Another Shauer of Mauer Pauer 8.19
Posted: August 19th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 118 Comments »
So, this time, Joe Mauer went three for five with two homers, three RBIs, two runs scored and led the Twins to a comeback victory. But, it is true that on his third hit he ran into an out. And you know, an MVP should be do the little things, right?
Mark Teixeira, meanwhile, went 0-for-4 — his batting average is now officially 100 points lower than Mauer’s — but he did have what was apparently a crucial walk, and he probably made several decisive defensive gems in a Yankees win. All of which leads to today’s question posed by several Brilliant Readers: “Come on, aren’t you overreacting to one Tweet by Tyler Kepner? I mean, seriously dude, you’ve made your point.”
Answer: Dude, OF COURSE we’re overreacting. That’s what is fun about it! The idea is not to prove that Joe Mauer should be MVP over Mark Texeira. The idea is to CRUSH that goofiness and leave no trace of it on the pages of human history. Of course, I’m not the one doing the crushing. Mauer is.
And that’s the point. Mauer — since we started this crazy Mauer Pauer thing — is 13 for 22 with four home runs. The slash numbers, in case you want them, is 591/.625/1.182. You think we’re going to stop NOW with him hitting like this? Absolutely not.
Oh, one more thing: Joe Mauer now has a 193 OPS+. Albert Pujols has a 191 OPS+. Just saying.
Mauer to date
363 at-bats
139 hits
Batting average: .383 average.
What he’s got to do the rest of the way
162 at-bats
71 hits
Batting average: .438
Final numbers
525 at-bats
210 hits
Batting average: .400
Loading ...
Overreacting?? Like most Yankees’ fan do?
LOL
Joe Mauer is out of his mind. No one can hit like this, least of all a catcher. Unreal.
I’ve been enjoying reading your Mauer blogs the last few days.
I know he is a couple 0-5 nights away from this not being an option, but is there anyone else where you think that it is possible for them to hit .440 for a month? With Joe, you think it IS possible. Heck, he could cool off a bit.
He is clearly the best hitter in baseball. If we were talking about Jeter or ARob going for his 3rd batting title in 5 years, we wouldn’t be having a discussion.
i’ve enjoyed your blog for a long time. i’ve enjoyed the banny posts, the yuni posts, but these mauer updates take the cake. kudos.
Dammit man, if you’re going to continuously dig on Teixeira you need to at least spell his name right.
The extra “i” is for intangibles!
“He is clearly the best hitter in baseball.”
There is this one guy on St. Louis…
I for one find these Mauer Pauer updates even more entertaining than the Yuni Watch, and if he’s going to keep hitting, why not keep them going?
Umm, could you hold off until Monday – he is singlehandedly destroying my fantasy team this week, and I am not happy about it!
Absolutely. Do not by any means stop this. The world needs to know. The world needs to understand. And then the world needs to relentlessly beaten about the head and ears with it over and over and over and over and over until even Mr. Posnanski’s colleagues who remain in the “they could’ve finished under .500 without him!” camp are forced to relinquish their precious little insanities.
Mauer is clearly the best hitter in baseball *this year.* He’s got about eight years of this before he can knock those two words off, but for 2009, even that one guy in St. Louis is in his rear view now.
There’s a reason why Mr. Mauer is known as Baby Jesus in Minnesota. It was not that long ago that we had Johan, Santana, Randy Moss, and KG and it was cold, dark, and lonely when they were shipped out. But, now we have Purple Jesus, Baby Jesus, and the man formerly known as Brett Favre. Life is fairly good up here right now, even if the Twins have squandered a golden opportunity this year.
@ Jenny & Bill,
Joe Mauer is clearly not the best hitter in baseball. He is clearly the AL MVP, though.
While Mauer has a slightly higher wOBA than Pujols he is behind him in Batting Runs and WPA. It is actually a toss up between the two and in my opinion Pujols will be more valuable OFFENSIVELY than Mauer at the end of the season.
Also, cool stat. Mauer’s BABIP is .392 compared to Pujols’ .288. There is a whole lot of luck in that BABIP.
I will admit to knowing nothin’ about nothin’, and I’m not saying it’s right, but wouldn’t a lot of people with an MVP vote pick his Canadian teammate over Mauer if they were picking a Twin? Morneau’s hitting close to .300 with more home runs, rbi’s and runs scored. I know Mauer’s played less games and he’s got a better average and on base and slugging percentages and he’s a catcher, but wouldn’t a lot of voters depend mostly on the old school stats? I’m not saying it’s right, I’m just saying.
@11
Batting Runs and WPA are counting stats. You do realize that Mauer missed a month to start the season, right?
I was watching the highlights last night thinking, “I cant wait to see what Joe has written tomorrow.”
I was sure it would be something good. Thanks for not letting me down
@ Brian,
You are right, some voters will almost certainly be swayed by RsBI, Runs, and HR’s. If you were responding to my post I apologize. I should have said Mauer clearly deserves the AL MVP. Who wins however is a crapshoot. See Morneau’s MVP award.
Teixeira’s “key walk” was an IBB. I’m not inclined to give him too much credit for the opposing manager being stupid.
Brian you need to take another look at Mauers’ stats and keep in mind he was out a month.
@Brian Hugh: Besides having astronomical numbers, Mauer is doing it while playing some really good defense at catcher. Morneau is great but what Mauer is doing is unprecedented.
@12
Ordinarily, you are right. See Mauer’s placement relative to Morneau’s in 2006 and 2008 MVP votes — in each season, Mauer was the more valuable of the two (and in my opinion, the MVP of the entire league). But, Mauer is hitting almost .400 and that’s such a shiny object that even members of the BBWAA would be distracted enough by that to realize that RBI totals may not be the best indicator of who’s most valuable this year.
During the strike year, Jeff Bagwell hit .368 and yet finished 26 points behind Tony Gwynn for the batting title. It appears Ichiro (.365) may end up playing the role of Bagwell this season.
@ SBG,
Counting stats can and are extremely valuable–especially more independent ones like batting runs and WPA (as opposed to RsBI and Runs).
Also, are you suggesting Mauer should get credit for missing a month of the season? Did the stats that Pujols put up over that period not help his team win?
A nice way to look at this could be WAR at fangraphs. It incorporates the value of player for staying in the lineup. If you look at WAR and don’t positionally adjust (since the argument is about the best hitter) Pujols comes out ahead.
Regardless, Mauer is having a phenomenal year and rightfully deserves the AL MVP.
Matt: Mauer also plays with the big boys while Pujols plays in the Senior PGA I mean Circuit. And luck doesn’t drive hitters’ BABIP nearly as much as once thought; Mauer’s career BABIP is 28 points higher than Pujols’, and Pujols is hitting many more fly balls and many fewer line drives than is his custom. There’s not as much luck in there as you might think.
There’s a lot of time left, but right now, Mauer is absolutely the best hitter in the majors. The statement that he’s “clearly not” such is just false.
@Kermit:
“The extra “i” is for intangibles!”
I snorted coffee on that line. Nice.
Matt@21: I don’t think counting stats have any place in determining who “the best hitter” is. If you’re talking about who had the most impact or whatever, then sure. But Dick Allen was certainly a *better hitter* than, say, Pete Rose. So maybe we’re just looking at two different questions.
Here is my thought on MVP – it’s the Most Valuable Player, regardless of team – the example: if 3 people open their wallets, one has a $50 bill and two singles, the second has three $20’s and the third has two 20’s and two 10’s, the *most valuable* is the $50, even though the first guy has the least money…
Jerry-NJ: that’s a great way of putting the point I’ve been trying to get people to understand for years now…totally stealing that…
@Matt
Part of the reason that Mauer’s BABIP is so high can be traced to his HR/flyball rate, which has taken a major jump this season, from 10.6% for his career to 28.3% this season. That suggests that he’s hitting the ball harder than he has in the past, and although his line drive % is approximately the same as it’s always been, he’s hitting those line drives harder, making it easier for them to become hits.
Matt @ 11 & 21:
You start by saying that Mauer is not clearly the best hitter in baseball, and then you use counting stats in your reasoning.
That was the complaint, I think.
Yes, you are right, batting runs and WPA are useful in determining value, but you are dead wrong to conflate overall value (as in offensive production) with batting prowess.
Mauer is, right now, the best hitter in baseball. Frankly, this is one area where batting average is still useful: The difference between 383 and 321 is immense.
Maybe you would be more comfortable if we called him the best pure hitter. I don’t know.
@21
Nope, not suggesting that Mauer get credit for missing a month, just merely pointing out that counting stats (even WPA — which has plenty of problems and Batting Runs) need to be taken in context.
Also, let’s see Albert crouch behind the plate every night, catch 100 major league pitches or more with his left hand, get balls fouled off his body, and see how he hits. I’m not saying that Albert is anything less than fantabulous, but what Mauer is doing is ridiculous. And ridiculous > fantabulous.
Instead of campaigning for an out of towner for MVP – which is inherently an award based on the value of a player to a team – shouldn’t you campaign to get the best pitcher in the American League the Cy Young award? Greinke is bound to lose that award based on the fact that he is on an awful team when the award itself should based entirely on individual performance.
@ Bill,
You make very good points about the league each player plays in. While the AL Central isn’t exactly the AL East the AL is certainly stronger than the NL.
However, look at the flip side of BABIP. Mauer is actually hitting LESS line drives than his career average and more fly balls. His BABIP is 43 points above his career average, though. His HR rate has gone up but so has Pujols’. Luck is playing a factor.
Also, I think you have a problem separating counting stats. They are not all evil. There is a huge difference between batting runs and RsBI as a metric to judge a hitter. The main knocks on counting stats is that they are not appropriate to use to compare hitters of different generations nor are they that predictive of future performance. We do not have those problems here since we are comparing two current players.
Furthermore my statement that Mauer is “clearly not the best hitter” in the majors was in response to someone saying that he “clearly” is the best hitter. I see no stats that “clearly” show Mauer is the best hitter in baseball. Even OPS+ ,as Joe pointed out (which accounts for Park and league adjustments), is practically identical between Pujols and Mauer.
I think Mauer and Pujols right now are 1a and 1b in terms of hitters in the majors. AND going forward, I will put my money on Pujols to separate himself from Mauer.
Steve:
I wholeheartedly agree!!!!!!!!! Please, Joe, use your highly trained powers of persuasion to lobby for Grienke as AL Cy Young. Just get the conversation started. He has to be in the race and lose a few times befor he is taken seriously, so lets start the process NOW.
Matt:
Fair enough, but I think you meant “not clearly” rather than “clearly not.”
I don’t think it’s possible to hit .380 in the majors without a fair amount of luck. I just don’t think it makes up for all the other differences here.
No, sure, counting stats like that are fine. If you want to say that Pujols’ counting stats have made him a more valuable hitter than Mauer, that’s cool. I think it’s a semantic issue: “best hitter” to me is qualitative, not quantitative, hence the Dick Allen vs. Pete Rose example. AB for AB, season for season, Allen crushes Rose, though I’m sure career RC and BRAA and whatever else would tell a different story. Same thing here, I think: the right counting stats might tell you which hitter has provided the most overall value, but the rate stats (over a certain small sample size cutoff) tell you who’s been the “best” hitter. Again, all just semantics.
Based on his increased rate of ABs of late, I think we need to update his projected numbers. I have him at:
What he’s got to do the rest of the way
166 at-bats
73 hits
Batting average: .440
Final numbers
529 at-bats
212 hits
Batting average: .400
Funny how the Twins have gotten a lot more interesting to follow the past 2 weeks.
@ Steve C and Chance
Unlike the MVP awards, more voters vote for Cy Youngs based more on individual performance and less on whether or not a team made the playoffs. None of the last three NL winners (Lincecum, Peavy, and Webb) came from a playoff team, nor did Cliff Lee last year. The voters typically associate “value” with getting to the playoffs, and more often choose a Cy based on who is simply the “best.”
I’d like to note that not only is Mauer’s average 100 points higher than Teixeira’s, but they are also tied in isolated power, so the Teixeira backers don’t even have that to fall back on.
@ Bill,
You are correct. The line should have read “Mauer is not clearly the best hitter in baseball”.
We are probably arguing two slightly different things. As you say, semantics. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the year plays out statistically for Mauer and Pujols.
Maybe people will start lobbing meatballs to Mauer the way they did for McGuire during the HR chase…
BTW, since May 1 (when Mauer came off the DL), Mauer has 77 RBI’s… oh, and Texeira has 76. So, anyone saying Tex has more RBI’s…well, only because he has a head start. Even if he catches up a little, he’s still not significantly ahead. That’s straight up counting numbers for those old skool baseball statheads.
What if Joe keeps up this ridiculousness for another week, breaks .400, and then sits the rest of the season? Is that akin to Bobby Sura’s fake triple double? It would never happen anyway. Ted Williams ghost wouldn’t allow it.
Speaking of Mauer’s current 193 OPS+. Here’s a B-R link that lists the top OPS+ seasons for catchers in the last 108 years…
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/shareit/72hq
If you don’t have a B-R subscription it only lists #1 then drops down to around #130, but don’t worry you should still able to find where Mauer 2009 slots in on the list.
James: he’s 87 PA short of the 502 required to qualify for the batting title. If he has *three* great weeks (and he’d have to hit about .490 in that span to get there that quickly), then maybe…
mauer is not just putting up good numbers for baseball. he’s not just putting up good numbers for catchers. he putting beer league softball team numbers.
I think you guys may be being a bit harsh. Especially you Joe. I agree with what you guys are saying that Mauer is the best player in the AL right now. (And it physically pains me to say that as a Tigers fan. I would root against my best friend if played against the Tigers.) And I agree that the MVP should be the best player in the league, regardless of team records.
But I think the people who argue for Tex over Mauer are using a different criteria for MVP. I think they would agree that Mauer is the better player, but they don’t agree he is more valuable. I can understand that they attach value to a player being on a team making the playoffs. If using “value” in this manner Mauer has less value than Tex (in their eyes) because Mauer’s team isn’t in the playoff hunt. I’m just trying to say that one person’s view of what MVP means isn’t necessarily better than someone elses.
Having said that, I think voting for Tex over Mauer for MVP is crazy on a level most people will never reach in their lifetime. I’m talking, History Book Crazy.
I think most of us understand what people are thinking when they say Tex should be MVP. This crazy idea that came from nowhere about what “VALUABLE” (all caps, always) means, and all that. I just think that we also realize that it’s completely, totally, indefensibly wrong, and that there’s nothing wrong with being harsh toward people who, against all reason, continue to believe those things.
That’s my point though. We both agree that value is solely derived from talent. But where is it written that we’re right and they’re wrong? I do think we’re right, otherwise I’d be a fool to have that view. I just don’t think one can say the conventional view is “completely, totally, indefensibly wrong.”
Richard, I think you’re right to a certain extent: there are folks who feel that MVPs have to come to playoff teams. However, I disagree that people are entitled to their own view on this.
The MVP criteria specifically states that the MVP need not come from a playoff team — why bother putting that in the criteria if the requirement is that the player must come from a playoff team? Those who view the MVP award as such are flat out ignoring the stated criteria for the award.
On another note, the 3-5 and two dingers were awesome last night, but the highlight was Mauer saving Humber from a certain wild pitch…on an intentional walk. This came 30 seconds after Humber threw to third base with no one covering.
Dave E.
I did not know that. (I admit I haven’t seen the MVP criteria and didn’t even know it was out there.)
I now agree fully.
Oh Poz, will you forgive me for doubting you?
That’s why here on the right-hand side of the pond, we don’t have MVP awards, but Player of the Season awards.
F’rinstance, the EPL awards to the Footballer of the Season (writers’ award) and the Player of the Season (players’ award) which are approximately equally prestigious. We don’t get into those stupid arguments about whether a good player on a bad team is deserving or not.
Of course, all our stats are heavily team-dependent (goals scored, for instance) so it’s not like good players on bad teams get recognition anyway.
Point taken on the OPS+ stats, but let’s not forget that Pujols has 36 intentional walks this year, compared to 4 for Mauer. Assuming Pujols had done in those 32 extra at-bats what he’s done all year, and the OPS+ wouldn’t even be close.
I just can’t wrap my head around such aversion to progressing our thoughts.
Logic shows that if player A and B hit the same way, player A will almost always have more RBI if he’s on the ‘09 Yankees instead of the ‘09 Twins. Yet Teixeira will get credit for having more RBI’s (despite Mauer knocking in base runners at a near 50% better rate than him).
Logic says a player has a very limited impact, even Ichiro will only get 13% of his team’s PA’s. Once again, Teixeira gets credit for his teammates being Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, Damon, and Swisher.
I get variance in ideas of what fully defines “value”, but cherry picking a slugger off a playoff team is stupid. Teixeira isn’t even one of the 10 best players in the AL, but he’s going to get lots of #1 votes for nothing but name on the uniform. If he was playing at this level in Texas, no one would care. I hope Mauer keeps this up, wins the MVP, and we can see the same kind of crazyballs articles that Ryan Howard lovers wrote last year by wildly ascribing some sort of moral superiority to Teixeira’s performance.
Rich @ 49.
That’s why baseball’s great and maddening at the same time.
Great in that it’s so easy to evaluate a player’s performance on an individual basis.
Maddening in that so many people routinely ignore it because the results don’t please them.
I’m pretty sure I stole a base off of Joe Mauer last night.
Richard, here is the language:
“There is no clear-cut definition of what Most Valuable means. It is up to the individual voter to decide who was the Most Valuable Player in each league to his team. The MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier.
The rules of the voting remain the same as they were written on the first ballot in 1931:
1. Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense. 2. Number of games played. 3. General character, disposition, loyalty and effort. 4. Former winners are eligible. 5. Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.
You are also urged to give serious consideration to all your selections, from one to 10. A 10th-place vote can influence the outcome of an election. You must fill in all 10 places on your ballot.
Keep in mind that all players are eligible for MVP, and that includes pitchers and designated hitters.
Only regular-season performances are to be taken into consideration.”
Rod — those six stolen bases were disturbing and unusal. I’ve chosen to blame it on Orlando Cabrera’s lazy tags and the apparent molasses-like deliveries of various Twins pitchers.
Richard, a player cannot increase or decrease his value simply because of his team’s success. Given the fact that almost every part of a player’s on-field performance can be measured in baseball, using a player’s team’s success as a measure of that player’s value should be an exception and not a rule.
Two players with similar stats at similar positions vying for the MVP could reasonably be separated by the fact that one player’s team was in a playoff race the whole season and they ultimately made the playoffs, while the other’s team mirrored the ‘88 O’s (started 0-21 and was out of it the whole year).
The ridiculous assertion to me is that currently, with the standings and reality staring us directly in the face, the Yankees success adds to Teixeira’s value while the Twins mediocrity diminishes Mauer’s. I mean, the Twins are playing meaningful games just as the Yankees are. They both have chances to make the playoffs. Just because the Yankees are almost assured a playoff spot and the Twins likely won’t make it doesn’t diminish Morneau’s or Mauer’s value, their performance does… or doesn’t. In fact, their is MORE pressure on Mauer and Morneau than Teixeira because of the Yankees position, pitching, and surrounding cast.
It is quire possible and likely the Yankees may cruise into the playoffs and win the division with 100+ wins and a 10 game divisional lead while the Twins miss the playoffs and finish under .500 but only 5 or 6 games behind the AL Central winners. To some absolutely wrong ignorant buffoons that scenario would make A Yankees player more valuable than a Twins player with similar stats at similar positions even though the Twins player arguably played under much more pressure.
I apologize for the length. I’m a talker/typer.
Also Richard, I don’t mean for my post to seem as if you are an advocate for the position I castigated. I was simply arguing against the sort of thinking you previously described.
Is Mauer really known as “Baby Jesus” in Minnesota, as comment #10 suggests? That’s fantastic. I’m changing the name to my roto team right now.
Yep, “Baby Jesus” or “Baby Jeebus.”
Adrian Peterson is “Purple Jesus”
Regarding Matt and Bill’s discussion throughout the posts, I don’t know to what degree Bill was discounting counting stats, but as Matt wrote, counting stats are useful in comparing current players.
The fact that Mauer missed April while Pujols did not means that Pujols contributed to his team and thus added to his counting stats and had more value in April than Mauer. Since April is part of the 2009 season, when evaluating the best player of 2009, the fact that Mauer wasn’t able to contribute for that significant period of time he wasn’t accumulating statistics, which is reflected in counting stats.
If two players each play the same position and share the same slash line of .300/.400/.600, but Player DogBall played 16 games while Player HineyBurp played 160 games, I’d say Player HineyBurp had the better year since he played more.
The concept of value is so easy. If I offer you a $50 bill or a $100 bill, which are you going to take? Franklin wins, naturally.
Now let’s suppose that I pulled the $50 bill out of my right pocket where I had 24 other $50 bills, and I pulled the the $100 bill out of my left pocket where I had 24 singles. Which bill has more value? Newsflash to baseball writers: THE $100 BILL IS STILL MORE VALUABLE.
Value is such a simple concept, unless you give sports writers 100 years to warp and manipulate and misshape it to fit irrational agendas.
Forget the ghost of Ted Williams. Does anyone really think that Gardy would let Mauer sit out the rest of the season if he happens to get to .400 with the requisite number of PA’s?
Team stats, a test:
You need a FA pitcher in the offseason. You can choose between to pitchers, that are the same age, and want the same money. They both are RH. Everything about them is the same, except this:
Player A:
15-5 w-l record. Gives up 4, 5, 6 runs a game in equal distribution.
Player B:
10-15 w-l record. Gives up 2, 3, 4 runs a game in equal distribution.
Which one do you sign? The one with the better team stats, or the one with the better individual stats?
MVP test:
Player A: .500/.600/1.200 slash, but his team won 50 games. All time best hitting season ever in the majors, but his teammates stunk. Only drove in 80 runs, as no one was on base in front of him.
Player B: .300/.350/.700 slash, but his team won 100 games. Great season, and his teammates were great. Drove in 135 runs, his teammates were on base a lot in front of him.
RBI test (or, one reason RBI is a silly stat):
Span hits a legit line drive single. Steals 2nd base. Advanced to 3rd on sacrifice bunt by Cabrera. Mauer hits routine fly ball to weak armed OF. Who most contributed to this run being scored? Who should get the counting stat here?
@59
That’s something of a fallacy in this case, as the games played disparity is not nearly that large. Also, Mauer’s counting stats are nearly level with that of Tex, while still doing it in both fewer games and at a VASTLY more demanding position. So in your example, yes HineyBurp had the better year. However, I would say putting up equal/far superior stats in fewer games (as is the case here) makes for the clearly better season.
I like the Mauer updates too, and agree he should be the MVP. At the same time I am a Yankee fan and don’t see the need to write so venomously about Teixiera. If you’re going to attack someone attack Kepner or the other writers and not Mark.
These kinds of debates have been going on the last few seasons, specifically Pujols vs Howard and ARod vs Magglio, but it seems because the player the uninformed writers are talking about is a Yankee, everyone comes out of the woodwork against him.
Player A: .370/.430/.601, has 3 kids, a signed baseball from Larry Sheets and $174 in Canadian toonies in his pocket
Player B: has 130 RBI, an AVN award and a coupon for 25% off at Borders Books.
Tell me who’s more valuable now, stathead smartypants!
On your beanballs article. I would be interested to see how the 1993 expansion affected the bean balls. More teams=More pitchers= Worse pitchers (and worse overall control). Also, baseball has to compete for the best athletes with football and basketball a lot more now, which also might water down the pitching talent some.
Dave E. Thanks for posting that. It seems pretty clear to me that the voters aren’t supposed to factor in team records.
Sweatpants00, no, thats perfectly alright. (although the thought of someone named Richard getting castigated does make me chuckle) I agree that a player’s talent (value) does not rise and fall with his team. I had been operating under the incorrect assumption that the MVP voting rules didn’t cover the topic in question. Thus I was trying to understand the conventional wisdom so that better arguements could be directed against it. However, since they do cover whether team records should be considered, rather clearly I might add, I realize that my point was moot from the start.
@ Steve C #30
Right on. Joe should be simultaneously campaigning for Greinke over Beckett (or whoever gets the most wins) for Cy Young. Do it Joe!
Looks like we’ve got another article titled Mauer Power: http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4409564&name=stark_jayson&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fentryID%3d4409564%26name%3dstark_jayson.
So here’s the question. Given that Albert Pujols is “just” an RBI-machine 1b and Mauer is a catcher, who would you vote for if they were in the same division?
@59 Latch Key Kid – I was discussing Pujols and Mauer, not Teixeira and Mauer. In the case of Pujols and Mauer neither is putting up far superior stats to the other.
My point was the games discrepancy in the case of ‘09 Mauer and Pujols isn’t as great as my example but the point is “counting stats” matter and are useful because if you don’t play, you have no value. Hell, games played are a counting stat.
I’m simply saying two players with .300/.400/.600 lines can have vastly different values and impacts on a season based on playing time.
And in this case, and the discussion between posters Matt and Bill which I was commenting on, the two players discussed, Mauer and Pujols, have missed 25 and 2 games, respectively. The 23 game difference is approximately 15% of the regular season and that is 15% of the season where Pujols was providing MVP numbers and thus value to his team where Mauer was not.
I mentioned this in an earlier thread, but when comparing Mauer’s OPS+ to Pujols’s, it should be noted that, even if Mauer keeps hitting like this the rest of the way, his OPS+ is going to drop quite a bit (and Pujols’s will go up somewhat) once Baseball-Reference updates the park factors at the end of the year.
@ Dave,
Mauer would be my MLB MVP if such a thing existed. He has a higher wOBA and has a higher WAR (which is both position and replacement adjusted). Mauer has been a beast.
Pujols has been more valuable offensively but not enough to overcome Mauer’s defense.
Love Mauer, but as the catcher shouldn’t he actually be penalized for his pitching staff being absolutely terrible this season? Mauer is regarded as a great defensive catcher, but clearly he has not called a lot of great games for his staff to have underachieved as badly as they have.
@71 Sweatpants00
My apologies for misreading which argument you were commenting on there (though most of what you’re saying is also very much in line with the pro-Tex crowd).
While I might side on the pro-Pujols in the better-hitter debate, it wouldn’t be an immovable stand. I do think that, this season only, Mauer is having the more impressive season, if only because it’s unprecedented for a C to do what he’s doing. But when you look at Pujols’ season in light of his whole career…the man isn’t human. Just …wow.
catcher ERA does not exist. catcher ERA does not exist. It’s the pitchers…..
@74 Joe N
Is it fair to Mauer’s game calling for Liriano’s ineffective slider/loss of stuff since Tommy John surgery/command/injury? Or Baker and Slowey dealing with various injuries? Or Glen Perkins and Anthony Swerzak (or whatever his name is, I’m too lazy to check for sure) being quadruple-A starting pitchers? Or Carl Pavano for being, well, Carl Pavano?
If a pitcher has no stuff, and isn’t hitting his spots, there isn’t a catcher in the world who can do anything about that
That first sentence should begin “Is it fair to BLAME Mauer’s game calling…”
What burns me the most about Mauer’s MVP campaign is that the Twins Cities sports writers are so far largely sitting it out. The writers here have always been oddly lukewarm toward Mauer, and it is maddening as hell. Never before have I witnessed such a disconnect between what the fans feel and what the writers opine. Yep, he really is called Baby Jesus; and, yep, people here really are familiar with his high school career. But the writers — and I am thinking of you, Jim Souhan — insist on getting on him for his injuries or his lack of power or whatever. For four years we have been watching one of the best catchers in MLB history (no, it isn’t too early to start saying this), a guy who for me will be like George Brett in my youth, or Rod Carew and Harmon Killebrew were for my Father — people I talk about having watched in their day, and the sportswriters here can’t manage to pull their heads out of the keisters long enough to write about his supreme excellence.
I don’t know if it will hurt him, but I can certainly see MVP voters saying things like, “even the sports writers in his own town don’t think he is the best player on the team”, and they might be right about how MN sportswriters view his value.
Writer here need to be talking about Mauer’s excellence weekly, if not daily. Honestly, what else is there to write about the Twins right now?
Argggg! So frustrating.
ESPN at this moment are filling their daytime void with Joe Mauer for AL MVP airtime (Albert NL MVP)….
Another Joe Blog appearance by Danny Wind! I must take this opportunity to link to Danny’s excellent historical piece outlining the wartime contributions made to minor league baseball by Pierre McElroy.
http://www.sillyplatypus.com/2009/07/legend-of-pelican.html
Fly on Pelican. Fly on.
Mauer’s not only the best hitter in Minnesota, he’s also the best quarterback.
Boo to you, Brittfarrv.
Colin @ 64
Welcome to nerd land. Essentially the way a lot of us have seen bad, over the top arguments debunked is to perform the same over the topness. Who would’ve thought Ryan Howard would become a fall guy to sabermetric analysts and other more nerdy baseball fans in 2006, for example. Most of us love Ryan Howard but think it was crazyballs to say he was the “most valuable”.
It’s the same thing here. 9 times out of 10, you see writers come out of the woodwork to throw over the top support to one candidate for being on a good team and having a lot of RBI. They don’t always win, but this happens annually. The other time, it’s someone who’s so damn scraptabulously gritty (1962 Maury Wills, etc), that they get the subjective support. And since Joe Posnanski is such a well known and respected writer, he has a great forum to essentially bash people over the head with the “facts”. Obviously no one will ever think stats say everything (and anyone who does is an absolute zealot), but keep pounding away and sooner or later the average Joe says “you know, this here OPS+/WARP/WAR/etc stuff is weird, but these Mauer fans make way more sense than these Teixeira backers talking about mental phenomina and stuff.”
Essentially that’s what I see whenever a “wrong” candidate is endorsed for MVP; the writer knows for a fact he doesn’t have the tangible, factual info to fully back his case, so instead he resorts to “I see him play every day”, “clutch hitting”, or the personal favorite of “lifting his teammates”. That one’s truly awesome, to actually ascribe some sort of magical, uplifting force that makes all his teammates better as a result. Because that’s exactly what Derek Jeter is missing, right, magical clutchiness? Never heard the media say that about him before.
I also love how Jeter is clearly a better MVP candidate and has a legit case to win it, but the NYY media seems in the new guy’s corner. How odd, I would think it’d be high time for them to endorse their boy to finally bring an MVP home.
It’s just all odd. I quit trying to follow, because how can you debate a point when the opposing party refuses to argue with facts and resorts to saying things that you can neither prove nor disprove?
What’s interesting about the Twins is that Mauer has the highest OPS+ in the AL right now at 193. Batting behind him is Morneau, who has the 2nd highest OPS+ in the AL at 151. Batting behind Morneau is Jason Kubel, who has the 3rd highest OPS+ in the AL (148, tied with Kevin Youkilis). This is remarkable. Of course, Teixeira is 6th in OPS+ (141), and some teammates are up there as well (ARod 11th, Damon 16th, Matsui 19th, Jeter 21st). Because of this, I’d say Miggy Cabrera is a good MVP candidate. He carries that cadaver-laden Detroit batting lineup. Miggy’s OPS+ is 5th in the AL (145). His next closest teammate is Curtis Granderson at 51st and Brandon Inge at 56th in the AL. Their OPS+’s are 106 and 104 respectively.
Just had a thought:
If one believes that the MVP has to come from a playoff team, how can one give a second (or third, etc.) place vote to a non-playoff player? By what logic would Joe Mauer be the third most valuable player in the American League if he couldn’t possibly be the first? Aren’t all the valuable players still playing in October?
If Mark Teixeira is more valuable than Joe Mauer BECAUSE his team made the playoffs, isn’t Johnny Damon more valuable than Joe Mauer, too?
Mark @ 84
Damn, Inge has died off in the 2nd half. Probably not helped by a BABIP in the 2nd half that’s 30 points below his career average, so not exactly going to crucify him for it.
Ted @ 79: in one of the biggest shocks of my life, Dan Barriero admitted yesterday that Mauer is now actually underrated (for you non-Minny folks, Barriero is the former columnist turned talk show host who derisively dubbed Mauer “Baby Jesus”).
Yep: even Barriero is admitting that Mauer really is that good. Never thought I’d see the day that he actually realized how good he is, much less admit it.
You Band Wagon Jumper! You notice Jeter is having a great year and decide that I’ll get on the band wagon before everyone esle does! You rag on the guy constantly and now you have a sudden change of heart? I no longer believe you when you write an article now. Who knows if your opinion will change next week and just erase your previous thoughts. I no longer take you serious. If you just took the time to watch Jeter play all these years and not be an a-hole you wouldn’t have to sound like such a douche and change your stance, you would have supported him all along. You are a liar and untrustworthy, which means I no longer read your article or blog.
If a Yankee is going to be MVP it should be the new stadium. If you’ve seen a game played there you know its no coincidence that everyone in the lineup is having a career year!
And 88 proves once again why no one likes Yankee fans.
Do you REALLY think the problem lies in not taking the time to WATCH Jeter? With all the time the Yankees are on national TV, if you haven’t seen tons of Jeter, you don’t watch baseball.
This is why he’s “hopping the bandwagon” you ignoramus:
UZR/150 by season
2002: -0.3
2003: -3.8
2004: -0.4
2005: -12.6
2006: -7.2
2007: -16.7
2008: -0.7
2009: 8.1
So Jeter since 2002 has ranged from mediocre SS defense to poor SS defense. In 2009, he’s playing very good shortstop, and even has above average range (I’ve seen enough of his run into LF, half turn jump & throw disasters to know range isn’t his strong suit in the field). Combine that with his normally strong offensive production out of SS, and you have a very very good season. Now go cry to your worshipping post.
#88 fails at internet.
That’s the dumbest comment I’ve read in a while…which, with all the Teixeira love going on in the comments at ESPN, really took some doing…
Kinda just want to note that this has quickly become one of the most, if not the most, discussed topics ever on this estimable blog.
340 comments (and counting) in less than a week since Joe started doing the Mauer updates! Sheesh!
stats guys: what’s the deal with catcher ERA? it seems like something that obviously should exist (we all think it matter what pitches you throw to what locations in what sequence, no?); I presume that initial studies just wanted to quantify it and folks were surprised to be unable to find evidence of its existence.
is it just that pitch-calling is highly governed by CW, and all catchers end up doing basically the same thing?
Nick- ESPN will still give you Catcher ERA is you look hard enough. Plenty of studies have tried to see if it meant anything, but nobody’s found that it did.
I think that catchers have much, much less effect on a pitching staff than most people think. I think most professional pitchers and catchers generally know where to pitch guys and in what situations, and the bigger factor by, like, hundreds of times is the pitcher’s ability to actually hit those spots. I don’t doubt that catchers have some impact, but it’s too small and there are way too many other factors to actually be measurable.
Bill–sounds right; the way a certain of reporter tried to explain Maddux’s greatness as “chess genius on the hill” rather than “insane, almost historically unprecedented combo of command and late movement.”
[re: additional intentional walks for Pujols]
Assuming Pujols had done in those 32 extra at-bats what he’s done all year, and the OPS+ wouldn’t even be close.
Impossible (well, almost).
We know to a virtual certainty that Pujols wouldn’t improve his OBP for those 32 plate appearances – otherwise he’d have to hit safely in every one of those PAs. And there is no reason to think that his SLG would be better for those particular 32 PAs than it already is for the season.
If NY sportswriters want a cause, I’ll state the obvious: they should be campaigning for Mo to get a Cy Young. The guy has completely dominated hitters for 15 years, and has never won one. Last year…his WHIP was apparently 0.66. Can that be right? And he finished….fifth. He’s so consistent and low key that he’s somehow underappreciated. You can make a very compelling argument that he’s one of the top 20 pitchers of all time, maybe top 10.
Screw Tex…that argument is just ridiculous. But you can easily argue that Mo has been as good as the AL’s best pitchers.
I hate the Yankees. I don’t want him to win. I generally don’t think a great closer is as important as a great starter, maybe not even a very good one. But for Mo to never win a Cy Young…not many relievers do, but still.
I just realized the point about Pujols’ additional intentional walks may have meant that the OPS+ between the two wouldn’t even be close because Mauer would be so much further ahead. If so, kindly disregard #96.
What if Joe keeps up this ridiculousness for another week, breaks .400, and then sits the rest of the season?
Then he won’t get the 502 plate appearances required to qualify for the batting title*, and his feat will be a sham.
(*More accurately, he’ll be given the equivalent of 0fer the difference between 502 and the PAs he has, so that he’ll be credited with a batting average based on that – which will be much lower than .400).
Sorry, I’m not getting on the bandwagon…the Twins are out of the wild-card race, they haven’t played an important game since late June.
It’s like Tiny Archibald racking up great stats for those bad KC-Omaha teams.
Joe, please ask any non-mauer MVP supporter this question: what could Mauer have done to get your MVP vote? When you start to think of things he could have done better this year its pretty f&cking ridiculous to think of them out loud. Hit .400 (maybe he’ll get there), out OBP and SLG everyone despite being a catcher (oops, did that), play for the Yankees, etc. I can’t imagine an answer that actually has any logic in it. Do it.
I don’t have a dog in this fight (I’m an NL guy) … but if batting average is such a flawed statistic (as I’ve seen argued on this and other blogs), why is it being used to promote a player for MVP?
#102: It isn’t. People still have an understandable fascination with .400, regardless of the flaws in BA – which is why people are so captivated by what Mauer is doing (and as a catcher!).
But when it comes time to measure the MVP, the Mauer supporters are looking at his slash stats – especially his last 2. The #1 argument for Mauer over Teixeira for MVP is Mauer’s OPS+ is 193, while Teixeira’s is 141.
Ike:
I mostly agree with McKingford, but I would add the following:
It is exceptionally difficult to do what Mauer is doing right now.
Everyone knows that the last player to hit 400 was Ted Williams in 1941. And for the most part people get how rare it is for a player to hit above 380.
But, just for fun, here is a list of players who hit 380 or better in a non-strike-shortened season since 1941 (apologies to Tony Gwynn).
(1) George Brett, 1980: 390
(2) Rod Carew, 1977: 388
(3) Ted Williams, 1957: 388
That’s it. Some have come close — Larry Walker hit 379 once — but since Ted Williams closed the book on the 400 season only three have even made it to 380, and one was Ted Williams.
So while Mauer’s other batting stats are generally more useful in determining value, I think his batting average should be featured in the MVP discussion.
Joe,
What’s your take on BaseballMusings.com’s David Pinto suggestion that if the Twinkies are cooked and Mauer has .400 with 502 PAs that sitting him would be the way to go?
Didn’t realize anyone else brought that up. Pays to read what others comment, I guess…
I’d like to say “Nice retraction on Jeter being overrated in SI today”… but I know you don’t have to retract anything because you love Jeter just as much as the rest of us do… the only difference is that it kills you to admit it. But thats OK, I’ll keep on reading knowing that we are on the same page.
Mauer watch – get ye to si.com’s frontpage
OK, this is how crazy the talk of Teixeira-for-MVP is:
2009: 283/382/553 OPS+ 141
2008: 308/410/552 OPS+ 151, MVP 20th
2007: 306/400/563 OPS+ 150, MVP N/A
…
2005: 301/379/575 OPS+ 144, MVP 7th
2004: 281/370/560 OPS+ 131, MVP 18th
The one thing you can say about him is that he’s pretty consistent. But you certainly can’t say that this season sticks out, because he’s got at least 3 seasons where he was better. Yet in those 3 seasons, the highest he finished in MVP voting is 7th, and one year he didn’t even rank in the top 20.
How insane is it that a guy can win an MVP by having a worse season, and thus, just because he switched teams? In what way is the MVP then an *individual* award?
2008 and 2007 aren’t fair to say he should have placed higher in the MVP voting, though. He got traded to the opposite league both years mid season. Not to say he would have won either year, but he likely would have placed much higher if he put up those same numbers without being traded.
By the way, not at all directed at you McKingford, just as some of the other comments, but when did “Let’s praise Joe Mauer” turn into “Let’s bash Mark Teixeira and Yankee fans!”?
Reading more of the comments, I absolutely 100% agree with #64. As of right now (and can we all please be reminded that it’s still the middle of August? If Joe Mauer gets hurt tomorrow and doesn’t play again, he shouldn’t get the MVP having missed a full third of the season including April…but I digress), Joe Mauer absolutely should be the MVP in my opinion, and unless there’s a severe drop off, an injury, or someone else having the best month of September ever, he should be the MVP at the end of the season too. But why can’t some of you guys (if you’re not doing it, then this doesn’t apply to you) just say “Hey, Mauer should be MVP, but Teixeira is having a good season, just not the best in the AL”? No, it’s “Here’s why Teixeira sucks, let’s mock everything he does, and let’s bash all the Yankee fans too!”.
Just for the record, I’m a big fan of Joe’s and I’m always linking his blog to friends of mine and people I know. But I’m not doing that anytime soon for HIS sake, because I know the friends I have, most of whom are also Yankee fans, might like his writing but aren’t ever coming back to the blog when they see a lot of unwarranted Yankee and Yankee fan bashing going on in the comments.
Just cause we have a few idiots like #88, don’t sit here and act like every Yankee fan is like that. The vast majority aren’t, and honestly, you guys might not notice since you agree on the Mauer thing, but a few of the blogs regular posters are being just as obnoxious as #88, using name calling and bashing people for their opinion without even trying to argue their side. It’s just nobody is calling them on it because they’re doing it in the context of Mauer for MVP.
Please be fair. Yankee fans read this blog too, and it’s disappointing when I keep reading after Joe’s level headed posts and see people bashing Yankees and their fans for no apparent reason.
the yankees fan dost protest too much, methinks…
instead of saying, “hey, stop picking on yankees fans,” write a nice long post about how great tex actually IS, throw some nice logic and/or stats in there, etc…as I tell my kids, whining won’t getcha anywhere.
us yankee haters can say anything we want, but this ain’t a-rod redux where sox fans (like me) are saying “man, i’m glad we didn’t sign him.” tex is a consistently elite-level player. i can’t stand the guy now that he’s got pinstripes on, but i sure wish the sox had him batting cleanup. good god, just look at the guy’s stats, watch him play…he’s a stud.
think about it this way: when i wore my manny jersey to yankee stadium during pedro’s “who’s your daddy” ALCS start, i expected to get abused a little bit. and i did (actually, a lot).
similarly, when you’re a yankees fan, your team is running away with first place, spending out of the stratosphere, signing smaller teams’ best players year after year, getting tons of coverage (i lie awake at night wondering if minka and k-hud will put all this pettiness behind them), yadda yadda yadda, when the opportunity for people to abuse you a little bit comes up, expect it. but just like i kept cheering loudly instead of whining, fight back my man.
oops, i got my “dosts” and “doths” screwed up. i hate when that happens.
For the people that would insinuate that Joe Mauer is more valuable as a hitter than Albert Curochio Pujols-Martinez II:
The fact that Joe Mauer has played fewer games has almost certainly boosted his rate stats. He’s great, but I have a hard time believing his true talent level is 193 OPS+. Those games, even at a clip better than his actual talent, would likely cost him.
Playing a lot of innings is good, and important. To break it down differently, Albert Pujols has played just as many games with a 193 OPS+ as Joe Mauer.
AND, he’s played 30 or so more games at something like an 180 OPS+. Those games would add value even if they were average; the fact that they’re so far beyond average means that Pujols has given you Joe Mauer’s hitting season PLUS a month of vintage Frank Thomas thrown in.
That, incidentally, is why the first qualification is “games played.”
No, it’s “Here’s why Teixeira sucks, let’s mock everything he does”
Sorry, but I call bullshit.
The *worst* things that have been said about Teixeira in Joe’s comment threads is that:
a) He’s not MVP worthy (which isn’t a slag, simply an exposition).
b) He’s the 4th best first baseman in the AL (hey – that’s still pretty damn good!).
c) Objective measures of his defense in the 2009 season, despite anecdotal evidence to the contrary, show him to be below average.
A couple of things on MVP votes. First, the guidelines are that the MVP “need not” come from a playoff time. That is not as strong as guidelines that say the MVP “should not have his team’s record as a consideration.” It’s up to each voter to determine whether the team is in the playoffs or not affects their votes, and by how much. Secondly, the second criterion for MVP is how often that guy played. So Mauer clearly played a lot less than anybody else under consideration for MVP and did not play for a playoff team, barring a sudden burst of victories from the Twins.
Do I think Mauer is the MVP? Yes I do. I think he is playing enough better than anybody else in the AL so that he deserves to be the MVP even if he was a first baseman. The catcher thing, the toughest position on the field, is just gravy. Do I think somebody is stupid for picking Texeira or (say) Kendry Morales instead? No. I disagree with them, and I would reject their attempt to buy me a conciliatory beer, but I can understand their reasoning. The difference is, I could *not* understand why somebody would pick Ichiro ahead of Mauer.
Anyway, I’m happy to root for Mauer, who is a great player. And I’m always happy to root against Yankees, who get far more than their share of MVP votes. But I think this case is far closer than the idiots who don’t think Blyleven belongs in the HOF.
In your book excerpt you say that the Reds’ lineup was the “most famous in history.”
Surely not, here’s one that was better and more famous:
‘61 Yankees
1B Moose Skowron
2B Bobby Richardson
3B Clete Boyer
C Yogi Berra
LF Hector Lopez
CF Mickey Mantle
RF Roger Maris
These Yankees have the edge at 3B, catcher (ok a draw), cf,& rf and most importantly in Mantle, Maris, Berra a core of HOF’ers that the Reds can’t match.
@117
Are you kidding us? The ‘61 Yankees are not even the best Yankees lineup ever, not really even close. Almost nothing you say makes sense.
You talk about the Yankees “core of HOF’ers”. Maris is not in the HOF, does 2 players make a “core”? The Reds had 3 HOF in their lineup (Bench, Morgan, Perez), plus Rose who would be if not for gambling. I will grant Perez really shouldn’t be HOF, but still.
You call C, with Yogi/Bench, a draw. Yogi caught less than 40 games in ‘61 FOr his career, comparable to Bench, at the time, not even close.
Somehow, you have Clete Boyer, a terrific defensive 3B who couldn’t hit water falling out of a boat, over Rose. Huh?
Taking an absurd draw at C and a ridiculous advantage at 3B, you STILL only have the Yankees ahead at 4 of 8 positions.
If you want to see a really strong Yankee lineup, try 1938.