Trapped by numbers
Posted: January 7th, 2009 | Filed under: Baseball, Pop Culture | 133 Comments »
So, here’s what I propose: We retire 42 in honor of Jackie Robinson. I don’t mean we just retire the uniform number 42 in baseball. I mean we retire the number 42, period, it’s gone, it’s lying on a beach somewhere. From now on, hotels jump from Floor 41 to Floor 43. We call the Broadway Show “41st Street.†Mulder no longer lives in apartment number 42, and House no longer claims his favorite number. The ‘80s song “Something About You,†is no longer sung by the English pop band Level 42. They’ve moved up to Level 43. Bill Clinton is no longer the 42nd president of the United States of America*
*He isn’t the 42nd President anyway when you consider that historians CONTINUE to count Grover Cleveland twice because he served two non-concurrent terms. What kind of sham are they trying to perpetrate on the American people, anyway? He was ONE GUY. Grover Cleveland. He didn’t have multiple personalities. He didn’t have amnesia and start a whole new life. One guy. I remember a teacher, whatever grade that was, saying: “Grover Cleveland is counted twice because his terms were not consecutive.†Wait, who says? What kind of rule is that?
No, this madness stops now. Bill Clinton is the 41st man to serve as President, and George W. Bush is the 42nd … only, conveniently, we are skipping 42, so George W. remains the 43rd president. That way we can stay on schedule, which will make the Barack Obama Victory Plates as valuable as ever.
Anyway, this new 42 rule begins at midnight Jan. 7 … at which point I will turn 41 all over again.
* * *
One of my favorite people in the business, the ubiquitous Ken Rosenthal, is writing a piece — maybe he already has written it — in which he argues strongly that Andre Dawson belongs in the Hall of Fame. I guess that I’m one of the foils for the story (along with another favorite Ken Davidoff) because I have written on numerous occasions that while I love Dawson and want to vote for him, I find that I just cannot because of that lifetime .323 on-base percentage.
Ken Rosenthal — too many Kens here — makes the argument that on-base percentage was not stressed during Dawson’s time, and he was a great, great player in every other way with all the homers and all the stolen bases and all the Gold Gloves. I think that’s a strong argument … I told Ken that he might very well be on the right side of this. In fact, I don’t feel too great being on MY side of the argument. I have thought Dawson about as much as I’ve thought about anyone on the ballot … and at times I have thought, “You know, he was so good in so many areas, and he was a class guy and a leader, maybe I should …â€
… and, I still have not been able to pull the trigger. And here is why: Because on-base percentage is just so much bigger than so many people seem to realize. On-base percentage is not some convoluted modern statistic. On-base percentage is not something new … it goes back to the time before Cobb. On-base percentage is not even about walks. On-base percentage is simply the core of baseball, the very heart of it since the first ball hit the first stick. It is about how many times a batter gets on — and, conversely, how many times he makes outs. It is what the game is all about.
It isn’t about walks, it really isn’t. That’s one thing everyone seems to miss. You say OBP and everyone says, “Oh walks.†But that’s not it. Walks and hits by pitch make up a pretty small portion of on-base percentage. Most of it is hitting. True, Andre Dawson did not walk at all. But thats not the real point: He hit .277 for his career, which is OK but certainly not stellar. If he had hit .295 or .300, his on-base percentage would be significantly higher and nobody would be talking about any of this. His on-base percentage is a reflection of a whole lot more than walks: Do you know how many outfielders there are in Hall of Fame with batting averages of .277 or lower? Two. Reggie Jackson and Ralph Kiner. Dawson doesn’t really compare to either of them. The first hit 500 home runs and was Mr. October. The second led the league in homers for seven straight years and, yes, he also finished first or second in walks six straight times. And, remember, it took FOREVER for Kiner to get in.
Then we can point out again, that no outfielder in the Hall of Fame has an OBP within 20 points of Dawson’s .323.
Look: Dawson got on base less often than the average Major Leaguer of his time. That’s just a very tough thing to overlook. Dawson certainly has the strong counter arguments — almost 2,800 hits, 438 homers, 314 stolen bases, eight Gold Gloves. I respect Ken’s argument, and certainly have great admiration for Andre Dawson. But that’s my thinking.
* * *
Speaking of Hall of Fame … brilliant reader Mick writes in to ask: Will Mark Grace be the only guy to lead a decade in hits and NOT make the Hall of Fame?
The quick answer is: No. Not as long as Pete Rose is out there*. Pete led the 1970s in hits by a mile — he hit 2,045. I originally had him with the obscure decade hits record, but as a couple of brilliant readers pointed out, I had overlooked Rogers Hornsby in the 1920s. Still, 2,045 hits is a lot (Ichiro could break Hornsby’s record with 241 hits next season … I suspect he won’t get there, but it’s not really fair anyway because Ichiro did not play in U.S. in 2000. If we count his 153 Japanese hits that year, he would pass Hornsby sometime in June).
*09/09/09
But I assume Mick did not mean Pete … I think he meant: Will Mark Grace be the only guy not banned for life to lead a decade in hits and NOT make the Hall of Fame?
Now, it gets trickier. On the one hand, the answer is yes. Everyone who led what we consider a full decade in hits, other than Rose, is in the Hall of Fame:
1990-99: Mark Grace with 1754 hits
1980-89 Robin Yount with 1,731
1970-79: Pete Rose with 2,045
1960-69: Roberto Clemente with 1,877
1950s: Richie Ashburn with 1,875
1940s: Lou Boudreau with 1,578
1930s: Paul Waner with 1,959
1920s: Rogers Hornsby with 2,085
1910s: Ty Cobb with 1,948
1900s: Honus Wagner with 1847
But, that’s a pretty simplistic answer. There are several players have led the league in hits for a decade and not gone to the Hall of Fame.
For instance: Willie Wilson led baseball in hits from 1979 to 1988 with 1,727. I like WIllie a lot, and I still say he might be the fastest man to ever play Major League baseball. But he is not going to the Hall of Fame.
Steve Garvey led baseball in hits from the 1975-84. He’s not going to the Hall either.
And so on.
I’m not a big fan of decade stats. I think it’s swell that Jack Morris led the 1980s in wins. He also led the decade in runs allowed, in wild pitches and in base runners allowed. All in all, it doesn’t tell me much.
* * *
As numerous brilliant readers point out: I was remiss in not giving full love to the ShamWow — the shammy, towel, sponge that holds 20X its weight in liquid. It was a huge oversight … love, love, love the ShamWow. Brilliant readers have already made most of the great points about the commercials. First, there’s Vince Offer who is flat BERATING you for not buying the ShamWow. He’s like this new generation pitchman … most pitchmen and pitchwomen (pitchpeople) have gone for the gentle but firm Ron Popeil “Look how easy this is going to make your life,†style of pitch.
But Offer has a whole new thing: “Holy cow, you are a COMPLETE MORON if you don’t buy this towel thingy. In fact, I can’t believe you haven’t bought it already. Olympic drivers use these. And you don’t have one? How do you sleep at night?â€
Then, he says that ShamWow is going to save you big money because you are spending, what, twenty bucks a month on paper towels. Seriously, I don’t think major universities are spending 20 bucks a month on paper towels. You can get like 894 cases of Bounty at Costco for like $3.39, right?* I have to say it might have been a misread for Vince to go for the cost effectiveness of the ShamWow. He should have sucked more Coca Cola out of a rug.
*It’s great — the paper towel package is too big to even put in the shopping cart, you have to stick in the underhead compartment space, where you are GUARANTEED to forget it when you get to the front cash register.
But my favorite part — the part I don’t think anyone mentioned — is at the very end, when they have the telephone number on the screen, the price, the credit cards they accept and the typical informational tidbits: “Not In Stores†“Beware of Imitators†— I love that too, by the way. Beware of Imitators. I can just imagine someone placing the order, then it arrives, he excitedly goes to the box and sees in big letters: ShamPow.
Man: No!. What’s this? No, this isn’t what I wanted. This is a cheap towel thing. I ordered a different cheap towel thing. No!
Woman: Didn’t it say to beware of imitators?
Man: I know, but it looked just like the ShamWow …
Woman: I told you. You didn’t read the instructions. It said beware of imitators.
But the third informational tidbit is the one I love most: “Made in Germany.†Now, why would they have that up there? And the announcer tells us that it’s made in Germany too, in case we can’t read. And Vince Offer mentioned it too in his pitch with his classic line: “You know the Germans always make good stuff.†Um …
My point is, why did they take the pitch that direction? If it said: “Made in USA,†OK, I’d get it, we’re trying to play the patriotic card. But what possible good could come out of people knowing that the ShamWow is made in Germany? Are there people out there thinking: “Well, Germany is known for their shammy-type products. Who could forget the ShamCow, which was only a four inch square but could suck up an entire half-gallon carton of milk. And the ShamPlow. Those Germans are Shammerrific.â€
Here it is for all you Shambirds out there …
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When I worked as a cashier in a supermarket(before moving to frozen food and then the deli, both of which were so much more fun than cashiering… I always thought that TBS sitcom 10 Items Or Less really blew it when they didn’t just cast a bunch of college-age kids and the stuff they did working in a grocery store, but I digress) they drilled us on looking at the bottom of the basket every time. They even set up a mirror system that didn’t work at all because the cart would block the mirror. In the end it was up to having a bagger that would see it.
Happy Birthday Joe
All the best
Thanks for posting this.
Why is Vince wearing a headset? Is it to prove that the ShamWow is not affected by nearby phone waves?
wasn’t there a year in the 1880’s where walks were counted as hits? That right there shows people were very aware of the importance of gettin’ on base even without a hit…waaayyy before the 70’s. I don’t care if your average fan or average sportscaster wasn’t focused on the stat itself… they definitely had to be aware of the concept and its importance. I agree with you on that. When I was a kid and watching basdeball (‘83), I remember Phil Rizzuto saying things like “he does a great job of getting on base” when talkin’ about certain players. I think people forget that moneyball didn’t invent OBP.
Nope, Devon, walks did not exist until after Moneyball. It is proven. Scott Hatteberg didn’t either.
As for the Shamwow and “Made in Germany”, I think the idea is that it’s not made in China, Taiwan, Korea, Pakistan, etc. People have an idea that stuff made there is somehow inferior, because (econ nerd time) they don’t understand how exploiting comparative advantage reduces cost, and figure if it’s that much cheaper, there must be something wrong with it. The recent well-known problems with goods coming from China only reinforces this view. Products from Germany don’t have this same stigma because, if anything, they tend to be more expensive (just think about cars: Mercedes, Porsche, etc.).
Joaldo, I’ll be honest. I don’t like the new look at all. But I’d read you on fricken papyrus leaves if that’s what I had to do. Happy New Year.
The obvious question: What, then, is the answer to the great question of life, the universe and everything?
The ShamWow guy has a new one – SlapChop. It is glorious.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUbWjIKxrrs
If your own list is accurate, then Hornsby has the record for hits in a decade, not Rose.
forty-thru
I like my idea for the Snuggie made out of a Sham Wow I mentioned in the Snuggie post.
I think he wears the headset because that side of his face doesn’t move. You have to look carefully but it looks like that side just stays the same.
Are there people out there thinking: “Well, Germany is known for their shammy-type products.
I don’t know about that, but now that you mention it, Germany *is* known for not having many messy puddles lying around unsponged…
Are there people out there thinking: “Well, Germany is known for their shammy-type products.
I don’t know about that, but now that you mention it, Germany *is* known for not having many messy puddles lying around unsponged…
(let’s see if we can close the tabs this time)
Happy Birthday, Joe! Happy forty-twone.
makes the argument that on-base percentage was not stressed during Dawson’s time,
Except, of course, that it is pretty doubtful the Hawk would have had an appreciably higher OBP had he known it to be important. This isn’t like faulting a pitcher from 40 years ago for not throwing a splitter – when in fact he might well have been able to learn it had he known about it. And, as you point out, he wasn’t great at everything else, because he rather sucked at BA, which is an important part of OBP.
The other thing is this: is there any other *worthy* player who either excelled in a part of the game we don’t now consider as important or was deficient in a part of the game, but the deficiency wasn’t recognized at the time? In other words, which worth HOF member got the benefit of this Rosenthal argument?
I can think of some *unworthy* players (Lloyd Waner, I’m looking at you) who may have benefited from a poor contemporary metric assessment (ie. overemphasis on BA and on not striking out), but it’s hardly like we want to repeat those – ahemveteranvommittee – mistakes*.
*Although there’s an argument that Lou Brock, with the overawe of SB may fit the bill, but I think that aside from the Sabermetric crowd, Brock would still likely get elected today – in part because of his counting stats (ie. hits) and in part because we still generally like SB…not to mention that the SB actually did have more value in the low offence era Brock played in.
~
Anyway, Happy Birthday Joe.
Happy Birthday, Joe!
Does anyone remember the Seinfeld episode where Kramer and Newman was throwing a Millineum party? And they were planning it like 3 years before the end of the decade. Then Jerry responds with something like, “But the millenium doesn’t start until 2001.”
I’ve actually agreed with Jerry all along. A new decade should start at 1991, 2001, 2011, etc. I never understood why people don’t embrace this…I guess it might just be a visual thing with the numbers.
what?? you don’t remember the year 0 ??
To me, the most succinct explanation for the primacy of OBP is this: it is the opposite of outs. I don’t care what decade you’re in, outs are bad, and Andre Dawson made a lot of outs. 7621 of ‘em.
If he’d just had an OBP of .350 (which still isn’t all that great) Dawson would have almost 300 fewer outs over his career. That may not seem like much, but Hall of Fame arguments can be made or broken on the difference between 2700 and 3000 hits.
If we just kept track of out percentage instead of on-base percentage, I suspect this would not be controversial.
Happy Birthday, Joe.
It’s kinda fitting that Dawson and Vada Pinson finished right next to each other in career hits. Both were very good players, never quite had that monster peak, and were flawed enough not to be hall of fame material.
I can’t believe I was unaware that we’ve been counting Grover Cleveland (don’t call me Alexander) 2 friggin times. I am a serious fan of Presidential trivia. I know all about the infamous Chester Arthur Canadian connections. I’ve seen the dumbwaiter in Monticello. I’ve gazed upon the hemp fields at Mount Vernon. OK, I’ve never been to Mount Vernon, but you get the idea.
We cannot count Grover twice!
Wait, maybe we do have to count him twice. I mean, Billy Martin can’t just be the 22nd manager of the Yankees, can he?
I agree with Matt. The big thing about OBP is that it’s the opposite of making outs. That’s the real power of it. And not making outs has always been important.
I hope you have a wonderful birthday Joe.
My favorite infomercial guy will continue to be chef tony with his knives. my fiancee’s dad actually ordered two sets of those knives. their quality is surprisingly good.
Happy Birthday Joe!!
>>”I’ve actually agreed with Jerry all along. A new decade should start at 1991, 2001, 2011, etc. I never understood why people don’t embrace this…I guess it might just be a visual thing with the numbers.”<<
No one really disputes your point. 2000 and 2001 are arbitrary numbers, anyway. We all know that our planet is older than that, and that there’s at least some disagreement as to exactly when The Baby Jesus was born. The thing is, every one of us, from the time we learned how to write, wrote 19- something on everything from school papers to water towers to checks. The change from 19- to 20- was the big thing.
Hey about Billy Mays and the ESPN.360 ‘commercial?’ How funny is that? “I’m not that good of a reader.” Golden
A very important part of the commercial is overlooked. Watch when he says how long the Sham Wow will last. He covers his mouth and you can hear the audio change when he says “10 years”. It’s like they just didn’t know what would be long enough to get the sale, but eventually figured out that ten years would be perfect.
How’s this for a collection of January 8th birthdays:
Elvis Presley, Larry Storch, Soupy Sales, Bob Eubanks and Stephen Hawking. Joe, you fit right in. Happy Birthday.
good point about the Cleveland / Billy Martin angle.
@ Joe:
Love the Billy Mays ESPN 360 spot.
“Because sports at work is better than work at work.”
Joe, by your plan of eliding forty-two and sliding right in to forty-three, well, wouldn’t that make this your forty-third birthday? I think you might want to reexamine this one!
Happy birthday, Joaldo!
Happy Birthday Joe!
How about a post on the awesome Obama Victory Plate and the Obama Coin? Those are everywhere now. In San Francisco the city council is debating a resolution to make the Obama coin the city’s official currency and to peg it to the Euro.
Just a heads up for the ShamWow fans. The Lady and I were in Target 2 nights ago and saw the ShamWow on display for sale…it IS in stores! We actually had a conversation about purchasing the product. We passed but I think the next trip it will be in (not under) the cart.
Thanks for all the great material and happy birthday Joe.
HBTY
HBTY
HBDJ
HBTY
I wasn’t really around when Dawson and Rice were in their primes, but it certainly seems like they were viewed as sure fire HOFers while they played. Thinking of those two (neither of whom I think should be in the Hall) always makes me wonder what players of the 90’s-2000’s that were always kind of assumed to be HOFers won’t make it (PED issues are kind of a special case, so I’m not talking about Bonds and Clemens). Bagwell? Alomar?
Happy birthday, Joe!
Joe,
I read a blurb somewhere that the Royals would not sign Hairston Jr due to religion.
Hillman “Christian” vs J. Witness -
Please tell me that this is not how the baseball decisions are made.
thanks.
Just to confirm the report from above, I saw the ShamWow in a Bed, Bath, and Beyond store…..we had time to go.
Oh, and the retiring of the number 42 can also be in honor of Pat Tillman, who also donned the number.
^^ Jon:
What about Home Depot? Have time for any wallpaper, flooring?
Happy birthday, Joe.
And I was surprised it took eight messages for someone to bring in the Douglas Adams reference.
As an 11 year old playing little league ball I figured out that getting on base was very important. And nobody had to tell me this. Is Rosenthal saying Dawson should get a break because he’s not too bright? Or never took the time to think about what hitting was all about? Pretty lame argument, KR. And happy b-day, Joe!
Just wanted to see if this would accept my comment seeing as it’s number … well you know
whoops
I’m in one of those awkward life occurrences where everyone is saying Happy Birthday and I have to pretend all along that I actually KNEW it was someone’s birthday. So… Happy Birthday?
On another note, someone mentioned a phenomenal product in the comments of your other note on commercials for worthless products. I think it needs to be said that the ads for the amplifier thing that looks like a giant bluetooth is one of the most ludicrous commercials I’ve ever seen. I was dumbfounded when I first saw it. “John is such a nice guy, I’m really glad he’s in the neighborhood.”
Really? How does he not hear the people whispering, “Why does that idiot have something strapped to the side of his face at a party?” I guess that wouldn’t be very helpful for advertising purposes, but it’s far more honest than the girl walking on the beach hearing people comment about how good she looks.
Well actually, Joe, your own logic defies you. If you eliminate 42, then 41 is followed sequentially by 43. 41 is gone, over, done. Happy 43rd Birthday, Joe! You’ve successfully aged yourself an extra year!
If you beat OBP into us, while telling us how UNimportant BA is, then I think we are all safe to assume that OBP IS all about walks. Yes, if his BA were higher, he would have a higher OBP. But with BA unimportant as you teach us, then raising OBP is about walking more.
Well the difference between Dawson’s OBP and BA is .044. I wonder what the average difference between BA and OBP is for a player from the 80’s? It’s probably a little low, as a HOFer like George Brett had a difference of .064, a full 2 percentage points higher. On B-R, they do have park adjusted numbers for that. Turns out Brett was average at OBP as the average difference was .066. And Dawson’s difference for when he played was .067. So he was way below average at walking. And while that’s bad, the real trouble here is batting average. If he would have batted .302 he would have 3000 hits and we wouldn’t be discussing this.
As a factor that should put Raines in the HOF, I think we should also look at Dawson’s steals. A 314 steal and 438 homer combination is a rare blend of speed and power. There are only 3 players ever to get 300 SB/400 HR combo. Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, and Dawson. Of course those first two names are HOFers (well maybe Bonds is), and they also hit a LOT more home runs than Dawson. Alex Rodriguez will also join this group with 17 more steals. Dawson is the lesser man of the 4, but that is still quite a group.
In the end, it seems like Dawson is THE borderline candidate to judge all borderline cases on in the future.
But what do we do about the ultimate answer to the deepest questions of existence, the answer to every question you ever could have about Life, the Universe and Everything? Joe, you must read Douglas Adams. This year.
And I’ve used Shamwows, they aren’t that great.
Sorry. Didn’t read post #8. But still, Douglas Adams. Read him. Now. Don’t Panic.
Oh, and Curtis. Post 42. Clever.
One of the defining characteristics of baseball is that it’s the only major sport that doesn’t have a clock. In baseball, time isn’t measured in minutes, it’s measured in outs. The winner is the team that scores the most runs before it makes 27 outs. So, there is a clock, it’s just a clock that’s measured in innings and outs instead of minutes and seconds. And unlike other sports, each team gets its own clock. It’s as if in basketball, each team had possession of the ball for 24 minutes and tried to score as many times as possible during that 24 minutes. If a player just stood there dribbling for a minute, he would be ridiculed for wasting time. Making an excessive number of outs is just as wasteful.
OBP isn’t just important because it measures how often a player gets on base. It’s important because it measures how often the player doesn’t make an out. Maybe it’s importance would be clearer if we called it “Didn’t Make An Out Percentage.” A plate appearance isn’t merely an opportunity to score runs, it’s an opportunity to keep the clock running in order to give the team more plate appearances.
I broke down and bought the shamwow in a Bed Bath and Beyond.
It works pretty well. We are actually using one for a bathmat. Its just a matter of time until I slip on it and break my skull open.
I *was* around for Dawson, Rice and their contemporaries, and I don’t believe that that time period universally saw him as a ‘future Hall of Famer’. My recollection, and this is strictly without visiting our friends at baseball-reference to pretend I remember exactly, was that he got out of the gate with a number of terrific seasons but then fell off to some extent, till the faux-MVP season. But it wasn’t that long after that that he was a part-time player.
If I’m inaccurate, you can put it down to the fact that I’m Even Older than Joe. Hey, remember when cable TV had 12 channels?
I question somewhat the primacy of OBP in Joe’s argument (at least as presented here) against Andre Dawson’s HOF candidacy.
It’s the combined fact that he didn’t get on base at an impressive clip OR slug at a truly high level that dooms Dawson’s chances.
In my view, even with his low OBP Dawson would be a worthy HOF candidate if he’d hit for more power. Despite the good HR #s, Dawson didn’t slug for a particularly high percentage over his career – just .482. If that was closer to a more elite level, say high .500s, you’d be looking at a guy with a career OPS of around .900, instead of a decent but still rather pedestrian .805.
You title the post “Trapped by the numbers”, then get trapped by themself.
Sure, Dawson had a low OBP. But it’s one stat. What about all the others? If you want to cherry pick on stats, take away Reggie Jacksons homeruns, and you have quite possibly the worst hitter in the history of the game.
Too many guys make the hall based on one number. Now you want to turn around and exclude other guys regardless of the total numbes they put up.
Not putting Dawson in becasue of his OPB means you can’t put Blyleven in because of his win total. It doesn’t match up, regardlss of his other stats.
@Curtis: I believe the band Level 42 was named for the answer to Life, the Universe and Everything, so in a backward sort of way, it was mentioned right in the blog post.
There was a time when walks weren’t a hitting stat and treated more like a pitching error. I still don’t understand that.
Dawson isn’t a HOF in my eyes. Good player, but no. I go with the first gut reaction. When I think Rickey Henderson there isn’t a moments hesitation. Dawson, Rice, Grace… not so much.
Yeah…I can’t decide, as between “but he was the most feared hitter of his time” and “people just didn’t understand the importance of OBP then,” which is more ridiculous. It’s like trying to decide whether zero is more than none.
Since at least about 1920 or so (and maybe earlier–Wee Willie, Sliding Billy…), every single player who has been widely considered a great hitter has been at least very good at getting on base. Some very good to great hitters have been overlooked because their on-base skills were overshadowed by low averages or park effects or whatever (I’m looking at you, Toy Cannon), but that doesn’t change anything. A good OBP was a necessary but not sufficient condition to being a great hitter, we’ll say. But even Mays, Aaron, Allen, Reggie, Stargell–maybe they didn’t all hit .330 or walk 100 times a year, and maybe OBP wasn’t their strongest suit, but they’re all much better at it than Dawson (or Rice).
Note the distinction between great hitters and great players–I don’t think most would call Clemente or Ripken or B.Robinson great *hitters*. And Dawson spent four years as a pretty good CF, which falls well short of the defensive contribution those guys made (he was just OK most of his years in RF). I guess some might consider Ernie Banks in the former category, but he was a shortstop during his great years, and has the 500 HR.
Ron, at #57, read Matt at #56.
Ron, that’s so wrong-headed it’s hard to know where to begin.
First, why are you taking away Reggie’s homeruns? I understand you’re trying to make a point about looking only at one stat, but we’re looking at a stat that actually exists, and you’re trying to take one very important one out of the equation. Very different.
Second, hyperbolize much? Take away Reggie’s HRs, which is ridiculous in the first place, and (assuming he still has as many hits and whatnot) he’s still got above average batting average, OBP, and maybe even SLG (he hit lots of doubles–and some of those HR we’re taking away would have to be doubles, right?). He’d be several thousand down the list of the worst hitters in the game.
Look, if Dawson had a terrible OBP but hit 60 HR a year or was the best defensive CF of all time or something, then you probably put him in anyway. It’s just that OBP is terribly important, and taking everything he did altogether, it just doesn’t add up, largely because of the OBP.
I agree, you can’t put Blyleven in based on his win totals (see Kaat, Jim). You put him in because he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball history. Likewise, you don’t keep Dawson out for his OBP, you keep him out because he wasn’t an especially great player.
If you beat OBP into us, while telling us how UNimportant BA is, then I think we are all safe to assume that OBP IS all about walks.
I don’t think unimportant is the right descriptor for BA. It’s more like, unhelpful or uninformative; it simply doesn’t tell us very much at all about what kind of player a guy is, or if he’s any good.
Turn on a ballgame in early September, and see the stat line of some guy at bat you’ve never heard of at the plate. You see BA: .281, HR 3, RBI 17. Now that guy could have either a 277/395/515 line or a 277/310/385 line. You have no idea if he has 3 HR because he just got called up or because he’s just a lousy slugger and has already had 400 AB. That .277 BA tells you nothing about the two most important things a player does at the plate: how often he gets on base, and what kind of power he hits with.
Happy first 43rd birthday, Joe. Last year’s HoF results were announced on your birthday. That’s a pretty nice present. As for this year’s present…are you tired of getting your hands trapped inside blankets? Are you too cool to wear a sweater? I’ve got the solution for you!
About the “in my day, players didn’t fool around with walks” argument, I don’t buy it. During Dawson’s career, baseball had Gene Tenace, Joe Morgan, Mike Schmidt, Rickey!, Wade Boggs, Dwight Evans, Will Clark and Jack Clark all starring while walking a lot. There were plenty of players then who understood the value of not making outs. I’m sure Ken Rosenthal is trying to do Dawson a favor by reminding people what a great player he was, but it comes across as implying that Dawson couldn’t figure out that outs are bad. Did he think that that Raines kid playing next to him was a loser for walking so much? Bah.* I’d rather give Dawson the benefit of the doubt that he understood the hitter’s job, and felt the best way to leverage his skills was to swing away.
*1890s slang never should have gone out of style. Twenty-three skidoo.
Rosenthal’s argument is ridiculous.
When I played my first season of “competitive” baseball, in third grade on my Cub Scout team, Andre Dawson hadn’t even been drafted yet.
So someone needs to explain to me how anyone could not understand the importance of on-base percentage when not only my coach, but the coaches on every other team, would exhort their players to have a good eye because — and I quote — “a walk’s as good as a hit!”
Everyone has always understood that getting on base is better than making an out. Everyone. Around the same time, I recall newspaper articles expressing the opinion that part of what made John Mayberry such a potent hitter was his ability to draw a walk… so even the crotchety old Murray Chass brigade is full of it. They always appreciated walks until unkempt geeks who live in their mother’s basements decided to carry the banner.
Aaron M., people go on about OBP and talk about the unimportance of BA not because hits are bad, but because only counting hits is bad. Anyone will tell you that in almost every situation, a hit is better than a walk. And then of course you’ve got OPS, OPS+, and every advanced metric, which value hits above walks. So the difference between one’s BA and OBP means nothing. If a player hits .360 for his career and never ever walks, well, .360 is still a pretty good OBP. The pertinent fact is that the combination of the two–Dawson’s ability to get hits and draw walks; in other words, to not make outs–doesn’t add up to anything like a Hall of Famer.
Dawson racked up a lot of SBs at a 74% success rate, just a little above break-even. So the value he added to his team with those 300+ steals is pretty marginal. Meanwhile, Raines not only totaled a high number of steals, but did it at one of the highest success percentages in history. That, plus other evidence that he was a brilliant baserunner, plus his OBP and everything else, make him a Hall of Famer.
Dawson is probably a better candidate than Jim Rice. But there are several other “borderline” candidates I’d put in before either.
One other thing: if you doubt the importance of OBP itself, carefully consider the idea of a team whose BA/OBP/SLG is .250/.500/.350, and how many games you think they’d win.
Here’s a hint: on average, they’d score every inning, despite a crappy BA and anemic SLG.
On the other hand, a team full of Andre Dawsons wouldn’t even average a BASERUNNER per inning.
You can’t get rid of 42.
It’s the answer to Life, the Universe and Everything.
Trying to figure out which is more troubling, that over 100 of your readers haven’t voted Rickey, or that almost 100 have voted Mo Vaughn…I kind of hope they’re the same hundred…
Adam #87– I identify “Twenty three skidoo” with the 1920s, not the 1890s. So does wikipedia.
Devon #4– the year where walks counted as hits in the major leagues was 1887. James (Tip) O’Neill of the St. Louis Browns (not the AL Browns, this was the American Association franchise that terminated when the Association went out of existence as a major league a few years later) batted .485 to lead the majors in BA. He would also have led with walks not counted, but the NL BA leader would have been different– Sam Thompson instead of Cap Anson.
I don’t think it’s totally crazy to count Grover Cleveland twice in this sense: Since GW, we have replaced the sitting president 43 times, making Obama, in a way, the 44th president. It’s not quite accurate, but is a way of accurately reflecting how many times we have changed presidents.
Who cares that OBP was undervalued? A stat is just a record of what a player does. A coach doesn’t tell a little kid “Now go up there to the plate and get a high OBP!” No, he tells them to be patient, only swings at strikes. He tells him that a walk is as good as a hit. And coaches have been saying that FOREVER.
People knew that getting on base was valuable 25 years ago, even if they didn’t pay any attention to the stat that measured it.
Happy Birthday Joe! All the best.
This has already been said, but the sabrematicians could have saved themselves a lot of headaches, by promoting NMOP (Not Making an Out Percentage) rather than OBP. Of course it is the same calculation, but there surely would be more understanding by the conservative statisticians if NMOP was used regularly rather than OBP. All the silliness about BA vs. OBP would have been avoided.
I can’t read this…the sidebar won’t collapse…bummer…
Why don’t we just change one of Grover Cleveland’s terms and give it to Grover Cleveland Alexander? That way we get less confused and who will notice except baseball historians and history historians?
I tend to believe that history changes over time anyway as the less biased historians take over after 50-100 years pass so here’s my first attempt to pull this one off. As an aside, I was a sub teacher a few years back and I could not believe that a US history book for middle school included a full page color photo of Maya Angelou commending her for her works in the 1970s-’90s; meanwhile the same book had only a small black & white photo of Prez Reagan with comments about this love for jellybeans in the WH. And we wonder about our educational system?
Per Bill at #71, I would call Obama’s the 44th presidential administration, while calling him the 43rd president.
Of course, I want to keep W as far away from 42 as possible, that his foulness not besmirch everything Adams, Jackie, and Rivera have accomplished to put 42 at the pinnacle of positive integers.
I wonder how much Dawson’s candidacy is aided in my mind and so many of that era who got to see Dawson play everyday on WGN back when there were only 12 channels. I was a Royals fan dislocated at 14 to Texas, and I would come home from school and watch the end of the Cubs game over and over. I, for one, think more of Dawson, Grace, and Sandburg than their numbers probably deserve because of their exposure and influence on my youth.
The only problem I have with NMOP is that I immediately said it to the tune of MMMMMM Bop, which is a disqualifying feature. OBP it must remain.
Thank you Jeff M – the slapchop is glorious.
the best part – 0:57
Vince – “you’re gonna love my nuts”
I see where Curtis was #42 to post a comment. Where are we when this happens on Joe’s own blog?
Oh, Happy Birthday, Joe. How is it that you are so lucky to share this day with Elvis?
happy birthday, joe. if it is any consolation, you are starting your 43rd year.
Okay, let’s pretend that OBP was a well-known stat in Dawson’s day. Perhaps Dawson’s OBP would have been higher had he been thinking about it — but then so would everyone else’s. He’d still likely be below average with respect to his contemporaries.
This argument is not original with me, but I don’t remember where I heard it — perhaps FJM or an earlier Joe post.
I have no strong feelings on whether Dawson is a HOFer; he is, as previous posters have said, borderline. I just don’t buy this particular argument.
“On-base percentage is not some convoluted modern statistic.”
No, it’s been convoluted for decades. Why is it that on-base and slugging were determined to be “percentages” while batting was “average” and in fact all of them are averages. A .400 on-base average will get you into the Hall of Fame pretty easily while a .400 on-base percentage will get you released in spring training.
Speaking of cheesy advertisements:
How about those “genuine Amish mantles” with “built-in miracle heaters” which are being hawked in the newspaper magazine sections these days? The ads are so kitschy I can’t stop myself from reading them.
Michael Rawdon: I commented on the Amish mantles yesterday and no one else chimed in…??? I too wonder about their efficiency. I grew up near Amish country and most Amish were as truthful and upstanding as any people in the area.
I think Adam from Oakland hits the nail on the head. OBP may not have been stressed as much in Dawson’s era, but that didn’t mean good players didn’t get on base a lot. Dawson was never among this group (It bears mentioning that David Eckstein has a higher career OBP than Dawson). In fact, he only lead *his own team* in OBP once (1980), a year where his .358 mark doesn’t even compare to George Brett’s major league leading .454 mark. Therefore, I think if Dawson were to be HOF worthy, his power numbers would have to make up for his lack of ability at getting on base. If you look at his OPS+ (a good way of comparing him to other players of his era), you see a player who was very good for a very long time, but, again, was not consistently among the league leaders. (If Dawson’s power numbers were better than his contemporaries, this would be reflected in his OPS+. It isn’t.) Again, I am not denying Dawson’s talent, and were he a second baseman he should absolutely be in the hall. The numbers he put up as an outfielder (a position you expect production from) are just not hall worthy.
Also, if Mark Grace is Hall worthy, doesn’t that make John Olerud a candidate for induction as well? Both of them are tough calls, but they were both first baseman and put up very similar stats:
Grace: career .303/.383/.442/119 OPS+/2445 hits/173 HR/1146 RBI
Olerud: career .295/.398/.465/128 OPS+/2239 hits/225 HR/1230 RBI
I don’t know what it is but I just don’t feel confident buy a product with the word ’sham’ right there in the title.
So if we’re retiring 42, do we now reference it as Jackie Robinson?
e.g. Q. What’s 21 + 21? A. Jackie Robinson
Or I suppose we could get clever and just use the concept of integration.
i.e. Bill Clinton was the first black president…
Best birthday wishes.
If 1/7 is your birthday, feel lucky that you share this date with the one, the only Al Bowlly. The greatest singer of his or any other era.
Fraid he didn’t hit much though…..fooled by the curve his whole career.
The sham wow commercial is practically a documentary from the Minnesota State Fair. Someone in one of these posts mentioned buying them at the Texas State Fair. Every other attendee leaves the MN State Fair with a role of Sham Wows. And the guy hawking them has on the headseat and talks to the back of the crowd that gathers to watch him soak soda up out of the carpet laying on the counter. I always thought the commercial was supposed to remind people of salesmen hawking their wares on a street corner.
I wanted to buy them one year but didn’t have the $21.00 (including tax). So I went back the next year and got my tube of shammy like orangeness. Yes, I am that person. They work great. The thing is, how often does anyone need to soak up that much liquid? I was glad I had them when I installed shut off valves on the bathroom sink last weekend, but the bucket worked better.
I don’t see why we’re even having this discussion. Everyone knows that 24 is the highest number.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkP_OGDCLY0
Awesome. Someone else watches Mr.Show.
Mark Grace did his best to adher to the Retire 42, statistically anyway. He was ahead of the game. Struck out 42 times in ‘89, and that was the end of 42 for Mr. 90’s Hits leader. 43 R in ‘02, 41 2B in ‘00, 45 3B in his career, various K totals on the season at 41, 44, 45!
Decade stats don’t tell us very little because Jack Morris also led the 1980s in runs allowed, wild pitches and base runners allowed. Decade stats tell us very little because they’re arbitrary. Why is it any more important to lead MLB in hits in the ten years from 1990 to 1999 than in the ten years from 1979 to 1988?
(Answer: It’s not.)
Similarly, all those decade guys other than Grace and Rose aren’t in the Hall of Fame because they led a decade in hits. They’re in the Hall of Fame because they were exceptionally good baseball players who did lots of other things well. Grace is, by all accounts, a great guy, and he’s a decent broadcaster, but he didn’t do a whole ton with the bat other than hit for a high average and have his prime coincide precisely with years numbered 199x.
Back to the ShamWow and Vince Offer…. Has anyone else read Vince Offer’s wikipedia page? I encourage you all to check it out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vince_Offer
Now that, my friends, is good stuff. He made that awful Underground Comedy Movie you might remember from late night advertisements.
From Wikipedia: “Lawrence Van Gelder of the New York Times described the movie as “a series of sketches built around subjects like masturbation, defecation, alienation, urination, necrophilia, voyeurism, casual brutality and mockery of the unfortunate.” He added that Offer “makes the common mistake of equating the recognition of comic potential for comedy itself. For the successful, talent bridges the gap, but here it is absent.”
And yes, the SlapChop commercial I think is even better than the ShamWow. I saw it on TV for the first time the other day and was enraptured by it.
Vince Offer is truly a Renaissance man.
@ Brent (#74):
But if you went with NMOP instead of OBP, then you’d have the Murray Chasses of the world making fun of NMOP with lame jokes about Hanson (or, quite possibly, jokes about the Beatles’ hairdos when they first gained popularity — “NMOPheads” for example) instead of the hilarious “VORPies” jokes we’re subjected to now.
The lesson is, as best put by Garth in “Wayne’s World”:
“Change? We fear change.”
Connecticut Mike: I am not only aware of the Underground Comedy Movie, I worked on it. It was an unpleasant experience, to say the least.
Here is my problem with NOT voting for Andre “The Hawk” Dawson. His glove and power more than make up for his lack of .obp. It’s like saying you would leave Ozzie Smith out for his lack of power. A lot of Hall of Famers were lacking in some area of their game. I remember as I kid it was always a fight in 3&2 baseball on my team as to who would were number 8. Intangibles alone should get him in, he was a leader, and an electrifying player. Please try and name someone else who shared a Poster with Walter Payton and Michael Jordan. Do the right thing Joe and implore others to do the same, Vote The Hawk into the hall.
The passion and nostalgia got the better of me on that one I mean as a kid…and who would wear. Sorry, I hate typos even my own.
(Sorry to double-post, but I figured it would make more sense to leave a comment on the most current entry)
Hey Joe, I know you like to talk about milestone numbers (3,000 hits, 300 Wins, etc.) and how they help (or used to help) players gain “automatic†entry into the Hall. What do you think about a player going 40/40? Obviously, it’s a very rare accomplishment and it takes a special (or ‘roided up) player to do it, so do you think that would push a borderline player over the top? It’s still relatively early in his career, but I don’t think many people would consider Alfonso Soriano (and his .329 career OBP) a HOFer, so it probably wouldn’t help a guy like him (although if he had hit one more HR in ‘02 and was the only two-time 40/40 guy, that might make the discussion more interesting). But, if Vlad Guerrero had hit one more HR in 2002, would he be a slam-dunk choice instead of being a potentially borderline candidate (depending on how he finishes his career, of course)? Just wondering your thoughts on the 40/40 club and what it means to be a member of it. Thanks.
I know that when we bought my mother in law a coffee maker for Christmas 2007 its Teutonic origin was a major plus for her. When I went on to explain that the manufacturer in question had in fact made artillery for the Nazis, well, how could she fail to be impressed by the implied reliability of a direct descendant of the technology behind Blitzkreig?
Yeah I was really on time with my comment on the earlier post. Sigh.
Still, shamWOW commercial >>>>> Snuggie commercial.
The one thing that I’ve actually been thinking about buying is that Vacuu-Suck thing that will vacuumize all your freezer foods. Because that actually works.
How the hell does 4% of you NOT vote for Rickey Henderson? Seriously, you need to identify yourselves RIGHT NOW and explain your reasoning. The only thing I can think of right now is that you’re stuck under your blanket and were unable to click the little box next to Rickey’s name.
See, if only you had a Snuggie.
@Kevin (comment #1):
What is this ‘bagger’ you speak of?
>>>“people just didn’t understand the importance of OBP then,â€
No, Ken Rosenthal didn’t then and from that article I suspect now as well.
I wonder how many extra ABs Grace got in the ’90s because the Cubs batted so often in the bottom of the ninth.
Even in Little League, we knew that OBP was the epitome of offensive effectiveness. I played on a super-dominant team and like all Little League teams, we had a couple of guys who would usually play only in right field.
Our league had a rule that all players had to play at least an inning. Besides this, our manager wanted everyone involved. Our strategy was simple. The little guys, not ready for primetime, led off in the first inning and hit second in the first inning. They usually got a couple of innings in the field because they would only be pulled for a pinch hitter. We gave up none of our run scoring prowess as these guys walked about 75% of the time due to a small strike zone. In fact, a vast majority of the time, they scored within about 2 minutes of getting up to bat.
One of the defining characteristics of baseball is that it’s the only major sport that doesn’t have a clock.
To cannibalize a Bill James quote: Up until the 1950’s or so, baseball did have a clock. It was called the sun.
I didn’t put Dawson on my sidebar ballot, and it won’t bother me if he stays out of the Hall — in the year of the rabbit ball, after Dawson moved into Wrigley Field, he hit 49 homers, but his next-highest career total is 32. The guy is simply not as good a hitter, in terms of average or power, as people seem to want to remember.
One oddity, though: in checking baseball-reference.com for Dawson’s numbers, I noted that he played for Florida A&M, and so I nearly wrote that Dawson was probably the greatest major-leaguer ever to come out of Florida A&M. Then I looked at the list of Florida A&M players:
- Andre Dawson
- Vince Coleman
- Marquis Grisson
- Hal McRae
Dawson may still be the best of that group, but it’s a surprisingly strong group.
dawson did manage to lead the league twice in total bases, and finished in the top 3 five times, for whatever that’s worth.
i wouldn’t vote for him though. i always liked shawon dunston better
The last time I bought shampoo I was really glad they fooled me.
There’s only one reason Dawson made it onto that poster with Sweetness and His Airness – he played in Chicago. Maybe Ryno would have been a better choice for that poster? Or heck, how about Jeremy Roenick or Eddie Belfour?
Happy belated birthday!
ESPN.com just posted the Hall of Fame ballots of their writers. One writer voted for Jay Bell…but not Bert Blyleven. ><
[...] Posnanski: ShamPow. You’ve gotta skip down close to the bottom of the post for the funny stuff. And this is just [...]
new layout is blah….lol.
On a side note, WILLIE BLOOMQUIST?!?!?
$3 Million? 2 YEARS???
Joe, do us a favor. Tell Dayton to wake up. Having a .377 OBP for 1 year does not make a player “an OBP guy”. I don’t understand where these freaking GM’s get into their head that a guy who has been at replacement level for 6 years and has less than 10 extra base hits in the last 3 years combined is a “guy who can compete for the 2B job”. Please help us Joe. PLEASE!!
In case anybody is curious, the library I worked in received this month’s Popular Mechanics today. It has a big article testing a bunch of “As Seen On TV” products.
I won’t spoil the entire article for those who may want to read it, but I was surprised how many they actually listed as worth it. And yes, included in those is one specific product that has been discussed a lot recently.
Olympic *drivers*?
What will you do when Willie Bloomquist starts 125 games at second base for the Royals?
Bob,
So wikipedia associates twenty-three skidoo with the 1920’s? Give me ten minutes and I will make wikipedia associate twenty-three skidoo with Grandma porn. Old reliable wikipedia.
By the way, ShamWow isn’t the only thing made in Germany. (grandma porn)
I bought one of these Shamwows last summer, and its amazing. In August I took my daughter to the beach and she complained when high tide rolled in and threatened to get us wet. So I threw the Shamwow into the ocean and BAM, problem solved. Thank you Shamwow!
Gate #37 – This is why I absolutely despise announcers who refer to a current player as “future Hall of Famer”. No one really knows. I guarantee you, every announcer in 1985 was referring to Pete Rose (09/09/09) as “future Hall of Famer Pete Rose”.
“And that brings future Hall of Famer Mark McGwire to the plate.” Uh-huh.
Here’s an unbelievable non sequitur for all George Brett fans…
http://www.sportsjungle.com/view.php?i=742
Oh in regard to the above link, not for little kids that’s for sure. And the best line is the very last.
Terrence,
If Willie Bloomquist starts 125 games at 2B I’ll become a Cardinals fan like the rest of Missouri has.
Seriously though, I’ve already relinquished my season tickets, in what way can I further protest the stupidity?
As an aside, I don’t hate Bloomquist as a player, essentially, he’ll be a great replacement for Tony Pena, Jr. The problem being GM DM was quoted like he was coming in to dethrone a 400K stud at 2B. Callaspo is a great player, and cheap at that. The exact player the Royals NEED is the player they are very willing to cover up with Ross Gload, Tony Pena Jr, etc.
Ypu guys are completly misreading Vince and the Shamwow commercial. He’s not a new type of commercial pitchman but a very traditional one, namely the carnival barker.
If you ever go to a county fair, they always have some guy in a booth, with a headset on, drumming up business and demonstrating the product in some ridiculous manner at the same time.”LOOK AT ME, FOLKS. I’M CUTTING THROUGH A NAIL WITH A GINSU STEAK KNIFE!!”
They probably pulled him right off the midway and showed him where to stand in the studio.
Incidentally, my favorite line is “if you call right now, because we can’t do this all day…” When I have cable news on a loop, and Vince and Shamwow come on every 15 minutes, that line really cracks me up.
Willie who? Hey Joe, hilarious last couple of posts, (and Andre shouldn’t be in, he was a very good player, but not HOF material) but lets get some new stuff on the Royals latest moves. Rob Nen’s blog nailed it first, what is going on with Dayton?
So long as we are skipping #42, can’t we just say that Bill Clinton was the 41st president, Barack Obama was the 43rd president, and pretend that nothing bad happened in the middle?
If there’s any truth to the rumor that Clark Hunt offered the GM job to Pioli, but stipulated that Herm be given one more year, then Clark Hunt is an idiot. If you’re hiring a new GM to take over a franchise in complete disarray coming off a 2-14 season, you let the GM hire a new coach. End of story.
If Hunt loses Pioli because of some b.s. reason, he’s going to lose a good chunk of season ticket subscribers and a majority of Chiefs fans that still give a damn.
Joe, Joe. Retiring 42 would take you directly to 43. Is that what you want? And it actually sounds kinda young to me!
Rosenthal’s argument is fairly ridiculous. He claims people didn’t value OBP in the ’80s — and yet they did. They just tended not to use the term OBP. For example, the following two sentences mean the exact same thing:
“He led the league in OBP.”
“He led the league in not making outs.”
Not making outs has always been considered worthwhile. Avoiding outs leads to wins. Wins have also been considered worthwhile for quite some time. Rosenthal is just flat-out wrong.
I dunno, if I recall “Moneyball” correctly, the A’s emphasized walks in the minor league system. If you didn’t walk enough as a batter, you didn’t advance (barring exceptional other stats) and if you walked too many as a pitcher, you didn’t advance. A couple of years later, players had all gotten the message; batters walked more, pitchers walked less.
I did watch baseball when Rice, Dawson, and Murphy were playing. I always ranked them Murphy, Dawson, Rice. I know that Dawson was no Gary Pettis (insert your favorite defensive outfielder here), but he was still a major asset, with good range and one of the best arms of all time. His range factors and fielding percentage were above league average in both right and center field. And Dawson was hundreds of homers ahead of the pure glove wizards. I’m not using Dawson’s defense to make the case that he deserves to be in the HOF. I’m using all the gold gloves as tie breakers on a marginal candidate. Similarly, his stolen bases don’t qualify him as a base stealer, but they are tie breakers for his record as a slugger. But how marginal is Dawson? Thus, you have this post, and I have an hour less of my time.
Jim Rice is in the HOF now. He was a defensive liability who played one of the two least important defensive positions instead of being a defensive asset at more important positions. Rice was a slow base stealer instead of an asset on the base paths. Was Rice really that much of a better hitter (especially considering his home/away splits) than Dawson, enough to overcome those tie breakers? Dawson had more hits, doubles, triples, homers, RBI, was a 74% base stealer (good) with hundreds more steals than Rice’s 63% rate (bad). Dawson also had eight gold gloves and a great arm. And by all accounts Dawson did more to further the game of baseball. So the question in my mind is: why is Rice in the HOF when Dawson isn’t? And most of those arguments also apply to Dale Murphy over Jim Rice; more homers, five gold gloves in center field, more steals at a better rate, a true asset to the game, as well as two MVPs and a stretch of six straight years getting MVP consideration. Rice never managed more than three years in a row (twice).
And that’s why the Rice vote was a mistake. There are comparable players to him, contemporaries, maybe who didn’t hit as well as he did (or maybe didn’t have the advantage of playing half his games in Fenway and didn’t have Wade Boggs leading off for him) but who were clearly far better defensively, on the bases, and as ambassadors for the game. And since we now live in an era where good stats are available, we can also say that Andre Dawson’s OPS was 11 points better at home than on the road; Dale Murphy was helped an enormous 103 points of OPS by playing half his games in the launching pad; Jim Rice was helped a staggering 131 points by the short porch and the Green Monster. More than that: Rice’s BABIP was .340 in Fenway, helped no doubt by the Monster; on the road it was an ordinary .296. Does that really seem like a great basher of baseballs, or just a guy tailored for Fenway?
It’s worth looking at even more. Dawson spent two years in Boston in the decline phase of his career, the only times he played in Fenway. His OPS those two seasons was .738. His OPS in Fenway was .813. So it seems like Dawson benefited from Fenway about as much as Rice did, and had a much better OPS than Rice on the road. Does anybody have any doubt that if Dawson had been in Fenway for the meat of his career that he’d be in the HOF now? Then flip that around: if Rice were playing in Montreal during his career, would he have gotten any HOF votes at all? And that’s not considering the damage the artificial turf in Montreal did to Dawson’s knees that he’d not have suffered on the grass in Fenway.
So I say, vote in Andre Dawson. On neutral (road) fields he was far and away the best player of those three, he has the most counting stats (except for walks), he has the most defensive value, he has the most steals, he has the most unique skill set, and he was helped hardly at all by him home parks. Dawson should be the guy going to Cooperstown, not Rice, and Joe, I hope you vote for him next year.
Finally, and this would be an interesting project for one of you guys who has superior access to automated statistics (I’m just a poorly paid college professor these days, and can’t afford to pay for better stat access) it would be interesting to see if opposing left fielders outhit Jim Rice in Fenway during Rice’s career. Based on Rice’s home/away splits, I suspect that he truly is just a phenomenon of Fenway Park. It’s too late to consider for voting Rice in (or out) but before we get guys like Larry Walker and Todd Helton coming up for HOF consideration, it would be *really* nice to establish that yes, some ballparks *are* just that much better for hitters (and pitchers) than others. I know it cost Mike Piazza at least one MVP. I mean, over his career Piazza’s OPS was EIGHTY frigging points higher on the road. If only he’d gotten to play in Coors or Fenway.
Happy belated birthday, Mr. Posnanski! I read your articles in Sports Illustrated, the Kansas City Star, and this blog. Really enjoy your ramblings. I wholly support this idea to honor Mr. Robinson particularly with the celebration of Dr. King’s birthday, the impending two hundredth birthday of Abraham Lincoln, and especially today’s events. I would argue there would never have been a President Obama if not for the cataclysmic, violent courage and fierce dignity of Mr. Robinson. I also strongly suggest the immediate retirement of 37 throughout the NFL to honor the foreshortened career and ultimate selflessness of the Kansas City Chief’s Joe Delaney. Last summer was the twenty-fifth anniversary of his heroic sacrifice and last fall would have been his fiftieth birthday. Finally, I propose in honor of the Cardinal’s Super Bowl run the retirement through the league of 40 for the late, great Pat Tillman Jr. These two heroes deserve the ultimate respect. I will email you soon about this idea and another. Until then, take care and good luck with your new book.
the only thing better than the ShamWow is the Shamwow song
[...] Trapped by numbers Joe Posnanski Posted by root 6 hours ago (http://joeposnanski.com) I don t mean we just retire the uniform number 42 in baseball just wanted to see if this would accept my comment seeing as it number well you know said it to the tune of mmmmmm bop which is a disqualifying feature email subject message send cancel powered Discuss | Bury | News | Trapped by numbers Joe Posnanski [...]