The Power of One Draft
Posted: January 20th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 105 Comments »
We’re going to use the Kansas City Royals as an example, but you can obviously do the following with any team. The Royals are just a good example because they have been lousy for fifteen years. They are a good example because even after those fifteen years, general manager Dayton Moore feels forced to run around and take big money chances on Jose Guillen and Gil Meche and fill gaps with players like Mike Jacobs, Willie Bloomquist, Horacio Ramirez, Kyle Farnsworth and so on.
But what if they’d had one perfect draft? Just one. I realize the perfect draft concept is mythical … there’s no such thing because we don’t know what would happen in the alternate universe. We would only be guessing, for instance, if say the Royals had drafted Tim Lincecum with the No. 1 overall pick in 2006 instead of Luke Hochevar. Sure, in retrospect, Lincecum would SEEM to be a much better pick. But who knows? Maybe the Royals, in an effort to rush him to the big leagues, would have made him a closer. The Royals brass, I recall vividly, thought Lincecum profiled more as a bullpen guy than a starter.* Or maybe they wouldn’t push him to the big leagues quickly the way the Giants did, and he would have hurt his arm in the minor leagues. Or maybe he just wouldn’t develop the same way in Kansas City. Who knows, really?
*And with the way they have handled Joakim Soria, you can see the Royals making Lincecum a closer. You know, I’ve been thinking a lot about the Royals and Joakim Soria. When the Royals drafted him as a Rule 5 pick before the 2007 season, he was 22 years old, and he had very limited minor league pitching experience. But he WAS a starter — he famously (at least around Kansas City) threw a perfect game in the Mexican League just after the Royals drafted him.
The Royals, wisely, wanted to ease him in by throwing him now and then in the bullpen. But he was so good right away — he didn’t give up a run in his first five appearances, struck out a batter an inning, allowed one hit — that they expanded his role in the pen. And he STAYED good — didn’t give up his first homer until late July — so then they made him the setup guy, and then the closer and he just continued to be really, really good.
And here you can make comparisons between Soria and another brilliant Rule 5 pick … Johan Santana. Their paths were different , even though they were both taken in the Rule 5. The Twins drafted Santana in 2000, and they kept him on the roster all year, though he was actually pretty miserable. He did not have anything resembling Soria’s early success (though it should be noted that he was two years younger). He had a 6.49 ERA his rookie year, gave up 102 hits in 86 innings, had a 64-54 strikeout to walk. Not good. In 2001, he was some sort of starter/reliever blend, and then he hurt his elbow and more or less missed the second half of the season. This is an important fact, and we’ll get back to it in a minute.
In 2002, Santana went to the minor leagues to work on his change-up. This reminds me of the Charlie Parker story where supposedly he was just a mediocre sax guy who got laughed at in clubs. Then he went away for a couple of months and, according to legend, came back as this force of musical nature. In jazz, they call this “woodshedding†— when a musician sequesters himself for a long while and reinvents himself/herself. Santana went baseball woodshedding, and when he came back in late May he was a wholly new pitcher with this devastating change-up. He was a starter first, and he was good, sometimes great. Then the Twins put him in the bullpen in September and he was flat electrifying, nine appearances, 26 strikeouts in 18 innings, a 1.50 ERA, a .206 batting average against, brilliant.
At this point, the Twins seemed unsure of what to do with him. He began 2003 in the bullpen, and he was really good again … 77 strikeouts in 66 bullpen innings (with three spot starts mixed in), a .215 batting average against. The Twins had the good fortune of having an excellent closer then in Everyday Eddie Guardado, and so they were freed up to make Santana a starter. He went 8-2 down the stretch, was dominant, and that November the Twins traded for Joe Nathan to be the closer, and they made Santana a permanent starter. He won the Cy Young Award in 2004, again in 2006, and could have won it again in 2008.
Soria’s tale is altogether different and simpler. He was so good in the bullpen in 2007 that the Royals made him the closer for 2008 and he dominated the whole year, Mariano style. That’s it. That’s the whole story. They never experimented with him. They never stretched him out. They never took any chances at all with him. And I am NOT saying this is wrong — Soria is a remarkable Royals success story and everyone involved with scouting and developing him should be very proud and should get a nice bonus.
No, what I’m saying is, the Royals wrote Soria’s destiny. They did this for good reasons. They did this because they didn’t want to mess with success — the Royals have not had that many success stories over the last 15 years. They did this because they did not have an Everyday Eddie or Joe Nathan to be the closer in his absence. They did this because the guy was SO DAMNED GOOD as a closer. And most significantly: They did this because, while nobody freaked out when Santana got hurt in 2001 — he wasn’t good enough to freak out about yet — EVERYONE would have freaked out if the Royals messed with Soria’s role and he hurt his elbow. It was a whole different thing. Soria’s early success meant everyone was watching. And when everyone’s watching, people generally play it safe. That’s human nature.
That’s how things happen in baseball. Yes, there are good reasons to believe that if the Royals made Soria a starter, he would be really good, maybe even great, maybe even on the level of Santana or Lincecum. But we don’t know, and we probably never will know, and that’s the point.
So, yes this is an imperfect exercise … BUT, one perfect draft. In 1998, the Kansas City Royals finished 72-89. They were a mess — they did not have an owner, and they were trying to make the team somewhat more appealing to buy, and they were trying to keep the record artificially better with old guys like Jeff King, Jeff Conine, Shane Mack, Hal Morris, Terry Pendleton, Tim Belcher and so on and so on.
But there were quite a bit of big-league ready talent in the organization. As 1999 began, Mike Sweeney was moved from catcher to first, and he was crushing the ball. Johnny Damon was in left-field and he was coming into his own. Carlos Beltran was a rookie center fielder, Jermaine Dye was 25 and he was beginning to live up to his promise, 23-year-old second baseman Carlos Febles looked like a future Gold Glove winner to management, and the Royals had three 24-year-old starters — Jose Rosado, Jeff Suppan and Glendon Rusch — who showed a little bit of something.
Everyone understood the 1999 Draft was hugely important … the Royals had four of the first 43 picks.
Here’s what was … and what might have been:
Royals first pick (No. 7 overall): Pitcher Kyle Snyder.
Could have been: Pitcher Barry Zito OR Pitcher Ben Sheets.
Comment: There were, best I can tell, three college starters who stood out in that draft, and the Royals took the wrong one, they took Kyle Snyder, and he got hurt. Royals scouts will tell you that if Snyder could have stayed healthy, he would have been a dominant pitcher in the big leagues, better than the other two. I have no reason to doubt that. But let’s imagine the Royals took Ben Sheets here. I think the Royals should try to SIGN Ben Sheets now — it looks like he might go for a good price. But that’s another story.
Royals second pick (No. 25 overall): RHP Mike MacDougal
Could have been: Shortstop Brian Roberts.
Comment: MacDougal did have a brief burst of success in 2003 and he even made the All-Star team. … Roberts was taken 25 picks later, and the Royals obviously had little interest in him because they passed on him with each of the next two picks. But we’re not talking reality, we are talking the perfect draft. So the Royals take Roberts here.
Royals third pick (No. 32 overall): RHP Jay Gehrke
Could have been: Outfielder Carl Crawford.
Comment: Just three years later, the Royals brass would talk about how much they LOVED Carl Crawford. Loved everything about him. They would talk about how they needed to get guys like Carl Crawford. But they had four shots at him in 1999 — he was the 52nd overall pick — and did not take him.
Royals fourth pick (No. 43 overall): LHP Jimmy Gobble
Could have been: LHP John Lackey
Comment: Lackey came out of Grayson County Junior College and did not get drafted until No. 68 by the Angels. … The Royals just resigned Jimmy Gobble for 1.35 million next year. I like Gobble and I think that when used effectively — as in ONLY against lefties — he can be effective. That said, it is telling that a baseball player with an 8.81 ERA can sign a contract for $1.35 million.
Royals fifth pick (No. 54 overall): RHP Brian Sanches
Could have been: INF Brandon Phillips.
Comment: Phillips was a high school guy out of Stone Mountain Georgia. He’s had quite the career. He was HUGE prospect, maybe the best in baseball. As such, he was probably the key player in the Bartolo Colon trade of 2002 … though Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee turned out to be the real keys. Then he was a bust, and he was basically dumped on Cincinnati. Then he had a 30-30 season with the Reds and he won a Gold Glove in 2008. Everybody in baseball has been both right and wrong on Phillips at least a half dozen times, and we’ll probably all be wrong and right about him again in the future.
Royals sixth pick (No. 58 overall): RHP Wes Obermueller
Could have been: 1B Justin Morneau
Comment: Did you know Morneau was actually drafted as a catcher out of New Westminster High in British Columbia? He was taken by the Twins in the third round, 89th overall.
Royals seventh pick (No. 91 overall): RHP Kiki Bengochea
Could have been: 3B Hank Blalock
Comment: With that name, Kiki should have made it. Four picks after the Royals took Kiki, the Seattle Mariners took Willie Bloomquist. It has taken almost a decade for the Royals to right that wrong. … OK, so let me ask you this question: How the hell did the 2003 Texas Rangers lose 91 games? I realize that the quick answer to that would be “dreadful pitching,†and the even quicker answer would be Chan Ho Park. But I guess I had not put together that the Rangers that year had this infield (followed by the contracts they are currently working):
1B: Mark Teixeira (8 year, $180 million contract)
2B: Michael Young (5 year, $80 million contract)
SS: Alex Rodriguez (10 year, $275 million contract)
3B: Hank Blalock ($6.2 million club option)
If you break it down for one year, that infield would cost you $72.2 million — or approximately what the Kansas City Royals are paying their entire team this year. And that wasn’t all the Rangers had offensively in 2003. Rafael Palmeiro had a 38 homer year. Juan Gonzalez hit 24 homers in a half season, which inspired the Royals to take a shot at him. I realize that baseball is a mysterious game, and the Ballpark at Arlington is a hitter’s paradise, but you shouldn’t lose 91 games with that infield, right?
Royals eighth pick (No. 121 overall): SS Mackeel Rodgers
Could have been: RHP J.J. Putz
Comment: In 2007, Putz had an 0.698 WHIP — third best over the last decade behind Eric Gagne’s preposterous 2003 season and, get this, Mariano last year. I bring this up to point out that Mariano Rivera, at age 38, had one of the greatest reliever seasons in baseball history last year. And for a guy who has certainly gotten plenty of publicity, I’m not sure people realize that.
Royals ninth pick (No. 151 overall): 1B Ken Harvey
Could have been: RHP Aaron Harang
Comment: You can’t really blame the Royals on this pick … for history’s sake, Ken Harvey will be the only fifth round pick in the 1999 draft to make the All-Star Team. He’s also the only fifth round pick to get hit in the back with a relay throw and lose a fight with the tarp. And he made the Team out of pure and simple mathematics …
Harang went to San Diego State and was drafted by Texas, he was almost immediately traded from Texas to Oakland, and then traded to CIncinnati, and before last season he was by far the most underrated pitcher in baseball, one of the most underrated ever. One of my favorite quirky bits of trivia is that in 2006, Harang led the National League in wins and strikeouts and did not receive a SINGLE Cy Young vote, not even a third place vote. I’m not saying his should have gotten a vote — wins and strikeouts are not the most important stats — but I’ve got to think leading the league in two of the three pitcher triple crown categories would inspire at least one vote (and Harang did finish ninth in ERA+, his 3.73 ERA was largely an illusion of an awful pitchers park … Harang had a 2.98 ERA on the road).
Harang really struggled in 2008 — I guess he had some injury issues with his forearm. I keep thinking the Reds will trade him to some team like Boston, and he will pull of a Sutcliffe-like 14-2 in the second half, and people will say: “Hey, where did THAT guy come from?â€
Royals tenth pick (No. 181 overall): RHP Ryan Baerlocher
Could have been: LHP Erik Bedard
Comment: I realize that scouting is an imprecise science. But it seems rather difficult to believe that a scout could go to Lewis-Clark State College and watch Ryan Baerlocher pitch, then go to Norwalk Tech University and watch Erik Bedard pitch, and determine that Baerlocher as the better choice. But of course, that’s not what happened — scouting is just not that simple. You have numerous scouts, and countless reports, and cross-checkers for higher picks, and money considerations and makeup concerns and lots of people involved. And THAT is how Ryan Baerlocher gets taken over Erik Bedard.
Royals 11th pick (No. 211 overall): C James McAuley
Could have been: OF Coco Crisp
Comment: Crisp actually came out of Los Angeles Pierce College as a second baseman. Years later, the Royals finally got their man. You wonder where James McAuley is.
Royals 12th pick (No. 241 overall): 2B Eric Nelson
Could have been: RHP Jake Peavy
Comment: Peavy did not go until the 15th round, so he would have been thrilled to get taken with the Royals with the 241st pick out of St. Pauls Episcopal High School in Semmes, AL.
Royals 13th pick (No. 271 overall): SS Mark Ellis
Could have been: 2B Mark Ellis
Comment: The Royals made the right pick here. The problem is that they did not realize what they had — they had pegged Ellis as a utility infielder at best — and they traded him away in as a throw-in in the Johnny Damon deal. Ellis is a very solid player who according to the Dewan Plus/Minus is one of the best defensive second basemen in the game.
Royals 14th pick (No. 301 overall): LHP Jesse Kurtz-Nicholl
Could have been: OF Marlon Byrd
Comment: I have to say that Jesse-Kurtz Nicholl is, without a doubt, the most Disney Radio Name ever taken in the history of the draft. Jesse is actually a pretty remarkable guy — he was a brilliant student at Rice, and he’s now a baseball coach at Richmond High in Northern California where he won the prestigious Hispanic Heritage Teacher Award.
Royals 15th pick (No. 331 overall): LHP Edwin Franco
Could have been: 1B Lyle Overbay
Comment: You are probably wondering why this this post is still going on … I mean, we’re down to Lyle Overbay. But there’s a reason we’re stretching it out. I’m sure you know the reason.
Royals 16th pick (No. 361 overall): LHP Tony Cogan
Could have been: OF Lew Ford
Comment: I’ve written my Tony Cogan story before. Lew Ford was a very good player in 2004, I think.
Royals 17th pick (No. 391 overall): 3B Greg Raymundo
Could have been: 3B Albert Pujols
Comment: And there it is. The guy who went to high school in Kansas City. The guy who went to Junior College in Kansas City. The guy, 18 months after he was drafted, would become one of the great rookie sensations in baseball history. Ah what could have been.
So, what happens if the Royals have the perfect draft in 1999? Just one draft. They could have three or four years later, called up a rotation with Jake Peavy, Aaron Harang, Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets and John Lackey. They could have brought up Putz to work the pen. They could have had Brian Roberts, Brandon Phillips, Hank Blalock, Mark Ellis and Lyle Overbay fighting for places in the lineup, with Justin Morneau and Albert Pujols battling each other for first base. The Royals already had one of the best young outfielders EVER with Damon, Beltran, Dye, but throw in Carl Crawford, Coco Crisp, Marlon Byrd and Lew Ford, just for depth and argument’s sake.
One draft. Of course, no team gets all the draft picks right. No team gets half the draft picks right, or one-third, or one-quarter or even one out of every twenty right. But it’s possible. If the Royals had just been right three times in 1999 — if they had only drafted, say, Lackey, Peavy and Pujols — what would their history have been like? And this is why, at the end of the day, teams like the Royals and Pirates and Reds and Twins and Marlins and Rays and all the rest have every chance to succeed in this crazy game. If you are right on the draft, really right, you can beat every team out there no matter how many billion they might spend.
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CIRCLE ME BERT!!
Welcome back. I hope you finished your book during that long break from the blog.
I have one wholly unimportant suggestion/addition that has no impact on the main point of this post at all. In fact, I’m only mentioning it because, as Twins fan, I still dream of the possibility of Terry Ryan locking up Santana TWO years before his contract was set to expire (recall there was a lot of talk/negotiations that took place that offseason). Anyway, as mentioned, Santana could have won the Cy Young in 2008 (although I think Lincecum was very slightly better…we can all be thankful that Webb didn’t win), but it was an absolute travesty that he didn’t win in 2005.
(record/IP/ERA/ERA+/WHIP/SO/BB)
Colon, 2005 Cy Young winner: 21-8/223/3.48/122/1.16/157/43
Santana, 2005 stats: 16-7/232/2.87/155/0.97/238/45
Behold the power of the win.
Alright! This is the perfect January post. I’m already feeling hopeful about the Royals’ future.
I thought this blog entry would be about the 1974 Pittsburgh Steelers draft, 4 HOFers in 5 rounds (Swann, Lambert, Stallworth, Webster).
That is the most perfect real draft I can think of. Would like to see what others can come up with though.
I know the post is not supposed to be about a salary cap, but the last sentence got me.
We all know that the small markets can compete with the big markets. The BP and other stathead folks throw that in our face (particularly how there is more competitive balance in baseball than football).
What always gets ignored is the ability to keep the team competitive. Tampa, Florida, Minnesota, heck, even KC, can catch lightening in a bottle in a given year, but they have no ability to keep that team together, unlike NY, Boston, Anaheim and the teams that always make or almost make the playoffs every year.
The only sustained small market success stories in the last 10 years are Oakland and Minnesota. Oakland competes in a 4 team division with one big market (Anaheim). As we have seen the last 4 years, Anaheim has taken charge. Minnesota competes in a 5 team division with one big market (Chicago). Until recently, the White Sox have spent like they are a small market.
The only other success stories are middle market teams like Houston or St. Louis. Again, if you want to consider these teams small/middle markets, then the Cubs are the only big market team in that 6 team division.
As for football, there are dynasties and eras of good teams, mostly because there is less player movement due to the cap and revenue sharing. But, the dynasties are not necessarily the large markets. You can have sustained success in Pittsburgh, San Diego, Buffalo, Kansas City (at least in the early 90’s), Tampa, etc.
The point is that if you went to a Reds, Bucs, Royals, Indians, or Brewers fan and said, “There will be more dynasties and less chances to make the playoffs, but those that do will not necessarily be big markets. What would you choose?”
I would think the majority of those small market fans choose the NFL system.
Ah yes, the perfect draft….Of course, in another sport – but that is what made the Steelers dominant in the ’70s. Their drafts and undrafted free agent signings were amazingly good. As I recall defensive lineman Tom Keating (from Oakland) was the only player that came from another NFL team to break into Chuck Noll’s starting lineup after 1972 throughout the remainder of the decade and probably longer. Keating did not stay long (1973?) and most years there was not a single player even on their entire roster that had previously played for another organization.
Of course, without McGwire’s unlimited supply of steroids, Pujols may have just been another Ken Harvey.
The most perfect draft in baseball history — now THAT would be an interesting exercise and column. Just how much talent could one hope to get out of a single draft? Here’s hoping someone with more time, talent and resources and I tracks that down…
Thanks for the entry about baseball, Joe!
To back up the Soria thing: IIRC, a similar situation happened with Jonathan Papelbon in Boston. Again, didn’t have a better option, so they left him as a closer.
You have to figure that money plays in some how, Zito got 1.59 million in 1999, and I couldn’t find numbers for Kyle Snyder and Sheets. But still, that would really only apply for the first couple rounds really. Of course, Pujols got a 70K bonus… Anyway, it was a neat exercise, although you could probalby do something similar for any team.
Maybe Will Ferrell and Cheri Oteri can do the PERFECT CHEER for the Royals brass before this years draft. That, I’m sure, would lead to the PERFECT DRAFT!
[...] the road. If a team had just one perfect year ever, they’d be set for a long, long time. In this post, Posnanski shows what just one perfect draft would look like. Suffice to say, the team would be [...]
One more thing on the closer/reliever conversion.
Hoyt Wilhelm, 1959. He has been a reliever for the past 7 years and was converted to a starter for part of that year….went 15-11 and pitched 226 innings with a 2.19 ERA and an All Star appearance…and went back to closing the next. Go figure. I would assume it must have been a preference thing.
JimRI
For whatever reason, knuckleballers were not considered starting material until Tim Wakefield came along. Thus, Wilhelm, both Niekros, Charlie Hough and Wilbur Wood all started as relievers. Eventually, they were all allowed to start and excelled at doing so. I suspect the reason that Wilhelm went back to starting is that the Orioles were developing other younger starters at that point and wanted to get them into that role.
It’s always interesting to see what positions guys played before they were drafted and where they ended up in the bigs. Like Mark Ellis at 2b instead of SS, Brian Roberts at 2b instead of SS, and John Lackey at RHP instead of LHP.
@Sal: If Houston is a middle market, then the only large markets are NY, LA, and CHI. Houston is the 4th largest city in the country.
Which just supports why I say to people that scouts and trainers, are more important than the free agent you sign. Great article Joe. One of your best.
And your column tells us why the Royals are not the Cardinals, A’s, Angels, Brewers, Rays or Twins and will languish as losers for years to come. They don’t know how to draft players.
Kevin,
Pujols has always crushed the ball. If you ever saw him in high school you would realize that steroids once he got into the Cardinals system wouldn’t do any more to help him. They guy was insane, even then. I do remember he was a TERRIBLE short stop in his high school days. I saw a whole lot of him, as my grandpa coached against him and he went to a rival high school. Dude was flat out amazing.
I remember specifically the wood bat tournament at Hidden Valley park. It’s where American Legion teams (17-18 year olds) try to hit the ball out of the infield with a wood bat for the first time in their lives. Pujols crushed a HR to dead center, which then further traveled up the hill behind center. Everyone in the park just shook their heads, THAT was Albert Pujols. For the Royals to have passed over him that many times is a travesty. I do remember hearing rumors before he got drafted that he wanted top dollar, but if you’re into the 17th round, take a freaking shot. He obviously would’ve worked with you.
I think it’s interesting to see how many pitchers are taken and literally waste their arms away in the minors. It makes you realize a large part of these pitchers making it big is pure luck.
and when I talk about TERRIBLE SS, I mean bad. I remember him trying to turn double plays by fielding the ball in the hole and then RUNNING to 2B so he can fire it to 1st. lol. He’s come a long way.
@Matt,
From the census bureau, by Metro Area I get Houston as the 5th largest met area.
But LA is two Houstons and NY is three Houstons. Chicago is Houston + Atlanta.
So the breakdown would seem to be
NY
LA, Chicago
Philly, Miami, Houston, Atlanta, Washington, Phoenix, Boston
Seattle, Bay Area,
Then the Milwaukee, KC types.
That’s a great post. I’m sure you could do that with any team in any year but this one goes to show you that with some young talent already on the ML roster, even being right a quarter of the time would have set them up for years.
Isn’t it obvious? Had the Royals drafted Lackey, Peavy, and Pujols in 1999, their history would have read that when their market value skyrocketed, the Royals let Damon, Beltran, Dye, LACKEY, PEAVY, and PUJOLS get away, because they were unwilling to pay the going rate.
The theory of the One Perfect Draft is all well and good. We have always seen players go in the late rounds who become superstars. The fact is, a far greater percentage of early picks make the major leagues at all, and teams have to grind out at least one or two wise choices each and every year. The Red Sox have done this exceedingly well, and while their money helps them to fill in holes in the roster, it is drafting and development that have generated recent success. Their drafts from 2000 to 2006 are:
2000 Manny Delcarmen
2001 Kelly Shoppach, Kevin Youkilis
2002 Jon Lester, Brandon Moss
2003 Jonathan Papelbon, David Murphy
2004 Dustin Pedroia, Cla Meredith
2005 Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Craig Hansen, Jed Lowrie, Michael Bowden
2006 Justin Masterson, Lars Anderson, Daniel Bard
Every year has generated at least one regular player currently on the 25 man roster. Some are All Stars, one is an MVP (another was third in MVP voting). One pitcher is a lefty horse who has a shot at a CY Young very soon. A few others still have not reached their potential (and might not), while others didn’t pan out, but brought important players back in trades, such as Hansen and Moss did for Jason Bay. Others, such as Lars Anderson are still on the horizon, but it’s fun looking at a player chosen the number eight minor league prospect as he develops.
Teams that can get one star player in each draft will be very successful. That should start filling the stands, increasing revenue, and make for successful teams.
If you are not from KC, or if you are not a fan of the Royals, the Pujols things seems more forgiveable. If you are from KC though, this one really stings. Not only did Pujols play high school and junior college ball in the KC area, he was clearly the most dominant player in the area, and perhaps even the state (this is speculation, pure speculation). The point is that he was really really good: He was an all-state star throughout high school, where in his second year he drew 55 walks in 88 plate appearances; and he continued to dominate at leading up to the draft, including a freakish display of power during his freshman season when he mashed 22 home runs as an 18-year-old.
All of this is to say that KC must have known about Pujols, they had to have known about him. He had been a high school all-star and he was a college standout, and at no time had he ever played more than 25 miles from Kauffman Stadium.
So, yeah, not drafting Pujols stings.
But, even knowing all that, and even adding the additional scorn of knowing that the Royals instead chose the immortal Greg Raymundo (who?), that the Royals didn’t draft Pujols is probably not what stings the most. What stings the most for me is that Pujols was drafted by St. Louis. This means that St. Louis had better scouting in our own back yard, and that hurts, that really really hurts.
Arggh.
BTW, for a real draft that was far from perfect, but pretty darned good, especially since it was the first time these teams had to do it, my money is on the 1965 KC A’s.
First, they had the #1 pick in the very first draft and did not crap the bed, which given the fact that they were the KC A’s, was pretty amazing (they got Rick Monday with that pick, and while he wasn’t the best player out of that draft, he was a solid MLer, even an All-Star caliber player who helped the A’s make their first playoffs in 1971 and then was turned into Ken Holtzman in a trade, which helped the A’s win a few World Championships)
In later rounds they drafted Sal Bando (6th round) and Gino Tenace (20th round). 7 other players drafted by the A’s that year were ML players at one time or another.
“I bring this up to point out that Mariano Rivera, at age 38, had one of the greatest reliever seasons in baseball history last year.”
Joe,
I’ll never understand your infatuation with Rivera while constantly ragging on Dennis Eckersley for being a first ballot Hall of Famer.
Rivera’s 2008 season – 1.40 ERA and .665 WHIP. Pretty damn good I admit.
Can I refer you to Eck’s 1989 and 1990 seasons which were both better? Eck had a combined ERA of 1.03 and a combined WHIP of .610 in those 2 seasons.
Not good enough? How about an 18.28 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio over those 2 seasons. Rivera has never even been close to that.
Maybe I should point out that Eck has a better career WHIP than Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson.
How about the fact his WHIP as a reliever was an amazing .998?
Want to take a guess how many pitchers have a better career WHIP than Eck had in his 2nd career as a closer? Addie Joss. That’s it. (Granted, Rivera’s career WHIP as a reliever is an even better .985 but Rivera hasn’t finished his career yet. Eck pitched until he was 43, let’s see where Rivera ends up if he pitches to 43.)
Have you considered that while Red Sox and Cubs hitters get dinged for playing half their games in Fenway and Wrigley, Eck doesn’t get any credit for spending 10 seasons pitching for the Red Sox and the Cubs?
Craig Hooten:
Good points, of course, if we are going to credit Eck for his years in Fenway and Wrigley, then shouldn’t we discount his numbers at least slightly when pitching in the Grand Canyon, I mean the Oakland Coliseum?
Well, now I just looked and I owe you an apology. Whereas his home stats in 1989 and 1990 are incredibly good, his road stats are breathtaking. How about no walks and 1 run given up on the road in 1990. Yeah, that’s pretty f’ing good.
Both Chicago teams missed Kirby Puckett completely, so … it happens.
I think this hometown thing with Albert Pujols is a little overblown. After all, how many of the greatest players played for their home town teams?
In 1971, the Angels selected Frank Tanana with their 1st round pick and the Dodgers selcted Rick Rhoden. Neither pick was a bad one. In the 2nd round the Royals selected a southern California boy named Brett.
In 1982, the Royals selected Bret Saberhagen, another boy from southern California, in the 19th round. Shall we see who the Dodgers and Angels picked with their picks in the 18 rounds before that. My guess is that none of them were as good as Saberhagen.
Excellent point on the Coliseum being a plus for his career stats.
Of course he pitched 1023 innings in Fenway and Wrigley and only 424 innings in the Colliseum over his career so I don’t think you can quite weight them the same.
Definitely cherry picking here but if you throw out Eck’s innings in Fenway and Wrigley his career ERA falls from 3.50 to 3.19 and his career WHIP falls from an excellent 1.161 to an even better 1.102. That’s not a cheap 1.102 WHIP, that’s 2262 innings of 1.102 WHIP.
I think Joe would have loved the Eck a little more if the Indians hadn’t traded him to the Red Sox in 1978. Career 3.21 ERA and 1.138 WHIP at Cleveland Stadium
I can’t believe you mentioned that Harang was traded to the Reds from Oakland, without mentioning who went back. . . that’s right, it’s your favorite player, Jose Guillen!
I don’t think teams should always look to draft players from their metro area or state, but the Pujols draft decision just rankles me. Pujols was a monster in the area. Yeah, sure, maybe Raymundo could have been the next George Brett, and maybe Pujols could have ended up a giant turd. But with the 391st pick, why wasn’t the scouting director in someone’s ear saying things like “for the love of god just give this local kid a look”?
Also, a big reason this post resonates so loudly with me is because it highlights how absolutely dreadful the Royals used to be on draft day.
Just re-consider some of those decisions:
Jay Gerhke instead of Carl Crawford
Jimmy Gobble instead of John Lackey
Brian Sanches instead of Brandon Phillips
Wes Obermueller instead of Justin Morneau
Kiki Bengochea instead of Hank Blalock
Mackeel Rodgers instead of Putz
Ken Harvey instead of Harang
Ryan Baerlocher instead of Bedard
James McAuley instead of Crisp
Eric Nelson instead of Peavy
Obviously the draft is a crap shoot, and obviously no team will ever have a perfect draft like Joe’s fantasy board. But the striking thing is that out of all these possibilities the Royals didn’t get a single one correct. Not one.
So by the time you get to the Raymundo/Pujols decision, it isn’t just that they missed a pick, it is that they missed ANOTHER pick, and they did it by ignoring probably the best prospect ever from the KC area (more speculation).
* * *
And as an aside, it isn’t as though KC and Southern California are comparable in baseball talent. I don’t have any numbers in front of me, but I’d bet pretty much every dollar in my bank account that in any given year the number of prospects from Southern California at least triples the number from KC. So I would expect that teams in Southern California are always passing up on local talent that later makes a significant impact in the majors. Always.
I’ve always heard stories that teams looked at tapes of Pujols playing and laughed. Apparently he was a “bad bodied” 1st basemen, however he had a great bat. After the Cards drafted him, they gave him a personal trainer, put him on a diet and the rest is history.
There’s no guarantee that even if the Royals had the perfect draft and picked those players, that they would even pan out. Maybe there was a coach or a philosophy that clicked with them, that made them great. That coach or philosophy wouldn’t be there in the Royals organization and they would have been just another no named minor leaguer.
Put the Royals draft picks in a different organization and maybe someone or something clicks with them and suddenly Kiki Bengochea is a household name. That being said, the Royals have certainly had a lot of poor drafts in previous years (hello Colt Griffin). But maybe some of the blame should be on the coaches or trainers.
[...] just can’t get enough of the guy. Today, on his blog, an entry really caught my eye; “The Power of One Draft“. He leads it off by saying We’re going to use the Kansas City Royals as an example, but [...]
FIRST!
deathsinger, please slot Toronto in with Boston and the others.
guelphdad,
If you say so, okay. However, I am not sure that Toronto has the media market that the cities in the US has in terms of baseball (is there a RSN in Toronto?). There is also the tax rate and the Canadian dollar to contend with. So I am not sure that just because Toronto is the size of Boston, that it belongs in that group. I think that the expert on this, is alas dead.
Yes, if a small market team drafts perfectly, they can compete. However, wouldn’t baseball be a lot more fun for everyone, except Yankee fans, if the money was spread around? Teams could be competive any and every year. Oh, that would be wonderful!!!
The BCS mirrors the baseball craziness. The rich do not want to let the little guys have a chance because they may compete.
If only Obama could change the economics of baseball and get a playoff system for football.
@Miles:
After the Cards drafted [Pujols], they gave him a personal trainer, put him on a diet and the rest is history.
Two words: Billy Butler.
The Tigers in ‘76 had a good one
Round 2 – Alan Trammell
Round 4 – Dan Petry
Round 5 – Jack Morris
Round 7 – Ozzie Smith (although he didn’t sign with the Tigers)
While someone brought up the Steelers drafting 4 hall of famers in a draft, in baseball no team has ever drafted 2 in the same draft. Even including the January draft from the same calender year (1980 January, 1980 June drafts for example) or from the following year (80 June, 81 January) it hasn’t happened. In fact most times a HOF player is drafted, the rest of the teams draft seems to lack any talent. It’s just so hard to have a good draft let alone ace one. Of course this begs the question of what was the greatest draft ever.
If we’re basing it on simply who was selected rather than who was selected and signed the 1976 Tigers look to have the title. This is a little surprising in that their first selection (2nd overall) was pitcher Pat Underwood who produced pretty much nothing, but the rest made up for it I’d say.
(2.2)26th overall – Alan Trammell
(4.2)74th overall – Dan Petry
(5.2)98th overall – Jack Morris
(7.2)146th overall – Ozzie Smith (didn’t sign)
There’s nothing else worth noting (expect that they drafted shortstops in the 6th and 8th giving them 4 in the first 8 rounds) but these 4 players are enough to give them the title. A hall of fame shortstop who didn’t sign, A starting pitcher and a shortstop who have been debated for the hall many times and a starter who pitched over 2000 innings with an ERA+ of 102.
So yes Joe’s right. There is hope in any draft. In 1984 Trammel was probably the Tigers best player, while Morris and Petry were an excellent 1-2. Those 3 played a huge part in leading the Tigers to a World Series. So then I guess the last question then is how much better could it have been if the Tigers had max value for their other picks? How about Mike Scott in the 1st, Rickey Henderson in the 3rd and Wade Boggs in the 6th for starters. Now that would’ve been a draft.
I guess I should’ve refreshed before posting as kevin beat me to it.
Not perfect, but the Rays’ 2004 draft has some good names:
1st round – Jeff Niemann: Won’t be a dominant ace like everyone thought at the time, but he should get his shot at some point this year
2nd round – Reid Brignac: Still a solid SS prospect
3rd round – Wade Davis: Top-50 prospect
5th round – Jake McGee: Would be top-50 prospect if he didn’t get hurt. We’ll see how he comes back from Tommy John. Future closer candidate
7th round – Fernando Perez: At the very least, a speedy 4th OF with great defense
13th round – Andy Sonnanstine: Great back-of-the-rotation guy
Re: Houston..
I used to work in tv in Houston (was lucky enough to be there during their ‘glory days’).. People there loved to throw out the ‘4th largest city’ stat, but in media market terms (which is what matters for tv and baseball) we were #11 at the time. I think Houston may have jumped past Detroit into 10th, but I’m not in a spot I can check. The point is – Houston has an unusually large percentage of its market in the city limits, with a relatively small proportion in suburbs.
Where have you gone, James McAuley?
BTW, Joe. I commend you for yet another brilliant post, but is there any way you could hold off on the Royals posts that are nearly certain to drive a man to drink. Please? Just until pitchers and catchers report. After that it’s, “Confiscate the sharp objects and shoelaces,Loretta.”
A perfect draft is nine other teams passing on Tim Lincecum so the Giants could draft him!
On a side note how long till Adam Dunn drops his wage demands (I’ve read he wants four years and $56m) so the Giants can sign him. I know they are really valuing defence but if there is one position you can aford to have a poor defender, (especially in the non-DH NL) then its at 1B. I think hes the the best option at the moment without having to
a) trade either Sanchez or Lowry
b) wait until mid-season to pull the trigger on something
The famous draft of the Dodgers 1968 is a good one. The players they got were Bill Buckner, Steve Garvey, Ron Cey, Davey Lopes, Bobby Valentine, Geoff Zahn, Joe Ferguson and Tom Paciorek.
The whole infield plus some other good pieces. No hall of famers but a lot of solid players who were the core of the great 70s teams.
[...] am stealing this from Joe Posnanski’s blog here. It is a great piece on how Kansas City royaly failed thier 1999 draft and how it could’ve [...]
I don’t recall there ever being any debate in the Twins organization about the future of Johan. He was always going to be a starter, it was just a question of when. The Twins love veterans, especially starting pitchers. To a fault, really. Look at Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson, and Livan Hernandez in recent years to name just a few.
In 2001, Johan was a reliever and occasional spot starter to get his feet wet in the majors. In 2002, he started the year in the minors to work on his changeup. He was called up at the end of May as an injury replacement for a starter and when the starter returned he was too good to send back to the minors, so they kept him in the bullpen as a long reliever to help out a team in a pennant race.
In 2003, Eric Milton hurt his knee in spring training and everyone assumed that a spot finally had opened for Johan, but the Twins surprised most by signing Kenny Rogers for the season, which kept Johan in the bullpen. When Joe Mays pitched himself out of the rotation, Johan finally was inserted into the rotation after the AS break and I seem to remember the Twins announcing then and there that it finally was a permanent switch to starter for him.
Also, when the Twins traded for Joe Nathan, it wasn’t like they had acquired a sure-fire closer. He had one career save at that point and only one good season as a setup man. In fact, the Twins were still working on re-signing Guardado when they made the trade. Also, the Twins started to get concerned about Nathan’s velocity in spring training and even early in the season. Also, Juan Rincon was a long reliever with very modest numbers the previous season, so the Twins were very concerned about their bullpen, but I don’t remember once manager Ron Gardenhire or GM Terry Ryan ever saying that Johan was being considered for the bullpen. It turned out that the bullpen was the real strength of that 2004 team, but it didn’t look that way going in.
The Red Sox have had some amazing drafts in the pre-Theo era, too, though they certainly hit several dry spells. Check these out….
1968: Cecil Cooper (6), Ben Ogilvie (11), Bill Lee (22), John Curtis (1).
1976: Wade Boggs (7), Bruce Hurst (1), John Tudor (3-January), plus several useful players like Glenn Hoffman, Mike Smithson, Terry Leach, Gary Allenson, and Reid Nichols.
1983: Roger Clemens (1), Ellis Burks (1–January).
1989: Jeff Bagwell (4), Mo Vaughn (1), Paul Quantrill (6).
And for Joe, 1971: Jim Rice (1), Duane Kuiper (4). Too bad they never signed Kuiper; perhaps the Curse would have been broken long before it became so profitable for Dan Shaughnessy.
The point about Pujols isn’t just that he was so great and played right under the Royals’ noses. It’s also that he’s probably the greatest player ever to come out of an area that doesn’t produce a lot of players. It’d be like Cleveland inexplicably failing to draft Lebron James.
Joe,
Fantastic post. But rather than focus on who we didn’t get, I think the onus is on KC for not both keeping our talent healthy and coaching it well. It’s clear to me that we’ve had the worst minor league coaching in baseball since the late 1990s. Wow.
- TL
Take the Royals to task for missing on Pujols if you want, but make sure to take every other team (including the cardinals) to task while you’re at it. Nobody had even the mildest inkling of what he was going to become, as every team passed on him 12 times.
Before they turned into Kansas City on ice (and they may yet move there!), the NY Islanders had some sensational drafts…
1972 (their first year) – Billy Harris (1), Lorne Henning (2), Bobby Nystrom (3). (Harris was a main piece in the 1980 trade that brought in Butch Goring.)
1974 – Clark Gillies (1), Bryan Trottier (2)
1977 – Mike Bossy (1), John Tonelli (2)
Nothing quite like that in later years, of course, but even then, the Isles had six picks in ‘76, and ALL of them eventually played in the NHL; in ‘91 AND ‘93 their top SEVEN players all reached the NHL. That’s not easy to do. Of course most of their great draft picks of recent note have all made their big impacts elsewhere, which illustrates one of Poz’s points – who’s to say that these players would have been the same had the Isles kept them over these past seasons? I like to think so, but an awful lot of kids floundered there for 1-3 years before suddenly blossoming the moment they got off Long Island. A depressing list (for an Isles fan like me) can be made of those they drafted, obtained and then squandered, or should have drafted instead:
G – Luongo
D – Chara, Brewer, McCabe, Berard (pre eye injury)
FW – Bertuzzi, Jokinen, Parise (instead of Nilsson), Heatley (instead of DiPietro), Zajac OR Wolski (instead of Nokelainen), Paul Stastny (instead of Ryan O’Marra)
I dont recall (with my memory very young at the time) that Pujols had a bad body. I seem to remember him being so ripped they had to carry his birth certificate (and you can debate its validity all you want) to every game. Dude was a man among boys. Perhaps that’s why they past him up, thought the competition he was up against was just not there.
As I’ve said numerous times at Bucco Blog, the Pirates are a great example of the power of no drafts for 10 years PLUS no development staff for 10 years. Guess that’s what you get when you don’t give your scouts their paychecks.
I don’t know where else to put this, so I’ll put this here.
I sure hope Bruce doesn’t play anything from his new album at the Super Bowl. When the Rolling Stones did the show a few years ago, the played at least one (and maybe two) songs from whatever album they had coming out. And it was terrible because A), the Stones haven’t done any good new songs in 30 years and B) the Super Bowl is not the place to be trotting out new stuff that nobody’s ever heard before.
I appreciate that the Stones wanted to continue to seem relevant as a rock band, by playing new stuff instead of just devolving into, in essence, a cover band of themselves, playing nothing but their own greatest hits. And also that they wanted to promote their new album. But it’s the Super Bowl halftime show, not a Rolling Stones concert. You’ve got 15 minutes to do 3 songs. Do 3 classic hits that everyone can sing and jump around to and get out of there. Trot out your new stuff on your own time, as it were.
I hope Bruce does not make the same mistake (and I don’t think he will). I also would bet anything that he will not play The Rising, having just tied that inextricably to Obama over the weekend at the inaugural concert. And I don’t think he’ll play Born in the USA because for 25 years people have misunderstood it as a rah-rah patriotic song and why would he want to further that? I voted for Waiting on a Sunny Day, Rosalita and Glory Days, but only because Born to Run would be so predicatable. He probably will play Born to Run.
“I suspect the reason that Wilhelm went back to starting is that the Orioles were developing other younger starters at that point and wanted to get them into that role.”
Milt Pappas, Jack Fisher and Chuck Estrada come to mind and I’m missing someone. I had a BB card that had 3 young aces with those three (IIRC).
This whole post seems kinda unfair. Very rarely does a team in any sport manage to truly maximize even two draft picks in a single draft.
You could do this same exercise with the Phillies, a championship team stocked with homegrown stars, and make it look like their drafting has been moronic.
In football, I always feel like if your draft regularly nets you three average-to-good starters, just one of whom turns out to be very good, you are going to contend every year. What’s a fair standard for a baseball draft?
As a sometimes horseplayer, this exercise seems like looking back over a day’s races and saying, geez, I COULD have picked the winner in all ten races today. And if I had I’d be rich!
I think we have a lot of wishful thinkers on Bruce’s set at the Super Bowl. I’d bet dollars to donut holes that he plays something from teh new album — probably Waiting on a Dream based on how the songs have been released to radio. He also is just about certain to play Born to Run — you may say it’s predictable, but it’s predictable at every one of his concerts, and he ALWAYS plays BTR. Pretty much everything else has fallen out of his set at one point or another — Promised Land, Thunder Road, Rosie, even Badlands.
I think the 3rd song is the most difficult to predict. I can almost guarantee it will not be Rosalita, much as I wish he would. Too long and not well known enoough by the mainstream. My gut tells me he’ll go fairly modern with the 3rd, maybe The Rising, as his tying to Obama might increase its chances, or perhaps Radio Nowhere. Or he might go older but realy well known — Dancing in the Dark or Glory Days or something. Maybe he’ll surprise us, and I hope he will, but I expect a very predictable set, 1 from new album, 1 other well known hit, probably fairly recent and BTR.
It would be great if Bruce didn’t play anything from the new album. I think it’s his least memorable album ever.
I just about fell off my chair when I read Peter King saying it would go down as one of Bruce’s best albums ever. He’s nuts. In two years nobody will remember this record ever came out at all.
There are a lot of big time Bruce fans here, including our host, so I’ll be eager to read other thoughts on the record. It bummed me out. I’ll nominate “Queen of the Supermarket” as a career low point for Bruce.
I’m still psyched beyond belief to see Bruce at the Super Bowl.
I basically agree with JeffSol: Waiting on a Dream, Badlands, Born To Run
Waiting on a Dream or Promised Land … sort of tying in to the game. He plays one of those, probably in the middle. (If memory serves Tom Petty played Runnin’ Down a Dream in his set last year.)
Might open with Badlands and close with Born To Run.
I don’t think he’ll do Rosalita because it’s a seven-minute song not counting the five-minute intro.
deathsinger
Sorry not sure you what you mean exactly about the Toronto market. The original post was by size of Metro area was it not? Metro Toronto has 5 million+ people. I was thinking it needed to be listed.
If you are looking at Toronto their recent payroll topped out at around $100 million.
As for media coverage Toronto has 4 major daily newspapers, 3 24 hr/day TV sports networks (2 of them countrywide) and a 24 hr/day sports radio network.
Sure hockey is #1 up here, but the Jays coverage tops that of the Raptors and our local Canadian Football League team the Argos.
It isn’t like we’re in the boonies up here or anything.
The 2003 Rangers were a REALLY fun team to watch. I think I saw ~150 of their games on FOX that year. That was the year when a lot of fuss was made over the fact that they were the first team ever to have a 300 homer guy, a 400 homer guy and a 500 homer guy in the lineup. (A-Rod, Gonzalez, Raffy)
Their outfield platoon situation wasn’t too shabby either. Glanville, Laynce Nix, Ruben Sierra, Kevin Mench (who was always a fan favorite at Texas, and for some reason was never considered more than a part-time player, which was crazy because he’d post league average OBPs with good power.) The interminable Carl Everett was on that team and got half a season’s worth of at-bats.
There were the usual scrubs too, though Showalter was pretty decent at not letting those suck up too many at-bats.
That team finished first in homeruns and I think at the time set a record for homeruns hit by a team.
Ofcourse, the reason they lost 91 games is because they had almost no pitchers whatsoever that should ever be on a Major League mound. Many games they’d be behind by five or six runs after two innings, would come back within 2 or 1 because of their offense, only to watch the bullpen cough up another 5 runs.
Coco Cordero was there, and he was good. And they still had Ugie, who still struck out a ton of guys, but always struggled to keep guys off base. Their “ace” that year was John Thomson, who threw 200+ innings, and every single one of them was excruciating to watch. Colby Lewis was the big “prospects” out of their system, and FOX loved telling everyone that he “pitched to the score.”
In other words, he managed to “win” because he has a fabulous offense behind him, while at the same time he allowed 2 baserunners an inning and gave up a million runs.
That was their 1-2 “punch.” Chan Ho Park was supposed to be their ace, but he got injured pretty quickly and was out for most of the season.
I think it was that year that started Josh Lewin’s famous “And suddenly it’s an eight to THREE ballgame!” slogan, because boy he sure used it often that year.
But hey, there was always excitement in those games.
I always loved how they figured that they would be better off without Alex Rodriguez. Yes, because getting rid of the best player in the game (BY FAR in those days) is always a great idea. The 25 million dollars A-Rod was making weren’t really the problem. The problem was the money shoved at corpses like Park and all the other junk they considered worthy of the title “pitcher.”
If there is a chance the KC Royals will screw it up, they will be all over it. Look for Aviles (2008 breakout star) to get a tour of duty at various outfield positions. Why? Because that is how the Royals do it, that’s why! I didn’t say it had to make sense (see Teahen, 3B)…
I’d be delighted if Bruce played ANYTHING from Asbury Park.
I’m w/Tracey. I think media market size is far more important than metro population in determining whether a team is “big” or “small” market.
Here’s 2007 Designated Market Size numbers I got off the Internet last year. Not sure if Nielsen was the original source. In millions of TV homes:
NY 7.4
LA 5.6
CHI 3.5
PHI 2.9
SF-OAK-San Jose; DAL; BOS 2.4
WAS 2.3
ATL 2.2
HOU 2.0
DET 1.9
TAM 1.8
Phoeniz; SEA; MIN-St Paul 1.7
MIA; CLE 1.6
DEN; Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne; Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto 1.4
STL; PIT 1.2
Portland (OR); BAL 1.1
IND; Charlotte; SD; Hartford/New Haven; Raleigh-Durham 1
Nashville; KC; Columbus (OH); CIN; MIL 0.9
While there are all kinds of definitional issues with these numbers, for example WAS and BAL as different markets, there is a 20-25% gap in market size between franchises at the bottom of this list and the next tier of BAL, STL, PIT.
Minnesota is not really a small market when compared to those 6 franchises. Philadelphia has been a sleeping giant if this list is meaningful. Same with the Dodgers of recent years (assuming an even market split with the Angels).
The White Sox/Cubs, if they split the market in CHI (and ignoring WGN’s reach) are really at the Minnesota market level. However, given the Cubs’ advantage in their home market and their national cable broadcasting realistically make them a big market team. The White Sox are the 2nd team in the market and on WGN and are more of a mid-market team.
Even assuming only half of the NY market belongs to the Yankees, and no out-of-market cable revenue, the 3.8M TV homes is still 30% bigger than PHI, the next biggest one-team market. The Yankees (and Mets) home market is 4 times the size of the bottom 3 (CIN, KC, MIL). You can make a lot of drafting mistakes and still succeed with that kind of advantage – or draft very well and still fail if you are on the short end of the stick.
oops, left San Diego out of the bottom three vs. next tier comparison. And this is only US TV markets; don’t know how that affects them as a border town or Toronto as a Canadian market.
Joe great post. I love the comments too, everyone tell me, why should the Yankees share their money with the rest of you, All the monies that you get already you put in your pockets. just look up what each team gets from fox & espn, then the money they get for being small market as well as small minded. most of the money they receive goes south!! if they put the money back into their team, maybe they could pay above the slot and get the player they really want. The BOSS has the money, but he always puts it into his team, can you tell me that other owners do the same, some of the small market teams have richer owners then the Yanks, they just don’t want to SHOW YOU THE MONEY!! They want to take the money they get from TV and teams like the Yanks and you and never spend it where it was intended. Like spending it on your team. They just don’t care about their fans and the fans care more about their team then the owners!!
How much would it have cost the Royals to sign Sheets and Dunn this offseason instead of the players they picked up instead? Sheets at least is good when he’s healthy, and Dunn is an offensive force who should be placed at DH and left to do his thing. Those two players alone could’ve made the team much more competitive and fun to watch. Maybe sparked some interest, got people talking.
The Chiefs pretty much went wrong at around the same time as the Royals, the late 1990s (though they did have the one big 13-3 year under Vermeil. No playoff wins of course.)
Too bad both teams didn’t change management ten years ago and bring in good talent evaluators. At least the Chiefs seem to have finally done that. The Royals? Not so much.
Sal, #6 Post
mentioned an interesting idea.
He said a fan of the Brewers (or other similarly situated teams) despite the supposedly superior competitive balance of baseball over football would choose the NFL system over the MLB, because it provides greater opportunity for dynasty’s and continued success among small market teams. In baseball as a small market team, you might have one or two good years, while in a football a small market team can be great for a long time.
As a Wisconsinite, our states sports teams perfectly illustrate this point. We have the Packers who led by Brett Favre, dominated while I was in grade school, middle school, and high school, and then gradually diminished to a merely competitive team while I was in college through to the present day. 15-20 years of sustained success. One Super Bowl ring, one more Super Bowl Appearance, numerous appearances in the the NFC Championship match, and countless division championships or Wild Card berths. and importantly, is there a smaller market team than Green Bay in any of the big three professional sports?
Meanwhile over that same time period the Brewers have simply sucked. Sustained failure, mismanagement, and shoddy attempts to even placate the fan base for most of my life. Around the turn of the century Jack Zdurienzik (current Mariners GM) had some good drafts setting up eventual success for the 2003 upper management change and in 2006(?) we got new ownership. These three events have come together and finally paid off with our first post season appearance in my life time.
Now the question Sal posed was which system would you prefer. I think he’s right that no small market fan in their right mind would prefer the system that makes it harder for small market teams. But remarkably (and maybe this says something about whether or not I’m in my right mind) I’m more excited about the Brewers success than anything the Packers do right now, and largely this is a product of the unlikeliness of them succeeding continuously. This makes their window smaller and thus heightens my hopes and anticipations. Cause if they don’t win right now (which is looking likely) It could easily be another +25 years before they have that chance again.
Even though baseball makes it harder on small market teams, their chances for brief, surprising, and unsustained success in the face of the traditional, perennial dynasties, is more exciting. Maybe I’m just a masochist, enjoying the punishment. But I like knowing that a few teams are gonna dominate every year, but there’s gonna be at least one small team from somewhere that breaks out, overachieves, and challenges the big boys in the playoffs. The long hard toil for fleeting rewards just feels right and good. And so does the David vs. Goliath underdog story.
So to conclude, I guess I’d keep it the way it is. I like the differences in the systems, the chance to compare and contrast, and the different natures of the professional sports.
Now when it comes to basketball and the Milwaukee Bucks, I’m lost.
guelphdad,
I was pointing out that not all market sizes are created equal. Shanghi has a huge market, but probably couldn’t support an MLB team. Since all I know about Canada is from transplanted Canadians, all I can deduce is that Hockey is #1. Ice Hockey is #2. Some sport with a puck on ice with sticks is #3. Thinking about Hockey is #4 and minor league hockey is #5.
So I was insinuating that maybe Toronto should be thought of as a smaller market than its population because of other factors. I know that some players in the past didn’t like the tax rate or the exchange rate and wanted a premium to play there.
Am I right? probably not.
all of you bitching about the baseball salary cap are wrong.
read this article and you will change your mind.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8409
Joe,
I tuned into MLB TV last night not long before Jon Stewart and found them, essentially, rehashing your post. They went through this Royals draft and everything. I tuned in a little late, but watched for a few minutes AND THEY NEVER CREDITED YOU. Did they? If not, I’d complain. Anybody else see this?
I saw it too. They spent twelve minutes comparing the snugglie to the sham-wow. Now that’s just a blatant rip-off.
Hello Joe. Great post as always.
Here’s a breakdown of what the Edmonton Oilers did when they entered the NHL from the World Hockey Association (my apologies for the length). Their roster was stripped down to two
players! One of them was Wayne Gretzky.
1979 Draft (21 Teams, 6 rounds)
21. Kevin Lowe (Defense, multiple All-Star)
CAREER NHL STATISTICS
Years Teams Games Played Goals Assists Points Penalty Minutes
1979-1998 Edmonton, N.Y. Rangers 1,254 84 347 431 1,498
CAREER NHL PLAYOFF STATISTICS
Years Teams Games Played Goals Assists Points Penalty Minutes
1980-1998 Edmonton, N.Y. Rangers 214 10 48 58 192
48. Mark Messier (Forward, Hockey Hall of Fame)
CAREER NHL STATISTICS
Years Teams Games Played Goals Assists Points Penalty Minutes
1979-2004 EDM, NYR, VAN 1,756 694 1,193 1,887 1,910
CAREER NHL PLAYOFF STATISTICS
Years Teams Games Played Goals Assists Points Penalty Minutes
1980-1997 Edmonton, NYR 236 109 186 295 244
69. Glenn Anderson (Forward, Hockey Hall of Fame)
CAREER NHL STATISTICS
Years Teams Games Played Goals Assists Points Penalty Minutes
1980-1996 EDM, TOR, NYR, STL 1,129 498 601 1,099 1,120
CAREER NHL PLAYOFF STATISTICS
Years Teams Games Played Goals Assists Points Penalty Minutes
1981-1996 EDM, TOR, NYR, STL 225 93 121 214 442
1980 Draft (21 Teams, 10 rounds)
6. Paul Coffey (Defense, Hockey Hall of Fame)
CAREER NHL STATISTICS
Years Teams Games Played Goals Assists Points Penalty Minutes
1980-2000 EDM, PIT, LA, DET,
HA/CA, PHI, CHI, BOS 1,409 396 1,135 1,531 1,802
CAREER NHL PLAYOFF STATISTICS
Years Teams Games Played Goals Assists Points Penalty Minutes
1981-1999 Edmonton, Pitt., L.A.,
Detroit, Phil., Hart./Car. 194 59 137 196 264
69. Jari Kurri (Forward, Hockey Hall of Fame)
CAREER NHL STATISTICS
Years Teams Games Played Goals Assists Points Penalty Minutes
1980-1998 Edmonton, LA, NYR,
Anaheim, Colorado 1,251 601 797 1,398 545
CAREER NHL PLAYOFF STATISTICS
Years Teams Games Played Goals Assists Points Penalty Minutes
1981-1998 Edmonton, LA, NYR,
Anaheim, Colorado 200 106 127 233 123
132. Andy Moog (Goalie, multiple All-Star)
CAREER NHL STATISTICS
Years Teams Games Won-Lost-Tied Goals Against Avg Shutouts SaVe%
1980-1998 Edmonton, Boston, Dallas, Montreal 713 372-209-88 3.13 28 .892
CAREER NHL PLAYOFF STATISTICS
Years Teams Games Won-Lost-Tied Goals Against Avg Shutouts SaVe%
1981-1998 Edmonton, Boston, Dallas, Montreal 132 68-57 3.04 4 n/a
1981 Draft (21 Teams, 11 rounds)
8. Grant Fuhr (Goalie, Hockey Hall of Fame)
CAREER NHL STATISTICS
Years Teams Games Won-Lost-Tied Goals Against Avg Shutouts SaVe%
1981-2000 EDM, TOR, BUF, LA, STL, CGY 868 403-295-114 3.38 25 .887
CAREER NHL PLAYOFF STATISTICS
Years Teams Games Won-Lost-Tied Goals Against Avg Shutouts SaVe%
1982-1999 EDM, BUF, STL 150 92-50 2.92 6 n/a
Thery also picked Steve Smith and Walt Poddubny, respectable players but not in the same category as the above.
No surprise the Oilers won 5 Stanley Cups in 7 years! Even a lifelong New York Islanders fan like me has to give them their due, and I haven’t gotten over the Oilers stopping the Islanders’ Stanley Cup run at 4!
Yeah I saw the MLB Network rip off too. Same angle on the same draft a day later? I think you deserve at least a Harold Reynolds hat tip.
Dusty,
I’ve read tons of articles similar to the BP one you pointed to and I remain unconvinced. Of course, that’s because I’m in the rare position of pulling for a team with a mid-sized payroll (Toronto) that happens to play in a division with the two teams that have been 1-2 in payroll in recent years (I know Boston shed some dollars and was only fourth this year.)
As a Jays’ fan, my team would tend to survive above the salary floor, but finally wouldn’t have another team with more than double my team’s payroll and another team that has a payroll that’s generally been anywhere from $35 to $50 million higher PLUS a really smart front office to go along with it.
The perfect draft scenario is a nice pipe dream, but if your team’s best hopes rely on your scouting department being infinitely smarter and luckier than anyone else’s (not just smarter and luckier, but HISTORICALLY, UNBELIEVABLY smarter and luckier,) well, good luck with that…
Of course, a team could go the Tampa Bay route and suck terribly for 10 years, but I can honestly say that would kill baseball in a lot of cities. I’m not ready for the Blue Jays to head to Portland or Vegas. Look at the Rays – a division title earned them the distinction of finishing 12th of 14 in league attendance. That’ll improve next year, I’m sure, but if they regress to the mean, will the improvement continue?
Sadly, 2008 was likely the Jays’ best shot for a while. They were one of the two or three best teams in the AL based on any measure of higher-order wins, but they happened to play in a division with the four best teams in the league and had some bad luck on top of that, which depressed their expected record (their hitting with RISP was atrocious, particularly in the season’s first half.) Though I expect better offense next year, they’re going into 2009 with two healthy, established starters, one of whom is an ace and another of whom is a bit of a crapshoot. No way they compete in the AL East. Not a chance. And I doubt they’d agree to realignment, due to the attendance boosts they get when they host Boston and New York.
I was lucky enough to see my team win it all in ‘92 and ‘93, and I’m glad I did. Without major changes in one way or another, it’s probably the last time they’ll win it all in my lifetime.
Dave E.–I saw it too. Completely and totally blatant plagiarism. No mention of Joe whatsoever. They even had a graphic highlighting the Royals’ picks and the exact same guys that Joe noted could have been drafted. All that after a piece that essentially featured NO ANALYSIS. They just basically said, “Well, the Royals got a few guys this offseason, and if their young players perform well, then they’ll be good.” Really? Thanks for that tremendous insight, geniuses.
I have NOT been impressed with MLB TV thus far.
It must be an honor to be plagiarized by MLB TV. Good work, although I doubt you will get that royalty check.
Baseball absolutly needs a salary cap. The NFL would not be where it is today without having a salary cap. Parity makes the league exciting. Baseball has very little parity. Last year the Yankees payroll was around $80 million more than the #2 team. If that does not signal a problem then nothing will.
I’ve been very impressed with MLB TV so far. I mean, studio analysis is terrible for any sport on any station in any format. But the other stuff has been great. Dan Plesac is stupid, Barry Larkin is Emmitt Smith Jr. but Matt Vasgersian and HR are pretty decent.
Last year the Yankees payroll was around $80 million more than the #2 team. If that does not signal a problem then nothing will.
This argument would be more convincing if the Yankees had actually made the playoffs.
I liked MLB TV before this. Now? I may never watch again. Joe, I hope you read this and complain to them. It was sooo blatant.
As for the Yankees/Salary cap issue, the Yankees had the best record in baseball this decade. The fact that they have not won a WS is random luck. You can’t buy a WS, but to say there is too-little relation to spending and winning to feel a cap is needed is silly.
Old Flattop,
The fact of the matter is, their margin for error is greater than that of any other team. Imagine if any other team got a sub-league-average ERA from a $16 million starter (Pettitte), next to nothing from a $10 million starter (Pavano) and a $4 million starter (Igawa), less than a third of a season from their $12 million catcher (Posada), half a season of 108 OPS+ from a $13 million outfielder (Matsui)…
That’s $55 million pretty much squandered – more than the entire payrolls of some entire teams – and that’s not even taking into account the $44 million they spent on Giambi and Jeter, both of whom produced but neither of whom came close to living up to their deals.
If you’re insistent that the teams have to make the playoffs for the salary to make a difference, how about the ‘07 Yanks? Think of what the Yanks got from Giambi, Matsui, Damon, Mussina, Clemens, Pavano, Farnsworth and Igawa. That’s over $90 million on guys who were hurt or league-average at best. Big name brands, sure, but hardly worth the money. Of course, because the Yanks had $110 million to spend on top of those guys, it wasn’t that big a deal…you can make up for a lot of missteps when you can afford to field the equivalent of two full big-market teams worth of payroll.
Nightfly, #57:
The Islanders also drafted two excellent defensemen in 1974, Dave Langevin (#7) and Stefan Persson (#14). Both of them were key members of the Cup teams, and absolute steals in later rounds. BTW, people often wonder why Trottier was taken in the 2nd round. There was a rule in 1974 that 18-year-olds could be drafted, but not before round 2; otherwise Trottier would’ve definitely been a first-rounder.
It’s very painful seeing how that once-great franchise has fallen apart, and your list of “could’ve beens” is really depressing. We also missed out on Jason Spezza, who almost surely would’ve been taken with the pick traded to Ottawa with Chara for the great Alexei Yashin…sigh….
I just watched Rick Reilly rip off Joe’s post on Sportscenter.
Yeah Tampa Mike, if only a small market team like Tampa could hope to somehow compete with the likes of the Yankees…
I don’t know what it means but only 6 of the 27 pitchers used by the Rangers in 2003 threw a pitch in MLB in 2008.
I think this should give us hope—since Allard is gone…we HAVE to get better, right!!??
Also–for the record, Kyle Snyder came out of college with arm problems–we ALL knew that, so why was anyone surprised that a 6′6”pitcher with a history of arm trouble struggled in the bigs?? Go figure…ah, give me the days when the Royals would spend their #1 pick on a projected DH–Juan LeBron!! (OK, so he could not make it as a DH either!) Who would ever have a young player who could ONLT be a DH???? The Royals would NEVER make that mistake again!!??
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/best-outfield-arms-of-2008/ – the single best reason to like the crisp trade. scrole down to the “park effects” section.
Pat Hobby,
The fact of the matter is, the Rays were terrible for years and finally had a ton of high picks mature at the same time. They look to actually have a window now – they could be competitive for a few years in a row with the core they have – but what happens when those guys all start cashing in and price themselves out of Tampa’s range? The team will likely enter another fallow period (or enjoy some sustained middling success – not enough to make the playoffs, but enough to ensure that they won’t be drafting first overall for a while.)
Teams like the Yankees have a built-in advantage that’s extremely hard to overcome. That they missed the playoffs once in 14 years isn’t exactly proof positive that there’s parity, especially when missing the playoffs means that they’re going to go out and retool by signing three guys that most of the other teams couldn’t dream of affording.
I’m sure I’d be far more blase about the whole thing if my team played in any other division and didn’t start each year with the odds stacked massively against them, but as a Jays fan, it’s just really dispiriting to look at what New York can do and realize that the road to the playoffs almost always goes through Yankee stadium.
Bruce better play Thunder Road!!!! It’s his best song by far.
Ted,
Am I wrong, or are you being sarcastic? The park effects listed would seemingly help to make Crisp an overrated CF. If it is otherwise, please correct me.
I once looked up a similar thing for my beloved (and yet hated) Pirates- what if they could just draft the right players in the first round? From 1997-2006 (allowing enough time for some prospects to develop and make it the majors or close to it) the Pirates drafted in the top 15 every single year but one and produced almost zero Major League talent.
Here is who they drafted:
2006- Brad Lincoln (Blown Out Elbow)
2005- Andrew McCutchen (The Only Very Good Prospect)
2004- Neil Walker (Looks like a Backup Infielder)
2003- Paul Maholm (Solid ML Starting Pitcher)
2002- Brian Bullington (Blew out his arm)
2001- John VanBenschoten (Blew out his arm)
2000- Sean Burnett (Blew out his arm; is now an OK reliever)
1999- Bobby Bradley (Blew out his arm)
1998- Clint Johnston
1997- J.J. Davis
Here is a list of who they could have drafted, and this isn’t just cherry-picking the best players from the draft, all of these guys were drafted within 10 spots after the Pirates’ selection so it would have been reasonable for them to make these picks instead.
2006- Tim Lincecum
2005- Jay Bruce
2004- Jered Weaver
2003- John Danks
2002- Prince Fielder
2001- Casey Kotchman
2000- Adam Wainwright
1999- Ben Sheets
1998- C.C. Sabathia
1997- Lance Berkman
Look at those 10 players. Just having a better eye for elite talent would have altered the course of the entire franchise.
Justin, that is simply untrue about the Rays. They had 2 high picks who contributed during the year, Longoria and Upton. Price was helpful down the stretch (all of 14 innings) and in the post-season, but really had little to do with getting there.
One could argue that Garza is a third in that he was acquired in a deal for first pick Delmon Young. But note that the trade included Bartlett (and 2 minor leaguers) who would not have been sent over had the Rays not included Harris, a scrap heap pickup, and that it is unlikely the Rays would have done Garza for Young straight up.
In any case, the rest of the team was acquired in trades (Navarro, Gross, Aybar, Howell, Balfour et al), scrap heap pickups (Pena), free agency (Iwamura) and lower draft choices (Crawford in the 2nd round, Shields in the 6th, Sonnanstine in the 13th). This team was not assembled primarily from high draft choices. In fact, Boston had the same number of 1st round choices who contributed significantly (Ellsbury & Lowrie) and 3 more second round choices (Pedroia, Lester, Delcarmon & Masterson).
Pos, this is the kind of obsessive stuff I used to think about when I was like 12 years old…Nice read though…
“If you are right on the draft, really right, you can beat every team out there no matter how many billion they might spend.”
…unless you’re the Rangers
The Royals would have done what the Royals always do…given the choice players to New York or Boston.
[...] International Entertainment News added an interesting post on The Power of One DraftHere’s a small excerptWe’re going to use the Kansas City Royals as an example, but you can obviously do the following with any team. [...]
[...] to write was just a quick link to a great Joe Posnanski story from January 20, 2009, called “The Power of One Draft“. If you’ve read it, you know why it’s so cool. If not, I recommend you read it [...]