen Frey or Joe Walsh or any other great guitarist, and the band would have sounded the same.
my life is now complete
Hi #13 Jeremy, I did in fact vote “3.” The crux of the Harrison campaign rests with one quote, Frank Sinatra’s appraisal of the song “Something”: “I believe George Harrison’s hauntingly beautiful song is one of the greatest love songs ever written, and it never even says ‘I love you.’ ” This, at the very least, gets George some separation from the likes of Eddie, Slash, Frey, and Walsh.
Gibson’s 1968 gamelog is a treat.
Thirteen shutouts and 28 complete games, with four starts going 10+ innings.
And he had to deal with Tim McCarver in the clubhouse without strangling him. So, bonus points for that.
I didn’t believe it would happen in 2005, either. That certainly didn’t help my mood when it did happen.
#5 – Really? Jeter will get consideration because he passed Gehrig for…FIFTY-SECOND on the all time hits list?
If ZG doesn’t get the Cy, it will be because of what Gammons referenced this morning on Mike&Mike. He did not make a single start against either the Yankees or Red Sox, and 3 of his losses all came against the Angels.
No individual genius in the Beatles. The Beatles as a whole were genius, and the songwriting team of Lennon and McCartney was genius. But the solo careers help to clarify exactly how far the individual Beatles are from bonafide genius (e.g., Dylan). Bill James’ point about triple eights in a poker hand (vs. an ace in another hand) is relevant.
A reply to post #16
I think we should create a McCarver survival award, given to the person/group who has to put up with McCarver the most in any given season. Joe Buck is not eligible, since he encourages McCarver’s awfulness.
Gibson would obviously win in ‘68.
Red Sox nation wins in ‘03.
Other nominees?
jjskck: People are in fact making that argument (FJM ripped someone to shreds for it during their guest-editor stint on Deadspin). It may be the single stupidest MVP argument I’ve ever heard, but it has been made.
Thankfully, I don’t think the abject stupidity is widespread enough to deprive Mauer of his MVP. But it’s at least somewhat possible, though most of Jeter’s voters probably wouldn’t be voting on the basis of “became #1 on the Yankees hit list.”
Last night on SportsCenter I stumbled across a segment where Steve Phillips was asked about Greinke’s chances of winning the Cy Young. My immediate presumption was that Phillips would make one of his usual arguments about how Greinke just doesn’t seem to have a knack for collecting wins, therefore he’s not deserving of the award. You know, a variation on the usual Steve Phillips theme. Instead, Phillips said that he thought Greinke was not only the best pitcher in the league and deserving of the award, by also said that the fact that the Royals stink behind him actually enhances his case, not detracts from it.
It was at that moment that I became convinced Greinke’s actually going to win the Cy Young. I mean, if Steve Freakin’ Phillips gets it, surely the BBWAA voters will.
Jeter deserves the Cy Young award.
“if I begin with the premise “I want to find who is the most valuable player in the American League” I come up Mauer every single time.”
What about the guy who’s having a “historical”, “magical” season who is also, according to fangraphs, leading Mauer by a full win over replacement value (8.6 to 7.5)?
Honestly Joe, I think you’re doing the same exact thing as the people you’ve criticized about MVP voting – you’re flat ignoring objective information that rates another candidate superior to the one (Mauer) you back.
Another question: Would you EVER be able to support a pitcher for MVP, and if yes, what would Zacky have to do to get there?
Joaldo,
Ordered the book from Amazon, though I have a sneaky suspicion that they won’t ship it for a while since I preordered Macmanus’s new book on poker, too, at the same time. Give a guy a break, Amazon!
Also, wrestling with the fact that I have tickets to see New Model Army in Manhattan on the same evening that you’re reading in Brooklyn! What do I do? There must be a way to do both. What would Greinke do?
Reeling from learning that Peter Abraham won’t be keeping his Yankees blog anymore and will be a Red Sox beat reporter. Oh, the humanity!
Looking forward to the book.
“He’s going to win the Cy Young.”
Great…way to jinx it, JOE!!!
Response to #19:
Gammons argument (that Greinke has faced inferior opponents as compared to the other candidates) simply has NO BASIS IN FACT.
Check out Baseball Prospectus statistics on quality of batters faced, and you will see essentially no difference in the Avg OPS against for Greinke, Sabathia, Hernandez, and Verlander.
I hate it when a highly paid guy like Gammons is TOO DAMN LAZY to actually look up some facts to support an argument. (Well, maybe he looked them up, saw that they didn’t help his argument, and chose to ignore them, which would be EVEN WORSE)
OK, here are the opp avg OPS for some Cy Young candidates, thru 9/17 games:
Halladay 776
Sabathia 751
Greinke 753
Verlander 762
Hernandez 758
Pretty insignificant differences there – certainly nothing that would explain Greinke having an ERA around a full run lower than all on this list save Hernandez.
Yet another response to #19:
Greinke DID NOT lose to the Angels 3 times. In fact, he only started 2 games against them. First game, 8 IP, 1 ER allowed, CG loss. Second game, 8 IP, 0 ER allowed, ND.
That would be 16 IP, 1 ER allowed, ERA of 0.56
Yeah, that’s a reason for voters to deny him the award.
NOT!
Not for nothing, but @25 brought up the point that Joe Mauer Win Above Replacement value is 7.5. Does this mean that if the Twins had a replacement level catcher they would only lose 7.5 games from their current win total. Does that seem absurdly low to anyone else? I would assume that a team of AAA replacement level players would theoretically have to have the worst record in the majors. Theoretically the worst ever, since no major league team I have ever heard of has ever been comprised of just RL players (I haven’t looked at the Mets roster from their first year).
I haven’t added the totals for the Yankee roster this year, but this stat, WAR seems inaccurate to me.
Also using RC (which theoretically sounds like a decent stat), Joe Mauer has 114.5, Jeter has 109, is that too big a difference to make up by being an everyday (above avg fielding, according to this years stats) SS versus a most-days below avg catcher, sometimes DH?
RE: #20: EABinSTL: Well-put. The solo careers were indeed un-stellar. And, at 12:12 p.m. CDT 09.18, “3″ has moved within three votes of the lead, appropriately enough.
“I mean, if Steve Freakin’ Phillips gets it, surely the BBWAA voters will.”
There’s only one logical expanation for this: Steve Phillips has been replaced by an alien replicant….
Sorry for the overuse of the word “theoretically” in comment 31. Need to get a thesaurus, and maybe a dictionary too since I don’t know if I even spelled it correctly.
ZG will not when the Cy for one simple reason: he uses performance enhancers.
@35 Proof? or are you being sarcastic?
Otherwise that is just wrong.
@36. the proof has been stated in many national newspapers. the guy’s on antidepressants. i’m not trying to make light of it, but we’ve seen his performance when he’s not on them and his performance now. is this not considered PED?
Just looked at the WAR for the Yankees as a team and it is 51.7. Would a RL team have won 42 games so far? Seems a little high but not as off as I thought it was.
@37 I guess you can call any medication a PED. Under your definition as far as I can see here Advil would ba PED. A vaccine you received as a child, PED. Alka Seltzer, Pepto-Bismol, PEDs.
Is prune juice ok or is that PED as well?
I love the 200-200-200 club for pitchers. Here are some near misses i found starting going back to 1955:
Pitchers with >200era+, but without 200 K’s or 2oo innings pitched:
Greg Maddux 1994, 271era+!!! missed by 44 k’s because of the strike.
Greg Maddux 1995, 262er+!!!, missed by 19′k’s because of the strike.
Pedro Martinez 2002, 202era+, missed by 2/3 inning
Pedro Martinez 2003, 210era+, missed by 13 1/3 innings.
Roger Clemens 2005, 226era+, missed by 15 k’s.
Kevin Brown 1996, 216era+, missed by 41 k’s.
Billy Pierce 1955, 201era+, missed by 43 k’s.
Here’s a list of pitchers who had over 200 k’s and innings pitched but had just under a 200era+:
Randy Johnson 2002, 197era+
Randy Johnson 1997, 196era+
Tom Seaver 1971, 193era+
Sandy Koufax 1966, 190era+
Wilber Wood 1971, 188era+
Randy Johnson 2001, 188era+
Sandy Koufax 1964, 187era+
Tim Lincecum 2009, 187era+
Greg Maddux 1998, 187era+
Randy Johnson 1999, 186era+
Vida Blue 1971, 185era+
Luis Tiant 1968, 186era+
Steve Carlton 1972, 182era+
Johan Santana 2004, 182era+
Randy Johnson 2000, 181era+
Prune juice = PED (Poop enhancing drug)
@joe in jersey don’t blame me, man. i don’t make up the stupid fake rules. it just seems to me that if we’re going to ruin players’ reputations based on things they may or may not have used, that we must go hard on players whom we know are using stuff, especially when such use has a known, positive, material impact on performance.
personally, i vote for having a more nuanced discussion re “PEDs” among baseball people and the public. but until that happens, it seems strange to make pariahs out of some and Cy Youngs out of others.
Seriously, Peter, think about the ramifications of what you’re saying. Is insulin a PED for a diabetic? Is whatever Rocco Baldelli takes for his mitochondrial disorder a PED? We have to stop stigmatizing mental health issues. Diseases require medication. Medication sometimes enables a person to function. This should not be ridiculed.
@3rd period points i’m not ridiculing anything. i’m asking people to reexamine what “performance enhancing” means. we call HGH, steroids, etc “performanc enhancing.” but do they actually enhance performance? I suggest we don’t know. I suggest that we think they enhance performance mostly because they’re called performance enhancers.
i’m not stigmatizing mental health as much as i’m suggesting that our view of PEDs is influenced by our country’s “war on drugs” mentality, i.e., we’re more interested in punishing than understanding what drugs do (or don’t do).
Joe, while you’re in Cincinnati this weekend, be sure to walk up to 5th street from GABP and grab some good German brew at Oktoberfest. You won’t regret it.
I am sick of your opinion inhibiting my freedom. Last I checked this was still America.
JETAH4MVP!!!!!!
It’s interesting to note that Randy Johnson just missed accomplishing this mark 5 times.
Maddux just missed 3 times, and Pedro was 14 innings away from accomplishing this mark 5 times in his career.
It’s interesting to note how many times these seasons, which are easily among the best of the past 50 years didn’t result in a Cy Young.
Pedro: 02, 03
Clemens: 05
Brownn: 96
Johnson: 97
Seaver: 71
Koufax: 64
Maddux: 98
Tiant: 68
Wood: 71
The award did not exist until 1956 so Pierce probably would have won the award that year had it existed.
Lincecum’s 2009 Cy Young has yet to be determined.
Going back to Joe’s original list, Clemens in 1990 was robbed because the media/fans of the day completely overvalued W-L records.
@44 In my opinion you have a very valid point. It totally did not come across that way in @35.
“that we must go hard on players whom we know are using stuff”
Stuff?
Prescribed medications are not “stuff”.
This argument is about as ludicrous as the Jeter breaking Yankee record for hits = MVP argument.
No, I take it back, it’s more ludicrous.
Based on your criteria, no player would be allowed to take an aspirin, ibuprofen, etc., or use Preparation H, or Tums, or Pepto-Bismol, or wear contacts….
@ward is it a ludicrous agrument or an argument that makes you uncomfortable? perhaps sorta somewhat analogous to how “statistics” make “baseball people” feel uncomfortable?
Anyone with more hits than Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, and Mantle is a damn fine player.
Re the Beatles poll – One can make an argument for the 3 genius talents, but what about the 4th? George Martin.
Get that Cy for Zack.
The “Big Trainy.” I like it.
“is it a ludicrous agrument or an argument that makes you uncomfortable?”
No, it’s a ludicrous argument.
Again, based on your criteria, no player would be allowed to take an aspirin, ibuprofen, etc., or use Preparation H, or Tums, or Pepto-Bismol, or Claritin, or contacts, or wear a knee brace, as those are all “performance enhancers”, by your definition.
Re: #52: CharlesH: Hear, hear! 1:06 p.m. CDT, Lennon/Macca stretch lead to six over The Quiet One.
If Lincecum can win the NL Cy Young last season with the Giants team he had around him (referencing the fact that they gave the award to a pitcher on a crummy team), Greinke should have no problem winning the award this season on the Royals. He has been flat out amazing.
No question Zack is the guy who deserves the Cy Young.
But I’d look out for a guy like Mariano Rivera actually winning it. This is the kind of year where the dissonance between contenders throws voters for a loop:
-You’ve got the guy with the most wins (Sabathia), but his ERA is out of whack with the other contenders.
-The guy with the most Ks (Verlander) trails in wins and his ERA is off.
-The dominant guy in ERA (Grenke) is too far off in wins.
So you have the traditional voter who looks at this and decides that this is the year to give the greatest reliever (having a typically awesome Rivera season) in history his due.
Certainly not saying this should happen, or even that it will, but I sure won’t be surprised…
Anyone with more hits than Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, and Mantle is a damn fine player.
1. He doesn’t have more career hits than Ruth, actually. He most likely will by next season.
2. What’s your point?
Just yesterday, Sportsnation ranked the top 5 pitchers in MLB and had Zach #4. Not too surprising that fans wasting their time voting on ESPN could be off that much but I am sure you will appreciate hearing that the Host – Skip Bayless sitting in – said that Zack was too highly rated, that he wasn’t sure that Zack had the right makeup, that Zack didn’t win enough despite being on the woeful Royals and (finally) that Zack hadn’t showed enough yet – that he would need to “win” big games on a big stage before he’d rate him that highly.
Talk about damning someone with faint praise!
FUN post, Joe. Loved looking through those seasons!
Re: Greinke–
A bunch of friends and I were posting things on a facebook thread during the MNF game…when the Bills went up 11, I posted:
TOUCHDOWN!!! I hate being a Bills fan..I’m sitting here saying “please don’t find a way to lose…please don’t find a way to lose”) GO BILLS!!!
12 minutes later, I posted:
i’m sucking my thumb and my wife is stroking my hair and saying “shhhh…it’ll be okay.”
2 minutes later, I posted:
OH MY GOD it’s NOT okay… aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh
and 14 minutes later:
I…HATE…FOOTBALL.
The point is that even if the Bills were up, say, 21 pts with a minute left in the Super Bowl, I would be sure that somehow things would go terribly wrong. (This is the exact same attitude that I had about the Red Sox, which is why #17 on my list of life goals is “someday give Dave Roberts a big weepy bear-hug.”)
So here’s my ultimate “sports pessimist” scenario:
Later this month, Greinke unintentionally drills Jeter in the head. The Yankees then collapse without him, getting swept by KC and going on a losing streak (thus “proving” Jeter’s value)…and Greinke just by chance has an off start or two to close the year (and has earned subconscious “negative” goodwill with idiot voters). The AL East ends up improbably coming down the final day, and Jeter pinch hits despite suffering from a migraine that necessitates his shooting cortisone directly into his brain, hitting a grand slam to put the Yankees up by one. The great Mariano comes in with bases loaded and no outs in the ninth and strikes out the side on 9 pitches (while breaking 6 bats in the process), giving the Yankees their first win since St. Derek of the Bronx got beaned, and the pennant. Yankees fans spontaneously erect statues of Jeter and Rivera out of beer cans in the parking lot.
End result: Greinke loses an incredibly tight Cy vote to Mo, and Jeter wins MVP going away.
There’s 0% chance of that happending…right?!?!
You pull for teams WAY up on the psychologically damaging scale…so writing “He’s going to win the Cy Young”–I’m impressed. Huevos, mi amigo. But I’m a little scared for ya.
I think Greinke will run away with it if he finishes out the year strong. If he loses a couple of games, while Verlander gets 19 or 20 wins and brings his ERA under 3.00, then I think it could go either way. But as things stand, Greinke is just too dominant in too many categories and his win total is only three off the lead. It’d be something else if someone was leading with 20 wins or a bunch of guys had 20 wins and Greinke was sitting at 14 but the win totals have been depressed so I doubt that that’s going to be a dominant factor.
At this moment the CY choice is very clear. However, things can still change with a couple starts left for the main contenders. If Greinke is shelled in his last couple starts (not likely, but possible) and ends at 14-10 with a little higher ERA than now his season looks different. Still better than the others but not as incredibly better. Now, say that happens and one of the main contenders wins their last two or three while lowering the ERA. All of a sudden, we have a much tighter race.
Antidepressants as PEDs is the most absurd argument I’ve ever heard. Greinke is pitching better now that he’s on them because HE DOESN’T HATE HIS LIFE ANYMORE.
But, since peter’s weak cop out of “hey, I don’t make the rules’ occurred, I guess cortisone shots for pitchers are also PEDs because they throw better without excruciating pain.
Another thing about Greinke but which doesn’t relate to his Cy young likelihood is that his slider might be the most dominant pitch in baseball along with Lincecum’s split-change. I have never seen a slider in the dirt get so many swings and misses. I love how he’ll throw his fastball inside to lefties for instance and establish that part of the plate and then unleash his slider to the inside looking exactly like a fastball and then have hitters flail away as it drops into the dirt. Not only can his numbers be marveled at and compared on a historical level, but his scouting reports have to be off the charts good like it was with Pedro’s arsenal, Randy Johnson’s, Clemen’s, Maddux’s sinker and so on. Greinke’s fastball and sliders have to be 80 pitches and his command a 80 too.
@47 JohnQ
Clemens also won a cy young (2 if I am not mistaken) because of W/L records when other pitchers were better. Heck I believe once he had a team mate (Mussina) who was better.
I’d be happy to see the W/L record at least diminished (if not eliminated) from CYA discussion but am really tired of seeing people say clemens was robbed once, when he was gifted twice (at least)
In fact I still think that we should set up an arbitrary measurement of W/L record based on a Zack quote – that he shouldn’t be winning if he gives up 4 runs.
So 4+ runs = L
3 runs = ND in 6/7/8IP and W? in 9 and L if 5 or less IP
2 runs = W unless given up in 5 (ND) or less than 5 IP (L)
1 run = w except less than6 IP which is ND
0 Runs in 5 IP or more = W Less than 5 = ND
That would measure consistency effectively.
Joe,
A) Complete for the modern era. Old Hoss just called me from beyond the grave to remind me to tell you he still owns the record for most strikeouts in a season at 441. So it took him 678 innings to get there. Well he didn’t get to turn the game over to the bullpen (73 starts, 73 complete games). ERA+ 205.
B) Greinke hasn’t actually done it, yet. One bad outing and his ERA+ could fall below the 200 threshold. Still a great season, but the fascination here is over round numbers. [Divide by 10 and magically we get another round number that influences people too much.] For example Maddux didn’t get 200 strikeouts in 1994/1995. Those were strike years, so he didn’t compile enough starts at his K/9 rate. Doesn’t change the fact that he was similarly valuable per start as Greinke this year (one could argue more, but you get the point).
This is my only comment on the Jeter for MVP argument:
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/derek_jeter_honored_for_having
Yeah, I guess.
But, if Greinke’s so good, how come the Royals don’t have a $200mil payrole and a GM who’s not insane?
For instance, on The Machine page, you can now buy my book, Dan Brown’s book and the Ted Kennedy book for $50.62. Really? Are a lot of people bundling those three books?
On Tuesday, Sept. 15, I received a much anticipated three-book delivery from amazon: The Machine, True Compass (Ted Kennedy’s memoir), and The Lost Symbol (Dan Brown’s latest).
Never underestimate your appeal among the baseball-liberal-symbology community. We’re out here, Joe, ooohhhh, we’re out here …
To show how impressive it is to achieve the 200-200-200, even John Q’s (#40) near miss list is full of high quality names. A high percentage of current or future HOFers.
YOUR hourly Beatles Poll/Fabs update!
Best Prediction from Beatles cast & crew member:
“The kids of AD 2000 will understand what it was all about and draw the same sense of well-being and warmth as we do today. For the magic of the Beatles is timeless and ageless.” — Derek Taylor, 1964
Lennon/McCartney now up by 10 votes.
@60: What?
re: #19 Panicstreak
Greinke’s next start is against the Red Sox, so we’ll see there.
As far as the Yankees go, it’s not Grienke’s fault he didn’t face them. Their schedule just happened to work out that way.
Greinke only started twice against the Angels. His lines in those games:
May 9th – 8.0 IP, 4 Hits, 1 ER, 5 K – Loss
Sept 5th – 8.0 IP, 8 Hits, 0 ER, 8 K – ND
He did not have three losses against the Angels. He should have had two wins.
—————–
Greinke within his own division:
15 starts, 104.1 IP, 21 ER, 1.81 ERA, 124 K
On avg. those (3) teams are hitting:
.261/.333/.419
Those teams against Greinke:
.220/.264/.325
——
Greinke outside his division:
15 starts, 106 IP, 29 ER, 2.46 ERA, 100 K
On avg. those (10) teams are hitting:
.263/.328/.419
Those teams against Greinke:
.234/.283/.345
—————–
Really odd thing I noticed while tallying up this stuff…
Greinke has faced the White Sox, Indians and Tigers five times each this year.
Guess how many times he’s started against the Twins…
Zero.
McKingford @57, Mariano Rivera has too few innings to win a Cy. He’s got 59 now, and I don’t see him going more than 65 by the end of the season. The reliever who has thrown the fewest innings and won a Cy is Eckersley in ‘92 with 80 IP (Rollie Fingers threw 78 in strike-shortened ‘81, but Eck is a better comp). I just don’t see Rivera getting much support because of this.
Just for interest’s sake though, Mike Marshall won the Cy in 1974 when he pitched 208 innings, all of them in relief. He also pitched in a major league record 106 games that season.
Mark @74:
And then Marshall’s arm fell off.
I think today’s closers are coddled with regard to their innings, but the abuse that Walter Alston subjected Mike Marshall’s arm to would cause a PETA riot were he an animal.
Preaching to the preacher here, but here’s some research detailing dumb arguments against Greinke’s Cy case and why they’re wrong: http://www.royalsreview.com/2009/9/18/1036207/dumb-arguments-against-zack
Cardinal Mike,
Good call on the Clemens Cy Young in 2001. He won that award when he really shouldn’t have mainly because of his W-L record. He didn’t win the Cy Young in 1990 & 2005 when he really should have because of W-L record of two other pitchers.
Steve Stone in 1980 was another pitcher that won the Cy Young mainly because of W-L record but really didn’t deserve to win it.
Here are some other ones off the top of my head:
Gaylord Perry in 1978.
Jack McDowell in 1993.
Tom Glavine in 1998.
Pete Vukovich in 1982.
Those bashing Peter are missing his point entirely, thus they are also missing the flaw. PEDs are generally considered as drugs used by players without a legitimate medical reason. Zack legitimately needs medication for mental health issues. Others may need medication for migraines, everyday aches and pains, adhd, fertility issues, etc.
If he defines PED as a drug that enhances performances in all instances then if a drug does not enhance performance, why take it all. I can’t hit a baseball when I have a migraine, but I can do so after a couple hours and some pills.
I’m rooting for Zach, and I think he may have a better chance than Mauer.
MVP has a strong tendency to go to a player from a playoff (or near playoff) team. (Except for the best CF not in the HOF, Mr. Dawson)
But I believe Cy Young is much more about the best pitcher. Of course they do like the pitcher to have a bunch of “wins” himself.
What about the guy who’s having a “historical”, “magical” season who is also, according to fangraphs, leading Mauer by a full win over replacement value (8.6 to 7.5)?
Last time I checked Pujols was in the National League. If you are referring to the Pasta Diver he is trailing by a full run at 6.4, with Zobrist and Longoria ahead of him.
jppj – Marco (#25) is not referring to Pujols or Jeter or Zobrist or Longoria. Read the very end of his comment again.
Bob Gibson endorsed Primatene Mist. Therefore his records don’t count.
Ichiro should be the MVP. He’s hitting .353 and he could hit 40 homers if he wanted to, but he chooses not to.
OMG — how embarrasing — egg on my face.
Have to jump in on the Beatles thing:
@Jeremy, from way up at the start of the page:
The problem with your argument against Harrison is that Van Halen and Slash are *also* musical geniuses. True fact. You can look it up.
Also:
I am rooting for Zack as much as anyone, but anybody who thinks he’s a lock (or even the favorite) to win the AL Cy Young this year needs to take a long look at the year Bartolo Colon won over Johan Santana.
Pretty similar case, really:
The fat, expensive, above-average pitcher wins 20 for a playoff team and is given the Cy Young, while the brain-hurtingly dominant pitcher in the Central leads him in essentially every category.
But the reality is Grienke’s an even tougher sell than Johan was that year:
Johan was on a decent team.
Johan had ALREADY won a CY.
Johan was, both before and after that season, universally considered a far better pitcher than Colon.
Joe, thank you for continuing to put Zack’s season in the forefront. If he does win you will deserve some credit.
You should be lauded for your faith that the BBW will do the right thing- I have no such faith, but REALLY hope I am wrong.(optimistic pessimism? Cynical Idealist?)
Whenever I try to come up with an MVP candidate other than Mauer, it is Zack.
You should (after the season) have your own awards where the voting system and # of players voted for is the same as the BBW.
So you want the AL CY Young AND the AL MVP to both come from the AL Central? Yet AL East produces 2 playoff teams. How does that work? I’ll bet if the Twins can win the division-Maur gets the MVP! Greinke gets CY Y regardless…
Here is my thought this morning: Felix Hernandez wins the Cy.
Greinke and Hernandez are the two horsemen of the apocolypse this year: Both enjoying excellent seasons pitching for cellar dweller teams. Mention one as a maybe getting snubbed in Cy Young balloting and you have to mention the other. Well, okay, but the thing is that King Felix just won his 16th game last night. If he gets 17 or 18 wins and Zack stays stuck at 14 or 15, well, I think Felix wins.
Look, the groundwork has already been laid. Everyone writes about how good these guys are, and how unfair it will be if they both get snubbed in the Cy balloting just because their teams suck, and yadda yadda yadda. Great. So by picking Hernandez the voters get a guy with more than 15 wins…plus they get to recognize a pitcher who everyone has been hyping for four years as the next great thing…plus they get to nod at all the internet peoples who jump up and down about win totals skewing vote tallies.
I’m late to the Beatles party here, but a few fun facts:
1. The L/M songwriting team was a team in name only. Though there were some exceptions (A Day in the Life, notably), the vast majority of their songs were written by Lennon or McCartney, not both.
2. L&M were the alpha dogs in the Beatles. This meant they could veto George songs. While My Guitar Gently Weeps only made it because Harrison got Eric Clapton to play on it. Lots of his songs did not make it, and for a full picture of his genius, you really need to listen to All Things Must Pass which consists almost entirely of songs Lennon & McCartney wouldn’t put on Beatles records and is also, amazingly brilliant.
Regarding Peter Gammons’ remark about Greinke not pitching against certain clubs this season, shouldn’t Sabathia be punished as well for not pitching against the best team in the American League?
Brent @ 75: don’t be a Gammons. Look up the numbers, don’t make up the numbers. Mike Marshall went on to pitch back to back seasons with a high CYA finish, ERA of 2.65 or less, and 99 and 142 IP, in 1978-79. He also made an AS team the year after he pitched 200 innings. His arm fell off in 1980, at the age of 37.
What steams me is that Mike Marshall was one of the smartest pitchers ever. He has a doctorate in kinesiology. He wants to help pitchers refine their pitching motion for less strain, and his career is a shining example of competence at pitching all the time without breaking down much. And yet nobody in baseball is willing to hire him, or send him somebody like Hong Chi Kuo, a guy with great stuff who has trouble staying healthy, to see if maybe Iron Mike can find a way to keep the arm sound.
Interesting to note that Marshall threw 115 or more innings four times in his career (all in relief), leading his league in games pitched each time, and was high in the CYA all four times.
One other point about fun with numbers. Part of why the 1960s are perhaps underrepresented in the 200/200/200 list is because of the nature of ERA+.
When the league as a whole is pitching better because of a confluence of events, it makes it harder to achieve a 200 ERA+ because the average gets so much better. And in the 1960s, lots of things were making it a pitcher’s era.
The strike zone was larger. Mounds were higher. And perhaps most importantly, new larger stadiums were in vogue. The Astrodome was such a pitcher’s park that it probably cost Jose Cruz a well deserved shot at the HOF. Ebbet’s Field had morphed into Dodger Stadium. Shea Stadium was a mild pitcher’s park.
Go to b-ref and sort NL on ERA. The first three seasons after WWII to come up were all in the 1960s. 1968 is surrounded by dead ball years, the only year after 1920 with a NL ERA under 3.00. All told, 5 seasons with those pitching rules are the best modern pitching seasons. The AL yields similar results.
The thing is, when you improve the average, it’s harder than ever to achieve an ERA+ of 200. The highest league ERA of the 1960s was 4.03, and the numbers are consistent between the NL and the AL, which is lower than the lowest league ERA Pedro Martinez ever pitched in.
I’m not saying that Pedro wasn’t great. I’m just saying that mathematically, everything is done in a context, and Pedro’s came at a time when it was easier to achieve 200+ ERA+ in some part because the bar was set so low by the leagues in which he pitched.
You could argue (with some validity) that this meant Pedro was facing tougher opposition overall, which is why he deserves his high ERA+. I’m in no way trying to demean Pedro, or for that matter Greinke. But what this really says (to me) is that Gibson’s achievement (for a single season) was worth more. And you could probably argue that Big Train and Pete and Christy had to work even harder to get an ERA+ of 200 back in their times of dead balls.
[...] tonight we face obvious Cy Young favorite Zach Greinke. Having to face Greinke instead of some of the Royals other starters is like having the chamber [...]
[...] That argument shouldn’t need to be made anymore. It’s so painfully obvious to people who know better, and if BBWAA voters give the award to someone else, it’s a damnation of their relevance, not [...]
[...] season has been well documented and I think last nights 6 inning, 2 hits, 0 runs performance against the Red Sox probably clinched [...]
[...] but I’ll leave that to more qualified people, namely, Joe Posnanski. Posnanski has posted numerous arguments for Greinke for Cy, all of which I find extremely compelling. For anyone who still [...]
“Baseball is 90% mental — the other half is physical.” Yogi
If baseball is such a mental game as many people would like to profess then why is it so difficult for people to grasp the concept that taking anti-depressants is a PED. We all glorify these guys for their mental “toughness” all the time and we talk about how important this is to be a great ballplayer. How is a persons mental makeup different from the physical makeup theyve inherited. Are we all so PC these days that we dont believe in mentally weak individuals anymore? If one man is unable to handle the extreme pressure of the league without drugs what is so different vs a guy whos natural strength doesnt add up. If he takes roids or HGH hes a cheater and is demonized. Both are changing their “natural” attributes to enhance how they perform. Just wanted to throw that out there. The good drug/ bad drug debate in this country is comical.