Mauer Pauer Going Sauer?
Posted: August 21st, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 33 Comments »
This is late, but Thursday Joe Mauer went 1-for-4 in a brutal 11-1 loss for the Twins. The batting average is .378. And the Twins lineup — without Justin Morneau or Jason Kubel — looks downright ugly.
Mentioned briefly that the other night I arrived in New York and — for reasons that are probably too complicated to discuss here — ended up getting a ride to the hotel in a car service called “Cousin Vinny” (Slogan: “No one knows New York City better than us”). The term “car service” probably exaggerates the overall experience — you won’t find Cousin Vinny online. The car we rode in had a trunk that would not close, no air-conditioning, a front seat loaded up with towels and about half the trip was taken up by Cousin Vinny explaining the various car problems he’s had in the last year or so. Apparently, part of the charm of riding with Cousin Vinny is the feeling of gratefulness you get when the car does not break down in Queens.
The other half of the trip was spent on Cousin Vinny’s meandering thoughts about the true nature of Phil Simms and the actor Chris Noth (they’re both jerks), the Obama health care plan (against it), Michael Vick (mixed views since Cousin Vinny has 13 cats, four parrots and wants dogs), the safety of taxi cabs (you’re taking your life in your hands), the virtues of a woman jogger (“Va voom!”), John Gotti’s son (he used to be a real $&#*$&), the disadvantages of buying a high priced condo (“a million bucks so people can drive by and see you in your underwear“), the strong points of military service (’When I was in the Navy, oh man, the women …”), the mysteries of love (“I’m done with women … one tried to have me killed,”), various thoughts about law enforcement (“Some of those guys are real nice to me …”) and, of course, the Yankees. It was a pretty long ride.
Cousin Vinny made certain to explain that he’s not really a sports fan, he doesn’t have time to be — what with work and cats and various threats on his life. But he will check in every now and again. But at one point he started to talk about the Yankees, especially Jeter and what’s the guy’s name — Mascara?
“Teixeira.”
Yeah. That guy. How good is that guy?
With Cousin Vinny there wasn’t really much time to go into detail because, before long, he was off talking about tax law — but it reminded me that I’ve been wanting to make this point about the MVP Award. It seems to me that, through the years — and more than anything else — the MVP vote has been about “big hits.” Yes, that has often come in the shape of RBIs. More often than not, the MVP has been the player with:
1. The most RBIs.
2. On a team that makes the playoffs (or comes awfully close).
Of course, it isn’t ALWAYS like that. Most of the time, yes. But not always. Sometimes, the voters collectively choose a player like Dustin Pedroia or Jimmy Rollins or Ichiro, a player who scores a lot of runs but doesn’t drive in all that many. The idea of “big hits” can be elastic. Mostly it’s about hits that drive in “important” runs — i.e. runs late in the game that have a decisive effect on the score. But we (and by we, I am referring to the Baseball Writers Association people who vote for the MVP awards) will occasionally determine that this year’s “big hits” are those which get a player on base and score those “important” runs.
But the theme remains the same: Big hits. That’s the story of the MVP. As far as I can tell, we have not chosen a single player as MVP based solely or mostly on his defense. Yes, on numerous occasions great defenders did win the MVP (Brooks Robinson, Willie Mays, Mike Schmidt, Johnny Bench, Roberto Clemente, on and on) but those guys all had great offensive seasons. Zoilo Versalles was, by accounts of the time, a great defensive shortstop in 1965 and might be the closest thing to defense winning an MVP award — but he led the league in runs scored. Pudge v2.0 won the MVP in 1999 despite having fifty fewer RBIs than MannyBManny, so defense might have been a tiebreaker there.
But smany of the greatest defenders of the last 40 years never won or came close to winning. Ozzie Smith never won an MVP — not even in 1987 when he certainly had a strong case. Dave Concepcion, Paul Blair, Mark Belanger, Frank White, Bill Mazeroski, Robbie Alomar never came especially close. And I’m not saying they should have come close — I’m simply making the point. Big hits almost always win MVP awards.
So … that’s nothing new. But here’s the question: Who is likely to get those big hits? Well, you no doubt know about Bill James’ famed Defensive Spectrum. That is basically his list of positions from hardest to play to easiest. It goes like so:
Hardest
Catcher
Shortstop
Second baseman
Center fielder
Third baseman
Right fielder
Left fielder
First baseman
Easiest
Obviously designated hitter is below first baseman … Bill made many many points about the defensive spectrum. He made the point that players, as they get older, will tend to move down the spectrum (shortstop to center field, third base to first base, centerfield to one of the corner outfield spots, etc). He made the point that bad teams will, almost naturally, pile up players on the bottom of the defensive spectrum — the Kansas City Royals, to make the example, came into this year with about 12 first basemen and one semi-legit shortstop.
Another one of the points he made — a point that I want to reiterate here — is that the defensive spectrum is also an OFFENSIVE spectrum. Because, generally speaking, the easier position you play, the more that is expected of you offensively. Well, it only makes sense: The easier position, the larger pool of players you have of players capable of playing it. Many, many, many more players are good enough defensively to play first base in the big leagues than, say, shortstop. Bigger pool — more opportunity to find good hitters.*
This isn’t just theory either. Here are the 2009 positions from lowest to highest OPS.
Catcher: .719
Shortstop: .721
Second baseman: .754
Center fielder: .756
Third baseman: .761
Left fielder: .779
Right fielder: .793
First baseman: .843
Amazing, ain’t it? It is almost precisely the same order as the defensive spectrum — the only difference is that left fielder and right fielder are swapped. Well, again, it makes perfect sense, doesn’t it? The easier the position to play defensively, the more you would expect offensively. Sure, you would love for Adam Dunn to be a brilliant centerfielder. You would love for Adam Everett to punch up a .400 on-base percentage and .500 slugging. And there have been a small collection of players through the years who were brilliant left-spectrum defenders and brilliant hitters. Those are the first ballot, no doubt, Hall of Famers. But there are so few of those kinds of players that the Hall of Fame is also populated with more players who could either hit the hell out of the ball or field the hell out of it, but not both.
OK, so what’s the point? Well, look at the MVP percentages the last 50 years.
Hardest five in defensive spectrum (c, ss, 2b, 3b, cf): 44%
Easiest three in spectrum (lf, rf, 1b): 56%
Right. Your MVPs — more often than not — come from those easier to play positions. That’s because the players in those positions tend to be better offensively … and tend to get more of those big hits. And, again over 50 years, here’s your MVP spectrum, from fewest to most.
Catcher
Second base
Center fielder
Third base
Shortstop
Right fielder
Left fielder
First baseman
No, it doesn’t go precisely along defensive spectrum lines. Shortstops (because of Ripken and A-Rod, mainly) have been pretty well represented in the MVP voting. But every other position is in its the precise order of the spectrum. Yes, big hits.
So, where does this leave Mark Teixera? Well, he plays the easiest position on the field. Defensive statistics aside, I think we’re all in agreement that he plays it well … but that doesn’t change the basic truth. First base remains the easiest position on the field. And because of this: First basemen are expected to swat. And first basemen do swat. There are 11 first basemen in the game with 24 home runs or more. There are eight eight with 75 or more RBIs. There are seven than have a better OPS+ than Teixeira — and five more that are within 15 OPS+ points.
In fact, I think it is fair to say that, offensively, there are probably ten first baseman — TEN first baseman — who would give you roughly the same offensive production as Teixeira has this year. That’s one third of all teams. It’s about one HALF of the first basemen who play every day. Don’t believe me? Why don’t we look at them using the 2OPS statistic mentioned in The Book — it’s twice on-base percentage plus slugging divided by three. This gives a pretty fair estimate of a player’s value so far.
Albert Pujols, .517
Prince Fielder, .477
Kevin Youkilis, .465
Adrian Gonzalez, .456
Miguel Cabrera, .451
Lance Berkman, .451
Justin Morneau, .442
Mark Teixeira, .440
Derrek Lee, .434
Todd Helton, .432
Kendry Moralex, .426
Heck, you COULD throw in Russell Branyan (.407) and Carlos Pena (.398) since those two guys would probably make mincemeat of the new Yankee Stadium. And Billy Butler’s really hitting in KC … .424 2OPS the last 62 games.
Or you can do it the 1970s way. Here are eight average, home runs, RBI lines for first basemen … without looking it up, pick out Tex’s.
1. .318, 39, 105
2. .307, 32, 108
3. .298, 28, 94
4. .334, 24, 72
5. .268, 32, 98
6. .283, 31, 89
7. .302, 27, 81
8. .295, 24, 83
You see what I mean? Teixeira is having a very good year. But, in my view, he’s not having a SPECIAL year. I say this at about 10:22 p.m. Eastern on Friday, and I did just happen to go online to look at tonight’s boxscores and I see that tonight Tex is 3-for-4 with a homer and three RBIs. So you don’t have to type in that comment, unless you just want to do it.
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If Mauer didn’t win the MVP in ‘06 he won’t win it now. That’s the way those guys vote. His level of expectation with the writers has already been established. Even if he ends up at .393 or something the Twins aren’t going to win a horrible division so by their definition he couldn’t have been “that” valuable. Even though the Yankees could have made the playoffs without Tex.
That is the real story about the MVP voting, and one I would like to see explored sometime. I wasn’t surprised that Mo Vaughn won in ‘95 because they’d already decided even before Belle ended up with his great statistical year (50 HR-50 2B). The Indians won by “too” much.
Please, please run the same numbers for catchers.
Kinda sneaky looking at MVPs from the last 50 years, since going 60 years back would’ve included Campanella and Berra’s 3 apiece. The voters in the old days had more love for catchers…don’t even get me started on Mickey Cochrane over Gehrig in 1934 when Gehrig WON THE TRIPLE CROWN (although that was a ’someone on the best team has to win’ vote).
Joe – can’t help but notice you didn’t include the great Daniel Murphy’s line: .253, 7, 40… about time he gets some respect among first basemen! That kid is a gamer! His uniform is always dirty! And he’s clutch!
Tex went 3-4 tonight wi–
Oh.
Never mind…..
The key thing I think is that some of the voters look at a non-playoff season as pretty useless. If the Twins end up winning 75 games and you tell them “Well without Mauer, with Redmond or someone catching, they would have won about 65 games” This type of voter would say “Yeah well so what? It’s still a losing season.”
Even if Teixeira contributes LESS wins to the Yanks than Mauer does to the Twins, this type of voter can believe that and still vote for Teix because supposedly the Yankee wins are more important.
it’s a BS argument but one a lot of people buy. They love triple crown stats but even more than that they love guys on winning teams playing meaningful games.
If The Twins were in 1st place in the central or even in serious contention I don’t think we’re even having this discussion. It’s not New York bias or triple crown stats bias but bias against giving the MVP to a guy on a losing team.
Sometimes guys can get around it like A-Rod in ‘03 or Dawson iin ‘87 but the “Well they could have lost without him argument” is really hard to overcome.
Another component in the MVP voting, I think, is that a player will get bonus points if his contribution is new or unexpected. Tex is seen as a “difference maker” because he is new to the team, even though objectively one could say Jeter is having a better year (let alone Mauer). I think of Ichiro in 2001 in this category as well.
I have been posting this around the internet, but:
2) Disqualify DH’s
3) Disqualify non-playoff teams
3) Disaulify Manny Ramirez.
Going back to 2000, the guy remaining with the most RBI’s wins 6 of 9 AL MVP’s. I don’t know how well it fares past then, but will investigate soon. The exceptions:
-2001, they chose Ichiro while the predictor picked teammate Boone (who was 3rd.)
-2003, somehow all the playoff teams had no RBI guys (leader Matsui at 107,) so they gave it to A-Rod
-2008, they gave it to Pedroia. Predictor had Morneau who hilariously finished 2nd.
I guess it won’t work for 2000 (I rod,) but I’d bet it works for 99 and 98. Anyway, just wanted to throw that out there when I saw your post.
PS: The Predictor guesses, well, guess who right now…
So what’s the aggregate OPS for catchers without Mauer?
[...] Joe Posnanski » Blog Archive » Mauer Pauer Going Sauer? By Joe Posnanski Why don't we look at them using the 2OPS statistic mentioned in The Book — it's twice on-base percentage plus slugging divided by three. This gives a pretty fair estimate of a player's value so far. Albert Pujols, .517. Prince Fielder … Joe Posnanski – http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/ [...]
The Cousin Vinny ride sounds sort of fun as long as you are eventually delivered safely to your destination. So, we’ve got a “no” vote on Obamacare from Cousin Vinny. I assume he is also a skeptic of cap & trade.
I think I may have tipped the guy rather nicely. A Navy man, too. Thank you for your service, Vinny!
That sounded like one helluva cab ride, Pos.
And this was post was incredible. I think it shows why the MVP voting is flawed.
You’re the man.
I believe that Marty Marion won an MVP almost entirely on the strength of his defense. This seems, however, to have been a unique occurence.
I was curious as to whether your cab driver, “Vinny” has private health insurance or is dependent upon on his government subsidized VA benefits (earned of course?).
Keep gov’ment out of my life? Easy to look the other way once you’re covered.
Sorry guys, some things have to be said regardless of the forum.
Nice year Tiex.
GREAT YEAR, Mauer.
Wake me up when Mauer thing is over…
You should include Votto. He was hurt for a bit, but even with his recent slump, he ranks with these guys.
it shows you how good first baseman are when Fielder or Howard don’t even make your list.
As far as RBIs, i still don’t know why Rollins didn’t get more RBI credit his MVP year. I know it’s considered a flawed stat on this site, but, he had 94…from the lead off position…in the national league. AS a shortstop.
“Bigger pool — more opportunity to find good hitters.*”
This Pozterisk was left incomplete. I hate when that happens.
VORP basically is a statistical measure of how “valuable” a player is, so if you trust the stat at all (I know there are many who don’t) then the best VORP should be MVP.
Over the past 14 years, the AL MVP has had the highest AL VORP 5 times. A couple of years the MVP was pretty close (2008 Pedroia, 2000 Giambi), but in half the years, VORP would say that the MVP shouldn’t have even sniffed the award (in 6 of those seasons, they shouldn’t have even finished in the top 10).
So let’s pretend VORP awarded MVP, not writers:
1. 2009 (at this point) would be Mauer, hands down. It’s not even close.
2. A-Rod would have 7 MVP awards, instead of 3.
3. Jeter would have 2, instead of zippo.
4. The “biggest” MVP travesties (Morneau, JuanGone, I-Rod) aren’t even really the biggest…Ichiro is.
So if you believe in VORP, then the MVP award is “right” half the time (throwing in rounding errors). The other half? Way off.
A specific examples: 1998. Juan Gone dominates the vote, getting 21 first-place votes the the runner up’s (Nomar) 5. Juan Gone had a great, great year (.997 OPS, and hard to ignore 157 RBIs). But if the baseball writers wanted to just vote for the biggest bat, Belle (who finished 8th) had a superior season (more/better runs, HRs, walks, OBP, SLG, etc.). And for Chrissakes, you have two shortstops (A-Rod, Nomar) that had roughly comparable offensive years. And even worse, you had a center fielder (Griffey) putting up extremely comparable stats. And even worse, all three of them were better at very difficult positions than JuanGone was at an easy one (I’m not even looking that one up). Good god, A-Rod even stole 46 bases that year. But JuanGone dominated the vote.
Random stat: Nomar hit .372, with .434 / .599/1.033 in 2000. And finished ninth in the voting. Holy crappoly.
One major plus to the way things are done: Most of us couldn’t bear to live in a world where A-Rod had seven MVPs. So the system’s got that going for it.
Year MVP VORP Better
2009 —– Mauer —–
2008 Pedroia A-Rod 1
2007 A-Rod A-Rod 0
2006 Morneau Jeter 12
2005 A-Rod A-Rod 0
2004 Guerrero Guerrero 0
2003 A-Rod A-Rod 0
2002 Tejada A-Rod 7
2001 Ichiro Giambi 13
2000 Giambi A-Rod 3
1999 I-Rod Jeter 10
1998 JuanGone Belle 8
1997 Griffey Griffey 0
1996 JuanGone A-Rod 12
1995 Mo V. Edgar M. 10
Admit it, you’re just keeping it going just so you can make up new puns that rhyme with Mauer, aren’t you?
Just an observation, but of your 10 first basemen you compare with Teixeira, four play in the NL Central (five of 11 if you include Votto’s .423 2OPS).
I thought you would go with:
Mauer Pauer Auetage.
Plus, Joe Mauer stinks.
Yeah, Marion was the one that came to mind for players that won the MVP with the glove–the year he won, he hit .267 with 6 homers and 63 RBIs and a 91 OPS+, all pretty much in line with the numbers he’d had in previous years, and didn’t make the top ten in any major offensive category.
For historical perspective, Marty Marion won the NL MVP in 1944. Many talented ballplayers were in the war effort at that time and not playing in MLB. That may have also had a determining factor in his winning the award. I would assume his great defense looked even better when compared to his colleagues of that period.
First the typo: “There are eight eight “. I mean, I wouldn’t want my famous blogger to get sneered at by the Sports Illustrated’s Senior Senior Writer’s Editor if this column were asked to be moved from the blog to the mag.
Second, just a side comment. Andre Ethier has the most walk off hits in baseball while also have the most homers and RBI for the Dodgers. Do I think he deserves the MVP? Hell no. Would I think he deserved the MVP if the Dodgers were an AL team (say, swapping with the Angels, both teams being fairly similar with great records but no clear MVP type): still hell no. But if big hits are meaningful, then he might get some notice.
Third, with all deference to Derrick at #3, there’s actually a REALLY good reason to go back 50 (or 51 or 48) years. It was 51 years ago that baseball moved to the west coast. If was 48 years ago that we had expansion. It seems to me that back in the 8 team league days, where everybody played 22 games against everybody else, catchers *really* got their due for learning opposing batters and contributing to the success of a pitching staff. And when travel was relatively straightforward (no coast to coast trips) the wear and tear of catchers seemed worse than anybody else. Then as teams played fewer and fewer games against each other, catchers seemed less important, even though in this internet era I’d say catchers are even more an intellectual position than ever. And with all those long flights, everybody complains about the miles, reducing the extra stress catcher took.
Okay, I’ve gone and challeneged myself to look things up. In 1955, the NL champion Dodgers had MVP Campy, and also had the best ERA in the NL despite playing in the bandbox known as Ebbets Field. In 1953 they were 3rd in ERA, also won the pennant by a huge margin, and Campy led the team in RBI while finishing a bit behind Snider in OPS+. In 1951, with a playoff, the only Giant worth considering for MVP was Bobby Thompson, who is listed in baseball reference as a Utility player with no fixed position. Again, Campy had more RBI and a better OPS+.
Yogi Berra’s three MVP seasons came in years when the Yankees were 3rd, 3rd, and 1st in ERA. They even included one season where they finished second, behind the Indians amazing 111 victories. So why did Yogi win? In all three seasons, he led the Yankees in RBI. But in 1954, Larry Doby had one more RBI than Berra while playing for the team that set the record for best winning percentage in history. So RBI is not the sole arbiter. And then I think I spotted what is: games played.
In all six of the 1950s CMVPs (catcher MVPs) the catcher spent more than 140 games behind the plate. That’s more than 90% of the games squatting: remember, back then the season was only 154 games long. Johnny Bench in 1970 was close (139 games behind the plate), 141 in 1971 (when he neither won nor deserved the MVP) and then only 129 in 1972. But it was impossible to ignore him leading the league in homers and RBI. Pudge in 1999 won his MVP catching 141 games. Mauer? He hasn’t caught 140 games in one season ever. He also has never led the league in HR or RBI.
And I think that’s the reason. #2 on the list of MVP qualifications is number of games played. The three MVP catchers did so with 140+ games caught, or the equivalent of 146+ games caught today. But today’s manager is smarter than to ruin the knees of his MVP catcher by making him squat that much. Mike Piazza was by far the best hitter on the Dodgers, and twice had 140 games behind the plate. But those were not his two best seasons by any comparison. His two best seasons he was given more time off as the Dodgers favored quality over quantity. And after four straight seasons of over use* he dropped off considerably. His career peak came at an atypically early 28.
Why do I say overuse? Look at his batting stats by month. August is his worst month, followed by April, then September, all under .800. The others are all well over .800. Er, I’m going by memory on June, though. For some reason baseball-reference isn’t listing June for Piazza. Why the heck is that? Okay, I went to double check my memory on a year by year basis and in 1996, June was one of only two months with an OPS over 1 for Piazza. It was also over 1 for 1995, and it was over 1.2 and his best month of the season in 1994 and 1997, when I stopped looking any more. I have reported the bug to b-r.com.
Anyway, those old time catchers used to catch more. I’m not saying Mauer won’t win MVP this year, but he won’t lead the league in HR, in RBI, he won’t catch 140 games, and he won’t be on a playoff team. He deserves it, but he’d be likelier to win it batting .330 with 105 RBI and 30 HR right now. Batting average does not draw the votes of the other triple crown categories.
Gak! So wrapped up in tracking catchers I didn’t proof myself. Obviously meant FAVORITE, not FAMOUS. Sorry about that.
Just following up. B-ref found June after I reported it missing. Mike Piazza’s worst OPS month is September/Oct, at .888. Then April/March, and .897. The August at .909. Then July at .921. May is at .939 and June at .975. Sure looks like a hitter who wears down as the season progresses. Pudge Rodgriguez has a HUGE dropoff in August and September, to .759 and .736; every other month is .811 or above. Johnny Bench’s calendar exactly matches Piazza’s. Paul LoDuca also faded big time. Campy’s worst month was September, although his August was good. But his first half was 98 points better than his second half.
Yogi Berra is the exception. But remember, it will tend to be normal for all position players on good teams to hit better in September. They will tend to face more call ups, guys not good enough to be on the roster earlier. They will also be given more off days, especially against tougher opposing pitchers for them, once they have clinched the playoff spot.
Anyway, I think even if Albert Pujols were catching, he’d miss some games, and the later in the season, the more time he’d spend at 1B (or DH) instead of behind the plate. The dropoff is pretty significant for catchers, and smart managers will try and keep MVP catchers rested, even if they don’t win MVPs. Thus catchers are catching less than ever, and that’s why they’re not winning MVPs they deserve.
Nice Branyan reference. He hasn’t gotten enough love this year.
The book business must really be on the ropes if you’re taking Cousin Vinny’s car service in from the airport.
What about Tex’s home ballpark? Any pull-hitting lefthander can rake there. Mauer isn’t a pull hitter, but his teammate is more of one. Morneau’s stats in 4 games there: 3HR, 3 doubles, 18 TB, 0.563 BA, 0.650 OBP. Granted that’s a small sample, but it would be a pretty good home MONTH for a lot of people.
For an apples to apples comparison, you really have to deflate Tex’s stats to reflect this advantage.
Dan,
No, they really don’t.
In response to #25- perhaps you have not looked at Mauers other stats- despite missing the entire month of June he is on track to hit 30 homeruns, and 105 RBIS- the stats you indicate would make him a better candidate. If I read what you wrote correctly you are saying he would be better off dropping 50 points off his batting average?
Joe, if we love superb offensive seasons from players on the top rungs of the defensive spectrum, why no love for Hanley Ramirez?
He’s running away with the NL batting title, he’s fourth in the league in OPS (behind three first basemen), and he leads all of baseball (yes, even Mauer) in runs above replacement level.