Zack
Posted: August 26th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 108 Comments »
Some people have written in to ask if my quick, “This is the worst Royals team I’ve ever seen” line was some late night, spur of the moment, gut reaction thing. I can assure you … it absolutely was not. I have quite a long, statistically-based thought behind all this. I’ll get to that for those of you interested (I suspect this would be about 12 of you).
BUT … today’s not the day for that, not after Zack Greinke’s spectacular 8-inning, 5-hit, 15-strikeout game against the Cleveland Indians Wednesday night. Those 15 strikeouts were a team record and tied Tim Lincecum for the most in a game this season. Nobody had 15 strikeouts in a game last year.
I’ve been banging the drum for Greinke for a long time. I’ve taken plenty of hits over it — like the time I put Greinke at No. 4 on my Top 100 list. Fair enough — in fact that’s part of the fun. I’ll just keep saying it until more people believe me: Zack Greinke is the best pitcher in the game. I have five reasons for this.
1. Greinke pitches in the American League.
I know there is a lot of knee-jerk stuff out there now about the NL being the inferior hitters league — what with Cliff Lee (5-0, 0.68 ERA in NL) suddenly pitching like he’s Lefty Grove. And, of course, C.C. Sabathia with his career 3.80 ERA in the AL was a full two runs better — 11-2, 1.65 ERA, — when pitching for the Brewers last year. Matt Holliday is killing the ball again now that he’s back in the NL. And so on. These seem to me like random examples that don’t prove much.
BUT … it’s obvious that, just because of the DH, the American League will naturally be the tougher league to pitch in. The American League ERA is almost always higher, and often a half-run higher. It’s just obvious: DHs are hitting .256/.340/.754. National League pitchers are hitting .144/.186/.186 and NL pinch-hitters are hitting .228/.315/.358. That’s just a huge difference. There are undoubtedly other differences … but I think it’s clear that the American League is the tougher pitcher league.
And so … Greinke has to get some credit for that. I saw a couple of weeks ago there was a smattering of talk about maybe giving Tim Lincecum the MVP award in addition to the Cy Young. The talk — our emigo Jonah Keri seemed to start it — was built around the idea that Lincecum isn’t just having a great season, he’s having a historic one, a season a lot like Pedro’s great year or Clemens’ or Gooden’s. Now, I think Lincecum has not pitched quite as well since then, but still I look at his season compared to Greinke’s …
Win-Loss
Greinke: 12-8
Lincecum: 12-4
ERA
Greinke: 2.43 — leads league
Lincecum: 2.43
Innings
Greinke: 181.3
Lincecum: 185.3
Strikeouts
Greinke: 197
Lincecum: 214 — leads league.
Walks
Greinke: 39
Lincecum: 51
WHIP
Greinke: 1.119
Lincecum: 1.041
Homers per nine
Greinke: .5 — leads league
Lincecum: .4
ERA+
Greinke: 181 — leads league
Lincecum: 178
Complete games and shutouts
Greinke: 5 and 2 — both lead league.
Lincecum: 4 and 2 — both lead league.
Wins Above Replacement
Greinke: 7.2
Lincecum: 7.1
OK, you can see what I’m getting at here: There is virtually no difference in their statistics — except maybe win-loss percentage (which nobody could blame Greinke for) and Lincecum does have an edge in Ks and WHIP. If Lincecum is having an historic season, then Greinke is too. But there’s this: Greinke is having HIS season in the American League. And that’s a huge difference, I think. I think it’s fair to say that, considering league, Greinke’s having a better year.
You can do the same thing with Chris Carpenter if you want — there was a bit of a civil war on my Facebook page as Cardinals fans and Royals fans attacked over Greinke vs. Carpenter — but I don’t think it’s quite the same comparison since Carpenter (and believe me I LOVE this Carpenter story) has been off and on and has pitched almost 40 fewer innings than Greinke. He also pitches in the NL …
2. Greinke pitches for a terrible team.
You will sometimes hear people say that what Greinke is doing is somehow LESS IMPRESSIVE because he’s doing it for the Royals while, say, Beckett or Carpenter or Sabathia or Lincecum are doing it in something resembling a pennant race.
Well, I have the opposite view. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that if the Royals were a good team and in a pennant race, Greinke would be pitching much better. Obviously I can’t prove this — and no one can prove the opposite either — but I would say that losing wears down someone like Zack way more than pressure. The guy loves to compete. That’s where he gets his kicks. It has always been like that for him. Part of his magical April, I think, was built around the hope that the Royals (this time, finally) were real contenders.
Again, I couldn’t prove it: But I’m utterly convinced that pitching for a going-nowhere team has worn Greinke down physically and mentally. He craves big moments. He hungers for pressure situations. This is the stuff that drives him. And this team, this season, has been like Kryptonite.
3. Greinke gets no run support.
This is obvious, but can’t be repeated enough. He gave up one run in eight innings at Anaheim and lost, and he threw seven shutout innings against Detroit and got a no-decision. He gave up three hits and one run in seven innings against Texas (10 strikeouts too) and lost, and he gave up one run in seven innings against Tampa and got a no-decision. He has four other no-decisions when he had quality starts, and he has another loss as a quality start. So that’s, what, nine games he had a quality start — often a lot better than a quality start — and either lost or got a no-decision.
It’s so bad that when he gave up four runs in seven innings against the White Sox — the ball was just flying out of U.S. Cellular that day — he said afterward that when you give up four runs you “shouldn’t win.” No worries there — he has given up four or more earned runs in a game four times all year and he didn’t win any of those games.
Six Cy Young candidates ERA by decision (you can see that King Felix Hernandez has gotten really jobbed by a lack of run support too).
Wins
King Felix (12) — 1.19 ERA
Greinke (12) — 1.20 ERA
Beckett (14) — 1.54 ERA
Justin Verlander (14) — 1.60 ERA
C.C. Sabathia (15) — 2.01 ERA.
Roy Halladay (13) — 2.10 ERA
Losses
Zack Greinke (8) — 4.62 ERA
Roy Halladay (7) — 5.25 ERA
Justin Verlander (7) — 6.86 ERA
C.C. Sabathia (7) — 6.95 ERA
Josh Beckett (5) — 7.99 ERA
King Felix (5) — 8.89 ERA
No Decisions
Felix Hernandez (9) — 2.25 ERA
Zack Greinke (6) — 2.45 ERA
Roy Halladay (5) — 2.73 ERA
Justin Verlander (6) — 4.30 ERA
C.C. Sabathia (5) — 4.55 ERA
Josh Beckett (6) — 5.40 ERA
It’s pretty clear — nobody is more consistently good than Zack Greinke.
4. He never gets to face the Royals lineup.
This is more of a funny line … but it’s absolutely true. You know that wins play a big role in Cy Young voting. Well, four the last five Cy Young winners have come out of the American League Central. Last year, Cliff Lee won the American League Cy Young. He went 5-0 against the Royals. C.C. Sabathia went only 2-2 against the Royals the year before (his team was the Twins), but Johan Santana in 2006 went 3-0 against Kansas City, and in 2004 he went 3-1.
A few potential Cy Young Candidates against Royals this year:
Roy Halladay: 1-0, 0.00 ERA.
Josh Beckett: 1-0, 0.00 ERA.
C.C. Sabathia: 1-0, 0.00 ERA.
Scott Feldman: 1-0, 0.00 ERA.
Jon Lester: 1-0, 0.00 ERA.
Justin Verlander: 2-0, 2.08 ERA — 19 Ks in 13 innings.
King Felix: Has not faced Royals yet .. might in coming week.
5. He’s the most complete pitcher in the game right now.
Greinke made one of the best defensive plays I’ve ever seen a pitcher make Tuesday night. It was a hard chopper up the middle — Greinke finished his motion, stopped, jumped about two feet straight up in the air, somehow snagged the ball, pulled it down, landed in a balanced way and threw the runner out at first. You will see pitchers make great plays, but many of them are reflex plays — throw the glove up fast, stab for the white blur, and so on. Greinke knew exactly what he was doing. It was a fabulous play.
And it reminded me: This guy is a terrific defensive player. He was a shortstop in high school, and he still plays the position like a shortstop.
And so you have a guy who throws a 97-mph fastball, a devastating slider, a 68-mph curveball and an occasionally devastating change-up. As mentioned, he fields his position. He’s got a good quick move. He’s been the toughest guy in the American League to hit homers against, he’s second in the league in strikeouts, he’s fifth in the league in walks per nine, and he’s second in the league in WHIP.
Over the last year — this would include last September — he’s 16-9, 2.39 ERA, 224 Ks in 214 innings, 46 walks and 12 homers allowed for one of the worst teams in the league. Nobody has been better than that.
You know Carlos Beltran had that amazing playoffs for Houston and then signed the huge deal then had the great season for the Mets in 2006. During that time, people would come up occasionally and say, “Sure, you knew Carlos Beltran was good in KC but you couldn’t have known he would be THIS GOOD.”
We knew. We really did. Baseball might not be great in Kansas City, but it does count. And I’ll just say it again: Zack Greinke’s the best pitcher in the game.
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Hmm… sounds like Mauer and Greinke would be an interesting pair for the top American League awards.
When was the last time either league (or, if it needs to go back that far, when only one award was given out) that both went to players on teams with losing records?
Zack attack!
And, sadly, unless he finishes the season like he started it, he won’t win the Cy Young….
Zack’s got my vote. (Unfortunately, I don’t really have a vote.)
Gotta still go with Lincecum on this one
Being a Jays fan, I’ve been hoping that Zack would stumble enough to let Roy Halladay sneak past to grab another Cy Young award. But now I’m feeling guilty about that.
I did find this part really interesting: “But I’m utterly convinced that pitching for a going-nowhere team has worn Greinke down physically and mentally. He craves big moments. He hungers for pressure situations. This is the stuff that drives him. And this team, this season, has been like Kryptonite.”
I wonder if that’s been Halladay’s problem lately – he’s just had enough of losing and despair, and not getting traded to a contender really took the wind out of his sails.
It’s tough to argue against Zack’s numbers. Great post, as always.
A bunch of us baseball bloggers have, thanks to the fine work of Daniel at C70 At The Bat (a St. Louis Cardinals blog), come together to form the Baseball Bloggers Alliance. One of the things we’ll be doing is voting on the end of season awards once game #162 goes into the books. I’m very interested to see how the bloggers and baseball writers will differ in their views of who wins each award.
If I had to vote for the AL Cy Young today, Greinke would be the name on my ballot.
dh slugging is 754 ?!
Not to mention how much lower Zack’s ERA would be if he had a league average defense behind him.
Lincecum and Greinke are both in the conversation for best pitcher in the majors. Along with (this year) Haren, Wainwright, Cain, Hernandez, Carpenter, Halladay, Verlander, etc..
But those two are certainly the most fun to watch. Even with the dreadful Royals in the field behind Zack.
I wonder if the Royals will put Greinke on the block this offseason. He could bring in a MASSIVE haul for a team in desperate need of good, young talent. I know he’s still under the Royals control for 3 more years at unbelievable prices (7.25, 13.5, 13.5 – H/T to Cot’s), but there has to be some merit to dealing him now when his value is close to or at its apex.
Why would Matt Holliday hitting a ton when back in the NL be an indicator of it being easier to pitch in the NL? Or are you just saying that the NL is inferior in every way and pitching AND hitting statistics from that league are inflated?
Joe – As a big fan of Lincecum’s (due primarily to Tom Verducci’s wonderful piece last July in SI), I am going to say that everything you say is true. Pitching in the NL is just easier than in the AL and there’s no other way around it. Now, whether Greinke is the top guy in the AL – I’m not certain but I’ll let you continue to make your sound arguments for him. I’d love to see Zack get the Cy Young in November – sort of like Carlton on that horrible ‘72 Phillies club.
well said. love the write up
Greinke’s got what, 7-8 starts left?
He needs to win at least four of those to have a chance at the Cy Young.
Reaching 250 K’s wouldn’t hurt either.
I just wonder how many of Lincecums K’s come against pitchers. You have to think this inflates his numbers significantly.
Just remember, the Royals had a chance to draft Lincecum, but took Hochevar instead. Great move!!!!
One great easy stat available at Baseball Prospectus: Quality of Batters Faced for pitchers.
Greinke: .761 opponents OPS (23/85 of qualified pitchers)
The NL pitchers from the debates:
Lincecum: .716 opponents OPS (81/85 of qualified pitchers)
Carpenter: .717 opponents OPS (80/85 of qualified pitchers)
The actual strength of talent in the AL vs NL can at least be debated. The strength of lineups that pitchers face cannot. Facing batters with an average OPS .044 points higher is a huge difference.
Great stat todmod. Thanks for posting it.
All great points, Joe. He’ll never win the Cy this year (just ask Santana about the importance of wins), but he’s clearly one of the 3-5 best pitchers in all of MLB.
I agree with one poster above, also. Imagine putting him in front of a league average or even very good defensive team…
Gawd, I hate w-l record as an individual stat. If I had the power of a widely read blog, I’d point out it’s stupidity every day (with actual examples, like Nathan blowing a save, pitching terribly in the 10th, but getting the win…).
You may have left out one of the bigger things that tilt this toward Grienke…defense. Or for the Royals, lack thereof. The Royals horrible defensively. Awful. And while some of this will show itself in unearned runs (which I know Zack’s had quite a few against him), it also hurts WHIP — because you don’t get out of innings as fast. Additionally, this team isn’t exactly taking base hits away from hitters…and in fact, a lot of balls that would be outs if Jack Wilson is playing SS, end up as hits with Betencort or Bloomquist at SS. It just is what it is. And don’t even get me started on Jose Guillen’s barely running to catch up with ball in the OF all season.
The stats proving the AL is a superior offensive league to the NL are indisputable.
I don’t like using individual pitchers to prove the point though. Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder come to mind as counterpoints.
There are two Brents that just posted. I do agree wholeheartedly with what Brent#20 said though.
Regardless of whether Greinke or TLinc is the best pitcher in the game this instant, when you start discussing overall value I continue to be flabbergasted that people take Greinke. Let’s say it’s pretty much a push in terms of performance right now (you’re cherry-picking a bit since Greinke just pitched yesterday and TLinc goes on Friday). Beyond their current respective performances, you have TLinc being both younger and with a longer track record of success in the Majors.
RE: Joe’s point #2 – is the single best season ever by any pitcher that of Steve Carlton, winning 27 games for a 59-win Phillies team?
As Dustin and Brent point out, there’s also the huge gap in defensive support between Greinke and Lincecum. The Royals have a terrible defense (second WORST by UZR) and the Giants have an excellent defense (second BEST by UZR).
Zack who??
Mark Sanchez has been named the starting quarterback for the New York Jets!! MARK SANCHEZ HAS BEEN NAMED THE STARTING QUARTERBACK FOR THE NEW YORK JETS!!
This is WAY more important than somebody actually accomplishing something in sport competition last night. ESPN made Sanchez the lead story on Sports Center this morning, so it has to be the most important thing, right?? I mean, they even had a video clip from Rex Ryan explaining the decision and everything!!
Did you know that Joe Namath didn’t even start his first game as a rookie until week three?? JOE NAMATH DIDN’T EVEN START HIS FIRST GAME AS A ROOKIE UNTIL WEEK THREE!!
The only baseball news anybody cares about is Johan Santana’s injury. He’s out for 8 billion weeks, because his arm fell off, if you haven’t heard.
Geez, Joe…get with the program…
Joe,
You make a great case for Zach, obviously. But I think you may be looking at him through KC glasses, and missing a few things.
You talk about him having to pitch in the AL, and the #’s tell us it’s a harder league to pitch in. However, Zach hasn’t faced the Yankees or Red Sox (2 of the top 3 offeneses). In May he shut down the top offense (Angels) Against Tampa, the 4th highest scoring team, he has a 5.25era.
And his era against the NL this year, is hiring than his era against the AL. And he only faced Arizona and Pittsburgh. His era is a full run higher on the road, Linecum isnt much better, but he is better in that regard.
You’re right, he hasn’t had the joy of facing the Royals. But against the bottom half of the AL, he has 15 of his 26 starts. Even though he has 4 more complete games than Felix, he’s only pitched in 3 more innings.
Mostly I disagree with your comment, about him having a year like Gooden or Pedro (mainly my man Doc: http://hirp-com.blogspot.com/2009/08/baseblog-ii-doctor-is-in.html)
Gooden’s era was under 2 on the road, and at home, before the break and after, and a ridiculous 2.89 in loses. Nearly 2 runs better than Greinke. Basically, Gooden had the best season since Bob Gibsons 1.12 season. Greinke is having one of the best seasons in 2009.
20. Lincecum has struck out 20 pitchers.
No way the DH is slugging .754, needs a correction.
Just a quick point-out: the DH position is actually batting .256/.340/.454, not .754. That did seem unusually high to me, as well
Greinke is have the greatest season for a player on a losing teams since Dawson in ‘87. Sadly I don’t see him getting the year end rewards that Dawson got that year.
Aaron, Greinke is, what?, 9 months older? And as for “longer track record of success” you’re really talking about the two seasons for both right? And if one buys Pos’s argument that Greinke’s performance in the AL is better than TLinc’s in the NL–I do, and you don’t–then it’s pretty clear that the “track record” favors Greinke.
That’s only three reasons, Joe. Nos. 2-4 are all variations on “the Royals suck” …
Grienke, Lincecum. Lincecum, Grienke. Coin flip if you ask me.
But the problem is this: “The talk — our emigo Jonah Keri seemed to start it — was built around the idea that Lincecum isn’t just having a great season, he’s having a historic one, a season a lot like Pedro’s great year…”
I would LOVE for someone to attempt to pose a valid argument that either one of these two are having a year anything remotely close to Petey’s 2000 season.
ERA: 1.74 – lowest in AL since 1968
ERA+: 291 (!!) – best all time
WHIP: 0.737 (!!) – best all time
SO: 284 in 217 IP
BB: 32 – in 29 starts (!!)
K/BB: 8.88/1 – fifth best all time
CG/Shutouts: 7/4
So, no, Lincecum’s season is not Pedro’s in 2K– it’s not even close.
Felix has bad run support but it’s not anywhere near as bad as Zack’s. The Mariners are pretty good at timely hitting, at least. Felix doesn’t get as many wins as he should, but his losses are reduced since the M’s have taken him off the hook after he left the game trailing six times. The Royals have not done that for Zack even once this year.
Since according to Zack, “you give up four runs, you deserve to lose,” here’s now things stack up:
4+ runs given up (includes unearned):
Greinke: 6
Halladay: 8
Hernandez: 8
Beckett: 9
Verlander: 10
Sabathia: 11
And I agree that part reason that Greinke is so enjoyable to watch is that he’s a complete ballplayer, and those are rare among pitchers (c.f., watching the Royals relief pitchers trying to “field”). He reminds me of a young Mike Mussina with better stuff. Both are 6′2″/190, low-key, bright guys with tremendous athleticism, insane command of the strike zone, and preternatural ability to change speeds. With Mussina and Kenny Rogers retired, I would be surprised if Greinke didn’t get the Gold Glove this year. The managers and coaches love giving the award to guys having strong pitching years and also “look good” on the field, and Greinke’s the only elite pitcher in the AL who isn’t also uh, “large.”
Greinke should definitely win the Cy, as he has clearly been the best pitcher in the AL if not all of baseball. The likelihood is that he won’t, however. If a non-Zack guy wins, here’s to hoping it’s Felix, Verlander or Halladay. If Sabathia wins (as posited by Joe Morgan on Monday night), it will further the case that it is a meaningless award. If Kevin Millwood has a better ERA than you, you aren’t a Cy Young winner in my estimation.
Actually, Sabathia v. Greinke presents an interesting case.
They’ve allowed virtually the same amount baserunners to reach in 181 IP, yet Sabathia has given up 25 more earned runs.
I don’t know quite what to make of that other than Greinke has been ridiculously good with runners on base.
Is Greinke the best pitcher in the game or the pitcher having the best season? Those are not necessarily the same thing.
Hopefully Zack won’t win the Cy this year and stay under the radar during the off season. No way should the Royals trade away this guy, not after going to bat for him during his problems and it now reaping lot’s of benefits.
No, the Royals should build around Zack and the few other good players they have. Get rid of the junk during the off season, maybe just pay Jose Guillen to stay away from the K. I’d really like to see a new manager, put Hillman out of his misery. Me? I’d call Brett up and tell him to show everyone how the game is played AND be the manager for 2010. I’d tell him just manage the team like it used to be managed when the Royals were good. Impart that work ethic on the young players and see if it makes a difference. We’re going to lose 100 games this year so there’s nothing to lose by bustin’ some balls for a year.
PS: Don’t forget, PAY Guillen to stay away from the K, he’s a piece of effing shite!
[...] Posnanski makes many good points about why Zack Greinke is the best pitcher in the game today, but this one drove the point home for me: He never gets to face the Royals [...]
Zack is having the best season, but the best pitcher is probably a tossup between Greinke and Lincecum. I really can’t decide
I guess it also depends somewhat on what you mean by best pitcher. Pitcher that would be taken first in an expansion draft if every player became a free agent? Pitcher you want on the mound for a Game 7 or other important game? Something else?
Look, we all know Zack is not going to win the Cy. He could pitch shut-out innings the entire rest of the season, and he still wouldn’t win the Cy. As long as his team is nothing more than a reliable punch line, he has no chance. So when they give it someone else, let’s discuss how skewed the criteria are, but everybody should stop dreaming about him getting that award.
#37 (Kermit):
I can only speculate, but here are a few possible reasons:
1) Inherited runners … Greinke has only been pulled in the middle of an inning 3 times, leaving 4 runners on base, while CC has been pulled 12 times, leaving 16 runners on (including leaving the bases loaded twice). These runners can be driven in with a walk or hit without actually adding to their baserunner totals.
2) ISO … Their OBP-allowed are about the same, but CC has allowed a higher SLG and lower BA, meaning he’s given up more extra bases. CC has allowed 5 less doubles, but 1 more triple and 6 more HRs, for 15 more extra bases.
3) base stealing? … 4 SB, 6 CS vs Zack … 9 SB, 7 CS vs CC
4) Zack has been quite a bit better at getting K’s … Are high-K pitchers more likely to escape jams than low K? I have no idea.
These still doesn’t seem like they would be enough to make up the disparity.
The fact that CC has allowed roughly the same amount of baserunners as Greinke is mostly attributed to his being much more hit-lucky than Zack (.278 BABiP vs. .327). Greinke has allowed fewer of those runners to score on account of his being more stingy with the longball and the fact that he’s struck out nearly 50 more batters. Those two facets are skill related, not luck related.
@#44: According to baseball prospectus, CC has left 16 runners and 4 have scored, Zack has left 4 runners and 3 have scored. So, inherited runners are not factor.
The only baseball news anybody cares about is Johan Santana’s injury. He’s out for 8 billion weeks, because his arm fell off, if you haven’t heard
wow. thats hilarious. maybe grienke should qb for the giants or jets. then theyd notice 15 ks
If you love someone, set them free.
It is obvious that The Royals are not going to turn this around in a hurry, the question is, if you love Zack so much, where would you prefer to see him pitch other than in KC?
Would he be lights out in the National League? He’s very welcome to come over to Colorado (in my mind). The humidor would be his friend.
Me? I’d call Brett up and tell him to show everyone how the game is played AND be the manager for 2010.
I have the sneaking suspicion that George Brett is part of the problem rather than part of the solution.
Thanks for the work, davidh.
I figured the homeruns were a factor, but hadn’t considered the difference in inherited runners. That’s also a pretty telling stat on the different managerial styles of Hillman and Girardi.
Doing some digging it also appears that Sabathia has much more trouble than Greinke with a runner on first. Though both have been very stingy with RISP.
Further to your point about Greinke never getting to face the Royals lineup, the converse argument must also be made that 3 AL Cy Young contenders – Halladay, Sabathia and Beckett – have to pitch in the offensively superior AL East. The unbalanced schedule means not only that Greinke benefits from pitching more frequently against teams like Cleveland and the Chisox (only Detroit has played better than .500 for most of the season), but he hasn’t faced Boston or New York once. Halladay, on the other hand, has faced Boston, New York or Tampa Bay 10 times. Sabathia has faced Boston, Tampa and Toronto 6 times, while Beckett has faced New York, Tampa and Toronto 8 times (Beckett’s ERA didn’t drop below 6.42 until after he faced Tampa Bay and New York 5 times in the first month).
Don’t get me wrong – Greinke is having a superior campaign, and your points about him pitching for a terrible team and getting no run support are spot on. But when considering the question of who is baseball’s best pitcher, the unbalanced schedule creates “testing” discrepancies for AL pitchers as significant as the designated hitter does for comparisons between AL and NL pitchers.
Aaron/XYZ – A longer track record of success? This is his 3rd year. And he is less than a year younger than Greinke, so that isn’t valid. They both have 26 games, so no “cherry picking”. Be flabbergasted if you want, but don’t let it get in the way of the facts.
If Greinke had any run support he would be leading the Cy Young race.
How about a Gold Glove campaign for Grienke? Only 3 pitchers have won the Gold Glove in the AL since 1996, and none of them are pitching in the AL this season: Mike Mussina (7), Kenny Rogers (5) and Johan Santana (1).
The NL award is also up for grabs, as Greg Maddox had won it every year since 1990, with the exception of 2003 when Mike Hampton won.
1) No one compares to Pedro’s 2000 season. Just look at post #34 for the numbers. Greinke and Lincecum aren’t even close.
2) Greinke and Lincecum are likely the two best pitchers of 2009 and have very similar stats but as post #17 pointed out, Greinke’s opponents OPS is .044 point greater than Lincecum’s, which is quite significant.
The Gold Glove might as well be renamed the the Brown Glove. It’s a popularity contest and a completely meaningless pile of shit.
Well said, Sweatpants. Thanks, you really made me chuckle on that one. BROWN GLOVE – PRICELESS!!
I haven’t looked back and done a full statistical breakdown on this, but Joe you might remember Nolan Ryan pitching for the Astros in 1987, a team that went 76-86.
Ryan went just 8-16 due to terrible run support, but led the league with a 2.76 ERA in 34 starts, strikeouts with 270, ERA+ 142, and hits per nine innings with 6.5.
His WHIP was 1.139 and his strikeout to walk ratio was 3.10 to lead the league, but he finished 5th in the voting for Cy Young. It was won by Phillies closer Steve Bedrosian. I covered the Astros that year and there wasn’t a better pitcher than Ryan in the N.L. hands down.
Bert Blyleven was filling in for Rob Dibble the other day (tweedledum for tweedledee, I know, and I say this as a Blyleven fan), and opined that while Grienke is having a great year, the lack of wins was a bit disturbing, and the best choice for AL Cy Young was Josh Beckett.
Sigh.
Ironic on a number of levels, not the least of which is the fact that pitching for lousy teams is keeping Bert out of the HOF.
Grienke’s a better hitter than Lincecum, too. If we’re translating Grienke’s performance into a league-agnostic setting, shouldn’t we take that into account, too?
In fact, he’s quite possibly (even probably) a better shortstop RIGHT NOW than Betancourt, and in every facet. Certainly better range and arm, and I would have to assume a better all-around hitter too (though maybe not after pitchers had seen more of him).
Thanks I’m back off the ledge after yesterday.
I think I just experienced a slight mini-stroke, TIA or whatever we call them nowadays….During the episode I had the sudden thought of Steve Bedrosian winning the 1987 NL Cy Young Award. I have now come back to real life and re-gained my senses.
Wow! Close one there…
Uh Joe, CC played for the Indians 2 years ago, not the Twins.
Never mind, I see what you mean. Boy I’m slow.
While I’m on the subject of positional deficiencies, does it bother anyone else—as deeply as it does me—that the Royals have five (5!) players on their on their active roster who were drafted as catchers . . . and they still don’t have a good catcher?
Five catchers, all of them league-average or worse with the bat (mostly worse), none of them strong behind the plate, and all of them are on the A.R.
We have a catcher in the outfield. Another catcher at DH. One catcher is actually playing catcher, but doing so poorly. One more catcher is on the bench—the “emergency-backup” to our terrible catcher(s).
And WE STILL HAVE ANOTHER CATCHER AFTER THAT.
i think your batting line for the DH is wrong. I don’t see how they could be slugging .754. Are you sure that’s not OPS?
P.S. For those of you counting at home:
13 Pitchers + 5 Catchers = 18
25 Roster Spots – 18 = 7 Non-Catcher Batsmen = 7 Non-Catcher Defensive Positions
The theory being, apparently, that a GM should have as few players from those positions that produce the best hitters as possible; then around them he should build the worst relief staff in the Majors, somehow using 8 roster spots to do it; and then carry as many failed catchers as current MLB policy will allow.
You get the feeling that if we could just get away with a four-man rotation, Justin Huber might have finally gotten his shot.
I love the Greinke v. Lincecum debate. But as a Royals fan (sigh) I have to add the Royals COULD, COULD have had them both.
Lincecum went 10th overall in 2006 and there was lots of talk about him as best college pitcher in the draft. There were others in the mix of course (Lincoln, Miller if you want to go lefty) but Lincecum was a candidate. And there were the Royals, fat, dumb, and happy with the #1 pick. Looking for a college pitcher to draft….no clear cut #1 pick. Just some kid absolutely mowing them down in the PAC-10….
And the Royals went the conventional route, looked at a 5′11″, 170 pound dude with odd mechanics and passed.
What might have been, with a little courage to challenge the old conventional wisdom. Why I bet with both Greinke and Lincecum in the rotation the Royals would be a 70 win team. Ah, what might have been.
I have to respond to your Pete Rose reinstatement plea. I will give you the benefit of the doubt that you aren’t arguing simply to churn interest in a certain book coming out soon. But your article ignores a critical fact: Rose was the manager.
In 1984, 22 year old starting pitcher Jeff Russell pitched 182 innings while leading the league in losses. He was basically done as a starter. He’d never done more than 143 in a season in the minors. And he was basically done as a starting pitcher. Twelve more years mostly as a reliever, with 39 more career starts. Did Pete Rose overuse Russell to rest a tired bullpen that had been trying to win his bet the day before? We’ll never know.
Joe Price in 1984 set a career high of innings as a 27 year old. He would never pitch that many innings again in any TWO seasons remaining. Did Rose ruin his arm because of bets? Again, we’ll never know.
23 year old Jay Tibbs in 1985 pitched 218 innings for Rose. He’d never pitch 200 innings in a season again. Did Rose have bets down that affected his usage of Tibbs, or of Tibbs relievers? Who can tell?
That’s just looking at Rose’s starters from 1984. I left alone guys with more established careers, or Mario Soto, who looks to have been on the road to burn out before Rose became his manager.
There are other examples. Ted Power, a lifelong reliever, was put into the rotation in 1987 and almost doubled his innings to 204. The next year his arm was dead, his ERA ballooned fro 4.5 to almost 6, and although his arm recovered to pitch well in subsequent seasons, he never again managed 100 IP, something he did regularly as a closer under Rose. I’ll stop at 1987, because my point is made. I haven’t looked at 1988, 1989, or at relievers. But Rose was terrible at overusing starting pitchers.
I’m not suggesting that some or even any of those guys would have become a solid major leaguer under Bobby Cox. I know our knowledge of the game and mechanics and the effects of pitches on arms has improved a lot in the past 20 years. But my recollection from listening to Vin Scully talk about the Dodgers playing the Reds during Rose’s managerial tenure sure had a lot of comments about pitcher injuries, more than any other team. In those years I attended or listened to at least 140 games a year and had Dodger season tickets.
Now if Rose the player had bet on himself (for all we know, he did) I wouldn’t object. One player betting on his team to win will not change what he does to hurt his team or anybody else on it. But a manager might push his ace (Soto) too hard, might bring in his closer early to seal the deal, might not have the closer available the next day because of sealing the deal the prior day which in turn might force a starter to pitch too long after he has lost his stuff.
Did Rose do those things? We’ll never know. And it’s disingenuous to suggest that people have continued sniffing into Rose’s better practices. In fact, it’s deceitful; I’m ashamed of you. Once Rose was banned for life, there was no reason to keep on researching just how bad an apple he was. And as everybody with a degree in history knows, the further in time you get from what you are researching, the harder it is to find information about it that can be confirmed from other sources. People die, people move, people forget, con artists counting on deaths come out to peddle lies.
We’ll never know what Rose really did. But what we know is bad enough. He broke rule one, he admitted breaking rule one, he gives the appearance of having hurt his pitchers while breaking rule one, he accepted his lifetime ban, so keep him banned. It’s the best way to ensure that the next Pete Rose decides not to gamble on baseball. After Rose dies, we can reinstate him. After.
Greinke is also 5th in the league in CS% with 60% of runners getting caught against him.
To David 51. Greinke has faced Toronto and TB 4 times and LAA, the top scoring team in the league, twice. He has faced Texas twice and allowed 1 run in 16IP. I think it all evens out.
Got one thing wrong. I was there Tuesday, and Zack jumped at least 3 feet to field that liner up the middle.
You missed your calling, Joe. You should be a lawyer. You build a case better than most. Great column.
2 words:
Sympathy Votes
The idea that he hasn’t faced the yankees or red sox enough is irrelevant. Neither of these teams are god, and by thinking that he’d get hit around is buying into east coast hero worship you hear everyday from connecticut’s ESPN.
If Xaq were in the NL, not only would he have more K’s than linnycum, he’d probably have like 6 home runs too.
Joe,
I generally agree with you. I don’t know if it’s because you write so well or because you’re generally right and suppport your argument with facts. The whole Rose affair just makes me sick. It literally makes me angry, upset and physically nauseous.
I don’t think the Rose affair is like anything else in baseball other than what the Black Sox did in 1919. I don’t think it is the same as steroids, amphetamines, racism (keeping black players out of the game). I don’t think it is a matter of morality either. I know there are as many men of poor character in the HOF (Ruth, Cobb(unbelievable racist)) as there are men of great character (Gehrig, Musial). Unscrupulous players like Rose would make me stop watching baseball. If I thought that baseball was rigged I would stop watching. What is the point of watching a sport where you don’t know if the players are trying to win or lose. Isn’t that what the problem was in boxing for a while? Isn’t that one of the main reasons that MMA is gaining on or surpassing boxing? I don’t watch basketball anymore since the Jordan rules were in effect. I think Michael Jordan can be considered the greatest athlete and competitor that has ever come from the US. Yet I was a Knicks fan and it didn’t seem worth my time to watch them play in the playoffs, it didn’t seem they were playing under the same rules. I don’t think Jordan needed the help, and I did think that the Knicks style of play wasn’t as pleasing. But the point in the sport is that the teams have to play under the same rules. Basketball is unwatchable with the bad calls and favoritism for certain players. The games do not seem legit anymore. Why watch?
Yes, baseball has had athletes who used steroids, greenies, spit balls, stole signs, etc. All these options ocurred under the same rules for everybody, they all did it to try to win or least to be better. Someone using steroids now is punished. You say someone using HGH can get away with it, well that factor is the same for all individuals and all teams. All teams have clean and dirty players. I would like to see more effective testing and could see this issue becoming a problem for baseball in the future. This does not however make me feel the games are unfair or fixed. The issue with Pete Rose is that if you were a fan of his team, how do you ever know if he was legit? He got lots of hits and he played hard, but how do you know he didn’t strike out in a big spot on purpose? How do you know he didn’t manage to lose? Would you want a player on your team that was betting on baseball games? How do you know which way he is betting? Why get emotionally invested in a team or game or sport where you don’t feel the result is legit? I like to gamble, I don’t usually bet on sports cause I live in New Jersey. So this isn’t about being financially impacted by a crooked game, this is about being able to enjoy a game and being able to get emotionally invested in the results of your team to the point that they are the highlight or lowlight of a given day. Players like Rose take that away. He has done the worst possible thing a player can do to the sport. There are worse things you can do in life, there is no worse thing you can do to a sport, any sport than to take away its legitimacy.
I could see if he was repentent and honest about his shortcomings maybe then. I could see if he took responsibility for his actions and didn’t claim they were out to get him, that he was being unfairly attacked. He just hasn’t shown any remorse, isn’t this what everyone is saying about Bonds and Clemens? Just come clean. You just don’t know what he did and what he didn’t do (did he ever actually throw a game) but you can’t believe a word that comes out of his mouth. There are many people with addictions, such as a gambling problem, and maybe I could have seen forgiving Rose if he was a different person, if he had just come clean and admitted his problem and his misdeeds. Then maybe I could see why some people would forgive him and vote for him for the HOF. But to reward Rose for the way he has behaved, as a victim, well, I just can’t see that.
Your point that he should be eligible and that the writers should get to vote is a good one, but Giamatti’s ruling as commissioner is also a valid point. Rose himself agreed to the ban, and maybe after his lifetime they can consider making him eligible and let the voters decide.
Great writing, as always, but in the end, this doesn’t leave me a feeling of pride or joy or astonishment that my little Royals have such a fantastic player. Its depressing. Tiring, really. Because he is such a fantastic player – a joy to watch. And next year we’ll all have to watch him playing for a different team.
Joe, while I respect your opinion, Lincecum is the better pitcher in my opinion.
Also have you noted that except for the AL vs NL (I have no doubt Lincecum would pitch just as well in the AL as he does NL) argument all of these points could be made about Lincecum; he pitches for a terrible team and gets no run support (Ok the Giants are not as bad as the Royals but they have both scored the same amount of runs as of right now, 510). This fact also leads into him not being able to face his own lineup. Finally Lincecum is one of the best athletes in the majors regardless of position and is great defensively as a result.
My only criticism (and I hate to criticise your excellent writings Joe) is that your arguments are too much about Greinke being a victim of circumstance.
1) He pitches in the AL; this is an unfair argument against someone like Lincecum who has had no choice but to pitch in the NL. While it may mean he faces a better quality of opposition than Lincecum, this is hardly Lincecums fault and should therfore not be held against him.
2) He pitches for a terrible team; again it is unfair to claim Greinke is better just because his team is terrible. You make a good point about it potentially being harder mentally than being on a good team but there is no real way of knowing this. When talking about the Royals being terrible, I would focus more on their horrible defense and how that will not help his stats versus Lincecum who has a very good defensive team behind him. Lincecum does have actually have a lower FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 2.23 vs 2.40. They are the top two in the majors, however.
3) He gets no run support; this should be irrelevant when judging how good a pitcher is (we all know wins and losses are a terrible way of evaluating a pitcher), unless it has a mental effect on the player leading to a change in performance for better or worse.
4) He never gets to face the Royals lineup; again focusing on him being a victim of circumstance. Roy Halladay for example, has only faced the Royals once this season and if he doesn’t face them again it will be only one start outof 30+ he makes. Sure it will help his statistics but on the other hand Halladay has faced the Yankees/Red Sox 5 times whereas Greinke has no starts against either.
Just to make things clear after my last post, I do think Zack is a great pitcher having an awesome year and he would get my vote for Al Cy Young if I had a vot right now. I just don’t agree that he is the best pitcher in baseball.
I never made it past #25.
I am stunned to find out that there is a worse defensive team than the Royals. I wonder if it is a flaw in the UZR formula.
If it is not, I feel for the fans of the other team.
Joe,
I would definitely agree that Zack is having the best season of any pitcher in the AL this year. Here are the best 25 (actually, 27 just to get those last two seasons on here) ERA+ years since 1985 (the number in parenthesis is how old they were):
1 Pedro Martinez (28) 291 2000
2 Greg Maddux (28) 271 1994
3 Greg Maddux (29) 262 1995
4 Pedro Martinez (27) 243 1999
5 Dwight Gooden (20) 228 1985
6 Roger Clemens (42) 226 2005
7 Roger Clemens (34) 221 1997
8 Pedro Martinez (25) 219 1997
9 Kevin Brown (31) 216 1996
10 Roger Clemens (27) 213 1990
11 Pedro Martinez (31) 210 2003
12 Pedro Martinez (30) 202 2002
13 Randy Johnson (38) 197 2002
14 Randy Johnson (33) 196 1997
15 Chris Carpenter (34) 194 2009
16 Randy Johnson (31) 192 1995
17 Greg Maddux (31) 189 1997
18 Randy Johnson (37) 188 2001
19 Greg Maddux (32) 187 1998
20 Randy Johnson (35) 186 1999
21 John Tudor (31) 184 1985
22 Johan Santana (25) 182 2004
23 Matt Cain (24) 181 2009
24 Zack Greinke (25) 181 2009
25 Randy Johnson (36) 181 2000
26 Bret Saberhagen (25) 180 1989
27 Kevin Appier (25) 179 1993
A few things here. First, Greinke is having an historic season. Not Pedro historic, but historic. Maybe one of the best we’ve seen in the past 25 years. (But then again, so are Matt Cain and Chris Carpenter? Greinke can have that tiebreaker. Best starter in the league this year.)
Second, this list is littered with the best pitchers of this generation (Pedro, Maddux, Clemens, Big Unit, etc.). Just look at those names. But Appier and Tudor are on here too. Those were two (for a while) very good pitchers…but not all-timers. Anyway, Greinke’s career ERA+ to date is 123, and while I enjoyed your SI column about his roller-coaster career ride, I’ll hold out the “best pitcher in baseball” until he has a few more years of quality pitching under his belt (maybe another Cy-caliber year, for starters). You really believe that Zack Greinke is, all in all, a “better pitcher” than, say, Johan Santana? This year, sure. And he’s having a year that rivals Santana’s best. But let’s not go handing out “best pitcher in baseball awards” to Johnny-come-lately (even if Johnny has *really* come lately) when there are pitchers in this league that have been dominant for a much longer time (Santana). Cliff Lee’s Cy Young year was Greinke’s equal, and it was in the AL. Cliff Lee also has a career ERA+ of 113. Just sayin’. (Side note: I have watched a lot of Greinke this year, and he’s Electric. Cliff Lee is not Electric. Not everything is quantifiable.)
Finally, maybe I missed something, but about 70 people have posted, and you don’t even bring this up in your article either, but fans of this era have the pleasure of watching the all-time leader in ERA+ pitch…Mariano Rivera (*career* ERA+ of two-hundred-flippin’-one…really, 201!) This year, 240. Last year, 317. He’s third in career WHIP, trailing a couple guys born in 1880 and 1881. Last year nobody got a hit off him the whole season. (That’s barely an exaggeration). Whole career in the AL, pitching in the clutch. Career postseason ERA — 0.77. Postseason WHIP — 0.75 (that’s not a typo). This year is just another ho-hum Mariano year, with a lower WHIP than Zack, than Lincecum, than *every* starter in the league, but he’s not mentioned in the “best pitcher” conversation?
Yes, he doesn’t start. But the game is different today than it used to be, and I don’t think you can fault someone who is basically perfection incarnate simply because he has a different role.
So I would qualify:
The best season by a starter, 2009 version –Greinke.
The best pitcher in baseball — Mariano Rivera.
We can still call Greinke “Zack.” But we should seriously be calling Rivera “Sir.” To me, he’s the best pitcher in baseball, and one of the top 10 of all time. He might also be the best pitcher this year…and last year…and the year before…etc. Probably next year too.
As a side note, I’ve probably said this before on this site (I seem to say it a lot), but it’s part of the bedrock of my baseball psyche: I hate hate hate the Yankees. My wife is a Mets fan, and I’m a Sox fan, and my girls (2 and 4) know two things about baseball: (1) Who we like (Sox, Mets), and (2) who we don’t (Yankees). So I don’t throw praise around lightly for a Yankee. When Peter King said that Jeter is the best player of his lifetime (or whatever the exact quote was), I wanted to throw up. And beg Bill James to intercede. A favorite player, maybe, but best??? But the highest compliment I can pay Rivera, as a true Yankee hater, is that I have seen two pitchers in my lifetime that stand head and shoulders above the others*–
*factoring in longevity as least a little, since Doc Gooden in 1985 was like Christ Almighty decided to give baseball a try…that’s out-and-out blasphemy, but how good was that guy!?!? He was 20!!! The Lord giveth, character flaws taketh away.
(1) Pedro in his prime, and (2) Rivera (who has been in his prime forever). And I’m not sure who’s #1 and who’s #2 in my book. I want it to be Pedro, but he had a Koufaxian stretch, while Mariano is having an historically unparalled career. Who in his or her right mind doesn’t vote him in the HOF on the first ballot? If there ever were a unanimous vote…
This is rambling, but one other thing. The most heartbreaking moment of my baseball life was the Grady-Pedro 2003 Game 7. The most thrilling? The Dave Roberts steal game. Both times, an immortal was briefly mortal, with night-and-day different ramifications.
Pedro was, and Mariano still is, above the rest of the mere mortals tossing the ball towards home plate. (Interestingly, Mariano has pitched 1076 innings in his career…and they compare favorably — courtesy of the eyeball check — to the best 1076-or-so inning stretch of Pedro’s magic. And we’re talking about his *whole* 15-year career). Greinke is still a mere mortal, albeit one heck of a compelling one.
Have I swayed you (or anyone) a little? Doesn’t Mariano truly deserves the title of “best pitcher in baseball?” Saying he can’t because he’s a reliever would be like saying Pujols can’t be the best position player in baseball because he’s a first baseman. Maybe there’s the faint whisper of logic in those statements…but no, really, there’s not.
And since I didn’t blab on enough, let me clarify: my first sentence says what I believe to be true: Zack is having the best season by a pitcher in the AL. The Royals are comically bad, to the point that it must be frustrating for the best 10 or so prospects of every decent team to be watching some of these knuckleheads playing in the big leagues while they toil below. The fact that he has a winning record is a miracle of his own doing (e.g., Nolan Ryan pitched great at age 40, and ended up 8-16 on a much better team, so what Zack is doing is incredible). But I feel like every year *somebody* is having an allegedly better season than Rivera…but wonder if most of the time *nobody* truly is. The Cy is obviously for the year, not a multi-year body of work, but if ever there’s a case for a “hey, maybe we shoulda given you one of these, especially since other closers (Mark Davis?!?) have one and you’re the King… and since we gave one to Pat Hentgen instead of you back in ‘96, etc. etc. etc.”-type vote, he’d be the guy.
I’m going to stop arguing that Yankees deserve more respect now, and I’m skipping dessert as punishment for pimping the pinstripes. Ah, who am I kidding–there’s pie in the fridge. But maybe my posts are kind of pointless–everyone who loves sports (and therefore brilliant sports writing) enough to read this site knows how good Mo is anyway. I love me some Papelbon (actually, not quite as much this year), but nobody’s Mo.
@ Chris, no. 36:
Kevin Millwood led the AL in ERA a few years back. So I guess nobody deserved the Cy Young that year?
@ #75 Geoffrey:
I think you missed a few crucial steps in some of the arguments. But the thrust is this:
As you point out, it is unfair to allow the quality of a pitcher’s opponents to affect your appraisal of him. The problem is, the raw stats (Wins, ERA, K, HR, etc.) ARE affected by the quality of the opponents. To solve that people have devised various corrective techniques—park factors, ERA+, etc.—all of which are imperfect, but all of which are theoretically improvements over raw ERA.
The whole reason the Earned Run Average was ever invented was because the even _more_ raw stat, Run Average, fails to account for obvious defensive misplays over which the pitcher had no control.
If there were two pitchers, A and B, who had identical Run Averages of 4.00, and then some smart aleck came up and pointed out that A had really pitched better than B because his _Earned_ Run Average was 2.50 and B’s was 3.50, a fan of B might complain, “Hey! That’s not fair; you’re penalizing B because of something beyond his control!”
Do you see why that is a spurious argument? Pitcher B wasn’t being penalized; pitcher A had been penalized _before_ and now that problem had been corrected.
In this case, by judging the pitchers by ERA+, we are not penalizing Lincecum for being in the NL as much as we are preventing Grienke from being penalized for pitching in the AL.
I’d be interested in seeing information about “wins above replacement team” (WART).
How would Greinke fare if he played for an average team instead of the Royals? How would he fare if he played for the Nats or the Yankees?
Is he anywhere near the holy grail of WART (Steve Carlton in 1972)?
sorry jay,
i don’t care WHO he pitches for, but there is no way and i mean NO way that i would agree that a guy who pitches only 1 inning 50 times a year is a better pitcher than a guy who pitches 5-8 innings 33 times a year.
the guy who only pitches 1 inning a game does so because he was an abject failure when he tried to pitch 5 innings/game way back when he was younger and stronger.
as for greinke,
agree that he won’t be judged fairly because he pitches for a lousy team whose defense AND offense are execrable. the defense cost him both “hits” and wins and the offense costs him wins.
too many voters refuse to take either into account, believeing that the pitcher alone is responsible for a Win and that his teammates have nothing to do with it – or perhaps that he is to be blamed for their failures.
shrug
but i do feel for you joe.
the guy struck out 15 hitters last night and didn’t get so much as a mention on That’s Nasty. if only he was on the yecchs or redsux who deserve to purchase every great pitcher…
I agree fully Joe.
Greinke for Cy Young.
Mauer for MVP.
[...] Zack Greinke proved last night why he should still be the AL Cy Young Award winner. Despite playing on the worst AL team and having a 12-8 record, there is surprisingly still some momentum for Greinke’s Cy Young hopes among the national media. Of course we are blessed to have Joe Posnanski as one of our own who is championing the cause. If you haven’t already done so, check out his latest Greinke piece titled simply, Zack. [...]
Thanks Joe. Nicely done.
lisa–i get why people slag on the role of closer, but the game right now is played the way it is played — every single team either has a high-talent guy closing or really really wishes they had one, even the “enlightened” ones, and the smarter than thou stathead approach is fine (i’m one too) but not when it completely overlooks common sense.
here’s a guy who last year converts 39 out of 40 saves (i know, the word burns some peoples’ ears), pitches 60+ times, strikes out 13 people for every one he walks, has a 0.665 whip, holds opponents to a .123 batting average and .323 OPS on the road, struck out 30 people and walked exactly 1 with men on base, gave up exactly 1 hit in 21 games that featured a 2 out RISP situation (.045 BA), was actually better in the 8th than the 9th and on no days’ rest than with any rest, dominates lefties (.178/.198/.376) even more than righties(.203/.271/.474)…no value there at all. lucky to even have a job, in fact.
yes, when a guy goes 22-3, 2.54 ERA in the AL…okay, that’s a really damn good year (and greinke’s–so far–is probably even better, given the circumstances). but when somebody is just about perfect in a role that every single team in baseball considers crucial, that’s a really damn good year as well.
i don’t think many pitchers have had better years than rivera did in 1996, because he was used more (7th and 8th inning setup man and he cracked 100 innings) and wetteland was capable enough…seriously, do you remember what it was like to watch those damn games? the game was *done* if it got to the 7th. that was downright depressing to watch.
i think in the case of a tie, a starter is always more valuable. but seriously, just stare at his stats. and then stare at the postseason ones.
the eck called him “the best.” this from an MVP, 20-game winner, Hall of Famer, and possessor of a mustachio of infinite power. was the eck and abject failure as a starter? how about smoltz (besides this year for my boys, of course)? rivera wasn’t even a failure as a starter…he was very good in the minors, barely got a chance in his first year, was lights out from the bullpen and that was that.
the only thing that will change to role of the closer is for somebody to actually win without one. that experiment didn’t go so well for the sox. i would love to see teams actually use the closer when it matters (if the game is tied and the bases are loaded in the eighth, get your best available pitcher in there!) but it’s silly for you to double-down on “no way” when talking about the great mariano. can you imagine what it’s like to be a closer in new york? and then to do it brilliantly for well over a decade?
i mean,i keep forgetting i’m supposed to hate the guy. there’s no better pitcher in baseball. you can argue there’s more valuable ones if you must, but no one better.
ERA+ stats for relievers are irrelevent. They just don’t pitch enough innings. Not to take too much away from Rivera but by the simple fact that he doesn’t pitch too many innings and that it’s easier to be successful getting only three outs and never having to face hitters twice in the same game puts him out of the argument for best pitcher in the game.
The ERA+ stat for Greinke shouldn’t yet be put in a historical basis because there are too many starts left. A month ago, Dan Haren’s was over 200 but it’s fallen off a lot since then. It’s hard to keep it so high after so many innings.
The idea that Lincecum was having a Pedro like season was made before his level dropped a bit recently, as Joe pointed out. Prior to his slippage, he really was arguably trending to that kind of dominant season: he was on pace to strikeout over 300 guys, his ERA was in the low 2s and his ERA + was over 180. The strikeout numbers may be inflated a bit because of the pitchers but it’s not drastic; a lot of the times pitchers sacrifice so pitchers don’t even have the opportunity to strike them out and they are a lot of no.9 hitters in the AL that too will strikeout with regularity against Lincecum.
[...] four games with the Royals, the worst team in the American League at 48-78. KC-based Joe Posnanski calls this the worst Royals team he’s ever seen, and Pos has been watching awful Royals’ teams for a decade. So that’s a staggering [...]
I agree with jay. Zack’s definitely the best pitcher in the AL this year, but if he can’t win the Cy Young, I sure as heck hope Mariano wins, since it seems most of the other Cy Young hopefuls are pitching themselves out of contention.
Who knows…if Beckett and Halladay continue to pitch terribly, Zack may end up being the last man standing after all.
jay,
agree that mariano is good in his one inning/game over 50 games role that is important in these days
but it simply is NOT comparable to a starting pitcher, it just isn’t.
not having to face more than a few batters a game makes a HUGE difference.
you can certainly call him the best closer or reliever in baseball, but sorry, he’s not the best PITCHER.
it would be like comparing a pinch hitter to a position player. if you had a guy who hit .400 in 80 PA but couldn’t field or run, he’s be great, sure, but you couldn’t call him the best hitter in baseball, let alone the best position player in baseball.
and as for “hate” – i got no dog in that fight, being a NL grrrrl my own self.
For those who think Greinke shouldn’t win because he hasn’t faced NYY or Boston:
Here are the AL candidates quality of batters faced for the season, listed by OPS:
Beckett .769
Greinke .760
Verlander .767
Hernandez .760
Sabathia .753
Halladay .773
I’m sorry, but that argument doesn’t hold water – no way in the world these miniscule differences can account for a FULL RUN better ERA that Greinke has over Verlander, Beckett, and Sabathia.
not to beat a dead horse (i still hear faint whinnying)…
yeah, era+ might not be perfect for a reliever…but you pick any possible starters-relievers pitching stat and he’s tops. but the fact that mariano usually comes in to start an inning, with bases empty (as stupid as that might be) makes it more relevant, than say a specialist who make not give up earned, but a lot of inherited. and the fact that he has, on aggregate, the lowest ERA+ ever, all-time, probablymeans “something.”
like, for instance, that he’s unhittable. for his career–righties have a .600 OPS. lefties, .517. (total, .556). he’s struck out nearly one batter per inning pitched (8.3 per 9). he’s probably led the league in broken bats despite pitching about 70 innings per year…it’s not like people don’t know what’s coming. manny, for instance, faced him for years and generally couldn’t do a flippin’ thing about the same pitches he saw over, and over, and over again.
being a sox fan, and having been stuck in nyc for years with only yankees games to watch, i’ve had the chance to see the guy a lot. too much, actually. i just don’t think the average fan understands how dominant he’s been. no one has dominated hitters as consistently as he has — maybe in history. as in, “ever.”
a closer isn’t comparable to a pitch hitter. the game is to score as may runs as possible, and prevent them. letting your best batter hit once (maybe) per game would be lunacy, based on that. but given that a pitcher can only pitch every fifth game if he starts, the logic of being able to pitch somebody for less innings, but every 2 or so games, in important spots, has much more face validity.
okay, so the way closers are used is probably stupid, and volumes have been written about it…the definition of “important spots” is all wrong. i think they should be used the way that joe page was in the late ’40s, or bruce sutter was.
but, even given that, there’s one pitcher in baseball that, for the past 15 years, batters have had a harder time hitting off than any other pitcher of the era, and arguably in history — #42. yes, he does it in one- and occassionally two- inning increments. but a lot of those innings were in the postseason as well…guess who has the most consecutive scoreless innings pitched in playoff history?
and anecdotally speaking, go walk the streets of cleveland loudly saying “jose mesa” over and over again and see if they agree that closers aren’t important. if ‘97 jose mesa (head case) was ‘95 jose mesa (mariano-esque), they likely win the series.
it would be like telling people in buffalo that kickers aren’t important.
I’m sorry.
Did you say “Cy Young candidates Scott Feldman”?
Are you feeling OK?
It sounds like he should be playing shortstop on his off-days. But then it wouldn’t help him. If he pitched and played shortstop simultaneously, could the Royals have 2 DHs?
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The thing is, Rivera throws one pitch. Over and over again. Same pitch. Now it’s a great pitch, but it isn’t unhittable. It’s not like a 102 mph fast ball, or a knuckler, where every pitch is different. Rivera’s cut fastball has breaks in the same direction every time, with variations in distance and velocity.
Now the few times Rivera has stuggled have tended to be against teams that have seen him a lot. Given that he has one incredible pitch that most guys get to see no more than 4-5 times in a game, one has to wonder: would he be effective the second time around? The third time around? His record says not. His record says that after enough looks, maybe 5, maybe 8, maybe a dozen, folks adjust to the break and then hit him, and hit him pretty hard. His first season he had 10 starts and an ERA of 5.51, ERA+ of 84. He hasn’t started since, nor had an ERA+ under 187.
So I’ll give Rivera lots of credit. I’ll even agree that he’s the best reliever of all time. But move him out of the short stint and he’d be below average. There are reasons why the Yankees are starting Joba and not Mariano. It takes a guy like Maddux or Pedro or Koufax (in my lifetime) to get atop my list of best all time pitchers.
rivera’s cutter is actually better than any of the 100-MPH-or-in-that-vicinity fastballs out there. plenty of relievers throw “cheese” but rivera’s is more like trying to hit the cow–it’s “heavy.” and it “mooooo(ve)s.” okay, that was an atrocity against humor.
if one pitch made a guy the greatest reliever of all time, it’s on the short list of the greatest pitches ever. (i love reading people’s takes on that subject…i wonder if joe’s ever written one? )
further, it’s kind of silly to say things that have said here like “if people had more chances to hit him, they would!” and “move him out of the short stint, he’d be below average.” c’mon, we obviously don’t know that–unless you’ve got some dr. manhattan bayesian-probability-master type abilities going on (in which case, i don’t want to piss you off, lest you inform me of my future’s exact time-of-death, like the cyclops in Krull). he was a starter for a brief blip, and moved to the bullpen, where his “one pitch” approach has made him the best reliever of all time. he might have been a great starter…pedro wasn’t really “pedro” until year 6, and “pedro” is the (if I’m being honest) “best.”
and here comes the master of the obvious: if no one can hit a pitch, why the hell would he bother with more pitches?!?!? (and how can you say it’s not as good as a freaking knuckleball…the point is that he has perfect control, everyone knows it’s coming, what it’s going to do, and they still can’t hit it!!! that’s like some crazy voodoo…it’s like a gyroball that actually “is,” for criminy’s sake! )
rivera actually hasn’t *really* struggled against any team. the best team OPS against him is .676 (Angels). The Red Sox are 6-12 against him, 2.96 ERA, under 1 hit per inning, almost 1 k per inning…and they’ve slugged .337 against him. and on and on. And that would qualify as “great” success versus the complete impotency of many other clubs. i’m pretty confident that a regression model would say that familiarity only explains a small bit of the variance in his performance stats…but i have spent way too much time on this already, to the point that i am 99% certain that 99% of you would classify this as “forensic narcissism.”
Okay, I can’t resist some expert testimonials (from 7/21/09 washington post):
“Derek Jeter has called him the greatest player he has ever played with. Andy Pettitte said Rivera “has literally dominated the game” like Michael Jordan on a basketball court or Tiger Woods on a golf course. ”
and come to think of it, all this talk of just one pitch is wrong anyway…
“He’s got two different cutters,” Ken Griffey Jr. of the Seattle Mariners said. “One that’s good, and then he’s got one that’s devastating.”
[...] Having a nice little Saturday: In Zack Greinke’s last two starts, he has given up two runs in 17 innings and has racked up 20 strikeouts while giving up just two walks. Luckily, he won both games, which is never a given with the team behind him. Greainke is leading the AL in ERA by more than half a run, and his won-loss record would be much more impressive if he played for anyone other than the hapless Royals. Even so, he’s a serious Cy Young candidate, and considering that his performance is coming in the offense-heavy American League, Joe Posnanski writes that there’s a serious case to make for Greinke as the best pitcher in baseball. [...]
[...] Having a nice little Saturday: In Zack Greinke's last two starts, he has given up two runs in 17 innings and has racked up 20 strikeouts while giving up just two walks. Luckily, he won both games, which is never a given with the team behind him. Greainke is leading the AL in ERA by more than half a run, and his won-loss record would be much more impressive if he played for anyone other than the hapless Royals. Even so, he's a serious Cy Young candidate, and considering that his performance is coming in the offense-heavy American League, Joe Posnanski writes that there's a serious case to make for Greinke as the best pitcher in baseball. [...]
[...] Having a nice little Saturday: In Zack Greinke’s last two starts, he has given up two runs in 17 innings and has racked up 20 strikeouts while giving up just two walks. Luckily, he won both games, which is never a given with the team behind him. Greainke is leading the AL in ERA by more than half a run, and his won-loss record would be much more impressive if he played for anyone other than the hapless Royals. Even so, he’s a serious Cy Young candidate, and considering that his performance is coming in the offense-heavy American League, Joe Posnanski writes that there’s a serious case to make for Greinke as the best pitcher in baseball. [...]
[...] Having a nice little Saturday: In Zack Greinke’s last two starts, he has given up two runs in 17 innings and has racked up 20 strikeouts while giving up just two walks. Luckily, he won both games, which is never a given with the team behind him. Greainke is leading the AL in ERA by more than half a run, and his won-loss record would be much more impressive if he played for anyone other than the hapless Royals. Even so, he’s a serious Cy Young candidate, and considering that his performance is coming in the offense-heavy American League, Joe Posnanski writes that there’s a serious case to make for Greinke as the best pitcher in baseball. [...]
[...] Zack’s line: 8 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K. Season ERA is a preposterously low (especially for the AL) 2.22. Can you imagine what his ERA would be if he got to face the Royals offense five times a year? [...]
[...] the Twins bullpen, it was Dusty Hughes who technically “lost”) despite him being the best pitcher currently alive and playing professional baseball. And THAT could very likely be the reason the Minnesota Twins make the playoffs at such long odds. [...]
[...] groundswell has been growing (budding? Swelling? What do “groundswells” do, exactly?) in the race for this year’s American [...]
[...] Posnanski loves [...]
[...] Joe Posnanski » Blog Archive » Zack Quote: [...]