Walking in a Winter Meetingland
Posted: December 11th, 2008 | Filed under: Baseball | 123 Comments »
The most fascinating feature of the Las Vegas Airport, without a doubt, is the slot machines. I simply cannot imagine why that work as a business model. It seems to me that if you are a slots player coming into Vegas, you would want to get to your Casino slots as soon as possible and you would not want to spend your time at the airport playing slots. And if seems that if you are slots player coming OUT of Vegas, you would be broke and sick of the ringing bells and just plain exhausted by it all.
Apparently not, though, because every time I am here I see people playing the airport slots. I guess the allure is too great. I can see the mind working. Hey, maybe airport slots are looser than regular slots! Maybe I can still get my big score! Maybe I can make up for all my losses with one lucky spin of “Wheel of Fortune!†In the end, I don’t know. I suspect that the less time you spend thinking about how Vegas really works, the better off you will be. Don’t even get me started on the whole cocktail waitress phenomenon.
ANYWAY, I’ve spent most of my time the last few days working on a big Sports Illustrated magazine piece about the baseball meeting and Las Vegas, so I haven’t really had much time to write (or think) about some of the news of the week. Here are a few quick thoughts.*
*As usual, it turned out to be not-so-quick.
* * *
Joe Gordon went into the Hall of Fame. I was very happy for Gordon. He was a great player, I think, who had two prime years taken away by World War II (and he had by far his worst season in ‘46, the year he came back). I think like many baseball fans, I am especially devoted to those players who lost parts of their prime to war. There are so many “what ifs†in sports because of injuries and ballpark effects and the color barrier and various individual and group decisions that affect players career. But I do think there’s a special category for those who went to war.
Here is a small list of players who were in their prime and already had good seasons before going off to World War II:
Sam Chapman (OPS+ of 143 in 1941)
– He hit .322 with 25 homers and 106 RBIs for the Athletics in ‘41, and then he missed all of ‘42, ‘43 and ‘44 and most of 1945 — almost four full years. He was a useful player after he returned, and actually drove in 100 RBIs again in ‘49. But he was never again as good as in ‘41.
Joe DiMaggio (OPS+ of 184 and 147 in 1941 and ‘42)
– Joe D. missed three full seasons because of the war. And he was a right-handed hitter at Yankee Stadium, which was a dead zone for righty power bats. As great as everyone thinks he was, the Great DiMag was probably greater.
Elbie Fletcher (OPS+ of 147, 135. 126 from 1941-43)
– He was a good player who walked a lot and scored a lot of runs for the Pirates before going off to war after the ‘43 season. He missed two full seasons and only played as an every day player for one full season after returning home.
Les Fleming (OPS+ of 144 in 1942).
– He walked 106 times in ‘42 and also hit 14 homers for Cleveland with 82 RBIs. There’s no telling if that was just an outlier season, but he missed all of ‘43 and ‘44, most of ‘45 and was never again a full-time player.
Joe Gordon (OPS+ of 117, 155, 126 from 1941-43)
Wally Judnich (OPS+ of 117 and 155 in 1941 and ‘42)
– He was a star for the Browns in ‘42, hitting .313/.413/.499. He even received a little MVP consideration. He missed three full seasons after that, and he was only an OK player for a couple of years when he returned. Then he faded away, mostly forgotten.
Charlie Keller (OPS+ of 162, 163, 168 from 1941-43)
– He was a truly great player going to his time at war. Then he missed all of ‘44 and most of ‘45. He had one more great year left in ‘46 (.275/.405/.533 with 10 triples, 30 homers and 113 walks) and then because of a balky back and other factors he never got 250 at-bats again in a season for the rest of his career. Maybe his career would have turned out similarly no matter what, but I think Keller has one of the great what-if careers in baseball history.
Johnny Mize (OPS+ of 156 and 161 in 1941 and ‘42)
– He’s a bit older than the others on this list — he turned 30 before the ‘43 season. But he was clearly not on his way down. He missed three full seasons, played only 101 games in ‘46, but he hit 51 homers in ‘47 and 40 more in ‘48.
Pete Reiser (OPS+ of 143 and 122 in 1941 and ‘42)
– Baseball’s greatest What If — well, right up there with Herb Score — he had his first major crash into the wall in ‘42 and was badly hurt. Most people already know that. But fewer know that beginning in ‘43 he missed three years because of the war.
Cecil Travis (OPS+ of 150 in 1941)
– He hit .359 with 19 triples in ‘41 — he was 27 that year — he went to war for three full seasons, and was never a full-time player again.
Enos Slaughter (OPS+ of 141 and 156 in 1941 and ‘42)
– He was second in the MVP balloting in 1942 and then he missed the next three full seasons. Slaughter is a controversial figure because of his racial views — just the other day I got an email from someone whose father had some very troubling stories about Slaughter — but there’s no question that he was a great player. And he missed three prime years.*
*I never can mention Slaughter without mentioning what Buck O’Neil said about him. Buck was pretty instrumental in getting Slaughter into the Hall of Fame when he was part of the Veteran’s Committee, and more than a few people wondered how he could be such an outspoken supporter of Slaughter, who was known by many as a pretty virulent racist in his playing days. Buck was led to believe that Slaughter was simply a man of his time and place and that he had grown out of many of his views. But more, he believed Country Slaughter could play ball, an in the end that’s all he could judge.
“People said to me, ‘Naw, naw, you can’t vote for Enos Slaughter, he was prejudiced.’ … I said, ‘What’s that’s got do with anything’ If we think like that, we won’t let anyone in the Hall of Fame. Look around: The Hall of Fame is filled with racists and drunks and all kinds of people. The world is filled with all kinds of people. You can’t know what’s happening in a man’s heart. Could he play our couldn’t he play? That’s what matters.’ â€
That’s one of my favorite quotes in The Soul of Baseball, because it’s a little bit raw, and it isn’t politically correct, and in many ways it gets to the heart of Buck. He wasn’t interested in judging people. He was interested in SCOUTING people. And there’s a difference. And yes, all of that was a cheap way to get a Christmas plug in for my book. I mean, seriously, it’s only $5,99 on Amazon now. And I think I made this offer before, but let’s make it again: If you buy the book at Amazon or Barnes & Noble or wherever, I’ll make you my Facebook friend, no strings attached. And really, let’s be honest, what could be better than being my Facebook friend?
Ted Williams (OPS+ of 235 and 217 in 141 and ‘42).
– Obviously the Splendid Splinter is the most celebrated of the baseball war heroes, in part because he would later lose more time while serving in Korea. It’s always fun to predict what Williams’ numbers might have looked like. It doesn’t take a whole lot of creativity to come up with a scenario in which Williams would have hits more than 714 homers in his career.
* * *
Speaking of Splendid Splinters, I’m sure you noticed that there are now new standards for the bats that Major Leaguers use. You need to be some kind of Wood Engineer to understand it all, but the basic point seems to be that the strongest bats have the wood cut EXACTLY parallel to the grain direction of the tree. I’m not much with artwork, but I guess that means the strongest bats would have grain line look like this:
________________________________________________________________
Well, what has happened — and I KNOW I could be getting this wrong — is that there were no slope standards for the cut of wood on bats. So that means that bats would have something like a 1 in 5 inch SoG (Slope of Grain), which means that for every five inches the grain line would deviate one inch off of parallel. Apparently, that’s really, really bad. And the theory seems to be that’s the reason that so many bats were shattering with shards of wood flying everywhere.
So the new standard is now 1-in-20 SoG; the grain line cannot deviate more than an inch over 20 inches. I have absolutely no idea what I’m talking about here, and I have no idea if this will make any difference at all. But, hey, we just report the news as we understand it.
* * *
Through some kind of beautiful fate, I went to a lunch and sat next to Twins manager Ron Gardenhire, the guy I think is the best manager in baseball. It was great. He told some good stories. He was as down to earth and modest as you would expect. I love Gardy.
Now, I have admitted here before, and I will admit again, that if I had a closer view, if I watched Gardy manage every game, if I watched the way he handled the bullpen every day, if I watched every one of Nick Punto’s hundreds of at-bats, I might feel differently about the guy and his managing skill. Gardy does not necessarily see baseball exactly the way I do. He’s not a big numbers guy, I think he has a much deeper love for the gamer than I do. He puts a much greater emphasis on some of the intangible things that I think are generally overplayed and overwrought
But I’m not sure any of that matters in the end. There are a lot of ways to win baseball games. And I love watching his teams play, love the way his pitchers throw strikes, love the way his outfielders go get the ball, love the way they execute. More than anything though, I just like the guy, and I think his players generally like, and I believe that matters. I know from my own experience that I have liked my sports editors for more than 20 years now, and because of that I wanted to work hard for them.
* * *
I have a question that I posed to a few people at the Winter Meetings: Do Detroit Lions fans want their team to go 0-16? I think this is a deep question, one that might take a full blog post or essay or something. But I try to put myself in a Lions fan shoes, and my first reaction is that, yes, absolutely, I would want 0-16. I mean, that’s a bit of history. If the Lions go 1-15, they’re just down there with a handful of nondescript and incredibly bad football teams — there wouldn’t be anything SPECIAL about them. If you are going to be bad, be historically bad, that’s what I always say.
But, then I started to think of my own childhood, when I was a young Cleveland Browns fan, and how every football loss took away a little piece of my soul. Oh man, those weeks at school after Browns losses were TERRIBLE. I had that awful feeling in the pit of my stomach for just about the whole week — you know that feeling, when something bad happened, and you just had that sick feeling. You might not even remember precisely what happened was but you still feel it in your belly. I know there are young Lions fans out there who are like that, and I could not wish 16 losses on any of them.
But then I started to think about how much pain the Lions have put those fans through the last few years — I mean, it has been ptiful. It wasn’t just that the Lions were terrible; no, they have snubbed their nose at the fans by refusing to fire their GM, by continuing to hire goofy head coaches, by doing all sorts of nonsensical things in the draft. And as a fan, maybe you want 0-16 so that ownership will REALLY panic and start doing the George Castanza opposite thing. I mean, sure, 1-15 might lead to a new direction, but 0-16 DEFINITELY leads to a new direction, that’s like a punch in the face and everyone would have to stare in the mirror and say, “Um, OK, we literally could not have been worse. I guess every single thing we have done the last few years has been wrong. So let’s completely change course.†That would be good for the Lions.
But then I started to think about those players, the coaches, all the people who invested their hearts into this team. Do they deserve 0-16? Does anyone? Detroit is going through rough times. Isn’t this too cruel?
So, basically, I don’t know the answer to the question, and neither did anyone I talked to at the Winter Meetings. I’ll have to get Michael Rosenberg on this.
* * *
I know I’ve mentioned this before, but: I do not understand craps. I am reminded of this again every time I go to Las Vegas. I have a very basic grasp of the rules, but then I will stand around a craps table and watch the action and it’s like watching a foreign film with no subtitles. I feel basically the same way watching cricket.
* * *
Against my better judgment, I watched the movie Hancock the other day, and as usually happens when I have zero expectations for a movie, I liked it. I mean, sure, it was stupid and pretty pointless and the plot was not particularly believable*.
*By “believable,†I of course do not mean “believable†— obviously a movie where Will Smith plays a guy who can fly and deflect bullets and shave with his fingernails is not believable. No, I mean that even suspending belief and accepting all of the fantasy, the movie still did not follow along in a particularly believable way. I think there should be a special word for this kind of believable — movieable, maybe. I’ll work on it. But this line of thought does remind me of one of my favorite bits ever by Garry Shandling. He took a date to see “E.T.†And when the kids on the bicycle take off, his date goes “Yeah, right.†And Shandling says, “I don’t think it is a documentary.â€
But I have realized that if I have low enough expectations for a movie, I can like almost anything. I had heard pretty awful things about Hancock, and I wasn’t particularly intrigued by the idea, so I came in expecting zero stars. I expected to hate the whole experience. And it wasn’t a zero star movie experience, it was like a two-star movie experience. Will Smith, as usual, is likeable and fun in his own way. I like Charlize Theron. There are a couple of reasonably entertaining scenes.
I mean, no, it wasn’t good. But it scores very well in my movie expectations formula:
I expected a 0 stars movie experience
I got a 2 star movie experience.
So, the movie was a +2.
A plus-2 is really good. I will point out that I’m talking about “movie experience†here. I’m not talking about the quality of movie. Some really good movies don’t make for good movie experiences — and you wouldn’t expect them too because they’re depressing as hell or really weird or disturbing in uncomfortable ways. And some bad movies make for great movie experiences because they’re goofy or stupid or enjoyable for one of the performances. No, Hancock wasn’t a good movie, but for me it was a pretty good movie experience.
Now, when I saw Leatherheads on a plane it was the opposite. I expected a two and a half star movie experience. I figured it would be amusing, it’s about old-time football, it has Clooney and Jim from the office, it was co-written by Rick Reilly, a longtime hero of mine. And I even have some fading feelings for Renee Zellweger. I figured it would be worth a few laughs. I didn’t think it would be great by any means, but I figured it would be OK
I expected a 2 1/2 star movie.
I got a 1 star movie.
So the movie a -1.5.
And that’s terribly disappointing. Of course, I have no one to blame but myself for my high Leatherheads expectation level*.
*I don’t want to get too deep into this, but the movie expectation formula is why, in many ways, Hook is the worst movie experience I have ever had. Hook is not the worst movie I have ever seen of course — I mean I did see Batman and Robin, just as a starting point. And North. And The Story of Us. And The Money Pit. But I really thought Hook would be good. It had Robin Williams before I realized that the Freaky Awakenings Transformation had occurred**, and it had Julia Roberts who I used to love, and it had Dustin Hoffman as Hook which seemed pretty inspired casting to me. It was directed by Steven Spielberg. It seemed like one of those corny Christmas-time movies and I’m a major sucker for those — I can’t help myself, I loved The Family Man, for instance, it’s one of the my favorite ever movie experience (Expectation level, 1 star — Actual level, 4 stars — the rare +3 movie).
So, I pretty much expected a 4 star movie experience from Hook.
And I got a 0.0 star movie experience. Hook sucked.
That’s a minus-4, the worst possible movie experience.
**My Freaky Awakenings Transformation theory, which I have mentioned here before, is that during the filming of Awakenings, Robin Williams and Robert DeNiro had their personalities switched. So from that point on Robin Williams no longer wanted to be funny and wanted to play serious and quirky roles while DeNiro decided he desperately wanted to play in oddball comedies. The switch has worked about as well as the Fred Savage-Judge Reinhold switcheroo in “Vice Versa.â€
* * *
People are wondering if the Yankees can REALLY buy a whole new starting pitching staff in one off-season. Answer: Sure, why not? They already have Sabathia, who I suspect will be dominant (though it is worth pointing out that he is 1-4 with an 8.61 ERA at Yankee Stadium. True, that was all against the YANKEES, but hey, 1-4 with an 8.61 ERA speaks for itself). They will probably sign A.J. Burnett. I’m not a particularly big Burnett fan but we all know he has dominant stuff — and if they get him he will probably the best strikeout starter the Yankees have had since David Cone more than a decade ago. In fact, I would say he’d have an even shot at breaking the Yankees strikeout record which is held by … we’ll get you that answer the next half inning. AFLAC, ask about it at work.
And then maybe the Yankees will add Ben Sheets, who I think could be the steal of the offseason. His big thing is health, and maybe he just can’t stay healthy. Maybe that’s just his curse. But when he is healthy, he can be an absolutely dominant force even if few people seem to notice. His best year, he was dominant and he went 12-14.That says a lot. And this says a lot too: On June 8, 2004, Sheets threw nine innings of one-hit ball against Anaheim. He struck out five, didn’t walk anybody, threw only 103 pitches … it is, in many ways the best game he has pitched in his career. And he got a no decision.
Anyway, if the Yankees have those three to go along with Wang and Joba and Phil Hughes and whoever else — yeah that’s a pretty powerful statement.
* * *
I do not at all like the Kansas City Royals signing of reliever Kyle Farnsworth. I do not like it in a house. I do not like it with a mouse. I do not like it for two-years, $9.25 million, but I would not like it if it was two-years, 17 bucks and a box of Ho Hos. Royals general manager Dayton Moore asked me what I thought about it, and I told HIM I do not like it. Not that he should care about that.
But I do not like it, do … not … like … it. I do not like it because Farnsworth hasn’t even been league average the last three years. I do not like it because he throws a million miles an hour and can’t get people out. I do not like it because he once slammed reliever Jeremy Affeldt to the turf during a brawl and later could not even explain why. I do not like it because I would NEVER go out and spend $4-plus million on a volatile seventh or eighth inning reliever. I’m hoping that I am making myself clear here — I DO NOT LIKE THIS SIGNING.
To be fair, however, I do like Dayton Moore, and I believe he a good feel for pitching and how to build a bullpen. And he was insistent that the Royals needed a hard throwing righty to make it all work. There’s no doubt that Dayton Moore is a lot smarter than I am, so I am willing to begin on the premise that I am wrong and he is right and I am wrong and that Farnsworth will indeed help the club and be a difference maker.
But I will also pass along what one longtime observer of Farnsworth said: “The good news is it’ll reduce wear and tear on Joakim Soria’s arm. Because now, he will never, ever be given a lead.â€*
*The AFLAC Trivia Answer — which Yankees pitcher has struck out the most player in a season? — is, of course Ron Guidry with 248 strikeouts in 1978. If you think about it, that’s pretty amazing — no Yankees pitcher has ever struck out 250 batters in a season.
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Yeah, the Vegas airport is pretty strange, with the dichotomy of who is there: the people coming in, excited–giddy, really–and fresh. Then there are the people leaving: spent. Used up. Aged by ten years, anyway.
But they all play the slots.
And I have to say I love the margaritas with breakfast at the Cuervo restaurant. I’ve never actually set foot outside of the terminal, mind you. Sin City will forever be a layover for me.
When you go to see a movie, you have to accept the premise- a person can fly, there are undead people who suck blood- but to make a movie “believable” everything following that premise, has to follow and be logical. When that happens, the movie is believable.
What is worse than the Vegas airport is a Vegas grocery story. No more depressing place than that. They have slots. I need a loaf of bread, some milk, and play some slots.
The Family Man was a horrific movie. Really hated it. Saw it on cable and still wanted a refund.
Come on, man. Yeah, Sabathia is 1-4 at Yankee Stadium, but four of those five starts were in 2003 or earlier.
Having watched several years of Kyle Farnsworth be miserable on the Yankees, I wanted to make sure you know how scary having Krazy Kyle on the mound really is. I wish i could take credit for this, but Pete Abraham of The LoHud News wrote this after a game that Farnsworth blew, and it’s spot on.
There are levels of untrustworthy people in life.
5. Your buddy the addicted gambler who wants $20 “to get a few drinks†at the casino.
4. The girl who tells you the guy she has lunch with at work is “only a friend.â€
3. Cab drivers from Nowhereaztan who say they know a shortcut to Union Square.
2. Ticket scalpers who assure you, “these are great seats!â€
1. Kyle Farnsworth
Return of the Jedi
I was 15
Never, ever, have I looked forward to a movie like that
After the masterpiece that was Empire Strikes back
Wanted 4 stars
Got Ewoks instead of wookies for marketing reasons.
That was a -4 experience.
Bravo, Joe! Had me rolling once again. Great post. The DeNiro / Williams transformation is so true.
Now what if we were given your book as a gift for Christmas last year? Does that qualify me to be a facebook friend? I promise the person who bought it for me spent more than $5.99.
I love the movie expectations formula. Totally agree on the Leatherheads rating. Are there any movies that are +/- 4? I would think maybe those would be the “cult classic” movies? I don’t know. I’m pretty sure the last few movies I’ve seen have been solid 0.0’s. Can you go in expecting a +1? Like maybe it’ll be better than you think? Or does that throw everything off? I have so many questions about this now. It’s better for me to think about this than Kyle Farnsworth coming in with a 2-run lead in the 7th or 8th.
No Yankee with 3000 hits either.
a lot of people have layovers at the vegas airport, you know.
slots are perfect for that
A.J.’s best single season total for strikeouts is 231, which he did last year. His second best total is 203, which he did 6 years ago. Considering he’ll be 32 next year, I’d bet heavily that he never sniffs 250.
C.C., on the other hand, struck out 251 last year. Granted, he spent half the year in the NL striking out pitchers. However, he first hafl in the AL he K’d 123 men in 122 IP. And except in 2007, his K/9 rate has improved every year from 2002-2008. And he’s in his prime, turning 28 next year.
I’d say that of the two he has a much better chance of breaking Guidry’s record. Now if A.J. could consistently make 30+ starts a year, something he’s done just 2 times in 8 years, he’d have a decent shot.
Cricket is actually pretty simple, much more so than college football, I’d be happy to try and explain in detail, but in a nutshell it’s like baseball slowed down. There’s even more time in between pitches, there are only two bases to run to, and you don’t even have to run if you don’t feel like it. It’s also in a way even more of a chess match, as they move the fielders all over the place, stacking them right next to the batter even if it tips him to the location of the delivery, or does it? Or maybe it’s more like fishing, you sit out all day, get sunburned, drink beer, and every so often something exciting happens.
You are right about Leatherheads, but speaking of The Office….Season 5 is awesome.
The word you’re looking for is “coherent.” Hancock is enjoyable, but not in any way coherent. Ditto for most Michael Bay films.
As for the 0-16 question, you just have to ask Miami Dolphins fans. They started out 0-13. You just have to ask them how they felt after they beat the Ravens. (My guess is that the feeling was something in between happiness and what it was like the morning after you lost your virginity.)
[...] Vote Walking in a Winter Meetingland [...]
“Self-consistent” I believe captures the idea you are thinking of: a story must set up the ground rules for how things work, and then follow them.
I’m with you on “The Family Man,” although I’m really a sucker when it comes to any movie promoting the virtues of a healthy family. That movie was surprisingly enjoyable.
The winter meetings were a big tease for me. As an Angels fan, this offseason can literally go anywhere. Moreno has big bucks to spend, but maybe not *quite* big enough for Teixeira/Manny. And after that, everything’s really a crapshoot. I was hoping to come out of these meetings with a $23 mil/yr first basemen, but it’s looking less and less like that will happen.
[...] Vote Walking in a Winter Meetingland [...]
Hey, I bought and reviewed your book for free. What can I get for that? I reviewed Fatsis’ book, and I think I might get him to follow me on Twitter.
Just think of the possibilities: Fatsis, WSJ writer, NPR commentator… getting that alert from his phone… flipping it open… “zomg this line @starbux is 2 long wtf??? im like so latte(r) doodz!!!”
There’s a real bond there when a man gets a tweet like that.
Also, the thing that amazed me about Leatherheads is that you’ve got:
- Clooney, who can be charming just by showing up
- John Krasinski, who’s managed to make shrugging cute for half the women in America, and
- Zellweger, who’s managed to be perky, cute and adorable in almost every comedy she’s ever been in.
Then Clooney said, “No! All of us: be brassy and irritable. People will love it because we’re unpleasant AND talk fast.”
God, if ever there were a time for everyone to play exactly to typecasting, it was that.
I’m still waiting for someone to convince me to join Facebook. I currently see no benefit it from it other than it wasting my time. If I want to be “friends” with Joe, I’ll e-mail him. If he responds, super cool. If he doesn’t, I’ll still read this here awesome JoeBlog.
I think my best movie experience ever was “The Big Lebowski”. I had never heard of the Coen Brothers at the time, and my uncle suggested the four of us (him, my aunt, my special lady friend, and me) see this new comedy. Sure. Why not? I had no expectations and no clue what it was about. Turned out to be one of the best movies ever, a 5+ star experience. I was laughing out loud the entire movie. Probably the only +5 movie experience I’ll ever have.
That should be — “I currently see no benefit from it other than …” So strike the first “it”.
Sorry … I have to correct myself when I spot an error. It’s a sickness.
My Dad and I were discussing the Farnsworth signing over lunch today. The only explanation that came remotely close to appeasing us was that Moore could be planning to deal Farnsworth to a contender ala Octavio Dotel. The problem there, of course, is that Farnsworth would need to pitch well enough to actually be considered a trade deadline commodity. For this prop bet, Vegas has the money line at +1500.
From the KC Star:
“The rumor concerning Braves (players) started, it appears, in speculative talk among scouts from both clubs. Trades often start with such talks, and this was a natural because Moore acknowledges admiration for Francouer.”
Now, to be fair, Dayton Moore stated plainly that he wouldn’t trade for Frenchy later in that same story. The trouble here is the “Moore acknowledges admiration for Francouer” tidbit. To be clear, Francouer is not the problem. He is only a symptom. It appears that GMDM has a fetish with players producing an OBP approximating that of the right fielder on your first little league baseball team.
Now comes Kyle friggin’ Farnsworth! Where’s the team psychiatrist. Based on all recent available evidence, DM has a dangerous masochistic disorder. This is the sort of irrational behavior that might result in relegating Joakim Soria to fewer than 70 IP for a 3rd straight year.
“There’s no doubt that Dayton Moore is a lot smarter than I am…”
Really? You want to go with that? It smacks of gratuitous self-deprecation, if you ask me.
Dayton Moore does, in all probability, have a more expansive understanding of baseball than you do, Joe. Crap, he had better.
But SMARTER? I am quite certain that the work you produce, relative to others who have jobs similar to your own, positively dwarfs the work of DMGM, relative to his peers. A sort of “Value Above Replacement”, crossing industries, if you will.
You’re smarter than him, trust me. Of course, it could be that Farnsworth is the ONLY righty in the world with a 95 MPH fastball, and as such would have been a bargain at ANY price, given the scarcity.
Crap, I’m a Padre fan. I gat problems of my own to deal with.
“I’m still waiting for someone to convince me to join Facebook. I currently see no benefit it from it other than it wasting my time.”
Come on, you don’t want to have one awkward conversation with an ex you haven’t seen in 10 years, where you both dance around the fact that you’ve gained weight and lost hair/collagen, maybe half-heartedly flirt (right… like the two of you are ever having sex again; you live 2,000 miles, two spouses, some kids and a bunch of bad memories away), then ignore each other for 363 days a year — except for the two when Facebook reminds you its the other’s birthday, and all the automatic notices you get like, “EX-GIRLFRIEND HAS HIT YOU WITH A SNOWBALL! WOULD YOU LIKE TO JOIN SNOWBALL FIGHT AND THROW ONE BACK?” and “EX-GIRLFRIEND HAS JOINED FEMUR COLLECTOR 2000! CLICK HERE TO START COLLECTING YOUR OWN FEMURS”?
Loosen up, dude, that sounds rad as hell.
[...] Vote Walking in a Winter Meetingland [...]
‘I think there should be a special word for this kind of believable . . .’
There is a word for this: verisimilitude, “the quality, in a work of the imagination, of seeming to be true, either by reference to the external world of reality or by reference solely to the artist’s canons of truth for his imagined world.” (Websters Encyclopedic Dictionary)
Verisimilitude is a long word, and hard to spell. Believability sort of works, but the v-word is specifically for works of fiction.
Great stuff as always Joe. I look forward to reading your write up on the Winter Meetings. Do you have time to see Vegas or do you have to stick around in case a deal is made?
Believe it or not my dad once won about $100 playing the slots at the Vegas airport. Still can’t believe that happened – it’s like finding a 5-leaf clover.
I think my highest ‘movie experience’ that I can remember was “Sneakers”. Had never heard of it, didn’t know anything about it (zero expectations) and I ended up really enjoying it (3). I don’t know if any other +3 movies come to mind.
Y’all need to check out this show in Houston with Dave Raymond and Jim Deshaies. It’s one of the better offseason baseball shows I’ve ever heard. Tim Kurkjian was the guest this week and was calling in from the winter meetings. He’s got some funny stories too about Cal Ripken, Doug Rader, and Mickey Rivers. Joe, we need to get you on here. Check it out.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J.D._and_Dave%27s_Excellent_Offseason_Adventure
It continually amazes me that folks who are amenable to statistical analysis in baseball nevertheless seem to enjoy things like gambling, which even a little bit of research will show you is statistically stacked against you — the casinos don’t need to cheat, the numbers are stacked in their favor.
Some try to cover this flaw by insisting that they only really play poker, because that’s a game of skill. (The Twins blogger Aaron Gleeman used to be a lot more into poker than he seems to be these days, as an example.) Sure, poker’s a game of skill — that’s why professional poker players only play about 20% of their hands. it’d be like saying that hitting in baseball is a skill even though hitters only really made an effort once they’re ahead 2-0 in the count.
You know what’s fun? Eating. Vegas has some of the best food available anywhere in the U.S., and it’s remarkably cheap because a good chunk of it is subsidized by the yahoos who gamble. If you spend your money on the buffets and don’t play the slots or the sports book, you’re the one coming out ahead. In Vegas, that’s an accomplishment.
I remember Ron Gardenhire from his Mets days in the 80’s. Most of the Met fans I knew loved him, even though he couldn’t hit and wasn’t much of a fielder either. Davey Johnson was a great manager…he made it all work.
Nate
Regarding the Lions:
If I were a fan I’d want them to go 0-16 so then we could have our own ‘72 Dolphins thing. Rudi Johnson could hire Mercury Morris as a mentor and then follow around really bad teams until they won, ranting about how there’s no way this new team would have lost to his ‘08 Lions.
And of course Rod Marinelli would open a series of Steak Houses.
I was only 9 or so when Hook came out. Even then I remember being shocked by its badness.
Biggest movie expectation flop? Blair Witch. Took the whole family to that one and two hours later watched 400 people walk out with fish hooks hanging out of their lips…..ours included.
If the Royals WERE to consider Soria as a starter, who do you suppose they would consider to be their closer? As a Tiger fan, I dislike Farnsworth about as much as anybody, but it seems to me they had closing in mind when they got him–for a while at least.
You forgot a couple of Tigers when you were considering people who lost prime years to WWII. Greenberg and McCosky were fine young players before the war interrupted them. Hoot Evers was supposed to be the new Dimaggio. (Probably the people saying that meant Joe, but Dom might have been more likely)
Joe,
You finally wore me down. I bought your book. It was that quote from O’Neil, which I’ve read a bunch of times before BTW, that got me. Maybe I was just in a optimistic mood or something.
The bottom line is I look forward to reading it.
Also, keep a lookout for me, I will be friending you on Facebook very soon.
Joe,
I’ve lived in Grand Rapids, MI for over two years, and trust me Lions fans young and old do not care about the Lions. They’re jokers good for a laugh with their drafts, latest ways to lose, and locker room thefts. Kids learn how to deal with losses from their parents, and there are no parents who feel anything at all after a Lions loss. Six or seven years ago perhaps it would be different, but the Lions have sunk to jester status and will remain there for a while until they start winning consistently again.
The only time I even saw Lions fans get worked up in the last two years was when Millen was fired. People talked about how it was long overdue, but oddly no one expected the Lions to get better in the near future and especially not get any better this season.
Of course, my finger could be off the pulse since I liked Leatherheads. I have avoided Hancock, but the last movie I watched with zero expectations and enjoyed was the Weatherman. It was easily a plus 2 for me.
Reason 1,236,842 baseball is better then football: No baseball fan has EVER had to deal with a winless season. Even the ‘62 mets won 25% of their games. The worst team last year, the Nationals, won 59 games. At least kids in Washington could be happy 38% of after game mornings. Also, playing everyday means less time to hurt. Tomorrow is another game.
I can’t wait to befriend Joe on Facebook!
I loved Hook. I was 6 years old when it came out on video and I watched it probably every day for the first six months, then once a week til I was 11. It’s everything you could want in a movie:
Coming of age
Family
Sports
Pirates
Love
Comedy
Hoffman
I’m hurt, Joe.
Bangarang.
A few things…*ahem*…
Will Smith SUCKS. The Will Smith Serious Acting Face needs to go in the pantheon of Bill Simmons faces. It is truly terrible, and he is the worst actor immaginable…worse than those bitches on The Hills.
The Money Pit was awesome.
Vice Versa was the best movie ever, minus The Big Lebowski (Thank you Damon).
I have been chastized in the comment space on this blog for my lack of cricket knowledge before, but it is a FASCINATING game. Earlier this year, there was a 20/20 Cricket Match broadcast on ESPN during football time on Sunday, and guess what I watched?? Here’s all you need to know about cricket:
Sachin Tendulkar is the Michael Jordan of Cricket. SACHIN TENDULKAR.
You’re welcome.
I’m sorry, but Hook is really a pretty good movie. Three stars.
I dealt craps for seven years at a casino in Iowa. Impossible to explain it all here, but if you want to hang out at the table and observe the craziness, here’s what you do. Put the minimum bet on the “Pass Line,” and once a point is established (when the dealer turns his/her puck to “on”), put 2x your passline bet behind the line (if you can afford to do so).
Dealers/Players are usually nice about educating newbies, but know this: if a player is throwing money into that box in the center, they really don’t know as much about the game as they think they do. The vigs on those bets are killers.
I don’t get signing Farnsworth either. Way too much money. I’m really starting to wonder about Moore.
1. Gambling is entertainment, not an investment strategy. This is why people who understand the math still gamble.
2. Hat tip to Jeremy. Great Yankees stat.
3. I’d much prefer 0-16 to 1-15. Plus, I think the stomach punch feeling after losses fades after a few years of being bad. Is anybody in detroit really walking around asking themselves how could the Lions have lost last week?
4. Sure the Yankees can go out and spend $300M on free agents, but money doesn’t buy championships or something.
The movie +/- phenomenon is an interesting one, and is subject to personal tastes, hype for the movie and mindset when you see the movie. I find, though, that a movie that gets a plus rating would get a minus on subsequent viewings. Case in point: I was exhausted and fever delirium-sick the first time I saw Ace Ventura and would have given in a solid +2 at least. When it was on television later and I caught it, MAN was it bad, and worse still because I remembered having enjoyed it when I saw it the first time around.
Blair Witch would have been a plus movie experience for me, because I saw it at a sneak preview, before the hype machine had taken off and I had no idea what to expect. The Matrix, conversely, was a minus – everyone had touted it as a work of pure genius by the time I saw it, and I was nonplussed by the concept (it seemed very much like high school-level philosophy to me) and Keanu Reeves’ wooden acting.
My worst movie experience was probably Star Wars Episode I. If that had actually been the first released installment of the franchise, I doubt we’d ever have seen an Episode II.
Also, I like the Money Pit. Though it was muddled by a lot of the extraneous plot points (the Shelley Long and creepy conductor love saga dragged), but I miss the old shouting-angry Tom Hanks.
You have the same movie rating system as my brothers and I. Hancock was so-so, but a +1 for me because I had seen Will Smith in The Pursuit of Happyness” which was a -3. Plus, just looking at Charlize gets you something.
Dayton Moore is starting to scare me. Thank God for college BB.
Also, Facebook’s only as annoying as you’re willing to let it become. For me, it’s basically an easy way to keep in touch with people, get in touch with old friends and send out invites to events without worrying about forgetting someone – generally, most everyone I’d want to invite to a get-together is right there on an easy-to-access list and you don’t have to dig up email addresses.
With the latter two, you have to be kind of discerning – some people want to touch base with everyone they’ve ever met, and that just adds to clutter on the Facebook account. Plus, you have to actually be realistic about invites and know who to invite to what.
I guess I basically just treat it as email with some added perks and conveniences. Nuts to all the extra applications. They’re pretty useless and easy to ignore.
Joe: Please do start on the phenomenon of Vegas’ cocktail waitresses…I can’t imagine a better read on that subject than one by you. Oh, PLEASE,PLEASE, PRETTY PLEASE!!!
The thing i like about the farnsworth signing is the toughness I hope he brings. I hope it rubs off so guillen cant say the royals are babies or whatever he said. Hopefully kyle is not just a jerk with a power arm and can tutor our young royals in toughness. Moore has a way to put together a bullpen so i will think it be better than you think. Of course I am more a royals believer than you are.
Hook was bad but what makes it classic is the meeting of rufio and hook. More specifcally the taunting hook does right before they fight. An old girlfriend I had said what really made it classic was the kiss between tink and pan. Thats why shes a former girlfriend.
Two things:
1. I’ve only “been” to Vegas once, and that was during a layover. The slots were a nice diversion while I was waiting for my plane. I’d imagine that’s a big reason why the slots are there — for layovers (especially if you’re taking Southwest to the West Coast, for instance).
2. I’m also a Lions fan, and have been since Gary Danielson/Bubba Baker/Doug English/Eric Hipple/Billy Sims. Right now, I’m rooting for 0-16. This team is so horrifically bad that it’s comical. Last week, the starting center got into it with some fans immediately after the game, he flipped them off, and the front office just kinda shrugged their collective shoulders with a $7500 fine.
This team cannot score, they cannot pass, they can only marginally run, they have the worst starting offensive tackle in the league (Jeff Backus, who somehow has started every game for the last six years while always comitting two penalties per game), they can’t defend, they can’t tackle. The Lions’ only bright spot is kicker Jason Hanson, who set a career NFL record for most 50-yard FG a couple of weeks ago.*
*Here’s something to consider — the Lions have had only two regular placekickers since 1981, Eddie Murray and Jason Hanson. TWO. They’ve had seven head coaches (counting interim) in the last decade. SEVEN.
When the Lions started 0-13 a few years ago, at least they were competitive; they lost 9 games (or something) by eight points or less and had leads in the 4th quarter in several of those games. They looked somewhat like this year’s Chiefs, actually.
I listen to a lot of talk radio and shake my head at people who say the Chiefs are horrible. Really, they’re not. They’re bad, sure, they can look awful when giving up 54 against Buffalo, but at least they’re not the Lions.
Why can’t you just integrate your movie rating system with your baseball thoughts? For example:
Expectations for Kyle Farnsworth: 0 stars
Performance: ?
So he has +star potential. Now, you might argue that for $9M Farnsworth has more than 0 star expectations, but even with the money, what can you really expect from him? Maybe you could go to 1 star but probably not much higher. However, looking back on his career, he’s had several multi-star years (including the 4-star 2005), so there you have your +star potential with Farnsworth.
The trick is that you must not be fooled into raising expectations for him like the Yankees were by his 2005 season.
Incidentally, the current “Hook” of baseball has to be Barry Zito who has thus far been one of the few -4 star experiences (maybe higher if you are a die-hard Giant fan). This also explains animosity for ARod who has 5-star expectations and delivers 3-stars in the playoffs.
Only time I’ve ever played slots was in the Vegas Airport, on a 3-hour layover… so there’s always that.
I’m a little surprised you expected anything out of Leatherheads because Reilly was involved. His work has dropped off the last few years, and his schtick on Reilly’s Riffs (or whatever that was called) and PTI is really tiresome. He seems like a failed stand-up comic that became the wacky sports guy for the local news.
And yes, I also liked Hook.
Plus, growing up in Michigan I am totally rooting for 0-16. Just do it already. Nothing can be worse than the past decade has already been anyway…
I suspect the Royals hope that Farnsworth pulls a Braden Looper, which is to say, because Farnsworth pitched poorly for the Yankees, his abilities have been overly besmirched.
In other words, fail in NY and the perception of you as a player goes down a lot more than if you fail elsewhere.
People still think Looper isn’t much of a pitcher, despite the fact that he pitched well in Florida before his years with the Mets, and pitched very well in the proper role for him for the Cards in 2006 and then, after being asked to do something he never had done before, pitched adequately for the Cards as a starter in 2007-2008. But I bet the general perception of Looper is the guy who blew a bunch of saves with the Mets.
Yeah, I think Farnsworth has a lot of grit. Hopefully he can take his grittiness and pass it on to the other Royals players. I’d just love a team full of grit. It’d be like a team of David Ecksteins. We’d just know how to win.
Kyle Farnsworth is garbage, and a $9MM contract over two years is absolutely ludicrous.
I’ve never had a better time at a movie than seeing “Rumble in the Bronx” back in college.
Good Cecil Travis trivia – In 1941, when Joe D. had the hitting streak and Ted Williams hit .406, who led the league in hits? Travis, with 218.
During the war he served with the 10th Mtn. Division (I think) and he got pretty bad frostbite on his foot, so that also hurt him when he came back.
James…your nuts. immediately after seeing Family Man, I went out and bought it. I’ve never done that before or since. Good call Joe.
However, I like the Farnsworth signing. Let’s just see how it goes. If he does well for one year, we can move him for another everyday player and move on.
I think Anchorman was a +3 for me. I had been let down by Will Ferrell movies too many to get excited (Old School had been a particular disappointment the year before), but got dragged along with some friends when they went to see it. Whatever, I’ll endure it.
Anchorman SLAYED me. Right form the opening credits. God that move was BRILLIANT. 4 stars all the way.
According to a friend who has done PR work for a few different casinos, the Vegas airport slots are set to “hit”often, but with low payouts. This has a psychological effect on people, making them think that they will be sure winners. The same settings are used on slots close to the entrances of casinos.
I don’t find craps to be confusing at all: I put some money out, some body throws the dice, the dealer takes my money, and I put out some more.
What could be simpler than that?
“I guess I basically just treat it as email with some added perks and conveniences. Nuts to all the extra applications. They’re pretty useless and easy to ignore.”
Good point. I’ll keep investigating and considering.
So you spend millions on a guy in Farnsworth, that everyone had a chance to sign in the hopes you can trade him to one of those teams later for someone useful?
Uh, no.
I’m a displaced Michigander and Lions fan living in Cincinnati (making me one of the 6 non-native Cincinnatians to be excited to see UC in a BCS bowl), and I think the only honest answer to the 0-16 question is that I really don’t know what I think.
I think I agree with the 1-15 vs. 0-16 stuff, and that I’d rather have history than just a bad team, but Michigan’s unequivocal worst season ever was terrible, and I expected them to be bad, so I’m not sure I’d like it in the end.
For whatever reason, I go to BDubs every week to watch the Lions (the one in Rookwood, I’m the guy sitting alone in a Calvin Johnson jersey if you ever see me), and I was there last year when the Dolphins beat the Ravens. There are always a couple of ‘Fins fans there, and they were going nuts, the team was going nuts, and it made me feel good. I don’t think that’s an “I remember where I was when…” story you tell your kids or anything, but it means something to me now. I actually think the “for whatever reason” I started this paragraph with sums most Lions fans up best. We’re not sure why we care and root, but we do, and the losses are more tragically funny than anything else.
The best thing that could probably happen from a team and fan-psyche standpoint is what happened to the 2003 Tigers, though. That team was barrelling toward the worst finish in baseball history when they somehow pulled together and won 5 of their last 6 to finish one loss shy of the record. I remember feeling a strange sense of pride that even guys as low as they could be that were complete laughingstocks had enough pride and guts to do that. It made me feel a little better about the whole terrible experience.
I hope the Lions beat the Pack in week 17. Maybe a come-from-behind, but just a win would work. That would at least give me something…
My favorite LV slot machine moment. We arrived for a wedding and immediately rented a car to head out to the desert. I had forgotten my sunglasses, so we stopped in an Osco to buy a pair. And in this Osco were 6 slot machines, 3 of them occupied by the saddest, most loserish refugees from Povertyville you’ve ever imagined. Glitz? Glitter? Food and drink? Nope, pulling slots in a crowded OSco…..
Craps is great. It’s a really simple game if you stay away from exotic bets (and the exotic bets in almost every game are sucker bets anyway), and the odds are pretty close to even. Understanding math, I also understand small sample size. I play craps once a year on my annual Vegas trip with my buddies. Really, it’s an excuse to high five total strangers. The craps table is one of the most social places in Vegas. It’s just a lot of fun and if I lose, eh, I’m out a hundred bucks for the entertainment.
I don’t think one should gamble craps every day, but as a once a year proposition, it’s really a lot of fun. There’s no talking at the poker tables and there’s too many jerks at the blackjack tables. Craps has the best crowd.
My only -4 experience at the movies is Synecdoche, NY. I loved Charlie Kaufman’s other movies, I love Philip Seymour Hoffman and Emily Watson, and it got terrific reviews. And what an utter, pretentious pile of drivel it turned out to be. Zero stars. And I was REALLY looking forward to it. My +4 experience is Jackass: The Movie. Seriously. I think it’s one of the funniest things I’ve ever seen and I was forced to watch it over my howls of protest.
Speaking of major leaguers who lost time to the war, Dom DiMaggio, Bobby Doerr, and Johnny Pesky all lost significant time to military service. If they hadn’t, we might not have heard so much about 1918 the past 5 years
I liked Family Man. I have an unusal fondness for Tea Leoni though so I might be biased.
I actually didn’t read through all the posts to see if anyone said this yet but, So when Farnsworth and Olivio share the field does that mean they also will be competing for WWE tag team title? I don’t know what to think of the signing, but I do know Kansas City is only a few players away from establishing it’s own MMA league.
On another note I actually wrote M. Nightshamlamadingdong an email asking for my time back after seeing The Village, not my money, my TIME.
Airport Slots.
You’re waiting for your plane. You can’t go anywhere–you’re stuck. You’re bored with your copy of Twilight or whatever. Oh, look. One last chance to gamble. Never underestimate the value of captive and bored customers.
Mike Vaughn: After watching Heartbreakers, I wrote Jennifer Love Hewitt suggesting that she owed me two hours of her time for enduring that movie. Strangely, even though I offered that the two hours would be spent in a well-lit, public area with as many members of her entourage around her as she liked, I never heard back.
Glad you brought up M. Night Shyamalan, though. The Sixth Sense was a major plus movie experience for me, because I had no idea what to expect. Unbreakable was maybe a minus-one (I’d heard lots of good buzz and it just didn’t live up to it). After that, it was a steady stream of minuses. I haven’t seen Lady in the Water, but have somehow managed to catch the rest of his flicks, and even when you expect them to be bad, they somehow underperform.
I work at a movie theater and met my wife working there. Right after we started dating, she wanted to go see The Weatherman with Nic Cage. At that point, I thought Cage sucked and wanted nothing to do with the movie, but the girl had me and I watched it. It was actually pretty entertaining, a solid +2. I’ve never watched it since, since I’m pretty sure it did suck, but at that time, it was a good movie. It also changed my views on Nicolas Cage. I think he and Keanu Reeves are essentially the same in that you know what you are getting with them. They aren’t very good, and pretty much everyone knows that. I’ve never been at a point where I can’t wait to see any of their movies, but for the most part, they get roles that suit them and play to their strengths, which usually translates to a fairly enjoyable experience. I think Sandra Bullock is in this category too. (In fairness, I haven’t watched the day The Earth Stood Still yet.)
Oh, and I fell asleep watching The Village. I know I can’t have been the only person in the country that did that.
The key to watching cricket for someone brought up on baseball is a switch in thinking regarding runs and outs. In cricket runs are “eh” but outs are gold — the game stops for them, there are hugs and high fives, the departing batsman is a tragic figure.
The other major requirement is an understanding of the leg-before-wicket rule, so gather round as I explain.
1) A ball pitching in line with . . . [five hours later, following an amount of study to pass most bar exams] . . . the batsman shall be given out.
2) A ball pitching . . . [another five hours elapses] . . . the batsman shall be given not out.
Sections 3 through 10 will be covered at a later date.
1. Derek Jeter will.
2. Farnsey? Hah!
3. Where is Gran Torino playing?????
4. I’m a librarian. I buy books. Everybody should want to be my facebook friend.
Sorry, guys….but I DO suck
Agree with Damon; had no expectations at all about The Big Lebowski, a reluctant viewer really. A top ten film in all regards and a rating of +5.
At the other end of the scale, The Lord Of The Rings, given the hype surrounding it and the patriotic duty attached to attendance in this part of the world, had an expectation value of 5 and an experience value of zero. Even in a Soviet Gulag sitting through this load of tosh would have been considered too cruel a punishment.
I am absolutely AMAZED that there are people who do NOT want the Lions to go 0-16!
Unless it’s Matt Millen who voted 80 times, how do you NOT want to see this?
If only the Royals valued outs as highly as those who play cricket, Graphite…
That’s a minus-4, the worst possible movie experience.
Pfffft. I can easily beat that. Star Wars the Phantom Menace. I expected a 17. I got a -2.
The new Star Trek movie might go this way too. It looks pretty awesome. I love the idea of a reboot. Unlike 99.9% of all fans, I LOVE the new Apple Bridge on the Enterprise. I love the casting. I love everything I’ve seen about it.
So my expectation (further emboldened by the hope that this will lead to a new Star Trek TV series) is probably at around a 164. This is not going to end well…
To be honest, I actually liked Hancock, but it was WAY too short, and ended at a really bad point. Really, that’s it? Why not cliffhanger it for the apparently inevitable sequel? At least give me SOME CLUE as to who “they” are, and why “they” made the superheroes this way.
Sachin Tendulkar is the Michael Jordan of Cricket. SACHIN TENDULKAR.
Brian Lara takes objection at the Michael Jordan throne being awarded to anyone but himself.
@ Justin
After watching Heartbreakers, I wrote Jennifer Love Hewitt suggesting that she owed me two hours of her time for enduring that movie. Strangely, even though I offered that the two hours would be spent in a well-lit, public area with as many members of her entourage around her as she liked, I never heard back.
See, that was your problem. You should have told her the two hours would have been spent in a sleazy motel just off the interstate! She’d have called you for being late!
So I’m a Braves fan, which means you should know what I think about Farnsworth. I think he’s right up there for worst person in baseball. He’s an absolute scumbag, and I couldn’t believe the Royals paid him as much as they did. It’s a real shame, and I’m sorry for your team.
Joe,
Thanks for all you do and share.
Thanks for all the Vegas cocktail waitresses do and share.
re: Hook – loud, messy, with giant postage stamps on most of the performances. Also, it’s a fate worse than death to think that Peter Pan could grow up to be Robin Williams: either the serious version OR the over-hyper version. Dustin Hoffman, the boy who played Peter’s son (his name escapes me), and Maggie Smith as the elderly Wendy Moira Angela Darling were the only decent things about that movie.
Good point about Braden Looper. As a Mets fan I can elaborate a bit. I for one wasn’t angry about his pitching, especially knowing that he pitched while badly hurt in order to try to help his team. My trouble was that he chose to tell NOBODY about his injury until he had been rung like a pinball machine all year. That’s the sort of thing one NEEDS to tell management so they can:
A) get you medical treatment to protect your career and their investment
B) make some sort of deal to keep the season going
I appreciate what he was hoping to accomplish, but one shouldn’t play hurt – especially a pitcher.
You write too much Joe. You’re reaching over-exposure.
I was in an airport in Reno at a young age. All the slot machines have signs saying that if you are under 18, you must stay six feet away from this machine. I did (and basically still do) take directions like these seriously and literally, so I was having a heck of a time positioning myself so that I was at least 6 feet from all slot machines at all times.
And Joe, geez man I don’t know what to say. You are really good at picking and arranging words. You bring real joy to real people. It’s something I have real admiration for.
Oh and I second the desire to “get you started” about the whole cocktail waitress thing. At least throw us a pozterick.
Shrek: expected a 1.5. May have just been airplane grogginess, but had a 4 experience. That’s a +2.5.
Mets 2008: expected a 4. That’s a -4. Funny thing is, Omar wins every OFFseason.
I’ve never lost money in slots in Vegas, following this simple advice. Find a slot near a casino entrance that is being played. Watch it/them for a while to see no payouts. When vacated, sit and play until you get a decent win. Then stop. I’ve never made less than $20, which in hindsight probably wasn’t worth my time. But the airport there is a captive audience, and I’d never consider playing it.
The movie with the +- worst numbers for me was “Star Trek: The Motion Sickness.” I expected greatness, there was an incredible open sequence with the best looking Klingons we’d ever seen, and it was like the opening was the trailer for the (never released) Klingon movie, and nothing else was worth watching. I mean nothing; recycled script, no good lines, nothing. That would be my -4. Another high negative would be “Plenty”. My wife and I eschewed all Meryl Streep movies for a *long* time after that, some of which were actually okay upon rental. I’m with Joe on “Hook” (expected a lot more) and with several on “The Phantom Menace”. On the plus side, “Ishtar” was a lot better than I expected. It was a 2-3 star movie with an unjustified 4 star budget and thus got panned down to zero star expectations. But my best +- movie experience was “Monty Python and the Holy Grail.” I was basically talked into it by a fellow freshman I’d met just a few weeks earlier and didn’t know or trust (but I was the one with a car for the drive in to Westwood) and in 1973 I’d never heard of Monty Python. I was told it would be silly, and I didn’t think I enjoyed silly. If it hadn’t been for the social benefits of being the driver, I’d have said no, but my parents told me I needed to try new things. My expectations were at best a one. Then the opening credits hit. “A moose once bit my sister. No, really!” I was ready to leave fulfilled after the credits when the screen was blank, five minutes in, before the movie has really begun, having gotten every penny of my admission’s fee in laughter. The only time I’ve fallen out of my chair laughing was at “The Life of Brian”, at a sneak preview in Westwood a few years later (the “Hail Messiah nude scene) but my expectations were much higher for that one. My wife’s best +- pic would probably be “The Simpson’s Movie” which I heartlessly dragged her too and had her cackling out loud; she’s a tough crowd.
But it’s worth remembering that everybody is different. I remember taking a girl on a date to see “Alien”, a girl who was noticeably warm for my form before the movie, but while I was covering my face in horror, she was cackling in laughter because it seemed so fake to her. Similarly, I think “The Fellowship of the Ring” may well be the best movie ever made. Some folks lack the ability to suspend disbelief and get into genre movies. For them, there’s always Meryl Streep.
I saw Hancock in the theater and didn’t read or see any of the buildup hype, no previews, no nothing. So I went in cold. And I pretty much never see movies, so this was seriously cold.
** spoilers **
- This was the first time in a long time (and possibly the greatest example ever) of casting causing to foreshadowing. When you get to Bateman’s house and Theron is his wife, you can’t logically sit there and think that Theron’s character is minor, even though they play her off as such to start with and for a third of the movie. The only real twist in the whole movie was tipped off solely because of casting.
- Hancock, as a superhero, is bulletproof, but his leather suit has no reason to be.
- Lets have a big-ass superhero fight in the middle of town. No one will notice.
Jeff, an Orioles fan myself, I know what you mean . . .
Also, props to Joe for the Dr Seuss reference and to Paul O, a true wordsmith, for verisimilitude.
I don’t want the Lions to go 0-16, because I am a human being. But they’re going to, so it doesn’t really matter.
I’ve been reading rogerebert.com since the early ’90s, and Turner Classic Movies is one of my favorite cable channels, so I like to think of myself as pretty movie literate. Even if I haven’t seen a movie, I’ve most likely heard of it and/or know what it’s about. There’s only one time I’ve been thoroughly surprised and shocked by a movie — zero expectations with amazing reward.
One night I was flipping around channels late at night and I come upon the beginning of a movie I’d never heard of, on PBS, of all places. For some reason I start watching it…
It looks like a TV movie of the week filmed in the seventies, opening on a suburban house with some wholesome family running around… there’s that guy, (William DeVane, right? Wasn’t he in Marathon Man?) with black hair, he drives off to work… hey, Kevin Costner’s in this movie? Weird … the wife, some actress I’ve never seen before, playing a frustrated housewife… William DeVane calls her from work, she’s talking to him as she’s watching some news report on the TV…
… and then it happened.
The movie was “Testament” (1980), and the actress, Jane Alexander, was nominated for Best Actress for her amazing work. Such a powerful and heart-rending movie, and the biggest +/- movie differential I’ve ever experienced.
“I don’t want the Lions to go 0-16, because I am a human being.”
Human beings seem to admire greatness. And this Lion franchise is great at losing. A perfect losing season would be the pinnacle of their losing greatness. It needs to happen.
Joe wasn’t alone with his feelings on Hook.
People had been waiting for Spielberg to tackle Peter Pan for years. He had long been called Hollywood’s PP for his treatments of adolescent adventures. The scene from E.T. with the mom reading Pan to little Drew Barrymore while the alien looked on in wonder left everyone wanting his take on the story.
And Spielberg had spent the past few years making prestige pictures (Oscar-whoring would be the less kind description) and focusing on his various executive producing gigs. Hook was to be his big return to the popcorn-blockbuster (to be fair Last Crusade had been two years earlier, but a rather elegiac tone hovered over that).
And Hook promised to turn the Peter Pan story inside out, reinventing it for the postmodern world. Top it off with the all star cast and expectations were high enough to be silhouetted by the moon.
I guess if you were young when you first saw it you can forgive it. I immediately think of that horde of child actors on skateboards and get queasy. Rufio! Rufio! Ru! Fi! O!
The tragic part of the Pete Reiser story is that he kept getting hurt in the Army- concussions and sprains and such. It must have been like watching AJ Burnett play centerfield.
“Family Man” is one of my five all-time favorite movies. I have to admit I’m not a Nic Cage fan, So my Expected rating was much like yours (maybe a 1.5??). Freaking brilliant, especially the ending. You really don’t know if they will get together or not do you?
Creston:
The “They” in Hancock are L. Ron Hubbards alien intelligencia. Will Smith is a HUGE Scientologist and he and Travolta often take rolls that further the religions mission.
re: movie believability …
I have a buddy who refers to the “box of reality” theory. It basically says that a mive’s premise sets up a universe in which certain things are believable.
The best example I can think of is Jurassic Park III. Of course, we can’t clone and re-create dinosaurs, but the movie requires you to suspend that disbelief for a couple hours. Done.
One of the coolest parts of the first movie is when the SUV is stalled next to the T-Rex enclosure and the water in the glass starts vibrating, and everybody knows the T-Rex is close.
Fast Forward to Part III …
Remember, the dinosaur on the island is supposed to be even bigger and meaner than the T-Rex. There’s a scene where the characters are gathered in an open area next to the woods. All of a sudden, they turn around, and the thing is standing there, and we’re led to believe that it was able to sneak up one them. Ridiculous! They hear a cell phone ringing from inside of it, but they can’t hear/feel it walking toward them?
Stupid movie.
Love the blog, Joe. Thanks.
Kyle Farnsworth: The good news– throws a bazillion miles an hour
The bad news — gritty Kyle doesn’t like to come in with runners on base, doesn’t like to pitch on consecutive days, showed up Joe Torre (ya think he might not respect Trey Hillman?)
Come to think of it, more good news: the Yanks get to face ol’ Krazy Kyle.
RE: HOOK
“Sorry, guys….but I DO suck”
As hilarious as that comment was, I feel the need to defend ‘Hook’.
I was 4 when it came out and mostly likely 5 or 6 when I first saw it, but I LOVED that movie. (One could say it was the exact opposite reaction Roger Ebert had to ‘North’.) I must have watched it at least once a week. Rufio was the epitome of cool. As depressing as it sounds, I wanted more than anything to be one of the Lost Boys. It wasn’t until a year or so ago that I realized it was so widely panned by critics (pun well intended), but I can’t help but have a soft spot for the movie.
It’s all subjective I suppose, but one Spielberg disaster I think we can all agree on is ‘A.I.’.
Worst movie experience has to be Spiderman 3. I don’t even know where to begin rating it. Only movie I have ever seen where I actually thought that I had fallen asleep and was experiencing my worst nightmare. Kirsten Dunst singing (twice!!!)? Peter Parker dancing down the street a la Saturday Night Fever?? Emo hair?! WTF?!?!?!? Even thinking about it makes my blood boil.
Best experiences were the Matrix and the first Pirates. Went into the former knowing diddly about it and it was awesome. I expected the latter to be a typical Disney ‘cutesy’ movie, but got ‘The Black Cauldron’ instead. Both are definitely in my top 10 now.
0-16 is the only way. And the auto makers across town need to see zeros as well (i.e. bankruptcy). I don’t know if it actually practically works in non-philosophical terms, but I feel the Cartesian Method is the only way to turn things around in both cases. Break it down to its essence – in this case, utter failure – and slowly build it back up using things you are certain will work.
I would rather read joe’s thoughts about the cocktail waitresses than any more about the Lions.
Joe -
I love the concept of “movieable” but don’t think the term quite fits. How about movie-istic? (movie + realistic) as in when that happened it was completely unmovie-istic.
The +/- movie idea is gold.
I think my biggest – ever has to be Hulk. I thought it was going to be about a 3…enjoyable, yet not great. Ebert loved it, so that must have meant something. Instead I got one of the honest-to-god worst movies I’ve seen. I mean, 4 split screens in every shot? Why? That may have been a minus-3, for a total of minus-6.
Biggest plus? Batman Begins. I think with The Dark Knight being awesome, some have forgotten what a great movie Batman Begins was. I was intrigued to see it, and it vastly exceeded expectations. That’s possible, right?
Nice article Joe.
As to Gardy, here’s one of his biggest trends. If things are going well for the team, he won’t touch it. Remember last year when Gomez was in a month long slump and had a .204 OBP. Well the team went 17-7 in that streak so Gardy was going to give him those ABs to get better. It wasn’t until the team lost 2 in a row that he moved him from leadoff to 9th. He’s generally an optomist so if things aren’t going well, they’ll get better so he’s willing to stick with struggling players longer, so long as they’re putting in effort. Sometimes that backfires when he gives a vet too much playing time but it does show why players seem to like playing for him.
One more movie experience —
When I was in my midteens a Friday night ritual for sassy high school kids was to gather at the local shopping centre; the early sixties equivalent of hanging out at the mall. If the action was slow, a friend and I would often stroll along to the movie theatre, mingle in with the half-time crowd having their kerbside Coke and cigarette break and then wander in with the paying customers for the feature. Wrong, I know — my entire defence rests on being young and poor.
Whatever, that’s how I came to first see The Bells Are Ringing and the incomparable Judy Holliday. Until the screen lit up I had no idea what was scheduled; by the end of the film I was besotted. Still am.
I’ve seen the movie a couple of times in the past ten years; I’d say it holds up as well as anything from the sixties . . . it’ll outlast me, for sure. A definite 5 for a 5+ experience.
My plus 5 movie experience was an old movie that I had heard of but never considered seeing. My wife brought it home for us one day from the library, nothing else was on TV, so I said sure. Fifteen minutes into the Movie, I had discovered who Audrey Hepburn was in Breakfast at Tiffany’s.
Know nothing about Farnsworth. So don’t know if he is the right choice. But a flame-thrower to set up Soria makes perfect sense. Should make him that much more effective.
I was a freshman in high school and my mom talked me into seeing some “cop movie” with Travolta (she likes Travolta). Turned out to be a gangster flick featuring a drug overdose, rape, and numerous murders. Best movie experience ever, thank you Pulp Fiction. Big Lebowski, The Matrix, American Beauty, and Eastern Promises are also high on the list.
Worst include the last Matrix, Star Wars with Jar Jar, and Ladykillers
What is the Chiefs’ pythag W-L this year? It can’t be that bad, considering most of their losses seem to be late and close.
Good news for them though, they moved “ahead” of the Bengals in the draft order. Tied with the Rams for second.
Hey Joe,
No comment on the latest great blog entry, rather, a question that I hope you’ll see.
Thanks for mentioning TSOB is so damn cheap on Amazon. I know, it’s a mixed blessing, but thanks to the low price I plan to buy several for friends. Is there any chance I could have them shipped to you, signed, and then shipped to me? This, of course, would be of no cost to you outside of a bit of ink and (invaluable) time.
A modest request, no? Or am I off my rocker?
Either way, thanks from a long time reader of the Star and your old and current blogs.
To all those giving 4 or 5 stars in the +/- movie rating: not knowing what to expect is not the same as expecting 0 stars. I.e, knowing nothing about The Big Lebowski does not mean you expect a 0 star movie. A situation in which you might expect a 0 star movie is if you are about to watch From Justin to Kelly.
Also, Nicolas Cage’s career is like a sine graph; he’ll have a good performance (i.e, Raising Arizona–an underrated classic with one of the best scenes ever filmed) and then establish himself as a bankable mega-star. Then he will take crappy roles in terrible movies (i.e, the comic book movie with the flaming skull biker dude–I forget the name, or The Wicker Man). At this point everyone considers him to be a terrible actor. Yet somehow he will get a great role in a good movie and act the hell out of it (i.e, Adaptation–my favorite movie ever). Then, he will again be considered a star and get crappy roles in big crappy movies and everyone will think he’s no good anymore.
Rick Reilly, a longtime hero of mine.
really? Sweet lord, why? Because he serves as a bad example?
I’ve always found him hackneyed to the point of abominable. I was displeased when espn.com added him to make up for Bill Simmons’s diminished output … yes, Bill can get lame too (especially in his 400 word “the Magazine” posts), but he does provide some pretty well thought out basketball analysis.
Rick Reilly just … ugh … his latest espn.com column – about the golfers foiling a robbery – has, somewhere, inside there, a good story that needs to be told. But, clearly, he is not the one to tell it.
My movie +/- experience was with The Fight Club. Living in Oslo, Norway pre Netflix and no Amazon the choice of movies was a little limited to say the least (and bloody expensive too; $7 a day).
Wandering down the the neighborhood 7/11 as one did on a Sunday afternoon as all the stores are closed from Sat. afternoon until Mon. morning, the choices on the shelf were either picked clean or old Arnold movies.
I’d not heard a word about Fight Club and it was afterall Edward Norton, one of my fav. actors, Helena Bonham Carter who I’d love to spend a lost weekend with and Meatloaf! Not forgettting Brad Pitt ofcourse, but he looked lame holding what looked like a bar of soap on the cover.
Needless to say, from the first moment my jaw slackened into an open mouthed 2 hour +3 rollarcoaster ride! I’m already breaking the first rule of Fight Club….
Off topic in the comment section..but
Someone who’s career was greatly changed by the war? Johnny Pesky. 600+ more hits, maybe 3 more top 5 MVP finishes..
Craps – It’s the only game (I know of) in the casnio where the house doesn’t control the action. The other players roll, so you can’t get a hot dealer, etc. Plus, there’s NOTHING more fun in a casino than when a roller gets hot because EVERYONE wins! Sure, it’s fun when YOU hit a blackjack but then the guy sitting next to you is a little jealous becuse he only got dealt a 16… In Craps, when the roller is hot, the whole table is raking it in. Short of hitting one of those mythical big slot-pots, it’s the most fun you can have in a casino.
0-16?? The rule is, you want the disaster to be big enough to force significant changes, but not so big that it can’t be lived down 10 years later. Problem is, I think Lions fan feel like 1-15 isn’t bad enough.
Oh, and PLEASE tell us about the waitresses!!
My favorite story about Pete Reiser is that Leo Durocher thought Willie Mays “might” have been a better player. And Durocher managed them both.
I’m late to the commenting party but regarding the Lions “perfect” record, the fans definitely don’t want that despite what has been posted here.
I see only two reasons to want your team to run the table, so to speak: 1. To get the coach or GM fired (already happened) and 2. To secure a specific top draft pick. I don’t see anybody in college right now who could help them in all the areas they need. I don’t think the Lions fans want ignominy just to land Tim Tebow.
As a Colts fan, I followed three teams that came fairly close and could have gone winless: ‘86 (who started 0-13), ‘91 (1-15 and the worst team I have ever seen) and ‘97 (who started 0-10). In ‘97 we fans were openly rooting against the team and not just because we wanted Lindy Infante fired but because we wanted a certain QB out of Tennessee or, failing him, another can’t miss gunslinger out of Washington State.
I had picked up Cool Runnings for my kids to watch, which they strenuously resisted. When they finally did watch it, it was a +4 for each of them. +4 times 4 kids and a +2 for me makes it a staggering +18.
If the Lions go 0-16, will their fans be like Brian Kingman and pathetically cling to that negative piece of history? How sad it was that it was that important for him to be the last player to lose 20 games and to openly root against anyone challenging that mark.
Can we get some of the SABR folks to calculate Stars Over Replacement Movie?
I see the other Jake has attempted to clarify his identity … alas, nope, guess where I’m from.
Clearly I need a handle.
My wife is a big George Clooney fan and we went to see Leatherheads. I figured it was about football and a comedy, so at worst it would keep my interest and be a few laughs. It was the most painfully boring movie I’ve sat through in many years. I turned Soup Nazi on my wife and decreed that George Clooney lost the right to entertain our family for one month after that movie (no watching him in cable movies, etc – first time I ever even thought of such a thing), and she agreed since she hated the movie even more than I did.
As an aside, Joe, I loved the paragraph in the SI article about JJ putz the “most interesting” name. Had me LOLing.
“I’m not a particularly big Burnett fan but we all know he has dominant stuff — and if they get him he will probably the best strikeout starter the Yankees have had since David Cone more than a decade ago”
I don’t know, once upon a time Randy Johnson was pretty good strikeout pitcher as a Yankee starter
[...] abut the Dark Knight) and only get a three star movie… well that is minus one experience. (Click here to see his blog article. You will have to scroll down about halfway, begins with “Against my better judgment, I [...]
I Hate the Farnsworth signing also. It is the type of move the Yankees could make & get away with, but not with our type of payroll. He reminds me of Relievers of the past (Affeldt, Macdougal, Burgos etc.) with one good pitch and a flat, high fastball. Scenario: Royals up by 1 in the 8th. Farnsworth comes in. Strikes out first batter, Walks second batter, strikes out third batter, walks fourth batter (Soria starts to warm up), Gives up 3 run Homer to 5th batter, head whipping around to watch the ball hit the fountains. Royals lose by two. Hillman says Farnsworth had great stuff and was almost unhittable-he just made one bad pitch. He runs him out there again the next night with a 1 run lead. On the 3rd night, Soria pitches a mop up inning in a game we are losing just to get some work in.