Ryan’s Hope
Posted: September 5th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball, Media | 36 Comments »
I have mentioned here that Royals announcer Ryan Lefebvre and I are friends. And we are. But we don’t see baseball in the same way. Ryan is distrustful — even disdainful — of “advanced statistics.” And to Ryan, even seemingly basic things like on-base percentage would qualify as an advanced statistic. He is of the belief that you judge baseball by what you see while throwing in a sprinkle of the familiar stats — wins, batting average, errors and sacrifice hits.* I’m not saying that’s wrong. Well, actually, yeah, I think it’s wrong.
*This is not completely true. Ryan does like more specific stats like batting average with runners in scoring position or match-up stats between a pitcher and hitter. He happens to like “advanced stats” that I don’t.
Anyway, Ryan is a great guy, and I’ve been working on him to take a closer look at the advanced stats for years, and he’s been working on me to quit putting so much stock in those stats for years and it really has been a stalemate. He hasn’t changed much. I haven’t changed much. And so it goes.
But I thought I had him Friday night. I really did. He was talking about Angels’ outfielder Bobby Abreu, and how he’s having a really good year. And then he said — I’m paraphrasing here — “He’s not having a great average year. And he’s not having a great year with singles or doubles or triples or homers. But he’s having a great year when it comes to one statistic, the most important statistic of all.”
Eureka! I had finally gotten through. He was going to bring up how Abreu has a .393 on-base percentage, second-best on the Angels, one of the best in the league. Yes! I could not believe it. My guy Ryan talking on-base percentage! Finally after all these years, I had gotten through to him at least on this one basic thing, that no individual measurement is more important than on-base percentage, nothing at the plate is more significant than an ability to not make outs, nothing …
Ryan said: “But he’s having a great year when it comes to one statistic, the most important statistic of all. RBIs!”
Sigh.
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There are some fights not worth fighting. Save your energy for more worthy battles.
I wish he would’ve called any statistic the most important of all, save RBIs. I love Ryan, but wow.
Ryan calls a good game, with a perfect balance of faith and cynicism. He’s sometimes hilarious, as well, particularly bantering with Frank White.
Fans both hardcore and casual can get advanced stats everywhere they turn. Try reading a blog or write-up without them, these days.
I love the combination of Lefebvre and White. What you miss in stats, you gain in solid commentary and a break down of all the crucial nuances from White. Who knows the game like that guy, anyway?
I live up in Maine and for the first time, I can select the KC color guys for each Royals game. On the odd occasion when I have to listen to someone else – please God, spare me from the Hawk in Chicago – the experience is diminished.
Don’t get Ryan hooked on stats, I implore you. If we want them, we sure as hell know where to find ‘em.
I’m so sick of Ryan, I used to like him, and I’m sure he’s still better than the crap that other teams have, but every game he trots out the same tired crap. My favorite is when Ryan and Frank decide to get angry because the batter didn’t “move the runner” by hitting the ball behind them or by bunting them over. I understand what they want done, I just don’t believe in wasting the out to do it. The Royals are just as capable as wasting a man on 2nd with 0 outs as they are on 3rd with 1 out. Or how about the University of Minnesota? Or how about Tony Pena Jr is the best player in the world! I don’t find it hard to believe at all that Ryan doesn’t believe in advanced stats. Kind of hard to reconcile giving up outs and sacrifices with OBP, or his irrational love for TPJ with him being the worst player in MLB (thank god that debacle is finally over).
@#1 – I disagree. Even though we all know that Ryan will probably never come around, by all accounts he’s a good man (and thorough). He’s worth the fight.
Don’t give up on him Joe.
A drinking game based around Ryan-
http://www.royalsreview.com/2008/8/16/594880/ryan-lefebvre-drinking-gam
I actually like his banter with Frank. Sometimes he comes back around too often. I could care less about the University of Minnesota.
#5 -
+1 for Big Lebowski reference.
The only statistic that matters is runs. Getting a walk only gets you to first base and only moves players over one base, if that.
The real stat (and I’m sure there is a name for this, but I use runs created) is (runs + rbi) – HR.
i am just waiting to see who pounces first.
I’m going to say it again. The mute button is your friend. Or even low volume, just the hum of noise. This is a sport that puts Joe Buck and Chip Caray on its national broadcasts.
Hands down, Ryan is the best, on TV or radio.
I like Ryan a lot, particularly with Frank White rather than Split, but this sort of thing does get old after a while. I mean, the ability to not make outs seems like such an obviously valuable skill that I sometimes wonder how it can be so overlooked or misunderstood. Is it the name? Instead of OBP, can we just call it something more precise that also has a cool acronym? Like OAR (outs avoided rate) or TAO (times avoiding outs) DUO (Didn’t Use Out)?
Those are all pretty lame. I’m sure Joe and his brilliant readers can come up with something fitting.
Place me firmly in the “Ryan needs to be on radio” camp. I disdain Bob Davis on radio. Other than the losing, that move pissed me off more than anything the Royals have done.
I guess I am completely in the minority, but I cannot stand listening to Frank White as the color guy. All he ever talks about seemingly is hitting the ball the other way. That is the drinking game that will put you unconcious in three innings – drink when Frank talks about going to opposite field.
Why is the Royals game not on the baseball package tonight? Normally, I wouldn’t care, but missing a Greinke start just isn’t right.
All baseball announcing is so steeped in establishment principles that I never really noticed Lefebvre’s disdain for modern statistics. I’ve come to expect irrational discourse from anyone directly employed by MLB. It’s the norm. I like how he calls a game, so it’s not much of an issue to me.
I think your friend has a point. I mean, if you look at some of the bad teams in baseball, doesn’t mean they don’t have good/great player(s) on them statistics wise.
I think the key is finding a combination that works.
Look at the Pirates before the deadline. Wilson and Sanchez up the middle were a great pair on a terrible team and neither of them put up astounding numbers in any category. Yet I bet if you ask around the league most managers would want/take a duo like that.
I think stats can be over-rated. Especially the more complicated ones.
LOL that’s crazy. See, that’s why…when I watch Royals game online, I turn down the sound. Really, I do.
I was wondering if Ryan was joking when he keeps talking about WHiP as a new stat.
I hope Splitt can come back next season and please keep Dave Armstrong far far away.
I haven’t lived in KC for awhile, but I’m able to catch the Royals games on mlb package. I can relate to the story that Joe posted today, as Ryan’s explanation of the critical elements of baseball frequently demonstrate an ignorance/disdain of any critical analysis – which in a way makes him the perfect play by play guy for the Royals. Recently I watched him call a game where the Royals were playing the Orioles, and he was explaining that although the Orioles were had one of the highest team BA in the AL, they were in the middle-lower tier of runs scored in the league. He then said there was a clear reason for this. As I waited for him to make reference to their OBP, he paused for suspense and then let us know that they were a bad hitting team in the clutch and that their RISP was low. It was really quite poetic, and I thought somewhere Dayton Moore, Trey Hillman, and anyone else who drinks out of the Royals kool-aid was probably nodding in approval…
@Paul White: How about “keep the inning alive percentage?”
I like Joe but, the man out smarts himself way to much. How could you not like pitcher vs hitter matchups? Some pitchers dominate certin guys, some hitters dominate certin pitchers, thats a fact.
Hey Joe but as a Phillies fan I am was a big fan of Abreu. But he is not never will be never will be, a better player than Ryan Howard. Abreu better OBP, Howard better RBI. I like both statistics though.
This seems to be an affliction peculiar to announcers. Bob Walk and Greg Brown, who announce for the Pirates, said the exact same thing about RBIs the other night on the Pirates broadcast. I sighed back in Pittsburgh.
Or is it peculiar to announcers who announce for bad teams?
I think part of this is the announcers are there to talk about the game to everybody. They must sit in meetings where producers are saying “nobody gives a crap about UZR….whatever that is.” After a while, any human being will give in to that and go with the flow.
that’s a funny story joe… but i agree with some that advanced stats aren’t really important to being a good play-by-play man, which is what i think ryan is. ryan and denny on the radio are/were great, i think split is a real pro, great doing color or play-by-play (a real shame about his voice and illness), and frank brings great player experience (with broadcasting skills sure to improve)… i just hope when denny hangs up his mic that ryan goes back to the radio, bob moves back to jayhawks-only duty (where he is fantastic), and steve stewart goes far, far away (score update! marlins lead 1-0 in second inning! same as last update three minutes ago!).
I watch most games on tv and after listening to Ryan for 3 hours, feel dumber for it. I think what may bother me more than the stats is his daily reading of the Royals talking points. For instance, his recently increased discussion of the great fielding of DeJesus in left. I just wonder how much of that crap he actually believes and how much he is saying because he is being instructed to.
I think Kyle #23 nailed it… Nearly all of these “Voices” have no interest in learning and possibly cherishing a new stat that might help to explain excellence because they know that they’ll never be able to explain that stat and its use to a majority of their listeners. So, in their minds, why bother clogging their brains with a new stat if their voice can’t speak about it to the masses.
Dusty Baker doesn’t like to clog the bases; these one-trick pony announcers can’t afford to clog their minds with an original thought.
@ #26 , see mark, Thats where I think, that not only are the “voices” wrong, but just lazy.
I have no problem explaining to my girlfriend (someone who didnt know what AVG stood for on the scoreboard the first game I took her to) what advanced statistics are, and often with just one sentence.
Theres no need to really explain the complicated math behind some of them (Like Bill James’ runs created) but to say, this number is how many more runs this player made than a replacement player, is quite simple and something that almost anyone can quickly grasp.
Also @ 21…the reason no real sabermatician places any real value in Pitcher vs. Hitter matchups is because they are so often based on ridiculously small sample sizes. I don’t think that anyone on this team has more than 40 AB’s against any one pitcher in the league. To make changes to the lineup based on those small sample sizes, far from being helpful, can be damaging, not just to your ability to win that particular game, but to the psyche of the player you took down, simply because they are 2 for 11 against that pitcher.
I think this ties neatly into your argument that people don’t think outside the box in baseball. Thus we get traditional arguments tossed at us over and over again.
Since I am old I have friends who do that to me all the time. With them I take an approach which works a little bit. On RBI’s I argue it is a team stat and provide made up examples of how 1 guy with 100 RBI had 1000 runners in scoring position while this other guy with 100 RBI only saw 200 in that position.
When I ask them which is better they of course get it correct and that allows me to argue that RBI isn’t a good stat by itself. Mostly though they still lean on RBI; they just add in numbers on base and % success – still better than the old way
I’m sure RL is a good guy, but he is a poor announcer. Your point is just one example of the many criticisms I have with him. Inane questions, absurd observations, silly sense of humor and a condescending attitude are other problems I have with him.I seem to be in the minority so maybe the issue is mine. But can’t we do better than this. I never leave the sound up, my friends tend to agree with me, but again maybe we are just a inaccurate sample. If the team is not going to be any good, can’t we at least have a presentation that offers every available level of information and insight. Don’t et me started on Goldberg…
I realize this is a blog primarily read and responded to by “sports heads”…so I think a lot of you are missing the total package that Ryan brings to the broadcast. He’s clever and witty and is trying to bring ALL fans into the game…not just you stat heads.
Also…to keep up his energy and enthusiasm the way he does for a team as dreadful as the Royals is very difficult. YOU try it…and you’ll probably end up like Denny.
Tim #27: While sample size is a must for pure science, I think a smart manager should atleast stop to consider the facts of small sample sizes. I’d argue that a hitter that has gone say 4 out of 8 with some extra bases mixed in against a specific pitcher is a good bet to be in the box against this same pitcher ASAP. Perhaps this hitter just picks up the ball well off of his delivery or maybe he’s just been lucky. Anyway, I’d roll those dice again rather than looking at my available bench.
8i think ryan’s make the game
@30 “He’s clever and witty and is trying to bring ALL fans into the game”
So what exactly makes on base percentage more complicated than batting average? “It’s batting average including walks”. Why couldn’t even the most casual fan understand that? and I think many would find it useful.
My theory is that he doesn’t want to talk about it because the Royals suck at it. I’ve noticed the Red Sox announcers, for example, mention OBP a lot, usually to praise Youklis or Bay or some other guy who’s really good at drawing walks.
I would guess that announcers probably aren’t interested in stats that could only be used to be critical of the teams and players they cover.
Joe, If the Royals ever get a player with a really high OBP try pointing that out to your friend and explaining how that really enhances the player’s value. I bet he’ll be interested.
People arguing that Ryan is an outstanding broadcaster are missing the point.
@30 – I don’t think Joe or any poster that wants a broadcaster to recognize the value of certain stats is being critical of the broadcaster’s abilities as a broadcaster. They are critical of the broadcaster’s abilities as a critical thinker.
Kudos to Ryan for being “clever and witty” and maintaining “his energy and enthusiasm the way he does for a team as dreadful as the Royals”, but he can do that, especially, the latter, then he surely can recognize and include a few valued metrics in his broadcasting. Given the dead air of baseball games, there is more than enough time to use stats to provide more illustration, explanation, and conversation.
Tim@27: I must disagree. So much of batting is confidence, and knowing you’re 3 for 4 lifetime against the pitcher really adds a jaunt to your approach when you’re pinch hitting.
I also saw the Dodgers-D-Backs game Wednesday night. Going into the game, Manny Ramirez had a .542 lifetime batting average against Dan Haren (I spotted it on a TV screen as we were walking to our seats fairly close and even with the third base bag). His first at bat, runner on third, hard single a diving Reynolds stopped from being a double down the left field line. Manny’s second at bat was a home run to right field. His last at bat against Haren, Haren walked him.
Almost everybody who plays the game talks about some match ups that favor the pitcher or the hitter. Pitchers are always doing things to disguise their grip, distract the eye, hide the rotation on the ball, all in context of using the same arm speed all the time to not tip whether it’s a faster or slower pitch. It’s obvious that some batters, based on combinations of their batting stance, height, vision, and experience, will see the balls better from some pitchers. So I’m quite happy with small sample error still being indicative of whether a batter is doing well or poorly against a pitcher.
I’d ask Lefebvre this one question: why is driving in a run more important than scoring a run? I mean, earlier this week, Juan Pierre worked a walk, stole second, stole third, and scored on an out. He did all the work, but the RBI man gets all of Lefebvre’s credit, and all he did was make an out. If Lefebrve doesn’t agree that scoring runs is at least equal in value to driving in runs, then give up on him; he’s too stubborn to learn.
If he does agree, then you can start working on on base percentage. And since you’re in Kansas City, you can start with the MVP George Brett deserved by Don Mattingly got. Not that Mattingly was as good as Brett in anything under Mattingly’s control. But Brett was stuck with Willie Wilson leading off, and Mattingly had Rickey. Rickey got on base 74 more times than Wilson and scored 59 more runs. Mattingly drove in only 33 more runs. So the RBI title was all Rickey’s doing, as was Mattingly’s MVP. You might get some traction there. Good luck.