Comments on: The Count of Counting Counts, Part II http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/ A Rough Draft Blog Wed, 17 Mar 2010 01:43:37 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Terrence (Milwaukee) http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-61236 Terrence (Milwaukee) Thu, 21 May 2009 19:20:41 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-61236 Can someone please inform Clint Hurdle that it probably is not necessary to bench players for swinging at a bad pitch in an 8-1 game? Wouldn't it be more prudent to work with that player to gain better pitch recognition? Can someone please inform Clint Hurdle that it probably is not necessary to bench players for swinging at a bad pitch in an 8-1 game? Wouldn’t it be more prudent to work with that player to gain better pitch recognition?

]]> By: 3rd Period Points http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-58373 3rd Period Points Sat, 25 Apr 2009 19:05:09 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-58373 Excellent observations by McKingford (1st Counts Post), Sid, and others with regards to the large number of first pitch swings (fouls/whiffs) not represented by Joe's data. This may point to the existence of an optimum % of first pitch swings for MLB hitters. In the same way that game theory shows that optimal poker strategy dictates that a player, even a tight one, should occasionally raise pre-flop with mediocre cards in order to maintain unpredictability, a batter may need to keep the opposition honest by occasionally jumping on the first pitch of an at bat.* This is definitely not a license to hack away at the first offering most of the time. Perhaps something more like ~20% of first pitch strikes should be pounced on in accordance with said theory? I would love to read more on this topic. *Obviously, there are many variables at work in any given plate appearance. A pitcher struggling to find the zone (i.e. a four pitch walk preceding the PA), a hitter's history w/ the pitcher, a hitter's ability to make contact/hit with two strikes, various unique game situations, etc. A hitter must be aware of so many things**, still, I wonder if there might be some empirical evidence pointing to an optimum first pitch swing rate as a general guideline. **I love this game! Excellent observations by McKingford (1st Counts Post), Sid, and others with regards to the large number of first pitch swings (fouls/whiffs) not represented by Joe’s data.

This may point to the existence of an optimum % of first pitch swings for MLB hitters.

In the same way that game theory shows that optimal poker strategy dictates that a player, even a tight one, should occasionally raise pre-flop with mediocre cards in order to maintain unpredictability, a batter may need to keep the opposition honest by occasionally jumping on the first pitch of an at bat.*

This is definitely not a license to hack away at the first offering most of the time. Perhaps something more like ~20% of first pitch strikes should be pounced on in accordance with said theory? I would love to read more on this topic.

*Obviously, there are many variables at work in any given plate appearance. A pitcher struggling to find the zone (i.e. a four pitch walk preceding the PA), a hitter’s history w/ the pitcher, a hitter’s ability to make contact/hit with two strikes, various unique game situations, etc. A hitter must be aware of so many things**, still, I wonder if there might be some empirical evidence pointing to an optimum first pitch swing rate as a general guideline.

**I love this game!

]]> By: mike http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-58310 mike Fri, 24 Apr 2009 16:05:18 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-58310 Yep. If you don't care about it, it must be stupid, 'Shark.' We apologize for talking soccer here on ... uh, your blog. Yep. If you don’t care about it, it must be stupid, ‘Shark.’ We apologize for talking soccer here on … uh, your blog.

]]> By: Shark http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-58236 Shark Thu, 23 Apr 2009 18:21:08 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-58236 After reading these stupid soccer debates I want to change my #10 vote from Pele to Walt Frazier.....CLYDE!!! After reading these stupid soccer debates I want to change my #10 vote from Pele to Walt Frazier…..CLYDE!!!

]]> By: Melody http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-58216 Melody Thu, 23 Apr 2009 15:20:23 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-58216 In light of how much the balance tips in favor of pitchers after two strikes, check out these notes from Jayson Stark on Wang's recent struggles: * He's gone to an 0-2 count on just six hitters all season -- and those hitters have gone 4-for-6 against him, with two doubles. * He has at least gotten to two strikes at some point against 21 of those batters -- and those 21 have gone an insane 11-for-18 (.611), with three walks, six doubles and only two strikeouts. WOW. Given Joe's numbers, this is pretty crazy. I'm wondering, does the fact that he's having such trouble even with two strikes suggest the problem is particularly serious, or that it's something temporary? Can we even know from this info? The numbers seemed very striking given the results from Joe's almighty spreadsheet. In light of how much the balance tips in favor of pitchers after two strikes, check out these notes from Jayson Stark on Wang’s recent struggles:

* He’s gone to an 0-2 count on just six hitters all season — and those hitters have gone 4-for-6 against him, with two doubles.

* He has at least gotten to two strikes at some point against 21 of those batters — and those 21 have gone an insane 11-for-18 (.611), with three walks, six doubles and only two strikeouts.

WOW. Given Joe’s numbers, this is pretty crazy. I’m wondering, does the fact that he’s having such trouble even with two strikes suggest the problem is particularly serious, or that it’s something temporary? Can we even know from this info? The numbers seemed very striking given the results from Joe’s almighty spreadsheet.

]]> By: Tom http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-58215 Tom Thu, 23 Apr 2009 15:11:12 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-58215 Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera did not walk anyone last year after a first pitch strike. Of the 449 batters to see 0-1 against Mariano Rivera since 2006, only one achieved a walk. Johan Santana last year After 1-0: .199/.289/.311 After 0-1: .217/.260/.331 Jonathan Papelbon career After 1-0: .170/.267/.280 After 0-1: .188/.224/.280 Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera did not walk anyone last year after a first pitch strike.

Of the 449 batters to see 0-1 against Mariano Rivera since 2006, only one achieved a walk.

Johan Santana last year

After 1-0: .199/.289/.311
After 0-1: .217/.260/.331

Jonathan Papelbon career

After 1-0: .170/.267/.280
After 0-1: .188/.224/.280

]]> By: Geoffrey http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-58212 Geoffrey Thu, 23 Apr 2009 15:05:25 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-58212 "Was Pele a class act throughout his career? Yes Was Maradona a cokehead whose most famous goal went in off his hand? Yes" I respond to this with one of Joes favourite quotes from Buck O'Neil "Could he play ball, that's what counts" Obviously referring to football here rather than baseball "Pele scored twice as many goals, both in the same number of caps and in nearly the same number of league games (560-490)" Unlike baseball, football cannot be quantified quite the same with numbers, especially when talking about players who do not play the same position. Pele was a striker (or a support striker if you prefer) whereas Maradona was a midfielder (albeit a very attacking one). If you only used this scored more goals/better goal to game ratio than Maradona would also be classed second best to the great Gabriel Batistuta who also played for Argentina and scored a great many more goals (and at a better strike rate). Also let me point to the fact that in Argentina the #10 shirt for the national team is considered to be Maradona's and new players simply inherit his shirt. This is most definately not the case in Brazil where the #10 is not held in anywhere near the same esteem even with regards to Pele having worn it. It is in the unmeasurables alongside the basic stats that make Maradona a better player in my opinion. His reputation and drugs past should not effect his position as a great player. I do concede however that Maradona's drug use may tarnish his #10 legacy especially in countries such as the USA where most people are less knowledgable on football and so Pele's cleaner image would help in the poll. “Was Pele a class act throughout his career? Yes
Was Maradona a cokehead whose most famous goal went in off his hand? Yes”

I respond to this with one of Joes favourite quotes from Buck O’Neil
“Could he play ball, that’s what counts”
Obviously referring to football here rather than baseball

“Pele scored twice as many goals, both in the same number of caps and in nearly the same number of league games (560-490)”

Unlike baseball, football cannot be quantified quite the same with numbers, especially when talking about players who do not play the same position. Pele was a striker (or a support striker if you prefer) whereas Maradona was a midfielder (albeit a very attacking one). If you only used this scored more goals/better goal to game ratio than Maradona would also be classed second best to the great Gabriel Batistuta who also played for Argentina and scored a great many more goals (and at a better strike rate).

Also let me point to the fact that in Argentina the #10 shirt for the national team is considered to be Maradona’s and new players simply inherit his shirt. This is most definately not the case in Brazil where the #10 is not held in anywhere near the same esteem even with regards to Pele having worn it.

It is in the unmeasurables alongside the basic stats that make Maradona a better player in my opinion. His reputation and drugs past should not effect his position as a great player.

I do concede however that Maradona’s drug use may tarnish his #10 legacy especially in countries such as the USA where most people are less knowledgable on football and so Pele’s cleaner image would help in the poll.

]]> By: Brent http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-58209 Brent Thu, 23 Apr 2009 14:54:46 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-58209 "Here’s a fun one … and I have no idea why this would be true. But pitchers are twice as likely to hit a batter after getting ahead 0-1 as they are when starting the count is 1-0" Joe to answer your question in this blog post on hit batsmen. It is clear that pitchers are hitting batters way more often when they get ahead in the count. Look at the numbers from your first counting blog post, the hit batsmen are clearly the difference between BA and OBP in any count without 3 balls or 2 strikes; when the pitcher is ahead, there is about .1 difference, when the count is even, there is about a .05 difference, and pitchers almost never hit batters when they are behind in the count. This tells me that when ahead in the count, pitchers often are "moving" the batter off the plate and occasionally they get a little too far inside and hit the batter. “Here’s a fun one … and I have no idea why this would be true. But pitchers are twice as likely to hit a batter after getting ahead 0-1 as they are when starting the count is 1-0″

Joe to answer your question in this blog post on hit batsmen. It is clear that pitchers are hitting batters way more often when they get ahead in the count. Look at the numbers from your first counting blog post, the hit batsmen are clearly the difference between BA and OBP in any count without 3 balls or 2 strikes; when the pitcher is ahead, there is about .1 difference, when the count is even, there is about a .05 difference, and pitchers almost never hit batters when they are behind in the count.

This tells me that when ahead in the count, pitchers often are “moving” the batter off the plate and occasionally they get a little too far inside and hit the batter.

]]> By: smperk http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-58207 smperk Thu, 23 Apr 2009 14:36:46 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-58207 Pele was far better than Maradona. PS my favorite number is 10 Pele was far better than Maradona.

PS my favorite number is 10

]]> By: mike http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-58205 mike Thu, 23 Apr 2009 14:33:59 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/22/the-count-of-counting-counts-part-ii/#comment-58205 Sorry, Geoffrey, but we're not awarding fractional points. If I think Pele's better, he goes up 1-0. If most people think Pele's better, he goes up 623-42. Firstly, he's the first name in soccer. (Ha ha! Get it?) And secondly, Pele scored twice as many goals, both in the same number of caps and in nearly the same number of league games (560-490). No issue with you liking Maradona more, or even thinking him better, but not much surprise to me that most people side with Pele, who also might be getting points for being an ambassador of the game. And this doesn't even address their playing styles. Sorry, Geoffrey, but we’re not awarding fractional points. If I think Pele’s better, he goes up 1-0. If most people think Pele’s better, he goes up 623-42.

Firstly, he’s the first name in soccer. (Ha ha! Get it?) And secondly, Pele scored twice as many goals, both in the same number of caps and in nearly the same number of league games (560-490). No issue with you liking Maradona more, or even thinking him better, but not much surprise to me that most people side with Pele, who also might be getting points for being an ambassador of the game. And this doesn’t even address their playing styles.

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