As for the “any team can go on a postseason run” business, you have to actually be in the postseason to go on a run like that. So the key seems to be to make the postseason, which Epstein has done almost every year. So what’s the problem? Is Dayton Moore on his way to making the postseason in a far easier division?

And the Texieria comment was a response to your statement that the Red Sox “can just sign any free agent that they want.” They obviously can’t do that, and Texieira is just one example that shows that they can’t, and that your claim was wrong, that’s all.

If Moore is on his way to developing young prospects, which prospects are in the pipeline? They obviously have no shortstop prospect ready in the minors, since they just traded a pitching prospect for Betancourt. Who is on the way in the minors that Moore is developing?

What has he actually done that is impressive after three years? What are some examples of his expertise as a GM, and signs that the team is on the right track?

He’s handed out real money to guys like Guillen and Farnsworth, and traded useful parts for other guys like Jacobs and Betancourt. Are these good moves?

And who are these GMs you talked about that don’t know anything about baseball other than how to look at a computer?

Take away the postseason for just one minute and talk Division Championships. Like I said Epstein is 1-7 in winning those. Anybody with half a brain would realize that over 162 games whoever wins the division was clearly the best team that year in the division hands down. The skill advantage of a team is huge to finish 1st place after 162 baseball games. Any team can get lucky in the postseason and go on a run… Look at the Colorado Rockies.

You said it yourself. Epstein’s huge payroll is an advantage. Not sure where your Mark Teixeira example comes in even though you probably think you have a point there lol. They could have afforded to sign Mark Teixeira for the price the Yankees did. However if you look into the history of that case it was announced that he always wanted to go to the Yankees and his wife did not want to live in Boston. So I assume when the Red Sox were told he wants to be a Yankee they just gave up on signing him. It wasn’t because they couldn’t afford it.

Epstein has drafted some good players. However he took over the team in 2002 and has had a lot of time to do so. Moore took over the Royals in the summer of 2006. And you say he hasn’t shown the ability to pick the right guys in the draft? It really isn’t an overnight process and I think he deserves at least a 3 more years to see what kind of players come out of his farm system.

He’s actually both, and continually points out that the Red Sox evaluate through “two lenses,” both scouting and stats. Any GM with any sense should do the same thing. More information is better.

“Both world championships they won in 2004 and 2007 they were down 3-0 to the Yankees and 3-1 to the Indians in the ALCS. Obviously they have had more than their share of luck in the postseason to win those 2 titles.”

Not sure why it’s considered “lucky” to come from behind in a series and win it. But anyway, most teams who win do have their share of luck. (Example: The Yankees came from way back against the A’s in a few series in their championship years, and also got help from Jeffrey Maier. Their titles still count.)

In 2003, it took ridiculously dumb managing to keep the Red Sox from winning the pennant. In 2008, they forced a Game 7 of the ALCS against Tampa, and came close to winning that series too. Breaks are part of the game, sometimes they go your way, sometimes they don’t.
They’ve made the playoffs 5 times in Epstein’s 6 years, despite being in the same division as NY and now Tampa.

“So looking back at the Red Sox under Theo. If they didn’t get extremely lucky and win those 2 World Championships… they would have zero World Championships and only 1 Division Title!”

And 5 playoff appearances in 6 years!

If Grady Little wasn’t a moron, then they have 3 pennants and possibly 3 championships. If Josh Beckett wasn’t hurting in the ALCS, they could easily have 4. It goes both ways, and close doesn’t count either way. The Sox have won 2. They could have won more or less, but they have 2. That’s pretty damn good. More than anyone else has in that time.

“He is basically 1 for 7 and he has a huge payroll to play with to where he can sign basically any free agent he wants.”

Like Mark Teixieria? Epstein does have a huge payroll, and that’s a real advantage. But they still can’t sign everyone they want, the Yankees see to that.

“Is his heavily weighted statical analysis philosophy by the far way to go?
Is being able to draft good prospects more important than being able to analyze stats?”

The best way to go is to draft well and develop your young players, using both stats and scouting to evaluate them.

It’s also important to wisely evaluate players on other teams, so that when a guy like David Ortiz gets non-tendered, you realize that he has potential to be a pretty good hitter. Or when a guy like Guillen or Betancourt is available, you know it’s probably not worth the money or the players to acquire them. Scouting and stats both indicate that Betancourt is unlikely to be good with KC. They both could be wrong in the end, but scouts don’t like him either, they say his range has fallen off and he’s gotten slow and doesn’t always hustle. Maybe getting dumped will wake him up and he’ll lose weight and try harder, who knows?

The point is, the Red Sox under Epstein have drafted well. They’ve developed a lot of good young players. The player development system they have in place is probably the best thing Epstein has done in his time with the team. They developed Pedroia, Youkilis, Papelbon and Lester, with more potentially on the way.

It’s not just picking the right guys in the draft, it’s instructing them and helping them turn into major leaguers instead of just throwing them out there and hoping for the best. Epstein’s done great with that. Moore’s organization hasn’t shown any ability to do that, really. Other small market teams have, like the Twins, so it’s not just money, it takes knowledge and effort.

“So i guess we will see in a few years if his non-statistical philosophy can also work and compete with the GM’s out there who don’t know anything about baseball but know how to sit in front of a computer and look at numbers.”

What GM would that be? It sure isn’t Theo Epstein.