Mystery Player
Posted: February 8th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 83 Comments »
Time for another guessing game. I’m thinking of two baseball players. Both first basemen. Both right-handed hitters. Both were instant stars in the big leagues. I’ll tell you that one of the players is Albert Pujols, Prince Albert, Albert the Great, the guy who, if he stays healthy and motivated, could put up some of the most remarkable offensive numbers in baseball history.
And our mystery player … well, what can I tell you about him? He never led the league in home runs. He never led the league in RBIs. He was admired as a great player when he was young, but I would say the admiration for him as, well, muted. He only started in two All-Star Games his whole career. He only MADE five, which is just odd to think about. Steve Sax started two All-Star Games and made five. You could argue pretty persuasively that our mystery player was a lot better than Steve Sax. Steve Garvey made 10 All-Star Games and started nine. You could argue pretty persuasively that our mystery player was a lot better than Steve Garvey.
I’m sure when you look at the numbers you will know who our mystery player is … shoot, you probably already know.
Pujols (first eight years): .334/.425/.624, 319 homers, 977 RBIs, 947 runs, 2 MVPs, 170 OPS+.
Mystery (first eight years): .330/.452/.600, 257 homers, 854 RBIs, 785 runs, 2 MVPs, 182 OPS+.
So, what do you think of that? And it should be noted that, for reasons mostly beyond his control, the mystery player actually played in 163 fewer games his first eight years … almost a full season. So the counting numbers are much closer than they might seem. Look at them per 162 games:
Pujols (first eight years): .334, 45 doubles, 2 triples, 42 homers, 128 RBIs, 124 runs, 91 walks, 170 OPS+.
Mystery (first eight years): .330, 37 doubles, 1 triple, 39 homers, 129 RBIs, 118 runs, 132 walks, 182 OPS+.
Not bad. Mystery player seems to stand up quite well to the great Albert Pujols. In some ways, he was even better.
Our mystery player is especially prominent now because our mystery player is …
Frank Thomas.
Well, you knew that. From 1990-97, Frank Thomas was possibly the greatest right-handed hitter in baseball history. I mean, that’s a tough crowd obviously with Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Rogers Hornsby, Jimmie Foxx, Frank Robinson and the like. For those eight years, Thomas never hit less than .308, never on-based less than .426 (he walked 109 or more times every full season), and in 1994 he was on his way to one of the greatest seasons in baseball history when the strike happened.* If he was not the greatest, he was prominently in the photograph.
*In 1994, Thomas was hitting .353/.487/.729 with 38 homers and 101 RBIs in 113 games. If you stretch that out over a 162 game season, the numbers are quite staggering. Then again, several players stretched out over a full 1994 season have staggering-looking numbers. Thomas’ 1994 might not have even been the best season by a right-handed batter born on May 27, 1968:
Stretched out over 162 games:
Frank Thomas: .353/.487/.729, 49 2B, 1 3B, 54 homers, 144 RBIs, 152 runs, 156 walks, 211 OPS+.
Jeff Bagwell: .368./451/.750, 45 2B, 3 3B, 55 homers, 164 RBIs, 147 runs, 21 SBs, 213 OPS+.
Comment: Yes, Bagwell and Thomas were born on the same day.
Ken Griffey: .323/.402/.674, 35 2B, 6 3B, 58 homers, 131 RBIs, 136 runs, 16 SBs, Gold Glove, 170 OPS+.
Matt Williams: .267/.319/.607, 61 homers, 135 RBIs, 104 runs, 141 OPS+.
Albert Belle: .357/.438/.714, 50 2B, 3 2B, 51 homers, 144 RBIs, 129 runs, 193 OPS+.
Comment: You probably know that Albert Belle is the only player in baseball history to hit 50 homers and 50 doubles in the same season. He did that in 1995, a shortened season, no-less. It’s a staggering feat … to give you an idea only one other player in baseball history has hit 50 homers and FORTY doubles, and that one other player was Babe Ruth in 1921. Players very, very, very rarely hit 100 balls that hard in a single season; often what you will see is that when home runs go up, doubles go down, and vice versa. What Albert Belle did in 1995 is one for the books.
But here’s what’s even more amazing: As you can see, he was on pace to do it 1994. And later, in 1998, Belle hit 48 doubles and 49 homers for the Chicago White Sox. Few players ever hit a baseball as hard as Albert Belle.
Tony Gwynn: .394/.454/.568. We’ll never know if he could have hit .400. He really might have done it.
Barry Bonds: .312/.426/.647, 25 2B, 1 3B, 52 homers, 114 RBIs, 125 runs, 41 SBs.
Comment: Those numbers might not wow you because of what Bonds went on to do later. But in 1994, 52 homers would have been mammoth — it’s worth remembering that at that point only two players (George Foster and Cecil Fielder) had hit 50-plus homers in 30 years.
Greg Maddux: 22-8, 1.56 ERA, 283 IP, 210 hits, 14 complete games, 4 shutouts, 218 Ks, 43 walks, 6 home runs allowed.
Thomas is obviously back in the news because of A-Rod and because Thomas has been so publicly on the other side of the steroid story. Thomas was the only active player who was willing to talk to the people who put together the Mitchell Report. He was publicly outspoken about the need for drug testing in baseball, going back more than a decade.
And he aged hard, much like players of previous generations aged. He had his last truly great season when he was 32. After that he was beaten down by injuries and pain. He never hit anything close to .300 after he turned 32. He missed almost the whole 2001 season because of a triceps injury, then missed much of 2004, almost all of 2005. He came pretty close to winning the MVP in 2006, but that he was 38 by then and more in the We Are Family Willie Stargell mode of MVP; he hit numerous big home runs down the stretch. The next year, he did more or less the same thing for Toronto.
And it’s easy to forget just how brilliant Thomas was as a young player. He was Pujols at the plate. With the A-Rod news piling on top of all the rest, it’s pretty hard to say for certain that any player was clean. But Frank Thomas was always his own guy, he always lived by some sort of code that wasn’t especially clear to anyone but him. I suspect he was clean in a time when it was hard to be clean; in a time when it may have benefited him enormously to reach for performance enhancers. There have been mixed feelings about Thomas through the years. You probably remember when Chicago White Sox GM Kenny Williams called him “an idiot.” You probably have certain emotions about seeing Thomas toward the end, when he was huge and slow and one dimensional.
But when we look back, it’s funny: Frank Thomas really might have been the hero of the story.
* * *
Update: Numerous brilliant readers wrote in to ask about the A-Rod article that I posted late Saturday night. I pulled it from the site for a short while — nothing bad, just working on something. I’ll explain when everything is finalized.
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Funny, I was going to suggest the Big Hurt after reading your A-Something piece and then you wrote this. I think he might be the one that you are looking for. Beaten down by injuries, becoming a forgotten player, it seems like he would have had every reason to do something to aid in his recovery and to catch up with everyone else.
Was just talking to my friend yesterday about how Manny, Thomas and Belle are probably the 3 best hitters I’ve ever seen. Added that because of how long he ended up playing, people forget just how great FT was.
PS – you need to set it up so we can post these columns on FB.
In the 1998 Sporting News Baseball Yearbook, previewing the ‘98 season, there was an article asking whether Frank Thomas was the greatest hitter ever, and it compared his first 7 years to the likes of Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Rogers Hornsby, and Al Simmons. The article went on to say that, of the 8 players they were comparing, 4 went on to have even more productive careers, and the other 4 declined quickly. “Which way would Thomas go?” was the end question.
I probably read that magazine 20 times over that year, sitting in calculus class every morning. It’s fair to say that the articles in that magazine, and that article especially, have stayed in my memory well over the last ten years. Because of that, this Pujols vs Thomas comparison has been on my mind for at least 3 or 4 years. It just seems so fitting, considering the way we talk about Pujols today (justifiably).
You can see a comparison of the two here: http://wezen-ball.blogspot.com/2008/11/albert-pujols-vs-frank-thomas.html
In the end, I think Pujols’ numbers end up being better because the main component that Thomas was better at (OPS+) is almost exclusively due to more walks. Yes, walks are good and shouldn’t be discounted, but Pujols’ numbers are almost as good (or better) even with fewer walks. [consider total bases... Thomas has about 250 more walks than Pujols, but Pujols has nearly 400 more total bases - I'm not sure the extra walks supercede the extra bases]
Still, it’s important to me to remember just how much we all loved Thomas back in 1998… it’s not too much different from how we love Albert today.
1. Juan Pierre is probably the only other clean player
2. Man, I loved watching Thomas back then.
3. I’d never thought about it ’til now, but Pujols “great eight” years could be followed by a fast downturn. That would be sad. I hope that doesn’t happen.
Why was the A-Something article removed?
CB,
Manny, Thomas and Belle aren’t the 3 best hitters you’ve seen unless you somehow haven’t seen Albert Pujols.
One stat I always like to look at from that shortened 1994 season is Bret Saberhagen’s K/BB ratio. As a ratio stat, it’s not especially affected by the short season because he was not chasing a particular magic number, and it’s not a glamorous stat, exactly, but damn. 143 Ks, 13 BBs. In 173 IP.
With Greg Maddux doing what he was doing, Sabes did not have much shot at the Cy Young in that shortened season and Sabes’ Mets career is not remembered fondly by anyone — in fact, I’d bet most people don’t know he even had one good year with the Mets let along a borderline historic one — but had that been a full season, Saberhagen 1994 might be what…third on the list of greates Mets pitching seasons behind Gooden 85 and Seaver 71?
It also would have been probably the 2nd or 3rd best season of his career and I think most people would be surprised to learn that one of Saberhagen’s top 3 seasons came when he was in Queens.
What happened to the A-Rod post?
Looks like the A-Rod post is still on SI…for those that don’t have this saved as a favorite.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/writers/joe_posnanski/archive/
As a life long Royals fan, I was a little mouthy as I watched the Royals beating the White Sox in Chicago. I was in the left field bleachers pointing out that as Montgomery came into the game that everyone might as well just leave now to beat the traffic. And then Frank Thomas hit a blast that beat the Royals and inspired the fans around me to mock everything I had said the whole night. It was all in fun and a great- if painful- memory. And as quick as his bat was, I’m still surprised Thomas didn’t kill some poor thirdbaseman at least once.
Few of the comments left as a response to Joe’s A-Something article on the SI page are worth reading. This is still the place to read Joe: it is much more thoughtful and honest. And the readers/commenters are one of the major reasons for that.
My reaction to the Kenny Williams’ comments were that you might think he was talking about someone else other than perhaps the greatest player ever to put on a Chicago White Sox uniform. I know breakups between teams and aging vets can get ugly, but I thought Williams had lost his mind.
BTW, I knew who the mystery player was. As a Yankees’ fan, my hatred for Michael Kay was cemented several years ago when during a season opening series in Oakland, Kay stated that Frank Thomas needed to have a few more good seasons to make the Hall of Fame. Does this guy know anything about baseball? Those first 8 seasons alone (as Joe mentioned above) made him a Hall of Famer.
I’ve never had mixed feelings about Frank Thomas. From 1990 thru 1997 I was 10-18 years old. He was the favorite player of my childhood.
[...] the 2000 season because he hadn’t been called up yet. However, as Joe Posnanski points out, we’ve seen this kind of greatness before, and not that long ago either. Who is it? Well, you’ve have to read to find out. (h/t [...]
I remember Frank, too. And I haven’t forgiven Kenny Williams.
Forgive me for what may be nitpicking, re. the last sentence of this terrific piece, but I’ll ask:
do we want to go down the road where we have a Heroism Test; where we preserve the basic simplistic mainstream thinking about sports and morality, and just find a new oversimplified indicator?
Wouldn’t it be better if the media finally had to stop writing the same character story over and over again? As opposed to simply taking all the “good guy” and “bad guy” labels and rearranging them?
Go White Stripes! I see they’re leading in the poll. I don’t feel that they would work the crowd, however.
Uh..where’s the previous article you wrote about A-rod. I saw it this morning…..read it. It was about how good a year he had as a 20 year old….?
censored?
Or going to run in the paper so they made you pull it?
It’s pretty amazing to see those similarities between the two. When Thomas was at his best, I wasn’t really old enough to appreciate him. I just knew he was the Big Hurt. Anyway, as for the comparison, the main differences I see between the two are strikeouts and defense. How good of a fielder was Thomas considered at that point in his career? I really hope that Pujols doesn’t hit the Thomas/Helton slide.
i was never a big Thomas fan but hindsight it now 20/20.
i have a lot of respect for him and look forward to his take on all of this as it goes around and around…
The White Sox were the team of my childhood, and Thomas was my hero. I had Thomas posters on my wall, Thomas autographed baseballs (the fake, mass-produced variety they sell in gift shops), Thomas baseball cards, plaques, jerseys, the works. Every day before leaving school I would check the box scores to see how Thomas had done the night before. I remember that in several of those year Thomas was in contention for the Triple Crown (he never won, mostly because he was too disciplined a hitter to swing for the fences and win the Home Run crown).
I was raised a Sox fan, but I lived on the North Side, so all my friends were Cubs fans. All they ever talked about was Sammy Sosa. Its a shame that Sosa was perceived as the better player simply because he was more popular. I talked until I was blue in the face about how much better Thomas was than Sosa, so no one listened. Hopefully when all is said and done, Thomas will finally be given the recognition he deserves in Chicago, if not in the country at large.
Numbers in baseball mean nothing anymore. Since we don’t know who was clean and who wasn’t, stats aren’t relative. Nothing impressive stated in this article, since they might have been aided by performance enhancing drugs. Recognizing that, why even do an article like this?
I wonder if that means Frank Thomas will be in the Hall of Fame, though his numbers may not quite stack up to some of the other numbers of that era (and I have not really looked, so if this makes me look stupid, I apologize). And others, like Mark, Palmero, A-Rod and Bonds, will not make it, even if their numbers are far superior.
Maxim magazine did a story on Thomas last year with almost exactly this thesis: that he was the one clean player and that he might have hurt his chances to be “the” best ever because of his ethics. It’s not a great essay, but it was interesting enough.
Griffey’s another player who I’d like to think managed to stay clean. The Kid certainly had his best seasons prior to age 30. His injury history since turning 30 would also seem to suggest he’s aged naturally.
Bill James credits, I believe, 51 players eligible for the Hall with 390 or more career win shares. [That is, not counting Pete Rose (547) or players whose five years' wait isn't up.] Of those, 48 are in, all except Tony Mullane (399), Bill Dahlen (394), and Tim Raines (390). Frank Thomas is at 406, Alex Rodriguez at 407, and Albert Pujols, after only eight years, at 286. (Rafael Palmeiro, 395; Mark McGwire, 342.)
As Joe notes, Thomas’s “great” accomplishment rests on the equivalent of 7 seasons when he was in his 20’s and on the year 2000, when he was 32. People who know only the years apart from these would assume that Frank Thomas was merely “very good.”
Did trouble in his personal life affect the trough after 1997? Ryne Sandberg’s career took a hit in 1994 and 1995 from family difficulties. . . .
Where’s the A-Rod post. It’s maybe the best thing I’ve read about the Steroid Era of baseball
My ex- had her own nickname for Thomas: “Fierce”
We went to a lot of Roylz games in those days and she noted every time he came to bat he seemed to be mad at the ball; didn’t what that ball in his ballpark; punished the ball. Made the ball consider trying another game for a living.
I don’t know how to look it up but I suspect a lot of Thomas’ doubles were due to long fly balls bouncing off the top of the walls.
Like the punchline from the Charlie O. Finley Half-Pennant Porch story, “That ball… would have been… a home run in Yankee Stadium.”
I just don’t have a head for stats and numbers. But I remember many times when the worst news you could get as a Kansas City fan was “Fierce” was coming to the plate.
What will help Pujols in this (and other) debates is that he had his first full season at the age of 21. Thomas’ first full season was at 23 years old. So, even assuming that Pujols has his career turn downward after 32, that is four more years of prime-year production from this point and an additional two seasons to, say, Frank Thomas.
Frank Thomas had the best eye for the strike zone that I’ve ever seen. If he’d been born with two left legs and feet for hands he still could’ve been the greatest umpire in history.
Not that he would’ve wanted that, but still…his eyes seemed accurate to the millimeter, sometimes.
1. Juan Pierre is probably the only other clean player
Dude, when Neifi Perez comes up dirty, ain’t nobody clean…
Glad you made of point of writing about the Big Hurt. To even be considered in conversations with Hornsby, Foxx and Mays is just ridiculous. Thomas is so underated by the general baseball community that its bordering on tragedy. The sabermetric community realises how great he was and if he doesn’t get at least 90% on his first ballot it’ll be an injustice on the same level as Raines not even getting 25%(yeah, it still makes me angry)
Some have moved on from HOF voting discussions…I haven’t, sorry.
I loved Frank Thomas, behind Mattingly (personal favorite) and Junior Griffey he was probably the most fun player to watch at the plate. And watching him swat balls in home run derbies and bp were ridiculous.
Rogers Hornsby was such a beast. From 1919-29 he was the most valuable player in the NL 10 times. He hit over .360 9 times and over .380 8 times. He had an OPS+ during this period of 185.
Over an 11-year period, Cobb, Ruth, Williams, Mantle and Bonds are probably the only players who even compare.
It is a travesty he is not mentioned more often in discussions of the greatest right-handed hitters (and greatest players of all time).
i’d gone to comiskey one summer night in 1995 for a white sox/angels tilt. after the game i was hanging around with two friends to try and get autographs, we were 14 and 15 years old. we got a few guys, including ozzie guillen and lee smith. it was late, everyone but the three of us and three even younger children with their father were the only fans’ left, most of the players were long gone. that’s when frank thomas walked out and waiting while the valet got his car. we stood about 50 feet away from him, the younger kids screaming his name.
the white sox had lost a tough game, and if he’d just gotten into his car and driven off, i’d have understood. instead, as the six of us called out to him, he pulled a can of wax and rag from his trunk, and spent ten minutes touching up his car. it would’ve taken two minutes to walk over, sign half a dozen authographs, and walk back, but he didn’t. he waxed his car and then he left.
our own experiences hold more water than a dozen stories told to us by someone else. if thomas never took steroids, that’s swell. but no one can ever tell me he was a good guy.
I’m pretty sure Frank Thomas was never a good defensive player…
I hope in the short time that I’ve been commenting that I’ve established that the Sox are my team. As I posted a couple days ago, I think Maddux, Randy Johnson, Thomas and Griffey were all clean. I think all 4 of those guys should be first ballot; although everyone retiring at once is going to make that difficult.
Lukehart80, I wish I could sympathize with you, but I feel you’re standing on a slippery slope. You say all you wanted was 2 minutes…I’m sure if he gave you guys 2 minutes someone would’ve said he was a jerk and shouldn’t have bothered even coming over if he was going to leave so quickly. Now if he gives you 2 minutes, someone else in that group is mad that he didn’t stay 5 minutes…he stays 5, someone else wanted him there 10 minutes, he autographs some things, but he doesn’t personalize them…he personalizes the autographs, but he doesn’t take polaroids…he takes polaroids, but he doesn’t sign them…he signs the polaroids but he doesn’t personalize them…I’m sure that gets real old after a while. No matter what a player does(or doesn’t do) someone is going to be mad, so they avoid interaction after a while.
What you’re describing doesn’t make him a good guy or a bad guy…it makes him a guy who at the end of his day felt like touching up his car. To your way of thinking, if he drove off, got home and then waxed his car, he’d still be a great person.
Besides this article isn’t about how friendly he is; maybe A-Rod, Palmeiro, and McGwire signed autographs til their hands fell off. The article is about how the start and (natural) decline of his game still makes him a Hall of Famer.
The headline of this post made me think of another name for your HOF JR: Player To Be Named Later.
As to the 1994 projections, didn’t Bagwell hurt his hand right around the time the strike started (for the second straight season)? It’s likely his numbers would’ve sat right where they were.
Wonder who would’ve taken the MVP? Maddux? Williams? Gwynn? Moises Alou?
For perspective, here are career win shares totals for some first basemen. (Remember, the more plate appearances, the higher your total.)
IN: Musial (more games at 1b than in lf) 604, Gehrig 489, Murray 437, Foxx 435, McCovey 408, Anson 381, Killebrew 371, Connor 363, Brouthers 355, Perez 349, Mize 338 and 3 years of WWII, Banks 332 and shortstop, Cepeda 310, Greenberg 267 and 3.5 years of WWII, Sisler 292 and sinus/eye trouble, Terry 278, Bottomley 258.
OUT: Darrell Evans (more games at 3b) 363, Allen 342, Will Clark 331, Cash 315, Hernandez 311, Mattingly 263.
THIS ERA: Thomas 406, Palmeiro 395, Bagwell 388, Thome 350, McGriff 340 (?), Giambi 306, Delgado 305, Olerud 301. Of course, Frank has now played more games as DH than at first base.
#38 ~ Yep; Bagwell broke his hand on the final day before the strike and would have been out the remainder of the year had the season resumed.
On-topic: Damn, the Big Hurt was so freaking good in his prime. I guess it’s easy to forget now after his injury-riddled journeyman period but DAMN. I think I forgot he won back-to-back MVP awards (Bonds, Dale Murphy, Morgan, Banks, Mantle, Berra, Newhouser, Foxx the others to have done so; exclusive company), for what those are worth.
Off-topic: I think Anthony may be right that Jack White isn’t so great at working a crowd, especially a HUGE one; I bet Craig Finn of the Hold Steady could do an admirable job of it (although, like the Boss, he’s more of a baseball guy).
How about throwing in Mystery Player #3’s first 8 years.
.326/.417/.615. 312 doubles, 247 HRs, 830 Runs, 1003 RBIs. Made 5 All Star Teams, but didn’t play in 3 of them. Was MVP twice. Was probably never considered the best at his position when he played, and for most of his career, not even 2nd best at that position in his own league. Did almost nothing after those first 8 years (but under very special circumstances)
Meet Mystery Player #3, aka Hank Greenberg.
Have to say, I’m intrigued by the A-Rod “ghost story” that has mysteriously disappeared for some as of yet unexplained reason. For those of you who had the pleasure of reading it before it was pulled – any ideas/guesses?
It doesn’t take a lot of courage to rally for drug testing when you’re naturally built like a truck. That doesn’t make Frank Thomas a hero; it makes him another guy looking out for himself. Grow up, Joe.
SB- He didn’t say that Frank Thomas was an actual hero, just that insofar as a story has a “hero” and a “villian” that Frank Thomas is the former.
And yes, Frank Thomas was naturally “built like a truck.” If he would have taken steroids (and he might have for all we know) then he would have been a truck on steroids- which no doubt would have aided him in his recovery, helped him to age more gracefully, and perhaps made his prime that much more staggering.
It’s been said that the reason Barry Bonds took steroids is because he felt that inferior ballplayers were getting glory that he thought should be his. There had to be temptation for Frank Thomas to do the same. Doesn’t make him an actual hero; just the “hero” of the whole steroids in baseball saga.
I guessed Willie Bloomquist. My bad.
The A-Rod post you had up really was amazing. Why’d you take it down? I read the whole thing, loved it, and was going to recommend it to several other people. I don’t remember seeing anything that you would want removed? Did SI love it so much that they want to use it exclusively?
We were sitting around the bar the other night after the A-Roid story broke discussing which power hitters from the 90’s on were ‘clean’. Frank Thomas was the first name brought up. After that it was Griffey Jr. and not much else. Pretty sad actually.
Boo hoo, you are not a good guy if you don’t sign my autograph. You have a strange system of morality, luke.
I would have been upset if it had happened to me as well, but the image of Frank Thomas waxing his car while ignoring the kids clamoring for him is too funny.
I’ve only been following baseball for about three seasons now, so I had no idea Frank Thomas was that good. Or that concerned about his car’s wax.
I remember that in those first 8 seasons, Thomas was essentially Ted Williams.
By the way, shouldn’t “George Foster” be spelled “George Foster (09/09/09)”?
I don’t know if Joe has decided to pull that A-Rod article, or if SI has just moved it someplace else, but I was able to find the piece by searching “joe posnanski alex rodriguez” in Google… Here’s the article, for as long as they’re keeping it up…
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/02/08/arod.steroids/?eref=sircrc
Frank was an amazing player for a while, generally despised by the local media and not exactly endearing himself to us as fans. He shot his mouth off with little regard for who was listening but no one really seemed to care until his health and offensive contributions became a liability. The team won a World Series not with him but almost in spite of him, and after all that he still felt the team was lost without him.
In short, Thomas didn’t just play on the South Side, but he truly belonged on the South Side. I look forward to seeing him get his rightful place in Cooperstown.
I’m sure Frank was upset because towards the end of his career he broke down and was out with injuries a lot. He was never the same again. He was probably offered steroids to recover but didn’t want to even though it would probably extend his career. Say what you want about the man, but in the comic book of Steroid Era Baseball he is a hero.
I thought A Rod was scum before, so I guess it doesn’t suprise me all that much he would do it. He seems that vain and narcissistic.
Todd Helton 2000: 59 2B, 42 HR
Todd Helton 2001: 54 2B, 49 HR
Yes, I know. But he still played half his games on the road, and still absolutely murdered the ball. Not to mention the dreaded “Coors Hangover Effect”, which makes players tend to be worse in their first few games away from Coors.
#48
Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Carlos Delgado and Fred McGriff are probably all clean.
[...] Moneyball: Part 1? One guy I can think of that might be profiled heavily is Frank Thomas — who Joe Posnanski wrote about glowingly yesterday — because he had an MVP-like season for the A’s in 2006, when the White Sox had left [...]
#55
Pujols had 43/51 in 2003 and 46/51 in 2004.
You know why I think Pujols will continue to be amazing? Because 1) I’m an optimist and 2) Albert always finds a way. Pitchers talk about how if he can’t beat their best pitch on at bat 1, he’ll find a way and beat you on it later in the game. He found a way to be a great defender and base runner, even though no one would have complained too loud if he hadn’t. He even found a way to go from being picked in the 800th round to being one of the best hitters ever. Albert will age, but he will find a way.
Mike and TheMarkSmith
Mystery Player #1: .362 .461 .652 1.113 190 HR
Mystery Player #2: .294 .394 .494 .888 120 HR
At first base, mystery Player #1 is a clear cut Hall of Famer, and mystery Player #2 is a clear cut non-HOFer.
Of course, both these players are the same man: Todd Helton at Coors, and Todd Helton on the road. Even if you consider that his road stats would be better (from games in Colorado) if he was playing in any other NL ballpark as his home park, the only reason he gets any HOF love is because he played in the most extreme hitters park in the history of baseball. Helton is a fine player whose normalized season is good, but not great.</p
Frank Thomas, who has +.099 OPS at home versus on the road (instead of Helton’s .225) is a legitimate HOFer, not an artifact of playing in Colorado. If he had Helton’s home/away splits, he’d have roughly .063 more points of OPS, 0.35 more than Helton. Plus The Big Hurt has the counting stats (500 homers) that do mean something. 310 homers is nice, but 500 probably steroid free homers is meaningful.
If Steve Garvey had ever learned not to fall for that low and outside pitch, he would have been as good as Thomas.
Joe,
You just ruined my day.
Signed,
Cardinal fan
Big Hurt. Great moniker. Frank Thomas will probably go in as a DH. After all, right now, i think Molitor is the only one with that distinctive position.
Does he have enough to make 1st ballot? Possibly. There might be plenty of mixed emotions. The 5 yr. waiting period is designed exactly to cool things off(if necessary). The last few yrs. there have been smaller and smaller holdover lists. That should change in a yr. or two. So Frank may have to battle up on the list(s).
A more curious voting phenomena will be if the Big Cat – Andres Galarraga can survive the 1st cut.
Richard, thanks for explaining to me how Coors inflates hitters’ stats. I really thought I headed off those responses, but the internet always manages to surprise me.
I don’t think there’s anyone in the public domain who has translated Coors park effects accurately. It’s complicated. There’s of course the “normal” boost one gets at home, which of course makes your home/road split less useful. And there’s the Coors hangover effect, which you… well, don’t actually put any numbers behind at all.
I like Frank Thomas. I’m not disputing his case for the HOF, nor am I even saying Helton has a better case. All I’m saying is, hey, the guy had some numbers in that ballpark (hehe) too.
And thanks again for the home/road splits of a Coors player. Fascinating stuff… do you think that holds for everyone on Colorado?
I’m curious why Griffey’s name constantly pops up as someone people don’t think took PEDs. In Thomas’ case, we at least have the evidence that he cooperated with the Mitchel Report, which, while not definitive, certainly makes it seems less likely that he took PEDs. I can’t think of any positive reason to think Griffey did not–being well-liked, smiling a lot and wearing your hat backwards don’t count as reasons. This is not to say, of course, that Griffey should be suspected, just that he is no less likely to have juiced than any other random major leaguer about whom we have no positive evidence.
I think that there is still a notion (being gradually dispelled thanks to the steroid controversy in baseball, IMO) that a steroid user is easy to spot by his large muscles and bulky physique. It’s one of the primary factors people mentioned when referring to Canseco, Bonds, McGwire and even Sosa. “Look at how big they are!”
In time, as people learn more about steroids, particularly that one of the primary benefits is how it helps players recover faster from injuries and soreness, they’ll know that they can’t simply point at a player who doesn’t look like a bodybuilder and claim that “he’s clean.”
I think it’s going to take some time to sink in, because once we remove that ‘ease of identification’ we are left with a lot more suspicion than before. I feel bad for the truly clean players in the sport, but baseball is going through a period that I think it needs to go through, after ignoring the problem of PEDs for so long.
From what I’ve read here I’ve decided that Frank Thomas was a pretty good car polisher, especially late at night…
I am impressed by A-Rod’s forthright admission. Though his time frame of 2001-2003 is quite convenient for his legacy purposes, “I was clean before and after”. For me this drug he was using that “Helps recovery and strength but doesn’t add bulk” puts absolutely everyone into question. I’m beginning to think this was a policy encouraged by various clubhouses – not just turning a blind eye. Why is Pedro considered clean? Big Hurt? Griffey? These guys were hurt constantly and kept getting back on the field. Steroids would have been most tempting to them. Especially ones that don’t bulk you up and speed recovery. Even now, with no test but a blood test to determine HGH, I feel PED’s are still prevalent. There’s too much reward (money) for them not to be.
I also think, with this admission that PED’s are prevalent in all major sports to a degree we’d all be astounded by. Even today. I think Ken Caminiti (rest his soul) was right with his 80% number. I also would like to see an in depth report one day. I heard an interesting story the other day about how Ben Johnson’s performance in the 88 Olympics inspired pro athletes to juice like never before.
It is a very complex issue for this lifelong ball fan and I know for a lot of others. When I hear people say it’s all entertainment so what does it matter or that parents and relatives should be role models for youth and not pro athletes – I cringe.
Steroids in sports are a perfect analogy for America right now. Puffed up artificially through years of unregulated greed, unnatural growth and unsustainable practices.
The real pain is the ordinary folks, the fans, us Americans who are wondering where the rug went. Why did we play it so clean when seemingly everyone around us cheated to get to the top? And once they’re on top who cares what they reveal about their journey – they’re already rich beyond belief – Madoff / A-Rod. What I fear is not the individual messages to our kids about this guy and that guy. What I fear is the demise of the American Promise, that good clean hard work is rewarded at the end of the day, that integrity will reap its positive karma and those who cheat will be punished. That a wounded, brow beaten American public will throw up its hands, reach for the drugs to lessen the pain, turn to short-cuts and criminality to get ahead and that all the values this country was supposedly founded on will fade away just like Hank Aaron’s records. That kids will look for the short cuts in life and never realize the reward of a hard days work and a family that is content.
So yes. Thank you Alex for this admission. It is not perfect, but neither are we. And if you go out and talk to kids about the “dangers” of cheating – maybe some kids will see beyond the chauffered limo and your 1/4 billion contract – and hear you.
Maybe the answer is a salary cap in all major sports of what the President makes. 400k a year and a maximum 4 year career. Like politics, sports are not supposed to be a life-long profession. What would sports look like then? OK that’s nuts but…??
Crazy idea time:
MLB should approach the Obama administration about offering a brief period of amnesty for any and all players who wish to come forward and admit past wrongdoing.
For example, you’ve got until Opening Day to come clean. If you do you will not be punished by MLB or investigated/prosecuted by authorities.
Then, starting with Opening Day, any player who tests positive is banned for a minimum of one year under the commissioner’s ability to invoke the best interests of baseball.
Such a policy would be in violation of the current CBA. Selig would essentially be daring the MLBPA to fight for the right to juice.
I’m sure there are readers who can come up with reasons why this could never happen, but that’s my fantasy solution. Get it all out and move on under much tougher penalties.
I tend to agree with the commenters who say that no one is above suspicion. I mean, one of the first guys who tested positive (to my knowledge) was Alex Sanchez:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sanchal03.shtml
That’s hardly your hulking slugger right there.
For every player who used PEDs to challenge home run records, I’m sure there were hundreds who used them to recover from injury or to add just enough to their game to make it to (or stick around in) the majors rather than spending their careers stuck in AA or AAA. Simply put, there’s not a guy out there about whom I’d be shocked if he was named.
The fact that the users will always be ahead of the testing curve doesn’t help matters. As some mentioned, there’s no test for HGH. By the time there is, I’m sure there will be other designer drugs and masking agents that will have cropped up.
Of course, the tricky part is that is was SO widespread, it’s hard to entirely fault some guys. If you’re competing for a job with someone and they’re getting ahead by cheating, aren’t you going to be a bit tempted to cheat to level the playing field? Especially if it’s a job you’ve worked hard your whole life to get, to the point where that’s easily your best option at a fulfilling career.
I’d like to think I’d be able to resist the temptation to use if I were in their shoes – it’s easy to moralize, after all – but given the choice between doing something illegal when it seems highly unlikely that I’d be caught or giving up on my dreams, well, that sort of puts it in a bit more perspective.
Mikey: Obama would probably like the idea too. He was only too happy to “relax” and speak to the WashPost reporter’s question last night.
It beats talking about the worst economy that most of us will ever endure – for years I fear too.
I’d just like say, Thomas was probably my second favorite player, to Rickey Henderson, towards the later end of my childhood (I’m 25). Having him come back and put up a pretty darn good season, driving my Oakland A’s to the playoffs, in the only year I have actually lived in the Bay Area, will always be one of my favorite seasons and provided me with many memories.
I loved that long swing to take the down and away fastballs out of the park. And I absolutely loved that HR of Santana in the playoffs.
In the end I don’t really care about steroids. I’m happy to be able to say I’ve actually seen Bonds, Thomas, Henderson, A-rod, McGwire, play live. But the fact that one of my favorites seems like an honest guy in an era with so much dishonesty is nice.
Mike in Hawaii, amen to you. A guy doesn’t sign an autograph, so obviously he’s a bad guy. I guess Lukehart80 has never had a bad day in his life where he didn’t do everything that everyone else wanted, because then by his own definition he’d be a bad guy. Boo freaking hoo.
Also, why does everyone assume Griffey is clean? Give me one good reason to think that. Players don’t just break down suddenly at age 30 after years of good health. He’s never played more than 145 games since turning 30. His power numbers have dropped dramatically. He’s gained weight and slowed down in the field and on the base paths. He’s become seriously injury-prone. Does any of that sound clean to you? What, because the guy waggles his bat and smiles to the camera, he’s immune to questioning?
#73
Players don’t just break down suddenly at age 30 after years of good health.
They do when they’re as notoriously as indifferent to conditioning as Griffey was.
I remember reading somewhere sometime ago that Frank would stand in the batters box and say out loud how fast the pitch was coming over the plate seeminglt reading the speed off the radar gun, he was that accurate.
Lukehart80, even if we gauge how good a person by whether or not he signs autographs, The Big Hurt would be a great man. You are talking about 1 experience. Who knows what kind of day Frank had had. Maybe he had an altercation with a fan on his way into the stadium that day. Maybe his wrist was aching. Who knows.
I grew up in Southern California, and my dad had FANTASTIC season tickets for the Angels. I didn’t really have a rooting interest in any team yet, as I rebelled against the that you must root for the local team. In 1991, when I was 12, I started getting autographs during batting practice, and then getting the players when they arrived at the stadium, and eventually getting them at hotels and whatnot.
Ultimately, I ended up becoming a White Sox fan. You know why? Because of how fan friendly their players were, particularly their well known players. In particular, Frank Thomas was absolutely the best signer in the league, as far as stars go. He signed before almost every game. He would line up all the fans waiting in the parking lot, and sign for them when he arrived at the stadium. He would also usually sign during batting practice. I probably attended 50 White Sox games, and I would say I Frank signed at 40 of them. I’m even shown on Frank’s 1995 Score baseball card, while he is signing autographs in 95 degree heat during batting practice of a game against the Angels. I’m the guy in the green cap, with a pen cap in his hand, looking to my left.
http://beta.beckett.com/item/4093732/Baseball-Card/Collection/1995-Score-1-Frank-Thomas/?tab=Price
So please don’t judge Frank on ONE isolated incident. It isn’t fair to him. To this day, I am a HUGE White Sox fan, almost solely based on Frank Thomas and his combination of awesome talent and incredible fan friendliness.
Doug
The most ridiculous thing about Belle’s 1995 season is that with 50 homers and 50 doubles, playing for a team that won 100 games of 144, he didn’t win the MVP – Mo Vaughn did, even though he wasn’t even his own team’s most valuable player (when you factor in that he played short, John Valentin was worth a fair bit more than Vaughn). But of course Belle wasn’t the nicest guy.
for what it’s worth, my point was not that because frank thomas did not sign an autograph for me one night that he must be a bad guy, but that our own first hand experiences inform our opinions far more than anything anyone else tells us.
i DO think a man who stands in a parking lot waxing his car while ignoring half a dozen children are pleading for a brief moment of his time because they admire him is acting like a jerk, but OF COURSE it could’ve just been a bad day. i said myself that the sox had lost a tough game that night.
but, that was the closest contact i ever had with the man. and it’s not as though mine is the only story of a moody, petulant frank thomas. i can certainly understand why doug would love thomas, it sounds like frank was a true pleasure on the day he met him. we each have a view of thomas as a man largely shaped by a single encounter.
that’s why dimaggio said he always played hard, “there’s always some kid who may be seeing me for the first time.” thomas wasn’t playing, and i don’t downgrade him as a player for that night (the man could RAKE, and should be 1st ballot to cooperstown), but when i think of him as a person, of course it taints him for me. people take things personally, kids especially. i was a kid.
i don’t know if he’s a good person or not, neither does doug, neither does joe. i’m unwilling to use rumor and drug tests as some final or supreme litmus of any single player’s character or abilities.
i glad thomas still has supporters willing to stand up for him. i live in chicago and have plenty of sox’ fan friends, and thomas’ name hardly comes up, he seems forgotten. he drew boos when i saw him at comiskey in an A’s uniform. he was too good a player to not have a lot of fans, it’s just that i’ll never be one of them.
It’s too bad that Frank Thomas clogged the bases so much.
When Thomas was in his prime, I thought I was seeing the greatest right handed hitter ever. Then came Pujols.
Frank is still a 1st ballot hall of famer. Even with a career since that prime marred by injuries and a decrease in bat speed and eye, he has still been productive when healthy, with an ops of .901 in the “bad part” of his career. I would not care if he was the slowest base runner and worst fielder ever (that title might belong to Billy Butler-I think Thomas might beat him in a race right now)
Belle never had a tail end to his career, so I was only able to find 2 players whose careers are complete who had more Extra Base Hits per game (Ruth and Gehrig). Pujols is on pace now to become the 3rd.
The day Bagwell and Thomas were born has to be the most productive birth date in baseball.
I would like to add that Frank should have 3 MVPs due to Giambi winning the 2000 MVP by a very slim margin over Big Hurt while admittedly using steriods after having a huge and juice-enhanced September.
I love Frank Thomas… he my favorite player ever, and, like many of these readers, and am fortunate to be able to say that he did it the right way… clean and through hard work.
If he was as shady and unethical as Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, RPal, A-Rod, etc… he could potentially have 650+ homers already and still have time to add on like Bonds did when he turned 40…
1994 was full of a lot of possible record breakers. Another one that isn’t nearly as sexy as Tony Gwynn’s attempt at .400 or Frank Thomas’ sick statistical line was Chuck Knoblauch’s assault on the doubles record. Knoblauch hit 45 in 109 games and was on pace to hit 65 total… 2 shy of Earl Webb’s record of 67 in 1931. Since 1936, no player has even hit 60.
More random doubles trivia: Albert Belle twice tied the record with 4 doubles in a game… all within one month’s worth of games in 1999.
Numbers courtesy of the Baseball Almanac and Baseball Reference.
Joe,
I had the good fortune to know about Jumbo Frank in 1990. I told my stat league players “Draft this fella”. Those who listened, thanked me many times. I was also at the 2nd home game of the season in the new Comiskey Parkin 1991. I got there early, to see the place, and I see on the field Walt Hriniak working with Thomas and it looks like he adjusting his swing! It took two security guards to hold me back as I was screaming “GET THAT IDIOT AWAY FROM FRANK THOMAS!”, as the guards were leading me away they said “What made you do that?”. I answered “Thomas was born to hit over .300, 30hrs, 100+RBI’s, Hriniak can only hurt him”. The guard realized I was right and yelled out “Hriniak you maniac, get away from him!”
I’m NYC born and bred, but things like that make me love Chicago even more.