Mauer Pauer 8.17
Posted: August 17th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 42 Comments »
Joe Mauer goes 1-for-4 — batting average drops to .377. More people wrote about the MVP battle.
Look: I’ve been entirely clear about my feelings on the matter — Joe Mauer is the one and only choice for MVP. But I don’t get to make these decisions, and I would say it’s very likely that if the Twins don’t make the playoffs (and I don’t think they have a run in them) that Mauer will not get enough votes. We can argue from now until doomsday about the whole definition of valuable, but there are plenty of people (enough people to make a difference) who believe a player simply cannot be most valuable if his team does not win.
So, focusing in entirely on the contenders … it seems to me your MVP candidates are:
Detroit
– Miguel Cabrera
Yankees
– Mark Teixeira
– Derek Jeter
– Mariano Rivera
Angels
– Kendry Morales
– Bobby Abreu
Boston(?)
– Kevin Youkilis
– Josh Beckett
Rangers (?)
– Michael Young
Rays(?)
– Ben Zobrist
– Jason Bartlett
– Carl Crawford
– Evan Longoria
White Sox(?)
– Nobody in particular
More on this as the week goes on … and might have a surprising column at SI.com on Wednesday.
Mauer to date
353 at-bats
133 hits
Batting average: .377 average.
What he’s got to do the rest of the way
172 at-bats
77 hits
Batting average: .448
Final numbers
525 at-bats
210 hits
Batting average: .400
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Mauer’s got my non-existent vote. But Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/08/10/crawford.mvp/index.html) both have to be considered candidates.
Looks like another classic battle of the flat-earth way of thinking vs. the “I can read a book and learn stuff” way of doing it.
I just love how someone can say any first baseman plays “phenominal” defense based on the eye test. First off, you better be Keith Hernandez leveling it out at 1st if you want to be “phenominal” at all. Second off, UZR says that’s not true at all (FRAA has him at +10 though, shrug). He’s not even the best player on his team. If he wins, MVP voters are certifiably insane.
MVP voters are not insane, they are just lemmings. (And for the record, lemmings get a bad rap when it comes to following blindly, so maybe we should rethink that cliche: http://www.snopes.com/disney/films/lemmings.asp) As discussed by Rob Neyer and Joe, among others, the existence of a single “video byte” moment can do more to influence the outcome of the voting than any real understanding or analysis. Maybe Mauer needs to pull a Geena Davis from “A League of Their Own” and do the splits while catching a foul pop-up. I think that would clinch it for him. Or land him on the DL.
I think you’ve got to throw in Verlander as a candidate for MVP this year. At the beginning of the season the Tigers needed Verlander to right the ship if they had any shot at the Central and I think he’s back to his 2007 form, probably better.
it is my personal belief that an MVP winner doesn’t have to be in the playoffs. they only have to keep them in the playoff hunt. i suppose the twins count in this, anyway, a .377 hitting catcher should erase any doubt.
i trust the the defensive stats generally. i think they give you a good idea, but i dont think its unfair for me to say Rico Brogna was a great defensive first baseman because i SAW him scoop the crap out of balls either.
It’s just funny to me that baseball, the most individual of all team sports, is the most decisively team sport of them all. You can have a good basketball team with 2 all stars and 10 average to poor players. You can ride a few good players in football (Philadelphia Eagles, sup Westbrook). In baseball, if your team features gaping holes, you can’t hide it like you can in other sports. I just can’t understand why this is such a novel concept to so many.
Mauer is the clear choice. I’m baffled that people argue that he’s LESS valuable because he’s a catcher and he’s not on the field every day. 1st of all, he usually DH’s when he catches. 2nd, and more importantly, “great” Catchers are undoubtedly more valuable than “great” 1st basemen due to the difference between “average” or “replacement level” by position. It’s like the Twilight Zone to read some of the people argue for Teixeira. My last underseen point is that it’s possible that Mauer was more valuable while injured in April than Teixeira was while playing. Teixeira was making outs like crazy, while Mauer’s replacements were potentially doing decent enough for the Twins.
Who to nominate for the White Sox? – -How about Gordon Beckham? They weren’t going anywhere with Josh Fields.
Keep it up, Joe!
Watching Joe Mauer at bats is a religion now in MN. I saw Baker throw a 2-hit shutout Saturday, and the applause he received after the game was not as loud or enthusiastic as the applause Mauer received every time he stepped into the batter’s box.
And the applause was deserved. His at bat in the 8th inning, for instance, was a treat. He of course takes strike one…just stands there and watches. Then he fouls off four or five pitches in the process of working a 3-2 count.
How does it end? Walk.
Maybe not the most exciting outcome for some fans, but in MN that walk was applauded as though he had smacked a home run.
Why? Because it was the 8th inning and because Mauer had already rapped out three hits and because his hands probably hurt and because the team was leading 11 to zero and because Mauer is having an epic season in which every plate appearance has relevance and because you can tell by his demeanor that he will never give away an at bat.
The mandate that MVPs can only be playing on playoff or near playoff teams leads to some pretty weird behavior by sportswriters. I mean, by definition, a team like the Yankees is going to have several very valuable players, but the voters don’t want cancel each others vote out and have it fall to a totally undeserving player like Mauer simply because he is awesome at baseball. So you get these columns putting forward the “Yankees” candidate, the “Detroit” candidate, or the “Angels” candidate so everyone kind of has a heads up over who they should choose. It’s a weird little dance.
Albert Pujols is the best baseball player on the planet.
Joe Mauer is the second best.
They play in different leagues. Bam! Awards settled.
What about Justin Morneau? I think he at least deserves to be in the conversation.
Couple guys you missed from your MVP lists –
1. Chone Figgins definitely deserves a look, and I’d be happy to see him finish top 5. Most runs in the AL, #4 in batting average, #6 in overall value (per fangraphs).
2. Jermaine Dye has to at least be a candidate for the White Sox.
It’s way too early for MVP bellyaching.
Carlos Quentin was a shoe-in for the award with 30 games left last season before getting hurt and the guy barely cracked the Top 5 in voting.
If Mauer continues to hit .370+ along with 30 homers he’ll get his much deserved MVP award.
Speaking as a Yankee fan, I’ve got to defend Teixeira just a little bit–he’s a tremendous player. As ugly as his home/road splits are, he comes up with big hits on the road occasionally. And, UZR be damned, he’s a very good first baseman. But he didn’t even start hitting until A-Rod got off the DL! Jeter would be my choice from the Yankees, if I had to pick my MVP from among the Yankees.
Thankfully, there’s no such requirement. I’ve been waiting for Mauer to get an MVP award for years, and this year he clearly deserves it. He’s going to be making the case for best-hitting catcher in history in just a few years, and it would be criminal if he didn’t have some hardware to show for it. I mean, what kind of catcher has an OBA of .444? An MVP catcher.
I can only hope that the Twins can find one or two more solid hitters and develop their young pitchers into a solid staff and make a playoff run at the same time Mauer has another sensational season sometime in the next few years, so that he can be a lock for all the playoffs-obsessed voters out there.
A bit off topic, Joe, but this one is right up your alley in the statistically unlikely category.
http://grittyandclutch.blogspot.com/2009/08/concerning-randy-wolfs-day.html
Do you realize how close Randy Wolf came to pitching a perfect game and hitting for the cycle in the same game?
And the correct answer is Joe Mauer.
all these beat reporters, who have watched more baseball than I have, but are not professional talent evaluators, watch one major league player at a position consistently, and regularly conclude that their guy is an underrated defender (by stats, by rep) because he looks really slick out there.
OF COURSE HE LOOKS GOOD–HE’S A MAJOR LEAGUE BALLPLAYER. most MLB players at most positions look damn good out there.
and yet what is the response, of the typical beat reporter, if this is pointed out?
“No, you don’t get it, Rod moves like a cat, guy’s got a gun out there, saved us three games with his left armpit alone….”
maybe you cannot compare to good defenders by look, but you can definately who is bad, or slower. pedro feliz is certainly better than david bell. this mistrust is a bit geeky.
i think the stats are good when you compare maybe a guy you see versus a guy you dont get the oppurtunity to see.
one of joes links indicate how good an arm tex has. really? im voting for MVP because a guy notable for either receiving the ball, or flicking it to a pitcher has a good arm?
Maneesh at #3 gets post-of-the-day honors by my account.
I’d just like to thank the guy in the last of the 4 articles Joe linked who commented about how he won’t credit Mauer for playing a tougher position because they “both fill their role for their teams” for making my brain hemmorhage.
I understand giving more weight to a player on a playoff team than a non-contender in limited pressure situations, BUT how does wearing a Yankees or Angels or Red Sox uniform make a player more valuable than a Twins uniform? The Twins may finish 80-82 but they’ve been in contention, are in contention, and as long as the Tigers or White Sox don’t have a 13 of 15 type winning stretch they will probably continue to be in contention. Just because the Twins starting staff is collapsing under ineffectiveness and injury doesn’t lesson Mauer’s statistics. In fact, it puts more pressure on him both as a hitter and a catcher. The fact that the entire Yankees team has become a well-oiled machine is in part due to Teixeira, but also to their other very good hitters and a strong pitching staff.
I believe Teixeira’s most produtive offensive stretch came in May which doesn’t coincide with the Yankees recent dominance.
I don’t want to belittle Teixeira’s performance, but I want to bring attention to the fact that Mauer’s Twins are in contention (6 GB as of 5:24 pm on “Mondee”) which should validate his stats as meaningful. While Teixeira’s Yankees are in contention, isn’t there less pressure on him now that it’s obvious that the Yankees as a team are and have been running on all cylinders and likewise isn’t there more pressure on Mauer given the state of the Twins starting pitching?
Again, if you want to assign weight to a player’s team’s performance, do it based on contention and pressure and if that’s the case Mauer’s performance should not be discounted at all relative to the Teixeiras of the league.
#14–thanks for making the following point:
“But he didn’t even start hitting until A-Rod got off the DL!”
Exactly… Pujols has been a hitting machine all year, and he had the poo-poo platter of clean-up hitters hitting behind him… Mark DeRosa’s first game with the Cards saw him hitting clean-up behind Pujols… Mark DeRosa… Good player (his trade helped kill my AL-only fantasy team!), but not the prototypical clean-up hitter…
Yes, Mauer has had Morneau behind him all year, but I’d bet most pitchers are more scared of A-Rod than Morneau… If it took A-Rod coming back to jump start Teixiera’s season, how valuable can he really be??
Have Teixeira catch for a month. Have Mauer play first base for a month. Case closed.
First base is (of course) the easiest position to play. When he can’t move any more, every great hitter ends up there — Mantle, Schmidt, Brett, Mathews, etc. If he had to catch most days, Teixeira would be lucky to hit .250. And he’s a fine ballplayer.
sweatpantsoo said it best. kudos, sir.
Can someone please explain UZR to me? Explain to me exactly how it determines the hop a ball takes on a particular field, and explain how exactly it determines the quality of the throw from a third baseman to a first baseman. I’m serious because I don’t understand how it does that and I’d love to try to understand it. I’m a stats guy but I’ve been watching Teixeira all year, anything that says he’s a liability on defense is crap, period. He’s saved other guys a lot of errors just from saving their poor throws.
I’d really like to know, because I’ve always heard UZR is very suspect when it comes to first basemen due to trouble determining things like receiving throws (which is more or less the biggest job a 1B has) until suddenly everyone wanted to bash Teixeira. Was I mistaken?
And if UZR is so amazing why are there multiple different defensive metrics? If UZR is perfect and all knowing, why do we have other measurements of defense?
I’m really not trying to be a jerk, but I keep seeing people here more or less saying “Teixeira’s a bad defender and I don’t care if you watch him make a lot of great plays, you’re wrong and UZR is the best ever”. And for the record, no, this isn’t a “Derek Jeter” thing. Many people had a blind spot to his defense because he makes some pretty plays, but anyone actually paying attention could see his range was terrible (although he’s been better this year). I’m not seeing that with Teixeira. When watching the Yankees, I’d constantly see shortstops make plays that Jeter would never get to. I’m not seeing that with Teixeira. Seriously, I’m open to convincing. Convince me. Just don’t try with “Your eyes are dumb, UZR is awesome”. Explain to me how UZR measures the entirety of a first baseman’s job and I’ll be glad to listen.
LOL @ #24
Google, Wiki, Logic, all wonderful tools at your disposal.
Also, out of curiosity, why is everyone skipping over the fact that Mauer missed a whole month? I’m not saying you should think it’s a big deal, but it’s not even being mentioned. This is the MVP award, not the OPS+ and UZR Award. And missing an entire month lowers a players value to me. Maybe the Twins would be in first or closer if Mauer had been there. I’m not saying blame him for his injury (and as I’ve expressed elsewhere, I might even vote for Mauer, if I had a vote, I’d wait til the end of the season to judge but he’d probably have my vote right now), just saying, it lowers a players value. Quentin went from one of the favorites to afterthought for missing a month last season.
I’m sorry, again, I like Mauer and have no problem with anyone thinking he should win, but it’s the MVP award, not the “who has the best OPS+ but only if they play at a premium position” award. And many very intelligent people believe that there’s much more to “Value” than something as simple as that. Think Mauer should win all you want, I don’t even disagree, I’m just disappointed by the holier than thou, Mauer’s the clear choice and you’re an idiot if you think otherwise attitude I keep seeing in the comments. There are viable reasons to not pick Mauer. They may not agree with YOUR criteria of what makes an MVP, but there is no set criteria for the award.
While understanding UZR would be nice, do we really need to understand it to compare the defenders under examination?
Put Jeter at first base for a month. Put Teixeira at shortstop for a month. (At the end of the month, the Yankees would no longer lead the AL East.)
Jeter would do just fine. He would make all the catches. He would stop the balls hit down the line by left-handers. He would make the tosses to the pitcher. He would make the very few throws to some other base. He would run occasionally run into the grandstand for a pop fly, and he would alertly back up every base he could get to. He would hit just as well as he does now, and probably better.
Teixeira would be a fish out of water. It would be brutal. He would stop hitting. And he’s a fine ballplayer.
Yes, thank you for the sarcastic reply, very helpful. Actually not since UZR isn’t on Wikipedia as far as I can tell.
I had hoped for an intelligent discussion here, but all I’m seeing is sarcastic holier than thou responses. I’ll keep reading Joe of course, he doesn’t make the comments and he’s probably my favorite sportswriter, but if this is what the comments are, a “Don’t have alternate opinions or I’ll mock you”, then I’m not interested in participating anymore. Unfortunate, I figured since everyone here is talking about how perfect UZR is they could explain it to me, but all I got was a sarcastic response being laughed at.
I’ll leave it with this, some people should learn to accept that there are different viewpoints on certain things. Mauer’s not only a viable candidate but perhaps he SHOULD be the MVP, I’m not arguing against that. I’d probably even vote for the guy. But there are feasible reasons why a very intelligent person might not vote for Mauer. Some reasons given aren’t good (if anyone actually did argue that him being a catcher means he doesn’t play everyday, that’s foolish), but some are viable. You may not agree with them but they’re legitimate reasons for someone to choose another candidate. If you disagree, then DEBATE THAT. Tell that person why you disagree and have a nice discussion about it. When all you do is laugh and mock, you’re not helping your own cause.
Sorry, one more since David’s response popped up while I was posting, and I certainly don’t want anyone getting the impression my last post was directed at him.
I can see what you’re saying, David, in that I assume you’re talking about position difficulty. But in the end I do think Teixeira has played well at first base (and for the record, if I recall correctly, he played poorly defensively at first but has been much, much better since…I saw something talking about how UZR sometimes “has trouble” with first basemen in cases like that because they don’t get as many chances and thus a bad start can kill it for a season, but I may have misinterpreted the point of the article).
I would still like to know if UZR does take into account a first baseman fielding throws from other infielders.
As to their relative contributions to the first month of the 2009 season, on May 1 Joe Mauer, just off the DL, had made 4 plate appearances and was batting .667. In his absence, replacement catchers Mike Redmond, Brian Bischer, and Jose Morales were 26/92, or .283. The Twins were 11-11.
At the end of play that same day, Mark Teixeira had made 95 PA’s and was batting .189. The Yanks were 12-10, and I doubt that we can attribute their better team record to Teixeira’s defense. Or offense. And Teixiera is a fine ballplayer.
Catchers do not play as much as first basemen, for the obvious reason. Catchers who have had surgery as particularly restricted.
“I figured since everyone here is talking about how perfect UZR is…”
I’m confused here, Kyle. What blog have you been reading? It seems to me that Joe AND various readers have admitted to the imperfections of UZR. In the previous Mauer thread, you can learn the truth regarding UZR’s lack of accounting for “scoops” by 1Bmen along with Teixeira’s 2009 scoop totals.
Perhaps you’re being distracted by the numerous, logically sound arguments against Kepner’s fallacious indictment of defensive metrics. Those arguments do not prove that UZR is perfect, only that Mr. Kepner is not.
Mauer, thus far tonight:
2-3, 2b, HR
As to Teixeira making the difference for the Yankees’ success, on the morning of May 8, the Yankees were 13-15 and Tex was batting .192.
A-Rod played his first game of the season, and since then the Yankees are 61-29. Does that mean A-Rod “made the difference” and should be MVP? Hardly. Coincidence doesn’t mean causality. Rodriguez’s return helped. It’s a team game.
Burnett and Sabathia (both new to the team) have aced 316 innings. [Does that mean they "made the difference" and should be co-Cy Youngs? Please. . . ] Pettitte has been steady enough. Damon has the highest OPS+ of his career. Cano is maturing. Last year, Posada hit two home runs beginning May 8 and was done for the season on July 19. This year, Posada has hit ten since that date and isn’t done. Melky is playing better. Jeter has more PA’s than Tex, despite playing a more demanding defensive position. Switching Jeter and Damon in the lineup has worked so far. From May 8 to the break, Aceves pitched 39 innings at 2.31. Since June 1, Hughes has been in 26 games at 1.85. Mariano is Mariano.
Beginning May 8, Teixeira has hit .309, OPS .996. He’s a fine ballplayer.
more mauer!
Now Mauer is a triple shy of the cycle. More Mauer Pauer!
KyleLitke:
The people over at fangraphs.com wrote a decent piece on the subject of Teixeira’s UZR rating versus the perception of his defense.
The most salient part, for me: Teixeira’s UZR is -1.8 (or maybe -0.8), which rates him as essentially league average; his Dewan plus/minus score is +1, which also rates him as league average. These defensive metrics do not indict Teixeira for being a bad defensive first baseman, they merely indicate that he is league average, and average defense from a first baseman is not as valuable as average defense from a catcher. And of course Mauer is not an average defensive catcher, or so we all agree, lacking any UZR data for rating catchers.
finishes 3-5 tonight (8/17)
leads AL in OPS by a wide margin
loves his mower
Joe was 3-5 tonight and is now hitting .380. We’ll see, too bad he had to bat that last time. And it’s too bad the Twins suck this year, but at least he is giving us Twins fans something to cheer about.
I think people don’t understand how great this guy is. He is on pace to win his 3rd batting title in 5 (or maybe 6 years). That’s amazing for anyone, let alone a catcher. Frankly, there are reasons to think he could be the best player playing the game today. He should at least be in the top 5. He is starting to hit for power this year too.
The idiot Twins will probably drive him away by low balling him on his next contract. Heaven forbid, they offer him market value.
Mauer might not get enough of the those gaudy counting stats the writers like because he missed a month of the season.
If he doesn’t win the MVP award again this year it will be a shame because he should have won it in 06 and 08. So this will basically be the third time he deserved the award and didn’t get it.
Mauer goes 3 for 5 with a home run, lifting his batting average up to .380, and the Twins still lost.
We all know that the Twins aren’t winning because of their abysmal pitching (4.96 ERA by starters, 4.69 overall, 23rd in the majors). Mauer has a great arm, but how much of the Twins’ pitching woes can be attributed to Mauer, and should it matter if it proves to be a lot?
Somewhat off topic but still funny:
Tonight I was at the White Sox/Royals game with my girlfriend and some others (Banny vs. Buehrle? Yes, please!). Betancorpse comes up with 2 on and I begin to explain to my girlfriend just how awful he is. She knows baseball, but not to any sabermetric level, so I keep it simple: he can’t hit, field, run, or do much of anything required to be a good baseball player. And then I said, “But because I’m talking crap about him, here comes the three-run home run.”
Two pitches later, he went deep. Oops.
Even more amazing, later in the game he walked against Buehrle. Mark Buehrle, who walks nobody, walked Yuniesky Betancourt, who always got in trouble in school for running in the halls (get it? he doesn’t walk. That wasn’t funny. Sorry.). Strange, wonderful things happen in baseball.
“how much of the Twins’ pitching woes can be attributed to Mauer, and should it matter if it proves to be a lot?”
-Considering a lot of the Twins pitchers have seemed to over-achieve over the past couple of years with Mauer catching them it probably isn’t his fault. Perhaps more of a regression to the mean thing this year?
-How do you propose to prove it? I’m not aware of a reliable way to measure a catcher’s effect on a pitching staff.
Congrats to Mauer. Watching a hitter chase .400 is always exciting and yes he is the MVP of the AL so far I think.