Comments on: Watching Ball With Bill James

By: Thinking Out Of The Box (Part 1) | Cubs Notebook

Thinking Out Of The Box (Part 1) | Cubs Notebook — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 18:51:35 +0000

[...] Here’s a good example of how Pos approaches a given baseball problem: [T]he Kansas City Royals (or a number of other teams) cannot hope to compete consistently by using the same strategies as other teams. I think we all know that the Pittsburgh Pirates have not had a winning record since 1993, which I believe is a big league record. But what I didn’t know is that the Pirates are just one of several teams in the midst of a long, long, long losing period. [...]

By: serga

serga — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 07:04:27 +0000

People who have true economic security tend not to worry about appearances very much. What if you took a bright young GM and gave him a 10-year guaranteed contract? Not just guaranteed money, but guaranteed that he would stay in the job? Would that GM still fear appearing unconventional or would he be emboldened to take more risks and follow his own intuition? I think the latter is much more likely.

By: Ricketts, Shark And Peavy News: Cubs vs. Astros Preview, Wednesday 9/2, 1:20 CT | myMLB - Reds

Thu, 03 Sep 2009 05:00:20 +0000

[...] you think the Cubs are having a tough go at things, it can always be worse elswehere. Check out several other teams that have had losing years for a long time. And what Bill James has to say about why that [...]

By: Ricketts, Shark And (What Else?) Peavy News: Cubs vs. Astros Preview, Wednesday 9/2, 1:20 CT | MLB USA

Wed, 02 Sep 2009 17:57:31 +0000

[...] think the Cubs have been carrying a difficult go at things, it can regularly be worse elswehere. Check out multiform alternative teams that have had losing years for a prolonged time. And what Bill James has to contend about because that [...]

By: Larry Savage

Larry Savage — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 17:42:49 +0000

Joe,
Your article makes a point about “professionalism,” but you don’t explain what Bill James meant in using that term, or why it prevents teams from winning.

By: Richard Aronson

Richard Aronson — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 20:15:45 +0000

In response to the idea that maybe the Royals should trade all their fastball guys in the minors and get good at gauging slower pitchers, I was in an email conversation about knuckleball pitchers that could be pertinent. With the recent acquisition of Jon Garland, I *assume* that Charlie Haeger, the National League’s only knuckler, will be sent back down to the minors.

Now he has pitched decently, not great. Three starts, 1-1 record could easily have been as good as 3-0 or as bad as 1-2. But in the day after those starts, the Dodgers gave up 3, 3, and 2 runs. One was an extra inning victory. I’m (lazy) assuming all the runs were earned. So the team ERA the next day is well under 3, a fine thing, especially since one of those games came against the Cardinals. And the bullpen ERA of the relievers who came in AFTER Haeger left the game was 0, in 10 2/3 innings. So in the three games Haeger started, and the three games following those three games, the Dodgers gave up 3, 3, 2, 3, 0, and 4 runs. Given the extra inning, that’s a team ERA under 2.5, and six games is starting to creep towards a decent sample size.

I remember a LOT of games following knucklers. The Dodgers started Hough for a while, and faced the Niekros. And I also recall Vin Scully talking about the difficulty many hitters have the day after a knuckle ball outing.

If somebody with better access into old box scores (I guess even Wakefield might do, don’t have to be that old) were to look it up, that would be great. But I’m also thinking that if this effect is more than anecdotal, if it’s real, then the Royals should grab Haeger. Even if Haeger is only mediocre, he could really help the team the next day. And it’s certain that knucklers are an undervalued commodity in the big leagues.

By: Kid A

Kid A — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 19:04:53 +0000

So….
Just an introduction to something that can kill a day or two…

http://www.sporcle.com/games/bigred_machine.php

There’s so many baseball quizzes on there (MVP’s, CY Youngs, RoY, 500 HR club)… I’ve just lost 3 hours of my day.

By: Mark Daniel

Mark Daniel — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 15:14:00 +0000

Barack Obama @14, yes I was referring to Zito, Mulder, Hudson. I just always thought those guys didn’t get enough credit (even though they got lots of credit) for the A’s success. Those three seasons they had are simply remarkable – 3 years in a row where the lowest ERA+ of any of them was 125, and the lowest innings pitched total was 186 (and it was the only time any of them went below 200 IP). I don’t know how rare it is to have 3 great pitchers like that, all healthy, with their best three seasons all at the same time. I mean, look at the Braves with Glavine, Smoltz and Maddux, they had a tremendous amount of success for many years.
I was being facetious in saying that Moneyball was nothing more than 3 great pitchers, but I think those 3 great pitchers played a huge role in the A’s success.

By: Mike in MN

Mike in MN — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 13:25:08 +0000

My 2nd favorite blogger/columnist (Gregg Easterbrooke) on the web has been making the same point about NFL teams for years. They always punt on 4th down, even on 4th and 1 or 2. They don’t on-side kick unless they “need” to. They are so worried about not appearing to be stupid, that they don’t try anything new. Now, in the NFL, there isn’t the same economica disparity as in MLB.

So, it is even more important for a MLB team to be unconventional than it is for an NFL team.

By: KHAZAD

KHAZAD — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 07:19:35 +0000

Bill James is looked down upon by some stat geeks, but none of them would be where they are without him. He opened up the door for all of them.

I was intrigued by the stats (I still use a bastardized form of runs created/27) but what I REALLY enjoyed was the writing. Much of that writing was just asking unconventional questions- and then, unlike most who do that, trying like the dickens to answer them.

I agree that the Royals are afraid to go out on any limbs. They just handed an extension to a man who assembled nearly all the bad parts of a bad team, and is saved only by his predecessor’s players from being historically bad. Although the farm system was depleted (Due to Glass), Baird’s Royals would kick the snot out of Dayton’s. The unconventional players, other than Aviles being brought up out of necessity last year, (Disco Hayes, Kila) will be left to languish in the minors while we pay people 10 times as much to do worse.

The undervalued skill today is fielding. Walks are still undervalued monetarily, as is smart base running. (Give me a guy who moves an extra base nearly every time he can and can JUDGE when he can over a fast overpaid guy who steals 30-and gets caught 15 to 20 times.) Instead of taking advantage when he can, nobody in Baseball undervalues these skills like Dayton Moore. The extension, unless his drafts become great, is another nail in the Royal’s coffin.