Tip Sheet
Posted: May 2nd, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 46 Comments »
OK, coming off the latest talk of pitch tipping and Alex Rodriguez, we’re going to talk a little bit about cheating today — but, hey, we’re not talking morality. Everyone has their own level of distaste for cheating and lying. Some think it’s wrong all the time. Some think it’s mostly wrong except in certain sporting situations. Some believe the old line that if you’re not cheating you’re not trying. I don’t want to get into that today, though I do find the topic to be fascinating.
No, today’s discussion of cheating is why it bothers so many of us as fans. And I think the big reason is that it simply makes everything we see suspect. There has been so much discussion about Barry Bonds’ 73 home run season … how much of that was real? Some would say that none of it was real, that it was the drugs talking. Some would say that all of it was real, that drugs play a virtually insignificant role in home runs. A few who love Bonds would say he was clean. And most, I suspect, would say that it was only partly real, and that’s the calamity of it all: That season is fog.
And we don’t want fog in our sports … or anyway that’s how I feel. The thing that draws so many of us to sports is the clarity of it all. Spectator sports are not like Congress or pool hustling where you know, deep down, that the real action and real money is exchanging hands behind closed doors. No, it’s all supposed to be out there for us, and that’s why we love it.
That’s why the Alex Rodriguez pitch-tipping charge is troubling. I’m not here to say it’s true or isn’t true … I have absolutely no idea, and I haven’t even read Selena Roberts’ book yet to know what the exact charge is. But it’s out there that A-Rod, in blowout games while he was a shortstop in Texas, was tipping pitches to fellow middle infielders in some sort of bizarre quid pro quo to help everyone get some late inning batting average happiness.
True or untrue, that’s precisely the sort of thing that fogs up the game. What’s real? What’s make believe? As soon as I heard the charges, I immediately wanted some clarity, something I could look at and understand. And for that, I went to the numbers. What follows doesn’t prove anything and more to the point it is not TO prove anything … except the main point of all this. Which is that charges like this make everything suspicious and dubious.
I began with this: A-Rod was Texas’ shortstop from 2001 to 2003. And it’s worth nothing that all three of this years a middle infielder in the American League West could have or did win the MVP award.
In 2001, Ichiro won it. But Seattle second baseman Bret Boone hit .331/.372/.578 with 37 homers, 141 RBIs, 118 runs.
In 2002, Oakland shortstop Miguel Tejada hit .308/.354/.508 with 34 homers, 131 RBIs and won the MVP. That year, A-Rod hit 57 homers and finished second.
In 2003, A-Rod won the MVP. He hit 47 homers, 118 RBIs, slugged .600, and so on. Tejada and Boone both had big years too.
I bring this up because of this: For the scheme to be true and for it to work — and the idea was that A-Rod would use some basic signals to let the batter on the other team know what pitch was coming and roughly which way it was coming — I figure it would mostly have to be against players in the American League West. That just seems logical to me: Those are the players the Rangers played most, the players that A-Rod figured to be most comfortable with, the players who would offer the biggest payback.
So, I focused my look at the other middle infielders in the American League West. I’m only including the ones who were regulars … the others would not figure to be involved in a pitch-tipping situation.
These were:
Oakland
Shortstop: Miguel Tejada
Second base: Frank Menechino (2001), Mark Ellis (2003)
California Angels
Shortstop: David Eckstein (some second too)
Second base: Adam Kennedy (2002 and 2003)
Seattle
Shortstop: Carlos Guillen
Second base: Bret Boone
Now, before showing off a few numbers, I want to reiterate that, I believe, it would be almost impossible to the find the answer in numbers. For one thing, Texas’ pitching sucked from 2001 to 2003. Two, the Ballpark at Arlington is a bandbox. Three, a hitter who knows what pitch is coming would not hit 1.000 or anything close to that. I have absolutely no idea how much better you can expect a hitter to be if he knows the pitch and the location … fifty points of batting average? One hundred points of slugging? More? Less? No idea. So I would not have any idea what kind of numbers we should be looking for anyway … especially because the charge is that A-Rod tipped pitches ONLY IN BLOWOUT SITUATIONS.
Still, I think the following number is pretty striking.
American League West middle infielders facing the Texas Rangers from 2001 to 2003: Hit .309/.375/.558. They banged 44 homers and drove in 184 RBIs in 281 games.
And the two real middle infield stars — Miguel Tejada and Bret Boone? Tejada hit .347/.406/.613 in 57 games against Texas. He hit 17 home runs.
Bret Boone hit .315/.386/.570 in 58 games against Texas. He hit 14 home runs.
There are other pretty good numbers. Mark Ellis and Frank Menechino in their full seasons hit .300 with some power against the Rangers. In 2003, David Eckstein hit .249 against everyone else, but .311 against the Rangers. Carlos Guillen hit lousy against the Rangers in 2001, but in 2002 and 2002 he hit .319 and .351. But this is what I mean when I say that there is really too much statistical noise to get at much here. I would find it very hard to believe that A-Rod would have worked out a deal with David Eckstein or Frank Menechino. I can’t believe there would be much percentage in that.
So, we’re really just talking here. But those numbers for Boone and Tejada, just as examples, would not PRECLUDE us from believing that there was something going on. Take Tejada. He was a great player those three years … but those numbers are off the chart. I mean, 17 homers in 57 games … yikes. But when did those homers come? Were any in the blowout games we are talking about here?
June 30, 2001: Hit three homers in 15-4 victory. One of those homers came in the 9th with Rangers up 14-4.
June 26, 2003: Hit homer in 13-0 victory. Fourth inning, A’s winning 6-0.
June 19, 2003: Hit homer in 9-2 victory. Homer was early when game was scoreless. Tejada went 5 for 5, but he did not come up in a situation where the score was out of hand.
April 19, 2003: Hit homer in 12-2 victory. But it was only 4-1 when he hit it.
April 9, 2003: Hit homer in 13-5 victory. Hit homer in fifth, A’s up 6-1. He later singled with A’s up 8-4, and he was hit by a pitch in 8th.
July 28, 2002: Hit homer in 12-2 victory. Hit homer in eighth with game close. He did double with bases loaded with game already getting out of hand in the ninth.
July 19, 2002: Hit homer in 10-0 victory. Hit homer in sixth with A’s up 9-0.
Sept. 19, 2001: Hit homer in 10-4 loss. Hit homer in fourth with A’s down 6-0.
So, that’s pretty interesting. Inconclusive. But interesting.
Of course, if this was really a quid pro quo, then you would think A-Rod would be equally good or better in those three years against the American League West. The idea is that he would tip off middle infielders with the game out of reach and, in return, they would tip him off with the game out of reach.
And I don’t think the numbers indicate that at all. A-Rod, after all, is good against everyone. He did hit .310/.410/.644 with 61 homers in 173 games against American League West opponents. But that’s just not very different from his overall numbers of .305/.395/.615.
The thing about A-Rod is that he became known in Texas for being a master of the home run when the game was out of reach — local reporters there talked about that all the time. I never really put any stock in that sort of talk; that’s precisely the sort of silly thing reporters say when they don’t like a player.*
*I heard several people say that in Kansas City about Mike Sweeney, for instance. They said: “He only hits homers when it doesn’t matter.” This was entirely wrong — Sweeney had a good record for hitting with runners in scoring position and he was the same kind of hitter, more or less, in all situations. Anyway, I would simply respond: “When did it MATTER for the Royals when Mike Sweeney was playing?”
Still, the reputation for A-Rod was very much in place. Was it true?
Well, actually, no. During A-Rod’s time in Texas, he hit .289/.383/.496 when the margin of the game was four runs or more. That’s not very good for A-Rod, and in fact he hit MUCH better in those situations in New York (.313/.410/.607) when he was a third baseman and, presumably, would not have been able to tip pitches even he wanted to do it.
More specifically, you could look at A-Rod in blowout games against those American League West teams, where you would his advantage to come. In blowout games against California, Oakland and Seattle — and I call blowout games five runs or more — A-Rod hit .330/.469/.615.
In non blowout games he hit .291/.449/.639. So, again, that’s pretty close. He actually slugged better in closer games than he did in blowouts.
The takeaway: Not much. I do believe a full-scale study of the stats could probably give you a pretty decent idea if there was any sort of trend here. I only know this: If A-Rod was really betraying his pitchers by tipping pitches then he’s taken A-Fraud to another level. If he was not, then this is a smear job by some unnamed sources who are lower than low. And for the rest of us, the game just got a little foggier.
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And of course, if it was quid-pro-quo, then the other infielders would be just as guilty as A-Rod.
Too bad ARod is going to be around another decade or so and baseball tries to move away from what he represents.
I have no idea if he did tip pitches (although I’ll believe Roberts over ARod every day of the week) or if it helped the other players. But you’re right, it smells bad and it’s something baseball didn’t need.
I’m so sick of ARod. Even if he never tipped pitches and his story about steroids is true, I wish the guy would just go away. Baseball would be just fine without him. I have a lot more respect for Bonds than ARod. At least Bonds didn’t care what everybody though of him.
If this turns out to be true this is a bigger scandal than steroids in my opinion.
Remember though, in blow outs (five runs or more) pitchers tend to pound the zone with fastballs to get ahead of hitters and just force them to put the ball in play because they have a nice cushioned lead. This would obviously affect opposing hitters’ stats in a positive way, too. I don’t expect you to do this, but it’d be interesting to see ALL the MLB stats in blowouts and compare that to the middle infielders in the West during A-Rod’s stint in Texas.
I don’t know how many nor do I know who exactly, but hitting better late in blowouts doesn’t just happen with A-Rod. A lot of hitters get meaningless hits late in games because they see better (even if just slightly better) pitches. I know Adam Dunn was given crap for late, solo home runs in Cinci. These better hitters are obviously going to capitalize more often on these better pitches late in blowouts.
The 2002 Rangers had such a terrible bullpen (Hideki Irabu was their “closer”) that they even employed John Rocker for a time. What if it came out that A-Rod was only tipping pitches when Rocker was in the game? Wouldn’t that make this whole controversy much more positive?
Also, I thought the running thesis statement on A-Rod is that he’s a self-absorbed egomaniac with no friends. If he tipped pitches, shouldn’t he have some pretty good buddies in the game?
This story is largely a waste of time, ink and pixels.
1) There’s a rich history of tipping pitches in baseball, even to opposing players. ARod did not invent it. He should not be any more condemned than anyone else who has done it. Of course, it might not actually be true.
2) Shouldn’t every player hit better in blowouts? Neither team would have their best pitchers in, at that point.
3) Has any opposing player said that he was tipped by ARod? If not, what are we talking about? I heard it from someone who told me that he heard it from…oh, please!
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More importantly, I don’t think that we like sports because it is clear, cut and dried. I think that we like sports because it gives us something to argue about.
other things to consider about the late-inning performance increases in blowouts:
1. the winning teams generally do not send their premium bullpen arms to pitch in those games.
2. the starter may get left in the game longer than their effectiveness dictates.
3. there is more pitching to contact in order to expedite the game.
there are many other factors that would/could explain the performance bump in place of pitch tipping.
Secondly, the only way Roberts could reliably and factually state that A-Rod was tipping pitches is if she had an on-record statement from one of his accomplices. My question is, what player would EVER admit to such conduct, let alone participate in it? A confirmed guilty offense would be the equivalent of career suicide; NO team would ever sign that player knowing they had participated in that kind of cheating. The Locker Room politics alone would be cancerous.
Joe: I think that, if true, this is a far more insidious scandal than steroids could ever be.
The elaborate planning and collusion required to even make it slightly feasible is shocking. The implication is that multiple players on multiple teams participated.
Reading the SI article in question, his teammates knew about it and even said something like “you’re tipping a little early.” WAIT HOLD UP WHAT DID YOU JUST SAY? “A LITTLE EARLY?!?!!” So it’s ok later in the game?!
I told my friends and dad the day I read the story that it was like getting punched in the stomach. One grows up holding these lofty ideals about capital-B Baseball and imagines the greatness of all these amazing players and the further I get from my childhood, the bigger a sham it all seems.
These guys aren’t heroes, the major league sport isn’t “pure” and everything we have to pay to see should be acknowledged as entertainment first, and legitimate competition a far distant second. It’s a perfect microcosm of our culture: nothing you see is real, but it doesn’t matter. It’s just entertainment.
I can’t help but think of A-Rod being carted around in a straight-jacket with a Hannibal Lecter mask.
“Quid Pro Quo, Menechino. Quid Pro Quo.”
“Reading the SI article in question, his teammates knew about it and even said something like “you’re tipping a little early.†WAIT HOLD UP WHAT DID YOU JUST SAY? “A LITTLE EARLY?!?!!†So it’s ok later in the game?!”
Just to clarify, what was meant by that is that it’s the middle infielders’ duty to signal the pitch coming to the other fielders, so that they have a general idea where the ball should be going, and they general don’t signal till the windup, so that the hitter won’t notice, ’cause he’s too busy focusing on the ball. A-Rod, allegedly, started giving the signals before the windup, so the hitter could see it, i.e., he was doing it a little early.
I wonder if the Yankees heard about this rumour (or knew he was doing it) back when they wanted to get A-Rod, and this played into why they moved him to 3rd base instead of Jeter? Hmmm. Something to think about.
Good numbers Joe. Makes me think.
I have never understood complaints about whether e.g. Bonds’ home runs were “real”. One can obviously be very upset about Bonds’ conduct, but until MLB cancels the home runs, redistributes the wins, takes away the Giant’s pennant, etc. they are as “real” as any other home runs.
Is this a serious post or a joke? You want “clarity” in a sport where hall of famers started abusing PEDs 50 years ago, and the advent of weight training and smaller ballparks has made historic records meaningless.
Clearly there it is extremely unlikely that the pitch tipping happened. First, think how difficult it would be for A-Rod to put this conspiracy in place, and how difficult it would be to keep it secret. This isn’t one buddy grooving a fastball to another buddy at the end of the season. This is stuff that can get you suspended or banned from baseball.
Next, you have to consider the source. Selena Roberts has a history building stories around falsehoods fed her by anonymous sources with an axe to grind. That’s exactly what happened in the Duke Rape case, where her column served as a pipeline for public leaks from a prosecutor who has not only lost his job and license, but been jailed because his behavior was so egregious. And as we know, many of those leaked ‘facts’ were lies or deliberate mis-statements. Selena clearly doesn’t care whether any of her A-Rod allegations are true, she only cares that she can get one anonymous source to say something shocking to ensure her book will sell even more copies.
Ah, gotta love objective analysis. I wonder if it’s too late to make “the sort of silly thing reporters say when they don’t like a player” a jacket blurb?
On a similar subject to cheating, I have always been fascinated with baseball’s unwritten rules about what is smart, tough, heads-up baseball, and what is worthly of getting a fastball in your ear.
The leadoff man or on-deck hitter timing pitches is a no-no, but the hidden-ball trick by an infielder is smart, or dare I say, even gritty.
It’s OK, and even wise, for a hitter to check the placement of the fielders, perhaps lay down a bunt if the 3rd baseman is playing too deep, but to look back and see where the catcher is positioned is unacceptable.
Hitter’s calling time and stepping out of the box too late incur the wrath of the pitcher and get plunked at times, but pitchers can step off any time without issue.
“Next, you have to consider the source. Selena Roberts has a history building stories around falsehoods fed her by anonymous sources with an axe to grind. That’s exactly what happened in the Duke Rape case, where her column served as a pipeline for public leaks from a prosecutor who has not only lost his job and license, but been jailed because his behavior was so egregious. And as we know, many of those leaked ‘facts’ were lies or deliberate mis-statements. Selena clearly doesn’t care whether any of her A-Rod allegations are true, she only cares that she can get one anonymous source to say something shocking to ensure her book will sell even more copies.”
Everytime I see that she writes for SI I shake my head. She found all this stuff, supposedly, while researching an attack on A-Rod’s personal life. I don’t have a problem with her reporting the steroids thing, but the way she found it and the fact that she wrote a book largely about his personal life (or so I’ve heard, I haven’t read it) is ridiculous to me. What is this, a Sports Illustrated writer or a Star Magazine writer? Seriously?
I wonder if Joe’s book (Big Red Machine!) is not in fact about the team playing baseball and is actually about Joe Morgan’s sex life and how Johnny Bench only tips the minimum when he eats out. I’m going to guess probably not, because Joe is actually a sports writer writing about SPORTS.
Anyway. Yes, if this was true it would bother me, and for all I know it is. But Michael Young was pretty vehement that it was absolutely not true, and you’d think as the second baseman he’d have had a pretty good idea if Alex was tipping pitches. And frankly I really don’t trust Selena Roberts and “anonymous sources”. Even the steroid in high school stuff…perhaps he did use it, I don’t know. I certainly can’t think of any other reason why a teenage boy very early on in high school might suddenly get bigger, can you? I mean, that’s so common that they must be handing steroids out like candy. Wait, puberty, what’s that?
Yes, it is possible, but if the best she has is “anonymous sources”, “he got bigger in early high school”, and “his teammates said he had breasts”, I’m not trusting her for one second.
Joe, what gets me is that this is an extremely serious charge to level against A-Rod, yet it sounds like all Selena Roberts has to back up her story is a few anonymous sources who heard/and or suspected stuff. There’s not a game listed as where this crime happened. There’s no videotape. There are no co-conspirators named. And Roberts doesn’t appear to have bothered to have interviewed anybody for her book who would have questioned her theory. Heck, she didn’t even suggest a game in which it could have happened.
So far, Michael Young, Mark Teixeira, Jeff Brantley, and most importantly, Buck Showalter have said this story is nonsense. I say the Showalter statement is the most compelling because 1) He doesn’t like A-Rod, 2) He is a micromanager who would have noticed such a thing in the first place, and 3) In the same interview where he vehemently denied this charge, he did concede that the “clubbie putting toothpaste on A-Rod’s toothbrush” was true.
Before Bud Selig investigates this “crime against baseball,” can somebody prove that the crime even happened in the first place?
What I like about this post was that Mr. Posnanski asks why cheating bothers fans so much…but what I don’t understand is why nobody points the finger to the fans themselves…we are actually the hypocrites here. When the strike happened, we all said we’d never come back, but when McGwire and Sosa were battling for the record, what did we all do?
We convinced ourselves that the “ball” was juiced. Even when McGwire was found to have andro, we turned a blind eye to it. We celebrated. We had that awkward man-hug in our hearts. I know 1994 was a long time ago, but let’s not forget what actually happened. They canceled the World Series and playoffs…and the Expos were never the same and Gwynn could’ve had a chance at .400. I mean we watched all the way to August…
Baseball reference says this on it postseason page: “1994 No Postseason played this year.”
REALLY??? IT WAS AWFUL. THE DODGERS WERE IN FIRST PLACE.
It’s easy to point the finger at A-Rod or McGwire or Palmeiro, but 1994 was the fuse that lit this and though baseball the higher ups in baseball are about as smart as beachball, we created this by letting steroids save baseball in 1998.
Let’s move on, shall we?
We love baseball for what is, and what it isn’t. Tipping pitches bugs me, but the batters still have to swing the bat and hit the ball. That takes more talent than steroids, or rest assured, I would bulk up and go swat homers for millions of dollars.
Brian: “It’s OK, and even wise, for a hitter to check the placement of the fielders, perhaps lay down a bunt if the 3rd baseman is playing too deep, but to look back and see where the catcher is positioned is unacceptable.”
What you said reminded me of that passage in Moneyball, where the A’s video staff was absolutely convinced that A-Rod was looking back at the catcher.
Loving sports and especially MLB nowadays seems like it is as difficult as running through a minefield blind-folded. I don’t like A-Rod one bit but all of this Selena Roberts celebrity “gotcha!” stuff just tends to bore me.
I’m not stating anything new here but where is the line between condemning PEDs but applauding athletes that are able to return to their sport only after some miraculous Tommy-John surgery? Playing so many games in the ’70s and ’80s on that horrible plastic grass in more than half the MLB venues changed (or harmed in my estimation) those games as much as juicing in the ’90s.
It’s enough to make many of us numb to knowing how we feel about all of these issues. Maybe that’s why I still root for the Pirates. We moved out of that horrible Three Rivers donut and now we always lose more than half of our games but in a nice city/fan friendly ballpark with players who, for the most part, aren’t muti-millionaire jerks. We just train them how to possibly become one of the above if they possess the skills.
How is tipping pitches done? Wouldn’t it be relatively easy to just look at the tape of blow out games during that time and see what Arod was doing? I’m pretty sure a camera would almost always be on Arod.
That’s got to be the biggest load of crap ever.
Tipping pitches? Does anyone remember Curt Schilling in the All Star Game a few years ago actually calling out to the catcher (and subsequently batter) what he was going to throw and whiffing the guy?
Tipping pitches is only about half the work. Is he giving away the pitch or the location? Still, only about half the work’s done.
And in those blowout games… were those JUST games they were down big? Or up big too? I say that because it makes sense that his numbers would be better in games that Texas scored a ton (which they tend to do). And looking at pitching stats for validity from Texas is like looking at Time magazine to rub one out…
And dead on about the Mike Sweeney thing (he was great, too bad the R’s never surrounded him with talent [or kept talent there]). A Rod still does the meaningless home runs in NY. He did them in Seattle. None of this has any REAL basis.
It’s because he’s the highest paid player in sports, has a tacky/selfish personality, and admitted to doing roids during those years in Texas. So why not attack everything else about his game? Did put a magnet in his glove to get those two gold gloves too?
Using statistics to determine if ARod, or anyone else for that matter, is/was tipping pitches seems like a fool’s errand. As many brilliant readers point out, there are many, many factors at work in blow out games that would tend to make hitting easier. Everything from lower qualitiy pitchers throwing (Horatio Ramirez time v. Soria time!), pitchers throwing mostly fastballs to speed the game up, the defense probably loses a bit of focus, hitters have more confidence, etc.
No if want to know if ARod was tipping pitches, go to the video and watch it. If someone is tipping pitches they are doing something visible to a hitter. To most of us, it will be seemingly random and meaningless. But watch enough video, or have enough inside baseball knowledge (I don’t) and patterns will emerge and he is tipping, or they won’t and he’s not.
Fellow JoeBlog readers: do not allow A-Rod: Bad Tipper to outsell Joe’s Big Red Book in your neighborhood. Start your campaign now, and let your friends know that while both books feature a well-known figure of doubtful integrity, only one of them will leave you feeling that you know more about its subject when you’re done with it.
A note on blowouts from a lifelong minor league who played for the Fargo-Moorhead RedHawks in the mid-’90s named Brian Traxler… I was the media relations director at the time and still played amateur baseball…
Trax (God rest his soul) loved two things–hitting and beer… He lived, breathed and talked hitting–constantly… I was always learning little things from him, and it’s a shame that he could never control his drinking because he would have been one of the greatest hitting coaches ever…
But, regarding blowouts… Trax believed that in blowouts many batters “gave up” at bats… With less on the line, concentration suffered and many hitters weren’t as focused as they were when the game was close (or even early in the game)… Getting an out meant the game ended a little sooner (something both teams generally wish in a blowout), so there wasn’t as much pressure…
Trax saw this as an opportunity… He felt blowouts gave batters more opportunities than they saw in close games:
1) You were usually facing the “mop-up” reliever–the “worst” pitcher on the team…
2) The added emphasis on throwing strikes made for more fastballs in the strike zone…
3) The defense was less likely to “lay out” for outs…
By his math, if you got five at bats in blowouts a week, that should account for an extra one or two hits a week for a batter who maintains equal focus on all of his at bats throughout every game…
If you figure that was worth an extra 30 hits in a 400 AB season, it would increase a players batting average .0075 points during the course of a season…
Or, the difference between a .295 average and a .302 average…
Or, what might be the difference between getting a call-up or staying in the minors…
For the record, Brian was 1-for-11 in his cup of coffee with the Dodgers… He was a lifetime .294 hitter in the minors, including a .302 mark in parts of six Triple-A seasons…
RIP, buddy…
A couple of thoughts. First, I don’t think it’s a big deal in terms of “the integrity of the game” if ARod was tipping pitches to a few fellow middle infielders. Guys have always tipped pitches, guys will always tip pitches. Not much, but guys have been tossing their buddy a bone like that for as long as their have been pitches to tip.
And I don’t think it would be any big, complicated conspiracy to implement. A casual mention when out to dinner sometime that “I’ll help you out if I get a chance to” would be enough.
That said, I doubt he did it. This sounds like someone with an axe to grind against Arod maybe taking one instance of him helping out a buddy and conjuring it into some regular pattern of behavior. Or worse, maybe just making it up out of whole cloth.
Anywa, if he did do it, which, again, I doubt, to me, the big deal about it would not be inflated numbers or any “integrity of the game” issue. It would just be ARod’s willingness to sell out his pitchers. I know virtually none of the Texas pitchers were competent anyway but they’re trying to keep ther ERAs down just as much as ARod’s buddies were trying to get their averages up and ARod should have their backs.
Finally, one of the things that is so insidious about this accusation is the way people start blowing it into more than it is. I heard a guy on Colin Cowherd’s show (I think Erik Kusilias was hosting though) complaining that if ARod was tipping to Big Papi and Papi was tipping back to ARod…and Kusilias just agreed with him and went on and on about how much worse the pitch-tipping is than the PEDs.
Now, a responsible radio host might have reigned the caller in by pointing out that there would be no way for Papi to tip ARod off to pitches. You know, from the bench. As a DH.
But idiots like that are going to go off in those directions which is why, if Selena Roberts has as little evidence as she appears to have for this accusation it was really grossly irresponsible and ARod should sue her for libel.
I am confused about one thing, and I’d like to see what Joe/Everybody thinks about it: The two stances I’ve seen from folks (including ESPN analysts) about pitch tipping are entirely contradictory. One camp says that pitch-tipping is part of the game, that it has been around forever, that it really is a non-issue. The other camp says that it absolutely is not common and that it is a violation of the game even worse than steroids.
The latter opinion tends to be the one voiced by players/ex-players, and I could definitely imagine them not wanting to come out and admit that pitch-tipping occurs, but on the other hand, who is going to be more of an expert, a player or an analyst?
Then again, I suppose this is just what Joe’s point was, that fans can’t really know what to believe anymore. Gah.
I know people have pointed out many reasons for why a batter might have a chance to pad his stats in the later stages of a blowout, and I think that those factors are probably a more likely reason than tipped pitches. But generally, this seems to be an accusation that is both impossible to prove or disprove. So, really, it is quite an ingenious way to heap scorn on A-Rod, whip up debate and controversy, and sell books at the same time. Because while the whole thing is a little hard to swallow, the fact that A-Rod is who he is, and that he is as despised as he is, makes everyone give more credence to this story than it would have otherwise.
Selena Roberts is simply not a reliable source. Her reporting on the Duke lacrosse team scandal was scandalous in itself, and she has never issued even a lukewarm retraction. When there was no more salacious material, she moved to another more sensationalistic [sensational?] subject. Her accusations are actionable, even though ARod is a public figure. We will never see that libel suit, unfortunately, but she would have to reveal her sources under oath. I would love to sit in on that deposition!
Thanks for the analysis, Joe. This is my favorite all-time blog, by far.
Soon as I saw the name Selena Roberts . . .
In response to Kyle’s comments a few posts ago:
Not to nitpick, and while agreeing with your friend Traxlers basic premise that blowouts are a good chance to pad state they not everyone takes advantage of, the math you used is way off.
In a 400 at bat season, to hit .295 you’d have to have 118 hits. Add your 30 blowout hits to that and the result isn’t a .302 average, it’s a .370 average. That’s not the difference between a call up and staying in the minors, that’s the difference between Bengie Molina 2008 and Ty
Cobb (no disrespect to my piano lugging catcher).
Even over a 600 AB season those 30 hits represent a full 50 points of average (.295 to .345), the difference between Bengie and, say, Ted Williams. Both comparisons looking solely at average, of course, since we all know Bengie doesn’t like to walk. Ever. (fun fact-Bengie has the most AB’s in the bigs this year without a walk. It’s hard to go a full month without getting at least one free pass. And despite that and my admitted statheadness, I love the guy!)
Anyhow, just wanted to mention that. Got what it’s worth. Which I know isn’t much. But I like joe and wanted to feel involved.
Thanks, Shonepup… There’s a reason I was a journalism major–MATH!!! LOL I saw the 0.075 on my calculator and didn’t think it through when I moved the decimal point…
LOL
Even if you figure one extra hit a week in blowout games, it can make a pretty significant difference in a batting average–which was his point…
This article is plain BS.
Another quick thing to consider:
I’ve heard many announcers (former players) say they didn’t like when their teammate on 2nd base would try to tip a pitch…because (a) it could be a distraction and (b) what if the pitcher doesn’t hit his target? its already been pointed out that the pitchers that come in during blowouts generally aren’t the best arms in the pen…so if A-Rod was to give an indication that the next pitch was going to be a fastball high & away, what would happen if the pitcher just missed his spot & threw high & in? or low & away, or anywhere other than the catcher’s target?
obviously this scenario involves someone on your own team trying to help you out, instead of your opponent…but really, is that cheating any less?
I had read anecdotes of the older players that sometimes the pitchers themselves would groove a “batting practice” type pitch to buddies on opposing teams when the games were out of reach….I’m pretty sure Mickey Mantle talked about this in one of his many “biographies” that were written.
First of all, re Selena Roberts — here’s a column from Joe’s paper, the KC Star, on her credibility and reporting skills (neither one is particularly distinguished), particularly with regard to the Duke lacrosse story:
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/1175681.html
For those interested in more details, here are search results for “Selena Roberts Duke lacrosse”):
http://tinyurl.com/crv2mh
Furthermore, one might wonder exactly how she got 4 confirmations (or so she claims) of A-Rod’s failed drug test, yet ABSOLUTELY NONE for any of the other 103 players who failed the same test the same year. (If she did, I certainly haven’t heard about it.) Or was she only asking about A-Rod to get material for her book and/or to demean him?
Contrary to what Ian #2 believes, I wouldn’t take Selena Roberts’ word for anything over A-Rod’s; hell, I wouldn’t take her word over that of any GWBush press secretary.
Kyle Richardson #27 –
As Shonepup has already pointed out, your math is off. But you are also off on the assumption that there are that many opportunities in blowouts.
To do a real quick analysis, I picked the 1998 Yankees on the assumption that they would have a lot of blowouts (or at least would be expected to, given that they won 114 games).
Of all their games, 55 ended with a run differential >= 5. In some of these games, the “blowout” was not in place until late in the game (e.g., 1-run lead bottom 8th, 2 outs, home teams hits a GS: final result is a blowout, but perhaps only one player batted after the blowout was in place). For sake of argument, let’s say that about half of those games were blowouts by the 7th inning; call it 26 games, since it makes the math easier.
So, that would be one game per week. Using the 7th-inning cutoff as above, roughly 1/3 the innings of these games were played in blowout situations. That means that an average full-time player would be batting in about 9 games worth of blowout innings; let’s say that comes to 40 plate appearances. To be really generous, let’s say that tipping pitches increases BA by 100%, so a .300 hitter becomes a .600 hitter.
Therefore, in the course of a season, a .300 hitter would get perhaps 12 extra hits if their productivity doubled because of their foreknowledge of the pitch coming. In a 600AB season, that makes the difference between .300 and .320 for the season.
Now, if any of my assumptions are too high (which they probably are), we get a much smaller result. For example, home-team blowouts would mean no batting in the 9th inning; players are more likely to be substituted in a blowout, etc.
Realistically, I don’t think this would have an impact of more than perhaps .005 in BA, or .305 instead of .300. (Not to mention the fact that knowing the pitch doesn’t necessarily help; Joe DiMaggio was known for telling his teammates that even if they knew the pitch coming, they were not to tell him because it would screw up his mental preparation.)
Whether A-Rod did or did not tip pitches, I don’t know (and neither does Selena Roberts). I do know that even if he did, the difference in performance is just slightly more than trivial.
Also, as Shark #37 points out, this is not particularly news. I don’t recall the Mick talking about it, but Denny McLain flat-out admitted that he grooved the pitch for Mantle’s last HR of his career. In fact, he had to do it more than once, because Mickey didn’t believe he was being serious on the first pitch.
What I find disapointing is that a what could have been a fascinating book about one of sports’ most intriguing players has instead turned into a sorid, half-fact filled farce that seems to have little to do with telling a story and more to do with confirming a particular viewpoint.
I compare her research and reliance on “anonymous sources” with a book like “The Fix” by Declan Hill. This book is about match fixing in professional football (soccer). Mr. Hill spent several years on the story, spoke to lots of unsavory types and yet was able to get many of them on the record. In addition, unlike Ms. Roberts allegations of pitch tipping that are not supported by any data, Mr. Hill examines specific games that are alleged to have been fixed.
When publishers do not demand a certain level of research, they demean the subject and the project. That is what I think happened with the A-Rod book and suspect that it will be readily available in any dollar bin within six months. I will await the next A-Rod which will hopefully be written by someone with better judgement and research skills.
[...] Check out the full post for more striking research that may not be a smoking gun, but it sure is one crazy coincidence otherwise. [...]
A-Rod was allegedly the one masterminding the conspiracy, which means he’d benefit the most from it because he’d know how to use the tips to his advantage.
Therefore, in my opinion, only A-Rod’s stats warrant investigation, because we don’t know who the supposed co-conspirators were.
And Joe Posnanski’s numbers of a blowout OPS of 1.084 vs. a non-blowout OPS of 1.088 suggests just the opposite. Further, we’d expect his OPS to shift in these situations once he got to NY and, again, that didn’t happen.
If it did happen – and Selena Roberts (double-chin, moles, and all) is a demonstrative liar about her coverage of the Duke lacrosse rape hoax – then, in my opinion, this would warrant an immediate lifetime ban for A-Rod.
But Joe Posnanski’s research suggests the opposite; and it was a very good idea on your part, Joe (although I understand that it’s inconclusive).
—–
Because the Texas pitching staff was so awful, if somebody wanted to do it, they could use the Log-5 method to see whether the opposing middle infielders hit higher than they’d be expected to in blowout games using that method.
Better yet, 100% of the time A-Rod was on the infield, he was being videotaped by the camera behind home plate. Every single second is recorded. Proving this would be easy as hell. Get the videos and prove it.
The fact that this was NOT done by the Ugly Woman suggests that it’s as silly as her claim that he took steroids in high school because he grew.
And remember, Buck Showalter, Michael Young, and a host of other notables have said in no uncertain terms that it’s all crap.
Wouldn’t it make more sense for a player to tip off the wrong pitch to a hitter in order to fool them?
This scenario would make more sense to me, particuarly in A-Rod’s case. Remember either last season or the season before when he shouted “Mine!” while running the bases to try and confuse the fielders on a popup.
Also I think that when it comes to baseball the term innocent untill proven guilty has been somewhat distorted over the last ten years and is now taken more as innocent until accused/alleged.
I realize I’m behind the curve here, but this is to your point on how cheating (or mere allegations of cheating) bring a San Fransisco-esque fog over the games we love.
In the above post, you say that you couldn’t see A-Rod working out a deal with David Eckstein for pitch-tipping purposes. You don’t elaborate, but I assume (tentatively) that this is because you see David Eckstein in a very positive light. Who wouldn’t? He’s tiny, and he works REALLY hard. That said, MY perception of David Eckstein, as well as players like him (effort guys), is based on things like legging out singles when his team is down by 7 runs in the 8th.
I would hate to think that something so pure as “Never Give Up” could actually be tainted… or fogged.
People have been complaining during A-Rod’s entire tenure in NY that he hits meaningless HRs, only now, he does it while playing third base. A-Rod apparently is the greatest pitch tipper of all-time.
[...] was also one of the players identified by Joe Posnanski as a potential recipient of Alex Rodriguez tip-offs in [...]