Stats vs. Royals
Posted: July 12th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 102 Comments »
There is something about this whole Royals-Yuniesky deal that I can’t quite let go of … and I’m not entirely sure I’m going to be able to get at that something. It is more about being a fan, I think, than being a Royals fan.
A few months ago, I wrote about how one of the more frustrating things about being a fan is when you root for a team that so clearly has a different philosophy about sports than you have about sports. For instance, my buddy Chardon Jimmy is a huge fan of football defense … nothing thrills him more about the game than a team that focuses on stuffing the run and going after the quarterback. It is his burden in life, however, to be a Cincinnati Bengals fan, a team that — even in their rare good years — really doesn’t stuff the run or go after the quarterback. He still loves the Bengals because that’s his team and here in July, just before training camp, he is once again hopeful that his team will live up to his image (“I think they have the making of a dominant defense!”) but he is not unaware that for the last 35 years, he has been rooting for a football team that simply doesn’t see the world the way he sees it.
I suspect this isn’t uncommon. There are undoubtedly fans of fast-paced basketball who find themselves stuck rooting for teams that slowly dribble the ball up the court. There are undoubtedly college football fans of power running attacks who are stuck with teams that are playing the ubiquitous spread offense. There are undoubtedly baseball fans who love power and on-base percentage and find themselves stuck with a team trying to win with speed and defense. And so on. Every so often, you get lucky and the team you love plays precisely the style you love (and also wins) and that’s when it is magical. But it doesn’t happen very much.
I bring this point up again because it seems to me now that the hard truth about Yuniesky Betancourt is that, plainly, either the numbers I am looking at are wrong or the Royals are wrong. There is no middle ground here, no way for both of them to be right.
The numbers I see suggest that Yuniesky Betancourt is a terrible defensive shortstop. Not a mediocre shortstop. Not a talented but sloppy shortstop. Not a shaky shortstop. No. Terrible. Ghastly. Tragic. I’ve already shown you his UZR numbers, his John Dewan plus/minus numbers — they tell the story of a shortstop who was never especially great (despite his ability to make sensational plays) and has progressively gotten worse and worse until now he has no range, no consistency and might be the worst defensive shortstop in the game.
The Royals, obviously, believe this is entirely wrong. The numbers I have chosen to see are wrong. They believe Betancourt is actually a very good defensive shortstop with a chance to be the best. They believe that his problem is that he can be inconsistent but that he has tremendous ability and that with a new start, a stable environment, a firm but encouraging group of coaches and teammates, he can shake off that inconsistency and pull out that remarkable talent.
The numbers I see suggest that Yuniesky Betancourt is the worst every day offensive player in the American League and has been for quite some time. There are countless numbers I can use to make this point — at the most basic level, Betancourt’s .299 on-base percentage since 2007 is the worst in baseball for anyone with 1,300 or more plate appearances.*
*Here’s a little side note: Everyone here knows that I like the “Plus” statistics — I like ERA+ and OPS+ and so on — because I really do like statistics that attempt to measure a player against his league while taking into account the various quirks and peculiarities of the ballpark he plays in. Well, Yuniesky Betancourt’s OPS+ since 2007 is 85, which is fairly brutal — sixth worst in baseball over that time.
But in this case, I think OPS+ might make Betancourt look BETTER as a player than he actually is … and here’s why: The reason his OPS+ is 85 is because it takes into account the fact that he plays half his games in Seattle, which is a tough-tough hitter’s park. His straight OPS since 2007 is .691, which is awful, worst in the American League by far, second worst in baseball (behind the incomparable Jason Kendall). But he gets a couple of bonus OPS+ points because of the ballpark.
I bring this up because I saw that OPS+ and started to think that hey, maybe, just maybe, Betancourt’s numbers were being suppressed by his home park. Maybe if you took him out of Seattle, he would add a few points to his batting average, add three or four more home runs a year, that could take him out of awful and put him into passable, right?
Yeah, I thought that … until I saw his splits:
2007
Home: .295/.300/.454
Road: .284/.314/.386
2008
Home: .318/.340/.453 (!)
Road: .242/.259/.333
2009
Home: .262/.313/.346
Road: .239/.246/.316
So as you can see … Betancourt is actually A LOT better in Seattle that he has been on the road. I was shocked. For whatever reason, Seattle was the one place where he did hit quite well. In 2008 at home, he was basically Derek Jeter (minus a few walks — he doesn’t walk ANYWHERE). On the road, he was basically Neifi Perez — in fact, I’m going to show you something and if you are a Royals fan you will want to turn away. Everyone in Kansas City was saying the Royals should have “seen it coming” with Neifi because his numbers were so obviously inflated by his home park in Colorado. Well, this will blow your mind: In 2000, the last full year before Neifi Perez got traded, his home/road split in Colorado was this:
Home: .323/.333/.507
Road: .248/.293/.339
Now, compare those home/road splits with Yuniesky Betancourt in 2008 — and please tell me if your mind is blown.
Look, maybe Betancourt takes those home numbers with him — maybe the ballpark itself has nothing to do with his success, maybe it’s just the comfort of sleeping in his own bed, having the fans cheer for him or whatever. Maybe it’s just a fluke. Maybe in a better home ballpark he will put up even BETTER numbers at home. Maybe. But it’s also possible that while Safeco is a lousy park in general for hitters, it actually fits Betancourt for some reason and as soon as he is out of there, his numbers (and OPS+) will go down.
In case you are wondering: Betancourt’s career numbers at Kauffman Stadium in 70-or-so plate appearances (and this against the lousy Royals pitching) are: .246/.290/.308. So … yikes.
Anyway, numbers suggest Betancourt is a terrible offensive player. But the Royals, obviously, believe this is entirely wrong. They will mention a statistic of choice (he has a lifetime .279 batting average), but more they will talk about how he has the attributes of a potentially good hitter, he doesn’t strike out much, he has a little pop in his bat, and (once again) given that new start he might become a good (not necessarily great, but good) offensive player who will help the ballclub.
The numbers I see suggest Betancourt is in serious decline. He’s 27 now — he’ll be 28 in January — and the fact that his defensive statistics are in a free-fall, the fact that his offensive numbers fell off last year and have fallen way off this year (at age 26 and 27, which are often a players’ peak years), the fact that his pop-up numbers are on the rise — this year more than 21% of his fly balls are infield pop-ups — and the general belief that he has never been the hardest worker in the first place, all of these might lead you to believe that he is not going to get much BETTER from here on out.
But the Royals, obviously, disagree with this too. They see a guy who is only 27, a guy who still has a chance (given a fresh start and the right kind of attitude shift) to improve, perhaps only a little, perhaps a great deal.*
*This is pure opinion, but I have come to believe that the Royals biggest problem lately may have to do with their philosophy about a player’s age. It is SO important that a team understand the aging process of a player. I’m not here to tell you that I have it right and they have it wrong. But I will say this … the Royals signed a 32-year-old Jose Guillen in the belief that he would maintain his skills. He hasn’t. They traded for a 28-year-old Mike Jacobs in the hope that he would continue to hit with power while improving his weak spots (like his on-base percentage). So far — despite a good attitude and worth ethic — he has seriously gone backward. They traded for a 29-year-old Coco Crisp in the hope that he would provide an every day leadoff man and stability; he never looked entirely healthy and then he was out for the year.
Now, they’re trading for a 27-year-old guy who has shown signs of decline the last year and a half and they hope he will stem the tide and actually improve his earlier performance. I don’t know … lots of things are possible, but it seems to me that if you always are expecting someone 27 years or older to improve, or someone 32 years or older to sustain, well, that’s probably not a winning philosophy.
Now look: I could be misreading the numbers. I could be looking at the wrong numbers. And I would never write off the possibility that the Royals (who have much more information and have spent much more time studying the matter) are entirely right and I’m entirely wrong. In fact, I hope that’s true. I have always hoped for that.
But it gets us back to the point: Either the Royals are right or the numbers (as I look at them here) are right. For years now, Kansas City fans have been stuck rooting for the Royals to beat the numbers. And, for years now, the numbers have been kicking the Royals butts.
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Joe – as always a great piece – and one which goes so far beyond normal sports writing into what it is to be a fan.
I only wish you were writing about cricket and football too (or soccer as you would say) as I have not been able to find anyone who looks at them the same way you do about baseball, and the Royals.
It must really hurt being one of their fans just now – we feel your pain Joe!
Let’s be fair to Mike Jacobs, he seems to have gone backwards offensively after Trey batted him cleanup and after lots of time talking to Seitzer.
By the way, until one of your brilliant readers explained it recently, I thought “Circle me Bert” was a Sesame Street reference.
It was a disappointment to find out that it wasn’t!
IF Yuni is even 27. He looks older than 27, is declining physically faster than someone in their late 20s, and of course he’s Cuban, putting him anywhere between 30 and 47.
In talking to family members lately, I’ve been trying to get them to realize how much of a mistake this trade is. However, they are taking a position very similar to the Royals, optimistic that a new slate will turn things around.
I’m twenty years old. I’ve seen just a few winning Royals seasons in my lifetime; only one of which I consciously remember (and 2003 was a fluke). The Royals don’t deserve my optimism at this point.
Joe,
You have it right and they have it wrong.
As a Royals fan, watching the Royals reference stats in justifying their transactions and overall philosophy reminds me of Kevin Kline’s character Otto in the movie A Fish Called Wanda or Sarah Palin’s Katie Couric interviews.
Oh… and by the way… he’s CURRENTLY ON THE DL… SO HE CAN’T EVEN BE LOUSY on the active roster…
Oy.
I know it isn’t the Royals front office’s job to respond to this article and others you’ve written like it, but I sure wish someone would respond.
How do the owners react to this and the stuff Rany writes? Clearly they must see it.
If it isn’t already clear, there is going to be a lot more empirical evidence available twelve months from now which supports one view or the other. I hope we can pull this series of articles that you’ve written over the last month out then and evaluate who was right.
team vs philosophy is like the Maddon Principle. I love the Eagles, but when i used to play Maddon football in college I would always be the raiders and i wouldnt dream of being the eagles
Here’s what I always tell people who are averse to stats and statistical analysis…Stats are like big, fancy, quantitative scouting notepads. If I were to scout a game, I’d say things like “good eye,” “hits line drives,” “throws a lot of fastballs,” etc.
Stats have been created to measure the exact same things, only they do it in a numerical way. So when someone ignores the stats and says “well I’ve seen him do this and that” then they are essentially saying that they feel the accumulated results of the past few years do not reflect any kind of predictive pattern. They very rarely do without a fundamental change in the underlying skillset. The older a player gets, the less likely that skillset is to improve and the more likely it is to stay static or decline.
If the Royals FO thinks that Betancourt is likely to undergo said skillset adjustment, I’d say they are nuts. There is simply no metric that suggests Betancourt is anything other than a toolsy guy who also happens to be a poor poor baseball player.
the definition of insanity is repeating the same behavior, over and over again, and expecting a different result…
this is not on the Royals’ minds as they continue to trade for players in the waning years. its a string of thought that is both frustrating and mystifying…
of course, Dayton has had a serious mancrush on Yuni since, like, foreverrrr…
or maybe his bromance is with Bill Bavasi’s 63-99 Mariners of a couple years ago, considering we have had, at one point or another, Meche, HoRam, Willie, now Yuni, Hosey and a couple others i am forgetting at the moment…
Sorry for the incomplete thought, but Dayton needs some balances before he gets any more checks.
Obviously with the way the Royals have been playing, your way is right and they are completely wrong. What exactly are they looking at when they see the stats on some of these guys?
Put this in The Star, please.
Even as a Twins fan, I feel bad for Royals fans after this trade. Hell, I feel bad knowing that Moore said that they were going to improve the team’s OBP before this season, but he still has yet to get a player that would actually fulfill his preseason desire.
Regarding your intro about being stuck rooting for teams that don’t share your views:
I think Chuck Klosterman had the right view on this when he said:
“Basically, I am an intense fan of sports, but I am able to detach from the insane tendency of just rooting for any given team out of habit. And I’ll never understand why so many smart people refuse to think critically about sports.”
It really is insane to root for the same boring, mismanaged team just because you rooted for them last year, and the year before that.
Isn’t sports supposed to be fun? If you’re a Bengals fan, and they don’t share your views about hard-nosed defense… root for the Steelers, or any other defense-first team!
If the Royals management continues their quest to build a team of the worst hitters possible, why cheer for them? Move on to the Cardinals– they’re close, and they’re well-run. You’ll have a lot more fun following sports.
It’s not that the Royals’ are spending time “looking at the numbers,” they’re not looking at anything. They’re trusting their “scouting eye” because those are things that can’t be taught or measured with fluky statistics. That’s the Braves’ Way. That’s Dayton Moore. A presumably smart individual with no real ability to see what is actually going on with Baseball. The worst thing about Baseball, is Baseball people. They’re stuck in the old, traditionally way of doing things because that’s what they know. It’s a business run by an overwhelming number of people that are distinctly underwhelming in intelligence and education. There’s a reason why organizations are no hiring math scholars, and Ivy League grads, because the more smart people around, the better chance for growth. Unfortunately, for us Royals’ fans, Baseball is evolving, and leaving DM and the Royals’ organization far, far behind.
I know, I know. But the shortstop that started today currently has a .098 average and 5 errors out of 56 chances.
@ David (#9):
IIRC, the Royals attempted to BAN (from what, I’m not exactly sure) Rany after his piece regarding the injuries/trainers for the Royals. I think they eventually retracted the ban, but obviously do see these pieces, and they don’t take kindly to them.
You guys value stats way too much. I’m not saying the Betancourt trade it a good one. I actually agree with you guys because I thought getting rid of Cortes was not smart. Sometimes it does take a guy with a good eye for talent… and it’s just that simple. You have stat nerd #1 Billy Beane. He gets raved about what a great job he does, all I see is somebody who puts together teams who are lucky if they finish the season with a .500 record. Stat nerd #2 Mark Shapiro. Obviously his computer database is broken because the Indians are terrible. Stats are not everything and you guys take it too far sometimes.
Joe –
Great piece, and it’s even worse than all of this. I am a Mariners’ fan, and suffered through five years of being on the other end of trades like this one, and even then I can’t delight in any schadenfreude over this trade.
The list of people who have tried to work with Yuni over the past few years to turn his tools into good baseball, either through outright instruction or by example, is like a who’s who of how to play the game the right way. And…he…still…just…didn’t…get it. If Mike Hargrove, Raul Ibanez, Adrian Beltre, Edgar Martinez, Ken Griffey Jr., and Ichiro Suzuki, to name just a few, couldn’t inspire this guy to play better ball (and all were enlisted at one point or another to do so), who do the Royals think can do it?
Yuni seems like a great guy, and both for his and the Royals’ sake, I hope he does eventually turn it on. But like you, I think the numbers argue against it.
Is it me, or do the Royals seem to have an inordinate number of fans who are also stat guys. They’ve had Bill James, Rob Neyer, and who knows who else in their backyard, and to my knowledge, haven’t attempted to hire any of them. What a shame!
stats nerd #3 Theo Epstein. stats nerd #4 Andrew Freidman. stats nerd #5 Ned Coletti. stats nerd #6 Bob Melvin. #7 Jon Daniels…..yeah, it’s all hog-wash. The game is evolving, sit in your rocker with your lemonade waxing poetic about the good-ol-days of the stolen base and pitchers throwing 25 CGs a year, we’ll be over here winning and still trying to improve.
David,
I hear what you are saying but there is just something inherently wrong about switching horses in mid stream. It denotes a weakness on the fan’s part that ends up justifying what other teams’ fans say when they only see 10K people at a baseball game. “Their fans aren’t very good.” “They don’t support their team.” “Where are all their fans?” Etc. Look, I get queasy when I hear how great St. Louis & Red Sox fans are. Why wouldn’t they be? They’ve had solid ownership & management for at least the last 30 years. I know that their fans wouldn’t be so rabid if they had the poor leadership the Royals have had for the last decade & a half. People are the same all over. The difference is of course that those cities have media that tend to pick apart every single move their baseball teams make (similar to the Chiefs & KC media but more so). What we need is a concerted effort by this media to focus a highly intense beam of critical & intelligent thought on this team day in & day out (even during the off-season) in order to effect change. St. Louis & Boston would simply not sit still for this kind of prolonged ineptitude. But KC media, perhaps reflecting its amiable midwestern ways, can’t bring itself to lambaste the Royals when it’s warranted (which is quite often). And they continually go out of their way to avoid confrontation with ownership as if deathly afraid that they’ll pick up and move away at the first sign of insurrection. Or perhaps it’s the fear that their access to the vaunted treasure trove of info that springs from the Front Office will be ripped away (as has happened in recent years to a couple of people, LOL). It’s been 3 days since yet another infamous blunder that has been roundly criticized by the few national sports reporters that continue to acknowledge this ‘organization’ and yet there has been not ONE SINGLE commentary from the hometown reporters/columnists. Oh sure, Doolittle has a blog, Joe’s blog. But no article in the Star with the kind of commentary that this particular blog has put forth. Within hours after this move, the StL Post or the Boston Globe would have had 2 or 3 scathing articles scorching their respective organizations for another ‘inept and clueless bridge to nowhere.’ But nada from the Star as of Sunday afternoon. This is part of the problem. Even the local media have become so jaded (and yet, for some reason, scared) that they will not come out, guns blazing, like other towns. Come on guys. The Royals can’t ban everyone from the Star. The rest of the universe could care less. Without the Star, the Royals would cease to exist all together.
Well he fits into the picture… To me he can replace aviles for the rest of the year. I think he will raise his average being here in kaufman. He can maybe use some points from seitzer but there styles of hitting coinflict. I checked out some splits from Yuni and when he swings with an 0-0 count or an 0-1 count he is batting 330 plus. The guy is so good at contact hitting that it has lead to a poor obs. But with some patience it really can change the way he is hitting the baseball by allowing him to take more pitches draw himself into better counts.
Most importantly this pushes aviles to work hard to have to earn a spot back on the starting lineup. Which leaves us with either Yuni on the bench next season or aviles. Both of those players are miles ahead of the bench guys we have now on the bench.(not including bloomquist who is more of a second basemen).
Dan cortes is a guy who has had alot of off field issues and im not really bugged by having to give him up.
Betancourt will be a bottom of the other top guy who can hit for average move runners over and put the ball in play which this team simply hasnt been able to do that all season long. I think if betancourt can work hard he can regain some consistency and if nothing else be a pretty solid backup for mike aviles and a decent fill in guy for the rest of this season. I dont expect this to be our only move of season as far as major league trades for us this season.
@Pete (#11), I absolutely agree with you that stats are a quantitative way of measuring what we see on the field, and that it’s ridiculous for teams to ignore them when making decisions about players. However, I do think it’s important to remember the value of other kinds of input– I didn’t see this in your post, but I do think it’s an important point to bring up.
Numbers are really helpful at gathering and enumerating information that gets overlooked or dismissed by our sometimes silly brains. But they certainly aren’t perfect– sometimes they don’t measure what we think they do, or there are other factors at work. Sometimes there’s a factor affecting performance that we can’t or haven’t yet learned to account for. It’s just as important for us stat geeks to remain humble as it is for the scouts and others who seek to make judgments about players.
…None of which is to say we should give the Royals the benefit of the doubt vis a vis their recent moves. I’d say a front office has to earn that.
I just discovered this blog and I think it is fantastic. Excellent work every time.
To be THAT guy, I just want to suggest that maybe, sometimes, a player can really turn a career around and be an entirely different player at ANY point in his career. Who knows? For those optimistic Royals fans, there is an infinitely slim but present chance that Betancourt could learn from the Royals coaching staff ways to improve his offense and defense that he just couldn’t with Seattle’s staff.
I just remember when Betancourt first came up and marveled at the plays he made. He’s got a gun, too, if I remember right (Seattle’s not really a team of special interest for me).
Just playing the “what if?” card. But I totally understand that, going by his consistently horrific stats over his career, this is a terrible trade and he’s a terrible player. We’ll see, I guess.
Excellent analysis by Mr. Posnanski.
I think some of the folks here trying to put a positive spin on things have the right idea. Remember, the more we criticize, the longer it’s going to take Dayton to admit he made a mistake.
To be fair, the one guy with a worse OPS since 2007 than Yuni is leading off for the Brewers.
But Jason Kendall is a gritty gamer who can be a sparkplug for an offense, which just isn’t measured in OPS.
I like this and pretty much everything else Joe writes. But I like to imagine Betancourt turning away from the last two posts on this site and saying to the guy next to him “Excuse me, I’m new in town. Any idea what the fuck I ever did to this guy?” And Trey Hillman replies “Tell me about it.”
David Howard wants his adjectives back. You take your “gritty gamers,” I’ll take those with talent. And win. Kendall has an OPS of .597. He has 10 – 10! – extra-base hits in 78 games. He belongs in this lineup. He has no value. Read Rany’s latest post, Kendall is awful.
Be honest. Who really liked the Bloomquist signing? Everyone said “he only had one extra base hit all season!” WB now leads the league in triples. Let’s judge this move in September.
Yuni is a good guy, but–on a whole–an average ball player. Even the Mariner’s announcers would openly refer to his major weakness–an inability to look at pitches, draw walks. I think part of the reason I liked him, though, was that he’d often come-up with very clutch hits (of the late-inning double or homer variety). While I don’t think that he will improve your ballclub, I do think that he will be fun to watch. I hope he fulfills his potential in KC.
All of the arguments about stats vs. scouting make me think of blackjack. Based on the math, in blackjack you should always hit a 16 when the dealer’s up card is a “10″. A stathead will know this and hit his 16, even though he’ll bust a majority of the time. A scout would watch other people keep busting after hitting on 16, so he’d stay. Of course, we all know that the people that hit on 16 make more money in the long run.
I’d bet anything that DM stays on all his 16s (and also doesn’t split his 8’s)!
One more thing…trading for Betancourt is like staying on a 14 against a dealer’s 10. Even if he plays well, it doesn’t make it a good trade.
You hit the nail right on the head.
“Every so often, you get lucky and the team you love plays precisely the style you love (and also wins) and that’s when it is magical.”
Roy Williams at KU for me.
The Royals are the suckers betting single numbers at the Roulette wheel. They got lucky and hit on Meche, and now they are trying to do the same thing over and over and over and over and over and…..
DM would NEVER hit a 12 against a dealer’s 2. I’m willing to bet he doesn’t even know what “basic strategy” is.
I’m not sure what cheers me up more; that Paul McC believed “Circle Me Bert” was a Sesame Street* reference, or that so many Royals and non-Royals fans feel my pain.
Thanks, Joaldo.
*I believe Bellwether J. started that rumor…
I’m not supporting bandwagons jumpers (like when I taught in Iowa in the early 90s and had students claim that had “always” been fans of Duke or the Cowboys).
But if your favorite TV show starts to such, you might stop watching. If your favorite band or musician turns out crap, you stop buying tickets and CDs. Nobody is expected to like a writer just because she is local or because you liked her as a kid.
Sports fans need to hold teams accountable by NOT pledging undying loyalty. We’ll stick with you through thick and thin, but not through dumb and dumber.
I don’t know the pitchers that were traded, but the trade could help the team. At least, Yuniesky Betancourt is better than Tony Pena. Also, Mike Aviles isn’t having a good year. At BBR, Betancourt’s #1 Similar Batter through 26 is Aaron Hill (2009 AL AS).
“At least, Yuniesky Betancourt is better than Tony Pena.”
What an absurd statement. Honestly, how do you type the above sentence without committing Seppuku?
I don’t believe any team can win by trying to fix other teams broken players, but the Royals clearly believe that is the only way to go.
I had high hopes for Dayton Moore, but he’s fielding the KC Braviners and last I checked those two teams he keeps “stealing” from don’t seem to have won with them or be missing them when they’re gone…
Just want to let you know as a Mariners fan there were a couple things to like about Yuni that don’t show up in the stat column, and there was also one great number that does show up in the stat column. The guy is a clutch hitter, it’s not opinion. In fact in my mental jungling act of infielders, I was trying to see if there was a way to get Brandon Phillips and still keep Lopez and Betancourt. It took me a long time of running it over in my head before I had finally surcome to the realization Betancourt was going to have to be odd man out. But the fact that I went through that mental process in hopes of finding a way shows you that for an every day Mariners fan, there was still something I liked about him. There are many that want him gone and are glad for the trade, those were the same people complaining that we gave up a bunch of overrated prospects and an Indy League reliever for ONE OF FOUR legitimate TOR (top of the rotation) lefties in baseball, when Bedard was acquired. I’m a stat geek also, but there is something that can be seen with the eye that numbers will never say.
I know FOR SURE that Betancourt had 5 HR stolen from over the fence last year, YES FIVE, so figure those into his totals for last year if they didn’t get caught by a guy leaping at the fence and he looks a little better last year. Betancourt also seems to be motivated best by yelling and complaining. Being told he’s not good enough is what drives him to be better. He didn’t fit into Wakamatsu’s system and I don’t think he responded well to the “silent assassin” approach of Wak… Atleast they call him the “silent assassin” because of his coaching method here on the Mariners broadcasting station.
Sorry to be so long winded, but I guess I’m trying to give you enough to sort through and find your own answers. I just know that I was hppy when Betancourt came up with the game on the line. I felt confident that he could give us the big hit and soon you’ll notice that he’ll be at the center of every rally throwing in and he’s unselfish enough to bat his best at 9th (usually means you are labeled the worst hitter of the starters) and 2nd (where you have to hit behind runners and sacrifice guys over). There have been many times in the last few years that Betancourt’s numbers have suffered because he laid down bunts to move over runners or they did hit-and-run, not giving him the chance to draw a walk. He’s a good player and I think he’ll be the second coming of Raul Ibanez. A Mariner reject that flourishes in a warm climate and under low expectations.
*mental juggling act of fielders*
I’ve had a thought come and go from time to time and I never make note of it or write it down, but I guess it’ all about timing, so here it is… I think Beltre adversely effected Betancourt. If you’ve ever watched Beltre vacuum up balls at 3B, you’ll notice that he tends to cut off some balls that would normally go to the SS. I have often seen him cut in front of Betancourt and the result was an irritated look on Yuni’s face and it appeared like he was dragging *ss the next few plays because he had that “Beltre will get it anyways, so why bother” and then the ball gets to him and he’s not ready to react. With a solid but unspectacular 3B, you’ll probably see the rookie and sophomore year Betancourt defensively, as he’ll feel more of the burden for protecting the left side of the infield.
I guess I would say this… Don’t expect gold gloves, but you can count on a progression of defense to league average or better. Offensively, I’ve felt for a long time that he could be a 15-20 HR hitter in a non-pitchers park. I don’t think he does weights either and maybe the Royals will change that for him. Just don’t give up on Yuni, if you guys support him, he’ll quickly feel at home and it will probably elevate his home numbers in Kaufmann stadium. Plus you guys got him for the next 3+ years, you might as well try to like him. I know I’ll always be a Yuni fan.
#44 They got a better player to play SS.
You want to know how good a player is? Ask a betting man.
I’m a M’s fan, and I don’t think anything Kurt said is true. You cannot be a stats geek, and spend time juggling how to keep Yuni on your baseball team. I think those two posts almost made my head explore. Anyways, Yuni is probably now at about the level of a triple A shortstop, maybe a little better. He is very lazy, and we have been trying for a long time to change him. It hasn’t work. I don’t really care to much that you got ripped off- the Royals haven’t mattered for a long time. There is currently only one position player who good enough to be on a play-off caliber team. The farm system isn’t very strong. It will be at least five years before the Royals make the playoffs again.
For his career, Betancourt has hit .273/.293/.382 with runners in scoring position. He’s hit .252/.285/.347 with 2 outs and runners in scoring position. He’s hit .275/.298/.391 in “late and close” situations. So it would seem that in the clutch, Yuniesky Betancourt hits like Yuniesky Betancourt. Take that as you will.
The sad part, to me, is that the Royals have essentially put their fans in the position of hoping that this move fails. The numbers say that it will, but there are always exceptions, and Betancourt could be one of them. He could come to KC and turn his career around to become a solid, perhaps even good player, a borderline all-star in the league where Derek Jeter continues to reign supreme due to lack of competition.
If that happens, the Royals’ terrible player evaluation staff will consider themselves vindicated. There is virtually no chance, based on the evidence available, that they’ll see it for the fluke that it would be, and would instead use it as evidence that their approach is the proper one. The acquisitions of Pena and Crisp and Guillen and Olivo and Jacobs and Bloomquist will be forgotten or written off as victims of circumstance/injury, as they clutch to the singular success, the nut stumbled upon by the blind squirrel.
If Betancourt become Jeter-lite as a Royal, this move could actually prolong the franchise’s doldrums for even longer than if he would just continue to be Yuniesky Betancourt.
I think the Royals front office is moonlighting for the Mets, and pulling off Francoeur trades. He’s young, got potential, you’re not seeing it.
I laughed out loud at the Royals thinking Yuni can benefit from a fresh start. Name one ballplayer in the last 5 years or so whose defense or plate discipline was successfully nurtured by the Royals. I can’t either.
And I’m one of those fans stuck rooting for a team with a different philosophy. I was born into an Iowa State family. The Clones athletic department does not share my philosophy that a few wins every now and then would be a good thing.
Francoeur is hitting .444 as a Met. Man, don’t YOU guys look stupid.
I’m sorry, what? “Sample size”? Uh, we’re not talking about the little pieces of cheese they give away at supermarkets, we’re talking about baseball. Geez, you nerds make no sense. Nerds.
Yeah, it’s frustrating as a fan when your philosophy is a team should do things shown to help teams win, and the team you’re following doesn’t follow that philosophy at all.
As a shell shocked Mets fan, I feel ya Joe. My philosophy is use the core of Santana, Wright, Reyes, Beltran to build a contender for numerous years by getting good players to fill in the gaps around them. Omar’s philosophy seems to be use the core of Santana, Wright, Reyes, Beltran as blame-magnets for nonsensical intangible reasons to distract the lazy columnists who like to write about “edge” and “leadership” from the fact that he has surrounded them with crappy baseball players.
My philosophy is acquire good players. His is acquire ridiculously terrible players, especially ones that have played on hated division rivals for several years.
I like to sell high and buy low. Omar prefers to do the opposite, just to keep people guessing (at how preposterously dumb a man can be and still keep a highly paid job running one the top 5 payroll franchises in MLB).
My philosophy is that a manager is only marginally important and is more easily replaceable than most major league baseball players. His is to keep around inept field generals as fall guys when his poorly constructed rosters fall short of the postseason, while in the meantime bending to their whims by trading away serviceable major leaguers whom Mr. Manuel doesn’t like personally (Church, Castro) in order to give more playing time to sub-replacement level players (Santos, Francoeur) who have been deemed “scrappy” and “gangsta” by the manager. I call them “scrangsta”.
F#$% Jeff Francoeur.
“F#$% Jeff Francoeur” would make a good name for a website.
I think Joe or someone should try to figure out why sports fans stick with teams that stink. As someone said, we don’t stick with Coke when they change recipes, we don’t stick with tv shows that jump the shark, we don’t keep buying stuff once that company starts producing junk, why do we keep rooting for sports teams that stink?
And for all those that say people that don’t go to games are “fair weather, bandwagon jumpers”…..if people keep going to the games while the team stinks, what, exactly, is the incentive for the team to get better?
I think many sports fans are conditioned very early on to feel as if their team is kind of an extended family. You can see it in many people’s language: “We” need to get better pitching. “We” have a good chance at the playoffs this year. As a result, quitting on the team viewed in a similar light as quitting on your family.
What just breaks my heart about this trade is that it shows DM is not just ignorant of modern baseball analysis–it’s that he shows an almost willful temptation to show the statheads that they are wrong. It recasts all of his previous decisions in an incredibly negative light.
The 1977 Royals are apparently taking a big interest in Supreme Court decisions.:
http://www.mcsweeneys.net/2009/7/13wexler.html
If anyone heard Moore’s interview this morning on 810 he pretty much thumbed his nose at UZR as a valid defensive metric, opting instead for the obtuse qualifier “make-up”.
I enjoy laughing at the old school baseball mentality that is still so prevalent throughout MLB and some media folks – Steve Phillips is my favorite; Joe Morgan is second. But when that mentality is affecting my team’s ability to perform it nauseates and saddens me. The Royals will never be anything more than a .500 team at best with the Glass, Moore, Hillman triumvirate.
Maybe if we got rid of Moore and replaced him with a more sabermetric friendly GM we could handle cheap-a$$ Glass. And I am positive the first move a wise GM would make would be to send Hillman back to Japan.
Mike
Can someone, ANYONE, please explain to me why I should keep watching this team? I have been an avid Royals fan for 17 years, even a season ticket owner from 2003-present. But after this I cant spend another dime on a team that cares so little, no, NONE about their fan base. How can they even call themselves the “Royals” anymore? I think they need to officially change their name. I think from now on every player needs to have “Soyals” embroidered in Royal blue on their uniforms. There is nothing royal about this organization. How can they defend this move?? So please can someone tell me why I need to support this team anymore?
I can’t believe someone cited Beane and Shapiro as arguments against the sabermetric way of thinking. Yes, both teams have had some bad years lately, but both have been seen as model franchises and overachievers for a long time, given their payroll limitations.
Beane had a book written about his system, for cripe’s sake (and once some of his tactics were more widely known, he had to find new inefficiencies in the market and new ways of beating out higher-payroll teams, which has obviously been pretty hard.)
Simply put, there’s no way anyone can legitimately dismiss the role of good statistical work in properly evaluating players without coming off as willfully ignorant or simply a rube to anyone who’s been paying any attention whatsoever to the ways in which understanding of the game have deepened.
Precisely.
One more puny observation. How many guys have the Royals brought in hoping that a change of scenery would help? And how many times did it? Off the top of my head, I can’t really think of one. (Doesn’t mean there isn’t, I just can’t think of him.) Dye and Bannister were under-utilized in their previous teams and more undiscovered than needing a new home. So, who was a legitimate player, tapered off, was traded to the Royals, and recovered their previous glory?
I keep reading about guys who will improve with that scenery change, but they are usually the same guys after the sets are different. The play remains the same.
Yes, Yuni is better than Pena. So are they all. But at this point he is not replacing Pena, he is replacing Bloomquist. So they are losing at the bat, in the field on the base paths, and in the wallet.
They have another Guillen like player that they will be “forced” to play because they cannot trade him and will not eat the salary.
The Mariners have young shortstops and probably would have DFA’d Yuni before next year, so even if you wanted him (and I don’t see why) you could have played the Spork for the remainder of the year and then get Yuni for nothing.
I am done with Dayton. He is now a lame duck that will probably get 5 more years because Glass does not know to or care about building a winner.
Just read the Elias Sports Bureau stats from 2008 through July 11, 2009. (See well-written MLBTradeRumors.com article by Tim Dieker from July 12th.) Yuniesky Betancourt falls just below the B-rated free agent level, with a rating of 56.55. He is one point short of Twins shortstop Brendan Harris (57.74), and ahead of Erick Aybar, LAA ss (56.55), Ceaser Izturis, Orioles ss (51.79), Ramon Santiago and Adam Everett, Tigers shortstops (51.79, 36.31, respectively), Nick Punto, Twins ss (48.21), Elvis Andrus, Texas ss (26.49), and Red Sox temp ss Nick Green (22.02). Clearly, Bentancourt is not D Jeter, but the above suggests he might be servicable until we can get Mike Aviles back in form (he rates higher than all above, and qualifies as a Class B free agent) or someone else that is both quality and AVAILABLE.
I think you all should become General Managers. Clearly you are all geniuses that only need 1-2 years to turn a terrible team around into a world series contender.
So Moore said this on the radio this morning:
“The defensive statistics – I still really don’t understand how some of those statistics are evaluated, I really don’t. When you watch baseball games every single day, its very apparent who can play defensively and who can’t.”
We have Joe Morgan as our GM.
@ Mike (#71):
The point isn’t that everyone here would be able to turn a terrible team into a contender. The point is that everyone here – or almost everyone, at least – would not make decisions that make a terrible team demonstrably worse. It is not a high standard to impose upon someone whose job expectation, one presumes, is to do better than to simply not make things worse. Yet it is a standard that is apparently too difficult for the current Royals management to achieve.
Mike @#71: I agree with everything in Sabby’s comment above, but I’d like to add one thing. You know why a lot of observers think they’re smarter than Moore? Because, more often than not, they’ve proven that they are. They hated the Guillen deal and were right. They hated the Jacobs deals and were right. They hated the Olivo deal and the Farnsworth deal and the Horacio Ramirez deal and were right on all of them. There have been some exceptions, like the Meche deal, but the critics of Moore have been right a LOT more than they’ve been wrong. He needs to prove the naysayers wrong a few more times before he deserves to be cut any slack.
This trade reminds me of the Odalis Perez/Elmer Dessens deal, except that it doesn’t. The Dodgers were so desperate to get rid of Odalis Perez that they gave us two additional prospects and cash. Weren’t the M’s pretty much in the same boat? Was there another team in baseball who would have even considered taking Betancourt? If we had given the M’s Tony Pena Jr., and gotten $5 MM back in the deal, it still wouldn’t have been a great deal, because we’d still be on the hook for $5 MM. But at least then you see it as the kind of gamble it should be. If it works, then great, DM is a genius. If not, well, it cost the Royals a roster spot and an average amount of salary.
GMDM has gotten quite a bit of the benefit of the doubt up until now. But he’s used up any good will that came with the job. From here on, every move he makes has to pay immediate dividends because there is no longer any reason to trust his judgement.
This is the trade that will severely the loyalty of the Moore supporters. This trade is so abysmally awful and so counter to the lip service GMDM has given OBP that his supporters should be jumping ship like rats.
Joe, I would be be thrilled if someone in the media would politely ask Mr. Moore if he thinks we are stupid??
I had to think about the Auburn Tigers football team when I read this post. Auburn has had a fair amount of success over the years. Their identity has always centered around a power running game and good defense. Some called them running back U. Bo Jackson, James Brooks, Lionel James, Joe Cribbs, William Andrews, Brent Fullwood, Rudi Johnson, Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown….
They had a pretty good thing going. Running backs and good power offensive lineman were pretty easy to recruit with a system and a history like that. So what does Auburn do? They switch over to a spread offense. Apparently they didn’t like that the top receiver prospects in the area would pick their rivals more often than not so catered their entire offensive philosophy to address that perceived “problem”.
Predictably, the offense sucked and they stopped winning games. I’m sure most people don’t care, but they’re one of the better recent cases of a team that ignores common sense.
If Dayton Moore got sick, do you think he would go to a medieval barber like on the old SNL sketch or do you think he believes in modern medicine?
For those of us that have had the pleasure to watch Yuni for the last few years in Seattle, I can say without a doubt he’s gotten worse every single year. Somewhere along the way, he decided he didn’t want to practice as much or try as hard, every single year. If the M’s new management (fantastic!) can’t do anything with him, I don’t have much faith that the questionable talent of the Royals’ management can motivate him. Maybe he’ll start working out of spite, but I’m glad he’s someone else’s problem now.
If you want in-depth analysis on how craptastic he’s been, check out ussmariner.com (I’m not affiliated with them at all, just a loyal reader).
Joe, in the 3rd paragraph, you used the phrase ‘trying to win with…’ Besides pitching, what do you believe the plan held by the front office to be, to finish that phrase? What is the timeline for that plan? It appears that they are concentrating on building the farm system, and stocking the major league club with what they can afford. Unfortunately, most position acquisitions made have not panned out for the money spent. I am hoping that the current front office will display judgement of talent skills similar to Cedric Tallis, when he first built the Royals. Unfortunately, talent evaluation in this day is much more data intensive, and levels the trading odds for those who make use of the data. Tallis pulled off remarkable trades in the late 60s and early 70s. That probably can not be duplicated without using all data available today. A team not using the latest data is most likely on the wrong side of future remarkable trades.
On a lighter note:
http://www.mcsweeneys.net/2009/7/13wexler.html
What were Betancourt’s minor league splits?
Would be interesting to know if he’s got a long-term history of performing well at home, or whether it was more likely a Safeco-specific effect.
Joe,
Sometimes I wonder if statistical analysis would be used on a wider scale if Moneyball was never written. It seems to have alienated the typical baseball scouts and front office personnel in some places and resulted in them pushing back against using stats. I think it’s evident that the Kansas City front office is pushing back now. Unfortunately they’re okay with being wrong as long as they say they’re right.
I just feel badly for Royals fans. Hell, even a team decked out with Russell Martin-type hitters busting out some .255/.370/.310 line would be a vast improvement. I feel bad for Jacobs because it looks like he’s tried to improve. In fact, he’s swinging at WAY less pitches out of the zone in 2009. But his contact skills are still out of whack, even with vastly improved plate discipline, teams can sneak pitches past him without worrying about being hurt like they would vs. Adam Dunn or Carlos Pena.
Back to the point, though, it’s hard to empathize as a Red Sox fan, but it seems like instead of using science and data to try to field a competitive team, the Royals just put together “toolsy” teams and hope it all comes together. Never does. No matter how much they wish, Miguel Olivo will never be a .300/.390/.520 guy, Jose Guillen was never a $12 mil / yr player, and so on.
jhill [#70]: Yuni is close to Type B free agency largely because he’s played a lot – a disproportionate amount of what goes into the rankings has to do with playing time as opposed to quality, so if the Royals keep running him out there, they might get some minor compensation IF someone signs him after he becomes a free agent.
Of course, while he is an improvement over Pena with the bat, you still have to wonder why they’d make this deal. Even if he reaches the upper edge of his demonstrated talent level, he’s not going to make enough of a difference while he’s in KC to make the team noticeably better, both because he’s not actually a good player and because the team’s so bad, they won’t compete for some time.
Maybe it’s an optics thing. Maybe the Royals just felt embarrassed when they ran Pena, Hernandez and Hulett out there way too often – it can’t feel good when your best offensive option (by far) is barely above the Mendoza line. And, of course, they don’t seem willing to give Bloomquist a chance to play every day (he’s no great shakes, but he’s at most marginally worse than Betancourt.)
This is actually a comment on the joint Pos/Bill James column on the SI site re exhibitions (that I don’t see here).
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/07/13/james.allstar/index.html?eref=sihpT1
Four observations:
(1) Exhibitions are still numerous and important in certain international sports. I was surprised to see no mention of soccer or tennis exhibitions. Even ignoring soccer exhibitions in Europe, they are common enough in the U.S., either between visiting euro teams (Chelsea and A.C. Milan have an upcoming exhibition in Baltimore with lots of tickets sold) or euro vs MLS, or international. And some ok tennis exhibitions are better attended than the second-tier tourneys on U.S. soil.
(2) It was touched on that the touring exhibitions in the baseball offseason used to reach warm weather cities, and that Cali didn’t have any teams at the time of the heyday of the Feller all-stars, etc., but I think more could have been made of the expansion of the leagues. There are many more U.S. metro areas (and regions) with pro teams in one or more team sport than there used to be. (The carolinas and Tennessee were once a pro sports void; now they have two NFL teams, two hockey teams, and an NBA team.) And, combined with the fact that transportation between cities is so much easier than it was even 20-30 years ago, anyone who wants to see a “serious” event in person, at least for the Big 4 pro sports, can easily do so. Or if they live somewhere without easy access it probably doesn’t have enough population to create much exhibition gate anyway. And, an outgrowth of the more-teams-more-metro-areas phenomenon is that there was created extra capacity for the schedule expansion Bill James discussed. The NFL plays many more games, but the frequency of repetition of non-divisional games probably hasn’t changed all that much.
(3) National sports TV (mostly cable) just compounds the problems of #2. TV didn’t immediately kill exhibitions, of course. If anything, it created new opportunities for exhibitions that were incompatible with large live audiences. (Loved the home run derby reference–watching old reruns of it as a kid I was always struck by how weird it was that there wasn’t a packed house for it.) But, with multiple cable channels now sending “meaningful” events of every sport and nearly every team all over the country, just about anyone who cares can see any athlete play at least a few times a year on tv.
(4) Video games. I can’t prove this at all, but knowing how my friends and I used them way back in the 90s before they got so realistic, it seems that they should diminish the appetite for real exhibitions because you can create your own imaginary ones. We were constantly creating all-star/mixed/odd teams in the games that allowed moving players among teams. And I know anecdotally that people used Madden to play out various NFL what-ifs of player movement. Moreover, this is just more time that people, especially in their teens and twenties are “watching” semi-meaningless sports. One might expect that to crowd out other semi-meaningless sports watching time. And, yes, there was stratomatic and other such things back in the day, but you could watch a real game on tv while playing one of those. You can’t do that with a video game.
21% of his outs are pop-ups?!?!? That might be the most disheartening stastic that links him to the infmaous Neifi “Pop-up” Perez. That guy was NOTORIOUS for the ill-timed, rally-killing (given that there actually was a “rally” to be had in the Neifi Era) pop-up. It almost got to the point with Neifi were you felt sorry for him, in that he was so overmatched by big league pitching that all he could muster was an infield pop-up; however I would then recall his copious salary and the feeling would dissipate. I’m trying to be optimisitic about the Betancourt move…one (most) would call it a naive approach, but here’s to the hail mary that is Yuniesky Betancourt actually panning out.
#68, How about Juan Gonzalez??? Oh wait a sec,bad example.
Bring back Freddy Patek!
It makes no sense. You would think that every organization has some minor leaguer they could plug in and get at least similar production and make the minimum. Yuniesky is making over 2 million dollars and is unlikely to put up better numbers than he has over his first couple of seasons.
Yuniesky – the King of Pop-Up?
Joe, Im another avid royals fan who just recently discovered this blog. I dont have the energy to go on a rampage about management. I agree with you totally. Honestly though, you and other writers in the Kansas City Star have to SLAUGHTER the Royals. Until they take a Tamba Bay like philosophy and get some management in there who wants more than to just beat the odds we will be freaking screwed forever.
I have a question on certain things I was always wondering. Anybody who answers and tries to help me I would really appreciate it. A lot of people here are very into stats and like to bash Dayton Moore about his lack of understanding them and that’s fine.
But lets look at a team like the Boston Red Sox for a minute and their GM Theo Epstein. Epstein took over in 2002 and clearly with his background he is not a “baseball guy” but a “stat guy”. Obviously he gets a lot of praise about what a great job he has done with the Red Sox and I’m sure he deserves it.
However since he took over the Red Sox in 2002 they have won 1 division championship and that was in 2007. Both world championships they won in 2004 and 2007 they were down 3-0 to the Yankees and 3-1 to the Indians in the ALCS. Obviously they have had more than their share of luck in the postseason to win those 2 titles. I heard an interview once with Bobby Cox and they asked him if he was disappointed because the Braves won 14 Division Championships in a row and only won 1 World Series. He laughed and said the playoffs are a crap-shoot and for the fans. He said you measure a team by how many Division Championships they have won not how many times they got lucky and won the World Series. He made it seem like the postseason is just a fun tournament for the fans that doesn’t matter to him. Interesting perspective to say the least.
So looking back at the Red Sox under Theo. If they didn’t get extremely lucky and win those 2 World Championships… they would have zero World Championships and only 1 Division Title!
He is basically 1 for 7 and he has a huge payroll to play with to where he can sign basically any free agent he wants.
Is his heavily weighted statical analysis philosophy by the far way to go?
Is being able to draft good prospects more important than being able to analyze stats?
So maybe Dayton Moore isn’t as heavy on stats as some General Managers. But the bottom line is the Royals need a lot of rebuilding and that takes time. They have had good drafts the past 3 years and there is help coming along the way. So i guess we will see in a few years if his non-statistical philosophy can also work and compete with the GM’s out there who don’t know anything about baseball but know how to sit in front of a computer and look at numbers.
Only time will tell….
Take care guys.
One more thing. In 2008, the Mariners were pretty lousy, well out of the playoffs. In 2009, they’re much better (okay, maybe not; more likely the Angels have had a solid rotation’s worth of injuries and death, bringing them back to the rest of the division) but still, I’d expect a *player* who has been around on a losing team for a while to be jazzed by the environment and prospect of a pennant race. And now he’s on a team that is out of it. What kind of idiots expect the fresh start to improve his attitude? And worse, if he does return to a decent form, doesn’t that mean that if the Royals ever start winning he’s going to collapse again? He’s not a solution that fits in any concept of a winning Royals team. Sorry, Joe.
“scout” vs. “stats” is a convenient but misleading argument, i think. a good manager (in any endeavor) is likely to be (1) a shrewd evaluator of talent, (2) capable of critical and analytical thinking, (3) able to incorporate new ideas/data into their outlook, and (4) able to handle a budget. i suspect most MLB GM’s are good at two of these, but very few (the best) are adept at all four.
Betancourt is Cuban, which makes his age suspect, I would think. If he truly is a few years older than his stated 27, then his decline would be seemingly irreversible (at least more so than if he were still in his reasonably productive 20s).
Responding to #92: “Epstein took over in 2002 and clearly with his background he is not a “baseball guy” but a “stat guy”.
He’s actually both, and continually points out that the Red Sox evaluate through “two lenses,” both scouting and stats. Any GM with any sense should do the same thing. More information is better.
“Both world championships they won in 2004 and 2007 they were down 3-0 to the Yankees and 3-1 to the Indians in the ALCS. Obviously they have had more than their share of luck in the postseason to win those 2 titles.”
Not sure why it’s considered “lucky” to come from behind in a series and win it. But anyway, most teams who win do have their share of luck. (Example: The Yankees came from way back against the A’s in a few series in their championship years, and also got help from Jeffrey Maier. Their titles still count.)
In 2003, it took ridiculously dumb managing to keep the Red Sox from winning the pennant. In 2008, they forced a Game 7 of the ALCS against Tampa, and came close to winning that series too. Breaks are part of the game, sometimes they go your way, sometimes they don’t.
They’ve made the playoffs 5 times in Epstein’s 6 years, despite being in the same division as NY and now Tampa.
“So looking back at the Red Sox under Theo. If they didn’t get extremely lucky and win those 2 World Championships… they would have zero World Championships and only 1 Division Title!”
And 5 playoff appearances in 6 years!
If Grady Little wasn’t a moron, then they have 3 pennants and possibly 3 championships. If Josh Beckett wasn’t hurting in the ALCS, they could easily have 4. It goes both ways, and close doesn’t count either way. The Sox have won 2. They could have won more or less, but they have 2. That’s pretty damn good. More than anyone else has in that time.
“He is basically 1 for 7 and he has a huge payroll to play with to where he can sign basically any free agent he wants.”
Like Mark Teixieria? Epstein does have a huge payroll, and that’s a real advantage. But they still can’t sign everyone they want, the Yankees see to that.
“Is his heavily weighted statical analysis philosophy by the far way to go?
Is being able to draft good prospects more important than being able to analyze stats?”
The best way to go is to draft well and develop your young players, using both stats and scouting to evaluate them.
It’s also important to wisely evaluate players on other teams, so that when a guy like David Ortiz gets non-tendered, you realize that he has potential to be a pretty good hitter. Or when a guy like Guillen or Betancourt is available, you know it’s probably not worth the money or the players to acquire them. Scouting and stats both indicate that Betancourt is unlikely to be good with KC. They both could be wrong in the end, but scouts don’t like him either, they say his range has fallen off and he’s gotten slow and doesn’t always hustle. Maybe getting dumped will wake him up and he’ll lose weight and try harder, who knows?
The point is, the Red Sox under Epstein have drafted well. They’ve developed a lot of good young players. The player development system they have in place is probably the best thing Epstein has done in his time with the team. They developed Pedroia, Youkilis, Papelbon and Lester, with more potentially on the way.
It’s not just picking the right guys in the draft, it’s instructing them and helping them turn into major leaguers instead of just throwing them out there and hoping for the best. Epstein’s done great with that. Moore’s organization hasn’t shown any ability to do that, really. Other small market teams have, like the Twins, so it’s not just money, it takes knowledge and effort.
“So i guess we will see in a few years if his non-statistical philosophy can also work and compete with the GM’s out there who don’t know anything about baseball but know how to sit in front of a computer and look at numbers.”
What GM would that be? It sure isn’t Theo Epstein.
To #96. There is no doubt Epstein has done a good job with the Red Sox. They have been to the playoffs 5 out of 6 times and have 2 World Championships. So basically that means they have been lucky a couple times and unlucky a couple times. Go look up in the past how many teams have came back from a 3-0 and 3-1 deficit and won a 7 game series. The stats would indicate their chances would pretty slim and they did get VERY LUCKY.
Take away the postseason for just one minute and talk Division Championships. Like I said Epstein is 1-7 in winning those. Anybody with half a brain would realize that over 162 games whoever wins the division was clearly the best team that year in the division hands down. The skill advantage of a team is huge to finish 1st place after 162 baseball games. Any team can get lucky in the postseason and go on a run… Look at the Colorado Rockies.
You said it yourself. Epstein’s huge payroll is an advantage. Not sure where your Mark Teixeira example comes in even though you probably think you have a point there lol. They could have afforded to sign Mark Teixeira for the price the Yankees did. However if you look into the history of that case it was announced that he always wanted to go to the Yankees and his wife did not want to live in Boston. So I assume when the Red Sox were told he wants to be a Yankee they just gave up on signing him. It wasn’t because they couldn’t afford it.
Epstein has drafted some good players. However he took over the team in 2002 and has had a lot of time to do so. Moore took over the Royals in the summer of 2006. And you say he hasn’t shown the ability to pick the right guys in the draft? It really isn’t an overnight process and I think he deserves at least a 3 more years to see what kind of players come out of his farm system.
Okay, again, why is it considered to be just “luck” to come from behind and win a playoff series? And what difference does that make anyway? The Yankees came back from down 0-2 to the A’s a couple of times. So what? Their titles still count. Comebacks are part of the game, whether they happen in one game, in a pennant race or in a playoff series.
As for the “any team can go on a postseason run” business, you have to actually be in the postseason to go on a run like that. So the key seems to be to make the postseason, which Epstein has done almost every year. So what’s the problem? Is Dayton Moore on his way to making the postseason in a far easier division?
And the Texieria comment was a response to your statement that the Red Sox “can just sign any free agent that they want.” They obviously can’t do that, and Texieira is just one example that shows that they can’t, and that your claim was wrong, that’s all.
If Moore is on his way to developing young prospects, which prospects are in the pipeline? They obviously have no shortstop prospect ready in the minors, since they just traded a pitching prospect for Betancourt. Who is on the way in the minors that Moore is developing?
What has he actually done that is impressive after three years? What are some examples of his expertise as a GM, and signs that the team is on the right track?
He’s handed out real money to guys like Guillen and Farnsworth, and traded useful parts for other guys like Jacobs and Betancourt. Are these good moves?
And who are these GMs you talked about that don’t know anything about baseball other than how to look at a computer?
“Royals versus Stats” sounds like a sequel to that movie “Joe Versus The Volcano”.
[...] Joe Posnanski » Blog Archive » Stats vs. RoyalsIf you’re a Bengals fan, and they don’t share your views about hard-nosed defense… root for the Steelers, or any other defense-first team! If the Royals management continues their quest to build a team of the worst hitters possible, …… rotation’s worth of injuries and death, bringing them back to the rest of the division) but still, I’d expect a *player* who has been around on a losing team for a while to be jazzed by the environment and prospect of a pennant race. … [...]
[...] Joe Posnanski has done a brilliant job of deconstructing Betancourt’s lack of game. Take it away, Joe: The numbers I see suggest that Yuniesky Betancourt is a terrible defensive shortstop. Not a [...]
[...] single game (even if I only attend one). I just hate the way this team is run. Joe Posnanski once said “one of the more frustrating things about being a fan is when you root for a team that so [...]