Facebook Arguments
Posted: July 3rd, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 31 Comments »
Somehow, my Facebook page* has now become a playground for a baseball argument: Who was better as reliever, Mariano Rivera or Dennis Eckersley? I thought we could take the argument here …
*And the deal is still on … buy 09/09/09, become a friend!)
First, off, nobody seems to argue this point: If you take both relieving CAREERS, it’s really no contest.
Eckersley as reliever: 48-41, 2.85 ERA, 807 ip, 0.988 WHIP, 792 Ks, 126 walks, 390 saves, league hit .225/.259/.352, ERA+ 136.
Rivera as reliever: 66-48, 2.12 ERA, 1006 ip, .985 WHIP, 936 Ks, 227 walks, 502 saves, league hit .207/.259/.352, ERA+ 218.
That’s Rivera by knockout. Rivera’s consistent brilliance over a long career is not in dispute.
No, the Facebook comparison is different. Rivera spent almost his entire career as a reliever/closer (it interests me that Rivera was so bad in his 10 starts that his career ERA drops from 2.30 to 2.12 if you remove them), while Eckersley, of course, was almost exclusively a starter until he was 32 years old.
So the argument is simply peak: Eckersley had five other-worldly years, 1988-92, and then tacked on a bunch of saves late while being a little bit better than league average.
So the argument seems to be more about Eckersley’s five otherworldly years vs. Rivera’s peak — who was the BETTER closer when they were both at their very best?
Start with Eck’s five year numbers:
Eck from 1988-92: 24-9, 1.90 ERA, 359 ip, .792 WHIP (!), 378 Ks, 38 walks, 220 saves, 198 ERA+.
Well, that’s just amazing stuff. That WHIP is simply preposterous* — to allow roughly three base runners for every four innings pitched — ridiculous stuff.
*And it should give you an idea just how good Pedro was in 2000 when over 217 innings he punched up a .737 WHIP.
So, how do you compare those five years with Rivera? Well, of course, you could just take Rivera’s five best years and compare them. The thing is … that sells Rivera shot because he has been great pretty much EVERY year since 1996. His five best years are not significantly different from his NEXT FIVE best years.
Rivera last five years: 22-20, 2.00 ERA, 328 ip, .909 WHIP, 326 Ks, 50 walks, 166 saves, 220 ERA+.
Rivera from 1997 to 2001: 24-17, 2.19 ERA, 358 ip, 1.024 WHIP, 297 Ks, 92 walks, 210 saves, 210 ERA+.
Rivera from 2002-2006: 22-17, 1.83 ERA, 348 ip, .981 WHIP, 305 Ks, 70 walks, 198 saves, 241 ERA+.
Rivera’s best five, maybe (1999, 2003-2005, 2008): 26-16, 1.64 ERA, 367 ip, .904 WHIP, 338 Ks, 72 walks, 220 saves, 271 ERA+.
As you can see, Rivera’s ERA+ is higher that Eckersley’s pretty much no matter what five years you take — he pitched in a much higher run-scoring environment. But you can’t deny that amazing Eckersley WHIP — he just didn’t walk ANYBODY in those five years. As Brilliant Reader Craig pointed out, Eckersley’s 38 walks those five years included 12 intentional.
So, who wins? You decide — I’m trying to make the case for both sides. But I think one other point must be brought up here, a substantial point: The playoffs. Eckersley appeared in 20 playoff games from 1988 to ‘92 … he went 0-2 with a 2.38 ERA and 11 saves and a 1.01 WHIP. His most famous postseason moment — fairly or unfairly — is the home run he gave up to a gimpy Kirk Gibson.
Rivera has had some famously tough postseason moments too — the Alomar homer, the blown saves against Boston, the Game 7 against Arizona. But you already know that in the postseason over an entire career he is 8-1 with an 0.77 ERA and a .750 WHIP. He’s 4-0 with 10 saves and an 0.93 ERA in the ALCS. His only postseason loss was that Game 7 in Arizona — and it took an error (from Rivera) and two broken bat singles to make it happen. From 1995-1999 — that’s 31 games — he gave up two earned runs. He has allowed exactly one home run in 96 postseason innings pitched since the Alomar homer — and that was to Jay Payton with the Yankees ahead 6-2. He promptly struck out Kurt Abbott to finish off the Yankees victory.
* * *
Here are some other great five year reliever runs through the years — the key is five years. Eric Gagne had three amazing years. John Smoltz had four years as a closer. And so on. We’re talking five … five … five-dollar footlongs.*
*Oh man, now that stupid song is going to be in my head. The least you can do is suffer with me.
Hoyt Wilhelm (1964-68): 36-25, 1.74 ERA, 539 ip, 77 saves, 185 ERA+.
John Hiller (1972-76): 42-32, 2.16 ERA, 511 ip, 81 saves, 176 ERA+.
Goose Gossage (1977-81): 35-27, 1.91 ERA, 471 ip, 200 ERA+.
Dan Quisenberry (1982-85): 29-26, 2.31 ERA, 596 ip, 179 saves, 175 ERA+.
Bruce Sutter (1977-81): 29-32, 2.38 ERA, 492 ip, 148 saves, 170 ERA+.
Tom Henke (1989-93): 18-16, 2.30 ERA, 344 ip, 158 saves, 175 ERA+.
Bryan Harvey* (1989-93): 10-20, 2.44 ERA, 295 ip, 154 saves, 165 ERA+.
Trevor Hoffman (1996-2000): 25-21, 2.31 ERA, 382 ip, 215 saves, 175 ERA+.
Jonathan Papelbon (2005-present): 14-11, 1.83 ERA, 265 ip, 133 saves, 255 ERA+.
Joe Nathan, (2004-2008): 20-10, 1.83 ERA, 350 ip, 199 saves, 242 ERA+.
*A little UNC Charlotte love … or UNCC or North Carolina-Charlotte, or Charlotte, or whatever they’re calling my school these days.
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Joe, I think Rivera is the best closer ever, and in th category of guys for whom any writer who doesn’t vote him first ballot should lose their right to vote, but you’ve got him down as 4-0 in the World Series, which Luis Gonzalez might remind you, is incorrect.
I understand the need for some folks to argue who was/is better but for me it is but mental masturbation. They both have been AWESOME relievers, and that’s as far as the discussion needs to go.
One thing I will never completely understand about Eck – How did he ever let Kirk Gibson take him SO deep in ‘88 WS? That shot helped make Tommy Lasorda look like a genius too, something that I will never accept.
The only thing I can give Eck in this argument is that in his prime he LOOKED more unhittable.
That WHIP is amazing. It’s probably the reason why Eck averaged of 44 saves per year (‘88-’92), while Rivera averaged 41.5 per year (‘97-’05). And you can’t miss that 0.61 ERA in 1990. Do you know how many other pitchers have thrown for a sub-0.70 ERA for a season where they tosses at least 50 IP? That my friends, is a peak far greater than Rivera even if it is just one year….Rivera has never sniffed 1.00 ERA.
Now before anyone says “Eck’s home games were in a pitchers park!” …note that Eck’s road ERA in 1990 was 0.24 in 33 appearances (38 IP). That had nothin’ to do with the Coliseum. It was 1.03 in ‘89 on the road.
Rivera’s great but… com’on.
(I can’t help but wonder… if Eck was a closer earlier in his career, might he have had a longer peak and maybe even a higher peak?)
It’s difficult to compare anyone to Rivera, especially taking into account that it’s been 13 years now of this sheer dominance. If you’re looking for a flaw in him, though, it’s his reg. season and postseason performance against his team’s nemesis – the Red Sox. I wonder what Eckersley’s numbers were against his primary division rivals during his reign.
I gotta go with Rivera, simply because of the MJ factor. For a long time I absolutely hated Michael Jordan, basically because he didn’t play for my team, but I did learn to at the very least respect him. No player has ever had the iron-clad ability to absolutely own a game the way Jordan did. The Bulls would rest him leading up to the final few minutes of the game, and then when he came back in… it was over. And I knew it. Every single time. There was nothing to be done about it, no matter what gods I prayed to, MJ was just implacable. And the closest thing to MJ in my time watching baseball was Mariano Rivera in the late 90’s – early 2000’s. No matter how bad I hated the Yankees, once Rivera came into the game, it was OVER. Which, of course, is why I loved the ‘01 Series so much.
Joe – I’m disappointed in you – how could you entitle a post Facebook Arguments and omit… wait for it… Roy Face?!
1958-1962, 47-30, 2.84, 475IP, 99SV, ~144* ERA+
* B student in algebra, so this could be wrong
Favorite Mo moments:
3. The tipping of his cap to the Fenway crowd on Opening Day 2005, as referenced in Joe’s earlier post.
2. Not really a single moment, but I loved being at any Yanks-Sox game at Fenway and feeling that growing sense of near panic if the Yankees were ahead in the middle innings. It really was palpable. And the feeling was so familiar by 2004 that of course it added hugely to the shock of ALCS Game 4.
1. How could it be anything but Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS? The greatest game I’ve ever seen or will ever see. An epic 43-pitch three-inning shutdown in a pennant-deciding game, followed by the incredible image of Mo rushing the pitcher’s mound and throwing himself on it. I’m sure that moment seemed excessive to some but I just thought it was so pure. In Mo’s moment of greatest triumph, greater even then the WS clinchers, he reflexively chose to hug the mound itself. Nobody could make that up.
You know, I would not diminish Eck in any way. I would say that while I can see someone arguing that others were as great as Rivera, I can’t see the argument for any being greater.
Eck versus Rivera
Don’t know why we worry about all these stats with closers. The bottom line is did they save games or not. Joe, do you know which closer had more blown saves? I think that would be the telling stat?
[...] This post was Twitted by kansas_city_mo [...]
This may have already been mentioned and I do hate to nitpick but isn’t that 4 years for the Quiz?
Mo is great, Eck was great, Quis was great. Whenever this discussion gets started, everyone seems to give Trevor Hoffman short shrift.
Even SI had 4 other closers ranked ahead of him on their all-time list! I believe Rivera and Eck get mentioned so much because of postseason success, which is not a fair measuring stick.
Rivera has appeared in 74 postseason games, Hoffman 12.
Rivera’s teams have a .596 winning percentage over his career, Hoffman’s .477. If Hoffman pitched for the same Yankee teams as Rivera, I have no doubt he would be beyond 700+ saves by now.
Hoffman’s career WHIP is 1.046, Rivera 1.018, pretty much a wash.
K/9, Hoffman has a sizable edge 9.6 to 8.3
K/BB is close as well, 3.85 for TH, 3.94 for MR.
Rivera has never played for a sub-.500 team. Hoffman has pitched for 3 Padre clubs that didn’t reach .400! (6 winning seasons in 16 years!)
I watched him up close for many of those 16 Padre seasons, and rarely have I seen ANY pitcher make more batters look more foolish than Hoffman.
Props to Mariano for reaching 500, Props to Eck for his great career turnaround.
But DO NOT forget Trevor Hoffman.
“That WHIP is amazing. It’s probably the reason why Eck averaged of 44 saves per year (’88-’92), while Rivera averaged 41.5 per year (’97-’05).”
Or maybe he just had more save opps per year. Anyway, saving 41 per year for 9 years is more impressive then 44 for five years.
But, yeah, both guys were great. Rivera is second to none though.
I feel like it has to be Mariano because his prime is so much longer than Eck’s. Comparing a five year prime to a 12-13 year prime is just no contest. I know the question asked is five year versus five year, but this is Mariano, and as you said, you can’t really select a five year prime that’s head and shoulders above any other five year stretch. I bet you could draw any five years out of a hat and make a good comparison with Eck.
In the Facebook Era, I gotta go with Mo.
Eck’s 1990 is tough to top, though. 0.61 ERA, 3 unintentional walks and 73 strikeouts in 73 innings. 41 hits allowed.
Given the *huge* advantage in WHIP and superior strike out rate, why is Rivera’s ERA+ (which corrects for park, right?) so much better?
Are we talking about defense? Is there something about the park adjustments? Is pitching in a higher ERA era that much an advantage in ERA+?
Moreover, is ERA or ERA+ a meaningful measure for a closer? Isn’t that the question? ERA+ or WHIP, right?
Nothing to do with the argument. Just wanted to thank Andy The Beerman for “short shrift”.
Eck’s a great pitcher, but it’s clearly Mo to me.
Plus, I get the argument since Eck was a starter for awhile, but it seems pretty stupid to me to try to look at peaks when part of the reason why Mo is considered the best ever is that, as Joe correctly points out, you can take nearly any five year span of his entire career (minus the year as a starter) and it’s all dominant. I understand what is trying to be done by looking at “peak”, but all that tells you is that Eck had a great five years, not who the better pitcher was.
Alex H:
ERA+ is park-adjusted, but what it really adjusts for is the run-scoring environment. Teams score a lot more runs these days than they did back in Eck’s prime. Therefore, for Rivera to have a peak ERA only .1 runs higher than Eck’s peak ERA will result in a substantially higher ERA+
Mariano is the better closer because of his dignity, class, and post-season success. However, Eck’s 1990 season may just be the best ever by a reliever.
GOTTA GO TO MO’S!
First let me apologize Joe, I’ll keep my baseball debates on the blog from now on!
Career wise, there is no question…. Rivera gets the nod over Eck and is a no doubt hall of famer. His body of work as a closer is much larger. Eck didn’t become a closer until he was age 33. He was a sometimes great, sometimes good, sometimes bad starter. He had a no-hitter and a 20 win season. He also spent 10 years as a starter in the 2 worst pitchers parks in baseball in that era *(Fenway and Wrigley).
Take a look at his splits outside of those two parks he was pretty darn good, especially his WHIP.
I suspect many of your blog readers are too young to really remember how dominant Eck was and how mind blowing that Gibson homer was at the time and so that’s why the “prime” vote is so lopsided.
On one of my responses on Facebook, I expanded the span of time measured on Facebook from age 33(when Eck switched from starting to closing) to age 38 (6 seasons). I don’t think it’s fair to measure Eck beyond that because well… Rivera is 38 and hasn’t entered his decline phase yet, which is what age 39-43 was for Eck.
That takes us through 2008 for Rivera. So it basically measures the two at the same ages.
Eck had a WHIP of .855 over those 6 seasons. He walked 51 batters in 426.2 innings. That’s pretty impressive. Now think about this, 16 of those walks were intentional. He also struck out 458….
Over that same age range (6 seasons) Rivera had a WHIP of .9512 . Pretty awesome, but not as good as Eck. Rivera struck out 415 in 444.2 innings. Again, impressive but not as good as Eck.
It’s funny, I usually come down on the other side of the prime vs. longetivity argument(Tim Raines… 10 years of awesome, 12 years of being a fairly uninpressive part time player).
I’ll leave you with this thought on another player that switched roles/positions during his career.
Will Arod be remembered as the **greatest shortstop ever, the greatest 3rd baseman ever or none of the above because he switched positions during the middle of his career?
*Leave the steroids out of the debate, let’s pretend they aren’t part of the argument to keep us from going off subject.
I grew up an A’s fan and Eckersley is probably my favorite player of all time. I have to admit Rivera ranks higher because of the longevity, but nobody was more dominant than Eck over that five-year span. I second the opinion that the 1990 season might have been the greatest season by a reliever. My favorite stat from that year is Eck had more saves than baserunners allowed. Only Gagne has come remotely close to duplicating that feat. Other than Eck of course, who almost did it again the next year.
Correction … it was the year before that Eck almost had as many saves than baserunners: 33 saves, 36 baserunners in 1989.
Normally, I’m voting for the old timer. There is *always* a predominance of votes for the active player from guys who don’t bother to research the older players.
And if I think about some of the great players of today, I’m picking Eckersley over Rivera. Pujols. ARod. Manny. If I need to get those guys out, Eck may have been the best of all time.
The problem is, if I’m thinking about some lesser players, Furcal, Jacobs, or even of Eck’s day, Mike Davis, Kirk Gibson, Eckersley does not make my top 50 list of desired closers.
In a nutshell, Eckersley was on anybody’s short list of the best pitchers ever versus right handed hitters. And he was below average against left handed hitters. In Eckersley’s most famous moment, game one of the 1988 World Series, first the Dodgers pinch hit a guy whose career was all but over (ruined by a bad ankle injury playing on a terrible field in spring training, in Puerto Rico IIRC), Mike Davis. He had a “mighty” 54 OPS+ in 1988, but he drew a walk. They then pinch hit another guy whose career was sorely impacted by injuries, Kirk Gibson (before the knee injury in the NLCS, 7 seasons with an OPS+ of 110 or higher; afterwards, 1 season. Before, 5 seasons of 500 PA; afterwards, 0) who could barely walk. But he could manage a home run.
Eckersley was perhaps the best right handed specialist ever. Against LHB, not so much. I know his career stats include all those years as a starter, but an ERA+ of 76 versus LHB just isn’t good enough to persuade me.
And yes, Trevor Hoffman suffers badly from not playing in (or against) New York.
Wow. I knew I loved Joe Nathan, but that’s just incredible. 2004 isn’t just some arbitrary start point either, it’s when he came over from the Giants and began closing for the Twins. Once again: Thank you, A.J.
I think ERA+ is misleading in this case (not in all cases, but here it is). The closer you get to giving up no runs, the more ERA+ is distorted by the era that the ERA is put up in. In other words, had both pitchers given up 0 ER, Mariano’s ERA+ would be better, even though that is ridiculous.
Because there is a finite point where ERA cannot get better (0.00), ERA+ distorts as you reach that point.
Yes, ERA+ is not that great at comparing pitchers with very low ERAs for that reason.
Alex H (#16), the other factor in Rivera’s ERA+ advantage has been (until this year) Mo’s ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. During the five peak years (88-92) Eck gave up 5, 5, 2, 11 (in 1991) and 5 home runs. Here are Mo’s career HR totals as a reliever (96-2009): 1 (in 107.2 IP setting up Wetteland), 5, 3, 2, 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5 (in half of 2009). In other words, until this year he’s only given up more than 4 home runs twice in his relieving career.
Rivera’s stats have to be adjusted due to him being the first android to play in the major leagues.
I’m surprised that none of the other teams have purchased a MR-3000 pitching android. They have proven to be very efficient and durable, and virtually infallible.
Maybe they lost the instructions for building them or something.
Someone mentioned Marianos “struggles” against the sox in the postseason and I’d just like to point out that in 18 innings he has given up 2 earned runs against Boston in the postseason. I’d sign up for that every time.
The blown save in Game 5 of 04 was missleading, as he came in with 0 outs and inherited runner on 3rd and gave up a sac fly. The media really made it seem like Rivera got lit up in that series, but he pitched 7 innings and gave up 1 ER. Not bad!
Just wanted to point that out, carry on with the debate… althought I don’t think there is much of a debate. Eckersley may have had the best single season ever as a reliever but Mariano is the GOAT. Just ask Eck, he’s said so himself.