Sunday Morning
Posted: August 30th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball, Media | 35 Comments »
A handful of of random thoughts before I go mow the lawn.
The Machine is No. 99 on Barnes & Noble. This is not a random thought so much as a “I cannot even BELIEVE it” thought. Maybe it’s the card tricks.
Many people have asked if The Machine will be available on Kindle. Well, not only will it be available but apparently it already is available for preorder.
I wrote my last official column for The Kansas City Star. It’s about Disco Hayes.
Here’s the thought I can’t get out of my head about the Royals: What would happen if they decided that the only way to win was to get the best defensive player at every position? Forget offense entirely. Just get eight great defensive players out there and scramble for offense any way they could. I think it could be done — hey, they’re not going to be WORSE offensively anyway.
I’ve often said that what frustrates me most about the Royals is their refusal to be unconventional in any way — and the Royals CANNOT WIN conventionally. They just can’t. It’s simple mathematics. So what if they just said: OK, you know what? We have some good pitching. We have a young DH we like. Now, we’re going to get eight great defensive players and try to win that way (or six — they could probably make things work with what they have at first base and left field). Could it work?
Well, put it this way: The Seattle Mariners have scored FEWER RUNS than the Royals, which is almost impossible to believe. But the Mariners are a great, great defensive team. And the Mariners have a winning record. I thought it was telling after Saturday’s game — when the Mariners pounded the Royals — several people in the Royals clubhouse including manager Trey Hillman griped how they “hit the ball on the screws” but couldn’t get any hits. Yeah, funny how that works.
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The Royals refusing to be unconventional… That hits the nail on the head–it’s the old definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
It’s pretty apparent to anyone with half a brain that KC can’t compete with 150 million dollar payrolls and should try something else. Apparent to everyone but the Royals, that is. Really, do they think they could get worse…
Why do you think they got Yuni? The guys got great instincts!
I’d like to see it, but (and I’m sure this part is obvious) I don’t trust the Royals front office to know what a “good” defensive player is. I figured that was established with the Betancourt trade.
[...] Joe Posnanski thinks the Royals should try an all-defense team: I’ve often said that what frustrates me most about the Royals is their refusal to be unconventional in any way — and the Royals CANNOT WIN conventionally. They just can’t. It’s simple mathematics. So what if they just said: OK, you know what? We have some good pitching. We have a young DH we like. Now, we’re going to get eight great defensive players and try to win that way (or six — they could probably make things work with what they have at first base and left field). Could it work? [...]
Who would be on this all-defense team
Smart management knows that “pitching and defense” aren’t really two separate things. It’s all about run prevention.
The Tigers got Everett to play short, and their pitching improved. The Mariners put Gutierrez and Chavez/Langerhans beside Ichiro, and suddenly guys like Washburn have great numbers. The Rays got Bartlett, the Nats got Morgan, the Rangers put Andrus at short and moved Young to third… on and on and on. Smart organizations know that you don’t just magically improve your pitching. You get guys who can catch the ball up the middle.
Conversely, teams that continue to give gloves to guys like Jacobs, Guillen, and Betancourt will continue to suffer for it.
The Royals are following in the M’s footsteps, it just happens to be the wrong M’s team.
Yuniesky Betancourt, Willie Bloomquist, Jose Guillen, Gil Meche and Miguel Olivo.
Hey, do you guys want Miguel Batisita? I guess we did take Mike Sweeney.
A friend recently pointed out that in all the years he has known me he has never heard me be so discouraged about the Royals. he’s right. The apparent lack of a clue despite all the promise has mystified me. I hear the same hurt confusion in your recent entries.
Which is why I enjoyed the article on Disco so much. You’ve always reflected the true baseball fan’s unwavering optimism and your choosing to focus on this delightful story proves it yet again. Thanks for using your considerable talent to reflect the wonder of this great game.
Yes!!! Take advantage of the ballpark and become (attempt to become) a great defensive team. Why not? I think the Dodgers were like this in the 60’s when they had Drysdale and Koufax. The running gag was a Dodger rally was Maury Wills walking, then stealing second, third, and scoring on a sacrifice.
I love the idea, always have.
What do we really have to lose? Opposing teams might tighten up a bit as well if they knew they were likely to get only 1-3 runs a game.
And I disagree that this kind of baseball is inherently boring. No, every pitch, every at bat becomes very important.
seriously, that’s a pretty good idea. which makes it immediately ineligible for consideration by K.C.’s brass. instead, they’ll probably head the other way this offseason and stock up on *allegedly* good bats who can’t field a lick, leading to a great marketing slogan:
Royals Baseball Presents:
“2010: The Year We Make Contact”
Because building a team around a stupid marketing slogan is something your fearless leaders could probably get behind. (On the plus side, at least it’s a clear “plan.” Although Nic Cage has a clear “plan” in Leaving Las Vegas, as well.)
The Mariners are indeed trying to be unconventional, in the Posnanski defensive-first sense. And at least it’s been a vast improvement over last season. A great defense by itself may not win it all, but it is elegant and interesting to watch, and it does do wonders for your pitching staff. The M’s are still a work in progress. Lopez at second is only adequate defensively, but he does add some pop. First base is only adequate, as well. Catcher, too. But assuming they can re-sign Beltre, the rest of the defense is now absolute top-drawer. Problem being, the jury is still out for a predominantly defensive club, when pitted against a full-bore mashing ballclub, like Texas, the Yankers and the Angels. It seems a good way to be modestly competitive, without actually threatening to win anything.
seasalt–you’re right, you’re probably not going to the playoffs (especially in today’s AL) with a true defense-first team.
sadly, the phrase “threatening to win anything” is so far from the Royal reality…”threatening not to suckasmuch” should be 2010’s goal. a team that (1) sucks and (2) plays like a bunch of clowns is infinitely more soul-crushing than a team that (1) sucks but (2) plays hard/well on “d” and just can’t hit a lot. and then pitchers need not fear the ball being put in play (royals are 4th in MLB in errors, and one of 5 teams to have given up at least 60 unearned runs).
and then there’s zack. (warning: long-winded anecdote ahead). in little league I was a pretty good shortstop and decent pitcher, but we had a complete stud pitcher named brian who ended up playing at a d-1 school…best natural athlete by far i’ve every played sports with. he was a “he could throw that speedball by you” kid. but aside from the two of us, our team couldn’t field AT ALL (we’d had another decent kid get hurt & another who quit). our catcher wouldn’t wear a cup and was deathly afraid of curveballs, our second baseman would do a strange two-footed backwards hop towards the outfield instead of charging grounders (half the time a grounder went through him, both his feet were actually slightly airborne…i’ve still never seen anything quite like it) and we had a kid we called “the nomad” because during practice he would wander off the field and climb trees. early on we had a practice where our coach had to stop using his pitching machine to shoot up fly balls to the outfielders after the *second* kid got hit in the face. and to top it off, we had a first baseman who couldn’t catch anything thrown hard, especially right at him (he couldn’t throw at all, so naturally he became the first baseman…it’s not a stat, but he easily lead the league in “hit by own team’s throw”). brian–easily the best player in the league, on by far the worst team–couldn’t wait for the season to end, skipped practices, and basically was miserable and let everyone know it. our coaches were actually great guys (it would have been really ugly if they were super-competitive), and i loved baseball not matter what (but there were moments that year…), but brian would have been happier sitting on the other team’s bench during games.
it makes me wonder if/how much zack is already dreaming of greener pastures. because when you feel like you need to strike everyone out (and unlike me, brian actually felt like he could…and got pissed when he didn’t), it must be kind of an angry/lonely feeling out there on the mound.
Excellent long-winded anecdote, Jay. I’m still chuckling.
Joe, the Disco article is a perfect “last” submission to the Star. I’ve been following his blog for the past several months. I really hope the Royals give him a chance this year and/or next. After all, the bullpen bar can’t get much lower, and we fans REALLY need him.
Dayton, throw us a friggin’ bone here, man. Don’t do us dirty yet again. I’m about to don sackcloth and commence with the weeping and gnashing of teeth. Throw us a friggin’ bone, man!!!
Well, to hear Zack talk today, you’d think Betancourt was a friggin ten time gold glover. I mean, I love the fact that he just threw the first one hitter in 14 years and has retaken the lead in comeplete games and shutouts in the AL even though he had neither the previous 3 months, but, I dunno, I guess even the blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then, and thats about the equalivent of half the defenders on the team.
The problem with encouraging the Royals to assemble an “all-defense” team is that you have to count on the Royals to be the ones to assemble this team.
And teams like the Royals tend to think that a player’s offense is inversely related to their defense, and thus conflate “can’t hit” with defense. The logic, of course, seems to be “well they must be good fielders because they can’t hit worth a damn!” As a result, they accumulate shortstops like Betancourt and Pena thinking that they *are* getting glove men at the expense of a bat.
Seasalt– I certainly agree that an all defense team will not get the Mariners into playoff contention, but it might just get KC in. the Ms have to beat Anaheim every year (and Texas this year). Throw them into the Central, and they are hanging really close to Detroit. Add the fact that they wouldn’t play against Anaheim as frequently, and you may just have a new AL Central contender. Not that I think the Royals are capable of this, (See McKingford @15) but the AL Central isn’t exactly a major talent pool. It could conceivably work.
Yuni had a good game today. He made every play, and for the only critical at bat of the game against Zack, with two on and two out, he made a nice play to get Wilson by a half step to end the inning.
Here’s the thing. Zack knows that Yuni is his shortstop for the next fourteen months basically regardless of what happens. And so you may as well throw him some love after he has a good game and makes some effort plays.
Greinke was so good it was almost stupid.
Nice column. And seriously, what are the 98 books higher than yours? Fellow readers, let’s see how high we can get it!!!
“he made a nice play to get Wilson by a half step to end the inning”
Sadly, he made the harder play by throwing to first instead of stepping on 2nd.
I half-expected him to throw the ball away….
I agree with McKingford @#15, asking the Royals to assemble an all-defense team is probably unwise when their general manager does not care to understand defensive metrics and bizarrely believes Yuni to be a plus defender based on scouting reports from three years ago. I notice that the Pirates, the Royals sister franchise in longtime suffering, have a +39 UZR and +10.2 ErrR this year, while the Royals have a -42 UZR and -5.5 ErrR. Gee, I wonder which of these franchises is making progress in moving forward?
Funny (ironic?) that the Mariners lost today due to a defensive miscue…I don’t think the Royals score without it.
Great column on Disco, Joe. I’m gonna miss your columns in the Star.
I thought it was interesting the Royals offered Disco an executive internship. Was that when Baird was still running things? Disco’s philosophy wouldn’t seem to fit with the current crew at Royals HQ.
Here’s “revolutionary” – why not pitch Greinke the way “Hoss” Radbourn was used?
He has enough variety in his pitches I bet he could do it. Don’t just move to the four man rotation, give everyone else 5 days of rest but only give Zack 2.
Joe,
Just for fun, I went into Strat-o-Matic and altered all of the 2008 Royals so that they were legends in the field. I took the same range, arm and e-ratings as some top defenders in the 2001 Hall of Fame set. So all of the OFs played defense like Willie Mays, 3B Brooks Robinson, SS Luis Aparicio, 2B Joe Morgan, 1B Bill Terry, C Johnny Bench, and I made all pitchers 1e1.
So if the 2008 Royals played defense at that level, I ran one season and it came back that they finished 86-76, 11 games better than their real finish. But because some of those wins reshuffled the deck in the weak AL Central, the Royals took the division by two games over the Twins.
The Royals scored 689 runs, just two off from their real total of 691, but conceded just 586 runs, 195 fewer than in real life. As a result, the Royals led the league with a 3.38 ERA, compared to 4.50 in 2008.
Of course, this was but one simulation, so I don’t know if it’s an outlier, and it’s not entirely what you were talking about since it would have been a massive undertaking to strip all other teams of their best defensive players and put the on the Royals. But it was fun nonetheless, and it at least imagined what would happen if the same sucky Royals of today could perform at a HOF defensive level across the board.
Sirk
Did that Royals minor-leaguer ever get his new glasses?
Joe – So what time did you start up your bad-boy mower this Sunday AM? Too early for the neighbors? Did we not determine earlier this year that mowing before 8-8:30am on a Sunday is terribly bad form?
Editor’s note: Waited until 9:30. I would never start that early on a Sunday morning.
I should have mentioned above how much I love the nickname of Disco Hayes, particularly when you can explain to someone that “he’s Disco because he throws in the 70s”. That’s classic!! I always enjoyed the name Disco Dan Ford too, but that was just because of the sound and how it rolled off of the tongue.
Will this lead to Jamie Moyer being known as Psychedelic Moyer since he mostly now throws in the 60s?
The Royals out of any team really should be unconventional and try anything, 4 man rotations, All defense team, no starters just relievers everyday, etc.
But baseball has such a “heard” mentality when it come to any kind of innovation.
I like the “defensive” team idea. defensive players are usually fast as well, so that’s a bonus, you know Carlos Gomez type of players.
The tough thing when it comes to an all defense team is what defensive metrics are you going to use. In many cases one metric might say Player A is very good and another metric might say that very same player is average at best.
Joe:
Before trying something radical, perhaps the Royals should try winning the conventional way: by actually acquiring good players.
The only position players on the team at the moment who are realistically average or above average (all things objectively considered) about now are DeJesus, Gordon (despite the disappointment, he was average his rookie year, and above average last season — 110 PAs this sesaon is close to meaningless), and Butler (going forward, he’s actually below average at the moment).
I’m glad Dayton Moore acquired those guys, at least. Wait, what’s that?
On second thought, I think the Royals are already using a very bold unconventional strategy:
Acquire position players everyone knows are terrible, then give condescending interviews defending those decisions.
Can’t wait to see how it turns out.
To think they’re still 4 Games back on the Bryce Harper sweepstakes.
Man the Nats landed the best pitching prospect of the decade and will soon have the best hitting prospect.
Spud, the minor-leaguer ended up getting LASIK. Haven’t heard how it went though.
This is pretty much how Bill McKechnie became a Hall of Fame Manager. He made the World Series with the Pirates and the Reds, managed the Boston Braves to an above 500 record, and was rumored to be the brains behind Lou Boudreau for the 48 Indians (he was the bench coach).
That’s the case that Bill James made in his Managers Book anyway.
Have you read Malcolm Gladwell’s article on underdogs? It speaks to this exactly.
http://www.gladwell.com/2009/2009_05_11_a_david.html
Great Disco story. Congrats on making your own dream come true.
Hey Joe, I’d like to point you in the direction of the San Francisco Giants. They have a terrible offense except for the panda but are making a run at the wildcard because of their pitching/defense. Obviously the Giants have far superior pitching as well as a better defense than the Royals but the basic idea is certainly working.
As I posted in a different thread (lots of blogs here recently) I think the Royals should consider getting Charlie Haeger from the Dodgers, probably back to AAA (to make room for Garland). He’s a 26 year old knuckler. Now HE hasn’t pitched great; decently, but not great. But look at the downstream effects. The bullpen in his games have pitched 10 2/3 innings without allowing a run. The Dodgers as a whole in the games he started and the next day games have an ERA under 2.5. So get the unconventional pitcher.
As for defensive wizards, there are plenty of those. Every player in AAA is there because either he can’t field well enough to make the big league club, or can’t hit well enough. The Dodgers have an entire infield at AAA that I think can field great but not hit well enough to make the big club. In particular look at Blake DeWitt’s range numbers at third base last year. But Hu and Abreu both seemed to be very good fielders.
And you don’t need the super defenders at every position. You can skimp in left field and one of the corner infield spots. With great defensive infielders, the first baseman’s ability to scoop bad throws is less needed. Or with a great first baseman, you could get more offense at third. But KC would have to admit that what they have been doing hasn’t been working. I remember the Cardinals in the 1980s were a team built with great speed, defense, and Jack Clark at first base, and they didn’t do too badly.
Ah, that would mean Moore has a clue and a plan. I see no sign he has either. It’s GMs like him that make me wish I’d gone into baseball instead of software way back when.