Dusty Roads
Posted: July 30th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 53 Comments »
Part of me just has to admire the sheer chutzpah* of Dusty Baker. I’m not kidding. We all know that Dusty has over the years become the very essence of old-school baseball — and all that those words represent.
*What a great word — chutzpah.
We all know about Dusty’s famous, “Clogging up the bases isn’t that great to me,” statement when he was trying to make the point that he wasn’t too crazy about on-base percentage. We all know that in 2003 and 2004, he had the comically awful Neifi Perez, with his .281 on-base percentage, either lead off or hit second in the lineup 65 times. And he has made numerous odd and not entirely rational statements through the years.
Still, it’s this latest bit of Dusty magic that has me nodding my head in admiration. Seven times this year — and twice in the last week — Dusty Baker has led off his lineup with center fielder Willy Taveras and followed him, in the No. 2 spot, with shortstop Alex Gonzalez.
There’s something awe inspiring about it. In case you are wondering what’s so special about this, well, Willy Taveras has a .279 on-base percentage this year. In case you are wondering, that’s the second worst on-base percentage in baseball (350 or more plate appearances), the worst being the always enjoyable Bengie Molina. Dusty is leading off with a player who makes outs 72 percent of the time he comes to the plate. His OPS+ is 49.
And then … he moves right to Alex Gonzalez who, almost unbelievably, is much worse. Gonzalez’s on-base percentage is .250 and that’s really not out-of-line with his career numbers (.293 lifetime on-base percentage, and he had a .229 on-base percentage in 2003 with the Marlins). He has no power, no speed and he has walked 11 times all year. It’s not too good. His OPS+ is 39.
Now, you really don’t want to have two players that weak offensively in the lineup at the same time. Maybe in an emergency situation. A day game after a night game. A second-game of a doubleheader. OK, look, I have followed bad baseball teams pretty much all my life, and I know that sometimes you just get caught in a situation where you have to play struggling players.
But to lead those two players off … well, that takes something more. And, hey, you can’t say it doesn’t work. Just on Monday the Taveras-Gonzalez duo scored two runs in the first inning in a Reds 6-4 victory. How did it happen? Taveras reached on an error. Gonzalez reached on a weak ground ball to third. And Brandon Phillips homered. Something you can count on.
There are many ways to manage a baseball game. And sometimes the illogical works. Sometimes the most strategic move fails. Sometimes a lineup pulled from a hat scores 10 runs and sometimes a lineup figured with mathematical precision gets shut out. Sometimes a manager wins even though his players hate him, and sometimes a manager loses even though his players love him, and sometimes it’s exactly the other way around.
And part of me just is in awe of the fact that Dusty Baker is still Dusty Baker, even after all these years, even after all the mockery, even after all the oh-so-obvious flaws. The world may change, but Dusty endures — he’s still just an ex-Marine looking hard into the eye of the storm and saying, “I don’t care. I am who I am. And I am invincible.”
* * *
I know the last thing you want is more Royals but … I missed this in my last Yuni Watch. Brilliant reader Tony points out that on Wednesday the Royals — for the first time in their history — played an entire game without registering a single defensive assist. Not one. Of the 24 outs, nine were by strikeout, six flyouts to the outfield, four pop-ups in the infield (one a bunt), two foul pop-ups in the infield, one lineout in the infield and two ground balls to first base.
I have no idea what this means … probably nothing. But I love stuff like that.
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I circled Dusty?
I just imagine putting that lineup in a computer simulator and watching the machine start smoking before it explodes – sorta like the finale of War Games*…
(*”The only way to win is not to play…”)
AMMMMEEERIIICAAAAAAAN
DREEEEEAAAAAAAM
he’s just a common man
workin’ hard with his hands
As a Cardinal fan, please please please please Dusty, stay in the NL Central FOREVER!!!
Do you suppose he is confusing this Alex Gonzalez with the one he had at shortstop with the Cubs? Not that he should have been batting second, but at least he could hit a little.
I need to be educated on a few things, and this is probably the best site for what I need.
I’ve always known about batting avg, rbis, and hrs. I know what is good and what is bad when using these numbers. 100 rbis is good 70+ is above avg, 50+ is decent, less than 50 is bad. 300 is a good batting avg, 330+ is league leading, 270+ is above avg, etc. but I don’t know much about obp, ops, ops+. What is the equivelent of a 300 batting avg for these categories? and how are they calculated? I need some sort of benchmark if i’m going to understand why Yunesky is so bad, and why Dusty Baker is such a clown. saying he is a clown is fine, and saying that so and so has a low ops is fine, but if you said “this guy is batting .231, with 12 RBI and 1 hr, then I would know he sucked. Give me a line like 295/311/271, and I have
A. no idea what I’m looking at, and
B. no idea if it is good or not.
help out a brother. If you choose to nitpick about whether 50+ RBIis decent, you are a jerk. if you choose to discuss why RBIs/batting avg/hrs are stupid, you are also a jerk. I just need to know what ops+,ops,obp mean, and any other such contraptions. I suppose it wouldnt hurt to learn what ERA + is too. for example, less than a 3.00 ERA is pretty good, but what is the equivelent in era+?
thanks
Rainier: The “slash stats” (i.e. .297/.352/.399) are Batting Average/On-Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage. NL Average this year is .267/.330/.407, but that includes pitchers. AL average is .264/.334/.426.
For OPS+, league average is 100. 105 means that it’s 5% better than league average (adjusted for home ballpark). 92 means 8% worse than league average.
So, OPS+ of 39 and 49 are horrific. As is a leadoff batter with a sub.330 OBP.
Hope I helped.
#6
i won’t answer that because there are surely people who can answer that better, but i enjoyed not only the thoroughness of that request but also your calling people jerks because its funny how uninformed (as you admit) you are, but also how you can still see the pretentiously annoying comments that surely will come
Rainier — ERA+ and OPS+ are numbers relative to the league average (in ERA and OPS, obviously). Both statistics are normalized to have 100 as the average score. So Albert Pujols has an OPS+ of 194, meaning at this moment, he is 94% better than league average. Taveras and Gonzalez, on the other end of the spectrum, are 51% and 61% worse than the average. ERA+ works the same way — Zack Greinke’s ERA is 107% lower than the AL average, so he has a 207 ERA+.
A reference point for bad, good, avg and great in OBP and OPS (OBP + SLG):
Bad: Bengie Molina (.273 OBP), Willy Taveras (.569 OPS)
Average: Jason Giambi (.332 OBP), Jacoby Ellsbury (.753 OPS)
Good: Carl Crawford (.373 OBP), Chipper Jones (.884 OPS)
Great: Pujols (.443 OBP; from 2001-2004 Bonds’ OBP was .559 — think about that for a second), Pujols (1.123 OPS)
Rainier/6 – Others have explained some of what you’ve asked, but not all.
OBP is actually pretty simple to calculate and can be done with just “normal” stats.
OBP = (H + BB + HBP) / (AB + BB + HBP + SF). That’s it. You only need 5 different numbers to calculate it. And I’m not going to say you or batting average is stupid, but a short-answer reason why OBP > AVG is that OBP includes AVG AND more information that helps you figure out the quality of a player’s offensive performance. Average tells you how often a player gets on base via a base hit. OBP tells you how often he gets on base via a base hit and a walk and a hit by pitch.
SLG = Slugging percentage. This is a way to measure overall power, and gives you more information than just home runs. Slugging is also really easy to calculate.
SLG = TB/AB. If you don’t know, TB stands for Total Bases. A “base” is given for a hit, with the number of bases being the number reached on the hit (so a single is 1, a double is 2, etc.). A longer formula would be ((1B) + (2 x 2B) + (3 x 3B) + (4 x HR))/AB. The good part about the internet is you don’t actually have to do the math yourself with a site like baseballreference.com, but that’s how it’s calculated.
When you combine OBP and SLG by simply adding them together, you get OPS. OPS is a very rough stat that combines ability to get on base and ability to hit for power. The truth is, OPS isn’t all that great. There’s better, more comprehensive stats out there. The reason a lot of people who are into advanced statistics do not like OPS is because it weights on base ability and power equally. In fact, getting on base is nearly twice as important as hitting for power.
I hope this was helpful. And I apologize if at any point I was “dumbing it down,” but one thing I hate is when people who understand this stuff act as if you don’t get it you’re stupid. The way I see it, when I have a person willing to learn these things, make sure they get it. Hopefully I presented all of this clearly.
Rainer–there’s this thing called Wikipedia. You can reach it on your computer. I know you have one of those because you posted here! There’s an article on every single stat you asked about. How bout helping a brother out and doing a little work for yourself?
Well, a wikipedia entry isn’t what he is looking for. It can give him all the information but out of context, even if he understands the concept, he doesn’t want to pore through reams of data to find out what’s good, what’s acceptable, what’s atrocious.
We know a .300 average is good because sportscasters beat it into us, we didn’t read an article about dividing hits by at bats.
So just stick with OBP for now. Here’s an oversimplified way of putting it:
.400 OBP = .300 BA. This is what you want to have from a superstar.
.300 OBP = .200 BA – the Mendoza line. If you’re near it, you better have some killer secondary skills to even merit remaining a major leaguer, if you’re below it, you shouldn’t be near the plate.
.340 OBP = .265 BA. Basically what you think of as an average player.
So when the Royals acquired Mike Jacobs via trade (with a .299 OBP last year and a career mark of .314) we felt the way you would if a team was excited about getting a hitter who had a .199 BA and played terrible defense.
Hope this helps.
I’d be curious to have someone research that unassisted outs thing. That’s just really odd that not one ground out to anyone in an infield position other than 1B did not occur all game. It seems very odd indeed.
Fun fact: Molina, with his .273 OBP, .696 OPS, and 80 OPS+, has not batted anywhere besides cleanup in games he has started since Bonds left the team (216 games and counting).
Being a Giants fan, sometimes I wish I didn’t know the advanced metrics and Sabermetrics stuff about baseball, because it can really be frustrating following a team whose front office thinks that thinks batting average and All-Star appearances are the best way to measure a player. Ignorance can be bliss.
Let me go on record right now. I’m calling it. Dayton Moore will replace Trey Hillman, with Dusty Baker. That is, if Moore lasts, and if Baker gets canned from Cincy. After all, they seem to put OBP in the same spot in their baseball player priorities. They’re a perfect match. Admit it. And Dayton Moore can even talk all he wants about how he went out and got a manager who took a team to the World Series and how this will help the Royals get back to the playoffs. It’ll be perfect for helping him to save his job, instead of save the Royals.
All of Dusty’s (crappy) leadoff men through his coaching career are summed up on Redleg Nation. http://redlegnation.com/2009/07/30/does-this-mean-anything/
I first touched on this way back in May 2008 when Dusty kept insisting on leading off with Corey Patterson. Then when they signed Taveras in the offseason, I just knew we were going to suffer all over again 2009 here in Reds Nation.
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=68007
@ Rainier,
I didn’t see anyone explain ERA+, so here goes. ERA+ is simply ERA normalized against league average. So you take league average ERA, multiply it by 100, then divide it by the player’s ERA. So a score of 100 means you’re league average. The higher the score, the better you are.
Since this is based off league average, ERA+ for any specific ERA changes from year to year (and even between the leagues). For instance, if league average is 4.3, a 3.00 ERA would give you an ERA+ of 143. If league average is 4.6, a 3.00 ERA would give you an ERA+ of 153. The good thing about ERA+ is that it allows you to compare a pitcher to his peers. The downside is that it’s based on ERA, which is affected by many things outside the pitcher’s control – defense, park factor, etc. But that’s a whole other can of worms.
@CKDexterHaven,
Arrogant responses like yours are part of why many people dislike “statheads.” In the same amount of time it took you to basically call Rainier lazy and/or stupid, you could have just answered one of his questions.
“The downside is that it’s based on ERA, which is affected by many things outside the pitcher’s control – defense, park factor, etc. But that’s a whole other can of worms.”
Minor correction: ERA+ is adjusted for the park effects. A 3.00 ERA in Petco is less valuable than a 3.00 in Coors, but a 115 ERA+ is the same in both.
@ dlf,
Good point. I was using my normal “problems with ERA” speech without thinking about the larger context of ERA+. Thanks for pointing that out.
[...] * Joe Posnanski notices the top of the Reds lineup isn’t very good. [...]
The 1961 Yankees are a famously good team. They won 109 games, Mantle and Maris took a run at Babe’s HR record. Their 3rd string catcher hit 21 HRs. They hit 240 HRS that year.
And yet, with all that greatness, their regular leadoff hitter was Bobby Richardson, .261/.295/.316. Their regular 2nd place hitter was Tony Kubek, .276/.306/.395.
Sure it would have been weird to have their starting catcher of the day hit 1st or 2nd (Howard had a .387 OBP, Blanchard a .382 OBP), but just think how many more runs they could have scored had Mickey and Roger actually came up with runners on base in front of them.
Joe, thanks for publicizing this.
My hope is that the Reds lose out so that we can trade Dusty to Baseball Tonight for a new microphone for the PA announcer or maybe a camera.
I’m 99% sure that this is the last job that Dusty will have managing a baseball team, and baseball is all the better for not having him managing.
Brent, I have always thought that one of the more remarkable stats that year was that Bobby Richardson, hitting in front of Mantle and Maris scored just 80 runs that year. As you say, imagine if someone with a decent or good OBP had led off in 1961.
I think it important to note that there is no one perfect stat, and as pointed out in a number of comments, there are combinations of factors that might make a low OBP or slugging % more tolerable. But I think it is true that avoiding outs is as critical a skill as any around.
I think it also worthwhile to mention that the standards for what is good or bad are not the same for all positions. A good defensive shortstop or catcher with an OPS+ of 98 might be considered quite good or at least adequate while a first baseman would not be.
There’s a reason why Willy Taveras is on my HACKING MASS team at baseball prospectus (and is among the most “popular” players there.) He stinks AND everyone knows that he’ll play.
I’m going to be fair to Dusty for one second: NO ONE outside of Votto, Encarnation (who has a .209 BA to balance it) and Hanigan (who’s been out the past few days) can work a count among Red regulars.
That being said, Gomes should be getting more PA’s, and it’s not like Dusty wouldn’t bat Tavares and Gonzalez 1-2 anyway, he loves the speed / bat control combo (and the CF-SS combo). Amazingly this team is outperforming their pythag W-L by 3 games.
I was listening into a Red broadcast earlier in the year when this was also the case and the Reds analyst credited it to “good managing”. I almost fell off my chair laughing.
I just thought of something awesome.
Dusty Baker one day taking the day off and whoever’s filling in bats Hanigan leadoff.
.397 career OBP catcher with 0 steals? Dusty would have a stroke.
My biggest issue with OPS+ is that it is not adjusted for position also. So, while 100 is league average, that includes pitchers that hit, catchers, and othrs that have no real hitting talent. Then, when you look at a corner OF and say his OPS+ is 100, you think “he’s league average, that’s not bad”…..so, remember OPS+ is not position adjusted.
As for not having two players that bad in your lineup? Your favorite manager, ron gardenhire does it all the time. He INSISTS on hitting Tolbert, Punto, Casilla second. He actually lamented that he had to hit Mauer second, because that’s just not the right way to build a lineup….seriously, he’s just not that good a manager.
@Rainier (#6): Kudos for asking, man. Too many people, in my opinion, are afraid to admit they don’t know something. There’s no shame in not knowing something.
@RampantRedsFan (#23): We both know that Dusty Baker will get another job if he wants one. With any luck, maybe the Mutts will hire him, so Philly fans can mock New York for years to come.
That’s why you should use VORP to compare players offensively relative to their position. It’s far from perfect, but it works well enough for that purpose.
And of course, when building a lineup, you wouldn’t bat a SS cleanup because he has a higher VORP than the 1B.
Ever since Moneyball, the game has been leaving the Dusty Baker’s behind, the ones that insist on a speedy leadoff hitter where OBP is a good bonus (instead of the other way around), giving a good bunter the #2 hole instead of a good hitter, keeping Hatteberg/Hanigan types buried in the 8 hole, leaving starters in too long. If he didn’t get to manage Barry Bonds, no one would ever hire this guy.
John @ 29.
They already have Dusty Baker V2.0.
Okay he’s not quite as bad, but still, he makes one of the few guys remaining who’s good at not getting out (castillo) bunt a lot. SWEET.
C’mon, Dusty’s got this all figured out. Get Taveras and Gonzalez up and out of the way so the remainder of his order can swat the balls around. And, he’s true to his word about not liking cloggin’ the basepaths. With these two guys in the lineup and at the top of the order, Dusty certainly has a handle on keeping the basepaths nearly empty. The Dustpan is IN CHARGE, there’s no denying that!
Rainer IS Dayton Moore.
@ Joe R (#31): Yeah, it’s great to watch the New York Mess struggle, but you know that eventually Jerry is going to get fired and they’ll need a replacement. We can only hope Dusty is available when the time comes.
I just ran the Lineup Analysis from Baseball Musings on the Yankees 1961 lineup. Using their most common lineup they should have scored 801 runs. Using the best possible lineup they would have scored 831 runs. In the best possible lineup Richardson and Kubek bat 7 and 8 (pitcher’s spot ninth). But I guess you can’t complain about a WS Champ.
It’s just fun to rip on Dusty Baker:
http://firecolincowherd.blogspot.com/2009/05/joe-morgans-starting-right-fielder.html
http://firecolincowherd.blogspot.com/search/label/Darnell%20McDonald
I remember Bill James talking about the ‘61 Yankees in one of the Abtracts, probably 1984. He noted how the O’s won the WS in ‘83 after Weaver retired, the Yanks one in ‘61 after Stengel retired, and the Giants won in ‘33 after McGraw retired.
Anyhow, Stengel in ‘60 had Kubek leadoff 78 times (361 PA) and Richardson 28 (121 PA) (1st and 2nd most common on the team). Their numbers while leading off .251/.287/.381 and .156/.190/.202 were not good. To put it mildly.
I wonder if the epic loss to the Pirates in the WS had anything to do with the Yankees not having a good 1st hitter (.234/.272/.354 compared to overall team numbers of .260/.329/.426)?
I believe 2 of the top 6 single season out makers of all time played for the Yankees.
Random fact.
I’ll post what I posted on a similar thing on redlegnation.com:
You know, this kind of confirms what I’ve been thinking: Dusty is an idiot, but I think a “bigger” problem is that he has this idea of how a baseball team should work and he basically tries to conform (or outright force) the team he actually he has into this “perfect”, ideal baseball team. He visualizes Plato’s form of how a baseball team mechanically operates, and gosh darnit, that’s how his team is going to be operated, even if the result is atrocious. In his mind, the ideal baseball team has a speedy CF batting leadoff. A speedy, “crafty” middle infielder batting second. The catcher bats 8th. The starters work themselves out of jams. The hit and run works. Etc, etc.
Basically, I think Dusty believes that if you keep forcing your team into the ideal team, then eventually, your team will magically transform into the ideal baseball team.
@ Joe R (#36): Thank you for posting those links! I hadn’t seen that blog before, and now I believe I have something to do this afternoon other than actually getting my work done here at the office.
I’m bored at work too so I used Joe’s blog to whore my blog.
/high fives self
mrh, I don’t think the Series loss can be pinned on the leadoff hitters. In the 4 losses, the Yankees used Richardson to lead off just once and he went 2-5. Overall in the series, mostly batting 8th I think, he had a .387 OBP. Kubek hit first or second in 3 of the 4 losses and went 3/5, 1/4, and 0/3 with a BB. Cerv, Lopez and Maris each went 1/4 in one of the first 2 spots; Only McDougald failed to get a hit in that spot (0/4), and he was ordinarily one of the better NY on base players. Dale Long pinch hit in the last game for #2 hitter Kubek and got a hit.
Overall, Kubek’s OBP in the Series was .394, Cerv’s was .357 and Lopez’s was .429.
@somebody #8 — Your prediction of “pretentiously annoying comments” was certainly spot on. And it only took another 3 comments to prove your point.
@CKDexterHaven #11 — Yes, that’s your comment I am referring to. You are an embarassment to your namesake (seriously, do you think he would speak like that to anyone?).
@Brent #22 — As someone old enough to have seen that team in person (I was 10 — AND I saw Roger hit #61 in person), it never ceased to amaze me that Richardson and Kubek were the first two hitters in that lineup. It just didn’t seem right.
It got even worse when I started playing APBA and Strat-O-Matic. Why are these guys with all those “out” results leading off?
Then along came sabrmetrics, OBP, etc. — and now I wonder if Ralph Houk was as drunk as Mickey supposedly was all the time.
@Mike in MN #28 — Do you know of ANY offensive stat, traditional or sabrmetric, that is routinely adjusted for position?
@Mark @ #32 — Isn’t that the theory behind Tony “I’m too smart for anyone to understand my genius” LaRussa’s idiocy about having the pitcher bat 8th instead of 9th? The obvious, logical conclusion to that strategy is that, as you indicated, all the worst batters should go first so the others don’t have to worry about them.
@Joe R #32 — Actually, it’s two of the top 4 if you want to be picky (Richardson 1964 is tied with two others; Horace Clarke 1970 was the other Yankee).
Aside from (or, in additon to) the marvelous writing we always get from Joe, this is my favorite blog ever because of the wit and erudition (and lack of stupidity and obscenity) of the commenters.
Great job, everyone!
Beautifully done.
“Brilliant reader Tony points out that on Wednesday the Royals — for the first time in their history — played an entire game without registering a single defensive assist. Not one. Of the 24 outs, nine were by strikeout, six flyouts to the outfield, four pop-ups in the infield (one a bunt), two foul pop-ups in the infield, one lineout in the infield and two ground balls to first base.”
Not having seen the boxscore, I was waiting for the punchline reading the above:
“Yet, six infield hits were surrendered.”
“For the first time this season, the Royals infield had a perfect game.”
“Moore points out positive effect Benancourt is already having on Royals’ defense.”
Or something like that…
thanks everyone
very helpful
Joe R./26
The problem with being fair to Dusty is that, largely, the team consists of HIS GUYS. Look at all the guys on the Reds in the past two years who have played for Dusty in the past. The Pattersons and Hairstons of the world abound in the Queen City, and it’s because of Dusty.
JD @ 47
Leads me to believe that Dusty Baker does have a lot of front office pull. Bet he was the one behind that…umm…questionable, Rolen deal.
At least Willy Taveras isn’t a pitcher, so he doesn’t have to watch as Dusty leaves him in for 135 pitches and sends him on his way to Tommy John surgery.
Funny story. I went to a Giants-Rockies game at Coors Field and got there early to watch BP (mostly for Bonds). So Neifi Perez gets up there, probably thinking “Hey, it’s Coors Field, I can hit some homers.” He tried probably 20 times from each side of the plate to get one to go out and couldn’t do it. Some of the other Giants laughed at him.
Imagine Neifi without the PEDs. Somehow he hit 64 HR in his career…of course 43 of those came in his 668 games as a Rockie.
Hey, that’s nothing: in 921 career PAs in Coors Field — and before the humidor — Juan Pierre hit one (yes, that’s 1) HR.
Compared to that, Neifi is Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds combined.
Meh, Pierre had a .356 OBP in Colorado. So he wasn’t a total debacle.