Managerial Moves, Part 1
Posted: April 20th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 73 Comments »
One thing that I would like to explore here on the ol’ blog this summer is how baseball managers can affect games. We all know that some pinch-hit more, some are more liberal with the intentional walk, some have strictly defined roles in the bullpen while others will freelance more, some change lineups constantly to take advantage of match-ups while others prefer the consistency of set lineups and so on.
But there are many other things that managers do that will affect a team and the way it plays. It could be something a manager says to the media, or a strategic maneuver that is easy to miss, or the resting of a player that is in a slump, or letting a pitcher throw 120 pitches in a certain situation. It could be many, many things.
Obviously, I am closest to the situation in Kansas City but I would love for you to email me here when you see your own manager make a move that infuriates you or impresses you or utterly baffles you, something that you think went unnoticed.
I’ll start with one:
The Kansas City Royals will start fifth-starter Horacio Ramirez (0-1, 11.12 ERA) on Wednesday against the reigning Cy Young winner Cliff Lee even though the Royals No. 1 starter, Gil Meche, will be on the full four-days rest.
So, some managers will use days off in April so that they don’t have to pitch fifth starters like Horacio Ramirez.
And some managers will use days off in April to give their starters an extra day of rest they don’t need.
Verdict: I have absolutely no earthly idea why the Royals are doing this, and I do not believe there is an explanation good enough. But I’m always open to new ideas.
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Who’s Bert?
Someone needs to include the obligatory “Ron Gardenhire making sure Nick Punto gets at least 450 at-bats a year” gripe.
Clearly resting Meche for the playoffs, right?
One possible explanation: Ramirez hasn’t started a game since the 6-1 loss to the Yankees on April 11th. Bad excuse, yes. Excuse nonetheless.
This is just utterly ridiculous, and a terrible decision. It makes absolutely no sense to give our staff an extra day of rest, this early in the season, to start our 5th starter when we do not need him. Trey must be attempting to take us right out of this first place status we’ve been holding on to, and trust me, Ho-Ram will not give us a chance to win tomorrow. He is actively making the decision to not give our team the best chance to win tomorrow.
Yesterday sure seemed like a fine time to let Soria get 1 out in the 8th, huh? Or to pitch the bottom of the 9th in a tie game?
The part that just kills me is that nearly every MLB manager would not have pitched his closer with the tying run on 2nd, 2 outs, bottom of the eighth, or tie game, bottom of the ninth. The industry-wide mismanagement of bullpens is astounding.
Joe, are you aware of any work done on pitching rotations? Specifically, the benefit of starting your pitchers 1 through 5? Typically teams set up a rotation to have their best pitchers face off, #1 vs. #1, #2 vs #2, etc.
I believe the thinking is “Their #1 guy is going to depress our offense, hold us to 1 or two runs, and we’ll need our best pitcher to do the same to them so we have a shot to win the game” or something along those lines.
What if, and here’s where I’m not aware of any research, you stagger the order, have your #1 go up against their #2 or even #3 starter. Your guy’s ERA (or whatever stat you like, WHIP, ERA+ etc) is significantly better than the competition now, giving your offense a much better chance to score more runs and theirs a much worse chance.
Of course, this sets up your #5 starter to pitch against their #1.
More concisely: Is it better to waste your #1 losing a 1-run 3-hit squeaker than to pitch your #5, lose in a blowout, then have your next 4 pitchers be better (significantly or marginally)than the next four opponent pitchers they will face?
-Tom
Everytime I see a Cecil Cooper lineup card I am baffled. Cooper likes to use Michael Bourn, career .302 obp, in the leadoff spot.
Pretty much every time I hear Hillman speak at some point during the interview I am baffled. I have no knowledge about Japanese baseball fans (in Japan) – only stereotypes of blind obedience to authority figures. Sometimes when I hear Hillman say things it makes me wonder if he believes that Kansas City baseball fans are also like the fans he is accustomed to in Japan. Or maybe he is just a dumba$$… or both.
MM
I heard the Ho Ram decision last night and about drove off the road. Hillman is turning into a certifiable nut. These moves are so bizarre, you almost wonder if Dayton Moore has handed down some goofy edicts. I can forgive the first two Farnsworth losses. Royals are paying a lot of $ and he pitched well in between. However, the third time was no different than committing hari kari. Seriously, did anybody out there doubt what was going to happen? I’m starting to think that Hillman’s reputation must have been made developing players – not managing them. How you do not get arguably your second best pitcher (Soria) into an entire series when he was actually needed is just beyond comprehension. I could go on and on……….
I was gonna post something I read about Beckett, who got his suspension reduced and wouldn’t have to miss a start, taking his turn at the expense of Lester, but the latest I read is that now Lester keeps his spot and Beckett gets an extra day’s rest. So I’m glad I could make a strong contribution here.
Orr over Gehrig might have been a homer’s call, but Red over Secretariat wasn’t. Red was pretty nearly as dominant, and for much longer, if we’re not counting Secretariat’s career at stud, which I’m not qualified to judge.
The Royals are in first place in SPITE of Hillman, not because of him. His mishandling of the pitching staff was the main factor in yesterday’s loss. You have a day off coming up, your All Star reliever has not pitched in over a week and yet he decides to bring in ‘Long Ball’ Farnsworth instead of Soria. Hard to defend that sort of thinking. I am about ready to jump on the ‘Trey Must Go’ band wagon.
The definition of insanity is doing the same over and over, but expecting a different result.
“Someone needs to include the obligatory “Ron Gardenhire making sure Nick Punto gets at least 450 at-bats a year†gripe.”
As a White Sox fan I am not complaining about that.
It’s a tough decision if your fifth starter is somebody like, say, Bartolo Colon. If your fifth guy is HoRam, it shouldn’t take too much thought.
Right, obv if you’ve got the resources to get five #1 and #2 caliber starters (Red Sox come to mind, Rays, anybody else have kick-ass 1-5’s this year?) you can arrange them anyway you want. I’m more interested in the mediocre to poor staffs. Like the Yankees game the other night: lose by 25 runs or lose by 1, it’s still a loss, and maybe you set yourself up to win the next three)
I’m with Tom on this question. I, too, have been wondering about this. How much does it really matter?
On the other hand, we also have to consider the lost starts. That is, if those extra days’ rest lead to one or two fewer starts from the top of the rotation, that has to be factored in. And that means that we’re thinking about 162 games, not some far shorter stretch of 5-20 games.
So, we’d want to know if extra days rest early in the season are associated with fewer missed starts later in the season — for front of the rotation starters, of course.
How about Meche is hurt (he didn’t look real sharp and his velocity dropped ~10mph on his fastball the last inning he pitched???
Joe- You are aware that you’re bitching about a start that’s two days from now with a better than 50% chance of rain for the next 36 hours, right?
Maybe it wasn’t Hillman that did so well in Pacific league. Has anyone tried to look up the translater Hillman used while with the Ham Fighters? Maybe he was the true source of the baseball brilliance Trey seemed to show in Sapporo.
Maybe he is allowing a former Brave to pitch himself out of the rotation. It was probably never his decision to turn over a roster spot to Ramirez in the first place. I don’t think Trey signed Farnsworth or Ramirez but was charged with the responsibilty of utilizing these tools in a game. Dayton Moore has made some brilliant moves but he has also signed some absoulute turds to the squad as well. He’s taking chances and I suppose that makes sense.
Alberto Callaspo has been hitting the ball well, but his play at second has hurt the team. If the royals have any kind of lead after 7 innings that guy needs to sit.
I’m not sure there’s anything smart a manager can do to win games. The best you can hope for is a manager that doesn’t do obviously stupid things.
The only logical explanation I’ve been able to come up with to explain Trey’s managerial moves is that he is a degenerate gambler and some bookie/mobster has him throwing games in order to repay his debts.
No other explanation make sense to me anymore, there is no way he is actually this dumb.
Here is what I don’t understand about the move – why do it against a divisional opponent? These games count double in a way – we can win a game and saddle a rival with a loss, or we can get beat and see the rival get a win.
So if you are looking at the schedule, why not run out H-Ram for the first game against the Rangers, getting the extra day of rest and matching up potentially the two worst starters in the AL, so that you might get a win anyway.
Had it gone Ramirez, Greinke, Meche, we would have been set up for Davies, Ponson, and Meche against the Indians, and then we have Davies going against a divisional opponent.
Putting HoRam in the starting rotation to begin with drove me nuts…he wasn’t good in Spring training. Allowing him to start again, and before he’s absolutely necessary boggles my mind. And of course there’s the bullpen usage yesterday. OK, so he didn’t want Soria to go more than one inning? You’ve still got Tejeda who hadn’t pitched more than 1/3 of an inning in the series who could use some work.
As far as Farnsworth goes, I WANT to give him a chance to succeed. Right now that chance does not appear to be in late innings or close games. Give the guy some chances to pitch early or in blowouts, or both. Let him build up some confidence (and more importantly, let US build up some confidence in him) and THEN, MAYBE bring him back in for the close games. To keep throwing him out there in those tough situations right now seems the height of stupidity to me.
Earl Weaver (among others) said he hated the 5 man rotation because every start by your #5 guy is stolen from the #1 man.
Maybe the Royals are trying to get themselves in a better alignment with the fellow first place Tigers, who they face after the Indians?
I’ve often wondered how the real intellectual and inventive manager feels when he looks across the diamond and sees an absolutely incompetent skipper in the other dugout. What would Dick Williams think or say if he saw Trey Hillman in the other dugout?
“I’m not sure there’s anything smart a manager can do to win games.”
There are dozens, if not more, of ways a manager can do something smart to help win games.
But I wonder how active managers are these days during a game. Are they aligning the defense? Pitching around certain hitters? Trying to steal the opponent’s signs? Calling the running game and defending the opponents’? In-game motivation/instruction/support to players? Working the umpires? Considering the weather, ballpark, etc?
The list can go on and on.
I thought this was crazy, until I looked at the calendar.
Playing Meche Tuesday puts Ponson and Ramirez pitching for the weekend at home.
Playing Ramirez Tuesday means we see Davies and Ponson over the weekend, where attendence means $$$.
To Tom @7…I think the whole idea of who’s your #1, #2, #3 starter etc. is overblown in terms of matchups. After the first few weeks of the season, does your #1 matchup against other #1s any more often than he matches up against #2s? I think the answer to that is almost certainly no. Obviously, on opening day everyone is sending out 1s v. 1s, and for awhile thereafter teams tend to be on the same schedule, resulting in 2s v 2s, etc.
But once the differing off days and rainouts have worked their way in, then whether Johan Santana is facing Tim Lincecum or Barry Zito is pretty much just the random chance of when their days happen to fall. Other than occasionally juggling your rotation to make sure your best pitcher does not miss the 3-game series against your main division or wild card rival, there’s not much managers can do to lineup their pitchers against other particular pichers.
In general, I’m in favor of most teams skipping their 5th starter whenever rainouts and offdays permit 1 through 4 to pitch on normal rest by doing so. If one or more of the guys in your top 4 is someone whose innings you want to limit a bit, or who needs the extra rest, then okay, but otherwise, I think you mostly want to take the opportunity. If you played 162 games with no rain outs and only used 5 guys all season, your top 2 guys would make 33 starts and the other 3 would each make 32.
Over the course of a season, if you skip your 5th starter everytime an off day allowed, you might get to skip him 6 or 7 times that way. So your 5th guy would be at 25 and those 7 starts would be spread equally amongst your other 4. Given the state of most team’s 5th starter, that seems like a good idea. Again, leaving aside other factors. When your #5 starter is Horacio Ramirez, that seems like an even better idea.
But there’s another question to be asked about Horacio and that is this…does he give you a better chance to win ballgames than Hochevar or Banny? There’s no way he does, right? So call one of them up and we don’t even have to have this discussion.
I believe this might be the first time you written a sentence containing the word ‘manager’ in conjunction with the Royals and not mentioned Hillman’s name.
You’ve figured out what some of us knew all along.
He isn’t.
I see us going down a path here that troubles me – it looks to me like we’re being set up to lose three straight games (starting with last night’s gift to the Rangers). It almost seems like Hillman’s so afraid of hurting his good pitchers that he’s keeping them “in the garage,” so to speak. Come on, Trey, the wins are just as important now as they are in August – maybe even more so!
I’m no expert on bullpen management, and even I saw the follow of yesterday’s calls. And then, to set us up for another loss by starting Ramirez when it’s not necessary? Is this guy just stubborn?
We have so many incredible gifts this season. Let’s try not to blow it.
Maybe I’m oversimplifying it but if you don’t expect to win the first game isn’t it better to use your 5th starter instead of your 1st? By having your 1st starter and 2nd starters then face the opponenets 2nd and 3rd starters then maybe you can come out ahead in the series. Lose one to give you a better chance to win two.
I’m sure I’m missing something so please fire away.
comments by “i miss fjm” and “boston royals fan” have abosutely nailed the two best excuses for the ho-ram debacle tomorrow. I think “boston royals fan” ’s thoughts about the interpreter probably cover any future coming soon hillman/rain-man moments.
I heard he is starting Kyle Farnsworth! Bah-doom-boom-crash….
This is not quite on subject but every game I listen to Frank White do commentary, I think of two questions. How is Frank not a major league manager? How would Trey Hillman sound doing commentary? I do not think it would be close to Frank’s. Frank’s comments are instant, insightful, and a joy to listen too. What I would expect of a major leaguer.
to Kevin #36….
I totally agree that Frank White is great on TV. I think it helps a lot that he managed a lot of the team in double A ball. For whatever reason, he may actually know the team better than Trey.
Jason, that’s only a particle analysis of the situation. First, it isn’t limited to just 3 games. What you’re doing is handing 5-6 innings to someone who sucks, when they could easily be replaced by someone who’s actually worth a damn. So, its not just what’s the difference between your starters going 5-1-2 vs 1-2-3 in a 3 game series, its who’s actually getting these innings over the entire season. More good pitchers on the mound over the season, means less runs scored, which means more wins. Maybe this seems like a decent answer in the short term, but in the long term it hurts you. And, if repeated another 7 times, its going to be very significant. If this is repeat over the season, it could give your number 5 starter ~42 additional IP (7 games * 6 IP/game), and the rest of your rotation, primarily your first couple of guys, 42 less IP (then there bullpen issues, #5 starters don’t last as long as #1/2/3s, ie. you’d need your crappy reliever to come in during the 6th vs. a good reliever to come in during the 8th). Think of that as the difference between your worst reliever being replace by a decent reliever. It could be ~2 wins on the average. Of course, individual teams don’t deal with the average, so it could be all 7 or 0.
Meche might not need the rest, but it might be helpful. Pitching is hell on pitchers and the risk of pitching Meche too much early in the season is that you’ll have to start HoRam (or a HoRam-like pitcher) many times later in the season. (Or even that Meche would wear down more quickly and become somewhat ineffective while remaining in the rotation.)
Even if it’s a small chance that you’re going to damage Meche, the price you pay for one additional start by Ramirez isn’t all that much compared to the potential cost of losing Meche for many starts down the road.
Plus, it’s not even guaranteed that this will cost Meche a start. Starting him on Wednesday could only mean the difference between Meche pitching the second-to-last game of the season and the third-to-last game of the season.
“How is Frank not a major league manager?”
This, I think, is one of the great mysteries of the universe….
Someone needs to include the obligatory “Ron Gardenhire making sure Nick Punto gets at least 450 at-bats a year†gripe.
Two points:
1. Nick Punto has only gotten 450+ *plate appearances* twice in the five seasons he’s been a Twin. By comparison, Jason Kubel, whom people seem to think of as being underplayed, has had more ABs (881) and PAs (983) in the past two seasons than Punto has (810/913).
2. Of the two seasons in which Punto has had over 450 PAs, one was his career year of 2006. (.290/725 with an OBP of .352)
I’m far from Nick Punto’s biggest fan, but I have to admit that Gardy’s gotten value from him.
Hillman has flat-out cost his team 2 wins already and they’re only 12 games into the season! Sunday’s defensive substitutions and bullpen use was absolutely atrocious. There is NO defensible reasons for the moves Hillman made in that game. None. Zero. Nada. Complete muck-up!
I have completely lost all confidence in this guy. The Ramirez start is just another in a list that is longer than my arm in only 12 games. Little League managers could do better than this.
Dayton Moore has made some great moves since taking over, a few more good ones, a couple questionable (Ramirez being one) and one total muck-up (Farnsie). Still, Hillman doesn’t need to exacerbate the problem just because Moore had a brain cramp.
Had I been a player, I’d have been furious Sunday – and the Ramirez/Meche decision certainly wouldn’t help me cool off!
There is something going on here behind the scenes. Bannister was limited to 2 innings last night for Omaha so that he could have flexibility if needed in Kansas City as early as Wednesday, per the Omaha paper.
Either someone is nicked up, which I haven’t heard, or my personal belief, Ramirez is pitching for his job.
Ponson, has been pretty good for a 4th or 5th starter–he’s given the team a chance at least. Ramirez has been a disaster. I guess is a poor start by Ramirez is his ticket out and a ticket in for Bannister or Hochevar. And admit it, if Banny or Luke takes Ramirez’ place, the rotation is much improved.
If I’m right (and wouldn’t that amaze my wife) then the only shame is it took us 2 starts to realize Ramirez doesn’t belong in the rotation.
You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia, but only slightly less well-known is this: never sign a pitcher whose best years were in Atlanta.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=5072
(worth clicking on just to see seatle evidently gave him 20 starts at 7.16 era)
if the rain allowed them, the phillies would give their startes 10 days in between starts before skipping somebody’s start. since one guy, hamels, is fragile though he was first or second in the league in innings pitched last year (depending on if you count playoffs) and another guy who just celebrated his 63 birthday in Moyer. So im ok with it.
The only plausible (and by that I mean non-ludicrous) explanation is that Ho-Ram is pitching for his job and will be released or optioned if he’s bad again. I don’t really see why they need to give him the shot, but I guess it wouldn’t be fair to Rammy if we didn’t.
It is NOT too soon to start a fire Trey Hillman movement. By his own admission, he failed last season. He is unconscionably bad through 2 weeks this season. I’m convinced. Trey must go.
The perceived confidence in throwing a fifth starter in the rotation early in the year may be worth three-four wins later in the year. It could be a case of maximizing total wins during the season, not just on a Wednesday in April.
Also, if you throw your first starter it may screw up the rotation and cause the fifth starter to miss a start and whatever ‘groove’ pitchers may acquire, which is more of a case of minimizing losses over the duration of the season.
Any move can be viewed in any number of ways. Very simply a manager’s job is to try and win as many games as possible, and starting your #5 against a #1 directly contradicts that.
Basically I have no idea and there’s no way to come up with a concrete answer, and that’s part of the fun of baseball.
Maybe it’s because in his career, Meche has a .722 winning percentage with a 3.67 ERA on six days rest as compared to a .554 winning percentage and a 4.30 ERA on five days rest.
Ho Ram is just bad not matter how much rest he gets.
Nate
Frank White now!
If he’s horrible (which I doubt) we have a really awkward situation.
He did manage Wichita to a title with Billy Butler and Alex Gordon didn’t he?
This is totally unrelated, but the Posterisk is now popping up everywhere:
http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/archives/2009/04/the-declining-demographics-of-suburbanism.php
Does Matt Yglesias read the JoeBlog?
Hey Joe, it could be worse. Eduardo Villacis could get called up to pitch.
I’m an Orioles fan trapped in Texas. I was at the O’s-Rangers game, happily cheering for the visitors until the 10th inning, as Sherrill tried to give away a 10th inning 7-3 lead (and the managerial mistake was not having Sherrill as the closer — though it could be).
Anyway, the Rangers scored two and had runners on 1st and 2nd with nobody out. Sherrill is a lefty and the next two hitters were both lefties (Hamilton and Blalock). The previous night, Andruw Jones hit a ball that still hasn’t landed and Marlon Byrd was chilling out on the bench. Both are righties. Ron Washington, the Rangers manager, sat on his butt and sent the immortal Hank Blalock out there to hit with one out and in a double play situation with two guys who had the platoon advantage sat on the pine. When Blalock’s name was announced over the PA, I stood up and cheered and got my things ready to go.
Surprisingly, he didn’t hit into a game ending DP. But he did fly out and Cruz went out as well. I felt like Washington gave my team the game. My girlfriend, a devout Rangers fan (yes, they exist), still can’t talk about the game. She hates Washington so much.
I think he may have sealed his fate when he pinch hit for Michael Young against the Royals with the bases loaded this weekend. Her head almost exploded.
I have a personal theory that the problem isn’t managers actually having more than a negligible effect on individual games. The problem is that managers BELIEVE they have more than a negligible effect on individual games. Because of this they over-think their decisions and then get upset when they get called out by fans or members of the media.
The media has spent a century building up the baseball manager, and later the head coaches in the other sports, as someone who has an almost supernatural power to control player performances and the outcome of games. Part of this comes from the press given to real innovative managers like John McGraw and Casey Stengal and Earl Weaver and Tony LaRussa, who create new theories and ideas about how to create a lineup or manage a roster or control a clubhouse. However, most managers aren’t like that.
That media coverage not only creates a false sense of power, but also a fear of risk. Once teams start having success with a certain method, a manager becomes afraid of doing something different. Other teams are using their best reliever as a one-inning, three-run lead guy, and you are afraid about overusing your guy there. Other teams feel it is OK to give 500 at-bats to a black hole, and you consider hiring an astrophysicist as your hitting coach.
This is starting to turn into a criticism of the media in addition to the managers, which though accurate isn’t where I want it to go. I’m just saying that we’re at a point where the years of everyone putting so much on the managers have had a negative impact on the sport. I’m not sure we can change that at this point, either.
did i just see people voting for someone other than Bobby Orr for #4?
l.g. was great, but he was no Bobby Orr.
wow. i’m about to go on an Iverson-like rant about Bobby Orr…
Our big three have had three whole starts. I can imagine they are exhausted at this point in the season. It’s that or, as Rany said, Hillman is as dumb as a barnyard animal.
I don’t think I’ll be over Sunday by the time Wednesday comes.
Wow the negativity here can suck the life outta someone. I mean, you all know the Royals are 7-5 and on a pace to win 90, right? So we should fire the manager now (heard that on 810 as well from a caller)? That would be insane at the level of firing Hal McRae after a long winning streak.
That being said, I’d have started Meche as well, but most every team should only be using 4 starters when practical.
And I don’t know if I would have used Soria in the 8th, but I certainly would have in a 9th inning tie in that situation. He was well rested and there was an off day coming. Soria would have been good for two innings.
But mistakes happen. And in baseball, a team can lose 70 games and still be considered a success. Let some more baseball play out, then decide fates.
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“mean, you all know the Royals are 7-5 and on a pace to win 90, right?”
LOL. On “pace” to win 90 after 12 games? Imagine if they had pulled out the two games Joe’s been talking about the past few days. They’d have been on a pace to win 121.5 games! OMG!
Hey, in 2003 they were on pace to win 162 games after 9 games.
Sorry guys, but Joe didn’t invent the asterisk as an aside. It isn’t a posterisk. It’s been around for a very long time.
And the fact that George Brett isn’t currently the top #5 in that poll is horrendous.
Dayton! Don’t you worry Captain, I will reinvent the wheel!
I think the point about 5-1-2-3-4 causing your #5 pitcher to get too many starts over the course of the season may be valid, but, what I’m really looking for, is some actual analysis, and not just some well-reasoned arguments. Does anybody have the numbers?
No Joe, NOTHING the Royals are doing with their entire pitching staff/plan makes a bit of sense… Sometimes doing NOTHING is a great thing.
Hopefully this is all Hillman’s idea, cause we can get rid of him.
a parallel
For most of my life I have been taught the the guys wearing ties were geniuses with money and that I should trust them with mine.
I was told young that the guys “managing” a ball club were better informed than I and that I should trust them to run their team. I learned soon from the same men that the guys “managing” our teams often are not to be trusted, that they often make unexplainable mistakes of judgment, game time decisions that make no sense at the time or upon reflection. Managers, bankers, and Bud Selig are not to be trusted. The crime is that when the bankers fail I am not surprised, when the Hillmans of the world fail I am heartbroken. Maybe one day I will grow up and give my heart to a woman who won’t break it.
Kuiper was part of my youth at the ‘Stick, the Hac-Man was a prince, and as long as Butler hit, I cared not that he thumped his bible so loudly. It is the passion I give the game that is my crime, my punishment is the idiots who get to live my dreams of making poor, mind numbingly crippling decisions.
gonna leave it there, maybe post another day
all hail Joe
I sure as heck didn’t think it through as much as y’all. This, to me, is the baseball equivalent of a tennis player throwing a game in a set once he is down and returning serve. The returning player will try to win the first point or the second but, once down love-30 to an overpowering serve, he’ll just sort of wave at the last two serves, get it over with, and get back to his own serve. Sometimes, once down a couple of breaks, you’ll see them throw a whole set, just to avoid expending energy, and try to win the next one. I just figured Ramirez starting was a white flag to their pitcher. It’s a punt. Why burn a chance to win a game (i.e. Meche’s start) against Lee when I could save him a day and put that chance to win against a lesser pitcher? I think Trey is managing as though the 5th starter is a loss…might as well spend that loss on a night when you’d likely lose anyway because of their pitcher. Plus, as was mentioned above, it sets up Greinke to start on what looks to be a spectacular Friday night at the K. $ellout!
Fans always want the team to make the moves that give the team the best chance of winning the next game. But managers have to look at the season as a whole. Hillman’s probably trying to not overpitch his best pitchers in April, so they will be less likely to be injured or ineffective later in the year. It’s a long season, and it’s still April. I’m sure the Royals don’t want Meche or Grienke throwing 250 innings this year, and want to protect their investment in those pitchers.
Fans want to win the next game, no matter what. Especially if they bought tickets to go see that game. And that’s their right. But the manager can’t manage his team like that all year, the players will break down, especially the pitching staff. It’s a huge part of his responsibility to protect the best pitchers arms as much as possible.
Maybe Hillman really is an idiot, but managers also know their players and what’s going on with them way more than us people on the outside do. And their explanations for their moves shouldn’t be given any weight whatsoever. What’s the manager supposed to say, “we pushed back one guy because he’s got a little tender arm and he’s not real tough compared to the other pitchers, so we’re worried about him holding up strong all year”? Or how about “we don’t want Joe Blow pitching in Detroit because his mistress lives there and he’ll never get a good night’s sleep or be able to concentrate if he’s within 100 miles of that town”?
It’s easy to call managers dumb without knowing what’s really going on, but I’m pretty skeptical of fans who think they know it all bashing the manager every time he does something they don’t like. Sometimes a manager does do something dumb, but there are plenty of times that he’s called an idiot when there’s a good reason for his decision that the fans don’t know and can’t know.
BTW, this whole discussion is now outdated. A fan fav (and Joe fav) was called up to start Wednesday’s game.
Let’s go Banny.
What always gets me (regardless of the manager, although Hillman pulled this with the rationale for not pitching Soria in a tie game on the road) is when managers talk about playing the percentages. I always want to ask: “Ok then, what were they?”
It’s not a purely adversarial question, either. From reading Weaver’s book, I think he could actually tell you the percentages he was chasing for any given move. I kind of wish Hillman would just take a copy of The Book into the dugout with him and look these situations up as they occur. Then he could play the percentages by actually looking up the percentages and making a choice based on that.
The Mariners are bunting like maniacs this year. (on pace for 191 bunts).
More detail can be found here:
http://ussmariner.com/2009/04/18/wakamatsu-likes-to-bunt/
I realize I’m late to the response, and with Bannister coming up it’s all moot, but I can see one good reason for starting HoRam on Tuesday even if everybody is healthy. Just look at pitchers on the DL. Right now, Kuroda is on the DL for the Dodgers. They’ve announced that he’s been out long enough that before he comes back he’ll need a minor league rehab assignment. Well, I suspect that HoRam was approaching that much time off. Maybe Hillman should have been using him instead of Farnsworth now and then, just to help him stay sharp. But if you’re on the verge of having to send a #5 down for a tuneup start, starting him to keep him in the majors does make sense.
Of course, what makes more sense is what Torre has done with the Dodgers this year. Kuroda, the opening day starter, went on the DL. James McDonald pitched lousy his. So Torre replaced Kuroda with Eric Stults, who pitched well, and then with an off day helping out, replaced McDonald with Stults again. But he used McDonald in relief in a blowout for an inning, to help McDonald get some confidence back, and then started McDonald on a short leash, pulling him with a 4-0 lead but allowing him to keep the confidence of 4+ scoreless innings. So not only is Torre helping the Dodgers win, he’s also using all his pitchers and in spots where it is appropriate.
And Torre also used Broxton, the closer, with one day of rest, for 1 2/3 innings against the Rockies on 4/17. Broxton got the long save, and then the team scored a lot of runs the next two days and had an off day yesterday, so Broxton’s next outing will be with at least three days of rest. I’ve gotta say, that seems to be to be a smarter use of a closer than what Hillman is doing with Soria. Broxton’s on a pace to throw 83 innings, which isn’t too many for a relief ace. Soria’s on a pace to throw 54 innings. Assuming your ace is probably one of your best four pitchers, would you rather have him throw 54 innings for the year, or 83?
Who would you rather have as your manager, Cecil Cooper or Trey Hillman? “Neither” is not an option.
“Two days after the Royals made him the second overall pick in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft, [Joakim] Soria pitched a perfect game in the Mexican Pacific League on Saturday night as the Yaquis de Obregon blanked the Naranjeros de Hermosillo, 6-0.
Soria already was dominating the winter circuit, leading all three pitching triple crown categories (9-0, 1.77 ERA, 73 strikeouts). But the 22-year-old right-hander struck out nine and threw 101 pitches to remain unbeaten.”
That was only two years ago. He was the most dominating starting pitcher in the league.
And now everyone is afraid to overextend him by forcing his poor fragile arm to throw more than one inning?
For crying out loud, put him in the friggin’ rotation already. Putting him in the bullpen was stupid enough. Putting him in the bullpen and barely using him is unconscionable.
It pains me to say this, but Punto hasn’t been half bad this season.
Circle me Bert!