What Joe’s Gotta Do
Posted: August 14th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 15 Comments »
You probably noticed that Joe Mauer has been smoking hot the last couple of weeks (.460 average his last 12 games) and his overall average is up to .370.
So the question: Is it still possible for him to hit .400?
Well … you know I LOVE Joe Mauer at this blog. So I’m going to tell you exactly what he’s got to do the rest of the way to get to .400.
The Twins have 48 games left. For the purposes of this exercise, we’re going to assume that Mauer will play in all 48 of those games either as a catcher or a DH. He might not, but we can make those adjustments later.
OK … so with 48 games, we can use his current number to project he will come up 211 more times. And with walks, hit-by-pitches, sacrifices and so on, we can project he will get 184 more at-bats.
Based on those projections, Mauer needs to hit .457 the rest of the way (84 for 184) to hit .400.
Possible? Hey, you know how I feel here. With Joe Mauer ANYTHING is possible.
Mauer to date
341 at-bats
126 hits
Batting average: .370 average.
What he’s got to do the rest of the way
184 at-bats
84 hits
Batting average: .457
Final numbers
525 at-bats
210 hits
Batting average: .400
Loading ...
Yeah, but the kid coulda been the quarterback at Florida State.
Clearly, he blew it.
As much as I love Mauer, i dont think he has much of a chance of hitting .400. however, he surely must win the race for the AL MVP. I mean, a catcher with those kind of numbers both offensively AND defensively. I havent looked at the exact numbers for this year but when Morneau won the award a couple years ago many were critical that he wasnt even the best player on his team, and Mauer has better offensive numbers across the board compared to that season. I think Mauer is truly one of the absolute players in the game, and dont forget, he hasnt yet entered the age where players really hit their peak. that comes next year.
In regards to Mauer, I don’t think anyone will ever hit .400 ever again unless there are rule changes that benefit the hitter. Too much specialization these days. I repeat, no .400 hitter ever again.
I was reading your previous article on bad free agent signings and am glad to hear that there are stats I’m not even aware of(!) that make the Alex Rios trade worthwhile. Hopefully another Kenny Williams gamble will pay off….although I am still leery of the trade forJake Peavy since he’ll be leaving PetCo Park.
Considering the source of the article, I’ll go ahead and say circle me Bert. Since he also has some time on his hands, circle me Mike Redmond.
Ted Williams, 1957 breask down like this…
April – June 2: 173 PA’s, he hit .407
June 3 – 19: 61 PA’s, .240
June 20 – Sep 29: 313 PA’s, .409
…just 61 PA’s of slump, kept Williams from hitting .400. Williams hit .400 over 486 PA’s, but that little 61 times killed his shot at .400 in 1957.
How ’bout Mauer’s 2009 up to this point?
May 1 – June 20: 202 PA’s, .407
June 21 – Jul 22: 107 PA’s, .253
Jul 23 – Aug 13: 86 PA’s, .410
…that 107 PA slump killed it. It’s almost twice as long as Williams, and even the Williams slump killed his chances.
Remember that Minnesota drafted him because they couldn’t afford Mark Prior.
Clearly, the Twins blew it.
It may be sacrilegious, but around my house he’s known as Joltin’ Joe.
I don’t care about .400. Pretty much impossible. A 3rd battle title should be the prize we’re paying attention too.
Keep the Mauer posts coming!
christian louboutin shoes
christian louboutin
3-3 tonight is a fine start. Back up to .375.
I’ve always liked the Joe Mauer & Justin Morneau combination. The Twins are the only team I have ever really liked in the AL Central (besides my Royals).
I agree with Sam (#2) that Joe Mauer should definitely win the AL MVP, or at least come very close to it.
Joe DiMaggio during his 56 game hitting streak barely broke .400 (I think it was .408, but I could be off a pip or two.) Basically, you have to hit as well as the first Joltin’ Joe did during his streak, only all season, while taking the pounding behind the plate.
He’s a pretty big underdog to do that, but the fact that it is even a possibility in mid-August is mind-blowing in itself.
Look at it this way. Mauer is currently batting .370. Assuming he maintains that average, that is 68 hits in the 184 ABs Joe projected. So basically the difference between maintaining and moving up to .400 is 16 hits over the course of 48 games. So he needs to maintain his current pace and throw in an extra hit every third game. Doesn’t sound horrible. If you give Mauer 100 opportunities like this, I bet he completes it about 10% of the time. He just needs a few extra hits to fall in. It’s going to be mostly luck if it happens.
There’s actually a statistical test called the chi-square test for finding out the probability that the actual value of something deviates from the expected value by a certain amount.
Before today’s game, I projected Mauer to have 177 more at bats, and he’d need to have 80 hits in those 177 to hit .400. The chances of him doing it are highly dependent on his “expected” batting average.
If you submit that it’s his career .325, the chances are about 1 in 330.
If you think it’s more like the .334 he’s hit from 2006 onward, it’s around 1 in 160.
If you think it’s the .346 he’s hit in 2006, 2008, and 2009 (assuming he was injured, so 2007 should be removed; this is obviously a rosy projection), it’s about 1 in 60.
If you think he’s actually a natural .379 hitter, like he’s hitting right now (super unrealistic), the chances are still only about 1 in 9.
Click on the link on my username, or go to http://battleyourtailoff.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=16784 to see a full blog post about this.
Joe Mauer is leading the league in OPS+ by a wide margin, while catching. And yes, you could make an argument that he deserves to win the MVP for that. But in 1997 (and 1995) Mike Piazza led the NL in OPS+. He also had more at bats than Mauer will, broke the franchise record for homers, in 1995 the Dodgers won their division, in 1997 they finished two games out of first, while the Twins are below .500 in a weak division and 5.5 games out of first right now. Piazza was also far and away the best hitter on the Dodgers, whereas three of the top four OPS hitters this season are Twins. Piazza never got his MVP, and I suspect that if today’s standings hold up, Youkilis will get the MVP because of east coast media bias. MLB still owes Piazza at least one and possibly two MVP awards. Colorado and Caminiti robbed Piazza.
Why in the world does this guy catch. That is like spending $1,000,000 at Barrett Jackson on a one of a kind car and using it for your every day driver. Let him DH or get someting huge for Morneau and move him to first.
@14 stimy78 – I couldn’t possibly disagree more. The fact that he’s doing this at a position that is much hard and defense oriented is precisely the reason that he is such a strong MVP candidate. At first base and DH he is still great but he gets lost among a sea of other great hitters. He is the best hitting catcher in the league, and it isn’t even close.
So, the plan would be to go from a lineup that includes Mauer AND Morneau to a lineup featuring just Mauer and some dude who can’t hit or catch as good as the guy that was already there. Not good times.