Comments on: Yuni Watch 7/31

By: Mark Daniel

Mark Daniel — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 18:29:46 +0000

barseball said: “Except you’re just proving Joe’s point further– What you are describing is LOOKING AT STATISTICS (monthly splits) and not OBSERVING THEM HIT. Appart from the ‘hottest hot and coldest cold streaks’ thing, which is nonsense.”

You clearly don’t understand what I’m saying. Looking at .300 vs. .275 over the course of a year, the only difference is about 1 hit every 10 games. Looking at these numbers, you exclaim, “That’s impossible to see! You need an electron microscope to see that difference!”
But a fan doesn’t watch 162 games all in one day. They watch games one by one. Month by month. So when Morneau hits .360 one month and .336 another month, that is two months of hitting that are better than Iwamura’s best month of .333. Also, Morneau’s worst month at .243 is better than Iwamura’s two months at .242 and .220. I know, I know, I’m using those dang numbers again, but I’m just saying people watching the games with their eyes can see the differences at times like this.

By: barseball

barseball — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 22:12:04 +0000

@Mark Daniel: “Morneau’s monthly splits show averages of .277, .336, .315, .360, .282, .243 from April to Sep. Iwamura’s batted .220, .333, .274, .268, .302, and .242 by month. They both had good months and bad months. But Morneau’s good months were better, and he had more of them. Iwamura’s bad months were worse than Morneau’s. This is how it is actually possible to observe the difference between a .300 hitter and a .275 hitter.”

Except you’re just proving Joe’s point further– What you are describing is LOOKING AT STATISTICS (monthly splits) and not OBSERVING THEM HIT. Appart from the ‘hottest hot and coldest cold streaks’ thing, which is nonsense.

By: Mark Daniel

Mark Daniel — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 13:58:44 +0000

I think there’s a pretty big difference between a .275 hitter and a .300 hitter. James’ assessment suggests that players get 3 hits (or 2.75 hits) per 10 at bats week after week after week. Thus, no hot streaks, no cold streaks, etc. If this were the case, then yes, it would be difficult to tell the difference between a .300 hitter and a .275 hitter. But a .300 hitter will have hotter hot streaks, and a .275 hitter will have colder cold streaks. As an example, Justin Morneau hit .300 in 2008, Akinori Iwamura hit .274. They both had similar numbers of at bats. Morneau hat 187 hits, Iwamura 172. Morneau’s monthly splits show averages of .277, .336, .315, .360, .282, .243 from April to Sep. Iwamura’s batted .220, .333, .274, .268, .302, and .242 by month. They both had good months and bad months. But Morneau’s good months were better, and he had more of them. Iwamura’s bad months were worse than Morneau’s. This is how it is actually possible to observe the difference between a .300 hitter and a .275 hitter.

By: MarkBowmansBlogReader

MarkBowmansBlogReader — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 04:04:47 +0000

Yeah, PWH we all wish you were talented enough to create original thought. Does Joe know you are reprinting his work on other blogs I wonder?

By: PWHjort

PWHjort — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 16:36:28 +0000

Every time I read something like this I say to myself, “This is my position on the issue and I only wish I were talented enough to express it the way you just did”.

By: JeffSol

JeffSol — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 15:48:24 +0000

Dewan plus/minus data is available at billjamesonline.net, whcih is a reasonable $3/month subscription.

By: Richard Aronson

Richard Aronson — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 07:28:53 +0000

Put me down in agreement with those folks who feel some of the defensive ratings lack visibility. As far as I can tell, in order to get good info on Dewan’s numbers I have to buy Dewan’s book. As a famous sportswriter you get things sent to you for free, or can write off the expense of buying them. But as a poor schlub forced to live 600 miles away from my wife and house by this lousy job market (and have to pay upkeep on house as well as rental) I’m not buying any books until the library runs out.

And for what it’s worth, I spent some time earlier today trying to find the scale of Dewan’s +/- fielding ratings. I’m a fairly good googler. I failed miserably, perhaps because I don’t know enough to search effectively. If I can’t even find out that the all time best score is +84 (Ozzie, natch) and the all time worst score is -197 (me, just for infecting the stadium with my lack of range) then how can I get a detailed number or come up with an effective algorithm to combine +/- with OPS+?

By: Daniel

Daniel — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 20:51:09 +0000

Could anyone point to an online updated source for Dewan’s Plus/Minus rating? My Googling skills are failing me.

I know I can easily find UZR at FanGraphs and RZR at THT (which is, IMO, a little difficult to utilize since positional avg’s aren’t easily looked at without checking http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/fielding-stats-at-the-hardball-times/ ….though if I’m wrong on that, I’d love a correction), but I’m drawing a blank on finding updated plus/minus.

(“Dewan plus/minus he’s ALREADY minus-3 in Kansas City”)

By: Colin Wyers

Colin Wyers — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 07:19:31 +0000

You simply can’t calculate UZR at home, because STATS and BIS won’t share the sort of detailed data that is required to calculate it. But if you simply Google UZR, you should see the explanation MGL wrote a few years ago on Baseball Think Factory.

Short version – the field is sliced into zones, A-Z for STATS and even smaller zones for BIS. UZR caclulates the percentage of balls fielded in each zone by the average fielder, subtracts that from the percentage of balls in that zone fielded by each individual fielder and multiplies that by balls in zone and by the run value of a play in that zone. It then adds the values of all zones together. That’s UZR in a nutshell.

By: jwb

jwb — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 03:43:21 +0000

Have you ever read Jack London’s short story “To Build a Fire?” You should continue the Yuni Watch until his OPS+ gets to 50 below and then let it die.