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	<title>Comments on: Going Dark</title>
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	<description>A Rough Draft Blog</description>
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		<title>By: Richard Aronson</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-49169</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard Aronson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Jan 2009 23:05:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-49169</guid>
		<description>My degree is in American history.  My five presidential HOF votes were the top five vote getters last I looked.  Depending on ones perspective on what is most important in a president, I can see why any of the top five might get edged out by a few others.  We not only have a lot fewer presidents than we do baseball players, but they generally have shorter careers.  And how do we normalize presidential stats between guys before we went coast to coast and after, or guys who were &quot;lucky&quot; enough to be perceived as a strong wartime president and those guys who either were elected in time of peace or were adroit enough diplomats to avoid war?  What about a guy like Quincy Adams, who may have been the greatest Secretary of State we ever had?  Does writing the Monroe doctrine earn him points as president?  But even though I voted for (say) Lincoln and Washington, I can see how some folks with strong opinions might not vote for Washington (kept slaves, really was a better general than president) or Lincoln (couldn&#039;t reach a diplomatic solution to avoid the Civil War).  Even though he was a crook, Nixon started the EPA, (eventually) got us out of Vietnam, normalized relations with China and the USSR, pushed the nuclear clock backwards, and yet some of my friends cite him as being the worst ever for Watergate and for some of what he had Kissinger and the U.S. Military do in southeast Asia.

So I think voting for baseball players is much easier.  The game is easier to normalize, careers are longer, there are lots more careers, and I cannot imagine a friendship ending over whether Rickey Henderson deserved 100% of the HOF votes.  But I&#039;ve seen friendships end in political discussions about two of our most recent presidents, and given time I suspect that I may see the same happen with Obama.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My degree is in American history.  My five presidential HOF votes were the top five vote getters last I looked.  Depending on ones perspective on what is most important in a president, I can see why any of the top five might get edged out by a few others.  We not only have a lot fewer presidents than we do baseball players, but they generally have shorter careers.  And how do we normalize presidential stats between guys before we went coast to coast and after, or guys who were &#8220;lucky&#8221; enough to be perceived as a strong wartime president and those guys who either were elected in time of peace or were adroit enough diplomats to avoid war?  What about a guy like Quincy Adams, who may have been the greatest Secretary of State we ever had?  Does writing the Monroe doctrine earn him points as president?  But even though I voted for (say) Lincoln and Washington, I can see how some folks with strong opinions might not vote for Washington (kept slaves, really was a better general than president) or Lincoln (couldn&#8217;t reach a diplomatic solution to avoid the Civil War).  Even though he was a crook, Nixon started the EPA, (eventually) got us out of Vietnam, normalized relations with China and the USSR, pushed the nuclear clock backwards, and yet some of my friends cite him as being the worst ever for Watergate and for some of what he had Kissinger and the U.S. Military do in southeast Asia.</p>
<p>So I think voting for baseball players is much easier.  The game is easier to normalize, careers are longer, there are lots more careers, and I cannot imagine a friendship ending over whether Rickey Henderson deserved 100% of the HOF votes.  But I&#8217;ve seen friendships end in political discussions about two of our most recent presidents, and given time I suspect that I may see the same happen with Obama.</p>
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		<title>By: Richard Aronson</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-49165</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard Aronson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Jan 2009 22:51:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-49165</guid>
		<description>You want to hate truck commercials?  The ones that drive me crazy are Howie Long&#039;s for (IIRC) Ford.  He talks about other trucks having features like a step as if the step is a bad thing.  Well, the Howie Longs of the world can always choose not to use that step if it&#039;s there, but for a lot of folks that step is the difference between being able to effectively use the full bed of the pickup and not.  I&#039;d be reasonably persuaded by some of those commercials that talk about things like HP and MPG, but that one idiotic commercial ruins that entire truck line for me.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You want to hate truck commercials?  The ones that drive me crazy are Howie Long&#8217;s for (IIRC) Ford.  He talks about other trucks having features like a step as if the step is a bad thing.  Well, the Howie Longs of the world can always choose not to use that step if it&#8217;s there, but for a lot of folks that step is the difference between being able to effectively use the full bed of the pickup and not.  I&#8217;d be reasonably persuaded by some of those commercials that talk about things like HP and MPG, but that one idiotic commercial ruins that entire truck line for me.</p>
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		<title>By: Richard Aronson</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-49164</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard Aronson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Jan 2009 22:48:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-49164</guid>
		<description>Almost two thirds of Blyleven&#039;s career innings pitcher were in a league with the designated hitter.  The DH has been shown to increase league average ERAs by 1/2 to 1 run per game.  Almost everybody listed by Joe with better ERA numbers than Blyleven spent a big chunk of time not facing the DH, either because they were in the NL or because they predated the DH.  If you normalized his wins, losses, and no decisions by league ERA, I bet Blyleven gains on almost all the other pitchers listed (the big obvious exception being Clemens), and he&#039;s already beating some of the HOFers at the bottom of the list.  In other words, Blyleven&#039;s victories had an ERA of 2.26 better than his league average, his losses 1.41 worse, or whatever the numbers actually are.  I apologize for not doing the work myself but I don&#039;t know how to get that much granularity for my (unpaid) level of statistics access other than by charting out each of Blyleven&#039;s starts, and that would take me some time.  But my close approximation is that by ERA for league average, Blyleven passes half a dozen HOF guys when you normalize for league.

What that *really* shows to me is that recent HOF voters have been heavily favoring pitchers who played the majority of the their time in the NL.  I&#039;m sorry, but facing a pitcher is a lot easier than facing a DH.  Again, we have BBWAA not doing adequate homework on league and park effects (such as Larry Walker&#039;s MVP) to the detriment of pitchers who pitched in the worst possible environments: teams that were in small AL cities who aggregated under a .500 record aside from their starts.  Blyleven gets the triple crown of ignorance.

Finally (on baseball awards) claiming there is no east coast bias is just hogwash.  In 1985, for an egregious example, Don Mattingly won the MVP with an OPS of .938, beating out George Brett (on a World Series winner) with an OPS of 1.021.  Brett also won a gold glove at a more important defensive position and had an OPS+ *SIXTY* points better than the next best hitter on his team.  Heck, the Royals won the series that year with only three hitters with an OPS+ of 98 or better, and the other two were under 120.  The Yankees had *SEVEN* players with an OPS+ above 100 that season and Mattingly didn&#039;t even lead his own team, being one point behind Rickey&#039;s batting (and 78 stolen bases behind Rickey).  So in raw offense Brett was by far the best, in context Brett was by far the best hitter on his team as well as the league, Brett was intentionally walked *EIGHTEEN* times more than was Mattingly that year (31 to 13), but Mattingly got MVP.  No media bias my donkey&#039;s bottom!  In 1985 Brett clearly had one of the best seasons ever by a third baseman.  Mattingly didn&#039;t clearly have one of the best seasons ever by a Yankee first baseman (Gehrig alone had 13 better seasons by OPS+), let alone league wide.  But Mattingly got the MVP, and still gets HOF votes because east coast bias gave him an MVP he didn&#039;t deserve which in turn makes him look like a better HOF candidate than he really is.

&lt;i&gt;Jim Rice, supposedly the most feared hitter in the league, was intentionally walked 5 times in 1985.  His season high in intentional walks was 10.  George Brett was intentionally walked more in a season than Rice&#039;s season high ten times.  Brett had more intentional walks than Rice (6 to 5) even in Rice&#039;s MVP season of 1978, when Rice played in 163 games (including a playoff) and Brett only played in 128.  How does Rice get labeled the most feared hitter in the American League if there is no east coast media bias?&lt;/i&gt;

Just because some team/award combinations for some cities *don&#039;t* show apparent bias (such as numbers of Cy Young Awards) doesn&#039;t mean there is no bias.  If the New York teams deserved two CYAs but won four, that&#039;s still media bias.  Like I wrote before, Carlton won a CYA with an ERA+ of 119; Blyleven had a *ton* of better seasons without even getting a CYA vote, let alone an award.  Carlton&#039;s in the HOF; Blyleven isn&#039;t.  Carlton played in the NL, Blyleven mostly against the DH.  Carlton plays in a big east coast city; Blyleven played in the boonies.  No east coast media bias my donkey&#039;s donkey.

If there is one thing the internet has done for baseball, it has made it impossible for the small market super star to stay hidden.  Even the least conscientious voter would have to list the great player on a small city team on his MVP or CYA ballot, or he&#039;d look stupid.  So I think awards are becoming less inaccurate.  But HOF voting still comes from awards earned back in the days when small market teams were shunned.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Almost two thirds of Blyleven&#8217;s career innings pitcher were in a league with the designated hitter.  The DH has been shown to increase league average ERAs by 1/2 to 1 run per game.  Almost everybody listed by Joe with better ERA numbers than Blyleven spent a big chunk of time not facing the DH, either because they were in the NL or because they predated the DH.  If you normalized his wins, losses, and no decisions by league ERA, I bet Blyleven gains on almost all the other pitchers listed (the big obvious exception being Clemens), and he&#8217;s already beating some of the HOFers at the bottom of the list.  In other words, Blyleven&#8217;s victories had an ERA of 2.26 better than his league average, his losses 1.41 worse, or whatever the numbers actually are.  I apologize for not doing the work myself but I don&#8217;t know how to get that much granularity for my (unpaid) level of statistics access other than by charting out each of Blyleven&#8217;s starts, and that would take me some time.  But my close approximation is that by ERA for league average, Blyleven passes half a dozen HOF guys when you normalize for league.</p>
<p>What that *really* shows to me is that recent HOF voters have been heavily favoring pitchers who played the majority of the their time in the NL.  I&#8217;m sorry, but facing a pitcher is a lot easier than facing a DH.  Again, we have BBWAA not doing adequate homework on league and park effects (such as Larry Walker&#8217;s MVP) to the detriment of pitchers who pitched in the worst possible environments: teams that were in small AL cities who aggregated under a .500 record aside from their starts.  Blyleven gets the triple crown of ignorance.</p>
<p>Finally (on baseball awards) claiming there is no east coast bias is just hogwash.  In 1985, for an egregious example, Don Mattingly won the MVP with an OPS of .938, beating out George Brett (on a World Series winner) with an OPS of 1.021.  Brett also won a gold glove at a more important defensive position and had an OPS+ *SIXTY* points better than the next best hitter on his team.  Heck, the Royals won the series that year with only three hitters with an OPS+ of 98 or better, and the other two were under 120.  The Yankees had *SEVEN* players with an OPS+ above 100 that season and Mattingly didn&#8217;t even lead his own team, being one point behind Rickey&#8217;s batting (and 78 stolen bases behind Rickey).  So in raw offense Brett was by far the best, in context Brett was by far the best hitter on his team as well as the league, Brett was intentionally walked *EIGHTEEN* times more than was Mattingly that year (31 to 13), but Mattingly got MVP.  No media bias my donkey&#8217;s bottom!  In 1985 Brett clearly had one of the best seasons ever by a third baseman.  Mattingly didn&#8217;t clearly have one of the best seasons ever by a Yankee first baseman (Gehrig alone had 13 better seasons by OPS+), let alone league wide.  But Mattingly got the MVP, and still gets HOF votes because east coast bias gave him an MVP he didn&#8217;t deserve which in turn makes him look like a better HOF candidate than he really is.</p>
<p><i>Jim Rice, supposedly the most feared hitter in the league, was intentionally walked 5 times in 1985.  His season high in intentional walks was 10.  George Brett was intentionally walked more in a season than Rice&#8217;s season high ten times.  Brett had more intentional walks than Rice (6 to 5) even in Rice&#8217;s MVP season of 1978, when Rice played in 163 games (including a playoff) and Brett only played in 128.  How does Rice get labeled the most feared hitter in the American League if there is no east coast media bias?</i></p>
<p>Just because some team/award combinations for some cities *don&#8217;t* show apparent bias (such as numbers of Cy Young Awards) doesn&#8217;t mean there is no bias.  If the New York teams deserved two CYAs but won four, that&#8217;s still media bias.  Like I wrote before, Carlton won a CYA with an ERA+ of 119; Blyleven had a *ton* of better seasons without even getting a CYA vote, let alone an award.  Carlton&#8217;s in the HOF; Blyleven isn&#8217;t.  Carlton played in the NL, Blyleven mostly against the DH.  Carlton plays in a big east coast city; Blyleven played in the boonies.  No east coast media bias my donkey&#8217;s donkey.</p>
<p>If there is one thing the internet has done for baseball, it has made it impossible for the small market super star to stay hidden.  Even the least conscientious voter would have to list the great player on a small city team on his MVP or CYA ballot, or he&#8217;d look stupid.  So I think awards are becoming less inaccurate.  But HOF voting still comes from awards earned back in the days when small market teams were shunned.</p>
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		<title>By: Scott Lange</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-48859</link>
		<dc:creator>Scott Lange</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Jan 2009 17:54:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-48859</guid>
		<description>&lt;I&gt;LBJ deserves a nomination â€¦for the opposite list.&lt;/I&gt;

Perhaps so- he was responsible for worsening the Vietnam War, a major demerit.  He also created large new social spending programs, which of course have both benefits and drawbacks.  However, he was also responsible for ending the Jim Crow laws that defined the South just forty years ago.  Without the Civil Rights Act of 1964, we would not be a country capable of electing a black president today.  For that alone, I think he deserves a nomination.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>LBJ deserves a nomination â€¦for the opposite list.</i></p>
<p>Perhaps so- he was responsible for worsening the Vietnam War, a major demerit.  He also created large new social spending programs, which of course have both benefits and drawbacks.  However, he was also responsible for ending the Jim Crow laws that defined the South just forty years ago.  Without the Civil Rights Act of 1964, we would not be a country capable of electing a black president today.  For that alone, I think he deserves a nomination.</p>
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		<title>By: TRad</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-48848</link>
		<dc:creator>TRad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Jan 2009 14:17:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-48848</guid>
		<description>Brian

you&#039;re a communist. Your opinions don&#039;t matter at all.

See? Ad personam is easy. And worthless. If you disagree with what Lowry wrote - attack the arguments, not the person. Elementary, dear Watson.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brian</p>
<p>you&#8217;re a communist. Your opinions don&#8217;t matter at all.</p>
<p>See? Ad personam is easy. And worthless. If you disagree with what Lowry wrote &#8211; attack the arguments, not the person. Elementary, dear Watson.</p>
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		<title>By: jimp</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-48842</link>
		<dc:creator>jimp</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Jan 2009 12:04:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-48842</guid>
		<description>You have a chance with Farnsworth, it is an odd numbered year.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You have a chance with Farnsworth, it is an odd numbered year.</p>
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		<title>By: ttbaby</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-48839</link>
		<dc:creator>ttbaby</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Jan 2009 10:29:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-48839</guid>
		<description>1 write-in for Millard Filmore!! The Pete Rose of Presidents!!!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1 write-in for Millard Filmore!! The Pete Rose of Presidents!!!</p>
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		<title>By: I. M. Multitudes</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-48831</link>
		<dc:creator>I. M. Multitudes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Jan 2009 05:40:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-48831</guid>
		<description>Regarding Note 1 -- on annoying ads.

To coin a term:  Adverse-tising:  Advertising so annoying that it makes you less likely to buy a product than never having seen the advertising at all.  

Attention all Madmen:  Insipid tunes, bad acting, manipulative statistics, intrusiveness, stupid writing, crashes to my browser from your pop-up window â€” just remember, Iâ€™m taking notes.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Regarding Note 1 &#8212; on annoying ads.</p>
<p>To coin a term:  Adverse-tising:  Advertising so annoying that it makes you less likely to buy a product than never having seen the advertising at all.  </p>
<p>Attention all Madmen:  Insipid tunes, bad acting, manipulative statistics, intrusiveness, stupid writing, crashes to my browser from your pop-up window â€” just remember, Iâ€™m taking notes.</p>
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		<title>By: Brian</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-48818</link>
		<dc:creator>Brian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Jan 2009 01:49:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-48818</guid>
		<description>I&#039;ll go after the guy when what he says is nonsense.  Sue me.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ll go after the guy when what he says is nonsense.  Sue me.</p>
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		<title>By: TRad</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-48809</link>
		<dc:creator>TRad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Jan 2009 23:37:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01/15/going-dark/#comment-48809</guid>
		<description>Ad personam? Phooey.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ad personam? Phooey.</p>
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