Around The Horn
Posted: April 22nd, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 36 Comments »
A few baseball thoughts for this Wednesday as I get ready to head to Cleveland for some baseball and a speech at the Seymour Medal Conference and a good bit of childhood.
From Brilliant Reader Matt.
“I don’t believe in that on-base percentage (stuff). That’s overrated to me. If you get hits, you’ll be on base. That’s what it’s about.”
- Brandon Phillips
Here’s what I love about this quote: It’s only three sentences and yet it takes a most wonderful stroll through Logic Park. I believe if you Google Mapped those three sentences, it would go like so:
Starting point.
1. I don’t believe in on base percentage. 1.7 miles.
2. The thing is measures — getting on base — is overrated. 22.4 miles.
3. I believe that if you get hits, you will get on base. 12.6 miles.
4. And getting on base with hits is what it’s all about. 2.4 miles.
Destination.
Of course, what he is saying but not saying is that WALKS are overrated — this, in large part, because Brandon Phillips doesn’t walk. The weird thing is there are many people who believe that walks are overrated even though baseball’s most basic statistic — batting average — does not even consider walks.
The thing you will often hear from people who dislike walks is that walks cannot do what singles can do. You cannot drive a runner in with a walk unless the bases are loaded. You cannot move a runner from first to third with a walk. And so on.
And this is true … in many situations a walk is not as good as a hit. Of course, in many other situations a walk is exactly as good as a hit.*
*In a certain book that is coming out, the author recounts what would be Joe Morgan’s perfect run. It would go like so: Morgan would fight and claw for a walk. Then he would steal second. Then he would steal third. And then would score on a short fly ball. Morgan, the player, firmly believed that he could destroy a pitcher’s mental well-being more with a run that did not require a single hit than with a long home run. The walk was one of the 1975 Cincinnati Reds great weapons.
And, more to the point, in just about every situation a walk is better than an out*.
*I guess a sac fly with a the score tied in the bottom of the ninth would be better than a walk … probably a few other situations like that.
And this is exactly why Brandon Phillips’ quote is silly. He knows getting on base is what it’s all about … but he thinks that the proper way to get on base is to get hits. That’s his opinion, and that’s his style, and that’s why he had a .312 on-base percentage last year. This doesn’t make him a bad player … he’s quite a good player. He plays excellent second base defense, he hits with some power, he will steal you a base.
But it very clearly makes him less valuable than he could be with, say, 20 more walks instead of outs per year. Phillips hit a ludicrous .182 on 3-1 counts last year. That’s almost impossible for a good player to do … That could be in part because he’s so eager to get on base the manly way.
* * *
Here, for the record, are those six double plays the Royals hit into against Cleveland on Tuesday:
3rd inning, nobody out, man on first: David DeJesus grounded to second, 4-6-3.
4th inning. nobody out, men on first and second: Alberto Callaspo grounded to third, 5-4-3.
5th inning, nobody out, man on first: Coco Crisp grounded to short, 6-4-3.*
*Crisp is REALLY fast. I have been watching him for years, but only by watching him every day have I come to appreciate just how fast he really is. He’s not a good base stealer, but he makes every play close at first and he can fly in the outfield. It’s hard to double him up.
6th inning, one out, man on first: Mark Teahen grounded to second, 4-6-3.
7th inning, one out, bases loaded: Coco Crisp grounded to third, 5-4-3*.
*Well, OK, apparently not that fast.
8th inning, one out, man on first: Miguel Olivo grounded back to pitcher, 1-6-3.
* * *
Well, the Seattle Mariners have NINE sacrifice bunts in 14 games — that would put them on pace for more than 100 sacrifices this season. For the record, the Minnesota Twins led the American League last year with 52 sacrifice hits.
The last American League team to even have more than 70 sacrifice hits in a season was the 1993 Boston Red Sox with 80. Butch Hobson managed that team … and that was one bunting ballclub. John Valentin (16), Tony Pena (13) and Billy Hatcher (11) all were in the Top 10 in sacrifices.
The last American League team to actually top 100 sacrifices in a season was the 1982 California Angels, managed by the bunting man himself, Gene Mauch. Tim Foli alone had 26 sacrifice hits that year, and Bob Boone added 23 more. Those Angels won 93 games and won the American League West.
Even though I mostly despise the sacrifice bunt in the American League, and even though I tend to think that giving away that many outs will hurt the Mariners in the long run, I have to admit I like this. It’s bold. One of my key beliefs in sports is that it’s more important to have A PLAN than it is to have A GOOD PLAN. In other words, I think there are many different ways to win if you can get players to follow the blueprint and believe in the direction and execute at a high level. The Seattle Mariners were horrendous last year. Most people — including me — figured they would be horrendous this year. But they have gotten off to a nice start by playing insane outfield defense and getting absurd pitching from Jarrod Washburn and manufacturing runs.
Who am I to say it can’t work for the whole year?
* * *
How my preseason award winners are doing (so far):
American League MVP: Grady Sizemore
Numbers: 259/.386/.603, 5 homers, 14 RBIs, 14 runs, 2 steals.
Thought: Please move him down in the order. Please? Could you? Please please?
American League Cy Young: Zack Greinke
Numbers: 3-0, 0.00 ERA, 26 strikeouts in 20 innings. 5 walks.
Thought: Something exciting might be coming up with Zack. Details to follow.
National League MVP: Carlos Beltran
Numbers: .356/.456/.458, 1 homer, 8 RBIs, 4 runs, 0 stolen bases.
Thought: He’s like the anti-Grady … can we please move him up from fifth in the order? Please?
National League Cy Young: Johan Santana
Numbers: 2-1, 0.46 ERA, 27 strikeouts in 19 innings. 5 walks.
Thought: Already he has lost a game where he went 7 innings and did not give up an earned run. I have pointed this out already, but last year the Mets lost TEN GAMES where Santana had a quality start.
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Let the record show that the last American League team with more than 70 sacrifice bunts in one season was managed by a cocaine addict. ‘Nuff said.
I LOVE that you name the managers for the big sac-bunting teams. It’s like the exact opposite of my biggest sportswriting pet peeve: When an athlete figures prominently in a story — maybe your team just traded for a star, or a superstar and longtime hometown guy has a significant injury — and the story doesn’t list his age.
Ripken should be in the #8 poll. And I think Dayton Moore may share the same philosophy as Brandon Phillips.
Pop quiz hot shot – according to Brandon Phillips, would a sac bunt be more manly than a walk? Both can move the runner over (if there’s a man on 1st), but one makes an out productive…
Joe, in the spirit of the previous post about the importance of the count – which I loved, by the way -, it would be interesting to look at the counts on each of the Royals’ six consecutive innings of double play doom, just to see who is using their so-called “advantage” properly.
I thought the 7th inning double-play that Crisp hit into was 5-3…DeRosa took the grounder at third, stepped on the bag, and threw to first, which made it all the more impressive with Crisp’s speed.
The Royals have only attempted 6 stolen bases in 13 games, and have been successful on just three of those occasions. My first reaction would be to state the “obvious,” and claim that their overall lack of speed is killing the offense – but I don’t think that’s the entire picture.
Coco Crisp (.375 OBP) has two singles and 11 walks. He has one stolen base, and a whopping two attempts. I seriously doubt the lack of attempts is due to a runner always being on second base ahead of him.
Teahen and DeJesus have demonstrated the ability to steal when they’re asked to do so, and to a lesser extent Aviles and Gordon (out of the lineup, obviously). I think the coaching / managing is the real crux of the matter – the team is simply not being nearly as aggressive on the basepaths as they should be. Watch a few Rangers games and see what Ron Washington does with his baserunners. That team’s not loaded with speed, either, but they sure get it done.
A few stolen bases in “key situations” – less than two out, that is – would immediately reduce the number of double-plays; if a runner is on second rather than first, that grounder up the middle will only result in one out, and will likely advance the runner to third. Then, a mere sacfly (gasp!) or another grounder might put a run on the board.
Advice for Trey Hillman?
(1) Run more often.
(2) Run more often. With good pitching and a relatively weak offense, the Royals will be in many low-scoring, one-run games, and need those extra runs wherever they can get them.
(2) Pitch Soria a little more than once every week-and-a-half.
The same people who say that drawing walks isn’t important will watch their pitchers give bases on balls to consecutive hitters and then turn and says “walks’ll kill ya.”
Walks also don’t force the defense to make a play (other than the catcher catching a pitch) to keep the runner from taking second on the catch and throw that follows the single.
Maradona has 7 votes compared to Pele’s 191? (slaps head) Americans are so… uninformed… when it comes to soccer. I’m not saying Pele isn’t better, but the debate is far, far, far closer than that. It’s a 50-50 split anywhere else (except Brazil and Argentina). Down in Argentina they simply refer to Maradona as “God.” Does that communicate the level of awe that surrounds him?
Oh well. It’s a shame more of us don’t embrace the world game a bit more. Just a bit.
It’s important to keep in mind that Cal Ripken, Jr., the last time I checked, totaled something like 4 RCAA over the course of his whole career. A ludicrously high number of RCAP (that is, above positional average), but only 4 RCAA.
I am by no means saying he is not one of the all-time greats, but in terms of contributions to the odds of his team(s) winning, his reputation is greater than perhaps it should be.
That he totaled the enormous number of PA he did is a tribute to his skill and consistency, but over his career his performance in those PA ended up being remarkably average.
That’s his opinion, and that’s his style, and that’s why he had a .312 on-base percentage last year.
I’m not sure that’s the causative path here. I suspect that batting eye (ie. the ability to take a walk) is largely an inherent skill – some players are simply more naturally likely to take a walk than others. So I think the logic path for Phillips here is the other way around: faced with a natural inability to take a walk, he’s forced to rationalize it – albeit with less than stellar logic.
…Down in Argentina they simply refer to Maradona as “God.â€
Well, perhaps it’s a product of his blatant cheat in the 1986 WC (for which he is utterly unrepentant), where he punched the ball into the net (or, according to him, the “hand of God”) to send Argentina past England.
Joe sez: “One of my key beliefs in sports is that it’s more important to have A PLAN than it is to have A GOOD PLAN.”
Interesting concept. I’ve always been interested in what sports tell us about life, and baseball in particular is the sport that is most like life. But, if Joe’s dictum is true, it would be a major way that sports is NOT like life. In life I would say having a good plan is more important than just having a plan, since having a bad plan is potentially much more harmful than having no plan.
To me, the number 8 belongs to one and only one…
23 seasons, one team, 5′11 180 lbs – 3,400 hits, 452 HR’s, 1850 RBI’s, career OPS of 129…
Carl Michael Yastrzemski.
(Kobe Bryant? Please people… What number is on his back now?)
“…Down in Argentina they simply refer to Maradona as “God.â€
Well, perhaps it’s a product of his blatant cheat in the 1986 WC (for which he is utterly unrepentant), where he punched the ball into the net (or, according to him, the “hand of Godâ€) to send Argentina past England.”
Not to mention Maradona nearly killing himself through drugs and cheeseburgers.
Pele, on the other hand, restricted his vices to chasing skirts and shilling for Viagra.
Some Europeans would say that Johan Cruyff was the best ever, and some Brits would say George Best. Pele was a much greater player than Maradona, who had a brilliant peak that lasted about five years and then the cocaine and hookers got to him. The last five years of his career were just pathetic, fat and slow and useless. Peak value high, career value low. Meanwhile, Pele played at the very highest level for fifteen years; he had the longest career of any of the great Brazilians of his time.
Both Maradona and Pele have slightly skanky political pasts, as they allowed themselves to be used by their local dictatorships to fire up support in the form of national spirit, and to distract attention from real problems. Then Maradona went completely the other way and now goes around supporting Castro and Chavez.
Oh, yeah, Tracy’s right. Maradona’s most famous play, his big moment, the equivalent of the “called shot” or the bloody sock or Fisk waving the ball fair or Willie Mays’ catch in the ‘54 series, was blatant cheating, the equivalent of throwing a spitball or using a corked bat or secretly filming your opponents’ practice sessions.
[...] The Bygone Bureau put an intriguing blog post on Around The HornHere’s a quick excerptWell, the Seattle Mariners have NINE sacrifice bunts in 14 games — that would put them on pace for more than 100 sacrifices this season. [...]
More evidence that Gardenhire is overrated.
Cocaine leads to bunting? I’m afraid I’ll need Joe to Google map that one for me.
@Juancho:
I’m sorry to disagree with you, but Maradona’s big moment has to be 3 minutes after the incident you mentioned, when he disbanded half of the English squad in what FIFA has called the Goal of the Century…
I was worried by the title of this post that you were going to be on the horrible show, Around the Horn. Glad you won’t be!
“The weird thing is there are many people who believe that walks are overrated even though baseball’s most basic statistic — batting average — does not even consider walks.”
The truth of the matter is that many people who find walks overrated, do so PRECISELY because BA does not consider walks.
BA has been so ingrained in their thinking that anything which challenges BA as the be-all and end-all is outside the realm of comprehension.
This is just indescribably awesome. You must trust me:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGMPSaEwcek&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fbrooklynmutt%2Etumblr%2Ecom%2F&feature=player_embedded
On the sac bunt:
In past seasons, time after time, we get quotes from Royals officials, managers, or players, about how they have to do the little things right, move runners, etc. etc. to compete.
NO ONE ever asks them THIS QUESTION:
If a player is generally not good at hitting, WHY WOULD HE BE GOOD AT BUNTING, MAKING SITUATIONAL OUTS, OR DRIVING IN A RUNNER FROM 3RD WITH A SAC FLY?
It’s just not logical to think that way, is it? Either the batter is skilled, or he’s not – and that includes every aspect of offense, be it a short sequence skill or a long sequence skill.
Have to agree with Edwin there.
I’ve come up with another comparison on the walk v hit thing.
Bearing in mind that, in terms of outcome, a walk is never *better* than a hit (it is often equally as good as a single and I suppose might be considered better if you’re trying to wear out a starter, but a walk cannot move more baserunners than a single, ever) you could look on a walk as the least good positive outcome of an at-bat.
Now given that, in the same way, a single can never be better than a double, you could see Brandon Phillips’s anti-walk views as being not as manly as a batter saying “I don’t bother with singles – everyone knows that real men clear the bases when they get up to bat, so I’m not going in there looking for anything less than a double. A triple if there’s a fat guy on first.”
So if real men don’t walk, surely *real* men don’t hit singles?
BillP @7:
The only thing DeJesus has demonstrated in the last two seasons is the ability to be caught stealing (or picked off) when asked.
Anthony,
Be happy we even vote for a soccer player, because the vast majority of us, maybe watch it every 4 years for the World Cup. And that’s a big maybe.
I’m not sure many people would say Pele was “much greater.” Maradona’s peak may have been shorter, but it was arguably brighter. Plus, he gets points for taking on a higher level of competition in Europe than did Pele, who played in the very lowly Brazilian leagues all his life (well… there was the US thing… that doesn’t count). Of course, Pele then go on and simply dominate international competition. Regularly.
Look, I’m not saying Maradona’s definitely better, I’m just saying there is more of an argument. And yeah, I’d say Cruyff is in the discussion as well. Best? No thanks. Not even in the same league, in my book.
And Aaron, yes, you’re right. It is cool that the 10 is still a very soccer number and that people would attribute it to a soccer player. I have no idea how to get Americans to enjoy soccer more. I know I didn’t until I watched my then-girlfriend and now wife play alot in college. Now, I follow it with as much passion as any other “American sport.”
Umm…soccer? For me, soccer is about watching a bunch of guys and gals run around for a very long time without any real results. All that work, all that running, all that skill and the game probably ends 1-0 on a series of free kicks.
The walk mindset is about making pitchers work as hard as possible for the outs that are recorded. The harder the pitcher has to work, the less successful he is going to be.
The Royals should run more IF they can do so successfully (at least 70% success rate). If they cannot be successful at running, they shouldn’t run.
I never liked sacrificing an out to move a runner up. But it does work sometimes. The A’s made a game of it with the Yankees last night due to a good sacrifice with men on first and second. But too often, it just gives up an out and makes the pitcher’s job just a little too easy.
A sac fly with the score tied in the bottom of the ninth means that the outfielders were playing too deep. With the score tied in the bottom of the ninth, a runner on third, and less than two outs, the outfielders need to be shallow enough that they can throw out the runner on any ball they can catch.
(OK, I guess you could count the case where the outfielder made a lousy throw, or the catcher dropped the ball, or something.)
You just reminded me that I no longer have to suffer through Coco Crisp’s interminable wiggling at bats ending in a double play….ENJOY!
“Both Maradona and Pele have slightly skanky political pasts, as they allowed themselves to be used by their local dictatorships to fire up support in the form of national spirit, and to distract attention from real problems. Then Maradona went completely the other way and now goes around supporting Castro and Chavez.”
Completely the other way? Aren’t Castro and Chavez also considered dictators?
William (#32) –
Let me remind you of Red Smith’s observation about baseball: it’s only a boring game to boring people. IMHO, same is true of soccer and its non-fans.
And a couple of factual corrections: (1) the average goal count in UEFA Champions League games is a bit over 3, so the avergae score is more likely 2-1 (and probably [where is soccer-reference.com when you need it?] higher in “regular season” games); and (2) a scoreless draw that ended on PKs would be listed as “0-0 (won on penalty kicks)”.
Laurence (#28) –
Brilliant use of reductio ad absurdum. Follow it to its logical conclusion, and Phillips’ argument is that anything less than a HR is for sissies.