Sunday Night Thought of the Week
Posted: April 19th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 52 Comments »
I could take this moment to, once again, marvel at the remarkable character that is Kansas City Royals reliever Kyle Farnsworth.
A week ago, with the Royals losing soundly to the New York Yankees, Farnsworth stomped into the game, unleashed his 100-mph fastball, struck out Damon, Teixeira, Matsui — left all of them swinging helplessly at his ungodly stuff — a commanding performance that inspired a crusty baseball man to say with wonder: “No one else in the world could do that.” Sunday, with the score tied in the ninth, that same Kyle Farnsworth came into the game, and on his second pitch he unleashed a 96-mph fastball that Michael Young hit so far that Royals left fielder David DeJesus did not even chase it to the wall. DeJesus instead took two or three steps back and then, like a golfer who realizes he will never find his ball in the jungle, turned back toward and let the cheering crowd fill him in on the details. The walk-off home run tagged Farnsworth with three losses in less than two weeks, which is telling when you consider that the Royals whole team only has five losses. And this time it was not a baseball man, but instead Royals fans all over the country, who were left muttering: “No one else in the world could do that.”
As I Twittered in the seconds after the game ended: If William Shakespeare was alive and a sportswriter — two plausible possibilities — he would never tire of writing about Kyle Farnsworth.
But no, I’m not going to write about Farnsworth today. There’s a whole season for that. I’m also not going to write about my new favorite Kansas City Royals everyday player, Mike Jacobs, who had what I have to believe is a perfect Mike Jacobs day: He crushed an opposite field home run that sailed and sailed, he also struck out, and he spectacularly botched a sluggish ground ball in the eighth inning — first fumbling it, then seeming to lose it under his car seat*, then making an ill-advised throw to no one in particular. His runner would tie the game. Mike Jacobs giveth, and he taketh away, and he makes it all interesting.
*Yes, I’m already previewing what an infomercial blog post coming soon!
I’m not even going to write about Royals manager Trey Hillman … well, not entirely. I think it’s fair to say that Trey has not yet figured out how he will use the bullpen — and that’s probably not a good thing since, as far as I can tell, these games count in the standings. I remember Bill James wrote that it really would make sense for every big league manager to spend time simulating hundreds and hundreds of baseball games on a computer. People took that wrong; Bill was not saying that managers could LEARN about their teams from playing these simulations. What he was saying by playing these games again and again, some parts of the game would become second nature — he was saying they should simulate baseball games for the same reason that astronauts simulate and race car drivers and pilots and so on. I suspect if Trey had done that, he would not have left Kyle Farnsworth in on Opening Day to face Jim Thome when he had a fresh lefty in the bullpen. I suspect if Trey had done that, he would not have used a fresh bullpen in the odd way he used it Sunday.
But no, my point is not to go over the details of Sunday’s loss, but to get to a different point: The Royals led 5-3 going into the eighth inning. They still led 5-4 with one out. They led 5-4 with two outs. And their star closer — the guy who might just be the best closer in baseball — had not pitched in SIX DAYS. OK? This was Sunday afternoon, and Joakim Soria had not pitched since the previous Monday. That’s awful no matter what — you don’t leave any pitcher out for six days, much less your dominant closer. And on top of this, the Royals had a DAY OFF coming. OK? Are you with me here? Six days off coming in. One day off coming out.
So, it’s fair to say that you will never, ever have a better time to bring in your closer to try and get four or five outs. Never. Soria had not pitched in almost a week. The team was going into a day off. It was a beautiful afternoon. The Royals were in first place and going for a sweep. This was absolutely, positively the perfect time to stretch out Joakim Soria. If you are not going to do it in this spot, then you are basically saying that you will never do it.
Well, of course, you know that the Royals did not bring Soria into the game in the eighth inning. Hillman said he did not want Soria to pitch more than an inning. He said — and I am not making this up — that he did not think that would be right considering that Soria had not pitched much lately. So it goes.
But, again, I’m not really writing about Trey Hillman: The Royals are off to a pretty nice start, and they are doing some good things, and he gets credit for that. If they can keep it going, then Hillman will have a real shot at being named manager of the year — like Tony Pena was in 2003.
No, my point is this: I have written quite a lot about what the Royals should do with Joakim Soria, but I haven’t really written a hard opinion on it. There’s a reason for this: I can really see both sides of the argument — I can see why some people think he should become a starter where he would be more valuable, and I can see why some people think he should be a closer where he has proven to be dominant. If you want to know the truth, I personally am on the side of making him a starter, but I have very good friends and baseball people whose opinion I respect more than my own give me solid-sounding reasons why he should stay a closer. When he shut the door last week against the Yankees, I wrote a column saying that on days like that you can certainly see the closer side of the argument. It’s nice to close out victories.
BUT … on days like Sunday, the starter argument jumps hard, and suddenly I can’t keep still on this. What’s the point of keeping this brilliant young pitcher in the bullpen if you are NOT GOING TO PITCH HIM? What’s the point of using Joakim Soria, with his three great pitches and zen-like calm, as a stinking, pitiful, plain old, start-the-ninth-if-up-by-1- 2-3-runs closer? What’s the point of being afraid to throw your best pitcher more than one inning or in a tie game?
Here is the starter argument to me: The Royals have never pushed to see what they have with Joakim Soria. They have gratefully taken his 1-2-3 ninth innings because those have been so rare in recent years. But they don’t know what he could be … and they seem too scared to find out.
Yes, I have been on the side of starting, but I’ve never been militant about it, I fully understand the argument to keep him in the bullpen. The Royals have not had much go right the last decade or more. They don’t want to screw this up. I get it.
But I don’t get this. I just don’t. Leaving Soria in the pen on Sunday to me was an affront — Joakim Soria was a gift. If you don’t pitch him, you are wasting that gift. And wasting gifts — that’s about the most frustrating thing in sports. Life too.
Loading ...
I agree 100%. I think that the best place for Soria is in the closer’s role, but that does NOT just mean he should be thrown out there in the ninth inning with a 1, 2, or 3 run lead. He is our best pitcher, so he should be used in the most difficult spots. I don’t know what the rationale is for not bringing him in in the eighth once Mahay got in trouble; perhaps Trey Hillman doesn’t want Soria to get a cheap blown save and hurt his stats.
Anyways, the main point is, with Soria in the pen, there is ABSOLUTELY no reason that the Royals should lose any games with a two run lead in the eighth inning. You don’t necessarily have to bring in Soria to start the eighth, but once the pitcher gets in trouble, go ahead and bring him in. No point in keeping our best weapon out of the action.
I often think that managers (and Management) know more about their players than I do. But this seems more obvious than most other decisions.
Soria as closer is the one clear cut advantage we have over every other team in the division, which leaves me okay with the idea of keeping him in the pen in a perfect situation.
Unfortunately, the manager doesn’t understand when to get him in the game. And so unless the manager is going to change – which he isn’t – since the manager is going to use him poorly, we may as well get the value from him being a starter, where at least he would be given the ball every fifth day and the manager would be out of the way.
If the Royals were destined to suck this year, this would be tolerable in a way. But for the first time in G-d knows how long, we could be competitive, and this crap is snuffing out the baby in the crib.
I had TiVO’d the game today, and came home with my brother to watch the end, and as soon as I saw Farnsworth walk in, I hit the fast forward and told my brother to tell me which guy hit the homerun to win it. I am no prophet and no genius; it was just that predictable.
“If they can keep it going, then Hillman will have a real shot at being named manager of the year — like Tony Pena was in 2003.”
I’m becoming convinced that if the unbelievable were to happen, and the Royals could keep this up all year, then Hillman would be manager of the year EXACTLY like Pena was — through pure luck.
This whole “not pitching our best pitchers in the toughest situations” thing is screaming for Soria as starter. If Trey Hillman wants to use Soria that way (or not use him), then he should be forced to use Soria as a starter.
And to harp on this some more, our best reliever right now is Juan Cruz. The guy is completely unhittable. And yet Hillman pulled him for the mediocre Ron “not a lefty specialist” Mahay, for a lefty-lefty matchup with 2 outs in the 7th.
I hated Buddy Bell, but Trey Hillman is worse, and yet the fact remains that this team is quite possibly capable of winning enough in the regular season that he looks good to people that don’t pay attention to us. God help us all. You can’t get rid of a manager that wins Manager of the Year.
I’m tired and angry, and I’m sure I don’t make sense, but Trey has cost 3 games this year (Farnsy is 0-3), and his decision to put Horacio Ramirez in the rotation should probably count another loss against him. And did I mention that Ramirez is getting an extra start this week, so the starters can have an extra day of rest? REALLY! Meche, Greinke, Davies are a combined 7-2 (should be 8-1, or even 9-0, no thanks to Farnsy), and we’re going to throw a bone to a guy that can’t get my mom out! Good idea Trey! Maybe you should quit now, because these decisions you are making seem like you are INTENTIONALLY throwing the games.
Joe, this is a sweet elixir for my soul. After reading this post, I no longer want to angrily berate Trey Hillman until he weeps. One or two tears of remorse would be nice though…
make joakim the closer/manager.
I think the populist rage is really spot on here…
If Trey Hillman refuses to use his best pitcher in the most important situations, then said pitcher needs to be taken out of reach of his peculiar whims and placed in the rotation.
This is, of course, presuming that Dayton Moore finds his usage similarly egregious.
I think it is fair to presume that he does not…so we’re stuck.
Color me frustrated (I believe its a shade of red).
I was out shopping today, listening to Bob and Steve Stewart (does Denny just really hate Dallas? I don’t remember him going last season either) between stores, and I have text alerts w/each scoring play…There was quite a gap and then I heard the little beep of my phone, and I knew, I just KNEW that Kyle Farnsworth had pitched instead of Soria. 5 seconds later, my entire night was ruined because of poor decision making and Kyle Farnsworth. I remember listening to Bob McClure on 810 from Surprise and after hearing him talk, I was okay with Soria staying in the pen. He basically said that the team had waited too late, and Soria was too good as a closer to move him back, and with the 3 starters at the top of the rotation, having a reliable guy at the end of games would be imperative, because he knew the history here, this team had a chance to do some damage in the next couple of years, and he’s too dominant in that role to try to make something else out of him. That interview was the spark that got me really excited for this season and thinking that maybe things really would be different…finally someone got it, that this franchise has turned a corner. Yes, it may be another example of the Royals trying to cut corners and steps, but this one just feels different. They aren’t rushing into something, they aren’t throwing this guy into a role he wasn’t ready or capable for (although they did do that with him originally, this is essentially Soria’s third full season as the closer) but at this point I feel that it’s almost the easy way out to try to stretch him out into a starter. Yes, it would be nice to have that third or fourth starter. You can do a lot of things with a rotation like that. But too many times, we’ve heard that “Oh, it’s easy to put together a bullpen.” “Closers are a dime a dozen” You know what though, here’s a list since the beginning of the decade:
2000: 29/55 53%
2001: 30/50 60%
2002: 30/54 56%
2003: 36/65 55% (And that’s with MacDougal making ASG)
2004: 25/47 53%
2005: 25/43 58%
2006: 35/66 53% (Burgos:18/30 and I was mad at the trade)
2007: 36/54 67% (Dotel:11/14 and traded for Davies, Soria:17/21)
2008: 44/60 73% (Soria:42/45, everyone else 2/15)
2009: 4/5 so far and we all know who’s got the blown save
I know it’s not a perfect list, and most of these teams were terrible anyway, but at least 10 of those blown saves per year could have easily been wins. It may be easy to build a bullpen for some, it may be easy to manage and use a bullpen for some, but if you don’t, you’ll lose games and you’ll get fired very easily. I’m afraid Hillman either just doesn’t get that or doesn’t care and I’m disappointed in that.
Sorry, my list is saves in save opportunities w/percentage listed. For the record, I didn’t add in today’s game, Wright got the blown save, and oddly enough if you do the math, that was the 500th save opportunity in the decade for the Royals.
2000’s (so far): 294/500 58%
Soria has 21.4% of the saves in 14% of the save opportunities. I know I’m probably thinking more with my heart, but I don’t know that he can be that much more effective when at best, he’d be the second starter handing off to a much shakier bullpen without him.
NYY since 2000: 426/577 74%
AL since 2000: 66.5%
I’ve drawn my bath, sharpened my straight-edged razor, and put on some Mozart. One more gross mismanagement of the bullpen like this, and I’m hopping in.
I bet Hillman is the same guy that buys plastic covers for his couch, and drives his old piece of crap car because he doesn’t want to put miles on his new BMW. We ought to use those things which we have paid for to bring us joy.
I wrote about this game, and in a real nerdy way, as if the Royals and Rangers were armies and they each had their champions sort of like the movie Troy. While the Rangers sent out their closer/champion for the ninth, we sent out a washed up man who wasn’t good enough and we all knew it, while our champion looked on as he was killed.
If that wasn’t nerdy enough for you, here’s how I felt at that exact moment. It’s like the first episode of Firefly (if you haven’t seen it, you should) where Mal feels they can win the battle and the airships are coming. Except the decision from high was to lay down arms. Putting Farnsworth into that game was laying down our arms. When Kyle Farnsworth came into the game, I, and every knowledgeable fan, felt what Mal did: utterly betrayed and horrified to see us again rip defeat from the jaws of victory.
And yes I’ve been a KC sports fan long enough that that cliche is permanently reversed.
“The walk-off home run tagged Farnsworth with three losses in less than two weeks, which is telling when you consider that the Royals whole team only has five losses.”
You may have seen that the last time a pitcher did that trick (3 of his team’s first 5 losses) was in April 1998, when Bob Wickman lost the Brewers’ first three losses in their National League history.
Then, for the rest of the year, Wickman was 6-6, with 25 saves…sometimes a small sample size is smaller than it looks. Sometimes.
I am not as upset with sitting Soria as with wasting Cruz in the 7th for 2 outs. That guy is electric and you he gets 2 outs?
When Hillman pulled Cruz early, I didn’t get it, but I wouldn’t say I was mad. When he didn’t bring Soria into the game with two outs in the eighth, I also didn’t get it, but I self-mollified by saying, “At least it’s not Farnsworth”. Then the ninth came and the aforementioned Farnsworth entered the game, and I was officially mad. I told my wife at the time that it was like seeing a little kid about to stick his finger in a light socket and being too far away to do anything about it. You know something horrible is about to happen, yet you’re powerless.
Okay, all of that was terrible and avoidable and so on. But what absolutely enraged me was Hillman’s explanation after the game, the one Joe notes above. He hasn’t used Soria much lately, ergo he couldn’t use Soria much yesterday. And since he couldn’t bring himself to use Soria at all yesterday, and today’s an off day, it means, by this logic, that he won’t be able to use Soria much on Tuesday, if at all. And so on and so on. Essentially he’s saying “the less I use him, the less I can use him.” Is he even aware of the fact that the logical conclusion to be drawn from his idiotic explanation is that he can NEVER use his best pitcher?
I agree that Soria should be converted into a starter, my question is when?
The season has begun, you’ve got a lights-out closer, and although it’s early it looks like you might actually contend. How do you try to convert him now?
I think that unfortunately you’re already boxed in for this season and you’ve got to play it out with Soria in this role.
Farnsworth is just channeling Ron Davis, the Twins’ closer (usually in the other side’s favor) of the mid-’80s.
Who’s the Royals’ pitching coach? Does Hillman consult him like Gardenhire does Rick Anderson?
Hillman:Soria :: Gardenhire:Nathan
Nothing Gardenhire does frustrates me as much as his non-use of Nathan, who is, after all, the best pitcher on the team, which makes it somewhat annoying that he has the least IP of any current pitcher who was on the opening day roster.
I agree, I thought they should have brought Soria in with 1 out in the 8th. I don’t understand Hillman’s use of him at all. When things are falling apart late in the game, bring in your best pitcher! I am seriously starting to doubt Hillman’s ability to manage in the majors.
[...] Popular subject. Joe weighs in. And Rany as [...]
I cannot criticize Hillman too much. Unfortunately, he is acting like most managers nowadays. The thought is “gotta save that closer for save situations” and I think also probably this thought runs through their minds too “if I extend my closer today, omg, I won’t have available tomorrow and then it will be the perfect save situation and I have to use someone else”.
ARGH!!! That is just so wrong headed. The old chestnut “don’t put off til tomorrow what you can do today” applies to baseball too. Win today’s game. Don’t worry about tomorrow’s game until tomorrow.
If the Royals would use Soria as a Relief Ace (ala Sutter, Fingers, Gossage, the Quiz) and pitch him 100+ innings/year, then I have no problem with him being in the bullpen. But a closer? Last year he had 67 innings, which is actually pretty high for a closer (and therefore commendable) but there is no reason he cannot be at 100 to 110 innings in about 65 games.
And I would preach this message to all the wrong headed managers out there who are misusing their best relief pitchers.
Of course, the other half of this equation is if you have your best relievers pitching more innings, then your worst ones don’t have to see the field as often, even to the point that you don’t need that 12th guy (whose name makes every home town fan cringe, just as I did yesterday when Farnsworth came into the game)
And an added bonus to only carrying 11 pitchers is that you get an extra player to your bench, which also will improve your team.
I was enjoying yesterday’s game. Nice broadcast. A scrap filled 5-3 lead with fearful visions of a Farnsworth appearance. I actually turned the game off when the call to the bullpen went Kyle’s way. My logic was simple…….I just could not watch him do it again…..and if he pulled off the appearance then I would be happily, pleasantly surprised. Oh well….such is the life of a Royals fan
Can you imagine the outrage in New York if Girardi eschewed the use of Rivera in a close game in the 8th inning? I hope that the rage in KC reaches that same level over the bullpen misuse, although it won’t receive any national attention.
In all likelihood, Hillman already cost the Royals at least two games. For a team with playoff aspirations that has no room for error, that is crippling. His misuse of Soria, even within the context of modern closer usage, is criminal.
I’m still speechless about yesterday’s debacle. It’s not even remotely sensible.
Trey Hillman will eventually figure out how to use his bullpen. Unfortunately for KC, he’ll do this in his next job (or the one after that), as the skipper at Arlington.
The most remarkable thing about yesterday’s game wasn’t that the Royals lost it or even how they lost it. It was that everyone knew what was coming as soon as Cruz was pulled with two outs in the 7th. I was wrong; I expected Farnsworth would cough up the lead in the 8th, so using him in a tie game in the 9th was a swell new wrinkle.
Justin A.,
Your list includes “saves” blown in innings earlier than the 9th. The closer could not have helped you there. Also, it includes games saved by people other than our closer because of injury or the closer being unavailable. Why is it only the ROYALS closer has sucked so bad since 2000? What’s that you say? We put substandard teams on the field every year for as cheap as possible, consequences be damned? Oh yes, that’s right! But closers are still a dime a dozen!
CLOSERS
2000 – Ricky Bottalico 16/23 = 70%
2001 – Roberto Hernandez 28/34 = 82%
2002 – Roberto Hernandez 26/33 = 79%
2003 – Mike MacDougal 27/35 = 77%
2004 – Jeremy Affeldt 13/17 = 76%
2005 – Mike MacDougal 21/25 = 85%
2006 – Joe Nelson 9/10 = 90%
and Ambiorix Burgos 18/30 =60%
2007 – Octavio Dotel 11/14 = 79%
and Joakim Soria 17/21 = 81%
2008 – Soria 42/45 = 93%
EVERYBODY ELSE IN THE BULLPEN
2000: 13/32 41%
2001: 2/16 13%
2002: 4/21 19%
2003: 9/30 30%
2004: 12/30 40%
2005: 4/18 22%
2006: 8/26 31%
2007: 8/19 42%
2008: 2/15 13%
The “everybody else in the bullpen” does count some legit save opportunities, but for the most part, these were 7th or 8th inning blown saves because the Royals bullpen was sooo bad. We couldn’t get to our closer fast enough. So those of you calling for Soria to stay a closer because our closers have been so bad in the past, well it just isn’t true. Our closers have been around MLB average, or just under it. I can’t find the stat, but I thought I read somewhere that average was between 75-80%, feel free to correct that if it is wrong. The only truly awful closer we’ve had is Burgos.
In conclusion? Average closers can be found in lots of places. Joe Nelson saved 9/10 for us! Soria is an elite closer, I won’t argue there. But if he starts 32 games a year and the Royals win 20/32 (Soria doesn’t get all 20 wins necessarily), he’s likely helping the team more because we didn’t have to throw a guy like Horacio Ramirez. Our bullpen MINUS FARNSWORTH is good enough to excel without Soria. Cruz can close, he’s been unhittable so far this year.
Honestly, I’m fine as long as Soria is pitching, I don’t care about the role. But it seems like the Keep Soria the Closer movement is a knee jerk to past Royals bullpens that couldn’t get the game to the closers, because when you look at the actual numbers of the closers, they weren’t as bad as I remembered.
I know everyone wants to talk about small sample size however, has a cub fan FOREVER this is the same guy who partied his way out of wrigley, (I was hopeing the lack of KC nightlife might turn him around). Strap yourselves in royal fans you ain’t seen nothin yet from “The Farns”
To steal a phrase from the great 21st Century philosopher Herm Edwards …
“YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!!!!!”
Hillman had the perfect opportunity to make a move that would provide his team the best chance of winning yesterday’s game and he simply refused to make it. The fact that Farnsworth was the ultimate goat just compounded Hillman’s initial mistake. If you’re not going to stretch and use Soria in the eighth yesterday, then you are never going to use him in any situation other than the ninth, with a lead, blah, blah, blah.
Trey is quickly wearing out his welcome with me.
Someone ought to rip up or rewrite Hillman’s copy of ‘the book’ on managing. Joe, maybe you could have him investigated to see if he’s placing bets against his own team. Some of these managers act as if there is a rule stating that pitchers that are designated as ‘closers’ cannot enter a game unless there are only 3 or less outs remaining and you have a lead of 3 runs or less. You wonder if someday they’ll save their best hitter for a situation when the bases are full and your team’s behind in the 7th inning or later.
Yeah, I know, but I still feel the need to pick on the Mahay move. Didn’t we endure Hillman going on after opening day about how Mahay was “not a lefty specialist”? Then why, for the love of all that is holy and good in baseball, did Hillman insist on using Mahay as a lefty specialist yesterday? Or, if the reverse is true, why didn’t Hillman use Mahay against Thome on opening day?
Or if one was going to use the bullpen so gingerly, why not send out Wright in the seventh, and have Cruz ready if Wright can’t hack it? Hasn’t Cruz already established he can go two innings? Obviously he was scared to use Farnsworth in the eighth, choosing Wright instead; how did Farnsworth suddenly become a superior option to Soria for the ninth? Frankly after the battle that Kyle Davies put up to get through six and leave with a lead (would you have thought that possible after the first inning?), I would not have been surprised to read that Davies had choked Hillman to death with his bare hands after the game.
When these screwups are your prelude, you know the game is going to find its way to Farnsworth somehow.
Hillman’s refusal to use Soria in the 8th inning was so obviously misguided that it’s hardly even worth posting the relevant stats — but here are some stats, anyway:
1. Soria has pitched more than 1 inning 24 times in his MLB career (2 innings 11 times, 1.2 innings twice, and 1.1 innings 11 times). Combined totals for those 24 games: 40 IP, 10 runs (all earned), 2.25 ERA, 26 hits, 8 walks, 44 strikeouts.
2. Soria has pitched with 4 or more days rest 22 times; only once has he allowed any runs. Combined totals: 21.1 IP, 3 runs (all earned), 1.27 ERA, 11 hits, 12 walks, 25 Ks.
3. On August 10 last year, Soria pitched 2 innings on 5 days’ rest; he was near-perfect, allowing one hit and no walks, with four Ks, and the Royals won the game in 12 innings.
And yet, while it’s fair to fault Hillman for this decision, he was just “going by the book”; the vast majority of MLB managers would have done the same thing.
I’m with Mikey here. A starter is more valuable than a closer, and its not particularly close given the way managers uses closers. So, the natural conclussion is you have to try a guy as a starter first, and scale him back to closer/reliever if he can’t hack it for any number of reasons. But you can’t really go from closer to starter midseason. At this point you’d have to live with Soria pitching ~3 innings for a few weeks, slowly working up to ~5, and maybe never consitantly being able to go 6-7. So a closer all year stands a pretty good chance of being more valuable than the starter trying to build up his endurence. Then, the Royals are going to be pressured to pitch him longer too early, which will only increase his chances of injury. So you’re stuck. For better or worse, Soria is a closer this year.
Also, with Cruz and Soria, it would be fairly easy for Hillman to make only a slight behavoiral change and still put a great pitcher on the mound in high leverage spots. And even if he doesn’t, he should get it right most of the time (like yesterday’s game, he would have gotten it right if they were at home). This is what is so great about having a truely good setup man, the bullpen becomes somewhat stupid-manager-proof.
So, this was a case of manager-fail, no doubt. But I’m guessing even Hillman is going to figure out he can’t trust Farnsworth, and with two good arms in the pen, the Royals should be some what insulated from Hillman completely screwing the pooch. And remember ALL managers make these same bone headed bullpen/closer choices that cost their team a few wins a year.
As an A’s fan I can recount with great detail Ken Macha losing the 2004 AL west title on such a gaf, durning a game I had the plessure (horror) of attending. With two games to play, the A’s are down by one game playing the division leading Angels at home. If they win the next two games, they win the division (they went into the series tied, but lost 10-0 the first game). The A’s enter the 8th inning up 4-2, with Molina, Pride and Figgens due up, with the heavy hitters looming after that if they can’t get through it. So, Macha starts the inning with Macir. Which is fine, its a good match up for Molina. But Macir has been pitching very poorly lately, and has only recorded 1 out in his last two apperences while giving up 2 hits (somethin he will contue). Molina manages to get on. Now Macir (a Right hander) is left to throw against the left handed Pride and the switch hitting Piggens, who hits much better from the left side. At this point third up is Erstad, another lefty. Who do the A’s have waiting, warmed up in the pen? Rincon, who is absolute death to lefties. Lefties have just a .534 OPS off him in 2004, and it would get Figgins to hit from his weaker side. Macha leaves Macir in however. He gets Pride out, then Figgens gets on with a solid line drive. One out, up by 2, two on. Finally Rincon is summoned to face Erstad. Erstad doubles. Tie game. After an intentional walk to Vlad, the closer, Dotel (RHP), is called on to face Glaus. He get Glaus out, which brings up Anderson (LHB), who singles in Erstad for the go ahead and ultimately the division clinching run. Macha used 3 pitchers in this inning and still couldn’t keep up with the correct Left/Right splits (once Dotel is though, he’s staying through the 9th inning), and started the inning with a pitcher that has given up ~1.000 OPS over the last few weeks and already cost us 2 of the previous 6 games he entered. We’ll never know if Rincon could have retired Figgins and if that would have helped him retire Erstad, as Rincon is considerably better as he warms up through an inning. I remember watching from the 1st base side yelling at Macha to pull Mecir after Molina got on….I wasn’t alone, Mecir was gassed, and we all knew it.
Side topic: There’s got to be a way to get a great pitcher like Soria 100 innings in a year without damage or high-stress usage. A season is 6 months long, 180 days. Every other day usage, by definition, is 90 innings. And even THAT assumes that every outing is only one inning.
Somewhere on the scale of outrage below Soria not entering in the 8th and taxpayers building ballparks for billionaires but below the fact that Washington Post won’t cancel “Hagar The Horrible,” is the fact that Soria went 6 days without pitching at all.
Ugh. That’s all… Ugh. I was really starting to get excited about this year’s chances. It’s one thing to have lesser players, but to have some of the talent this team’s got, and not use it right? Ugh. It’s harder to watch this team blow it than it was to just get beat.
John @32
“And yet, while it’s fair to fault Hillman for this decision, he was just “going by the bookâ€; the vast majority of MLB managers would have done the same thing.”
Which is why the vast majority of managers are morons. How did we get to this point?
In the 70s and early 80s, managers would bring in their relief star in the 7th inning of games if needed to try to nail down the win. Here is an easy example, even if it didn’t work out. Game 3 of the ALCS: both Jim Frey and Dick Howser went to their best bullpen pitchers early, Frey in the 6th, trying to protect a 1-0 lead (and Quiz pitched the remainder of the game) and Howser with 2 outs in the 7th, trying to protect a 2-1 lead (of course Goose gave up the upper deck 3 run shot to George Brett, but still it was the right move).
Here are the relevant stats for HOF relief pitchers of the 70s and 80s (and a couple others):
Goose Gossage: 100+ IP as reliever 4 times and 2 times over 90.
Rollie Fingers: 100+ IP as reliever 8 times
Hoyt Wilhelm: 100+ IP as reliever 9 times
Bruce Sutter: 100+ IP as reliever 5 times and 1 time at 99 IP
The Quiz: 100+ IP as reliever 5 times
Mike Marshall: 100+ IP as reliever 6 times and 2 times at 99 IP
(I am not advocating absolute abuse of a reliever such as Marshall suffered at the hands of Gene Mauch and Walt Alston in 1973-74 with 208 appearances for 387 innings in those 2 years)
Now compare to IPs for HOF caliber closers (and a couple others) of the late 80s to present era:
The Eck: Most IPs as closer: 80
Mariano Rivera: Most IPS as closer: 80.2
Trevor Hoffman: Most IPs as closer: 88
KRod: Most IPs as closer: 73
Brad Lidge: Most IPs as (full-time) closer: 75
And where are the 20 to 40 innings you have taken away from your best bullpen pitcher going? Well, unfortunately, it seems to be going to the (unnecessary) 12th man on the staff.
Sorry, for the rant but that is just dumb (and as the previous poster noted, Trey Hillman is far from the only manager who does this).
The real point–and a quite depressing one, at that–is what manager in the last 10 years would have brought in Soria in that spot in the eighth, or brought him into a tied game, bottom of the ninth? Very, very few. I honestly can’t stand to watch baseball live anymore due to the entire “insider” industry being so ridiculously stupid.
Whoops, lost the date of that George Brett/Goose Gossage ALCS encounter. It was 1980 for those too young to remember such a wonderful and incredible moment.
Somebody mentioned earlier the outrage there would be in New York if Joe Girardi had made a similar move- that is, left Mariano Rivera in the bullpen while an eighth inning lead slipped away. The funny thing is, that exact same scenario happened last week when the Royals came back to defeat the Yankees 6-4. Rivera was left in the pen, and I remember thinking at the time, “Wow, what terrible managing. There is no reason that the Yankees should lose this game.”
Oddly, it’s much less funny to me when it’s Trey Hillman leaving Joakim Soria in the pen.
In my opinion, this should be a new Royals rule: if we are leading a game by three runs or less in the eighth inning of a game, the only pitchers who are allowed to appear in the game are Juan Cruz and Joakim Soria.
Joe – I just wanted to thank you for the Vonnegut reference. I suppose I could have e-mailed you, but I’ll hope you read the comments instead.
So it goes.
is it too soon to start a “fire hillman” movement? We have a chance to jump to an early big lead, but really poor use of the bullpen have us in a virtual dead heat. I wonder how the 85 royals would have finished if Quiz had been used this way? We haven’t had starters like this and young talent throughout the team since the mid eighties. We as fans know now how fleeting these chances are, these always closing windows of oppurtunity. We simply cannot afford to continue to throw away games that could be won.
Who is the best active manager? Many folks would choose Joe Torre, who is off to a great start. Torre also regularly used Rivera for more than one inning when it seemed right, and very recently used Jonathan Broxton for more than an inning to save a close game. And in this regard the Dodgers and Royals are similar: both teams have a closer they think they can count on and setup men that are probably a cut below. So what Hillman is saying by not using Soria is, “I am a better manager than Joe Torre.”
But what I really think Hillman is saying, “I am managing not to lose. By using Soria for an inning and a third, he might get hurt, and then my whole team falls apart. Instead of stretching the team to win, finding out just how special Soria is, and risking injury, I’ll just play it safe, try not to lose, and then wind up losing to better teams. Because, and I have to admit it, there are a lot of better teams out there.”
The Royals seem to me to be a pretty mediocre team in a balanced division that maybe, just maybe, could steal a playoff spot and give an incredible boost to the fans and players. Hillman should be trying harder to make that happen. The Rays last year were playing to win, not playing not to lose, to name another example.
All I can say in addition to all the previous comments is that Trey Hillman must have felt that 2 failed opportunities for Farnsworth wasn’t a sufficient sample size by which to evaluate – and he needed more proof. Congrats.
Another choice would have been to check in with any number of Detroit Tiger, Chicago Cub or Yankee fans who have been subjected to much the same failed promise young Kyle rewarded us all with for the past 6 or 7 years. But I guess seeing is believing. As a long time Cub fan I can tell you Farnsworth looks a lot better from far away. And far away is where the baseball is likely to end up in the clutch when he’s on the mound.
If you don’t plan to use your best players (Soria) to do what they are best at, there’s no hope. We all know what Kyle is best at. Bang, zoom, to the moon, Trey.
So what Hillman is saying by not using Soria is, “I am a better manager than Joe Torre.â€
Can you name another manager, other than Torre, who will use his closer in a close eighth-inning situation? If not, then does it make sense to argue that every manager in baseball is supposedly saying “I am a better manager than Joe Torre?”
It can be argued, though not proven, that the consistency of guys like Joe Nathan comes from only being used in specific situations and for limited innings — in previous eras, closers (then called ‘firemen’) were brought in early to protect close games. Guys like Mike Marshall would pitch 200 innings or more per year in these situations**, and most of them were wildly inconsistent from year to year. Limiting closers to ninth-inning appearances has not eliminated the problem of the inconsistent closer, but closers are more consistent on the whole now than they once were.
** – OK, there weren’t many guys like Mike Marshall, but closers did pitch significantly more innings in the late ’70s to mid-’80s than they pitched in the ’90s and pitch today.
@#24 and @#39
As a Yankee fan, I WAS outraged when Girardi blew last Saturday’s game by failing to use Rivera in the 8th. The reaction in NY was very quiet, at least in the papers (I don’t know what the WFAN reaction was). There is some small justification for saving Mariano: he is coming off offseason shoulder surgery, after all. But besides that, what was particularly infuriating was that Girardi 1) used the best setup man, Bruney, in the 7th; 2) after using Marte and Veras to get two outs in the 8th, went to the 5TH best reliever, Coke, rather than Mariano to get FOUR outs with the tying run on first base.
Like all of you, I can’t stand the modern use of the closer. But I don’t see the status quo changing any time soon. It’s just far too easy for the manager to look at the press and say, “I’m not going to use him when it’s not a ’save’ situation.”
Was at the Dodgers-Rockies game on Friday. Rockies led 3-0 heading to bottom of 7th. Dodgers scored 4 runs in bottom of 7th, while closer (Corpas) and 8th inning guy (Street) stayed safe in the bullpen. Street pitched the 8th when it was a bit late already. Corpas didn’t get to pitch until Sunday, when with an off day pending, they brought him in down 9-10 runs to get in some work.
In the meanwhile, Joe Torre brought in Broxton with 1 out in the 8th and the bases loaded. Broxton struck out 4 of the next 5 hitters and really did “save” the game.
Unfortunately, as Clint Hurdle proved, more managers are like Hillman than Torre when it comes to closer usage. Bruce Bochy made a similar error in the Dodgers-Giants game Wednesday. Not sure how much consolation any of this is.
So, if our best reliever is used as exclusively as a 9-th inning “closer” (up by 1-3 runs) … and all the HR hitters we have muscle up and increase both the number of victories and margin of each (i.e., we’re up by 3-5 runs instead of 1-3, which is what happened last week)…
… then, by logic, we’ll use Soria less innings this year than we did last year.
Question: how many times did Soria go over a week without pitching last year?
Answer: Just once, between April 16 and April 24. According to Baseball Reference, this was when the Royals had their early-season 7-game losing streak. Soria got the save on the 16th, and Hillman didn’t pitch him in six of the seven losses until he finally brought him in to pitch the 9th with the Royals down 2-0. There were three other times when Soria went exactly a week without pitching.
Anyways, this just goes to show you that closers probably don’t go 100 innings a year like Quiz, Goose, and Sutter did not because they don’t have the capabilities, but the managers just don’t give them the opportunity. I personally think Hillman has a man-crush on Farnsworth and his 100-mph fastball. Perhaps he was entertaining thoughts of moving Soria to the rotation and making Farnsworth the new closer.
Best No. 3 ever? Can’t argue much for Babe Ruth but as I mentioned in a previous post, Paolo Maldini has to be considered (he is the greatest ever no.3 in football (soccer) for those who don’t know who he is).
If it makes you feel any better Joe (and I can’t see how it would, but….) this is EXACTLY the kind of thing Ron Gardenhire does with Joe Nathan. Still, I’m glad he doesn’t have Farnsworth in his pen (although he has managed to frag Crain’s arm inside of just two weeks)
So Soria has a sore arm and has probably had a sore arm for a while. Do you think that maybe, just maybe that was why he wasn’t used in these situations? Maybe the manager actually knows more about the players than the fans on the outside who are so sure that the manager is “obviously an idiot” for not pitching a guy who has a sore arm.
Managers make mistakes, and Hillman might be poor strategically, but the point is fans who are so sure that they know best and declare that the manager (who quite likely has a lot more information on all his players than they do) is an “idiot” just sound ridiculous.
[...] Joe Posnanski » Blog Archive » Sunday Night Thought of the Week joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/04/19/sunday-night-thought-of-the-week – view page – cached #Joe Posnanski RSS Feed Joe Posnanski » Sunday Night Thought of the Week Comments Feed Joe Posnanski Hey, I’m back … Playing With Numbers Kindred — From the page [...]