Hard Luck
Posted: May 29th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 51 Comments »
You probably know that Johan Santana is 7-2 this year … and he gave up zero earned runs in both of his losses. Zack Greinke’s remarkable season* includes an 8-1 record — and that one loss was 1-0 to Anaheim. Cliff Lee is 2-5 despite a 3.04 ERA — he has lost three quality starts and his last two no-decisions were also quality starts.
*Here are Zack Greinke’s stats after his first 10 games vs. some of the greatest pitching seasons in the last 50 years:
Greinke (2009): 8-1, 0.84 ERA, 75 ip, 81 Ks, 12 walks, 0 homers.
Santana (2006): 4-4, 3.42 ERA, 68 1/3 ip, 75 Ks, 14 walks, 8 homers.
Comment: Santana won the pitching Triple Crown that year; he was incredible second half.
Unit (2002): 8-1, 2.07 ERA, 74 ip, 95 Ks, 20 walks, 6 homers.
Pedro (2000): 8-2, 1.05 ERA, 77 1/3 ip, 104 Ks, 15 walks, 3 homers.
Pedro (1999): 9-1, 1.98 ERA, 72 2/3 ip, 108 Ks, 16 walks, 2 homers.
Maddux (1995): 5-1, 1.91 ERA, 75 1/3 ip, 58 Ks, 8 walks, 4 homers.
Maddux (1994): 7-2, 1.37 ERA, 79 ip, 64 Ks, 11 walks, 2 homers.
Clemens (1990): 7-2, 2.96 ERA, 73 ip, 61 Ks, 18 walks, 3 homers.
Gooden (1985): 6-3, 1.89 ERA, 76 1/3 ip, 75 Ks, 15 walks, 4 homers.
Fernando (1981): 9-1, 1.24 ERA, 87 ip, 77 Ks, 25 walks, 3 homers.
Fydrich (1976): 9-1, 1.87 ERA, 91 1/3 ip, 40 Ks, 21 walks, 5 homers.
Carlton (1972): 5-5, 2.46 ERA, 84 ip, 88 Ks, 21 walks, 5 homers*
Gibson (1968): 3-5(!), 1.52 ERA, 88 2/3 ip, 62 Ks, 21 walks, 4 homers.
Koufax (1966): 7-1, 1.84 ERA, 73 1/3 ip, 72 Ks, 16 walks, 3 homers.
**Interestingly enough — at least to me — the best pitcher in the early part of 1972 was not Carlton, who would go on to famously win 27 games for a terrible Phillies(BR) team, but Cincinnati’s Gary Nolan, who is a big part of some book that’s coming out 09/09/09. Nolan through 10 starts was 7-1 with a 2.34 ERA. Nolan through July was 13-2 with a 1.71 ERA. And he was pitching through excruciating pain — he would miss almost all the 1973 and ‘74 seasons.
Anyway, all of this it made me wonder: Who had the hardest luck season in baseball history (or, at least, since the end of Deadball)? Obviously there are about 50 different ways to go about trying to figure that, but here’s what I did: I looked only at dominant pitchers (ERA+ of 140 or better) and then I put together a formula that is fraught with mathematical atrocities … anyway, the point is not the formula. The point is the list:
Here, then, are my 10 hardest luck seasons since 1920:
1. Ben Sheets (2004): 12-14, 2.70 ERA, 264 Ks, 32 walks, 162 ERA+.
Comment: That 264-32 strikeout-to-walk still blows my mind … only Pedro in 2000 and Curt Schilling in 2002 had more strikeouts with 35 or fewer walks. Sheets’ won-loss record meant that he finished eighth in the Cy Young voting even though he was third in ERA, second in WHIP, second in strikeouts, second in complete games and first (by a long shot) in strikeout to walk.
Sheets lost nine quality starts. His Brewers scored two or fewer runs 11 times when he pitched — and they were shut out four times. He lost one game when he struck out 13, and two others when struck out 10. I think in many ways, that 2004 season saddled Sheets with the Bert Blyleven reputation — talented pitcher who cannot win games.
2. Nolan Ryan (1987): 8-16, 2.76 ERA, 270 Ks, 87 walks, 142 ERA+.
Comment: Ryan was 40 in 1987, and to be honest there was this sense that he was more or less done as a pitcher. Here’s an interesting question, I think: If Ryan had not pitched again after his 40-year season, would he have been elected to the Hall of Fame? Hard to say, but I don’t think so: His career record was 261-242. He did already have the strikeout record (4,547) and he had thrown four no-hitters. But his 3.13 ERA was not especially interesting, he had already walked about 500 more batters than anyone else in baseball history, and he seemed to be very much on the downward spiral (his last five ERA+ numbers entering 1987: 105, 114, 109, 91, 107).
Then he had that extreme hard-luck 1987 … though it should be noted he definitely brought some of that hard luck on himself: He did not complete a single game that year. Ryan did lose eight quality starts, but he did not go more than seven in any of his losses. He did have a couple of HARD no decisions — he threw eight innings of shutout ball against the Reds and didn’t get anything for it (the Reds won 3-0), and he threw 9 innings of one run ball against San Diego and didn’t get anything for that either (The Padres won 2-1 in extras).
Two years later, Ryan went to Texas, and his first three years there he went 41-25 with a 125 ERA+ and he added two more no-hitters to his resume and he pushed his strikeout total way above 5,000. He also won his 300th game. Ryan was elected first ballot Hall of Fame with a near-record 98.8% of the vote.
3. Jim Bunning (1960): 11-14, 2.79 ERA, 201 Ks, 75 walks, 143 ERA+.
Comment: You may know that in 1967, Bunning lost FIVE 1-0 games — one of those in the 11th inning. The guy was a hard luck pitcher much of his career. But his hard-luck masterpiece was 1960, when he was probably the best pitcher in the American League. He led the league in ERA+, strikeouts, strikeout-to-walk and was second in WHIP. He lost eight quality starts, and he lost three complete games. Among his no decisions: a 10-inning shutout against Washington, and eight-inning two hitter against the Yankees and a 10-inning, one run game against Cleveland.
Jim Bunning in his career had 29 losses where he pitched at least seven innings and gave up one or fewer earned runs(BR). That’s the most hard-luck losses, going back to 1954.*
*Here’s another Hall of Fame puzzle for you: Tommy John is tied for second on that hard-luck loss list with 22 — that’s 22 games he lost when he pitched seven innings or more, gave up one run or fewer. That’s meaningful because John finished just 12 games short of 300. I have little doubt that if he had won 300 games, he would be in the Hall of Fame right now … especially when you consider that he came from from the original Tommy John surgery.
And one more bit of Tommy John hard luck: John is fifth on the list with 28 no-decisions where he met those same requirements (7 ip, 1 or 0 runs). So that’s FIFTY GAMES he either lost or got no decision pitching extremely well. And he only needed 12 for of those for immortality.
4. Kevin Millwood (2005): 9-11, 2.86 ERA, 146 Ks, 52 walks, 146 ERA+.
Comment: Millwood led the American League in ERA in 2005 — he was the first pitcher since Joe Magrane in 1988 to lead a league in ERA and finish with a losing record. And Magrane pitched just barely qualified for the ERA title. Millwood lost eight quality starts, and he had five no-decisions on quality starts. He began the year with six innings of shutout ball against the White Sox and got a no-decision — the White Sox won the game late. That was more or less how his year would go.
5. Ismael Valdez (1997): 10-11, 2.65 ERA, 140 K, 47 walks, 146 ERA+.
Comment: Didn’t expect to see Valdez on the list. He lost three quality starts, but his big thing is he got no decisions on eight quality starts. Valdez did not help himself with his durability: He did not complete a game all year and did not go eight in any of his losses or no-decisions.
6. Bert Blyleven (1974): 17-17, 2.66 ERA, 249 Ks, 77 walks, 142 ERA+.
Comment: Blyleven’s 1972 was a hard luck year. That was the year he lost two 1-0 games, two more 2-1 games, and went 17-17 despite a 2.73 ERA and 287 innings pitched.
Blyleven’s 1973 was a hard luck year — one of the more famous hard luck years. That was the year he went 20-17 though he threw 25 complete games, nine shutouts, had a league leading 3.85 strikeout-to-walk and a league leading 158 ERA+.
Then he came back with, in some ways, with his hardest luck year of all. In 1974, Blyleven lost two 1-0 games (and in one of those the run he allowed was unearned). He lost three more 2-1 games. He lost eight quality starts in all, and in two of his three no decisions, he pitched nine innings.
There has been a lot of talk — a lot of talk — about Blyleven and the Hall of Fame and whether or not he was a hard-luck pitcher or one who lacked the competitive juice to win the close games. I’m not going to reopen that wound here, but I will say that in my view Blyleven was a legitimately great pitcher from 1972-74. Put it this way: In those three years, Blyleven lost 18 games where he allowed two runs or less. … It’s a different era, sure, but C.C. Sabathia has only lost 13 of those games in his whole career.
7. Jon Matlack (1974): 13-15, 2.41 ERA, 195 Ks, 76 walks, 149 ERA+.
Comment: Jon Matlack’s middle name is “Trumpbour.”
Matlack had a league leading seven shutouts, he also lost nine quality starts, though, of course, a quality start in 1974 was not really considered a quality start.
8. Bob Friend (1963): 17-16, 2.34 ERA, 144 Ks, 44 walks, 140 ERA+.
Comment: Ten of Friend’s 16 losses were quality starts. And he had five more no-decisions that were quality starts. Bob Friend, in his career, had a losing record (197-230) despite a 107 ERA+ — an ERA+ better than, among others, Jack Morris, Jamie Moyer and Catfish Hunter.
9. Dave Roberts (1971): 14-17, 2.10 ERA, 135 Ks, 61 walks, 157 ERA+.
Comment: One of the more famous hard-luck seasons in baseball history, he lost 12 quality starts and somehow lost two games when he did not give up an earned run.*
*For the record, someone named Joe Horlen holds the starter record (going back to ‘54) for most losses without giving up an earned run. Horlen was a good and occasionally outstanding pitcher, mostly for the Chicago White Sox (though he did win a World Series with the Oakland A’s in his last year, making him the only player to win a Pony League World Series, College World Series, and World Series World Series). In 1967, Horlen went 19-7 with a league-leading 2.06 ERA and league-leading six shutouts. Jim Lonborg, pitching for the Impossible Dream Red Sox, won the Cy Young, but Horlen probably pitched better that year.
In any case, Horlen had eight losses in his career where he allowed zero earned runs. Third on the list? Yeah: Tommy John.
10. Sam McDowell (1968): 15-14, 1.81 ERA, 283 Ks, 110 walks, 165 ERA+.
Comment: That was the year of the pitcher … and McDowell lost one game when he threw nine innings and didn’t give up an earned run, one game where he threw 11 innings and gave up one run and one game where he threw a complete game and allowed one run. He had a nine inning shutout no-decision, and an nine inning one-run game as a no decision.
To give you an idea, McDowell actually had a better ERA and ERA+ than Denny McLain, who won 30 that year.*
*Though it should be noted that McLain pitched 28 complete games that year. That would be 28.
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Circle me Johan
I rhought Horlen’s first name was Joel. Anyway, thank you for these very interesting and educational articles. i envy those who have the pleasure of your columns and reporting.
First time poster, Joe…huge fan of the blog and your articles. I really enjoyed this post – it’s nice to spotlight great seasons that people might not give a second thought to because the W-L doesn’t look all that great.
One nitpick – Carlton won 27 games for the ‘72 Phillies, not the Cardinals.
Fascinating stuff Joe, and all the more reason why wins should not keep pitchers like John and Blyleven out of the HOF. Your attention to detail and storytelling combined are unmatched.
Interesting to see the innings pitched in the first 10 starts, especially for the pre-1985 pitchers. Fydrich had over 90 innings, Fernando had 87, Gibson had 88 2/3, etc. Sure don’t see that anymore. Zack has 5 complete games and “only” 75 innings.
How about Dave Stieb’s 1985 season for the pennant-winning Blue Jays?
14-13, 2.48 ERA, 167 Ks, 96 BBs, 172 ERA+
The K/BB ratio isn’t great, but batters only managed a .610 OPS against him that year, and he had six tough losses where he gave up three runs or less and still lost the game. This for a team that won 99 games (and reliever Dennis Lamp went 11-0).
Great article as usual Joe!
And speaking of Ben Sheets, do you think there is any chance of the Royals signing him? I saw that he should be ready after the All-Star break. If we’re still in contention, why not? It would be like a trade deadline deal without giving up anything – except cash of course.
Rob Clark #6: The Blue Jays were a divisional winner in 1985, not “Pennant Winning” as you state.
Nitpicking seems to be on the agenda for today in my world…
I don’t even think Sheets had the hardest luck season of 2004…
Randy Johnson
16-14, 2.60 ERA, 290K’s, 44BB, 177 ERA+
Johnson lost just 8 quality starts, but had no-decisions in 4 others. The Dbacks scored 2 or fewer runs in an amazing 17 of his starts. He lost games striking out 14, 11, 11, and 10 batters. He had two no-decisions where he struck out at least 14 batters.
Seeing long-time Pirate hurler Bob Friend (He leads the Buccos in practically every career pitching stat) on this post reminds me of another thing about Mr. Friend that I’m willing to wager NO OTHER MAJOR LEAGUE PLAYER can claim… Friend’s middle name is “Bartmess” – No foolin’! I suppose he could have become a Simpson character had he hung around MLB another 25-30 years!
Check out Ryan’s post 40 numbers, and the time period they occurred in.
I don’t think Nolan Ryan can be excluded from the steroids conversation.
Randy Wells has had a hard luck start for the Cubs. He’s made four starts. Three have been quality starts; the fourth he allowed no runs but only went five innings. His ERA is 1.80. And he’s 0-2.
In his first start (at Milwaukee) he went five, allowing no runs, enough for the win as the Cubs led 1-0 after five and added a run in the top of the sixth. But the bullpen blew the game in the bottom of the eighth and the Cubs lost 3-2.
In his second start (vs. Houston) he went six, allowing no runs. The Cubs led 4-0 going into the top of the ninth, and Kevin Gregg allowed four runs without getting an out. The Cubs won the game 5-4 in the bottom of the ninth.
In his third start he allowed three runs in seven innings and the Cubs lost 3-1.
In his fourth start, last night, he allowed two runs in seven innings and the Cubs lost 2-1.
He’s pitched really well for a 26-year-old callup, and it may not continue all year, but the Cubs really need to get him a win. He’s clearly earned one.
Gibson’s “slow start” in 1968 seems so typical for the Year of the Pitcher. He got off to a 3-1 start and then lost the next four by scores of
L, 2-3
L, 0-1
L, 0-2
L, 1-3
The Cardinals would score a total of 12 runs in his 9 losses, including five losses by a 1-0 score. And in one of those, they didn’t even manage a single hit, either.
I guess Jim Bunning’s luck is evening out as he was elected to the Senate in 1998 with 50% of the vote & re-elected with 51%.
Thanks, Joe. I kind of expected Kevin Appier to make the list, and I wonder where he would fall if you did a similar “career list.”
To Courtenay at 32, Joe Horlen’s first name WAS Joel, but he remains the only Joel I’ve ever heard of who shortened it to just plain Joe.
By the way, I’m sure none of the guys on this list would be considered “winning ballplayers” by Steve Phillips.
That s/b Courtenay a #2, not 32.
Matt Cain doesn’t even have enough luck to be mentioned in this thread until now.
And Sam McDowell was second on his own pitching staff in those categories, behind the then-hard throwing Luis Tiant.
On an unrelated note concerning Joe’s question for the optimal time for a baseball game… Since “length of time” was not part of the question I was looking for the answer that said something like “On a beautiful summer evening, with a light breeze and when the beer is cold.”
“Jim Bunning in his career had 29 losses where he pitched at least seven innings and gave up one or fewer runs.”
Joe — Please explain how a pitcher (not his team) loses a game in which he gives up fewer runs than one. To phrase it another way, how does a pitcher get charged with a loss (not a no-decision) in a game where he pitched shutout ball for as long as he was on the mound?
Seems impossible to me.
Editor’s note: We’re talking earned runs.
Fergie Jenkins 1968:
Went 20-15 and was on losing end of 6 1-0 games completing 2 of them and going 10 innings in another.
As a lifelong Mets fan, I remember J. Trumpbour Matlack’s season very well (and if you watched him, he always kinda looked like a Trumpbour, too). After the year, Mets GM Bob Scheffing was quoted as saying that Matlack had a “horsefeathers” year — if you take out the 7 shutouts, the rest of his work wasn’t that good.
That might be kind of an interesting way to evaluate a pitcher: take out his best performances, and what’s left tells you how consistent he is… similar to Bill James’ stats for SPs in W, L, and ND
Nolan Ryan’s the one that stuck in my mind as a kid. I couldn’t wrap my mind around the fact that he went 8-16 and won the ERA title. I just thought that the Astros must have really sucked coming off their WS year.
I meant almost WS year.
Does the formula account for team record? Seems like there’s a difference between having hard luck and pitching for a team that just sucks. The Dave Stieb season mentioned in #6, now that’s hard luck. That’s close to unbelievable.
Jim Bunning once won a game 1-0 after pitching a complete game shutout and hitting a solo home run. Asked afterwards about teh feat (at least i assume this quote came after this game) he said “the only way to win ball games on this team is to pitch a shutout and hit a homerun.”
I’m guessing he would not be surprised to learn he is the all-time leader in hard-luck losses.
“Bob Friend, in his career, had a losing record (197-230)”
What pitcher in MLB history has the most career wins but a losing record? Is it Friend?
hershiser 89 had some rough ones.
i count 4 0-1 losses, a 1-2 loss.
15-15 record with 2.31 ERA. (0.05 worse than his ERA in 23-8 ‘88 season)
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There was an article in the New York Times, earlier this week I think, discussing Ryan’s work with the Rangers pitchers. One thing it focused on was his dislike of strict pitch counts. That was not surprising to me, since Ryan has the old-school West Texas rep and came of age in the 70s, when aces routinely approached and sometimes exceeded 300 innings in a season. But what I didn’t know was that Ryan hates pitch counts in part because he was on a strict pitch count in 1987, when he had the great ERA but the lousy won-lost record. Apparently he thinks that things would’ve been different if he hadn’t been yanked from games so early. The problems with that belief are obvious — if he left a game early while behind and got the loss, that means his team didn’t score enough runs after he left, and there’s no reason to think they would’ve done any better had he stayed in. Still, I just wanted to note that we shouldn’t blame Ryan for making his own hard luck in 1987 by failing to throw complete games.
They don’t post the gamelogs that far back, but in 1908, Ed Walsh posted a 1.27 ERA in 369 2/3 innings of work. He walked 61 and struck out 258. His record for this effort: 18-20. I suspect he had quite a few 1-0 losses (and given the fact that he gave up 90 runs, but only 52 of them were earned, gotta think he lost a few games where he gave up no earned runs)
Browngoat @#29: Jack Powell (a turn of the century pitcher for mostly the St. Louis Browns) was 245-254 in his career.
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One of may favorite years is Craig Swan in 1978. He led the league in ERA (2.43) started 28 games, 207 IP, and had a 9-6 record. The Mets just couldn’t score runs. He was always leaving either tied or ahead and the bullpen would either blow the game.
By the way Mark, even when you eliminate the 7 shutout wins, Matlack had a 3.22 ERA, which was 111 ERA+. He was 6-15 in those games.
Clemens’ 2005 season was pretty hard luck as well. His 13-8 record was probably a bit too good to get on this list. The Astros just refused to score runs for him that year. He had a 226 ERA+ and still couldn’t win the Cy Young, thanks to Chris Carpenter going 21-5.
I’ve never ever posted or responded to anyone’s blog before but I just couldn’t stop myself on this one.
Jim Abbott’s 1992 season:
7-15 W-L, 2.77 ERA, 211 IP, 144 ERA+, 130 K, 1.308 WHIP
His K’s and WHIP weren’t outstanding but come on, he only one hand. Being a die-hard Angels fan was hard that year. He had no run support and was one of the best pitchers that year.
Thanks Joe for your work.
I wondered where Ryan’s ‘87 season would rank on this list. It’s the worst record for an ERA title, ever.
Dan Purcell mentions this, but Ryan was on a VERY strict 110 pitch count limit for almost every game in ‘87 and he was always a player who threw a lot of pitches because of poor control. He had a career-best 3.10 K:BB ratio in 1987, and STILL had 3.7 BB/IP. Reading Throwing Heat, you sense his absolute frustration with his, and his relief about games like the one against SF in September where they let him throw 8 innings (2H, 2BB, 16SO, probably 135-145 pitches). I’d love to see performance by pitch count data for him for ‘86, to see if the Astros were really onto something.
For the record, Joe, he had 5 no-hitters-4 with the Angels, 1 with the Astros, in ‘81.
On Baseball Think Factory and now here Tommy John and Joel Horlen have been the subject of blogs detailing their hard luck while playing for the White Sox in the 1960s. This would be a great subject for a full blown article or series of articles. Just how bad was their run support? And for how long? And how did they manage to win more than 400 games in the majors, notwithstanding John’s years with the Dodgers and the Yankees?
After reading this the question that comes to mind is Why is Tommy John not in the Hall of Fame? The voters are apparently too hung up on the magic numbers and no longer look at the whole picture. Don Sutton is in because he hung around long enough to put up big numbers even though he was never a great pitcher. Yes he was good, very good some years and fairly consistent year to year. You look at John’s record and you see a great pitcher who is not in the hall.
I think Tommy John’s longevity may be what’s keeping him out. He played for 26 seasons, and I think a lot of voters feel that if you played 26 seasons, you’d darned well ought to have 300 wins. They don’t care that he lost so many close games or missed his prime years with his injury. They just see “only 288 wins in 26 seasons,” and choose not to vote for him. And Tommy John not being in the Hall is probably a detriment for Bert Blyleven, since John keeps Bert from being the winningest pitcher not in the Hall.
Anyways, you do bring up a good point about what would have happened if Nolan Ryan retired before getting 5,000 strikeouts and 300 wins. If he retired after his age 41 season in 1988, he may not have gotten into the Hall. He’d only be 273-253 with 4,775 strikeouts (500 ahead of Carlton) and a 3.15 ERA. He’d be eligible in 1994, and would probably have had to get in line behind Steve Carlton, Phil Niekro, and Don Sutton. And then the debates would really get interesting. Does he go in ahead of Bert Blyleven, who had fewer strikeouts (by 1,000) and fewer no-hitters (by four), but more wins and a higher winning pct.?
I’m sure he would have gotten in eventually, but it wouldn’t have been in his first year.
Joe,
First time post and love the site, but no 1978 Guidry? Did a quick scan from Baseball Almanac and the Gator was 7-0, 1.92, 76.2 IP, 1HR, (surprisingly only) 54Ks, 24BB.
I always think RG gets forgotten too often. Plus he threw a shutout against the Sox in September in the Bronx at my first game. so he’s got that going for him.
Further proof that pitcher wins are utterly fucking useless.
[i]I don’t even think Sheets had the hardest luck season of 2004…
Randy Johnson
16-14, 2.60 ERA, 290K’s, 44BB, 177 ERA+[/i]
Check out this run of five consecutive starts from Johnson in June/.July 1999:
9 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 ER
8 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 17 K, 2 ER
8 IP, 4 H, 4 BB, 12 K, 1 ER
7 IP, 3 H, 4 BB, 11 K, 1 ER
8 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K, 0 ER
TOTALS: 25 hits, 12 walks, and 63 strikeouts in 40 innings, with a 1.12 ERA.
W/L record: 0-4
As we watch Randy dragging his gawky body towards the 300 line, think he’d like some of those pitching lines back?
Free Fun Fact (non-hard luck division): In 2000, Pedro Martinez had a 2.44 ERA in his six losses, a figure which would have won the ERA title in either league.
Joe, you mentioned Koufax’s great start in ‘66 but you should have mentioned Marichal’s instead. Through his first 10 games that year, the Dominican Dandy’s line was:
9-0, 0.59 ERA, 92 IP, 51 H, 60 K, 8 BB, 3 HR.
Also 8 CG, 4 SHO (including a 14-inning shutout to beat the Phillies on 5/26/66).
Marichal’s 0.59 ERA is the lowest through 10 starts of anyone since the Deadball Era. Hoyt Wilhelm had an 0.83 ERA through 10 starts in 1959. Greinke this year is third, at 0.84 through 10 starts.
Browngoat- I know at least one guy with more wins than Bob Friend, but with a losing record. Bobo Newsom had 211 wins and 222 losses over his career.
Ah… Bobo and Bob Friend were both outdone by Jack Powell, an old-timer with the St. Louis Browns, who won 245 games but lost 254.
Pedro had a .343 BABIP in 99′ too!
Has there ever been a study done comparing runs allowed vs. earned runs? If they only kept track of over all runs, would we gain or lose any historically significant pitchers? I only ask because scorekeeping seems to be a joke.
[sarcasm] Hit a routine two-hopper to an infielder, he boots it, picks it up, drops it, picks it up and launches it over the first baseman and into the stands and maybe – MAYBE – he gets an error. [/sarcasm]
Are earned runs really distinct and relevant compared to runs in the modern game?
As a life-long Mets fan, I’ve seen my share of hard luck seasons by pitchers. That season that Craig Swan had in 78 (mentioned by James in post #35)featured 13 no-decisions. In seven of those he pitched at least 7 innings while giving up two runs or less. And, as disappointing as a 9-6 record sounds while pitching over 200 innings and leading the league in ERA it could have been worse: Swan’s record was a dismal 1 – 5 on the Fourth of July despite having a 2.66 ERA through that point in the season.
Nate
Put it this way, Kevin (#49):
If there were no distinction between runs and earned runs, Pedro’s RA would be 3.20 instead of the 2.91 ERA he has now. Maddux’s RA would be 3.56 instead of the 3.16 ERA he has now.
I’d say that’s a pretty significant difference.
And I wouldn’t necessarily agree that scorekeeping, at least at the major league level, is a joke. How many egregious hometown “gifts” do you really see every day? (At lower levels, of course, the quality varies greatly.)