Comments on: Hotter Than Hot

By: dja

dja — Tue, 26 May 2009 02:39:38 +0000

add in an 11th hr in 1 at bat on a day he was supposed to have off but pinch-hit in the bottom of the 9th.

11 hr in 81 at bats.

By: Lou W.

Lou W. — Mon, 25 May 2009 03:13:35 +0000

Not to jinx it, but JOE MAUER, 2009!!!

.438/.525/.875 with 10 HR in his first 22 games of the season!

By: Jon

Jon — Mon, 11 May 2009 21:00:08 +0000

I apologize if someone else covered this, but I figured I’d chime in. I’m a pretty smart guy, and I believe in all of the math that this fella did. I believe that in the long haul (10,000 seasons) that this guy’s math is correct. It is however, undeniably, lacking in that human element. A .300 hitter is essentially like a coin that invariably lands on heads 30% of the time. When that coin has landed on heads once per game for 55 games in a row, it feels no more pressure to land on heads than if it had done so only 2 games in a row. That pressure is just not quantifiable.

If we believe that a player can get down on himself, get too far into his own head, and have a really crappy string of games, then the opposite of that must also be true. Sometimes a player just sees the ball clearly. His muscles work smoothly, and it’s easier for him to hit the ball. Hot streaks absolutely exist, and to argue otherwise just doesn’t make any sense. You can make an argument that it all comes out in the wash, that a .300 hitter is a .300 hitter, and that’s true over the long haul, but for small sample sizes hot streaks absolutely exist. If baseball were purely random, then you or I could walk out there and hit just as well as the pros, and we all know that’s not true. As skill increases the odds of success increase, and there are absolutely waxings and wanings in the focus necessary to exercise that skill, and it’s these things that ABSOLUTELY lead to legitimate streaks in baseball.

By: BM

BM — Mon, 11 May 2009 13:57:29 +0000

Lance Berkman had a much “hotter” streak last season than in 2001. In one 21-gm stretch in May, Berkman hit .506/.591/.922 with 7 homers.

You can expand it out to a 27-gm stretch where he hit .475/.555/.871 with 9 homers and 22 RBI.

By: Graphite

Graphite — Sat, 09 May 2009 02:57:21 +0000

Many many years ago, back when women smiled at me out of interest rather than pity, I attended a party with a friend who had a reputation as a fearless horse bettor. During the evening a loudmouth called him out along the lines “So you reckon you’re a gambler. I’ll toss you for a hundred bucks. You up for it.”
“I like a bet,” my friend told him, “but I’m not interested thanks.”
“Too scared, eh,” from the loudmouth.
“What I’ll do,” my friend offered, “is toss you for one dollar. If you win I’ll toss you for another dollar. If you win that as well, I’ll toss you for a dollar again. Then, if you win that third toss, I’ll toss you for the hundred. Five hundred if you like. You interested in that?”
Needless to say, the loudmouth sat down and shut up.

By: Tom in St. Paul

Tom in St. Paul — Sat, 09 May 2009 01:45:44 +0000

I believe the best way to detect if the unit we are try to measure is random or not is to control chart it over time. If the points are within the upper and lower control limits established by the variation within the measurements we should be able to access if the behavior is random or if some other factor is the major cause of the result (ie level of confidence, level of health, is the girlfriend nagging them or not, …). I would like to see the hits per game averaged in weekly buckets for George Brett in 1980 to perform the analysis on. His performance that year is the definition of a hot streak if such a thing is possible. Average hits per game is probably not the best unit to measure, but it should provide some indication if a hot streak is possible.

By: Twitted by youareheas

Twitted by youareheas — Fri, 08 May 2009 23:31:26 +0000

[...] This post was Twitted by youareheas – Real-url.org [...]

By: Paul F.

Paul F. — Fri, 08 May 2009 21:51:02 +0000

Just to back up some of my fellow math-heads out there. I also agree that athletes don’t get “hot” or “cold” in some bizarre, mystical, psycho-spiritual way. Sure, they have streaks, but mathematically those streaks are accounted for by randomness.

Obviously there are dozens upon dozens of factors that contribute to the success or failure of a hitter in any given at bat, and if we could quantify every single one of those, we might be able to tell what the effect of “feeling it” is, but the reality is that there is no evidence suggesting that being “in the zone” actually changes the results of a given at bat. Basically, the argument for “being hot” is the same as the argument for being a clutch hitter: it states that for some reason players actual talent level changes based upon a game situation (i.e. whether there are runners on base, or whether they got a hit in a previous at bat). I don’t buy it, myself.

Player talent levels can change, of course, but it requires sustained effort and practice, and ability is unlikely to fluctuate much over the course of a season – let alone a game. The reason great players in their sports like Albert Pujols or Tiger Woods or LeBron James seem to be “hot” so often, and deliver well in the clutch is because they’re just that good anyway. For every miracle finish or impossible hot streaks, there are plenty of cases when LeBron misses 8 three pointers in a row, or tournaments where Tiger finishes 6th, or days when Albert goes 0 for 5 and leaves 6 guys on base. Those things may be rare, because the talent level of those elite players is so high, but it does happen both ways.

I would guess, though, if you look it up, that no one has missed more last second shots than Michael Jordan…

By: Bobby

Bobby — Fri, 08 May 2009 21:39:33 +0000

I find it odd that, of the top 10 hitters by average in baseball history, only 4 are also in the top 50 with regard to consecutive game hitting streaks. Joe Jackson, Lefty O’Doul, Ted Williams, Billy Hamilton, Dan Brouthers, and Babe Ruth do not make the list (all above .340 career).

Also, when you look at the top ten, 1941 to current, streakers, only Dimaggio, Paul Molitor, and Tommy Holmes hit above .310 for the season, and only Dimaggio, Molitor, Rose, Holmes, and Hal Morris were/are career .300 hitters. Benito freaking Santiago is in that top 10.

By: jay22

jay22 — Fri, 08 May 2009 21:39:27 +0000

It doesnt seem accurate to say that there is no statistical evidence of ’someone getting hot’. You are showing statistical evidence that what happened last at-bat (or the last 30 at-bats) does not impact the next at-bat. If the fastball just seemed to hang like a grapefruit the last 10 at-bats, that doesn’t mean it wont hang like a grapefruit for the next 10 at-bats or even for just the next at-bat….but it is completely different to state that the ball never hung there like a grapefruit, it was all just stastical variation.

In other words, that we can’t predict someone getting/staying hot doesn’t mean people dont actually get hot.

There are times when hitting the ball hard just seems easier than other times. A .330 hitter will have these times more often than a .220 hitter….and when the hot streak shows up and when it ends will all be random statistical variation, but it’s silly for anyone to say that it isnt there.