Frankie and Rany
Posted: June 8th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 38 Comments »
The following may come off as a mean rebuttal to Friend of Blog Rany’s suggestion that the Royals trade for Jeff Francoeur. Well, I hope not. I can tell you that while writing it, I honestly did not mean for it to come out mean — I very much like both Rany and Francoeur and wish each of them the best. But … yeah … it’s probably fair to say that I really, really despise this idea.
Usually when I read Friend of Blog Rany, I find myself nodding along. I recommend his blog for Royals and non-Royals fans alike (especially for Royals fans). However, several brilliant readers forwarded his latest thought on the Royals, where Rany suggests that, in these desperate times, the team should trade for Jeff Francoeur.
Well, he more than just suggests it … Rany says it:
I think the Royals should trade for Jeff Francoeur. … Jeff Francoeur is just 25 years old. It’s waaay too early to give up on him … Jeff Francoeur needs a new start, and Kansas City is just the place to give it to him. Working with Kevin Seitzer can’t hurt.
And so on. Before I begin the rant: I can see Rany’s larger point: Francoeur has been ripped so often and so hard the last year and a half or so that it’s easy to forget he’s only 25 and he has various talents and he could probably be gotten for cheap. I maybe could see that in the “if you look hard enough at a cloud you might see Cloris Leachman’s face” sort of way.
Then, he compares Francoeur to Jermaine Dye, and the whole thing falls apart for me.
Now, look, Rany knows what I’m about to write: He does not hide from the obvious fact that Francoeur has been terrible lately. But I’m not sure he quite gets to the point of just HOW terrible. I’m not sure he CAN say how terrible.
Let me give you a little thought experiment: Someone — no name — has been playing every day since the beginning of the 2008 season. Over that time — that’s 875 plate appearances — he has been hitting .244/.287/.355. That’s an OPS+ of 69, if you are scoring at home.
How bad is an OPS+ of 69?
–This bad: Tony Pena Jr., who may be the worst Major League hitter I have ever seen — a guy who in the last two years has been hitting .160 — had an OPS+ of 66 his only full season in the big leagues.
– This bad: In 2008, Jason Kendall slugged .324. … In 2007, Juan Uribe had a .284 on-base percentage. … In 2007, Juan Pierre hit zero home runs in 729 plate appearances … In 1995, Jeff Blauser hit .211 … In 1979 Rodney Scott slugged (SLUGGED) .294 … In 1989 Cory Snyder had a .251 on-base percentage …
What do all these have in common? Right: All of these players had an OPS+ better than 69.
–This bad: EIGHTY pitchers with at least 100 plate appearances in the big leagues have career OPS+ better than 69.
– This bad: There have been only four corner outfielders the last 50 years who have played a full year with an OPS+ of 69 or worse. Two of those four — Vince Coleman and Brian Hunter — at least led the league in stolen bases.
– Wait, one more bit of trivia, this time about that .355 slugging percentage — here is a partial list of players who have had better slugging percentages than our guy since the beginning of 2008: Denard Span, Jeff Keppinger, Juan Pierre (yes, Juan Pierre), Yuniesky Betancourt, Ryan Sweeney, John Buck, Erick Aybar, Lastings Milledge, Pedro Feliz, Chase Headley and Bill Hall.
Now, remember: You don’t know this guy’s name. He has an OPS+ of 69. His slugging percentage is lower than Juan Pierre’s. He’s also exceedingly slow — he has stolen two bases the last two years (been thrown out twice too), and the Bill James base-running numbers show him to be a minus-six base runner already this year. He does not play a premium defensive position. He has a reputation as a good defensive outfielder — even won a Gold Glove one year — but the Dewan rating system had him as the 30th best right fielder in baseball last year, and the UZR/150 — which ranks how many runs above average a player is over 150 games — shows him to be below average this year.
Now, I’m asking you: Would you TRADE for this guy? Forget the name, forget the Sports Illustrated cover, forget the fact that he’s a competitor (and I have no doubt that he is a competitor), forget all that. Would you trade for THIS GUY?
Or would you, I don’t know, wait until he gets released?*
*I’m thinking again about the Jake Johansen line regarding the problem with negotiating at yard sales. You say: “Look, you either pay my price now … or you’ll have to fish this out of the garbage later.”
This is sounding crueler than I mean for it to because, again, I really do like Jeff Francoeur. I would love for him to turn his career around. But I would love lots of things. I would love for chocolate to be the key ingredient on diets. I would love for the dent in the back of my car to fix itself. I would love for Brian Bannister to suddenly gain 10 mph on his fastball. I would love for the two-lane road to my In-Laws house to be cleared of all traffic when I’m making the drive.
Trouble is: Reality. And the reality is that if Jeff Francoeur was not Jeff Francoeur — the guy on the cover of SI, the likable baseball hero, the homegrown young star — he would have been sent to the minors quite a few plate appearances ago.
OK, to the next point: Rany’s comparison to Jermaine Dye doesn’t work at all for me. Yes, Dye began with the Braves, and he showed promise his rookie year like Francoeur and then was absolutely brutal his next two years. But … those seem like pretty surface comparisons to me. Dye was hurt those two in-between years. He only played a combined 135 games those two years. Dye’s first full year in the big leagues, he hit .294/.354/.526 with an OPS+ of 119. Francoeur has played three full years in the big leagues and has not come close to that. He has never slugged .450. He has only on-based better than .300 once.*
*That year, 2007, he had a .338 on-base percentage — right at league average — but it’s worth nothing that his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) was a sky-high .337 — at least fifty points higher than any of his other full seasons. In other words: He was either hitting the ball square that year, or he was getting lucky. Or both.
Dye’s second full year, incidentally, he hit .321/.390/.561. I just don’t see ANY comparison here.
Rany also makes a comparison between Francoeur and Jose Offerman and that doesn’t really work for me either. Yes, the year the Royals traded for Offerman he had worn out his welcome in Los Angeles, in large part because he was a terrible shortstop. But he had also put up a .389 on-base percentage and a 112 OPS+ his final year with the Dodgers. So you could see something.
He came to Kansas City and, sure, he had some value for lousy teams, he was kind of a pain in the neck, he had an excellent walk year and then he signed for big bucks with the Boston Red Sox. I don’t really see how Francoeur matches up there.
One more comparison: This time to Joe Carter … Rany called Carter one of the most overrated players of his lifetime. I see that point too, but I have to stand up for Joe: It’s true that Joe (like Francoeur) didn’t get on base. That was his major flaw, and it is a major flaw. Joe hit for some low averages and he didn’t walk. That .306 lifetime on-base percentage is way low, and there’s no hiding that.
But — and this comes from an OBP obsessive — Joe Carter was a very good baseball player. He hit for power — 30+ homers six times in his career. He stole bases and at a high clip — 231 bases at 78%. The RBI is a wildly overrated statistic, I think we all know that, but it’s not meaningless to drive in 100+ runs 10 times in a career. He was an excellent clubhouse guy by all accounts. He played every day. He hit one of the most famous home runs in World Series history. He played every position on the field except shortstop and catcher. He’s not a Hall of Famer, not close to that, but he was a damn good player who just didn’t/couldn’t walk enough.
That’s not the Jeff Francoeur story, or at least he shows no sign of that being his story. Sure, he’s 25, and he plays hard, and he plays every day, and everyone who knows him seems to respect and like him. He also doesn’t walk, and he has driven in 100 RBIs twice, so that’s like Joe Carter.
But he shows no home run power — he has 34 homers over his last 1450 at-bats. That’s one homer per 42.6 at-bats — Joe never once had a season where he came even close to hitting homers at that anemic pace (not counting his 51 at-bat first season) and Joe spent most of his career in a much tougher hitting environment. Francoeur can’t run. He’s not versatile. And his seven walks and .270 on-base percentage this year make Joe Carter look like James Taylor’s Walking Man.*
*Update: Francoeur walked twice tonight. So it’s nine walks now for the season.
At the end of the day, sure, I do get what Rany is saying — basically it’s, “Hey, the Royals suck anyway, they like Francoeur, why not take a flier on the guy. Maybe he’ll harness that talent.” And he goes into a scenario where this trade would include the Royals getting rid of Jose Guillen — a very, very unlikely scenario, as he admits, but it does sound tempting when you put it that way.
But I can think of three reasons why this would not be tempting at all (the Guillen thing ain’t happening):
1. They would no doubt overpay for Francoeur because the guy still has a name and because Royals management is totally in love with Francoeur.
2. Jeff Francoeur is not cheap — he’s making $3.4 million this year, which isn’t loose change for a Royals team that is already spending way more on payroll than ever before.
3. This hurts to say but players like Jeff Francoeur are the REASON the Royals suck at the moment, not the solution.
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It could be worse — the Royals could be in love with Nick Punto, whose OPS+ for 2009 is 40.
40.
This after putting up a 52 in 536 plate appearances in 2007.
Still want to argue that Gardy is a great manager? Grrrr….
(Admittedly, Punto did put up a 99 in 377 PAs last year…so he has that, I guess. And he is a versatile and decent fielder. But 40 and 52?!)
He’s still better than Delmon Young. Circle me Bert, or whatever.
Could someone please explain what the deal is with Bert and the Circle Jerks?
I liked the part of Rany’s proposal where Guillen is no longer on the team. If the trade went down like Rany’s most optimistic scenario, would you support it, Joe?
@Jim: It’s a Twins thing. Bert Blyleven on the FSN North Twins broadcast has a segment where he’ll circle people in the crowd who pander to him and ask via sign to be, well, circled. Somehow it’s found its way onto the comment threads here. Joe, for some reason, has an unusually high percentage of Twins fans among his readers. I like to think it’s because Twins fans are an unusually sophisticated and reasonable bunch.
Too bad the Royals didn’t hop in line in front of the Braves when they were discussing with the Pirates Nate McLouth’s availability. I’m afraid the Pirates would have taken three cheap, somewhat lesser talented prospects (or bags of crap) from nearly anyone. Accent on the cheap too. Otherwise, I am certain that the Braves would have tried to unload Francoeur on the Buccos. Thank God his name isn’t Matt Morris or the Pittsburghers probably would have done the deal!
I’d rather trade for Felix Pie.
I don’t think you should conflate this year’s Pirate’s front office with previous ones. It was not Huntington who signed Morris, nor is there evidence that the current management team is “cheap”. People made the same mistake about the Rays when the Sternberg group took over.
I initially thought the Pirates did not get enough in the McClouth deal but am not so certain any more. It may turn out badly for Pittsburgh, but I think reasonable arguments can be made that the Pirates did ok.
There was a rumor on SI that the Red Sox might deal Brad Penny for Francouer and all I could think was, “Not as long as Bill James is on the payroll.” I love the Red Sox and I love having the #1 baseball brain on the payroll but don’t you think there should be some hometown love that gets James and the Royals together and, assuming they would hire him because they would want to listen, that this would be a major step toward righting all that is wrong with their organization?
Isn’t trading for Francouer one of the signs that your clubhouse is infected with brain attack staph?
Here’s my biggest argument against Jeff Francoeur.
Let’s look at 2 players and there home/away splits at basically the same points in there careers.
Player A:
Home: .282/.334/.453
Away: .251/.283/.399
Player B:
Home: .311/.336/.460
Away: .243/.283/.345
While I’m pretty surprised at Player A’s splits, because Turner Field has always been a pitchers park (Francoeur).
I’m not surprised at all by Player B’s splits. If you’re wondering who this basically similar offensive player is well it’s a very beloved player in this town that the above mentioned Jermaine Dye was traded for… yep… Neifi F’ing Perez.
So Joe, obviously something needs to be done, what is the best trade for the Royals right now?
The best trade for the Royals is go back in time and not give up Carlos Beltran…
@ #7
Or Lastings Milledge
This whole artical is very shortsided (which isn’t a surprise from who the author was)
Frenchy makes sense if he is used in the correct context. You start him out as a platoon slowly. Build up his confidence just against left handers and once the confidence is back then hopefully by the time Guillen is gone you can have a very good replacement for him.
With the Royals lack of offensive talent you would think they would have more platoon type situations. A lot of talent could be made up if you just use the talent you have the correct way and put them in good situations
Basically, the Circle Me, Bert is done by those of us, like Joe, who believe Bert should be in the Hall of Fame. Joe has written a handful of very passionate arguments on behalf of his case for admission.
It is somewhat less stupid than just putting “First!” as the first comment. Not much less stupid, but somewhat, and irritates the hell out of people who love being irritated, so it seems to work well for everybody.
@#15 – So your argument is that Frenchy doesn’t walk because he lacks the confidence to walk…and always has?
I think what the Royals would have to give up for him (due to his name being Jeff Francouer) would be more than a reasonable sum just to find out if all of the evidence that this guy can’t get on base is somehow wrong and all he needs is a little confidence.
By the way, I read somewhere that in french “Francouer” translates to “maker of outs”.
Also, is Joe often shortsided? I hadn’t heard that before.
Being shortsided sounds painful.
Why don’t the Royals trade Bloomquist for Francoeur? Atlanta can use the million dollars they saved by cutting Glavine to pay for little Willie. If things broke the right way, it could turn out to be one of those ever-popular lose-lose trades that hurts both teams.
Hey is Hillman still a total idiot and fool for using Farnsworth and sticking with him in hopes that he would get himself turned around? He hasn’t given up a run since April 19, in 16 appearances, and hasn’t walked anyone since May 1, while whiffing 13.
Trading Guillen is just a red herring inserted by Rany to make the idea of frenchy more palatable. Unfortunately for Rany, taking a good idea (unloading Guillen) and slapping it onto a crappy idea (frenchy) doesn’t make the crappy idea any better.
And even if Rany is right, and frenchy is valued at less than he’s actually worth, it doesn’t change the fact that he’s a bad ballplayer.
I agree completely with your last sentence. It reminds me of the tail end of the Baird years when
a) The bullpen was supposedly a great talent reservoir and the strength of the team, and
b) The bullpen absolutely sucked.
For those who have blessedly forgotten, here’s the link:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/KCR/2006.shtml
It seems like the Royals’ roster is full of players who have topped out and are overextended in their current roles. I think it’s time to break up the lineup and sell it for parts. Teahen, DeJesus, Buck, Olivo, Aviles, Guillen — every one of these guys is more valuable as a spare part than as a starter.
If Rany has a fault, it’s that he falls in love with upside and doesn’t mind extended periods of sucking while he waits for it. It’s easy to see how rooting for the Royals can make you feel that way. They tend to promote the young guys too early, so that almost every Royals star has had a long period of disappointment first: Damon, Dye, Beltran (sophomore year), Sweeney, Greinke — all of those guys had lost seasons before they finally emerged. If Gordon ever emerges, it’ll be the same story.
What I really want from the Royals is a roster that’s full enough that you don’t have to put up with the long periods of failure before seeing some success. Moore has done a great job of doing that with the pitching staff; I just wish he had started on the position players earlier.
A part of Rany’s thesis here that I think has been largely ignored is that part (hopefully a large part) of Francouer’s problem has become mental. The pressure to perform has become such that he can’t relax and let the game come to him. Why the Braves haven’t sent him down I do not understand, unless they are determined to trade him and figure they can’t if they option him. Obviously, getting him for Jose is the ideal solution. Otherwise, you ask the Braves to pick up his salary, send him to AAA and if it works out, great.
Joe, can you forward this to Frank Wren?
This Braves fan just hopes someone, anyone will trade for the guy. The Royals, the Red Sox, the Norfolk Tides, the St. Paul Saints… Anyone!
God, please no Francoeur. I can’t take any more former Braves from Dayton Moore.
i want to thank Mike for his explanation of the “circle me Bert” fetish.
Now that we know it would be a good time to stop.
I love Rany’s passion in his writing. But passion frequently leads to errors in judgment (something I think we can all agree on). It is a common side effect for being a fan of the Royals, or Pirates (who do not seem to see that they came out well in the Braves deal), or the Astros, whose owner does not seem to recognize the smell of dead fish.
[...] The pFrenchturd is out of the lineup tonight………trade….trade….. Speakin’ of which: JoePos: Frankie and Rany I fully endorse the trade of Jeff Francoeur to anyone who wants him for anything they offer. [...]
Joe, can you please, please delete anyone who says first or circle me bert? I just hate it with the fiery passion of a thousand suns.
I say no on Francoeur. I understand the economics of baseball, but I’m sick of getting players that “waaay to early to give up on” or that “need a new start”. Kansas City is not the place for these people.
I’m tired of the John Bales, Mark Redmans, Jason LaRues, Jaun Gonzalezs, Brandon Duckworths, Hideo Nomos, Brett Tomkos, Kip Wells, Jose Guillens, Kyle Davies, Scott Elartons, Odalis Perezs, Elmer Dessens, Jose Limas, Eli Marreros, Terrence Longs, Benito Santiagos….
Did miss anybody from the Post-Fluke (2003) era?
Let’s be done wasting time with players that need new starts. If our coaches can’t translate our ‘talented prospects’ into consistent quality ballplayers (Aviles, Gordon, Pena, Shealy, Berroa) then they can’t take broken players from other teams and ‘fix’ them. It’s ridiculous.
And don’t get me wrong. I love my Royals. I was heartbroken watching it slip through their fingers again tonight. But we need reliable performers, no more hard luck cases please.
Jake Johannsen is unquestionably my favorite comedian. Not many people seem to know him, so I love that Poz quoted him. Yet another reason why this blog is great.
Shortsided. Very funny.
You ask me – Britney Francoeur needs a long stint in the minors.
But this is America where magazine covers means talent.
Who is this guy’s agent?
.244/.287/.355
or
.315/ .390 /.601
Evan Longoria, who is almost 24, will not make Jeff Spears Annual Salary for about 5 more years.
[...] 1:26 am | In Frenchy | No Comments Kansas City Star columnist Joe Posnanski does not want to see Frenchy in a Royals uniform: [Francoeur] has been playing every day since the beginning of the 2008 season. Over that time — [...]
I hope Dayton is dropping a few hints to the Glass family that there will be a need to open the purse strings this next off-season for some free agent singingS. That is if they are interested in preventing the streaks of weeks of bad baseball that we are suffering through now. We will need some impact players, and I mean multiple players. I think we have developed some complementary players (i.e. Teahen, DeJesus, Gordon, etc), but we need some studs.
Between Jeff Francoeur and Delmon Young, I’ve read a lot of ‘this guy needs to go to the minors and sort himself out’ talk of late. I realize this is traditional baseball thinking, but in the spirit of evidence-based baseball thinking:
Can anyone point me at examples of guys who have ’sucked’ for a full season or more, went to the minors, came back, and became consistent, star-caliber players (for, say, more than one season)? ‘Cause I can’t think of a one.
Yes!!! A Jake Johansen reference. That routine was hysterical…”once you’ve taken a hostage and started a fire, you’ve committed a serious marketing error.”
Anyways, the rest of the piece was good, too.
[...] I read Friend of Blog Rany , I find myself nodding along. I recommend his blog for Royals and n click for more var gaJsHost = (("https:" == document.location.protocol) ? "https://ssl." : [...]
#35 – Ron Gant sorted himself out in the minors, came back as an outfielder and had a solid career.