In fact, I’ve noticed a bit of a pattern with him. When the bullpen blows a couple of his leads, he tends to pitch a complete game (or rack up a very high pitch count), win or loss, the next time out. With Halladay pitching *even better* the time after a complete game. Seriously. Look it up, he’s 12-1 in his next start after throwing 120+ pitches. This speaks volumes about his durability and longevity potential. One also needs to consider how he altered himself from a mid-power pitcher/groundballer to a full-out groundballer to more of a strikeout pitcher. When batters seem to figure him out, he re-invents himself.

I also think he’s on year two of a five or six year stretch of dominant, league best performance. If he takes on a Wynn/Johnson/Moyer trajectory after this of steady 100 ERA+ performances…

At the end of Age 32 season: 140 (9-1 currently)… If he wins 12 more… 152
Age 33 season: 19 more, 171
Age 34 season: 19 more, 190
Age 35 season: 19 more, 209
Age 36 season: 17 more, 226
Age 37 season: 16 more, 242
Age 38 season: 15 more, 257
Age 39 season: 14 more, 271
Age 40 season: 13 more, 284
Age 41 season: 12 more, 296
Age 42 season: 10 more, 306

If he peters off quickly:

At the end of Age 32 season: 140 (9-1 currently)… If he wins 10 more… 150
Age 33 season: 17 more, 167
Age 34 season: 17 more, 184
Age 35 season: 17 more, 201
Age 36 season: 15 more, 216
Age 37 season: 14 more, 230
Age 38 season: 12 more, 242
Age 39 season: 10 more, 252
Age 40 season: 10 more, 262
Age 41 season: 10 more, 272
Age 42 season: 10 more, 282

He ends up in the Blyleven category, well shy of 300, but if you consider his 2002-2004 and 2007-current stretches as arguably the game’s top pitcher (and without question, top three or four), it gets a little more interesting. He won’t have Bert’s K’s or GC/SO, however.

He’s someone that needs to win 300 to get an automatic Hall invite.

Now that I have that off my chest… CC’s advantage is (a) head start and (b) team. He could reel off seven or eight years of 18 wins or so and suddenly he’s 35 sitting at 250 wins knowing that if he keeps it together for five more years it’s not 300, but a shot at 350 or so before it’s over.

I buy the “he has to lose weight” argument, but he has the right situation. Jake Peavy, however, does not.

That’s James Francis “Pud” Galvin (with a “G”), not Pud Calvin (like Hobbes’ best friend).

Here are 2 ridiculous seasons to consider, courtesy of the greatest pitcher of my generation. (Note: I wrote this fast and just eyeballed a couple web pages, so apologies for any errors on my part.)

Season one: 1997, with Montreal. He goes 17-9 (not bad, but not setting the world on fire). Then it gets silly: 1.90 ERA (219 ERA+), leads the league with 13 complete games, throws four shutouts, strikes out 305 (11.4 per 9, and 4.6 for every walk), 0.932 WHIP. And if that’s not silly enough, he gives up 5.9 hits per 9 innings.

Season two: 2000, with the Sox. He goes 18-6…again, pretty darn good, but doesn’t justify what follows: 1.74 ERA (291 ERA+), another four shutouts, 291 K (11.8 per 9, 8.9 per walk, and he walked 1.3 per 9…what?!?!), and a positively stupid 0.737 WHIP. And since he’s sick of giving up so many hits per nine, that dropped to 5.3.

So those two years, he went 35-15, which is pretty fantastic.

But in 1997, he lost a game where he went 8 and gave up 2 runs. Another where he threw a complete game five-hitter and lost 2-1. Another where he went seven, gave up 2 runs and the Expos got shut out. Another where he gave up a single run in seven, Expos got shut out. And another where he went 8, gave up two earned, lost 3-1. Then you have no-decisions. He threw 3 games where he went at least 6, gave up 2 or less earned, and got nothin’ for his troubles. In 31 starts, he only had five games where he gave up 4 or more earned runs (and never gave up more than five) and he didn’t win any of those games. His ERA never rose above 1.92–ever. In 31 starts, he had exactly 5 games where he didn’t throw seven or more innings. He had one (!) game where he didn’t throw at least six.

Despite all that, the Expos only went 19-12 when he started. Because they weren’t all that good…they were 78-84 (59-76 when he didn’t start). So you could easily make a case that he deserved to win around 25 games, and he should have easily won 21 or 22. But that’s what you get for playing for a crap team.

In 2000, he started 29 games. He gave up six earned runs one time…and four earned runs another time. And other than that, he never gave up more than 3 (and in a ridiculous 13 starts–nearly half–he pitched at least 6 innings and gave up 0 or 1 earned run). His ERA in his nine losses? 2.44. He lost a 1-0 game and three 2-1 games. His ERA for the year never topped 1.78.

The Sox “only” went 85-77 that year (21-8 in games Pedro started, 64-69 in ones he didn’t). Pedro probably “should” have gone around 23-3 that year.

Seriously, so what if he “should” have won 10 more games? What does that matter in terms of how well he pitched? It doesn’t, which is why those were more than 2 Cy Young years; they are on the short list of the greatest years that any pitcher has ever had.

(Note that these two years don’t even take into account his most “unfair” year, 2003. He started 29 games, had a 2.22 ERA (210 ERA+)…and went 14-4. I counted 21 starts where he allowed two earned runs or less with at least 5 IP. And he finished third in the Cy Young that year, to Halladay (won 22, 3.25 ERA) and Loaiza (won 21, 2.90 ERA. Those two guys were great, and Halladay pitched 80 more innings, so I’m not saying Pedro got completely ripped off, but if he wins 20 let’s just say he gets more than 0 first-place Cy votes.)

Brad Radke did win 20 in 1997…with a 3.87 ERA. And David Wells won 20 in 2000…with a 4.11 ERA, and so did Tim Hudson, with a 4.14 ERA. “20 wins” is a magic number, but if anyone tries to argue that Radke or Wells or Hudson had better years than Pedro since they won 20, they’re a complete and utter idiot. And really, nobody would say that.

Likewise, there are a bunch of 300 game winners…but there’s only one Pedro.

(And it’s time for yet another silent prayer that Pedro never gets implicated with ‘roids.)

Glavine was 23 years old with a career record of 29-35 and a 4.23 ERA
Maddux (24) was 52-47, 3.81
Johnson (26) was 19-20, 4.12
Clemens (27) was 109-50, 2.96