Willie, Bloomquist and the Dunn
Posted: January 11th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball | 102 Comments »
I think it’s probably fair to say that Adam Dunn, for all his obvious talents, can be a remarkably frustrating player to watch. He is a dreadful left fielder, a designated hitter in outfielder’s clothes. He’s slow*. He strikes out a ton. He hits .225 with runners in scoring position for his career (and over his career he has never hit better than .248 in those situations). He walks (797 times) about as often as he gets a hit (955 hits) — those walks might be good for value but that doesn’t make them fun to watch. There is a sense around the game that he does not especially like playing baseball; and nobody who has watched him play with any regularity would argue that he demonstrates Willie Mays’ joy.
*Though it should be noted that he’s not a bad baserunner … according to the Bill James baserunner analysis he’s actually a very GOOD base runner. He’s brutal going first to third, as you might expect, but he tends to score from second on singles and from first on doubles, he doesn’t run into many stupid outs, he doesn’t get caught stealing, and he doesn’t ground into many double plays (though in his case that probably has little to do with his running and a lot to do with his fly ball tendencies and his many, many strikeouts).
At the same time, I think it’s probably also fair to say that Willie Bloomquist, for all his obvious shortcomings, can be a fun player to watch, if you are a certain kind of baseball fan. He plays all the positions — he has at least 10 games at every position but pitcher and catcher — and he seems to play them all credibly. He can run (he has stolen 71 bases in 87 attempts), and he hustles, and he has that underdog thing going for him. He has only six career homers, but, hey, one was a grand slam. No one who has ever watched Willie Bloomquist play would doubt that the guy loves ball.
Yes, in my mind, Adam Dunn and Willie Bloomquist are almost perfect opposites. And while they are not anything close to equal baseball players, I would also say that you would not want to build a whole team of Bloomquists or Dunns*.
*According to the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis — one of my favorite toys — a whole team of 2008 Adam Dunns would average 6.67 runs per game — so that’s 1,080 runs per season.
A whole team of 2008 Willie Bloomquists, meanwhile, would average 4.177 runs per game — 677 runs per season. So using the Musinator, Dunn is 400 or so runs better offensively than Bloomquist. That sounds about right to me. Of course, it’s downright frightening to imagine how two Adam Dunns would turn the double play.
By the way, this Lineup Analysis is sort of a fun way to compare players. Take the great NL MVP race of 2008.
According to the Musinator:
– A team of 2008 Albert Pujols would score 1,488 runs for a season.
– A team of 2008 Ryan Howards would score 977 runs for a season.
So, by this way of thinking, Pujols is 500-plus runs better. And he’s a much better defensive player, and a much better base runner, and … I’m really not sure why this was ever really an argument.
It’s also a fun way to look at the Hall of Fame Ballot. Here, using the players career numbers, is what a complete team made up of each player would score for a season:
Mark McGwire: 1,199 runs per season.
Rickey Henderson: 953 runs per season.
Jim Rice: 948 runs per season.
Tim Raines: 918 runs per season.
Don Mattingly: 916 runs per season.
Dale Murphy: 880 runs per season.
Dave Parker: 864 runs per season.
Andre Dawson: 837 runs per season.
Alan Trammell: 812 runs per season.
Of course, that’s just offense, and it doesn’t take into account much base running, the home park or anything else. A defensive spread with McGwire or Rice is positively frightening, and I’m not sure how a lefty-throwing Rickey plays shortstop or catches. I would say that eight Trammells would have the best defensive team, though it’s worth remembering that Murphy began his career as a catcher.
I find all this to be a little bit more than an interesting side note — I think that, in many ways, Dunn and Bloomquist represent opposing philosophies about baseball.
I think the Adam Dunn philosophy is built around what you can see, what is measurable, what is cold and hard and real. With Dunn, you get a titanic power hitter who plays every day, hits long home runs (exactly 40 ever year — no more, no less), walks a lot, strikes out every three or four at bats, plays zero positions, doesn’t have much speed and doesn’t do those little things that show off his great love of the game. The Dunn Way is the Michael Corleone Way, strictly business.
The Willie Bloomquist philosophy, meanwhile, is built around passion, what is intangible, this sense that if you can get a bunch of guys who KNOW HOW to play the game, who LOVE the game, who HAVE BASEBALLS BEATING IN THEIR CHESTS, then you can do wonderful things (even if the players can’t hit worth a damn). With Bloomquist you have an astonishingly weak hitter who plays occasionally, cracked ONE EXTRA BASE HIT last year*, doesn’t get on base, plays seven defensive positions, can really run and gets his uniform so dirty that, according to his jarringly lengthy Wikipedia entry, he has over the years been called (mostly in jest/derision) Wee Willie, Ballgame, The Ignitor, Effin, WFB, The Spork, Princess Willie, Willie Boom-Boom and, by Angels announcer Rex Hudler, The Mighty Bloomquist.
*Fewest extra base hits in a season (30 or more total hits)
1. Willie Bloomquist, 2008, 1 XBH, 46 hits
2. Glenn Beckert, 1974, 1 XBH, 44 hits
3. Bill Killefer, 1921, 1 XBH, 43 hits
4. Eddie Miller, 1979, 1 XBH, 35 hits
Luis Gomez, 1974, 1 XBH, 35 hits
And my point is that I believe every baseball fan, at his/her core, leans Dunn or Bloomquist.* People who believe that on-base percentage and slugging are the most significant things, that defense and speed are overrated, that what matters is what you do and not how you look doing it lean heavily Dunn. The New York Yankees have leaned heavily Dunn: Get on base, slug the ball, don’t worry too much about catching it. And so on.
*This goes along with my theory that every single person, at his/her core, leans offense or defense in football. I lean offense. I used to play almost daily games of Stratomatic Football with my buddy Chardon Jimmy, and it quickly became clear that he thinks defense first. He would pick his teams based on defense, based on what kind of pass rush he could muster, based on how well his team stopped the run, based on what kind of cover guys he had in the secondary, based on the speed of his linebackers. And I thought offense, I would pick my teams based on the abilities of the quarterback, the overall strength of the offensive line, the speed of receivers, the durability and general talents of the running back.
It occurred to me after a while that this wasn’t just the way we saw football in a game, it is how we WATCHED football. We would be watching the same game, and he would talk about how the defensive end was getting held, and I would talk about how the quarterback missed an open receiver on the left side. And then it occurred to me that it wasn’t just how we watched football, it was what we BELIEVED about football, and maybe what believed a bit about life too. Stratomatic is life, you know.
At the same time, there are plenty of people in the game and in the stands who believe that you win by doing the little things, by playing defense and running out ground balls and playing the game with passion every day. They lean heavily Bloomquist. The Minnesota Twins, for instance, lean Bloomquist.. The Twins run and catch the ball and they have not worried too much about power or on-base percentage. This, no doubt, frustrates the heck out of a lot of Dunn-leaning Twins fans.
It’s an irritating feeling when you lean heavily one way and have a team that leans heavily the other way. But I think the more irritating feeling is when you do not know which way your team leans. And that, finally, leads us to the Kansas City Royals, recent purchasers of Willie Bloomquist himself. The Royals under Dayton Moore have TALKED about leaning Dunn. That is, Dayton has made statements that would lead you to believe he cares a whole lot about on-base percentage and power numbers.
That’s what he says. But everything he DOES leads you to believe he leans very, very Bloomquist. Here are Dayton’s big-money signings and trades the last couple of years:
1. Jose Guillen ($12 million per): .323 on-base percentage.
2. Mike Jacobs ($3 million or so): .318 on-base percentage.
3. Coco Crisp ($5.75 million or so): .331 on-base percentage.
4. Willie Bloomquist ($1.55 million plus incentives): .324 on-base percentage.
5. Miguel Olivo ($2.7 million): .275 on-base percentage.
That’s actually quite remarkable. Look at that list again. You have five pickups totaling about $25 million per year — and you have to suspect that all five will be in next year’s lineup quite regularly. And not one guy — not ONE GUY — has even a league average on-base percentage for his career. Look at that list again. That’s the core of the Kansas City lineup — the leadoff hitter, the four-five hitters, the eight-nine hitters probably. And that’s a combined .314 on-base percentage.
So why did Dayton sign these guys?
1. Jose Guillen: Because he was the best right-handed “power†bat available, and he’s “a real competitor.â€*
*And, oh, it can make you cry real tears to realize that while the Royals gave Guillen three years and $36 million, the Tampa Bay Rays just got Pat Burrell for two years at $16 million. I realize that the economy has changed, and the Rays are a significantly more appealing club to play for at the moment, and Burrell is possibly an even worse outfielder than Guillen, though that’s a race nobody wants to call. Still …
Jose Guillen career: .273/.323/.446, 100 OPS+
Pat Burrell career: .257/.367/.485, 119 OPS+
Jose Guillen 2008: .264/.300/.446 with 23 homers, 97 RBIs, 66 runs, 23 walks, 96 OPS+.
Pat Burrell 2008: .250/.367/.507 with 33 homers, 86 RBIs, 74 runs, 102 walks, 125 OPS+.
Cry real tears.
2. Mike Jacobs: Because he’s got power, and “his work ethic is off the charts.â€
3. Coco Crisp: Because he’s an excellent defensive center fielder, has speed and could blossom playing every day. Plus, he has “been a part of championship teams.â€
4. Willie Bloomquist: Because he’s got some speed, he’s versatile and “He’s an on base guy(??), a speed-type player and a hustler.â€
5. Miguel Olivo: Because he’s got a little pop in his bat and he can throw out baserunners.
The Royals believe in the Bloomquist Way.
And look, I am not saying that these moves will not work. They could work, I guess. There are many ways to win baseball games. Guillen could have one more good season left in him. Jacbos could pop 30 homers. Crisp could revert back to his Cleveland days and could win a Gold Glove in Kansas City’s big center field. Bloomquist could, um, … well, he could be used as a super utility player. Olivo could … well, anyway.
The Royals also spent $4.25 million per year on Kyle Farnsworth and $1.9 million on Horacio Ramirez. Man, the Royals threw around a lot of money to a lot of players who did not have good years in 2008. Maybe it will work. They do have a lot of guys in the clubhouse who love the game. I personally would have taken that money and signed Adam Dunn and a couple of other guys who may not like baseball a whole lot but at least get on base and get batters out. It’s a different philosophy.
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FIRST
I don’t think dunn is champing at the bit to pull on a Royals uniform.
The Royals are a better team for signing Willie Bloomquist, while the M’s become even less watchable. For Seattle, it’s tough to think that the battle cry for 2009 is, ‘Wait Until Next Year.’
To have a good baseball team, you need to have a mixture of Dunns and Bloomquists…and none of them should feature too prominently in the mix. For instance, Willie is your utility man. The 25th man, who gets his 3 AB/week on a Sunday.
Dunn is your DH, if you’re lucky enough to not have to use him in the field.
Fill in the rest of the roster with guys who can actually field and get on base, and some guys who can post decent OPS, and then get yourself about two or three solid starters and some good bullpen arms, and you might be in the running for a wild card. Doesn’t look like the Royals are headed there any time soon.
BTW, how sad is it for Dan Plesac that he’s the only guy on the poll with 0% of the vote? Yet, 14 people still voted for him. And Greg Vaughn? Ron Gant? Jay Bell? They get votes? Really?
[...] Willie, Bloomquist and the Dunn » Joe Posnanski [...]
“Stratomatic is life, you know.”
True dat.
Seattle will win more games than KC in 2009, and it won’t be close.
The M’s do not have great OBP guys, and they are cognizant of defense, so it’s not a Dunn v. Bloomquist comparison, to be sure.
It is completely perplexing that Ron Gant gets even a single vote for the HOF from your readers. His lone accomplishment in the bigs was that no one …..not ever …..swung harder on every swing than he did.
Do the small market Royals and Twins go the Bloomquist route because the Willie Bloomquist way is cheaper (not the player, necessarily, but the skills)? OBP costs big dollars, so do HR. But grit, speed, and love don’t fit into the run generating equations that well.
Dayton Moore really irks me and you’ve nailed it on the head as to why. He’s a liar. I feel like I can’t trust him with “my” ballclub anymore. I like a GM that does something in the vicinity of what he’s trying to say. I don’t like politician GM’s. It would be great if he said they got these players for reasons that actually fit the crime. I could live with that.
He acts like he doesn’t know how to type in http://baseball-reference.com or http://baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/DayByDayDatabase.py. With just those two tools, I think most casual baseball fans with a decent business sense, could build a better bisquit in Kansas City. And that, makes me feel disrespected as a fan that he can’t simply do what I can do at home for nothing.
If the Royals asked me, I’d give them a list of inexpensive players from AAA teams & major league teams, that would easily make 81 wins in a season in either ‘09 or ‘10. I know that’s a big claim, but I think I know how to do it …at least better than Dayton Moore, especially if I could afford to spend 24/7 on the job. Maybe I should call them.
Dunn gives away a bunch of runs when he’s in the outfield, he isn’t getting slimmer, and he has not improved in any way since he came to the big leagues. He would be great as the Royals DH, though.
Anybody else run the numbers for a team of Mo Vaughns?
Dunn? Bloomquist?
I lean Sizemore.
I think Joe nailed it as well. I’m not from Kansas City, and my only knowledge of the town is from the internet and a friend I have who went to K-State, but given the writers/researchers who come from there/are Royals fans (Joe, Bill James, Neyer, Rany) I imagine there’s 1. A greater level of understanding of statistical analysis in the fanbase and 2. Some level of pressure to keep those writers writing good things. Moore seems to understand this, and panders to that base in his quotes (”He’s an on-base guy, etc.”) The problem is, he clearly doesn’t believe it at all – he comes from Atlanta, a scouting powerhouse, and he signs well, just absolutely terrible players for his market.
I don’t know that the Royals couldn’t compete with a “grit” team, and hey, Allard Baird was a stats-guy supposedly and he did a lousy job, but I do know if I were a Royals fan, I’d be pretty ticked about the double-talk coming from the front office. Just tell me what you really intend to do, and the results will judge you. I doubt the Royals could really sign the likes of Burrell or Dunn (one went to a winner, the other has a fairly strong NL preference, supposedly) but I can’t imagine there aren’t better uses for the teams money than the likes of Mike Jacobs, Jose Guillen or Willie Bloomquist.
Also, if Willie is such a winner, why has Seattle stunk the whole time he’s been there, and why did he take the Royals money?
[...] This time around, he’s talking about the difference between Adam Dunn and Willie Bloomquist. [...]
If Willie Ballgame is our utility man I can live with that. As it means that TONY PENA JR is likely off this roster, and perfecting his changeup in AAA. While we’re at it, can we drop Gload, or is he going to start at 1B again this year? I wish I was joking about that question. I completely lost faith in GMDM and Trey Hillman sometime in mid-August.
Joe,
Thanks for the link and the kind words.
“I lean Sizemore.”
Grady or Ted?
How can anyone say Willie Bloomquist makes the Royals better and the Mariners less fun to watch? Unreal. Please stop watching sports because you are an idiot. And he’s not comparing the players, Dunn and Willie, he’s comparing their ideals, the way they play. Most of you missed the point of the article. The team has 2 “OBP”guys in Callaspo and Esteban German that can play all over the place. Who cares if they don’t play in the OF? You have bigger problems to worry about if someone of Willie Bloomquist is starting games in left or DH or at 1st. Dayton Moore is a crook. He is infactuated with old Braves. He’s acting like a head coach in the NFL that brings special teams and bit players with him to new teams. Brayan Pena is a capable back up, as is John Buck, now one of them will probably end up jobless once camp breaks. This is a very frustrating team to keep track of.
Ah, WFB — something about the way he plays (running out ground balls, filling in at every IF/OF position) makes people lapse into the worst cliches, like “he’s a good ballplayer.” As if this were Little League. It’s a strong argument for “don’t believe your eyes.” Reminds me of a great Larry Stone (Seattle Times) line last season: In a pregame note about a game featuring Bloomquist and David Eckstein as the starting shortstops, Stone wrote that it set an all-time single-game record for combined grit in the SS position.
Well, this seems like the perfect case for a good old reductio ad absurdum. Let us imagine this team of Adam Dunns. Dunn, in left field in 2007, had a Dewan’s +/- fielding score of -29. Left field has a base rating, according to Tom Tango’s research, of -7.5 runs, so that makes Dunn a -36.5 fielder overall. Multiply that by 8, and a team of Dunns is 292 runs below average. Given that the average team scored 753 runs last year, let’s say a team of Dunns would score 1080 runs and allow 1045, leading to an expected record of 83.4 wins. I can’t find the Dewan +/- for Wee Willie Bloomquist, so let’s assume for a moment that he is exactly average. With 677 RS and 753 RA, his expected wins is 73. Obviously, if Willie is an average fielder, he is far inferior to Dunn. The crossover point for someone who hits like Willie comes at about a +12 on the scale (unadjusted for position – it’d be about a +10 at 2B, a +5 at SS). Of course, we’re still not considering baserunning at all.
So let’s go a step further and take even more of an all field, no-hit player – Adam Everett; we’ll have to use his fielding numbers from 2003 to 2006, when he was a regular; over that period, he was +119 at SS – for a single year figure, we’ll be conservative and say he’s a +25 now, before adding the +7.5 bonus for playing SS. At 8 positions, that means he saves 260 runs a year, for a team total of 490. Meanwhile, a team of Adam Everetts (career stats, this time, since I’m lazy) would score 569 runs a year based on his .298/.323 career OBP/SLG line. Expected wins – 91.9. 2009 salary – $1 million, plus incentives. I leave you to draw your own conclusions (although the difficulty I had finding these numbers online really makes me want to buy The Fielding Bible).
By the way, this is the first time I’ve really played around with these numbers, so it’s quite possible I’ve screwed it up – would be happy to be educated on the matter if so.
While not being as vitriolic as Andrew I, I have to say that the statement that “Willie Ballgame leaving the M’s making them less fun to watch” verges on the ridiculous. Your no-hit, ok field ‘hustle’ guy can be celebrated as the 25th man on a championship team, where he helps them win a tight game or two. When the team has no direction and becomes the 1st team to lose 100 games while spending $100 million, watching Willie Ballgame play out the string is the opposite of entertaining. Unfortunately, this is the tack the M’s ownership has taken the last few years. Keep the aging stars because they’re ‘our guys’ and ‘popular’, and ignore the rot setting in. Thank goodness for Jack Z and a new direction. Winning and a coherent team philosophy are more entertaining than a team of scrappy, limited ballplayers.
As Joe noted, I think the most interesting thing about the Royals offseason is their dogged pursuit of the exact opposite type of player they claimed they were pursuing.
I’d love to see this type of thing in other sports, too. Like claiming you need a dominant post presence and then trading for and drafting European shooting guards. Or announcing you needed to improve your linebacking corps and then drafting a wide receiver in the first 2 rounds.
This is a solid observation — most Twins fans who blog tend to be Dunn types (there’s at least two long posts/threads each season in the Twins blogosphere about Adam Dunn specifically, and many more about players like him), while the Twins as an organization do seem to lean more toward the Bloomquist end of the scale. Of course, the Twins have been pretty successful the past few years while the Royals in the same division have not, so there may be a distinction to make between Bloomquist guys who can actually help you and Bloomquist guys who can’t. What the distinction is, I can’t tell off the top of my head.
There is, however, a related but different division in Twins fandom/organizational thinking; I’ll call it Punto/Kubel.
Though many Twins bloggers still have a fairly rosy view of Kubel based on his one-time status as one of the top Twins hitting prospects, now that he’s been in the league awhile he’s establishing himself as a pretty consistent performer: he hit .273 with an OBP of .335 in 2007, he hit .272 with an OBP of .335 in 2008. Though he hit for a bit more power in 2008, he also batted more, which evens out his Runs Created per Game over those two seasons: 5.4 in 2007, 5.4 in 2008. He’s about to turn 27. so there’s still a chance he might blossom into the 30+ HR hitter many Twins bloggers think he can become, but his time is running out, and if he puts up another .27x/79x (BA/OPS) type season in 2009, it would seem as though that’s the level of player he is and will probably always be.
Nick Punto, on the other hand, is one of the most wildly inconsistent players I’ve ever seen. Punto’s career numbers don’t look horrible for a light-hitting defensive specialist/super-utility guy: he’s a career .252/651 hitter with an OPS+ of 74. Ron Washington, another utility guy whom older Twins fans have fond memories of (and who was, at last check, still the Rangers manager) hit .261/660 with an OPS+ of 79 for his career while Al Newman, a beloved super-utility guy from the Twins World Series era hit just .226/560 with an OPS+ of 58 for his career. The difference is, in an eight year career, half of which has been spent as a half-time or more frequent player for the Twins, Punto has had just one season where he’s hit with 10 points of his career batting average, and just two where he’s hit within 30 points of that average. He’s had just two seasons within 15 points of his career OPS+. Think about that last for a moment: in six of Nick Punto’s eight seasons in the major leagues, he’s hit for an OPS+ of 90 or higher, or an OPS+ of 52 or lower. Punto is 30, but because he’s never shown a marked tendency to hit close to his career averages, it’s still all but impossible to know exactly what you’re going to get out of him offensively.
Running Punto and Kubel through the lineup analysis tool Joe notes helps explain this disparity between the two players:
Punto:
2008 – 4.552 r/g (737 runs)
2007 – 2.542 r/g (412 runs)
career – 3.626 r/g (587 runs)
Kubel:
2008 – 5.239 r/g (849 runs)
2007 – 5.039 r/g (816 runs)
career – 4.830 r/g (782 runs)
Kubel may be performing below expectations, but at least he’s following a traditional career development path, so Twins bloggers are still happily giving him the benefit of the doubt on when he’ll bloom. Punto, on the other hand, could be a solid contributor or could be a boat-anchor around the neck of your club’s offense, and there’s no real way of telling which one you’ll end up with before June.
If you’re into virtual people-watching, it’s a fascinating thing to watch Twins bloggers contort themselves into pretzels wondering about Punto while still holding out arguably vain hope after vain hope regarding Kubel.
This is not an either or proposition, IMO. I’m not an Adam Dunn guy. Neither am I a Willie Bloomquist guy (although I was a WFB type as a catcher 15 years ago). I’m a Kevin Youkilis guy. I’ll take the Dunn/Bloomquist synthesis.
On second thought, I think the above statement is evidence that I lean slightly towards Dunn. And that was precisely Joe’s point.
Hi Everybody! I wanted to let you all know that there has been created a special Facebook Group for all of you degenerates who, like me, can’t stop commenting on Joe’s Blog. It’s called the “Joe Posnanski Blog Commenter’s Group of Blog Commenters.” Here’s a link:
http://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/group.php?gid=43651608539&ref=mf
If it doesn’t work, just do a search for groups uner Joe’s name…you’ll find it. It has words, a snazzy picture of Joe, and a message board on which we can make comments about how much we love commenting on things!!
It’s a labor of love…or just something that I did in order to avoid having to watch Florida and Oklahoma’s martching bands…and 15 the pickup truck commercials in-betweent he two.(Did you know you can keep fishing poles in the Ram Box!?!? No, really!! Hammers and shovels too!!)
Willie Bloomquist sucks!! Holla!!
Please don’t tell me there is still a possibility that Ross Gload will be on KC’s 25 man roster in 2009. Please…please…
I don’t understand the Bloomquist deal because I don’t understand why we only see to keep adding depth to places that have depth.
Is Bloomquist our 5th outfielder?
Is he our 2nd utility player with no real home?
Is he our 10th infielder?
What roles does he serve. As a shortstop, I can see some sense in this, or if he’s the fourth outfielder and Teahen gets to come home to the infield maybe.
It’s really the Jacobs deal that ticks me off. He’s our umpteenth “guy that can hit, but not really play anything but kinda first” guy.
is there a wordpress plugin that disallows the “FIRST” comments?
please install it, joe
Someone needs to develop an online test on this (with correlating players in between Adam and Willie).
Regarding the truck commercial with the Ram box when they talk about keeping fishing pole, etc. in it, I keep expecting them to add at the end, “It’s good for guns and naked ladies.”
I can honestly say that I never heard of Willie Bloomquist until Rob Neyer blogged about this signing on Friday. (Link: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3822446&name=Neyer_Rob)
I came across this line: “He’s an on-base guy, a speed-type player and a hustler,” Royals general manager Dayton Moore said. “He’s a Craig Counsell-type who really plays hard, hustles and knows how to play”
… and my first thought was, “I’ll bet he’s white.”
I’d rather not view things through the prism of race so often, but it’s predictable. When lousy players are given credit for their intangibles (how does one Jeterate the worst players in the league), invariably they seem to be white. I guess Dave Roberts is an exception to this; he’s the first minority player I can think of who would be complimented in these terms, and he’s not all that good, either.
On a less flamable note: I’m always a little confused when lousy players are given credit for playing multiple positions. Correct me if I’m wrong, but (a) in the AL, you don’t need that kind of flexibility because pinch hitting doesn’t happen often, (b) in baseball, even Kevin Youkilis can only play one position at a time. I like those guy who can play catcher on an emergency basis, and I have a real soft spot for position players who can toss the bottom of the 8th inning in a blowout (I have a hunch that teams ought to do this more often). But I think most any shortstop could play outfield, as could many second basemen. And left field isn’t as hard as the corner positions. Whatever. It’s lost on me.
“…and the 15 pickup truck commercials in-between the two.”
Dodge Trucks: Helping men compensate for small penises for 50 years.
I lean Pujols. Dunns and Bloomquists can both stick it. I want guys that love to play the game, bust their balls on every play AND are actually good. Mike Sweeney pre-injury would qualify as that sort of guy too.
I have no problem with Willie Bloomquist being signed by the Royals. I DO have a problem with the ammount ($3MM) and the years (2(!)). He should have been both cheaper and a 1 year deal. Theoretically, Bloomquist is an upgrade to the bench because of the versatility he brings, eliminating the need to carry both Tony Pena, Jr and Esteban German. That allows you to carry a Mitch Meier (or whoever), Mark Teahen, and John Buck (with Wee Willie) as your bench. The problem is we all know Hillman (and almost every coach in general) falls in love with these players. Ross Gload. That’s it. That’s all that needs to be said. Taking Callaspo off the field is so detrimental to the overall club that its borders on insane. As stated earlier, there really is only a few OBP capable guys on the team. I’d say Callaspo, German, Teahen, Dejesus and that’s it. Teahen and German both went into a shell last year, and for whatever reason German takes more craps than swings with his stick. Cut him if you aren’t going to utilize him properly… take Callaspo out of the lineup and were seeing a TON of 6-9 pitch innings. I cannot BEGIN to tell how many Royals games I’ve been at to see one of our pitchers laboring through an inning against a team that will MAKE the pitcher throw more than one strike, and our pitcher throws 20+ pitches. Only to have our Boys in Blue come out swinging at 1st pitch fastballs over corners. YES, it’s a strike, but it won’t be the only one you see, unless you swing NOW. It’s frustrating because as fans, I think we’re far enough away to see the whole picture. Yes, I love seeing G.R.I.T. too, when a sucky player makes a great diving catch or rips a double I cheer. He makes me feel better about being normal. I want my team to win however, and to win the team needs proper construction.
I’m willing to give Dayton passes on Farnsworth, Ramirez and Waecter because he’s shown an ability to find those guys to fill out his bullpen nicely. His seemingly non-existing OBP philosophy read SO-O good in the Star. I just can’t bring myself to see it.
Also, to all the people who say “Dunn wouldn’t play in KC” “no big bat will play here” et al., YEAH, I’m sure he’d rather play for the Washington Nationals. Everyone talks about the atrocity he is in LF (and he is) but that doesn’t even matter to us in KC. I’d love to see Adam Dunn stationed at 1B in KC. Now, we didn’t know he was going to get blindsided by the economy and no offers, and we got Jacobs for Nunez. Hindsight is 20/20. If we are spending Glass’ money simply because he says we can now, let’s at least burn some brain cells when doing so.
Sadly, it would’ve been an out-and-out coup to get Dunn in KC with the new stadium construction and Gordon & Butler maybe breaking out, is Aviles for real, etc. There would’ve been a lot to look forward too. As it is, I’ll just get drunk on opening day like the rest of the yuppie fans. After that, I’ll read/watch the highlights…
At least we’re not comparing Reggie Sanders with Angel Berroa. How quickly people seem to forget how appalling this team has been. These are bridge signings while our talent continues to develop in the minors.
One would think a “big-time” reporter like Posnanski would recognize that you don’t take a franchise out of the pits of hell overnight on a shoestring budget. I don’t care whether the Royals are Dunn or Bloomquist. What I do know is they are better than they were three years ago and still moving up.
JB,
simply stating “they are better” doesn’t really help. You have to ask “Why are they better”. It’s in this sense that people get so crazy over players and signings. The Mariners won how many games year before last? 88 or something there-a-bouts right? They played way over their heads and fell to earth, and after everyone knew they would. They were blinded and gave away good prospects, including Adam Jones, to Baltimore for a pitcher that tanked. It’s all how you look at it.
Hmmm. Do you think Dayton Moores might like Juan Pierre at a discount?
I have a feeling that Dayton Moore might like Juan Pierre at full price.
#21
I’m glad you did the research, and I’m willing to entertain the notion that defense gets short shrift. But one thing you’re doing wrong — you’re dragging Dunn’s positional adjustment (-7.5) around the field when you simply multiply him by eight. Likewise, you’re inflating Everett’s by doing the same thing.
Hmm, a team of Home Jim Rices (.374 OBP, .546 SLG) produces 6.654 runs per game, 1078 runs per 162 games.
A team of Road Jim Rices (.330 OBP, .459 SLG) produces 5.035 runs per game, 816 runs per 162 games.
JB — FYI, Joe is not a reporter — and if you read his historical blog entries and columns, you’ll see pretty clearly that he’s been entirely fair in his assessment of the Royals and the front office over the past few years, acknowledging both the good and the questionable.
As far as the Twins go…I don’t understand why the front office hates guys who get on base and hit for power. It makes no sense to me. The major signing of the offseason? Getting Nick Punto back on board for a couple more years. Sweet.
Who knows, maybe they’ll hit .315 with RISP as a team again this year…but I have my doubts. The M&M boys are going to have to triple their output this year for the team to have any chance.
#41
I’m not sure that’s true – the logic is that if Dunn played at SS, for example, he would be 15 runs worse than he actually was (LF=-7.5 and SS=+7.5), so while he was a -29 in left, he’d be a -44 at short. The opposite is true for Everett, who would theoretically be +40 in left or right field. The table of values for each would be: Dunn – C -49, 1B -24, 2B -39, 3B -39, SS -44, LF -29, CF -39, RF -29, Total -292. For Everett – C +20, 1B +45, 2B +30, 3B +30, SS +25, LF +40, CF +30, RF +40, Total +260.
At least that’s how I understand it from Neyer’s Q&A at http://tinyurl.com/8xor7u (not sure if it’s Insider only – if so, apologies).
Regarding Kubel and Punto – While Kubel maybe hasn’t developed into the stud some thought he would, he did have the 4th highest OPS+ on the team last year (and Denard Span’s performance was WAY over what his minor league stats suggest he’s capable of full time) and until (or if) Delmon Young develops Kubel’s really the third best player (or hitter, at least) on the team.
As a Giants fan, I’d take him in a heartbeat.
Well, Mike beat me to the punch with the home/away Jim Rice calculations. Fittingly enough, his was comment #42.
Check out what Barry Bonds circa 2004 would do at each spot.
Sure, the defense would be horrible, but…13.4 runs/game is still 13.4 runs a game. That 2,172 runs a year. He could pitch and that team would still win 100 games.
All I can say is….Holy Crap. I don’t care what anyone says about Barry, I’ve never been excited as a fan like I was whenever Barry stepped to the plate.
For comparisons sake, Babe Ruth in his best year (1920 by OPS+) would score 12.4 runs/game, or 2,008 a year. Though he actually could pitch for his team, which counts for something.
Barry was the greatest offensive force ever to play the game. And I miss him, ‘roids be damned.
I had a good chuckle when I saw Alan Trammell’s placement on the lineup analysis. I can just see Joe going “…” after the results and adding the “Of course, that’s just offense” qualifying.
Oh, and The Boss won his second Golden Globe for The Wrestler! Of course, I like “Streets of Philadelphia” more, but it’s still an accomplishment that I’m sure would make you happy! (Especially since it’s seeming quite unlikely that Bert Blyleven can hit 75% or Tim Raines hit 50% this year.)
Bringing up Barry Bonds you would be getting something like 22.1 runs a game from him in 2002 if I remember right, and thats was with decent defense, although a little below league average. That is 3580 runs a season. I am almost certain you could have HoRam pitch every game, every inning and still 110+ games.
To Chuck (comment #8 above):
Watch Vlad Guerrero swing sometime. Ron Gant would pee himself.
Dayton, wake up! Texas is shopping Michael Young. They (still) need a third baseman.
Hey Rangers, Alex Gordon would look pretty good at the hot corner, eh? He’d probably benefit from a change of scenery (What hitter wouldn’t improve in TX?), and he’s virtually certain to outperform the string of replacement level third basemen you’ve auditioned in recent years.
But wait! Have a look behind door #2!!! We have…(drum roll please)…Jose Guillen! So you’ve lost Milton Bradley. How can you possibly fill the critical role of fan pariah and clubhouse cancer? Why, with Jose G., of course. He might even bump his OPS+ above 105 in The Ballpark at Arlington.
Ohhhhh, but that’s not all. We’ll even throw in any 2 of the following rising stars: Ross Gload, John Buck, Kyle Farnsworth, or the uber-scrappy Willie Bloomquist. Heck, you can have all four, but only if you ACT NOW! Act now, please act now, please, please, please act now, plea……………..
Was I dreaming again? Damn.
[...] favorite sportswriter, Joe Posnanski, has weighed in on Adam Dunn, sort of. If nothing else, it’s an interesting way to look at baseball fandom: I [...]
At least the Royals can stop using the excuse of being a small market club with no money. Maybe their spending hasn’t kept up with the Yankees, but they have still spent money like a drunkin sailor on leave – so no more small market excuses!
Why hasn’t TP Jr. been released yet? Oh yeah, he’s an ex-Brave.
How many guys can the Royals play at DH? They already have 5 or 6 players who can’t play anywhere else. At least, the field manager MAY not be tempted to put Bloomquist there. Getting ML ready ballplayers in the off-season meat market without a competitive budget is wishful thinking. Drafting guys who project as third basemen has limited appeal as well. High draft picks should play SS or CF or P.
Perhaps the guys who are actually, you know, good in terms of OBP/SLG don’t want to come to the Royals? I think that’s a shame, really. Moore has to use the draft and bring those guys up from the minors in order to compete. Kansas City is probably toxic to free agent hitting. Of course, you could have said the same thing about Tampa last year, but again Tampa has a ton of home grown talent. Their biggest free agent signing was Carlos Peña, and they did throw more money at him than he’s ever seen before (but not a king’s ransom). Not to mention their top crop of drafted pitchers.
Basically, Moore’s free agent performance shouldn’t be much of a concern. How has be been doing in the draft and how is the minor league organizations?
Maybe you should ask Dayton Moore for his definition of an on base guy. Right now it seems to be if a guy reaches base once in a while, then yes he is an on base guy. How can you argue with that? He was on base.
Perhaps you should inform him that his definition needs to be radically changed.
I tend to “lean Dunn” but understand the appeal of a player who works hard and plays hard and sticks in the big leagues based largely on effort and a willingness to do whatever is asked of him. However, as far as a team’s makeup is concerned, I guess it depends on what you mean by a Dunn-philosophy versus a Bloomquist-philosophy.
Is Alex Rodriguez a “Dunn” or a “Bloomquist”? How about Pujols? Sabbathia?
If I’m looking to build a team and (all other factors being equal) have to choose between “Adam Dunn” and “Willie Bloomquist”, I’m definitely going with a mix of both types. And there will be more than just a few Bloomquists, because defense is important, and because I feel as if a team of all-Dunn is really complete.
But if my choices are ARod/Bloomquist or Pujols/Eckstein or Sabbathia/inesrt-scrappy-pitcher-here, my team is going to be pretty lopsided on the side of the ‘SABRmetric guy’. For me, working baseball by the numbers means that I’d much rather find a guy with a ton of talent who also has those intangibles, than to look for a guy who is primarily “an intangibles guy” who is unable to muster even league-average performance.
Then again, in the real world, I would have neither an unlimited budget (unless I was Brian Cashman, anyway) nor a lack of competition for available talent. I get the feeling that I’d make some pretty boneheaded moves in practice. Hopefully not as boneheaded as some of those KC contracts, though.
Correction, the above sentence should read “I *don’t* feel as if a team of all-Dunn is really complete.”
All I could think about while reading what it means to “lean Bloomquist” is the Twins. Thank you for driving that point home. In some respects, you could also call it “leaning Punto.”
Lets all take a second to thank Mr. Gload for taking Grud out for the rest of the season. How many times should a first baseman call off a second baseman for a ball in foul territory?
[...] me as a huge Joe Posnanski fan. On his blog he has a great post on Adam Dunn and Willie Bloomquist.   I wanted Bloomquist on the Mets but he signed with the Royals where he will get a lot of [...]
What frustrates me about the Royals is that they say one thing and then do another. Makes no sense.
You can win with a team (and have a good offense) that isn’t especially good at working the count and drawing walks, the Royals proved that in the late 70s. White was atrocious, Willie Wilson drew very few walks (the years he had a decent OBP it was all from his BA), the shortstops weren’t good at getting on base. Even the good hitters didn’t draw 100 walks a year (Brett’s high was 103 walks in 1985, AO never drew more than 75 walks, Mac never more than 65). Only Mayberry and then Porter were guys who would take a lot of walks.
Of course, the 70s Royals made up for the lack of walks with high batting averages, lots of team speed and very good team defense. Somehow, I don’t see Jacobs and Guillen as providing the kind of team speed and defense that Al Cowens and Willie Wilson provided.
By 1985, the Royals had lost a lot of the team speed and defense (Wilson and White were older and slower, Balboni had replaced Mayberry, the shortstops were not close to Patek or even Washington) and they still didn’t have much in the way of high OBP players (in fact, they were probably worse, the only guy on the team that had any patience other than Brett was Pat Sheridan, a part time player), but of course that year, their offense was awful. And this team is a heck of a lot more like the 1985 team offensively than the late 70s teams. So unless Greinke, Meche, Bannister, and Davies pitch like Saberhagen, Jackson, Leibrandt and Gubicza did in 1985 , I don’t see how the Royals are going to turn this around.
“Because he’s got some speed, he’s versatile and “He’s an on base guy(??), a speed-type player and a hustler.â€
You forgot that he hustles. Dayton Moore made absolutely sure to say that Willie Bloomquist is both a hustler AND that he hustles. This was very important to Dayton.
I think it’s pretty safe to say that the Dayton Moore Experience in Kansas City isn’t going to end well. In fact, it never even started well either. This guy is a worthless GM, end of story.
I think Joe explained the Dustin Pedroia MVP selection last year. When a Bloomquest guy actually has a good Dunn year, they have a good MVP shot unless someone is just blowing away the competition. It’s hard to judge moves, as one needs to know the context of what other choices the GM has. I mean, look at what Texeira, a guy who is pretty good on both ends got…. For the Bloomquest way kinda working, don’t the 2007 Rockies fall in that area?(Of course, then they ran into a team that also did the little things….and could get on base and get people out). I favor stats, but I do think you need a certain amount of the intangibles to be successful. ( I can’t think of an all stat team that worked. Maybe the 2009 Yankee’s?)
Dayton, wake up! Texas is shopping Michael Young. They (still) need a third baseman.
… Heck, you can have all four, but only if you ACT NOW! Act now, please act now, please, please, please act now, plea……………..
Was I dreaming again? Damn.
Are you that excited about Michael Young? Since 2005, his OBP has spiralled downwards (a small uptick in 2007 notwithstanding), as has his slugging, and concurrently his OPS ofcourse. His strikeouts have increased every year.
Combine that with the fact that he is one of the three worst fielding shortstops in the major leagues, AND he is owed (IIRC) around 9 million dollars this year.
Yay, Michael Young?
There is a reason why Texas is shopping him…
You know, for everyone dogging Boom Boom, the guy had a .377 OBP last year and drew a very good amount of walks considering he has no power (possibly less power than Juan Pierre) and was in an awful lineup. And unlike a lot of guys lauded for speed, he’s a high percentage base stealer with an 81% career clip, meaning he isn’t just an out machine on the bases.
I understand you don’t want Boom Boom to be your premiere offseason acquisition, and he probably got too much money/too many years, but cut the guy a break; he’s not nearly as bad as you make him out to be.
JimRI,
Here’s an “all-stat” team that worked:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/1998.shtml
Unless Jeter is your Bloomquist. Or Brosius, but then again he went out and Dunn-ed it up that year for some reason.
And the 2007 Rockies were 2nd in the NL in walks and led in OBP. No team with Todd Helton could ever be a Bloomquist team.
I lean Dunn, clearly.
Kansas City is probably toxic to free agent hitting.
First of, I don’t think there are very many hitters that understand such a thing as Park Factors and take that into account for where they will go and play/hit.
Second, I could see a player not wanting to go to a team because that team is mired in losing (a la the Royals) and the player wants to play for a team with a reasonable shot at the world series. (and let’s face it, if you offer enough money, they’ll come play anyways.) But players who don’t go somewhere because it’s a bad place to hit at? I think there’s very few of those.
If it’s truly a fear of Kansas City being bad for hitters, well, in 2008 Kauffman ranked 25th in Park Factors, so that would seem to be a possibility. But in 2007 it ranked 11th, and in 2006 it ranked 6th. In 2005 it ranked 18th.
So I don’t really think that that’s a major concern. (And Park Factors are kinda stupid anyways, because they are way too heavily influenced by the quality of the home teams hitters. If you have Pujols, Ortiz, Manny, A-Rod and Howard playing for your home team, I’m pretty sure your park will be ranked #1 in Park Factors, even if it’s Pac Bell.
I think whether or not you lean Dunn or Bloomquist has a lot to do with how you grew up cheering for the game. As an Atlanta native, I’ve always watched the Braves go for guys who play good, fundamental baseball. I know that’s not necessarily Willie or Adam, but it does mean that it’s hard for me to cheer for a team that doesn’t seem to care deeply about the game. Despite my love for statistics and my genuine desire that the Braves will sign Dunn, I don’t know how much I’d like it if they actually did manage to do it.
You know, for everyone dogging Boom Boom, the guy had a .377 OBP last year
Don’t draw conclusions based off one year, but look at his entire career. He had 25 walks last year, but it was in only 165 at-bats, leading to a good OBP. In the five years before that, he walked 19, 10, 11, 24, and 10 times. His career OBP is .322, so I think it’s pretty safe to say that Willie isn’t going to post a .377 OBP this year.
What a player’s done over the length of his career is a far better indicator of what he will/might do than what the player has done over a single year.
a lot of great R. Henderson stories in the papers this weekend.
amazing that he didn’t get 100% even here on this website. hilarious.
Holy crap — Willie Bloomquist is a white guy?? This is literally the first time I’ve seen a picture of the guy. I just assumed with the name “Willie Bloomquist” that he was a black dude. There’s one for Bill Simmons’ Reggie Cleveland All-Stars.
I think the better comparison would be Dunn and Pete Rose. That’s the comparison that led me and other Reds fans to cheer when Dunn and his equally lazy and dour counterpart, Griffey Jr., were traded out of town last year.
FYI – Under the musinator a team of Rose’s would account for 5.343 runs per game or 882 per season. Given the Rose won two gold gloves and started the All-Star game at five different positions, it wouldn’t be too shabby in the field.
Creston, you make a good point. And no, I’m not THAT excited about Michael Young. I’m sure you noticed the not so subtle hint of hyperbole in my comment. The cornerstone, if you could even call it that, of that absurd 6 for 1 trade would be getting rid of Jose Guillen, and a slew of replacement (or lower) level players.
As an aside, I haven’t given up on Alex Gordon, although his defensive regression was troubling, he’s still 25 yrs. old. In fact, his .351 OBP was utterly stellar when viewed within the context of the Royals lineup as a whole.
62.7% by Blyleven…22.6% by Raines. I really hope that these numbers are the result of Rickey being on the ballot, because if not, then it really appears as though they’ll be getting on via the VC. ><
Geez, I’m so depressed now.
“So I don’t really think that that’s a major concern. (And Park Factors are kinda stupid anyways, because they are way too heavily influenced by the quality of the home teams hitters. If you have Pujols, Ortiz, Manny, A-Rod and Howard playing for your home team, I’m pretty sure your park will be ranked #1 in Park Factors, even if it’s Pac Bell.”
I was not referring to park factors (but it comes up a lot when someone signs for the Red Sox, for example). My point is that KC is not desirable for a good hitter, and well, pitchers too I suppose (I didn’t mention pitchers because of Gil Meche). Unless they seriously overpay (and they usually don’t, except in GilgaMeche’s case), why would you go to Kansas City over some other place?
It’s a chicken and egg issue.
Rice & Henderson. The Hall of Fame baffles me. What can possibly the rationale (is there one?) for what’s happening with Blyleven, Trammel, and Raines? I really just don’t get it. Are there really THAT many baseball writers who live in caves?
Interesting post… and frightening to look at a list of all of the players the Royals are investing recently (makes me glad to be a Pirates fan, and you can bet I almost never get to say that)
One thought I had though… for one reason or another, I tend to think that if you considered the hall of fame voters as a whole, they seem to lean towards being Bloomquist people as a unit than Dunn people… obviously neither one of those guys would make the cut to go to the hall, but among the players on the edge, it seems like the hustle guys – the ones who get dirty and love to play the game – seem to fair much better in the voting than those who put up bigger numbers with less fanfare.
Is that just the way I view it or does everyone think that Hall of Fame voters really do lean Bloomquist as a group?
Today is the happiest day in Paul White’s life
I’m sure you noticed the not so subtle hint of hyperbole in my comment.
3rd Period Points,
Yes I did notice, but it seemed like you still kinda wanted to trade for the guy.
My point is that KC is not desirable for a good hitter, and well, pitchers too I suppose (I didn’t mention pitchers because of Gil Meche). Unless they seriously overpay (and they usually don’t, except in GilgaMeche’s case), why would you go to Kansas City over some other place?
Dan,
I agree, but does that mean a team like Kansas City should just accept they’ll never get anybody? While we can argue over whether a 10-15 million dollar player is a good investment on a team that’s not going anywhere anytime soon, it’s probably a better investment than spending 10-15 million dollars on a bunch of scrubs.
There will always be players who WILL take your money.
And the flipside, if you don’t spend any money on FAs, then at least you should spend it in Latin America and the draft, right? I don’t think the Royals are doing anything there either…
Sad day for the Hall of Fame standards as the clearly undeserving Jim Rice was elected following the Peter Gammons and Dan Shaugnessy decade long PR campaign to boost his stock. Sad, sad day.
Can we not do another 50,000 post Jim Rice debate?
He’s in. End of story. One of the worst 5 selections by the writers but there are a lot of VC guys who are much worse. The HoF isn’t going to collapse.
Nathan:
Are you comparing Jim Rice to Willie Bloomquist?
The writers cream their pants over Lil Eckstein; wanna bet on his HoF chances? I’m guessing unless he suddenly becomes a 40 homer a year guy, he doesn’t even make it off his first ballot.
BTW, Young ranked 3rd among AL SS’s in the 2008 Fielding Bible award voting, behind E. Aybar & O. Cabrera. He was 11th in MLB overall. Those voters aren’t exactly schlubs. His range factor was 7th highest in MLB, and 2nd in the AL (behind the same 2 guys) in 2008.
The 2008 Dewan +/- bottom 6 SS’s in MLB were:
Y. Betancourt -19
J. Keppinger -14
Bobby Crosby -13
Alex Cintron -12
David Eckstein -12
Derek Jeter -12
5 of those were in the AL. That’s quite a dearth of defensive talent. To be fair, Young has 5th worst +/- (-32) in MLB over the last 3 years. And for the record, I’m taking all these stats from the ‘09 Bill James Handbook.
So he scores high on range factor and low on +/-. I think it’s a stretch to call him one of the 3 worst defensive SS’s in all of baseball. I’d say that assertion is false, but as with many defensive arguments, absolute declarations are difficult to prove, even with the advanced metrics we have today.
You are spot regarding Young’s steady offensive decline. His peak production is long gone, as you would expect from a 31 year old. His OBP year to year:
2002 – .308 (1st full season)
2003 – .339
2004 – .353
2005 – .385
2006 – .356
2007 – .366
2008 – .339
Career – .346
He did play 155+ games in each of those seasons.
Really, I was just trying to mock Dayton and here I am semi-defending Michael Young, for crying out loud! His Gold Glove WAS laughable, and he’s precisely the type of player I hate. If the Rangers want you to play 3B, shut your pie-hole and get started charging bunts.
This is a good discussion. Probably similar to the dialogue taking place in a front office at this very moment.
As usual the perfect reaction from Mr. Posnanski. Any way Dayton Moore can now be called “Two-Face”?
Well, congrats to Rickey and Rice (no, I’m not a Rice supporter and don’t think he deserves a spot in the Hall, but enough voters disagreed.)
For what it’s worth, according to Bill James’ HoF Monitor, Rice should have been expected to go into the Hall. McGwire’s the only eligible player who racked up more points in terms of what the voters tend to look for in electing players (to clarify, before I’m crucified, this doesn’t measure whether a player SHOULD be elected. It only looks at whether a player WILL be elected.)
No sour grapes. Rice had a few great seasons and put up some very good numbers in Fenway. He got elected, and my hat’s off to him for that.
As for the others who deserved the call – Raines, Bert, Tram and possibly McGwire, depending on your steroid stance – I think (and HOPE) that their decrease in the voting totals came because some voters were blown away by Rickey being on the ballot. Raines, I would assume, may have suffered more because some guys might have felt strange for some reason voting for Rickey and then a similar (but lesser) player on the same ballot.
Also, 28 voters didn’t check the box next to Rickey’s name? Double-you-tee-eff?
Joe’s got to be in shock at Rice getting voted into the Hall. He made it by 7 votes in his last year on the ballot. Seems like a stealth campaign may have been run.
As for the Michael Young situation, I had a talk with a friend today who suggested that our home team (the Jays) should look at dealing for him.
I pointed out that the guy’s been declining, and playing in a hitter’s haven. PLUS, from what I’ve seen, he’s owed $62 million over the next five years, during which he’ll likely decline more.
His Gold Glove wasn’t merited, but defensively, the past few years have been pretty weak as defensive AL shortstops go. Even when Jeter was winning GGs, I couldn’t get that annoyed, because there just weren’t a lot of truly great players manning the position in the AL then, just as there aren’t now.
Having said that, Betancourt was the worst SS in MLB in +/- last year? Wow. Don’t people RAVE about his defense? Isn’t that sort of considered his calling card? Guess that’s another strike against the conventional wisdom spewed out by announcers.
I agree that Young should suck it up and move to third, but is his reluctance to do so any worse than Jeter not moving when A-Rod came on board? If anything, Jeter seems MORE selfish – Young likely feels he has a right to stay on as the resident Gold Glover rather than being displaced by a rookie. Jeter, meanwhile, kept his position despite a much better defensive shortstop coming to town.
EIGHTY-SEVENTH
“Today is the happiest day in Paul White’s life.”
I’ve been married for over 18 years to my high school sweatheart, the love of my life. We have two beautiful, smart, kind-hearted children. I was lucky enough to have a wonderful childhood with great parents and fabulous siblings. My newest nephew, named for my late father, was born on Christmas Eve. In sports, I watched the Red Sox win the World Series twice and was a sophomore living on campus when my school won the NCAA tournament. I saw the Patriots win three Super Bowls and the Celtics win a half-dozen NBA titles. Hell, I still have a vague memory of Bobby Orr’s Bruins winning the Stanley Cup.
In short, there have been a lot of really great days in my life, some related to sports, most not. This is a good one, to be sure, but it doesn’t come particularly close to being the best.
Paul White:
Admit it, you’d rank this under your first child being born, but over your wedding day.
Justin, your comment about Yuniesky made me go back and double check. I’ve heard and read the same thing about his defensive prowess many a time. Yep, his -19 was dead last in ‘08. At -32, he’s tied with Michael Young for 4th worst since ‘06.
Jeter is by far the worst since ‘06 at -68! Hanley Ramirez with a 3 year cumulative total of -40 is a very distant second. That’s stunning, actually. You’re right, Derek Jeter’s stubborn hubris was/is off the charts.
“If you have Pujols, Ortiz, Manny, A-Rod and Howard playing for your home team, I’m pretty sure your park will be ranked #1 in Park Factors, even if it’s Pac Bell.”
That’s not the way it works. Those guys are also going to score a lot of runs on the road.
To hell with Pete Rose and the Reds fans who cheered Dunn’s departure.
The Reds have definitely gone Bloomquist, complete with the idiotic “played on a championship team,” “can really go get it in the outfield,” and “creates havoc on the basepaths” rationalizations. Our two big signings this off-season: Willy Taveras and Jerry Hairston Jr. (Incredibly, Ryan Freel was traded away).
It hit me late this afternoon. Dayton Moore in picking up Willie Bloomquist, the scrappy, hustling, hard-nosed, “plays the game the right way”, and did I mention hustling? utility infielder…he’s practicing faith-based general managing. Put the Right Kind of Player out there and you have to win. Don’t listen to all those annoying statistics; facts just get in the way of True Belief. That’s it.
Now I’m really depressed about the future of the Royals.
I’m in the Dunn/Defense group.
I think I’d rather have Willie Bloomquist and his contract than Aaron Miles at 2 years and $4,900,000
Chuck #8 and Daniel #50 –
I guess I am dating myself, but obviously neither one of you ever saw Jim Gentile play (1B; BAL 60-63, KC 64 were his full-time years).
Gentile swung so hard he would injure himself on the back of his legs from his follow-through; by the end of the season, the back of his upper legs would be one huge black-and-blue mark. I never saw it happen, but there is anecdotal evidence that he would break his bat occasionally on the back of his legs (and this was back in the day of real bats, not that maple crap they use nowadays that shatters if you sneeze on it).
Now THAT is a hard swing.
As for modern-day players, I think we are overlooking Gary Sheffield. I don’t know what it was, but that baseball obviously did something very, very bad to him, because when he swings, he looks like he’s trying to kill it.
“So he scores high on range factor and low on +/-. I think it’s a stretch to call him one of the 3 worst defensive SS’s in all of baseball.”
He somehow got a lot better. Let me readjust that to saying that he has BEEN one of the three worst shortstops in all of baseball. Maybe he took extra fielding practice or something.
“That’s not the way it works. Those guys are also going to score a lot of runs on the road.”
Yes, obviously they will. But I don’t think it’s any secret that a player plays better at home, no matter what his home park is, simply because he’s more comfortable, didn’t have to travel, didn’t have to sleep in a crappy hotel bed etc.
It’s probably a percentages thing. X% better at home than on the road?
X% of Willie Bloomquist isn’t much to get excited about. X% of Albert Pujols is probably pretty noticeable. Multiply that by a certain number of excellent players, and those numbers are going to shift.
If that’s not it, how do we explain that some parks can rank 25th one year, and 6th two years later? Favorable winds?
My guess is it’s the quality of the home team’s hitter (and quality of all the pitchers on the mound.)
And as such, by basing Park Factors off such things that are influenced by the quality of the players, they’ll never be very accurate.
I think part of the problem here is the failure to examine the issue from the standpoint of the fan.
Most people seem to be arguing this from the position of the manager (or general manager), whose job is to win the most ballgames possible. The job of the team president might be to maximize net revenues (or minimize net losses).
But the fan just wants to watch a good ballgame and root for the team. Look at the 1960’s Mets, as pathetic a bunch as has ever worn the uniform. Yet the fans loved them, and came out in droves to watch.
Conversely: Imagine a team made up of guys like Pierzynski, Bonds, Kingman, Belle, Dukes, and the like. Very good ballplayers, but who would want to root for them?
Same for talented though visibly indifferent clock-watchers like Dunn or Kevin McReynolds.
I’d much rather root for Willie Bloomquist and Jamey Carroll, despite vastly inferior baseball skills.
[...] feel like we’re beating a dead horse. Nick said it. I said it. Joe Posnanski and Rany Jazayerli said it. And now I’m saying it again: The Kansas City Royals need more [...]