The only other thing that came close was a weekend hockey tournament I played in about five or six years ago. Both the semifinals and finals went to shootouts, and I was completely wired in. I knew that they weren’t going to beat me. I stopped seven out of seven and we won both games.

Funny thing is, I’ve been a huge sports jinx ever since. Guess I used up my zone. It’s a pity, I have a big playoff game tomorrow night and it would be nice not to be nervous 28 hours ahead of time, like I am right now.

…at least I think I did. Like I said, though: I was cranked to the GILLS.

However, at one point, relatively late in my career, I had some pretty serious shoulder issues (which I still have) that partially immobilized my right shoulder. Now, Tae Kwon Do is mostly about your legs, so I figured I could carry on competing, and I did pretty well. I could still beat most everyone, but there were one or two guys that I just could not beat. I remember one time specifically, I was fighting in the finals of a tournament and I was in the zone, but I still KNEW I was going to lose. I knew everything he was doing and I knew when it was coming, but my shoulder was messed up, and I also knew I couldn’t stop it. So, I got whipped.

I think the zone is really about understanding. You know what’s going to happen because you can see which way the variables are breaking this time. Most often, you can turn this into a win, but sometimes it just lets you know to cover you behind so you don’t get it kicked too badly.

Thanks for all the free material! I look forward to purchasing the upcoming book.

cheers
DF

People filling out their brackets for March Madness say they “just knew” all the time, but they virtually never really mean it in the sense Joe is talking about.

The point being that when we’re wondering whether it’s selection bias, you have to distinguish all those times people say they “just knew” when really they did not have the feeling that Joe is describing, it’s just the language they use.

I’ve filled out an NCAA bracket every since 1991, except for 1995 when I was in Ireland. So that’s 18 years, and 72 1 vs. 16 matchups that I have predicted. 71 times I have predicted the 1 seed to beat the 16. 1 time I picked the 16 seed to win. In 1996 I picked Western Carolina to beat Purdue. The final score was Purdue 73, WC 71. By score not the closest 1/16 ever…two games in 1989 were decided by 1 point, and one game in 1990 went to OT, I think. But in many ways it was the closest because Western Carolina controlled the play for much of the game. I’m pretty sure they had the lead with 3 minutes to go, and they may have had a 7 or 8 point lead at some point. I do know they had a 3 in the air for the win in the final seconds that hit the back rim, and then got the rebound and had a tying shot in the air at the buzzer.

And I said I just knew Western Carolina would win. But I didn’t. Because I have had that “just knew” feeling and I know the difference. What I “just knew” was that Purdue was a crappy one seed (and I was right…they barely beat the 16 and then got smoked by #8 Georgia) but I did not really feel that I knew WC would win the game, though I’m sure I used that language.

My favorites, though, are the ones I have convinced myself of that end up going the other way. Two examples I have are The D-Backs beating the Yankees in the 2001 World Series (game 7). Another is Texas beating USC in the BCS title game a few years ago. I knew these things weren’t going to happen to the point that I casually watched a few minutes of the games said screw it and went to bed. both times, my wife woke me up and said “Uh, you might want to come in and watch this”. The feeling was as amazing as any I have ever gotten from being on a hot streak or being right about something.

I’m betting this happened to a lot of folks with the Giants-Pats game last year.