Lukkkkkkkkkkkkke
Posted: July 26th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 37 Comments »
Numerous people write in to ask about Luke Hochevar’s 13 strikeout, 0 walk game on Saturday. I had mentioned Bill James’ theory — one I agree with — that if a pitcher has a 15 strikeout, 0 walk game, that’s a pretty good indication that he is or will be a very good pitcher. It’s just too hard to do. A pitcher might luck into a no-hitter. A pitcher might even luck into a perfect game. But 15 strikeouts, 0 walks — well, I pointed out that 21 pitchers have done it and 20 of them were either Hall of Fame quality or excellent pitchers (and the 21st, the anomaly, Sterling HItchcock, did pitch in the big leagues for 13 years).
So what about 13 strikeouts and 0 walks? Well, that’s a significantly bigger group. Since 1954, 75 different pitchers have done it. That’s a list that includes Jason Bere and Greg Maddux, Jim Merritt and Bob Gibson, Turk Farrell, Gary Peters, Bobby Bolin, Joe Cowley and Terry Mulholland, but also Don Drysdale, Jim Bunning, Ron Guidry, Bert Blyleven and Tom Seaver.
In other words, it’s certainly an encouraging sign … but might not be quite as predictive as 15 strikeouts, 0 walks. What makes Hochevar interesting is that, you might remember, early this year he shut down the Cincinnati Reds on only 80 pitches. So that means in one season — only his second season — he’s already had two fairly unusual and remarkable games. I don’t know that is a GUARANTEE of future success, but I have to think that in a depressing season for Kansas City, this is extremely promising. There were people all over baseball who thought the Royals made a mistake taking Hochevar No. 1 overall in the 2006 draft — and with Evan Longoria, Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum following shortly after it’s hard to argue at the moment — and I suspect that even within the Royals organization, expectations for Hochevar had dwindled.
Now, though, he has shown the clear potential for stardom. And if that could happen — if they could match up an ascending Luke Hochevar with Zack Greinke, add in a healthy Gil Meche and the very solid Brian Bannister, there has to be hope that as bad as this year may look, things could turn fairly quickly with some strategic moves and some help from the minors.
Hope. You have to find it where you can.
* * *
OK so, I probably need to just stomp my foot and say that I’ve probably taken enough of a beating on my Top 100. I have to feel like I have been as honest in my appraisal of my own list — it’s probably a bit too subjective, probably puts too much stock in this year’s achievements and so on. But, hey, I have pages and pages of reasons for every person on the list. And I’m just going to say this bluntly: Many of the complaints I’ve heard are annoying and knee-jerk and not based in any reality I know.
Probably I’ve heard more complaints about Cole Hamels being left off than any other — you know what? Cole Hamels is 6-5 with a 4.66 ERA this season and righties are hitting .308 and slugging .508 against him. Hey, I love Hamels, and I was blown away like everyone else by how he pitched in the postseason last year. I think he will rebound and again be terrific. But look: He just ain’t pitching very well.
People are furious that I left Adam Jones off. Hey, I like Jones a lot — what’s not to like about a 23-year-old centerfielder coming into his own. But a 116 OPS+ for half a season, while nice, just didn’t quite get him up there. And if you want to talk potential, is Adam Jones going to be a better player than B.J. Upton? Questionable.
Nick Markakis could have been up there, but there are a lot of good corner outfielders out there.
Here’s what brilliant reader Lance writes in the comments:
So, you need to win this year… and you choose Adam Wainwright nearly 40 slots ahead of Roy Oswalt? Really?
About half your choices are virtually indefensible, either by virtue of how high you’ve slotted them, or that you’ve selected them at all. Did Steve Phillips ghostwrite this thing for you?
This would be a good example of the responses I’m getting … one of our own brilliant readers calling the list virtually indefensible because I put Adam Wainwright ahead of Roy Oswalt.
Wainright: Age 27 going into 28.
Oswalt: Age 31 going into 32.
Wainwright since beginning of 2008 season: 22-9, 3.07 ERA, 137 ERA+, 221 Ks, 86 walks.
Oswalt since beginning of 2008 season: 23-14, 3.58 ERA, 118 ERA+, 269 Ks, 80 walks.
Wainwright this season: 11-6, 2.95 ERA, 141 ERA+, 130 Ks, 52 walks.
Oswalt this season: 6-4, 3.66 ERA, 114 ERA+, 103 Ks, 33 walks, 2.2 WAR.
Wainwright: Clearly ascending.
Oswalt: Has had a few injuries and inconsistencies last year and a half.
This is not to knock Oswalt … he’s pitching really well lately and he has the great track record and, as mentioned, I do regret not getting Oswalt on the list. But hey, I did put many hours into this list. I did give input to a lot of very, very smart people. I’m more than willing to take the beatdowns on this list because these things are just meant to inspire beatdowns. But indefensible? Come on. It’s like an old editor once told me — don’t use the word “arguably” in a story. Because, really, EVERYTHING is arguable.
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First, first, first…
what about McCann?
I thought your list was pretty good but I did want to mention two things – first, do you know who’s 3rd in the AL in OPS+? Granted, he can’t hit lefties AT ALL but he kills righties. And Morneau should’ve been higher. And, I think I’m first, so circle me Bert.
Calmer than you are.
I find it hard to believe that Jason Bere didn’t walk a batter in one of his starts.
Based on the list in Joe’s second paragraph, Hochevar may have a no-hitter in him as well. Although Maddux, amazingly, never had one.
This is arguably the best argument that ever was argued!
I did it!!!
It’s happening! It’s really happening!
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4357116
The era of TPJ: Relief Ace has officially begun. Believe it!
#3 Hilarious.
It really is bizarre how passionate people feel about a subjective list, especially one with so many warnings about how subjective it was. I treat a list of this sort much like i treat a person speaking spanish in the same room as me, i pretty much ignore everything and just look out for my name, or umm, in this case Phillies players’s names.
Wow. Was that title a Deliverance reference?
Got to the K finally and experienced Hoch’s performance, not to mention Soria for 6 outs.
I would like some thoughts on my comments to follow as maybe I am missing something or misinterpreting, but here goes.
1. Hillman’s comments after the game that (paraphrasing here) Luke and Soria were good, but our execution was what won the game? Then he went on to praise the back to back doubles as an example? Huh? How does a 2 run homer, back to back doubles (twice), and oh by the way, 16 strikeouts, equal execution? That looks like just a series of random events that happen that totalled equal a 6-3 ballgame. I mean we even had more bad baserunning (should have had a runner thrown out at second if Kinsler catches the ball from Byrd). Instead Teahan scores on Bucks single. I guess execution is actually stringing some hits together, playing (poor) defense, and having your 2 pitchers tie a club record for strikeouts? I now understand the Royal’s leadership and the strategy they have laid out.
2. I know there are tons of comments on the lack of defense at second, short, and center. But Olivo plus Buck as our catchers looks terrible. Olivo can’t catch a ball (the wild pitches last night just looked like Olivo with one of his slaps at a ball in the dirt instead of moving his feet and blocking the ball). It seems like every 3rd pitch with a runner on base ends up on the ground after hitting the catchers mitt in some fashion. Buck can’t throw to second with out three hops. And the two of them equal 500 at bats, 75 hits, 40 walks, 75 runs, 18 homers, and 35 RBI. I mean, wouldn’t it be better to go get a good defensive catcher to help all the starting pitching ? Throw some runners out on the bases, call a good ball game and work the pitch count a little?
3. Tony Pena is the solution to our 8th inning relief pitching issues and the Royals just announced the same. We can move Soria to the starting rotation tommorow as our relief issues are now fixed…
4. I know the Royals have glacier like team speed, this is after adding Freel to the team. But is the grass at the K intentionally left long to slow down the other team? There were some balls hit hard on the ground that died as soon it hit the grass. I guess with good pitching you want tall grass and big foul areas. But the way our offense has been, why not shorten the grass and see if you can pick up a few more runs here and there?
The first thing that popped into my head upon seeing the headline was, “There is no way to create this list without pissing off a cross-section of (mostly ignorant) readers. Of course, Joe knows this*. He had to have lost a bet with Jon Heyman.”
*And you admitted as much in the intro.
Would love to hear Joe’s thoughts on Peter Gammons’ story that MLB is threatening to take the 2012 All-Star game away from KC if they sign two of their top draft picks over slot.
[...] Joe Posnanski » Blog Archive » Lukkkkkkkkkkkkke By Joe Posnanski And if that could happen — if they could match up an ascending Luke Hochevar with Zack Greinke, add in a healthy Gil Meche and the very solid Brian Bannister, there has to be hope that as bad as this year may look, things could turn … Joe Posnanski – http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/ [...]
Is there a way, Joe, to check the list of 15 K, 0 BB pitchers and see how many pitched earlier than the mid-80s? It seems to me that strikeouts don’t carry the stigma they used to and that it ought to be easier to load up on Ks today the way guys swing for the fences.
Well, maybe Luke and co. will get a new rotation mate someday: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4357116
One step closer for our dream coming true!
#13
That kind of stat would be useful in, for example, determining who hit 40 home runs in a season because that record was watered down. Since Joe already indicated that 20 of the 21 are excellent pitchers, it hardly seems necessary, because historically it shows the stat hasn’t been watered down. The anomoly, as it were, was sterling hitchock who showed he was capable of such a feat (of one monsterous game) when he was named NLCS MVP.
I wouldn’t get overly excited about Hochevar’s 80 pitch CG against Cincinnati. The Reds do a fantastic job of completely sucking against rookie pitchers. I have no stats to back this up, but as a lifelong Reds fan (9.9.9!) it sure seems this way.
The Reds are a horrible OBP team this year, and that evening in KC was especially impressive. Their awesome lineup in that game included Willy Taveras & Alex Gonzalez at the top, Laynce Nix & Ramon Hernandez batting 4/5 (with Ramon playing 1B!), and rookies catching and playing third in the 8/9 holes. It seemed at the time to be an absolutely pitiful, impatient offensive performance, even if the pitcher has a limitless ceiling.
Yes, the Royals picked Hochevar ahead of Longoria, Kershaw, and Lincecum. But it could’ve been worse. The Rockies picked Greg Reynolds over Longoria that same draft. The Pirates picked Brad Lincoln over Kershaw. The Orioles picked Bill Rowell over Lincecum. It happens.
This is the first I have heard about Peter Gammons reporting on the 2012 All Star game. Was this on ESPN or online? If online do you have a link? I am not doubting it in any way but would just be interesting in reading the story if it is out there. If true it is rediculous.
[...] Joe Posnanski ” Blog Archive ” Lukkkkkkkkkkkkke [...]
I don’t know why there is a difference but I look for similar records on B-R and made my requirements 13Ks, 0BBs, and chose everyone in a 9 inning game from 1969. With those I got 97 pitchers who have accomplished it. You should have at least that many. Were there any other requirements you added to your search?
[...] Joe Posnanski ” Blog Archive ” Lukkkkkkkkkkkkke [...]
More than Maddux not recording a no-hitter, I can’t believe neither Pedro nor Clemens have ever had one. Two of the most hard to hit, strikeout pitchers never having one just doesn’t seem right. Pedro unofficially did have one, a perfect game even, when he was in Montreal but unfortunately his team didn’t score any runs for him so the game went into extra innings and he gave up a hit in the tenth. To me, that should qualify as a perfect game. It should be in the record books somewhere. He’s also gone into the ninth inning twice with a no-hitter and lost it.
Brilliant reader Lance here…
I think Wainwrights a mediocre pitcher in the midst of an unsustainable run. I could be wrong, I suppose. That’s not where my problems with your list end, however. I suspect that there isn’t a single MLB GM who would take Chone Figgins over Peavy or Oswalt. Some of the list…well…is just crazy. I usually agree with you, Joe, but I gotta call ‘em like I see ‘em.
By the way, I’ve got a new article up at Seamheads.com (http://seamheads.com/blog/2009/07/26/a-long-suffering-padres-fan-hardly/) in which I say some very nice things about you.
to me pedro is more surprising than clemens because, while pedro threw heat, i feel like clemens ball would run into a bat every once and awhile and make for some liners. pedro i think inspired uglier swings.
Joe, thanks for the list. I don’t understand how people can get upset and even insulting with a list like this, particularly given your introduction. Even if I didn’t agree with everything, I love stuff like this, and I hope the reaction won’t prevent you from ever doing something like this again.
Yeah, but aside from those 4 things, Wainwright over Oswalt is indefensible.
Isaac: Can you add “game started” to your criteria? I remember Randy Johnson striking out 16 in a relief appearance a few years ago – I think Schilling left after a few innings (Johnson probably walked someone, but perhaps some of your results are relief appearances). I can’t see that excluding a bunch of them, however.
[...] it mean that Hochevar, at the age of 25, is now finally firing on all cylinders? Joe Posnanski reminds us of the Bill James speculation that any player who has a 15K/0BB game is destined to be a good major league pitcher. But what [...]
“I think Wainwright’s a mediocre pitcher in the midst of an unsustainable run.”
I’m not sure what the basis is for that opinion, Lance. Wainwright’s fielding-independent pitching stats have been remarkably consistent during his ML career — he’s been getting incrementally better each year as a starter, but you would expect that as he matures, and there are certainly no sudden leaps to his record. What’s more, he’s bested Oswalt in FIP ERA in each of the past two seasons. What causes you to think Wainwright’s run is not sustainable?
I recall Maddux saying he didn’t think he’d ever throw a no-hitter because he was too much around the plate, but, if he did, it would be a perfect game, because in games where he was unhittable, he also had perfect control. I seem to recall a few 1 and 2 hit shutouts.
I agree it is much more odd that Pedro and Clemens don’t have them. But I would give it to Pedro. He went 9, didn’t give up a hit – that is the definition from the pitcher’s perspective.
These guys should play fantasy baseball. Roy Oswalt has 6 wins and a higher ERA, which means he has lower value.
The indefensible position is how Justin Morneau is not considered one of the top 5 players in the game, or even the best player on his team. Watch 3/4 games a week and you’ll see that he saves at least 1 error a week from happening at first and he gets more clutch hits than anyone on the team, Baby Jesus included – for all non MN residents that is Mauer. He’s leading the AL in HR, RBI, and hitting .315. Basically he’s doing everything Miguel Cabrerra was supposed to do this year. I don’t know how it is possible, but the guy has won an MVP and is still under valued.
It’s getting to the point where making subjective “best” lists (or power rankings, or whatever) is an exercise in futility. You should just publish a master equation (OPS+ * AB / age, or whatever), rank the players according to it, and then tell people to either suggest a change to the equation or STFU.
[...] • Prior to this season, Luke Hochevar had never quite delivered the minor league numbers to match his draft position (top overall pick in ‘06). Meanwhile, various other players from his class have already succeeded spectacularly in the big leagues (Lincecum, Brad Lincoln, Longoria, Kershaw, Scherzer, Joba). But Hochevar seemed to master Triple-A this year — he was 5-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at Omaha — and he’s been unexpectedly overpowering in his last two starts for Kansas City (22 Ks, 0 BB). Check the video of his last start here and note all the swinging Ks (11 of 13). The curve looks like a true put-away pitch. We recommend Joe Posnanski's quick write-up on Hochevar and the significance of his 13-K, no-walk start. "He has shown the clear potential for stardom," writes Joe. Hochevar will face Baltimore on Thursday. [JoePosnanski.com] [...]
[...] • Prior to this season, Luke Hochevar had never quite delivered the minor league numbers to match his draft position (top overall pick in ‘06). Meanwhile, various other players from his class have already succeeded spectacularly in the big leagues (Lincecum, Brad Lincoln, Longoria, Kershaw, Scherzer, Joba). But Hochevar seemed to master Triple-A this year — he was 5-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at Omaha — and he’s been unexpectedly overpowering in his last two starts for Kansas City (22 Ks, 0 BB). Check the video of his last start here and note all the swinging Ks (11 of 13). The curve looks like a true put-away pitch. We recommend Joe Posnanski’s quick write-up on Hochevar and the significance of his 13-K, no-walk start. "He has shown the clear potential for stardom," writes Joe. Hochevar will face Baltimore on Thursday. [JoePosnanski.com] [...]
Very exciting to see Hochevar pitching so well. Reasons to hope indeed …
[...] • Prior to this season, Luke Hochevar had never quite delivered the minor league numbers to match his draft position (top overall pick in ‘06). Meanwhile, various other players from his class have already succeeded spectacularly in the big leagues (Lincecum, Brad Lincoln, Longoria, Kershaw, Scherzer, Joba). But Hochevar seemed to master Triple-A this year — he was 5-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at Omaha — and he’s been unexpectedly overpowering in his last two starts for Kansas City (22 Ks, 0 BB). Check the video of his last start here and note all the swinging Ks (11 of 13). The curve looks like a true put-away pitch. We recommend Joe Posnanski’s quick write-up on Hochevar and the significance of his 13-K, no-walk start. "He has shown the clear potential for stardom," writes Joe. Hochevar will face Baltimore on Thursday. [JoePosnanski.com] [...]
The fundamental flaw with the 100 people to fill a team is that a team has more like 25 guys. I would have much rather read an article that constructed a team that spoke to utility guys, middle relievers and related that we never hear about. As it was, the article wasn’t much different than typically fantasy top 50’s or top 100’s that are published multiple times a week.