More on Maddux and Pedro
Posted: April 28th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 40 Comments »
This is a continuation of the the discussion: Who had the best seven-year pitching stretch in baseball history, Greg Maddux (1992-98) or Pedro Martinez (1997-03)?
The argument could be framed many different ways — you can go with different lengths of time (best 10-year stretch or best 5-year stretch or whatever), or you could simply pick the pitcher who had the best seven seasons (not consecutively), but I’m sticking with this one.
There are other arguments for the greatest stretch in pitching history. For instance, there was Sandy Koufax — I don’t think he can quite stretch it out to seven years, but he did have a remarkable six-year stretch from 1961-66 …
Koufax (1961-66): 129-47, .733%, 2.19 ERA, 35 SHO, 1,713 Ks, 412 BBs, 3 Cy Young Awards, MVP, 156 ERA+.
That’s awfully good, of course, but Koufax had many advantages. He was pitching in the best pitchers park in baseball. He was pitching off a very high mound. He was pitching during an extreme low-run environment … that’s why his 2.19 ERA over six years comes out to a 156 ERA+. Truth is his BEST ERA+ for a single season was 190, which is remarkable, but is not as good as either Maddux’s or Pedro’s entire seven year stretch.
Roger Clemens had a couple of terrific stretches in his amazing career, but no six or seven year stretch that quite gets him into this conversation.
Here are a few others for comparison …
Tom Seaver (1969-75): 136-71, .657, 2.46 ERA, 1918 ip, 1724 Ks, 530 walks, 146 ERA+.
Jim Palmer (1969-75): 129-65, .665, 2.47 ERA, 1840 ip, 1125 Ks, 602 walks, 141ERA+.
Walter Johnson (1910-16): 199-100, .666, 1.56 ERA, 2,485 IP, 1722 Ks, 472 walks, 188 ERA+.
Carl Hubbell (1931-37): 147-73, .668, 2.54 ERA, 2,022 IP, 998 Ks, 352 walks, 147 ERA+.
Lefty Grove (1926-32): 161-59, .732, 2.64 ERA, 1,928 IP, 1,293 Ks, 526 walks, 165 ERA+.
Pete Alexander (1911-17): 190-88, .683, 2,492 IP, 1,403 Ks, 555 walks, 143 ERA+.
Christy Mathewson (1905-11): 192-72, .727, 2,211 IP, 1,245 Ks, 370 walks, 154 ERA+.
Randy Johnson (1995-02): 143-44, .765, 2.61 ERA, 1,763 IP, 2,416 Ks, 541 walks, 177 ERA+.
Bob Gibson (1964-70): 138-72, .657, 2.52 ERA, 1,954 IP, 1,698 Ks,
So, you can see that:
1. Maddux’s 191 ERA+ and, especially, Pedro’s 213 ERA+ over seven seasons are historically insane.
2. Even the greatest pitchers in baseball history rarely managed a .700 winning percentage over a six or seven year period (in Unit’s case, because of injuries, that’s actually an eight-year period). Maddux’s .706 winning percentage is preposterously good. Pedro’s .766 winning percentage might be the best ever over a 7-year-period.
3. Maddux was a bulldog, but even so his 1,675 innings over seven years looks like kid’s play when you go back to the 1970s (with Palmer and Seaver) or way back to Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove and so on. Of course, two of Maddux’s seasons were shortened by the strike.
Pedro’s 1,408 innings is a full season less than Maddux.
Now, here are a few more things to look at when comparing Pedro and Maddux.
– Maddux made 34 more starts and pitched 267 more innings … basically, one full season. This is because Pedro was hurt much of the 2001 season and because he averaged 30.5 starts per year in his other six. Maddux averaged 32 starts over all seven years, and about 35 starts a year in seasons not affected by the strike.
– The Cubs/Braves record when Maddux started a game was 146-80, a .646 winning percentage. That includes non-decisions and everything else. His teams won at a .590 winning percentage when he did not pitch. So, over a 162-game season, Maddux’s teams would win 96 games when he was not on the mound. With Maddux on the mound they would win 105 games. For this little experiment, that would make Maddux a plus-9 pitcher.
The Expos/Red Sox record when Pedro pitched — again, including no-decisions — was 138-63, an insane .687 winning percentage.
His teams won at a .517 clip when he was not pitching. So, over a 162 game season, Pedro’s teams would win 84 games. With Pedro on the mound, they would win 111.
That makes Pedro a plus-27 pitcher. Which is plain sick. He turned the 1986 Cleveland Indians into the 1954 Cleveland Indians whenever he pitched. He turned the 2005 New York Mets into the 1986 Mets. He turned the 1985 Baltimore Orioles into the 1970 Baltimore Orioles.
There’s no wrong conclusion here. I think we are talking here about the two best primes in baseball history, and they happened to come around the same time which is quite remarkable. I’m the world’s biggest Maddux fan, and I think he has some very real advantages. I think Pedro in his prime is the best pitcher who ever lived.
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wow.
its amazing how fast time flies…
Pedro was astounding.
i never got a chance to watch much of G.M., but living in Boston i saw just about every Pedro start i was able to.
great pitcher. electric is an overused word, but Fenway felt different when he pitched.
wow. and i was first. a dream come true!
Wow, that plus 27 is an amazing number. Really amazing.
I think the other question to be asked is: are we talking about a single game (say, Game 7 of the World Series), or just that entire 7 year stretch? If it’s the former, then Pedro is the no-doubt choice. The latter? I’d still take Pedro, but Maddux has a better case because of the larger number of innings.
So why aren’t the Brewers signing him so I can see him pitch in person?!?!?!
The mastermind(s?) behind Baseballprojection.com just released a database with Wins Above Replacement (WAR) totals for all pitchers in the Retrosheet era. I like WAR, because it’s such a straightforward expression of value and is free from problems plaguing BP’s various WARP stats. It’s more of less ideal for figuring out who was more valuable than whom in a debate like this.
I added up the years in question for Maddux and Martinez and found, to my frustration, that there’s hardly any difference (51.1 wins for Pedro, 50.9 for Greg). Martinez had higher highs and lower lows, but they were both frighteningly good. I can’t decide!
Is the “plus 9″ and “plus 27″ misleading? Wouldn’t Maddux’s numbers with the braves be skewed because Glavine and Smoltz were raising the winning percentage when he wasn’t playing? Thus causing his plus 9 wins over a season to be lower? Or did the same thing happen to Pedro with the BoSox (and thus it’s a moot point)? I only started following baseball recently, so I don’t know about the quality of the starting pitching for these teams during the times in question.
I do wish I had started watching baseball as a kid so I could have watched these dudes play. It’s always kind of a bummer coming in as a fan on a players twilight years. You hear they were great, you see their stats, but because you’ve only seen them so-so, it doesn’t really sink it. For me at least.
Wow. Those stats make Johan Santana’s nice little run a few years ago look like chump change!
I remember a few years ago when Pedro had about 15 wins at the break. Was that ‘99 or ‘00? It was the only time in my life so far that I really felt like I might see a 30 win season. If anyone could do it, I figured it would be Pedro.
In case anyone’s wondering: Maddux’s teams went 19-28 in his no-decisions in his seven-year prime. Pedro’s teams went 20-27. But for what it’s worth, if you factor out his 1997 Montreal season, he would be 18-23. And if you also were to subtract his 2001 season, where he missed two months with injury, he’d be 16-17. Although I’m not saying you should.
I am a Maddux guy.
He was so freaking good, and yet it didn’t seem like he could do anything that I couldn’t have done. He could, of course, but I could aspire to be like Maddux.
I could never even dream of what it would be like to throw like Pedro.
For some, that would be the reason to think Pedro was better. But I still would take Maddux.
And as an aside, I think the +9 versus the +27 is a flawed statistic in that Maddux was pitching with two future HoFers for most of his run, so of course the winning percentage would have been higher in games he didn’t start. So while the +27 is definitely impressive, it testifies as much to the quality of Smoltz and Glavine as it does the greatness of Pedro.
How does Steve Carlton stack up?
I wish there was a way to know if each of these players were “clean” [read: P.E.D. free]. Because if one was and one wasn’t that would be a big factor for me in trying to decide which one was better, etc. I say this because I have an undocumented suspicion that one wasn’t.
Getting to see Maddux and Pedro pitch in person is something for which I am truly appreciative.
My brother and I took my dad to Fenway for his birthday on June 4, 1999. Pedro was trying to go 11-1 in the middle of his amazing 23-4 season. He was BRILLIANT that Friday night – complete game, 3 hits, 16 strikeouts, 1 run (a 303-ft HR by Ryan Klesko that barely cleared Pesky’s Pole in rightfield).
After the game, we saw that Maddux was scheduled to pitch that Saturday afternoon, so we bought tickets. Maddux wasn’t his usual self – 11 hits, 5 runs – but he did pitch 8 innings and won the game when the Braves scored 2 in the top of the 9th.
I’ve had the pleasure of seeing Pedro pitch several times, but getting to say that I saw Maddux pitch in person was great.
While this is neither here nor there when it comes to this argument, I love that two guys with such contrasting styles could share the distinction of being arguably the best pitchers over a seven-year span in history.
While I didn’t see that much of Maddux, I saw (and heard, and read) enough to know that his stuff had great movement but didn’t look or seem as imposing or overpowering as Pedro’s. At their best (health- and stuff-wise), I always got the sense that Pedro could strike out 18 guys and toss a no-no, while with Maddux it seemed more likely that he’d induce 18 weak grounders, a few of which might sneak through.
I wonder which was more demoralizing to opponents…going into a game against Pedro thinking “we’re not gonna get to this guy” or coming out of a game against Maddux saying “I can’t believe we couldn’t get to that guy.”
@Devon: Pedro probably could have won 30 if he had the offense behind him that the red sox have now. You probably remember as well as I do, the sox werent exactly the strongest offensive team outside of Nomar.
OK, now for this. I swear I remember a game in either the 99 or 00 season, where Pedro threw that ridonkulous changeup and it started inside and the batter swung and it ended up hitting him in the chest. Does anyone else remember this? I know it was a day game and I’m pretty sure it was against the orioles. None of my friends seem to remember this happening. Little help here. Am I just remembering wrong?
I posted this before, but on one game alone 9-10-1999 Pedro vs. Yankees I give it to Pedro. 28 Batters faced, 17 Ks.
I wish MLB network or NESN would show that game.
Plus, Maddox never had a midget sidekick.
I feel that Jheri Curls must somehow be factored into this argument…
One interesting note, excluding Pedro’s own seasons, his seven-year cumulative 213 ERA+ is better than the individual league leader’s ERA+ in all but eight years since the end of World War II (Bob Gibson 1968, Dwight Gooden 1985, Greg Maddux 1994 and 1995, Kevin Brown (!) 1996, Roger Clemens 1997 and 2005 and he tied Clemens 1990). So in 119 seasons in which Pedro did not lead the league in ERA+, only eight times did someone exceed his seven-year average.
Maddux is still impressive here, but, not including his own years, his 191 was bettered 18 times.
You could have listed this guy with the other comparisons:
Addie Joss 1903-1909
138-79 .636, 1.74 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 148 ERA+
Probably the best pitcher of his era.
Andrew #13 –
Obviously, there is no way to be 100% sure who was/was not (or is/is not, for that matter) doing PEDs. That said, if either Greg Maddux or Pedro Martinez was taking PEDs, they should have asked for their money back.
DF #17 –
Well, if you want to go by just one game, there’s this one (yes, these links are all about the same game):
http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/12/06/1260/
http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/08/03/the-master-july-2-1997/
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA199707020.shtml
Two personal observations on that game:
1) My best friend is a diehard, hates everybody else, Yankee fan. In addition, he has also been known to enjoy an adult beverage at the game; when I have gone with him, he averages roughly one beer per inning. And, most importantly here, he was at this game.
To this day, I can always get him going — and good — by mentioning this game. In addition to Maddux’ total domination, he is still pissed that the game was over so fast he couldn’t get drunk by the 7th inning, when they cut off beer sales at the Stadium.
2) I saw several player interviews with the Yankees prior to the 1999 World Series, when they played the Braves (and swept them 4 straight). To a man, every player who had been on the team on 7/2/97 brought up this game when asked about batting against Maddux in the upcoming Series; to a man, they were still utterly amazed and baffled by his performance.
Not that I have anything against Pedro, but I was always (and still am) a bigger fan of Mad Dog. (And is that not the funniest nickname in sports, given what Maddux looks like?)
Jeff #20 –
And Addie Joss is the answer to a great trivia question: who is the only player in the HoF who did not play in 10 MLB seasons, as required by the HoF rules?
He was given special dispensation because he was on the spring training roster in 1911, but died before Opening Day.
addie joss does indeed need to be put on the list. in some respects the pedro of his time, carreer tragically cut short by illness.
the best pitchers of that era in the early 1900’s were him, ed walsh in the american league and three finger brown and mathewson in the national league.
i’m pretty sure back in that time there were some discusssions like we are having now with pedro/maddux. Most eras seem to breed a few good pitchers in fact the only area i can think of that did not produce multiple talents was the 1920’s. Lefty Grove was far and away the most dominant pitcher in the league, no one comes close and in fact he was the best player in the league once, during the ruth era of yankeees winnning everything. Pedro is fantastic, and MAddaux was a wizard, but what Lefty Grove did over that strech, but so much distance betweeen him and his peeers it is ridiclous. 3 straight pennents over the yankeees, 2 world series titles, 2 pitching triple crowns, 6 straight years leading the league in strike outs, 9 era titles. was this because no one else was any goood or was he just so much better?
David #22-
Joss also has the lowest WHIP in baseball history. I only became aware of him a few years ago, its really a tragic story.
David #21
I don’t know what is more amazing about that game, the fact that he only threw 84 pitches. or the fact that two of the three time the Yanks actually got someone on base Maddux immediately removed them, once by pickoff once by double play. Having seen my team be overmatched by Maddux a number of times, i can immediately picture exactly how that game unfolded from the box score, i don’t need Joe’s descriptions (though they do add so much flavor). But seriously there was no one more frustrating to watch your team lose to then Maddux when he was on, because every time contact was made it was just a little bit off. You never saw a ball hit square.
I will concede that the MLB network should show:
Pedro 9-10-1999
and
Maddux 7-2-1997
Back to back please.
I lived in NYC during both of those years, but I only went to the Pedro game. Full disclosure, I am Red Sox season ticket holder, so a bias may exist.
@JCT #12
From 1976-1982, Carlton went 137-65, .678, 2.87 ERA, 1823.2 IP, 1518 Ks, 551 walks, 130 ERA+. This 7-year period was better than the one with 1972, since his 1970 and 1973 seasons were relatively terrible.
You know, this is kind of fun. And how about Roger Clemens (1986-1992): 136-63, .683, 2.66 ERA, 1799.1 IP, 1673 Ks, 486 walks, 160 ERA+
Cy Young (1901-1907): 171-101, .629, 2.09 ERA, 2429.1 IP (insane), 1191 strikeouts, 262 walks, 143 ERA+
Bert Blyleven (1971-1977): 112-104, .519, 2.76 ERA, 1979.2 IP, 1593 strikeouts, 506 walks, 135 ERA+
Nolan Ryan (1972-1978): 122-107, .533, 3.01 ERA, 1958.2 IP, 2193 strikeouts, 1188 walks, 115 ERA+
Johan Santana still doesn’t quite have 7 full seasons, so it’ll be interesting how his 7-year stats turn out after this season.
@ Richard #7:
Here are Maddux’s rotation mates for the 1992 Cubs (78-84): Mike Morgan, Frank Castillo, Danny Jackson, and Shawn Boskie. They combined for a 35-39 record, 650 innings, and a 3.48 ERA. Their avg. ERA+ was 101.
Here are Maddux’s rotation mates for the 1995 Braves (90-54): Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Steve Avery, and Kent Mercker. They combined for a 42-35 record, 707.2 innings, and a 3.71 ERA. Their avg. ERA+ was 116.7.
Here are Maddux’s rotation mates for the 1998 Braves (106-56): Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Denny Neagle, and Kevin Millwood. They combined for a 70-28 record, 781.2 innings, and a 3.21 ERA. Their avg. ERA+ was 132.5.
Here are Pedro’s rotation mates for the 1997 Expos (78-84): Carlos Perez, Dustin Hermanson, Jim Bullinger, Jeff Juden, and Mike Johnson. They combined for a 40-43 record, 700.2 innings, and a 4.42 ERA. Their average ERA+ was 77.3
Here are Pedro’s rotation mates for the 2000 Red Sox (85-77): Jeff Fassero, Ramon Martinez, Pete Schourek, Rolando Arrojo, Tomo Ohka, Tim Wakefield, and Brian Rose. They combined for a 36-45 record, 656.1 innings, and a 5.22 ERA. Their avg ERA+ was 103.8
Here are Pedro’s rotation mates for the 2003 Red Sox (95-67): Derek Lowe, Tim Wakefield, John Burkett, Casey Fossum, and Jeff Suppan. They combined for a 49-32 record, 729.1 innings, and a 4.74 ERA. Their avg ERA+ was 95.6.
So Maddux clearly had better rotation mates. That may not be significant, but it may have partially contributed to the +9 / +27 win difference between Maddux and Pedro.
I attended two games that Pedro started during his prime; both times he struck out 17 batters. In fact, those were the only two times Pedro ever struck out that many. Pedro was brilliant in the first game, a game that the Red Sox lost 1-0 to the Devil Rays. But the second game is the one that has to be considered one of the all-time great pitching performances, as Martinez allowed the 1999 Yankees only one hit – a home run by Chili Davis at Yankee Stadium. Other than the one pitch to Davis, Pedro was literally unhittable. The Yankees of that year, a great team, simply had no chance against him. Pedro ended the game with a 97 mph fastball to Chuck Knoblauch. I’ve seen a no-hitter in person, and that didn’t compare to what Pedro did that night.
Greg Maddux was amazing. You can make a reasonable argument that he had the best pitching career of all times. But at his very best, Pedro was Greg Maddux with a 97 mph fastball.
Personally, I’m a Pedro man. I think this has to do with the fact that Pedro pitched for the Expos and Maddux pitched for the Braves in the mid-90’s. That is the Braves were really good and always seemed to knock the Astros out of the playoffs (1997, 1999, 2001). Therefore Maddux was an enemy, a man to be feared not appreciated. The Expos on the other hand were not a huge threat to the Astros, so Pedro wasn’t as much as an enemy, just an excellent pitcher I could appreciate.
Another reason I think I like Pedro more is because he was a character. Maddux just never seemed that interesting of a person, Pedro always seemed to be surrounded by controversy.
I grew up in the South and thus saw ALOT of Greg Maddux. I always thought I had the best deal in the country with Glavine and Smoltz there to watch as well. But now I’m realizing I had VERY little exposure to Pedro during those awesome years. I feel cheated. I wish I could get some games on DVD to watch.
The greatest thing I ever saw Pedro do was in an otherwise unremarkable start (he might not even have lasted around to get a win) against the Blue Jays, he stuck out Mondesi on three curve balls in about 4 seconds. Each was a little bit blooping.
First pitch. What was that? Strike out, okay. Since when does he … well, he’s surely not going to throw that … he’s already winding up? ANOTHER ONE? Well, he’s not going to throw THAT pitch three times in a … wait! Three? How long did that at bat last?
@13 – Are you implying Pedro used PEDs because there is no way I can see you imagine it would be Maddux.
The great thing about this argument is that it is like arguing which game is more perfect?
Game A: pitcher gets 27 strikeouts (pitcher strikes out everyone)
or
Game B: pitcher throws only 27 pitches (every pitch hit for an out)
I’m guessing but I bet that for the majority of people that
If you pick Game A you prefer Pedro
If you pick Game B you prefer Maddux
There is no correct answer and obviously either is phenomenal, but what it really comes down to is how you see the game.
Would be interested to see peoples thoughts on the perfect game, maybe do it as a poll Joe? (Pretty please)
I’m a little late to the party but shit, go with Big Unit’s 7 yr run. Sure his ERA+ is lower but it’s almost 400 innings more then Pedro.
Joe, I think your logic is flawed here. I understand the methodology behind Pedro being +27 while Maddux was only a +9, but I think Maddux is being unfairly punished for pitching on those great Braves teams of the Mid-90s, while Pedro is getting extra credit for his Expos years. Maddux, much like Steve Carlton’s 27-10 year would have put up a great winning percentage for whomever he pitched.
The Pedro phenomenon goes even beyond the stats. For those who lived in Boston during that time, you know what I mean. Pedro basically made the Red Sox what they are now (a daily sellout at Fenway). Pedro games were an event. In those years Fenway didn’t sell out every game like they do now (not until the summer at least), except whenever Pedro pitched. Have no stats to back this up but I bet that the street value of a ticket to a Pedro game at Fenway was 30-40% higher than any other game (except Yankees games).
I saw maybe a half dozen Pedro starts at Fenway and the buzz in the park was surreal. But every time he pitched you knew you were seeing something special and every game he could just dominate.
I remember one game I was at specifically. Was in the bleachers with a couple friends and we knew what a Pedro start meant. In front of us were 50 8th graders from one of the Carolina’s on a school trip to Boston. None of them had ever been to a MLB game and they were in awe over the electricity in the park. We spent the game drinking our adult beverages and explaining to them how lucky they were (and booing their teachers who kept telling them to sit down). This was a Pedro game, no one sat down when there were 2 strikes.
Fenway during a Pedro start was a baseball party with Dominican flags and K-men throughout the park. I’ve never seen a ‘meaningless’ regular season game quite like a Pedro game during that time, and I probably never will again.
I’m not convinced we are talking apples and apples here. Koufax pitched the bulk of his “prime” period on three days rest which would have killed Pedro. He also completed 27 of his 41 starts the last two years of his career. If someone could figure out what his ERA would have been if he was a seven inning pitcher like Pedro, it would be interesting to see if that made any difference.
I love Maddux. He is on my short list of the greatest pitchers all-time. And I loved watching his games.
But Pedro was the best of Maddux and Clemens. He had the near perfect command and intelligence of one and the power of the other, and then some. An amazing repertoire to go with it all.
I always considered his 1999 ALDS victory over Cleveland to be one of the most remarkable performances I’ve seen. Coming in relief on the short end of an 8-7 slugfest he pitched no-hit, 8K ball for 6 innings leading to Boston’s series win. And he did it completely with guile as he was hurt and could not get his fastball even to 90.
ERA+???
is it possible that pitchers who pitched in good pitcher’s eras would have also had higher ERA+ in the steroid era, how rediculous would koufax numbers have to be to get to a 213 ERA+???
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