Mauer Power 8.16
Posted: August 15th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 67 Comments »
Well, a three-for-five day for Joe Mauer and the batting average is up to .378. The guy’s freaking amazing.
Four quick thoughts in our Mauer Power update:
1. I enjoyed Tyler Kepner’s response to my response to his Tweet about how Mark Teixeira is obviously the league MVP. It’s amazing how the media world works these days. Tyler’s good people, and I think he regrets using the word “obviously.” And In retrospect, I think I overreacted anyway … largely because I’m such a huge Joe Mauer fan and feel like he has been jobbed out of two MVP awards already, and I can see enough people over the next few weeks writing that Teixeira is the MVP until it becomes common thought and conventional wisdom. Gotta get ahead of the curve on that one. Mauer is the only obvious MVP. And I’ll keep writing that in the hope that it catches on.
Yes, I fear that people are not appreciating just how remarkable a season Mauer is having. It’s unprecedented. Look he did miss the first month and catchers don’t catch every day. And at the end of the day, some people will not vote a player MVP if his team doesn’t make the playoffs. At the end of the day, some people will base their vote around counting stats and memories of big hits. At the end of the day, Mark Teixeira is having an excellent year, and the Yankees are probably baseball’s best team, and I don’t get to define what MVP means. Teixeira could win. And the world will keep spinning.
But, I’m going to keep on pushing the guy I think is the clear-cut choice.
2. Just as an aside: Why is Teixeira this year’s Yankees candidate and not Jeter? Sure, Teixeira’s power numbers are pretty impressive, but Jeter plays shortstop (and for once the numbers suggest he’s playing a darned good shortstop) and he’s having a classic Jeter offensive season (And not significantly different from the season Dustin Pedroia had last year as MVP). I don’t know … Jeter’s 35 now and you never know how much longer he will keep putting up these sorts of years. And he’s never won the MVP. You would think people would get behind him.
3. One more aside … I put this down without further comment:
Mark Teixera
Home: .308/.397/.634, 19 homers, 50 RBIs.
Road: .267/.374/.493, 11 homers, 36 RBIs.
4. No, I don’t think Joe Mauer is going to hit .400. I started this Mauer Power thing as a lark, and it’s still mostly a lark. But … he’s now five-for-eight since I started. So, what the heck, we keep going until the dream collapses.
Mauer to date
349 at-bats
132 hits
Batting average: .378 average.
What he’s got to do the rest of the way
176 at-bats
78 hits
Batting average: .443
Final numbers
525 at-bats
210 hits
Batting average: .400
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Circle me, Joe.
It may be too soon, but I think you might get a lot more people on the Mauer bandwagon by using your newfound clout at SI.
Maybe?
Joe, if you watched the Yankees play as often as I do, you’d realize that Teixeira’s defense is a big reason why Jeter’s fielding stats have improved in 2009. He’s exceptional, regardless of what your advanced stats might tell you. It’s no coincidence that the Yankees broke the consecutive games without an error record earlier this year.
I think this years flirtation is due to the newfound power. It’s hard get a glove on balls hit out of the park and rocketed into gaps.
And I’ll keep writing that in the hope that it catches on.
I hope you do, Joe. And it would be better if you took that new job for a spin while you did: you’ll have a lot more influence saying it in SI than on JoeBlog.
I say this because I think back to 1997, when – interestingly enough – another catcher, Mike Piazza was jobbed for the NL MVP when Larry Walker won. (Oh, when I think of it – the Humanity!).
Compare, unadjusted:
366/452/720 from a corner outfielder playing in that video game of a park, Coors Field (ie. pre-humidor).
362/431/638 from a *catcher* playing in the Grand Canyon otherwise known as Chavez Ravine.
For clarity:
Walker – 178 OPS+
Piazza – 185 OPS+ (best in the league)
Anyway, I remember the influence of SI on that race because late in the year they ran an hagiography on Walker that pretty much cemented him as the (undeserving) MVP. It talked about how Walker did all the little things while Piazza was pretty much a glorified DH; and it cited one instance from a game where Piazza was on 2nd, and was held at 3rd on a basehit, where obviously he should have scored, and clearly Walker would have. This particularly sticks in my mind because I remember arguing with 3 different friends about Piazza not only being deserving, but being *hands down* deserving. And all three cited that instance where Piazza should have scored from second, when Walker clearly would have…at least, so said the gospel – SI.
So get to it, Joe. Be sure to go beyond the numbers and reference some quick throw to first Mauer made that may not have nabbed the runner, but held him close enough that when the batter singled on the next pitch, the runner didn’t make it to 3rd because he was sticking so close to 1st…(’cause *that’s* what they’ll remember)
I have to admit I thought he had no chance to hit .400 after his average fell to around .350. Hitting .469 (!) throughout August has made up for his July swoon (only .309). He did go 1-22 at one point in July, so I guess he is human.
I don’t think he’ll make .400, but let’s see if he can get .375.
Since 1941, there have only been 6 seasons of .375:
1948 Stan Musial .376
1958 Ted Williams .388
1977 Rod Carew .388
1980 George Brett .390
1994 Tony Gwynn (strike-shortened) .394
1999 Larry Walker (hit .461 at Coors) .379
I have to say, having just read Kepner’s justification, I’m unimpressed. Perhaps professional courtesy prevents Joe from saying the obvious, so I will: Kepner is a dolt.
But how can that statistic [UZR] be valid when it says Teixeria has had a negative defensive impact?
“Because, you know, *we* know Teixeira is a great defensive player, so, well, uh … QED”…
Why stop there? I mean, right – how can you trust batting average as a stat, when it shows Yuni Betancourt hitting .213 for the Royals when we *know* he’s a better hitter than that…
He then segues into the dishonest by retreating to what he calls “traditional” statistics – because they, sorta, boost his argument (well, they show that Teixeira does not lead the AL in HRs. Or RBIs. Or BA.). Using more *accurate* metrics of actual performance – say OPS+, Teixeira is the 4th(*) best first baseman in the AL, never mind MVP – behind Morneau, Youkilis (who also plays on a contender), and Cabrera (1st place team), (lets not forget that Teixeira now plays his homegames in a stadium that has quickly become Coors Field East).
*Carlos Pena, another 1st baseman on a contending team, despite hitting .214, is actually having a pretty decent year. Well, sure, how can you put him in the same class as Mark Teixeira – after all Tex is hitting 74 points higher than him! Well, Mauer is hitting 90(!!) points better than Teixeira. In short, Teixeira is *closer* (much closer) to Pena in performance (146 vs. 119 OPS+) than he is to Mauer (146 vs. 186 OPS+). And that’s before considering the defensive position.
So to cap off, Kepner fails miserably to persuade, then drifts into the childish justification that he’ll be vindicated by conventional wisdom.
Be sure to also mention that diving tag at home to throw out a diving Brett Gardner at Yankee Stadium in May. Epic.
Assuming that the NY writer is right and UZR is totally off, Teixeira would have to be a +17.5 runs at first base to even warrant mention with Mauer WITHOUT considering Mauer’s defense.
If Mauer played his home games in the Bronx Bandbox, he would be threatening Hugh Duffy, and Disney/Murdoch would be pushing him for a statue in Monument Cave, let alone MVP.
One more thing, because this faux-justification that an MVP has to come from a playoff team just grates on me. It’s the league most valuable player (the definition says: “Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense”; it seems to me this can be valued pretty easily: if you could choose one player’s performance to add to your team, which player would it be? (in this way the ” *actual* value” is adjudged independently of the team – just as the award describes).
If you add the (unstated) value that it must come from a playoff team, you are essentially valuing the marginal utility of *all* the players on the playoff team higher than that of the *actual* MVP. This is the kind of thinking that would have us value Francisco Cabrera as the 1992 NL MVP. After all, without him the Braves don’t make the World Series (and to further cement my case for Cabrera, it was the slightly off-line throw by the supposed “actual” MVP Barry Bonds that allowed the winning run to score…).
But anyway, I recognize that “best player on a playoff team” is one long-applied, if mistaken, criteria. Except, until it isn’t. Remember Albert Belle’s monster 1995 season (50 HRs, 50 2Bs)? Well, he lost to the clearly inferior (by any metric, traditional or sabremetric) Mo Vaughn. That year, the very same knuckleheads who trot out the “best player on a playoff team” argument threw us a curve: The Indians were so good they would have won *without* Belle (this is the same demented logic that led, perhaps apocryphally, Branch Rickey to nix Ralph Kiner’s request for a raise on the grounds that the Pirates finished 8th with him, they could finish 8th without him). So, in short, there seems to be a caveat to the “best player on a playoff team”, when the playoff team is *far* superior to the competition.
Well, lets look at the teams this year. Is there any question that – just offensively – the Yankees, as a team, are better than the Red Sox (where Teixeira MVP rival 1B man Youkilis plays) or the Tigers (where MVP candidate 1b man Cabrera plays)? The Yankees have scored 649 runs, the Sox 591, and my Tigers (a rather woeful) 528. And we know this difference isn’t attributable to Teixeira because he is slightly less efficient than either Youkilis or Cabrera. I mean, if we are to use the 1995 MVP exception as a guide, isn’t Cabrera this year’s MVP? Where would the Tigers be without *him*? Warding off the Royals for 4th in the AL Central, that’s where…
I say this all in jest (ie. that the 1995 Mo Vaughn rule should apply) to make a larger point. Kepner’s article concludes, rather haughtily, with the notion that he will be proven right by conventional thinking. But the fact is – and my point – there *isn’t* a reliable convention. People decide on who they want as their MVP, and *then* they start to rationalize it. That’s the only way to explain the (inexcusable) Mo Vaughn selection, among countless others.
So lets get back to basics and give the award to the *individual*, without reward to that person for playing on a better team than his MVP contenders. And lets stop imputing criteria (ie. “best player on a playoff team”) that don’t exist. Give the award to the player whose performance would have most helped *any* team.
Well, as a proud Canadian, I’m not going to stand by and let someone slag my boy, Larry Walker!
Walker’s home-away splits for 1997…
Home: .384/.460/.709 for a 1.169 OPS
Away: .346/.443/.733 for a 1.176 OPS
So by the numbers, Walker was actually BETTER away from Coors Field, albeit in 36 fewer road plate appearances. You can definitely make arguments that Piazza deserved the MVP that year, but writing Walker off as a Coors creation is not one of them.
Any defensive statistic that says Mark Teixeira is having a poor, a below average, or a so-so glove year in 2009 is — to be kind — sucking the pipe.
Not that that invalidates Mauer’s rightful stranglehold on the MVP. But the “Teix’s subpar fielding” premise is unadulterated goat poo.
Be sure to also mention that diving tag at home to throw out a diving Brett Gardner at Yankee Stadium in May. Epic.
I know (or at least I pray) that this is sarcasm. And it reminds me of another stupidity in Kepner’s article – in fact, one that I mention above that still haunts me from 1997: argument by anecdote. Look, at the end of any season, a New York writer is going to have a notebook full of stories of amazing plays made over the course of the year by a New York team. But guess what? The Twins beat writer will have just as full a notebook of highlight plays by Twin players, as will the Tigers’ beat writer and the Bosox scribes of their home teams.
Why does Teixeira’s June 2nd takeout slide(*) rank higher than a Mauer strike to 2nd that nabs the potential tying runner who was trying to steal? The only difference is that Kepner saw one but not the other. Imagine the arrogance of a guy to think that what *he* sees must be the only things that matter [if a tree falls in the forest, does it make a sound? If Kepner wasn't there, it couldn't have fallen...].
[*Don't even get me started on the idea that a guy "won" a game with a takeout slide...did Teixeira pitch too? Did he strike out 27 batters?]
I mean, Kepner’s argument boils down to this: using only “traditional” stats, Teixeira is – well,
a) not leading the AL in HRs (that’s Pena, a 1b MVP candidate – don’t laugh – as I mention above he’s closer to Teixeira than Teixeira is to Mauer);
b) he’s not leading in RBI (that’s Morneau, another 1b who’s otherwise having a better season than Teixeira);
c) and he’s not leading in BA (that’s another MVP rival, Mauer).
OK: so he trails other MVP candidates in some of the traditional stats, but this somehow makes the argument for Teixeira as MVP.
And then, looking at his defense, we *can’t* look at stats, because they fail to show Teixeira’s obvious brilliance. In fact his defensive brilliance is so self-evident that any evidence to the contrary is flawed, and *this* further boosts the argument that Teixeira is the MVP.
But to top it off, Teixeira somehow defied the rules of baseball (and physics) and induced 27 defensive outs and single-handedly accumulated sufficient offense with two mere baserunning plays in June to give the Yankees two otherwise undeserved wins.
So, to summarize Kepner logic: traditional batting stats put Teixeira behind fellow MVP candidates, which shows Teixeira’s MVP-worthiness. The failure of defensive stats to show Teixeira’s defensive brilliance further demonstrates Teixeira’s value. And Teixeira made two game-winning plays in June (and we know that we know no other MVP candidate made any similar game-winning plays because Kepner didn’t see them; if he didn’t see them it could not have happened).
QED, Kepner is a jackass.
#12: Hey bro, I’m a Canadian too (and thus, by definition, a Larry Walker fan). But facts are facts.
Anyway, you are absolutely right about Walker’s Home/Away splits from 1997. And just as interesting is that *Piazza’s* home/away splits were virtually identical too. But, this misses two important points.
1. We *know* Coors Field helps all batters (just compare Walker pre- and post- Coors). Just because his splits were similar doesn’t mean he didn’t benefit. And we know that Dodger stadium hurts all batters.
2. But the more important fallacy is this: forget for a minute whether or not Walker was helped by Coors – let us even say he wasn’t. It’s still irrelevant to the issue of value. When the league averages 4.5 runs per game per team, but, say *6.5* runs per game per team in Coors, it means runs produced in Coors are less *valuable*. IOW, it doesn’t matter whether or not Walker was helped by Coors, by definition what he did produce there was less valuable because of all the runs that were otherwise being scored by everybody. And the flip side of the coin is, it doesn’t matter whether or not Chavez Ravine actually hurt Piazza – let’s say it didn’t. Because of the otherwise low level of runs scored there, Piazza’s tremendous production – despite the bad ballpark – was all the more valuable. Or, put it this way: assume both Piazza and Walker each produced 1 run worth of offense per game. When Piazza is doing it in a ballpark where teams are averaging, say, 3 runs a game, *his* 1 run per game is a lot more valuable than Walker’s, because Walker’s 1 run per game comes in games where the teams are each scoring, say, 6.5/game. And that, in essence, is why Piazza had an OPS+ of 185 vs. Walker’s OPS+ of 178 (ie. OPS+ adjusts for ballpark) even though Walker’s raw OPS was (not insignificantly) higher than Piazza’s.
It should be noted that UZR, as it currently stands, does not attempt to measure how well the first basemen picks up or “scoops” or “digs” errant throws from other infielders. And I’ve heard from a few sources that this is exactly the area of Teixeira’s expertise. So it stands to reason that UZR might be underrating Teixeira a bit.
It should also be noted, however, that even the best scooping first basemen provide only about 5 runs worth of value a year in this aspect of the game (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/first-basemen-scoops). It should also be noted that Teixeira, as of two weeks ago, had accumulated 22 scoops this year, good for 9th most in the majors (http://actasports.com/sow.php?id=220). So it doesn’t seem as though he provides too much extra value here.
Also, for those of you who are so quick to dismiss UZR’s evaluation of Teixeira this year, I’ve yet to hear a rebuttal that amounts to much more than “You obviously haven’t seen him this year. He’s been really good. Believe me.” Do you really trust your own eyes that much? Joe has also noted that Dewan’s +/- is down on him this year as well. Perhaps you overrate Tex after watching that mustachioed DH attempt to play first so often last year.
Any defensive statistic that says Mark Teixeira is having a poor, a below average, or a so-so glove year in 2009 is — to be kind — sucking the pipe.
That’s a pretty hard premise to justify, isn’t it?
How can David Ortiz only have 16 HRs? How can he only be hitting .221? How could his OBP be .311 and his SLG .411? Since we all *know* Ortiz to be superhuman with the bat, doesn’t this call into question the legitimacy of HR, BA, OBP and SLG? No? Isn’t this the same logic?
Imagine trying to assess who the best hitter was without resort to counting hits, 2Bs, HRs, BBs. Remember John Olerud? Man that guy had a pretty swing. In fact, if it *weren’t* for objective measures like BA/OBP/SLG (although he was no slouch), I’d swear Olerud was the best hitter in baseball – I mean, really – man what a sweet stroke.
So we know we can’t rely on our (flawed human) perception* to tell us who the best hitters are, so why do we think we can get by without objective measures for defense? Jeter gets all kinds of accolades for his defense because he’s always diving (hence the nickname “Pasta Diving” Jeter). Well, Carney Lansford dove all the time too, and the stats showed him to be putrid at actually converting balls into outs. Cal Ripken, OTH, wasn’t very flashy at all, but he was exceptional at turning ground balls into outs. Maybe this tells us that diving isn’t an adequate measure of defensive ability. After all, a player need not move his feet at all, and can still dive. Similarly, an outfielder who is poorly positioned or gets a bad jump on a ball might still make what looks to be an exceptional play by diving or leaping; but if a well positioned player who got a good jump on the ball made the play look effortless, should we discount their defense because it doesn’t *look* spectacular?
[*This brings to mind a great bit on FireJoeMorgan once about one of his game comments. In the middle of one game, he turned to Jon Miller and asked if he knew who hit the hardest line drives. Now, to be sure, he wasn't asking Miller for *his* opinion, he was asking as if there was an objective answer, like something you could google. Miller threw out a guess, and Morgan says, "nope - Al Oliver". As in, that's the only acceptable answer, and I can't believe you didn't know this. What's the matter, don't you use Wikipedia?...ha! stumped *you*, didn't I?]
Mauer has to win the MVP, right? He’s having an astonishing offensive season, which is made more amazing by the fact that he’s a catcher. Despite the fact that no metric has been created to accurately measure catching, he’s considered to be a really good one. So, he’s having a great offensive season and he’s a great fielder and he plays a position where no one plays like that. If that’s not MVP material, I don’t know what is.
Just for fun, I went on fangraphs and began sorting out AL leaders in various stats. I suspect he’ll lose a lot of votes b/c, on the surface, his HR numbers aren’t gaudy and he won’t wind up with a ton of RBI…such a shame. But in the categories that actually tell you something? Well…he’s got a .28 advantage in wOBA, he leads the league in SLG., he leads the league in OBP by a comfortable margin…and again he does all of this as a fraggin’ catcher! The dude is arguably the best hitter in the AL and also is a good catcher. This has to be his year, right?
Note–when I say his HR numbers aren’t gaudy “on the surface” I mean to say that his HR total isn’t likely to make anyone weak in the knees just by quickly glancing at it…I think it’s amazing a guy with no history of power output has slammed 21 in 90 games, so to ME he’s having a hell of a HR season, but I’m sure others wouldn’t look at it that way…
Forgive me, but I had the itch to look for that Morgan story, and I came up with the actual transcript – and it’s actually much funnier than what I describe. Behold, and marvel:
“Jon, I gotta ask you a trivia question. I was fishing with Matt Franco, used to play for the Mets. I was fishing with him on a boat, and Matt Franco asked me this trivia question. He said he had talked to players past and present. He asked me, Which guy hit the hardest line drives most consistently of all I’d ever seen. Hardest line drives.”- Joe Morgan
“That’s a trivia question?”- Jon Miller
“Well, it was for me and him. We were playing trivia on the fishing boat.”- Joe
“Where would I look up the answer to that?”- Jon
“Well, you should know the answer!”- Joe
“Give me the question one more time.”- Jon
“All right. Who hits the hardest line drives of any player you ever saw on a consistent basis?”- Joe
“Dave Winfield.”- Jon
“All right, keep going. That’s one. That’s “A”. “A” wasn’t right.- Joe
[Loud Laughs] “Yes it was right! I beg to differ!”- Jon
“I’m gonna give you, uhh … I’m gonna give … I’m gonna give you a hint. You even broadcast games for him.”- Joe
[Long Pause] “I broadcast Dave Winfield’s games.”- Jon
“No … for the answer, I’m talking about. I’m telling you, he asked all the other players. I’m not saying—”- Joe
“Well, I’m saying, this is a question for which there is no correct answer.”- Jon
“Yeah, there’s a correct answer.”- Joe
“Well, what did you say? What was your answer? Did you get it right?”- Jon
“Yes.” [pause] “Al Oliver.”- Joe
“Oh, Al Oliver. He was—”- Jon
“See!”- Joe
“He was a very good line drive hitter.”- Jon
“I knew you would say that. See, I knew that you’d eventually come up with the answer.”- Joe
Jeter for MVP? I see what you’re trying to do… split the vote for Mr. Mauer’s sake. You clever JoeMauerforMVPpresident you.
#16: Nice point about “scoops”. The one element of Teixeira’s defense that is supposedly underrated is, apparently, overrated (although not unimportant). And, of course, UZR doesn’t measure pitches in the dirt that Mauer might block either (naturally, I have no way of knowing whether Mauer is any good at this or not – and unlike Kepner, I’ll remain agnostic when I don’t know).
“People decide on who they want as their MVP, and *then* they start to rationalize it. That’s the only way to explain the (inexcusable) Mo Vaughn selection, among countless others.”
Bingo, McKingford. Hit the nail on the head.
And as for every other subjective situation ever…
“People [subconsciously] decide on [what] they want… and then they start to rationalize it.”
Sure it’s a bit silly to insist that an MVP absolutely has to be on a playoff team, but I don’t think you should completely discount team’s position in the standings either.
If Adam Dunn goes on a historic tear the rest of the year and finishes with 65 homers, is he the NL MVP? Maybe he should be, maybe he shouldn’t. But shouldn’t we at least give a LITTLE bit of “extra credit” to guys like Pujols, HRam, and Utley, whose performances came in the pressure-packed situations of close pennant races?
Now of course the counter to that is to say it isn’t Dunn’s fault that the rest of his team is lousy. And that’s completely true, and I’m not saying he should be utterly dismissed from MVP consideration just because his team is in last. But is it wrong to consider the fact that Pujols went to the park knowing he needed to perform to stave off the Cubs, and Dunn had no such pressure? Shouldn’t that enter into the equation… even if it’s just a little bit?
Honestly, I don’t know. That’s why this is such a fun conversation to have every year.
To be fair, McKingford, defensive statistics are not nearly as etched in stone as offensive statistics. There have been some serious fluctuations and flaws in them. Derek Jeter went from being the worst SS in baseball far and away in his early thirties, to a top-ten SS in his mid-thirties. Also, UZR is notoriously balky in small sample sizes, and has trouble measuring the effect fielders have on each other (for example, a very rangy 3B undermining a SS). It also struggles with causation: when a player goes from having a good year to a bad year or visa versa, there are no peripheral statistics to explain why or how it happened like BABiP or batted ball breakdowns on offense (discounting physical injury to the player). That’s not making excuses for Teixeira–I absolutely believe Mauer should be the MVP until proven otherwise–but putting faith into any defensive metric in the same way as OPS is an unwise decision.
(By the way, the person you chewed out for the Gardner comment was talking about a spectacular play Mauer made to get the speedy Yankee, Brett Gardner, at the plate. But you did destroy a very beautiful strawman.)
Anything Kepner says should be ignored after he wrote this: “Just Friday, I went to Borders specifically to see if Joe’s book on the 1975 Cincinnati Reds, The Machine, was out yet. (It’s not.)”
Clearly he hasn’t heard of The Internets, which might have told him that the book was coming out on 9/9/09! (Despite the fact that he said he love’s Joe’s writing, which feature just a couple of references to that date…) Instead he needed to “see it with his own eyes” by wandering out to the store. Just as Tex’s defensive stats can’t possibly contradict those eyes of his.
What a maroon…
To be fair, I’m not necessarily trying to make an argument for Teixeira and could argue that ARod has had a bigger impact on the Yanks fortunes than Tex since his return. My point was it’s unfair to discount Teixeira’s defensive prowess based on UZR. He doesn’t just scoop, he stretches, he leaps, he’s like plastic man and always seems to be in position to make a play. He makes Cano look like Sandberg and is single handedly adding a couple of years to Jeter’s next contract. Cano has 5 errors this year through 116 games. He’s on pace for 6.8 over 159, last year he had 13. His fielding percentage is .991, which beats his best year by seven tenths. Jeter has 6 errors in 110 games, he’s on pace for 8 over 148 games. That would be a career low. His fielding percentage is currently .986. That matches a career high set in 1998. Again, no coincidence.
#11: “But anyway, I recognize that “best player on a playoff team” is one long-applied, if mistaken, criteria. Except, until it isn’t. Remember Albert Belle’s monster 1995 season (50 HRs, 50 2Bs)? Well, he lost to the clearly inferior (by any metric, traditional or sabremetric) Mo Vaughn. That year, the very same knuckleheads who trot out the “best player on a playoff team” argument threw us a curve: The Indians were so good they would have won *without* Belle (this is the same demented logic that led, perhaps apocryphally, Branch Rickey to nix Ralph Kiner’s request for a raise on the grounds that the Pirates finished 8th with him, they could finish 8th without him). So, in short, there seems to be a caveat to the “best player on a playoff team”, when the playoff team is *far* superior to the competition.”
I’m really glad you brought this up, because this issue has long driven me crazy too, i.e. player X can’t possibly be most valuable, in effect, because his teammates are so good.
Unfortunately, you folks on this site are trying to make rational arguments, but this is not about rational argument. It’s about philosophy. You hear those people (the Kepners of the world) say it’s the most VALUABLE player, with the emphasis on that word implying that a player is only “valuable” if they help a team win the pennant, AND if that player appears to have a disproportionate impact on the outcome. Tex is getting so much love this year (and I say this as a die-hard Yankee fan) precisely BECAUSE they Yankees didn’t make the playoffs last year, and have had truly terrible 1B play in the field since Tino left, and so he therefore can be seen as “making the difference.” (Forget about CC, and Burnett, and Hughes, and Posada’s return from injury, and Jeter’s resurgence, etc.) Yes, you can rationally point out that by that logic, Francisco Cabrera (or Bucky Dent in 1978) should therefore be MVP, but that’s being rational, while to these people it’s who they “feel” is most valuable.
My point was it’s unfair to discount Teixeira’s defensive prowess based on UZR. He doesn’t just scoop, he stretches, he leaps, he’s like plastic man and always seems to be in position to make a play.
You see what you are doing here? You are discounting UZR because Teixeira scoops, stretches and leaps. IOW, you are discounting UZR even though it doesn’t even pretend to measure those attributes.
But more importantly, as Mike points out at #16, even when giving him credit for those magnificent scoops, it still doesn’t add a whole lot of value. Assume what you say is true – that’s the equivalent of about a dozen more hits in a year. If Teixeira had 12 more hits this year it would be worth about 10 points of BA – so that instead of trailing Mauer by 90 points of BA, he’d be trailing by 80. Is that really an argument you want to make?
Kepner:
“But how can that statistic be valid when it says Teixeria has had a negative defensive impact?”
=
“But how can that statistic be valid when I don’t like it?”
BTW- there are, as someone already pointed out many- well not many, but quite a few who have won MVPs on non-playoff teams- Carew in ‘77 pops to the mind of this Twins fan. I thought (not an original thought with me, of course) that when Morneau won his MVP he was the 3rd best player on his own team! Anyway, as a fellow Cretin, I’m pulling for Joe!
Cano has 5 errors this year through 116 games.
Yes, and 3 of them are throwing errors. Last year he had 4 throwing errors – so he’s pretty much on pace to have exactly the same number of throwing errors. His decrease in errors is *solely* the product of cutting down on his fielding and catching errors.
I’m pleading with you Joe, make these “circle me” comments end. If I read one more my eyes are going to bleed. While you’re at it ban Twins fans from Kauffman. They’re just too jolly.
Maybe you can start posting numbers on what Teixeira has to do for the remainder of the season to reach Mauer’s BA/OBP/SLG.
Just a question, does UZR and Dewey +/- take into account receiving throws at first? No idea if this would help Texeria’s numbers since I haven’t seen the Yankees much this season.
yes, well, the “team would not have made the playoffs without him” argument is a strange one.
I know that position is not that finely applied as that, but, if a team makes it by 1-2-3 games, close, then I would think that that team (hell, say the Yankees) could have half a dozen MVP candidates. The argument makes Johnny Damon more “valuable” than, say, Pablo Sandoval.
It reminds me of the chapter in the BP book of a few years ago where they “valued” A-Rod. They came right out and stated that in a certain season, if the Yankees had had a replacement level player at 3rd, the Yankees would have finished first anyway. Thus, vis-a-vis in “helping to make the playoffs” A-Rod was worth nothing. So by that logic, probably no-one on the Yanks was responsible for them being in the postseason.
It’s a bizarre argument, IMHO, looking at it from either direction. Perhaps one can call it the Belle-paradox.
I’m all for just “best player”.
It kills me when people say, “Mauer won’t hit .400.” Isn’t it fun to believe it is possible because, y’know, it is? The math is there. It is improbable, sure, but it isn’t interesting to make a “prediction” of the improbable. It is WAY more fun to hang onto the hope.
So, Mauer is going to bat .400. Watch and see.
Mauer’s going up against Aaron Laffey today.
His career line vs. Laffey:
13 PA
.500/.615/.800
1 HR
3 BB
Small sample size, yes, but still. May be another 3-hit day for Joe.
Question: Does UZR account for the following in the context of 1B defense—
-scoops on poor throws from infielders and poor pickoff throws from pitchers that would otherwise be errors?
-putouts on pop fouls?
-positioning of the player relative to where a ball is hit?
-playing surface conditions (ie: Wrigley elephant grass vs. artificial surface?
Joe Mauer is currently on pace to hit .370 with 30 homers, 100 RBI, and 100 runs scored. In the last 60 years only two players have put up that kind of line: Larry Walker in 1999 and Todd Helton in 2000. Both of those guys played in Colorado.
So a CATCHER is on pace to do something only a pair of Rockies playing at the height of the steroid era have been able to accomplish in the last 60 years. How is that not an obvious choice for MVP?
Don’t worry, Mauer will get his due when he gets to New York or Boston in 2011.
#32 “Cano has 5 errors this year through 116 games.
Yes, and 3 of them are throwing errors. Last year he had 4 throwing errors – so he’s pretty much on pace to have exactly the same number of throwing errors. His decrease in errors is *solely* the product of cutting down on his fielding and catching errors”
Huh? How would you know if Cano is afflicted this year with Steve Sax disease and throws a ball in the dirt that Teixeira digs out once a game? The short answer is, you wouldn’t because it isn’t being measured. Which seems to go to the central objection to UZR. Most proponents including Joe admit that it fails to include many factors but it is better than what we had to go on before ie: fielding percentage. That’s fine as a relative statement but is akin to saying that an axe makes a better scalpel than a guillotine.
It’s hard to believe Jeter is 35. He is truly the King of New York.
Honestly, Teixeira hasn’t even been the best 1B in the AL East this year (Kevin Youkilis has been by the numbers). It’s a joke if Teixeira wins the MVP, especially considering the home/road splits and the pathetic bandbox of a park that is George’s Palace.
Hopefully Mauer continues his run at .400 at makes all of this talk moot.
#44 re: splits
Is there any data measuring exactly how far Teixeira’s HR’s at the Stadium have traveled this year? Or is it something you just “know”. If so, anecdotally I can tell you most of them would have been out of Yellowstone Park. Maybe we can re-purpose a few members of the UZR team to get some “exact” numbers.
Things UZR DOESN’T measure:
-Teixeira’s grittiness
-how much Kepner loves Teixeira
-how much fun the Yankees clubhouse is with Jetes and Tex clowning around, and trading groupie stories and stuff
-how the aforementioned clubhouse looseness allows all the other Yankees to play better baseball
-the pipe Tex swings (not his bat)
-Teixeira’s performance against the Red Sox (when being a good Yankee counts the most)
-how well Teixeira’s teammates play baseball
#46
So that’s in addition to the relevant omissions? Wow, it’s even more flawed than suspected. How can this be? Is there a tear in the time space contiuum?
Which acronym measures the effect on an individual’s offensive performance while playing in different divisions with a weighted schedule?
If you eliminate the team record in deciding an MVP (ie playoff team), then how about considering one of my hometown Jays? AKA Aaron Hill?
Yeah his averages don’t “wow” anyone but his overall season is beyond “wowing” considering where he was 12 months ago. His 28 homers puts him 3rd in the AL (6 more than Mauer) and his 80 RBIs has him 5th in the AL. He has played in 114 of the 116 games the Jays have played (I don’t see how you can name Mauer as MVP when he has barely played 75% of his team’s games). He has had a gold glove caliber season, being involved in 91 double plays with a very solid .990 fielding %. Those rankings are comparable to Tex’s.
The Jays currently sit at 55-31, the Twins at 56-61. The two teams have similar offenses, stat wise. But here’s the kicker: Mauer gets to tee off the crap pitching in the AL Central for a half of the season while Hill has to deal with the AL EAST!
Also, Hill is doing all of this damage as the #2 hitter with only Scutaro being the main guy on base ahead of him. Mauer has Span, (now) Cabrera, and Punto (usually 9th batter). Hill also doesn’t have the protection in the lineup that Mauer has. Both Morneau and Kubel have over .300 AVG and 20 homers (Cuddyer has 19 HR and .270 AVG). For the greater part of the season, Cito had the great tandem (heavy sarcasm) of Rios and Wells hitting behind him. It wasn’t til mid-season that Rolen was moved to clean-up and Lind to 3rd. But even then, Rolen has no power, just hit for a high average (and is currently a Red), and Lind is the only other player on the team with any sort of power threat. Since Rolen was traded, the respectable Overbay has shared the cleanup role with his platoon partner (and every Jays fan’s favourite roster player) KEVIN MILLAR and his phenomenal .231/.309/.379 slash stats.
To put this into further prospective, let’s compare last season’s “MVP” with Aaron Hill thus far (and let’s not forget the Red Sox had a top 3 MLB offense in 2008; the Jays are 10th-ish):
Pedroia: .326/.376/.493 118 R 17HR 83RBI
Hill: .286/.325/.498 69R 28HR 80RBI
Hill is projected to finish with better numbers than Mauer, aside averages.
So here begs the question: if Hill manages to finish with .300/.360/.515, 40 HR and 120 RBI, will he get any MVP consideration?
sorry Jays have 61 losses, not 31.
Oh and if you don’t agree with my point about the pitching differences in the two divisions, lets compare the top pitchers in each division (minus those on the teams the play on):
Central: Lee (gone to Philly), Laffey, Greinke, Verlander, Jackson, Danks, Buerhle.
East: Beckett, Lester, CC, Burnett, Pettitte, Garza, Shields, Bergesen.
Oh and the Indians and Royals are among the bottom feeders in team ERA, while only the Orioles sit there.
You misspelled “Pauer” in the title to this post.
For Mr. Goodface #45:
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/golden_sledgehammer.php
There you go. Teixeira is 54th in average HR distance. Click around the site a little. He leads the AL w/ 14 No Doubters and has only 4 Just Enough homers. So he’s not getting especially lucky in that department (you know besides lucking into a ridiculous stadium where everything flies out to right).
I don’t think Homerun Tracker isn’t run by those dastardly UZR-nerds either, so you might be able to trust it just as much your all-seeing eyes.
Sorry to be the a-hole again, but…
Teix is having a great 2009, but is nowhere CLOSE to being MVP. His home/road split takes him from looking like Babe Ruth at home to middle aged Harold Baines on the road. He’s an average defensive 1B. Joe Mauer is crushing Teixeira statistically in every way (despite lacking the benefit of playing 81 games in a little league ballpark, he is still out OBP’ing and out SLG’ing Teixeira, and he’s a top flight defensive Catcher). Teix MIGHT be in the top 10. The only people in sniffing distance right now of Mauer is wonder boy Evan Longoria and wtf boy Ben Zobrist.
If Teixeira wins the MVP with that road split, he did so for no reason but team record and name on the front of the jersey. And that is absolutely no fair.
“To put this into further prospective, let’s compare last season’s “MVP” with Aaron Hill thus far (and let’s not forget the Red Sox had a top 3 MLB offense in 2008; the Jays are 10th-ish):
Pedroia: .326/.376/.493 118 R 17HR 83RBI
Hill: .286/.325/.498 69R 28HR 80RBI”
So you bash Pedroia even though he was a perfectly viable MVP candidate in 2008, then in the same breath try to pimp another player who plays his same position, currently has about the same SLG as he had in 2008, and an OBP 50 points lower as an MVP candidate.
That’s a strong argument. You’ll fit right in with the pro-Jack Morris, anti-Bert Blyleven crowd.
Tex is having a very nice season, the type of season that you expect a handful of first basemen to have every year.
Mauer is on pace for .377/33/109 and .377/.444/.626 (BTW, resulting OPS is the same as Mike Piazza’s in his ridiculous ‘97). And he plays catcher a heck of a lot more like Johnny Bench than Mike Piazza.
So here are two good topics of debates:
1) Is Mauer having the best season OF ALL TIME by a catcher?
2) Is Mauer or Pujols the best player in baseball this year?
Tex vs. Mauer? That’s not even a legitimate debate, just like Tex vs. Pujols isn’t…and c’mon everyone, please stop throwing in “well, if Tex is in consideration, what about (insert another person having blatantly inferior year to Mauer’s)?”
I get it…it’s New York vs. Minnesota. But even still, do people just not realize the difference in physical demands between catching and any other position in baseball? Try this: go play a few games of fast-pitch softball at first base, then at shortstop, then at catcher. Even at that level, it won’t be hard to figure out what’s the most mentally and physically straining (aind it sure as heck ain’t first base).
At his current pace, Joe Mauer is having the single greatest season ever by a catcher. We should be shaking our heads in wonder the same way we did during the superhuman Bonds as Popeye years. Follow Joe’s example and go tell everyone you know about this year until they tell you “enough already, I get it”…Mauer deserves that kind of word of mouth.
Folks, I agree with you about Mauer over Tex. But primarily it’s NOT about New York. It’s mainly about the “we can’t consider a guy not on a contending team” issue. Given how much they’ve won over the past 40 years, the New York teams are slightly underrepresented in the MVP voting. If it was about New York, Derek Jeter would be home polishing his 1999 and 2006 MVP trophies (he led the league in Win Shares both years).
Mauer should be the MVP, and if the Twins made the playoffs, he would be. But there are far too many voters who won’t even consider a guy not contending for the playoffs, unless possibly he led the league in RBI (which is the other thing most of those people consider).
And yes, I could have lived with Mauer winning the 2006 MVP over Jeter. But Morneau getting it was a RBI column-driven travesty.
So what does Teixeira have to hit the rest of the way to finish at .400?
Yeah, I was wrong to say it was an NY conspiracy, if anything, being a mid market team can perversely help a ballot (see Morneau, Justin, Tejada, Miguel). I like win shares for MVP voting because of their ability to combine the “old school” and “new school” way of thought.
But Jay @ 54, total agreement. Mauer is having a legendary season. He currently has a 186 OPS+. Bench’s highest single season was a 166 OPS+. Yes I know OPS+ kind of stinks so here’s Mauer’s current EqA and Bench’s best season EqA:
Mauer, 2009: .355
Bench, 1972: .342
Bench was probably a better defender but Mauer’s pretty damn good. So seriously, look at that. How can Mauer NOT win the MVP if this keeps up? Missed time? He’ll still lead the AL in WARP/WAR/Win Shares/Whatever else you can think of that begins with “Win” that isn’t “Wins” for a pitcher. If Teixeira wins the MVP, it’s one of the biggest travesties in voting history. How can someone not see Johnny Damon’s 22 HR and not say “hmm, it may be slightly easier to hit HR’s in the current Yankee stadium”? Even if you just look at Teix’s numbers at home vs. Mauer’s overall:
Teix: .308/.397/.634
Mauer: .377/.444/.626
This isn’t close, or at least shouldn’t be.
“Blah blah blah MVP isn’t just stats blah blah blah”, well it should be SORT OF about stats, since, ya know, it’s a record of how well you played.
Man I’m all riled up now.
#42: You’re right – I don’t know if Cano has been saved from Steve Sax ignominy by all the scoops Teixeira’s been making at 1st. But my comment was in response to the point that Cano’s errors were way down this year, which must be Teixeira’s scoopy influence.
IOW, my point is that the reason Cano’s errors are down is that he has fewer fielding and catching errors, *not* fewer throwing errors (which would be the case if Teixeira’s scoopy goodness was bailing him out).
Now you want to argue that Teixeira is saving him from all the errors in a Bizarro World Steve Sax/Chuck Knoblach-time-space-continuum.
#58
I was just having a little fun using the absurd to illustrate my point. Which is UZR can be a nice component in a broader evaluation of defensive competence. But it has enough flaws that it is wildly insufficient to support declarative conclusions about players’ defensive “value” by itself, which many have tried to do.
I think Mauer is having an unbelievable season and may well deserve the MVP. But I’m also one of these luddites who takes a broader view of the definition of “most valuable” that encompasses more than “best statistical season”. In other words, I think there is a necessarily subjective analysis which unfortunately is sometimes subverted by East Coast bias, lifetime achievement considerations, etc. But even if a guy has a season like Babe Ruth in 1927, if it’s on a last place team, how “valuable” was he? Obviously, that’s not the case with Mauer this year. But the subjective element that allows accounting for things like relative success of the team, etc is why it’s a voting award and not strictly a linear accomplishment based on OBP, EqA, (insert your acronym here).
Three things to clarify at first:
1) I’m a Twins fan and I love Joe Mauer;
2) I don’t believe that the MVP has to come from a contending/playoff team; and
3) I think Joe Mauer should be MVP
However…could there be some justification for not voting for Mauer because of his team’s record? The Twins’ starting pitching and bullpen (apart from Joe Nathan) has been lousy this year. Maybe, just maybe, Joe isn’t very good at handling a young pitching staff, or at least has been spending too much time in the batting cage and not enough time working with his young hurlers, and he is responsible for the Twins’ bad record in ways that go beyond his stats.
I don’t like it, but it’s just something to consider.
[...] 17, 2009 · Leave a Comment It’s getting to be my favorite time of year again. That’s right–it’s end-of-the-year awards debate [...]
“some people will not vote a player MVP if his team doesn’t make the playoffs”
These people should be disqualified from ever again voting a BBWAA ballot for anything, including best groundskeeper or hot dog vendor of the year.
Piazza was not slow until he got old after catching a lot of innings, something that would happen to any big catcher, and he used his speed smartly. I cite one game and I think it was from 1997. Dodger Stadium (back then with the huge foul areas, now much less a pitcher’s park). Game tied, 8th inning, Piazza was on second with two out. Wild pitch. Piazza ran hard and didn’t stop when the Cardinals’ catcher didn’t chase it hard, and scored from second base on a wild pitch. It would have been national headline news for baseball except Todd Worrell gave up two runs in the ninth to blow the save, 5-4. Oh yeah, in 1997 the Dodgers were in a tight pennant race, finishing two games out of first and four out of the wild card. The Rockies were five games further back.
Piazza, at least early in his career, was of average speed, and was usually a very smart baserunner who took whatever base was available to him. And as for the myth that Coors didn’t help Walker or Dodger Stadium didn’t hurt Piazza, for their careers: Walker Coors had an OPS of 1.172 (versus .965 for his career and .808 in Dodger Stadium). Piazza for his career in Dodger Stadium had an OPS of .924 and in Coors had an OPS of 1.115, versus career numbers of .922. Piazza batted .375 lifetime in Colorado versus .308 everywhere else; Walker was .381 versus .313. And Piazza might be listed as a weak defensive catcher, but somehow the Dodgers finished second in the league in ERA with him behind the plate. Colorado led the league in runs with 923; second place was 795. The Dodgers were 7th. Tell me again how Walker’s MVP was not because of Coors Field? Even if Walker was field agnostic that season, there were lots more Rockies on base for him to drive in at home than on the road, and RBI (in context of an offense that led the league by 128 runs because they played in the best hitters park in major league history) was why he got the MVP.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1999.shtml#ALmvp
look at that list…I-Rod won the MVP in ‘99 over the dudes behind him….and there are maybe 10-12 guys on that list who i’d pick over 2009 tex as the mvp. and mauer is having a season that makes i-rod’s look pedestrian.
if i-rod wins the MVP over guys having years that crack the conversation of “best ever at a position” (pitcher, 2b, ss, etc.) then GIMME A BREAK with the tex over mauer nonsense.
please don’t get me started on the “MVP comes from a winner” thing. i love the red sox to the point where i considered fenway as a middle name for a son (probably why fate conspired to give me two lovely girls instead)…and i’ll be the first in line to say that pedroia probably didn’t deserve the MVP last year.
my yankee-loving friends have returned to pre-2004 obnoxiousness…but this tex MVP thing is just stoopid. he might be third on his OWN TEAM. if we must have a yankees awards candidate, how about mariano the great for cy young? heck, i might give it to him over the stud starters right now, and at least it’s not an embarrassing conversation.
oops, i discussed the ‘99 AL MVP race without mentioning the word “steroids.” should probably be STEROIDS. all better.
I-Rod was also considered to be one of the best defensive catchers of all time when he won his MVP. His team also made the playoffs. Mauer is good, but I think I’d pick all three Molinas as better defensively than Mauer, and that’s off the top of my head. But when the two best batting years EVER at catcher were not good enough to win MVP for a playoff team and another team that was only two games out are not good enough to win an MVP, I’m worried that another best batting year ever for a team not even close to the playoffs (6.5 games out at the start of the day) won’t be enough.
Joe, I do believe that Jeter finished in 2nd place when Morneau won his MVP, with Jeter being considered because he was “consistent” and “deserved it.” (These quotes may be wrong; if so, sue me. I have nothing of value for you anyways). Morneau may not have deserved that MVP, but I sure as hell felt that Jeter didn’t deserve it either.
Teixeira better not win MVP this year. I’m sure the Yankees would have been just fine without him this season. Without Mauer, I bet the Twins would be in Royal Indian country right now.