The Intentional Walk Revisited
Posted: September 5th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 42 Comments »
I have never hidden my utter disdain for the intentional walk. But I have to admit that tonight, I actually caught an intentional walk I could not argue with. It happened in the bottom of the 11th inning of the Royals-Angels game. At the time, there were two outs. The Angels led 2-1. But Kansas City had David DeJesus on second base. And Billy Butler was coming to the plate.
Before I get into the specifics of the walk, I do need to offer a few lines here for Zack Greinke. You know he threw eight innings and gave up one unearned run tonight — dropped his ERA to 2.22. I don’t believe that I really need to pimp him for Cy Young anymore because there’s no other choice. Yes, I’ve heard people lately push Mariano Rivera, and hey, I LOVE Mariano Rivera. And he’s having a typically wonderful Mariano Rivera year. And in another season, a typically wonderful Mariano Rivera year would certainly make him a viable Cy Young candidate. But, the guy is throwing 150 fewer innings than Greinke, who now leads the American League in ERA, ERA+, complete games, shutouts, WHIP, hits per nine, homers per nine, and he’s second in strikeouts-to-walk and strikeouts.
I’m going to repeat that: Greinke now leads the American League in ERA, ERA+, complete games, shutouts, WHIP, hits per nine, homers per nine and is second in strikeouts-to-walk and strikeouts. This is a season for the ages.
The other popular Cy candidates candidates — C.C. for his victories, Verlander for his strikeouts and ability to throw 100 mph in the eighth inning — have an ERA a full run higher than Zack. Seems to me, the only guy in the American League who has pitched anything close to Greinke is Felix Hernandez, a hard-luck pitcher himself. But Greinke is better.
Greinke is the best there is right now. And the sad fact that he is having this remarkable season for a Kansas City Royals team bound and determined to lose 100 games doesn’t change that. The Cy Young doesn’t have that goofy “most valuable” tag that muddies everything and allows people to politicize the award. No, it goes to the best pitcher in the league. I’m open to arguments, I really am. And there are four weeks left in the season and a lot can happen in four weeks. But right now, I don’t see anyone else with a legit Cy Young argument.
OK, back to the game. Tying run on second, two outs, Billy Butler comes to the plate. The Angels have their closer, Brian Fuentes on the mound. Fuentes is a lefty, and as such righties hit him better than lefties do. This year, righties are hitting about 60 points better and slugging more than 200 points better. Over his career, it’s much more of a normal split difference, but still as it goes for left-handed pitchers, righties hit him better and slug a bit better.
Billy Butler, meanwhile, scorches lefties. History suggests that will normalize over time, but over his short career he has liked hitting against left-handed pitching. He’s hitting almost 70 points better and slugging almost 200 points better against lefties.
Meanwhile … the Royals had Mike Jacobs on deck.
And if you know one thing about Mike Jacobs it is probably this: He does not hit lefties. Ever.
So, what would Angels manager Mike Scioscia do? On the one hand, a walk would put the winning run on base, which is supposedly one of those baseball book no-nos. On the other hand, that runner would be Billy Butler who would need a ball to fall into a manhole somewhere to score from first on a non-home run.
On the one hand, the Royals would not have to send Jacobs to the plate to face his inevitable lefty doom. They had third-string catcher John Buck on the bench. And they might have Alberto Callaspo on the bench. Nobody knew for sure. Callaspo, a switch hitter who is hitting .368 against lefties, fouled a ball off his foot on Friday and was not in the lineup, but I don’t think anyone knew if he was available to pinch-hit. On the other hand, Trey Hillman was managing the Royals and so that had to play into the thinking.
Scioscia made the move. He walked Butler. And Trey Hillman, apparently ready for the game to end, sent Jacobs to the plate with Springsteen’s “Dead Man Walking” playing behind him. I cannot stress how hopeless it was to send Jacobs to the plate here. Mike Jacobs is a career .226/.272/.382 hitter against lefties. Jacobs has now gotten MORE THAN 100 PLATE APPEARANCES against lefties this season, and he is hitting .193/.258/.270.
To give you an idea how bad that is, I’ll throw three other numbers up there: .251/.273/.328. You will ask: “What are those numbers?” I will answer: “That’s what Tony Pena Jr. hit against lefties in his career.”
It took Jacobs all of one pitch to ground to first base to end the game.
So, let me say that while I am definitely an officer in the “I hate the intentional walk” fan club, I must admit … there are exceptions.
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As soon as Yabuta allowed his first baserunner, it was obvious it was over.
The Royals could really do their ace a favor and start scoring runs anytime now…
You know, as long as Zack Greinke pitches well down the stretch, Mariano’s chances of winning the Cy is pretty much nil. It seems the only way relievers can win the Cy Young is if none of the starters have sensational seasons. The only chance Mariano has is if Zack or Felix really stinks it out the rest of the year.
I’m guessing this IBB situation is more like the exception than the norm. It’ll work wonders sometimes, but more often than not it’s still a bad strategic decision.
Anyways, I remember that Mariano column. It was great, but the link doesn’t work because somehow the URL got posted twice.
“On the other hand, Trey Hillman was managing the Royals and so that had to play into the thinking.”
Too funny. I had a wtf moment when Scioscia decided to put the go-ahead run via intentional walk too, but such a move, when employed against the Royals, is apparently managerial genius.
As for Zack, poor guy. The Royals have now scored 3 runs or fewer 18 times out of his 28 starts. Comparable numbers for Verlander (12), Felix (10), Doc (10), and CC (7). Number of times of allowing 2
or fewer ER: Greinke (20), Hernandez (18), Verlander (15), Halladay (14), Sabathia (14).
Great, great line.Wish I’d thought of it:
“…that runner would be Billy Butler who would need a ball to fall into a manhole somewhere to score from first on a non-home run.”
I don’t know, Joe. Trey had a real good feeling about Mike in that spot.
Only this grand game of baseball could could conjure up such stark dissonance: Every single time Zack Greinke pitches, you get goose bumps – you metamorphise into a wide-eyed child – staring at the screen, rapt in wonder and imagination. Every other aspect of the Royals’ performance forces you to explain to your loved ones why your wrists are bleeding.
If you think his batting situation is hopeless, you should watch Greg Norton as the Braves continuously send him out to pinch hit every night. He’s hitting about .150 in 70 at-bats, he can’t run (the Braves pinch run for him if he somehow manages to get on base) he can’t field anywhere, he has no power, gap or home run or otherwise. But they keep sending him up there to get his ass kicked over and over and over. Tonight, he managed a walk when given the opportunity to make the last out of the game for the Braves, and that’s the best he could have done.
mariano’s page at baseball-reference.com is an orgy for the eyes. but zack is a no-brainer. trey is too, but in a different sense.
Grienke lacks the one all-important pitching ability that could bring home the Cy Young award: inspiring your teammates to score runs. He should learn how to do that. Right now he sucks at it.
Thank the sweet Lord GMDM is bringing Hillman back. His decisions become more and more baffling and less and less defensible with every passing day. Just when you think the Royals have hit a new low, a Hillman head-scratcher redefines “new low.”
Much the same way I didn’t mind Tony G going to Atlanta. I almost wish Zack would have been traded to a contender so we could see him get his due and see him shine. It’ll never happen as long as David Glass owns my beloved Royals.
I wouldn’t take the Greinke for Cy Young for granted at all. Even if he does pitch lights out for the rest of the year. It is still entirely feasible that he could have an exceptional September and still end the year with 15 wins. These are the Royals we’re talking about. And how many Cy Young award winners were starting pitchers and finished the year with 15 wins? As much as Royals fans might want to believe that Zack’s WHIP and ERA+ will bring people to their senses, I think you need to take a step back for a second and give this further thought. Mariano Rivera – who is considered by just about everybody to be as classy of a player around – and that NY media??? Verlander and his wins and blistering stuff??? If Zack finished 3rd in this race, I wouldn’t be surprised.
As for Trey, another great managerial job. As Zack came out to pitch the 8th, I immediately thought to myself, this is the inning where things will unravel. He’d thrown over 100 pitches, although he hadn’t given up a run he wasn’t his normal dominant self. He had to work in most innings. The Angels were sending the top of the line-up to the plate. This was it. Of course, we do have an excellent closer in the pen, but it is blasphemy to consider him for more than 3 outs (which he later recorded in the 9th – 2ks in the inning – sigh). I know the Royals are playing meaningless games right now, but if you can find meaning in any Royals game, it has to be a Greinke start, right? We couldn’t stretch Soria out for 2 innings for Zack after he battled to give you 7 shutout and is probably a few Ws away from a Cy? Soria threw 2 scoreless innings just 4 days ago to lock up a win for Kyle Davies (and hadn’t pitched since). You can’t pull that trick to help Zack win a Cy? Really? Are you just trying to piss off the only exceptional player you have? If I was Greinke, I’d go home every night just praying that the Royals would trade me.
Of course, the bottom of the 8th was vintage KC. Zack had just given up his run that tied the game up (125 pitches tonight but we can’t get 2 innings out of Soria…sigh). Yuni gets a leadoff single (Yuni!) so Trey sends the great Josh Anderson to bunt him over (great pick-up!). Josh bunts right to Lackey who throws out Yuni at second. Two pitches later, Josh tries to steal on a 79mph curveball. He’s thrown out. DeJesus then grounded out softly to Lackey and the Royals had locked up their 5th game this year in which Greinke gave up 1 run or less and did not come away with a victory.
These are your 2009 Royals.
Shockingly (until you remember these are the Royals), it doesn’t even look like we’ll win the Bryce Harper sweepstakes. Even when it comes to being terrible, the Royals don’t even quite do that right…
Here’s a logical argument for you — Cy Young wasn’t the best pitcher in baseball history (even during his time), but he was the winningest pitcher. Therefore, shouldn’t the Cy Young award go to a pitcher with the most wins or very close to the most wins?
A best pitcher award should be named something like… the Ed Walsh, Walter Johnson, or Lefty Grove award. This is the award for Zack Greinke in 2009.
By the way, how many seasons have had a pitcher with an ERA under 2.25 but the pitcher didn’t even win 15 games? Zack could join that group this year..
Somehow the Mets have managed to intentionally walk Augie Ojeda (career 66 OPS+) not once but twice this year and Pittsburgh IBB’ed him once this year.
I don’t know if anyone has posted this yet (you get too many comments for me to pore over all of ‘em) but…
As far as your pitching staff that throws 85 mph or slower, it might at least work on your boy Albert Pujos.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4448260&name=olney_buster
2/3 down the page or so.
#11 “Royals Fan” is thinking just as I am. Their are just too many stupid voters for the Cy Young Award that will immediately check on Greinke’s win total and determine that somehow Zack is not worthy of such a lofty award. (If it is so lofty, then why are all of these brain-dead idiots allowed a vote?) I would not be at all shocked if Mo Riviera wins the AL Cy easily. And yes, Verlander could be in the mix above Zack too. SAD…
“By the way, how many seasons have had a pitcher with an ERA under 2.25 but the pitcher didn’t even win 15 games? Zack could join that group this year..”
Questions like that made me wish I still had a subscription with Baseball Reference’s play index. I did a quick search and ended up with 121 results, but only one was visible: Roger Clemens’s 2005 season. (1.87 ERA, 13-8 record)
So many questions. Do the Royals have any September callups who bat right-handed? Should Greinke bat when he pitches and have the Royals forgo the DH? Did that guy in the minors ever get his glasses with the new prescription?
# 16
Starting pitchers, min. 162 innings,in the AL, since 1973 (DH era), there has been 1: Pedro Martinez 2003- 14 wins 2.22 ERA.
If you expand it to 15 wins and a 2.50 ERA, you can come up with 6 more. (including 1992 Kevin Appier and 15-13(!) Jon Matlack, who had the 2nd best ERA at 2.27.
None of the 7 won the award. Steve Mccatty finished 2nd, but he won his 14 in strike shortened 1981, but still threw 185 innings because Billy Martin let him average over 8.1 innings per game.
Pedro finished 3rd, but he is Pedro. (and played for big market Boston)
Smallest # of wins by an AL Cy Young winning starter in a full season:18
Zack deserves it but I am prepared to be dissappointed.
Joe,
I’ve been thinking about this since your last Zach Greinke post: you can make the case for Greinke as Cy Young Award winner by just using wins and losses. To wit, he’s 13-8. He’s started 28 games for the Kansas City Royals, and can only be tagged with 8 losses. That’s amazing all by itself. Also, at 13-8 his winning percentage is .619. That’s better than any team except the Yankees. A team with that winning percentage wins 100 games. In other words, with Zach Greinke on the mound, and you somehow knew he would figure in the decision, the Kansas City Royals are a 100 win baseball team. I think he can have his award now.
Joe: You had me at “Mike Jacobs does not hit.” I really didn’t think you needed to add the qualifier “lefties” there. Mike Jacobs does not hit lefties, he does not hit righties. He does not hit at home, he does not hit on the road. He does hit in the rain, he does not hit on a train.
Nathan: I love this! When Zach gets a decision, any decision, the Royals are a 100 win team. When ANY other Royal gets a decision, any decision, the Royals are a 108 loss team! Great stuff.
But in the end Zach will win 15-16 games and be the best pitcher in the AL. The Royals will lose 103 games, and Verlander (I think, but maybe Sabathia) will win the Cy Young.
If Greinke were to win the Cy Young with the lowest number of wins in the history of the award (excluding relievers) it would be great for the Royals, great for Greinke, great for tired, frustrated Royals fans, and, most importantly, it would be great for the award itself. It could signal the dawn of the BBWAA finally deciding that maybe, just maybe, won-loss record isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. They might actually decide that it’s high time the award for best pitcher went to (gasp) the best pitcher.
(Or it could be a fluke year where no one else won 20 games or did much else to really earn the award. But hey, I’m trying to be positive here.)
One more deep breath…okay.
I have to take issue with blogger Nathan when he claims that the Royals are a 100-win team if Greinke could pitch on a daily basis. Everyone around here seems to love statistics, so I’ll take a moment to dwell on some damned simple ones. The Royals are now 13-15 when Greinke takes the mound. You read that correctly. When Greinke does not take home the decision with a win, the Royals do not win. While Greinke has been remarkable, if he pitched every single day for the gutter trolls we happen to call our Kansas City Royals, their projected record would be a nearly respectable 75-87. (I rounded up the win total, being the eternal optomist)
Greinke’s performance this year has been one in which he has single-handedly prevented the Royals from occupying last place in the AL in batting average, fielding average, and ERA. The ERA for the Royals without Greinke: 5.31, by far worst in the league. As far as fielding? Just take a moment, and ask yourself how any “pitcher” the Royals have thrown on the mound has performed in Greinke’s absense. They would certainly be alone in last place in even the most basic of fielding analyses.
The guy has personally kept the Royals out of the “Worst team of all time” argument, only due to the ridiculously high level at which he has performed this season. And they’re still a below .500 team when he takes the mound…so sad…
Let’s throw this guy a bat, and get him fitted for an infielder’s glove. Give me a choice between Bettencourt actually paying attention during a game, and Greinke blindfolded with a glove on his right hand and high on LSD, and I’ll take my chances with ZG. If he ever did actually manage to field the ball in this state, I’m convinced he would still have more sense and acumen than Bettencourt, (or Pena, or etc.) to get the ball moving in the general direction in which a play may be made. I already know he can swing the bat. The above scenario is a bit absurd, but I’d probably buy more tickets…worked occasionally for Vida.
Slade,
I specifically didn’t write that the Royals are a 100 win team when Greinke is pitching. I wrote that they’re a 100 win team on days that he gets a decision (and that team is the Royals of Kansas City). My point being that wins/losses are flawed, but even by that standard he deserves the award. If writers are going to treat the stat with undeserved reverence then there’s no reason to bring in games that the pitcher is not held accountable for according to that same stat.
Royals Fan
Since 1980 the MVP has gone to NY players 3 times, Mattingly once and A-Rod twice. Their favorite, Jeter, has never won although strong arguments could be made for him in 2 seasons. In fact, in his best year, 1999, playing on a division winner and one year after starring on one of the greatest teams in baseball history, Jeter came in 6th in the voting while I-Rod of Texas won it. (Two Texas, two Cleveland and a Boston player outpolled him.)
In that same period, the Cy Young has gone to just two NY pitchers, Gooden and Clemens. Although I don’t think Clemens deserved it, I would argue that he won it more because of the 20-3 record and his name and story (at that point) than the fact he was on the Yankees.
The notion that NY media has some sway over the awards is a myth.
Joe, in your quest for a new, simple stat, how about a player’s RBI %? If this is already an advanced stat, forgive my ignorance.
In a simple way, it could be:
(# of RBIs – home runs) / (total # of men on base when player comes to bat)
I never quite understood why the typical stats use the number of RBIs, but the batting average (and not the number of hits).
@ Bob R –
No NY bias in the awards huh? Tell that to anyone who was alive during the 1985 season. Don Mattingly over George Brett is pretty impossible to explain otherwise.
@Gabriel
That wasn’t NY bias. That was RBI bias. (RbIas..?) 145 to 112. Simple as that.
I’m going to be catching the Royals at the White Sox on Sept. 20. I sure hope that turns out to be Greinke’s turn in the rotation.
What is it about Saturday night games at home that causes Trey to lose intrest in winning, even with a big paying crowd in attendence. One night he leaves Jacobs on the bench when he has a chance, the next he lets him bat when he does not.
I couldn’t believe the bunt call after Yuni actually got on base with Josh Anderson coming up in the bottom of the ninth. There was absolutely no reason at all for Brayan Pena to not be pinch hitting there. Also, with Jose Guillen going out for the season, I think divine forces are trying to force KC to call up Kila Ka’aihue, even though he should have been up way earlier. FREE KILA!
The fact that Tony Pena Jr out-slugs Mike Jacobs by over 50 points… in any situation… just makes me want to curl up in a ball and cry.
From 1900-2008, there was only one pitcher with 200+IP, 220+SO, .620+ W-L% and 15 or less wins: Mickey Lolich in 1965. Greinke has a decent chance to join him, as does Tim Lincecum.
Lincecum seems to have better competition for the award in the NL, but they could both end up with incredible numbers and lose due to lack of wins.
I’m going to use your talking about Mariano Rivera as a forum to ask a closer question. How often do you thing ANYBODY would be able to close a game. I mean anybody. you or me or whomever. they’d have to hit into outs. the home run derby doesnt go on forever. now, for the sake of making this conversation easier, what about a position player like nick green or tony pena?
anyway this is what ive been thinking watching brad lidge this year.
KC needs a real power hitting corner infielder. I’d go after Nick Johnson or Adam LaRoche.
Then, I’d go after Figgins. It’d probably take one more signing for an outfielder as well. I’d make a sincere effort to bring Dye or Holliday to the team.
@32 Even Zack – who leads by nearly insurmountable numbers – doesn’t have the award sewn up as Joe notes.
Lincecum even less so as he actually has competition.
Apologies – Non-Sequitur alert… But I too, find this ‘unbelievable’.
“Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig did it five times in 1927, their most famous year together. Gehrig and Joe DiMaggio did it five times in 1936, their first year together. Gary Sheffield and Alex Rodriguez matched the total in 2005. Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris, during their famous 1961 campaign, did it four times.
But now Teixeira and Damon have that record (6), as the spring training decision to move Damon from leadoff to No. 2 has had unexpected results. He has 21 homers, nearing a career high. Teixeira has 29 in the No. 3 spot.
“Johnny just told me we had that record,” Teixeira said. “It’s unbelievable.”
Since the dreaded New York media bias gave the MVP to Don Mattingly (laughing maniacally all the way), the Yankees have received as many MVP/Cy Young awards as the Kansas City Royals. The Yankees have been given as many awards as the White Sox. The Yankees have fewer awards than the Twins, fewer than the Rangers, fewer than the Blue Jays. The Oakland A’s won five more awards in this period than the Yankees did. A New York Met was most recently given an award in 1985.
Anyone who still believes in a cruel undeclared New York City conspiracy should write a letter telling The New York Voting Bias what toys you want it to bring you for Christmas.
For some reason, the Cy Young always favors wins way, WAY too much. Hopefully the rest of Zack’s stats will change their minds. He should win the Cy.
I don’t understand how DM can keep defending Hillman. These moves are becoming more and more baffling. It’s like he refuses to look at ANY statistics whatsoever. He continues to play Jacobs like he is a 40 HR guy.
If my calculation is correct, in Zack’s last four no-decisions, he has an ERA of 0.96.
The Royals have scored 15 runs in his 8 losses, and 16 in his 7 no-decisions. His last two no-decisions came in games that ended 1-0 and 2-1 (11 innings). In his no-decisions, he has pitched 48.1 innings and allowed 11 earned runs (2.05 ERA). In those seven games, the bullpen allowed 20 runs in 17 innings.
Zack has won three times when the Royals scored 2 runs, and three times when the Royals scored 3 runs.
I know it misses the ERA cutoff, but I’m always impressed by Nolan Ryan’s league-best 2.76 ERA and an 8-16 record for the Astros. (Wasn’t that ‘86?)
Grienke is stupid good right now. Haven’t seen anything like this since Gooden’s first few seasons, and he had the benefit of pitching on some great contending teams.
So Hillman is giving Zack the day off on Thursday because he threw 125 pitches in his last start. But he couldn’t do that for Banny or Meche BEFORE their bodies gave out? Or should I be thankful that Trey “learned” from those experiences before he found a way to destroy Greinke.
Or, maybe I’m just pissed because I am planning to go see my Tigers on Thursday at the K, and I wanted to see (in person) how the Royals would find a way to screw up Zack’s next brilliant pitching performance.
I didn’t get to see the game, so I’m curious: what did “anti-stat” Ryan LeFebvre have to say about the decision to leave Jacobs in?
This story about Mike Jacobs and the intentional walk to Butler is hilarious. It really is. This is why it is enjoyable to watch horrendous teams managed by incompetent boobs. The trick is to pay attention. Most fans walk away from a team like the Royals in disgust. But if you actually pay attention, the comedy payoff is immense.