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135 Comments on “My MVP Ballot (Finally)”

1. 
   1: Jason Lukehart said at 11:38 am on November 25th, 2008:

   joe, i hope this is the kind of ‘correction’ you’re okay having someone point out:

   when listing the teammates who should have and actually did win MVPs, you start out by listing rose, THEN morgan… garvey, THEN wynn. but next you list trammell, THEN hernandez… boggs, THEN clemens. do you see what i mean? you start out by listing the actual MVP and then the deserving guy, but then switch to vice versa. the context clues usually make clear which guy actually won and which guy you believe deserved to, and most of us likely know that info anyway, but i would wager that you intended (and would prefer) to be consistent so as not to confuse any readers about which is which.

   keep up all the great work, i wish you and yours a very happy thanksgiving.

2. 
   2: Dave said at 11:47 am on November 25th, 2008:

   Joe, as you alluded to in an earlier post, the vote always goes to the guy with the best story. In this year with no run away performances, Pedroia had the best story–he’s pint-sized. To a lesser degree, I think this applies to Tim Lincecum. Even though he’s 5′11″, he’s also viewed as small.

   At least with Pedroia, he’s a little guy who can actually hit, and not a pint-sized scrapper like David Eckstein who’s adored for his “grit” and “determination.”

   On that note, I’m fascinated by the point you raised about guys like Eckstein being over-valued and guys like Alomar and Trammell being under-valued. Weird baseball paradox.

3. 
   3: Bill said at 11:47 am on November 25th, 2008:

   At least Lincecum over Santana is debatable, unlike Colon over Santana in 2005…so, really, we might be looking at a guy who deserved four Cy Youngs in five years. It would look more impressive if he had the offense (with the Twins) and bullpen (with the Mets) to put up something gaudy like 25-3 one of those years, but still. That guy is good.

4. 
   4: Jerk Store said at 11:50 am on November 25th, 2008:

   Joe, Lee & Halladay finished 1,2 in VORP in the AL and deserved better than they got from all MVP voters.

   Lee was the best player in the AL this year. Pitcher or not.

5. 
   5: jim said at 11:51 am on November 25th, 2008:

   Regarding the NL Cy Young, I don’t really think there was a wrong choice as long as you picked either Lincecum or Santana. Both of them had excellent years. Lincecum had to pitch for an awful team and Santana had to pitch in front of an awful bullpen. The only problem I have is with the voters who picked Webb anywhere in their top 3. I would have gone 1. Lincecum (and I’m a Mets fan) 2. Santana 3. Lidge. Webb would have been about 5th or 6th on my list.

6. 
   6: Steve Buffum said at 11:52 am on November 25th, 2008:

   For what it’s worth, and granted this is from a guy who honked Cliff Lee starting with The Trade and even sacrificed calling him my Favorite Player for superstitious purposes (which, I might add, worked swimmingly: my announced Favorite Player, Justin Verlander, did not do so well), Baseball Prospectus lists Cliff Lee’s VORP at 76.5. I understand that hitting VORP and pitching VORP are still imperfectly calibrated, but I think Lee should be added to the VORP list.

   (For completeness’ sake, Roy Halladay’s VORP is 70.6, and there are other starting pitchers who would make your list as well. But I am a Lee honk, not any of those other guys.)

   While I’m here, I still dare you to compare the Chiefs and Browns from a head coaching / degree of disappointment level.

7. 
   7: Tyler said at 11:52 am on November 25th, 2008:

   Great job as usual, Joe. As much as I devour any thoughts on the NL MVP because Pujols is my favorite player, the AL MVP race really was much more interesting. I can’t remember a year where I’ve been less sure of who I’d vote for MVP and really I don’t see how any reasonable voter could come out and say their choice is appreciably better than a number of other choices. I do agree that it seems crazy that Mourneau would be considered more valuable than Mauer.

   You make a great point about how some players are underrated when it would seem to make sense that they’d be overrated (i.e. good middle infielders). Johan seems to me to fall into that category too; he pitches in New York, he is a well-known name with a strong history, he had a compelling story (coming over from the Twins in a rumour-drenched trade, fighting valiantly against the Mets tragic, seemingly inevitable collapse under the weight of a terrible bullpen and too many scrubs), and he had a signature performance at the end of the year. I’m actually more surprised that Lincecum finished above Santana than I am that Webb did (although Webb winning the Cy Young would have sent me into a fit not seen since I last read that Howard should have been MVP).

8. 
   8: Chad said at 11:53 am on November 25th, 2008:

   You should go year by year and figure out how many Cy Youngs Santana should have one. My guess is he should be nearing 5-6.

9. 
   9: Daniel said at 11:53 am on November 25th, 2008:

   I don’t think Santana got jobbed. Here are some reasons why:

   1. Isn’t a strikeout the BEST thing a pitcher can do? Doing that many more times than another pitcher is a big deal.
   2. Isn’t ERA+ a better measure than just ERA? If Lincecum was better in ERA+, that means more than Santana being better in ERA, right?
   3. Lincecum gave up 2 less unearned runs, making their Run Averages basically the same.
   4. Lincecum pitched in front of the 23rd best defense in the majors while Santana pitched in front of the 6th best (according to defensive efficiency at Baseball Prospectus).

   They were both very good, and I would not have complained if Santana had won, but I don’t think you can definitively say he was the better pitcher when he only pitched 7 more innings than Lincecum. If he’d pitched 20 – 30 more innings, then you probably have a case.

10. 
    10: Shoeless_Mike said at 11:56 am on November 25th, 2008:

    Somewhat off-topic – how wrong is it that Ted Williams did not win the MVP five times instead of just twice? In 1941 dude hits .406, sets the non-steroid record for on-base % at something like .550 and loses to Dimaggio’s 56 game hitting streak. Worse than 41, in 42, the next freaking year Ted wins the Triple Crown – but not the MVP -it goes to second baseman Joe Gordon – who by all accounts sounds very gritty. Then Williams got jobbed by Joe D. again in 47 after Teddy wins the triple crown again… criminal.

11. 
    11: Steve Buffum said at 11:58 am on November 25th, 2008:

    I meant to point out that I would rather read Joe spraying prose full blast from a fire hose than just about anyone else in a carefully-edited ninth-draft crystalline piece. The fact that you can be so readable, entertaining, and thought-provoking without the filters of “cleaning” is one of the great gifts of The Interwebs.

12. 
    12: JOAKIMSORIA said at 11:58 am on November 25th, 2008:

    “The Royals have Joakim Soria, who appears to be a 24-year-old version of Mariano Rivera — unless they decide to try him a starter, which I believe more and more they should.”

    YES! Joe, please write this in the Star every day for the rest of the off-season.

    With Greinke’s future more and more uncertain, 2009 and 2010 may be our window to make the playoffs.

    Greinke. Soria. Meche.
    Hudson. Mulder. Zito.
    Glavine. Smoltz. Maddux.

    Three excellent starters can take a weak/average offense to the post-season. This rotation may not include Lowe and Sabathia, but it may be good enough to win 89 games and take the Central.

    Use the power of your mighty pen Joe! Write it. Then Write it Again!

13. 
    13: Mike said at 12:00 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Happy Thanksgiving, Joe.

14. 
    14: Rob V. said at 12:00 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    THAT’s the post I’ve been waiting for. The AL MVP race was odd this year, with no standouts. I found it compelling because of all the different variables you needed to consider to make some useful distinctions. I’ve always been a fan of considering replaceability, and that’s a big part of why I think Mauer was the best choice. It’s also a factor that should give Youkilis the edge over Pedroia. As a first baseman, sure, you can find others to put up big numbers. But how about as a great fielding first baseman who can play a strong third base, as Youkilis did this year. That’s value. I think these distinctions matter in the game more than they’re recognized. And I think you can make them without lapsing into the scrappiness, etc. trap.

    Happy Thanksgiving Joe (and fellow Joe fans)

15. 
    15: Jason Lukehart said at 12:01 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    i think that by august, for many voters the race had been turned into LINCECUM VS WEBB, and when lincecum pitched so much better than webb down the stretch, he won himself the award, while webb had to settle for second. santana pitched better than anyone down the stretch, but wasn’t on a lot of people’s radar, even if –as the best pitcher in baseball the last five years AND pitching in new york– that’s hard to believe. this is another case of there being a STORY, in this case it was the two pitchers out west. i believe many voters were unwilling to drastically change the script they’d been following for months and consider an entirely different option.

16. 
    16: Cooper Nielson said at 12:03 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Lincecum vs. Santana is close, but I love Lincecum, so here are some additional arguments (besides strikeouts and wins — and remember, the strikeout difference was pretty big):

    In roughly the same amount of innings (7.1 more for Santana):

    Unearned runs: Santana gave up 8, Lincecum 6.
    Home runs: Santana gave up 23, Lincecum only 11(!)
    AVG against: .233 for Santana, .221 for Lincecum
    OPS against: .648 for Santana, .612 for Lincecum

    So by many standards, Lincecum appears to be the more “dominating” pitcher — he’s harder to make contact against, he’s harder to hit hard.

    Considering their IP and ERA (and RA) were virtually identical, I could see giving the Cy Young to the pitcher who apparently did more of the heavy lifting himself.

    Both were great candidates.

17. 
    17: Grunthos said at 12:07 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Eckersley’s luck, in coming along as a dominant closer right when he did, for the team that he did, has been dissected elsewhere. He slid right into that moment when we had all gotten accustomed to the Save, but before we all got accustomed to what a stupid stat it is. And for those few seasons, he *was* god-awfully dominant. The traditional stat lines were obscene, especially coming right on the heels of the first real offensive explosion since the 50’s.

    It’s kind of the same thing as Nadia Comeneci. In the 10-15 years before Montreal, the Olympics had been introduced to everyone through live television, and in Munich Olga Korbut had pushed gymnastics up to a strong narrative position. Everyone was educated about the concept of the 10 point grading scale, and had a sense that Korbut had been special. Now, here comes Nadia, and BAM! “Perfection!” Not that Nadia wasn’t an excellent gymnast… but do you think she was doing significantly better gymnastics 30 years ago than those Chinese mites are doing today? People were drawn into the narrative by the statistical scale, the sense that the unsurpassable was happening. It was a truth for that moment only, and the gymnastics people had to move pretty quickly to recalibrate the judging standards afterwards. But it left an impression with everyone… and so Nadia is still a legend.

    When I pose the question to myself, “Who would I take to the mound with the game on the line (closer division)”, the Eck is still the first guy into my mind. Not Rivera. Not Sutter or Gossage. I agree that he doesn’t deserve that particular aura, although he’s a legit Hall member. But it’s there. It’s the kind of thing that screws up Hall of Fame arguments for decades after, where people who lived through the performance and were emotionally affected by it legitimately incorporate that effect into their judgment about the player, while later observers look at the same performance and go, yeah, that’s nice, but why is it different from these other half-dozen examples? They didn’t live it. That’s the difference. Neither judgment is “right,” but they are both valid.

18. 
    18: CharlesH said at 12:13 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    “If you think I’m pretty obsessed about this blog you can only imagine how much sleep I lost trying to come up with my MVP ballot.”

    This both why I read this blog, and why only people like you should be voting for Cy Youngs and MVPs. Too many voters look at, say, Brandon Webb’s wins, or Ryan Howard’s RBIs as the most telling indicators of performance, and I suspect don’t at all obsess about their votes.

    Your obession with this blog and with your vote shows. Brilliantly.

19. 
    19: Joe K. said at 12:14 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Joakim,

    Don’t forget:

    Shields. Kazmir. Garza.

20. 
    20: Daniel said at 12:16 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    My previous post about Lincecum vs. Santana wound up sounding snarkier than I meant it to, so sorry about that. My main point was that I think you could make a legitimate case for either one deserving the Cy Young. And since you can make a legitimate case for either one, I don’t think Santana got jobbed.

    There may be some advanced metrics I have not seen that put Santana well ahead of Lincecum, but unless that’s the case, I just don’t think that either of them is so far ahead of the other that you could say they got “jobbed.”

    Keep up the great work Joe! Happy Thanksgiving!

21. 
    21: Tyler said at 12:24 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    As much as I love Tiny Tim, I think it is important to look at the context of their pitching performance. By that I mean their ballparks and their opponents. Pac Bell (or whatever name it goes by these days) is more of a pitcher’s park than Shea, right? (Forgive me for not knowing if this is true or not, I look forward to being corrected if I’m wrong). Also because of the divisions they pitch in you’d think that Lincecum gained an advantage by facing the putrid offenses of San Diego and Arizona more often (too bad he couldn’t face his own team) as well as pitching in Petco and Chavez Ravine (heavy pitcher’s parks if I’m not mistaken), while Satana was facing the Phillies’ and to a lesser extent the Marlins and Braves (let’s ignore Washington for a second). I’m not saying for sure that these factors swing it to Johan, just that it should be considered. I’m blanking on what exactly ERA+ ecompasses but doesn’t it include some (or all) or these factors? If so I’d say that their ERA+’s being so close would seem to indicate to me that they were basically equally dominant with those contexts removed. Obviously, I’m not saying I have the answers, just that these questions should be asked (and I’m sure I’ve probably seen the answers but I’ve misplaced them in the plethora of trivial awards minutiae floating in my head).

    I will say that the defensive difference between the two teams is the strongest case I can see for putting Lincecum above Santana.

22. 
    22: J said at 12:25 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Happy Thanksgiving to Joe and all.

    The 2003 AL MVP race was a strange one too, with people like Shannon Stewart getting support. A-Rod won, even though he was on a bad Texas team, because he got a lot of second and third place votes because he had the best season by the numbers, and the voters couldn’t agree on who the preferred candidate was.

    As for Santana, (I’m guessing the voters thought) he was running against himself and his own incredible career. The standards for him were higher than they were for Lincecum, who was a great story and who did have a terrific season.

23. 
    23: Shoeless_Mike said at 12:36 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    “A-Rod won, even though he was on a bad Texas team, because he got a lot of second and third place votes because he had the best season by the numbers, and the voters couldn’t agree on who the preferred candidate was.”

    That was how Lincoln got elected the first time. I knew there was another reason I loved A-Rod.

24. 
    24: Brent said at 12:42 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Santana might also be suffering from the same thing that A-Rod’s MVP candidacy suffered from this year: Comparison to himself.

    Sure A-Rod put up good numbers this year, probably better than anyone else’s . . . . but it is about the 6th best season he ever had. We cannot really make him the MVP when he clearly didn’t meet his own previously established high standards.

    Similarly, Santana’s year doesn’t stack up that well against his own prior seasons and, therefore, his season gets downgraded.

25. 
    25: Vin said at 12:44 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    This post got me thinking about how I’d select an MVP, were I able to do so…I came up with five ground rules that address issues that come up year after year (which, I agree, is part of the fun):

    1. While I’d generally prefer to give the award to players on contenders, I’d make no distinction between contending teams and playoff teams.
    2. That said, players on non-contending teams are by no means ineligible, though they may be held to a somewhat higher standard.
    3. Things like memorable moments, late-season heroics and good stories are acceptable as tiebreakers and tiebreakers only. They should not be considered until such a need arises.
    4. Pitchers shouldn’t win except in historically dominant seasons.
    5. RBIs don’t matter.

    It’s kind of a mix of the traditional way of looking at things and the sabermetric way, I’d guess…but that sums it up. Not that it matters, seeing as I don’t vote…

26. 
    26: Gate said at 12:45 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Regarding the Pedroia v. Youk debate. I think it helps that you didn’t watch the Sox everyday. I voted for Pedroia for MVP for the online awards, but I think my vote was unduly influenced by watching the games everyday. Because Pedroia had such a great last two months (hit 353 with 584 slg by my quick calculations) it was fresh in my mind that he seemed to be carrying the red sox into the playoffs, when Youk did more over the course of the season to get the sox there. Both had great seasons, but I think you probably got it right.

    It would be interesting: if Drew had missed the first month of the season with back trouble and then had his 337/462/848 month in Sept. instead of June he probably would have gotten a lot of MVP buzz…or he would have if he wasn’t JD Drew.

    Happy Thanksgiving

27. 
    27: MSS said at 12:46 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Steve B.,

    What is a “honk” and where does that come from? It seems like it means the same thing as wonk — in which case, I sort of wonder why you’re picking the word that makes me think of granddad trumpeting boogers into a hanky, or geese, or Harpo Marx, instead of the neutral word that doesn’t seem like it would instantly depreciate the person in question for the audience. Not that it matters, but it’s really odd.

    GRUNTHOS,

    Never thought I’d see an argument made by analogizing baseball closers and eastern European women’s gymnastics, but that was pretty awesome.

28. 
    28: Steve B said at 12:49 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    I want to add something to the Mauer-Morneau debate. I’ve watched nearly every game over their careers, I grew up in Saint Paul a year younger than Joe Mauer, hearing about him all the time before we were both even allowed to drive. I think Mauer has the best swing I’ve ever seen. It is so balanced, so consistent, so…pretty. His eye and discipline at the plate are incredible. With all that said, if the game was on the line and all I needed was a single to knock runners in from 2nd and 3rd to win. I’d want Justin Morneau at the plate.

    I know it’s illogical. I know the stats disagree with me, but it seems like Morneau is always coming up with a tying hit, or a hit that gives the Twins a lead. Or a big, bases-clearing, 3-run double. I know he’s getting those opportunities because Mauer is always getting on in front of him. Logically, I can see that it seems like Morneau is always getting those hits because he has the most at bats with runners on in the league. But I still feel more confident with Morneau in a big situation than Mauer.

    A lot of it has to do with the feeling that Morneau is maximizing his potential while Mauer isn’t. Because of Joe’s talent’s, we wish he would do more. We see a guy that has arguably the best eye in baseball, coupled with arguably the best swing in baseball, coupled with arguably the most patience in baseball, coupled with a large, 6′5″ 230 pound body…and we want him to do more. We want him to hit 30 or 40 home runs. We want to see opposing pitchers treat him like Barry Bonds.

    Logically, we know he’s the better player. But it’s tough to use numbers to show you something that your eye’s don’t pick up.

    Either way, I still think the Twins have the best 3-4 combination in the league.

29. 
    29: Aaron said at 12:51 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    First of all, I completely agree that great all-around players like Alomar and Trammel are criminally underrated, and the Trammel point in particular serves to underscore the lasting damage that the sometimes horrendous voting patterns in these awards do to baseball. Fortunately that wasn’t the case for the most part this year. I’m in the pro-Mauer camp as well but I think the problem is that the voters are showing an utter inability to correctly value the fact that Joe Mauer is crazy good AND he plays catcher.

    A couple other interesting things…

    Santana’s FIP was almost a full run above his actual ERA (in part due to his league leading 82.6% strand rate) and he had the greatest negative difference between ERA and FIP in the the NL. Lincecum meanwhile led the NL in FIP that was only slightly lower than his actual ERA.

30. 
    30: Mike Williams said at 12:54 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Joe, I am grateful to know that there is at least 1 MVP voter who cares enough to really, actually, get down and dirty and analyze every aspect of his vote. Whether others agree or disagree with you is irrelevant, IMHO, because if ALL the other voters took their duty as seriously as you apparently do, most of the past injustices would most likely not have occured.

    Unfortunately, I think many of the MVP voters DON’T take their responsiblility seriously enough. (Please tell me I’m wrong).

31. 
    31: denopac said at 1:05 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Tyler — as long as you asked, ESPN lists AT&T Park’s park factor in 2008 as 1.045, which is favorable to the hitter (6th in NL). Shea’s was 0.946 (11th in NL).

32. 
    32: Dusty Pagoda said at 1:19 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    One interesting thing about Johan is that his 1st half, as is his custom, was nothing special. Lincecum or Volquez would have almost certainly won the Cy Young, had the voting been done at the All-Star break, and a strong case could have been made for Haren, Sheets, etc.

    1st half stats (W-L, ERA, WHIP, K):
    12-3, 2.29, 1.25, 126 (Volquez)
    7-5, 2.47, 1.13, 93 (Peavy)
    11-2, 2.57, 1.25, 135 (Lincecum)
    8-5, 2.72, 0.96, 112 (Haren)
    8-7, 2.84, 1.20, 114 (Johan)
    10-3, 2.85, 1.11, 108 (Sheets)

    Johan’s Cy Young candidacy really relied on the strength of his 2nd half numbers, which, as usual, were extremely strong. Yet, Sabathia and Oswalt each had stronger 2nd halves.

    2nd half stats (W-L, ERA, WHIP, K):
    9-2, 1.56, 0.97, 114 (C.C.)
    8-0, 2.17, 1.10, 92 (Johan)
    10-2, 2.24, 0.92, 71 (Oswalt)
    7-3, 2.38, 1.00, 59 (Lowe)
    7-2, 2.52, 1.26, 83 (Dempster)
    7-3, 2.68, 1.07, 130 (Lincecum)

    The major differences between Johan’s 1st and 2nd halves was that the Mets stopped losing games behind him, and his ERA dropped.
    The major difference between Lincecum’s 1st and 2nd halves was that his K/9 rate went up by almost 3

    Johan’s ERA decreased by .67, Lincecum’s increased by .11
    Johan’s WHIP decreased by .10, Lincecums’ decreased by .18
    Johan’s K/9 rate decreased from 8.1 to 7.7, Lincecum’s increased from 9.4 to over 12 (!!)

    1st/2nd half splits (W-L, ERA, WHIP, K/9, HR allowed):
    11-2, 2.57, 1.25, 9.4, 7 (Lincecum)
    7-3, 2.68, 1.07, 12.0, 4

    8-7, 2.84, 1.20, 8.1, 14 (Johan)
    8-0, 2.17, 1.10, 7.7, 9

    In conclusion…Oswalt had an amazing 2nd half and no one even noticed.

33. 
    33: dylan said at 1:20 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Love you love your show Joe.

    Want to talk about travesties? Want to talk about pain? How about Mike Macfarlane losing the 1993 Royals player of the year award to Greg Gagne? He also probably should have won it in 1996 as well.
    DOUBLE SNUB for MAC

34. 
    34: Grunthos said at 1:20 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    MSS,

    Not sure why Nadia popped into my mind there, but it does make the point pretty sharply.

35. 
    35: Tampa Mike said at 1:23 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    I have to disagree about Soria, he needs to stay as the closer. It’s been so long since the Royals have actually had a viable closer and it was so nice this year to have that security at the end of games. The Mexicutioner is perfect for him.

    I have to wonder about his durability as a starter. I remember him missing over a week in the middle of the season because of exhaustion. Hillman would never bring him in as things were falling apart in the 8th because he didn’t want to wear Soria out.

    If you move Soria to the rotation, who becomes the closer? Peralta? Tejada? Gobble? I think having a good closer did a lot for the psyche of the team. There is nothing worse than blowing a lead in the 9th and losing over and over and over.

36. 
    36: Dusty Pagoda said at 1:27 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    WPA by month Lincecum/Johan

    0.90/0.54
    0.44/0.51
    1.12/-0.11
    0.25/0.73
    1.69/1.03
    0.19/1.29

37. 
    37: TD said at 1:29 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    I think Morneau won MVP in 2006 with a kick of sorts – the team outright stunk early and came on at the end Rockies-style to beat the Tigers by a game for the division. I remember there was a stretch of maybe 30 games in late August into September where it seemed Morneau had monster hits in every game – the perfectly timed two-run double here, the driven single that scored the runner from first there. It was a classic Everyone Follow Me stretch and I think it got him the hardware.

38. 
    38: Shark said at 1:39 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    I watched some or all of 90% of the Red Sox games this year and I always felt Youk was the most valuable on the team. They wouldn’t have survived the loss of Manny, Lowell and Papi’s power without him. Also his fist fight with Manny was the first real public indication that the M/B/M thing might have entered a new realm of unacceptablitly. I think they could have overcome losing Pedey for awhile but not Kevin. He carried them both at the plate and in his defensive versatility. Also in that “intangible” factor…..Pedroia is gritty but Youk’s intensity is a little like KG’s on the Celtics.

39. 
    39: dylan said at 1:45 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Joe
    Love you love your show.
    Want to talk about tragedies? Want to talk about pain?

    How about the 1993 Royals Player of the Year snub of Mike Mac. Mike Mac was bested by Greg Gagne.

    He was also bettered by Tom Goodwin in 1996.

    DOUBLE SNUB for MAC

    How in the hell did Wally Joyner not win one at some point? That guy wore the Oakleys on the team year in an year out.

40. 
    40: Chris in Dallas said at 1:46 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    I think Santana not winning the NL Cy Young had a lot to do with expectations vs. results. Pretty much everyone expected him to waltz into the weaker league in a pitchers park and post a sub-2 ERA with 300 K’s to go along with 25 wins. When that didn’t happen (though Johan did have a very fine season), voters looked elsewhere. And I think Lincecum’s diminutive size and wacky delivery helped him out (much in the way it helped Pedroia). Not that any of these things should matter, but I think that they did matter in the final vote.

41. 
    41: Dave B. said at 1:49 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    I love your dissection of the MVP, and I find it amazing that, had I had a vote, I would have had Mauer in ‘06 and ‘08 as well but without the strong reasoning behind my choice. Thanks for validating my layman’s opinion.

42. 
    42: Bill said at 1:50 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Steve B. – where were those big hits of Morneau’s for all of September? If he just gets one hit with a ROB in that last week or so, there’s no need to play game 163. Meanwhile, Mauer kept plugging away (and actually got better). Morneau hit .243/.298/.398 for September, Mauer .365/.414/.490.

    It’s really time for my fellow Twins fans, at least, to disabuse themselves of the notion that Morneau is in any way better or more valuable or more “clutch” (cough) than Mauer. One is a nice player, a legit all-star, one of the four or five best first basemen in the majors, Kent Hrbek reincarnate. The other is an elite, top-three-or-four-at-ANY-position player, the runaway best catcher in the world right now, and has a good start on a Hall of Fame career. It’s like if Albert Pujols and Brian Roberts were on the same team, and Roberts kept getting all the MVP attention.

    Shoeless Mike – I actually think you can make a case for DiMaggio over Williams in ‘41. The difference between them with the bat is something like 25 runs (big difference between Fenway and the Yankee Stadium of those days), and DiMag was an all-time great CF while Williams was an average at best LF: it’s very possible DiMaggio was worth more than 25 runs over Williams in the field. Baseball Prospectus has DiMaggio ahead comfortably in WARP. But, yeah, he got jobbed in ‘42 and ‘47.

43. 
    43: Justin said at 1:52 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    I’ve said this about Pujols before, but it seems to be a trend: people just aren’t wowed by guys who are dominant year-in-year-out. For a guy like Santana, it’s probably easy for voters to look at the excellent stat line and then dismiss it and sort of say “well, let’s see what everyone else did.”

    On a semi-tangential note, Manny’s obviously one of the best hitters in history and has put up monster seasons. I was shocked to see that he’d never finished higher than third in MVP voting. He has two third-place finishes, two fourths, three sixths and a couple of ninths, with a couple more finishes way down the ballot. Thome’s never finished higher than fourth despite nine seasons of 150-or-higher OPS+ and an insanely underrated career.

    I’m among the many who feel you could have flipped a coin between Lincecum and Santana for Cy Young this year (I’d give Lidge my third-place vote). I’m not disappointed that Johan didn’t win, but it’s ridiculous that he didn’t come second and insane that he wasn’t even named on nine ballots.

    It’s similar to the AL vote, where I think Lee was a worthy winner, but Halladay was woefully underappreciated. In that case too, I think you could argue for Doc to be at worst 1A on the ballot. Sure, Lee had the eye-popping W-L and the better ERA, but he had a better WHIP, better K rate, better K/BB, H/9 and faced tougher competition (hitters Halladay faced combined for an OPS about 30 points higher, but he held them to a lower OPS against). He was left off of three voters’ ballots.

    The AL MVP race was tight, and I don’t think Pedroia is leaps and bounds worse than any of the other candidates. He wouldn’t have been my top pick, but this wasn’t a total injustice in my mind.

    In the category of guys-jobbed-by-teammates-for-MVP, I nominate the 2007 NL vote as another example. Rollins won, but I think the stronger case could have been made for Chase Utley (who admittedly lost ground when he missed a month with injury) or even Howard (who posted a .392 OBP and .584 SLG and OPSed over 100 points higher than Rollins). Not that I would have voted for either Utley or Howard last year, but I think either would have been better calls than Rollins.

44. 
    44: Steve Buffum said at 2:06 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    “Honk” sounds better than the more-colloquial “pimp.” It’s supposed to convey a certain degree of irrational exuberance, like thinking Raffy Betancourt or David Riske can close, or that really, if just given a chance, Jim Thome and Billy Butler would make perfectly adequate first basemen.

45. 
    45: Bellweather Johnson said at 2:13 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Boggs finishing ninth is more of a Job than any of the other votes listed.

    Even worse that he finished seventh in 1987 despite essentially duplicating his performance with an additional 100 points in SLG. Shoot, I’d have given him the award just for most High Life’s crushed between innings.

    If he would have been in a game-worn Devil Ray’s jersey at his HOF induction ceremony, I would have voted for him for President.

46. 
    46: dru said at 2:29 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    I’m a Red Sox fan, but I live in the midwest and I can’t watch the Sox as much as I’d like so take this with a large grain of salt. I personally felt that Youk was the MVP. He was just a monster all the time. I get why Pedroia got all the press, and he did have a fantastic season, but his candidacy always seemed like more a product of the scrappy factor. You just couldn’t have a reasonable conversation about the two guys respective merits because it always came back to the personality factor. I’m pretty psyched that a Red Sox player got the MVP, but I’ll never be convinced that Youk didn’t get a fair shot because of the media hype around “The Destroyah”.

    As for Cliff Lee for MVP, I just can’t see it anymore. After Pedro got jobbed in ‘99 I don’t know that I’ll ever be willing to consider a pitcher for MVP. It’s total sour grapes on my part, but if Pedro doesn’t get it there I don’t know that anyone ever should (and I’m well aware that his ‘00 was his best year). Completely irrational I know/

47. 
    47: Question Mark said at 2:30 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Trammell is even underrated amongst ‘underrated’ middle infielders. To wit, he didn’t get a sniff of a HOF vote but everyone pretty much agrees that Alomar will be an easy first-ballot inductee.

48. 
    48: john said at 2:46 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    lincecums last 15 starts didn’t even matter, the giants suck and had no chance of making the playoffs. Meanwhile in everyone of johans last 15 starts the season was on the line, and he knew if he didn’t go at least 7plus innings his bullpen would blow it. Justin morneau is not a bad fielder, watch some baseball joe. Hes in the top 4 a.l. Fielding 1st basemen. The reason minny fans love morneau is because he gets so many game winning hits. Check the stars, each year he’s near the top of the league. Joe Mauer is great and invaluable, but he misses a game a week and he is not clutch. For being so patient and having such a great swing he hits into too many double plays at important times. As for handeling the young pitching staff, watch the games, before about 80% of the pitches mauer looks to the dugout to see what pitch rick Anderson wants thrown. Don’t get me wrong I love mauer and he is the best catcher in MLB, but don’t hate on morneau when you don’t see all scoops he makes at 1st. And all the clutch hits he gets.

49. 
    49: Steve B said at 2:52 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    - Bill -

    I agree with you that Mauer is much better than Morneau. I tried to get that across in my post. The point of what I wrote was to show how our perceptions can become what they are.

    I know it’s impossible to quantify ‘clutchness,’ but that doesn’t change the fact that I can think of far more ‘memorable’ hits for Morneau than Mauer. Is it reflected in stats? No. But that’s what I, and so many others who watch them play daily, come away with.

    Yeah, Morneau stunk in September. But one month doesn’t make a player.

50. 
    50: Bill said at 3:06 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    I understand what you’re saying, Steve B. I don’t understand how people GET that perception (I watch almost all of the Twins games too, and unless we’re down N runs with 2 outs in the 9th and N-1 runners on, I’ll take Mauer up there over Morneau every single time), but, sure, just a perception. But if you know the perception is wrong, why would you STILL rather have Morneau up there? That’s what makes no sense. You know your perception is wrong, so change your perception.

    Sure, one month doesn’t make a player. But depending on what “clutch” stat you look at, Morneau and Mauer are roughly equal, or Mauer is better, for their careers. And if Morneau really does have a special clutchiness ability, wouldn’t we expect him to do something other than completely fall apart during the one stretch of games in his entire career that his team has needed him most (that being this past September)?

    You seem very reasonable. My frustration is with attitudes like John’s just above. And no, John, Morneau isn’t a good defensive first baseman. Looking at things in the best possible light for him, he’s average. Mauer hits better, was far more “clutch,” and provides and fields a far more important position better than Morneau fields his. And you can’t go penalizing a catcher for not being able to play every day, especially one who played more than almost every other catcher (and both played and showed up for each of the last 15 games of the year in a row, something you can’t say for Morneau…).

51. 
    51: SBG said at 3:10 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Twins fan here. You are right. Mauer was the choice over Morneau this year and in 2006.

    Here’s something you can take to the bank: “Catchers with .400 OBPs do not grow on trees.”

52. 
    52: Dan Rosenheck said at 3:14 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Alomar wasn’t close to the best player in the 1992 AL–he wasn’t even the best second baseman in the 1992 AL. That was one year when OPS+ really does tell the whole story: The Big Hurt played 160 games with a 174 OPS+. (McGwire was a similar hitter but missed a ton of time). No one at a skill position had a particularly big offensive year, and defense and baserunning don’t wind up affecting the calculus. Thomas was clearly the top position player. (Interestingly, I have the #2 guy as his teammate Raines, who had a year on the basepaths just as good as his big 80’s seasons and his finest fielding campaign as well). Carlos Baerga’s fielding was significantly better than Alomar’s that season, putting him ahead in the 2B rankings.

53. 
    53: Shoeless_Mike said at 3:18 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Mauer hit into 21 dp’s in 2008
    Morneau hit into 20 dp’s in 2008

    As far as clutchnicity – here are the combined #’s for Mauer and Morneau’s performance with RISP and in late inning situations (avg/obp/slg/gidp)

    Mauer 337/461/457/8
    Morneau 337/437/587/16

    So maybe Morneau is more clutchy? I dunno – I do know that Morneau grounded into twice as many double plays as Mauer did during “clutch” times…

    MM

    MM

54. 
    54: Bill said at 3:30 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Nah… Morneau was pretty gosh-darned clutchy, but Mauer was even clutchier.
    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=y&type=0&season=2008&month=0

55. 
    55: Alex said at 3:30 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    There are good reasons to put Youk ahead of Pedroa, but I don’t think that you made the case, Joe.

    1) You dismiss defense because you “kind of view them as a defensive team on the right side.” That’s lame, Joe. Just lame. Of course they are a defensive team. But one of them is a 1B and the other a 2B. It’s good to admit how you view them, but you should use that info to compensate for the error, not to dismiss it.

    2) You talk about replaceability earlier as being important to you, and then dismiss it here. Why or how? It’s not at all clear.

    3) I don’t know if you adjust for position in your examination of hitting. That’s what VORP is doing. Perhaps you kinda get at this with replaceability, but you wave it away here.

    Youk is a much better hitter. No question. If that’s why you have him above Pedroia, say so. If you think that Pedroia’s ability to play second, ability on the basepath, and the quality of his defensive play does not make up for Youk’s advantages at the plate, just say so. But don’t dismiss those differences as insignificant.

56. 
    56: Steve B said at 3:36 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    I think a big reason Twins fans are harder on Mauer than Morneau is the power thing. We didn’t have a real power threat for so long that we’re currently over-evaluating Morneau because of his power. While it’s currently good for a Major League first basement, it’s positively FANTASTIC for a Twins first basemen.

    Why don’t I change my perception? I have. I know Mauer’s better and I know the Twins have better odds with him at the plate in the situation I described in my first post. But I also know carrot sticks would have been a better snack choice for me this afternoon. I had a candybar. I wonder if a sugar rush is the food equivalent of an r.b.i…..

57. 
    57: Alex said at 4:04 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    As for Linecum and Santana.

    IP: 227 vs. 334 (3% to Santana)

    BB: 84 vs. 63 (25% to Santana)

    K: 265 vs. 206 (22% to Linecum)

    HR: 11 vs. 23 (52% to Linecum).

    What does this mean to me? It means that the BB and K about even out. I’d give at least a slight advantage to Licecum, as it’s about baserunners, right? That advantage must even out with the IP advantage for Licecum. (1 more BB per game, but 3 more K’s!)

    That leaves the HUGE difference in HR allowed. They are about even, except for that.

    What about wins, WHIP, and ERA+? These are all fairly close, which actually leads me to favor Linecum even more. If Santana had a better WHIP (1.148 vs. 1.172), that means that his defense did a better job for him than Linecum’s did for him. Linecum even had a better GB% (43.9% vs. 41.2%).

    Santana gave up a .269 average on balls hit in play, and Linecum gave up .291, despite the difference in GB%. Why was Santana’s WHIP better than Linecum? Defense and luck.

    Who pitched better?

    Linecum pitched a lot better, if you ask me. Santana was not jobbed. (Frankly, if Santana was just some other 2nd year pitcher, and not JOHAN SANTANA, we wouldn’t be asking this question.)

58. 
    58: Mike Williams said at 4:23 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    This doesn’t fit the criteria (right team, wrong player) for MVP mistakes – but no one will EVER convince me that George Brett wasn’t the MVP in 85 instead of Mattingly.

    That was definitely early East Coast Bias in action – even before that term was even coined.

59. 
    59: stos said at 4:36 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    It looked like a case of can’t really go too wrong with the AL MVP this year. No one had a super season so it’s not like someone got totally snubbed. I’d have gone Mauer, too, just for being a superb player at a position that’s always seemingly thin. The writers’ obsession with Morneau should remind us all that there are still enough voters out there that haven’t gotten past the old lovin’ the RBI vibe we all know and love from the past.

    As for Santana, he got hosed, but not heinously. As a Mets fan, I’d have thought it sweet if he had taken it home in his first year, but the Mets are generally shunned when it comes to awards votings. Lincecum was awesome, too, so once again, it’s not like someone was robbed. Just an odd awards year, really.

60. 
    60: Mark said at 5:07 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    “This is a topic for another time, but it’s so strange to me how OVERRATED scrappy middle infielders can be and how UNDERRATED great middle infielders can be. One of the weirdest parts of the game.”

    I think many old-school writers like to identify and champion the scrappy player, without the stats, to show that they “understand” the little things in the game and how “important” they are. These writers and announcers get to show their “special knowledge.” The great middle infielders are just lesser (i.e., inferior) versions of the big boppers that they usually vote for, all things considered.

    It’s ironic, because a guy like Utley (not even in the top 10 in the MVP vote) is one of the best all-around players in the game and clearly had a better season than Howard–but he’ll never win an MVP award unless his team gets to the playoff and no slugging first baseman or corner outfielder has a big season.

    I’m a Sox fan, but there’s no way I’d even pick Pedroia in the first round of a draft of all major leaguers. The stars had to align for him to win an MVP.

    Thanks for your blog, Joe. Very enjoyable.

61. 
    61: Mark said at 5:08 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    I didn’t mean that the great middle infielders “are” lesser versions of the traditional sluggers–only that the writers seem to view them that way.

62. 
    62: David Wintheiser said at 6:13 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Joe,

    Those people who say they follow the Twins and think Morneau is more valuable than Mauer? They’re silly.

    I have nothing to add to the Mauer analysis, but here’s something to help illustrate Bill’s point above:

    Justin Morneau, 2006 – 34 HR, .934 OPS
    Kent Hrbek, 1987 – 34 HR, .934 OPS

    Justin Morneau, 2008 – 23 HR, .300/873 (BA/OPS)
    Kent Hrbek, 1982 – 23 HR, .301/848

    Justin Morneau, 2007 – 31 HR, .271/835
    Kent Hrbek, 1986 – 29 HR, .267/831

    Justin Morneau, 2005 – 22 HR, 79 RBI
    Kent Hrbek, 1990 – 22 HR, 79 RBI

    Yes, I’m cherry-picking a bit, but the numbers really aren’t that dissimilar once you account for era.

    Except for that last comparison, Morneau generally has more RBI than Hrbek in a given season, because Morneau is hitting behind guys like Joe Mauer, while Hrbek was hitting mainly behind Kirby Puckett. That may not sound like a huge difference at first blush, but Puckett’s career OBP is just .360 despite a career BA of .318, because dude seldom took a walk. Hrbek’s career OBP is actually higher than Puckett’s (.367) despite Hrbek being over 35 points behind Puckett in career batting average (.282). Mauer, meanwhile, has a current career OBP of .399.

    I’m not trying to knock either Morneau or Hrbek; Hrbek was a very good and valuable player, and Morneau looks very similar to this point in his career. But the people who look and say that Morneau is more special than Mauer…well, they’re just silly.

63. 
    63: Jason Lukehart said at 6:15 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    santana and lincecum were an incredibly tight race by any reasonable standard. i’d have voted for santana, but can’t really claim lincecum was a BAD choice. to me, the big mystery is how so many voters mangaged to wedge webb between the two of them on their ballot??? many people have managed to make and support a good case for lincecum over santana and for santana over lincecum, can anyone make the case for putting webb in the middle? the balloting implies that voters were choosing lincecum over webb in their final decision, perhaps having decided in august that those were the two candidates, never allowing themselves to consider johan as a viable option.

64. 
    64: Pat said at 6:19 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Happy Thanksgiving, Joe…I’m surprised that you didn’t have A-Rod ranked higher. It’s tough to statistically have him below #3 (behind Mauer and Pedroia). I hate A-Rod, but it’s funny how little you hear about Youk and Pedroia’s advantage of being a RH hitter in Fenway. If you traded A-Rod for Youk, do the Yanks win 89 games?

65. 
    65: Matt said at 6:36 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    I respect how much you thought about it. I highly disagree with a few things because I think Cliff Lee and Doc Halladay should be in the top 10, but I still respect the analysis. We did, however, come to the same conclusion on #1 in the AL.

66. 
    66: Brad said at 6:47 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Grady Sizemore at 6? Really, Joe?? He was certainly one of the best two or three playes in the AL when you consider his position (just like Mauer). I know that you know this. So why did you have him at 6 — and behind the overrated Moreneau. Yeah, Morenau was probably the better hitter but Sizemore plays great defense in centerfield and is a very good baserunner. When you consider that he had a much better year than Moerneau (and Quentin, too). I know Cleveland didn’t have a great year but you’re smart enough to know that doesn’t matter.

    Grady should be in the top 3. No debate about that. The MVP is either Mauer or Sizemore, with possibly Youkilis or Pedroia in the discussion also.

67. 
    67: john said at 7:20 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    where do you get the idea morneau cant field? Most these posts sound like espn bull to me. Take morneau and his 130 RBI off the twins and where are the twins? Game winning hits are a great way to measure “clutchiness”. Morneau has twice as many as mauer, and had more than big Papi in 06′ the most clutch red sox player ever, according to his teamates and the media. I’m not even sure I like morneau better but I’m sick of unimformed people making claims based on stuff they read, not what they actually see. As for comparing hrbek to morneau, what’d the point? Hrby played 20 years ago when baseball wasn’t so specialized with all the relief pitchers. If Mauer is so important, how can gardy justify not having Mauer in the lineup everyday? He makes sure morneau is dh in the 5 games he’s not at 1st base. If justin got half the time off than sideburns gets maybe he wouldn’t be so worn down in sep. Pudge and varitek played 150 plus games a year in their prime. Mayer gets babied cause hes so fragile. Morneau fielding pct was almost as good as pena and youkilis. I suppose they can’t field either. Just because you heard he couldn’t field 4 years ago doesn’t mean he didn’t improve. How did he get gold glove votes, I guess players and coaches don’t know good fielding.

68. 
    68: David in Toledo said at 7:28 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    So on the Hall of Thanksgiving Fame menu, the only items we’re having this year are turkey, stuffing, and mashed potatoes. All over 75%. I think we needed 10 choices, like the rules give to the BBWAA. Even then, we might go hungry or get into fistfights about our selections.

    Next year, we have a chance to induct pumpkin and/or pecan pie, cranberry, corn, green beans, yams, biscuits, ham (barely), and something weird (it may prove tough to get agreement on that one). Oh, and whatever shows up as a first-time eligible. Lobster?

    Everything else is banished, with less than 5% of the vote. As people have been saying for years, there’s something wrong with this system.

69. 
    69: Larko said at 7:33 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Thinking about the 2 MVP votes some more, here’s a genuine question. Can someone point me to a defense of the specific values assigned to different types of hits in calculating slugging percentage (SLUG)? What I mean is, the way you calculate SLUG is by taking…

    ((singles x 1) + (doubles x 2) + (triples x 3) + (home runs x 4))/AB.

    But why these exact values: 1, 2, 3, 4? I mean, of course I get the “logic” of it: a triple is a 3-base-hit, so 3 points, etc. But offhand, it seems highly plausible there’s increasing marginal utility for each type of hit (with the possible exception of triples). In other words, I suspect the “real value” of a home run is more than 4 times the value of a single, more than 2 times the value of a double, and so on. To further illustrate the idea, imagine I define a new statistics, SLUG*, calculated as follows…

    ((singles x 1) + (doubles x 2.2) + (triple x 3.2) + (home runs x 4.4))/AB.

    SLUG* values home runs comparatively more than SLUG does, and so pure home run hitters will do comparatively better on SLUG* than they do on SLUG. So, for instance, the difference between Pedroia and Youkilis is much greater according to SLUG* than according to SLUG, given that Youkilis is more of a home run hitter. Thus, if we used SLUG* instead of SLUG, it could have real consequences: Youkilis might be the MVP right now instead of Pedroia.

    So then, my question in a way it his: why do we use SLUG rather than SLUG*, or yet some other statistic with slightly different values? Why do we use the SLUG values rather than something else?

    Again, this is meant as a genuine question. If someone could point me to a real defense of slugging percentage as it currently is defined, I would very much appreciate it.

70. 
    70: john said at 7:37 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    who were the catchers on the world series teams and who were the 1st basemen? Catchers are important but so are guys who routinly change games with one swing. I don’t even like the big power guys winning the MVP but you have to respect how they uplift their teams. Guys rally around big guys. It gives guys hope to know when they are down by a few, a couple guy get on base and someone like longoria or manny can in any at bat put one in the seats. It affects the oppostion also, although the twins did a great job of rallying after getting all those bombs hit on them, except in the one game playoff

71. 
    71: Matt said at 7:51 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    John, as for the “not having him in every day” thing as opposed to Morneau, maybe (but not really maybe, I’m being sarcastic) it is because Mauer plays the most physically demanding position on the field, and that other guy, well, doesn’t. He plays 1B, not particularly well, and it is not a particularly hard position to play like, say, I don’t know CATCHER.

72. 
    72: Matt said at 7:53 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Larko,

    I feel you, have you looked into wOBA, from the book by Tango? It is a linear weights that deals with (roughly) what you mean.

73. 
    73: Dan Rosenheck said at 8:36 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Mike Williams, Rickey Henderson was the best player in the 1985 AL.

74. 
    74: Man in Black said at 8:49 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    No gravy? I am not coming to dinner. I would prefer a little pinot with the Thanksgiving dinner also.

75. 
    75: Shoeless_Mike said at 9:00 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Using the golden glove as criteria for measuring Morneau’s fielding ability is absurd. We are not basing any of our statistical analysis on feeling- I provided real #’s that proved that Mauer is as clutchy as Morneau – using plate appearances with runners in scoring position and late inning situations – the closest thing to a set of “clutch” metrics. Morneau is an average fielding first baseman using the criteria of zone range and range factor – fairly commonly accepted metrics for defense.

    People who decide who they like based on feelings are fine – I have no problems with that – until they assert that their feelings overrule what the real numbers actually say – and in this case the numbers clearly say that Morneau is no more clutchy than Mauer – and using one of your feeling stats – Morneau has actually been less clutchy based on the fact that he hit into more double plays with runners in scoring position and in late inning situations.

    MM

76. 
    76: jjf3 said at 9:17 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    Ignoring your post (after reading it, of course – you’re the best writer on the interwebs, much less a mere paper), and focusing on your poll – I WISH WISH WISH my (ITALIAN! should I defect? – to where?)) family would have spaghetti carbonara and lasagna for Thanksgiving…with a huge side of meatballs, please…

    Instead, we’ve been turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes and cranberry sauce since I was a kid – my Italian grandparents (bless their souls), decided to honor the “American” part of the holiday, rather than the truly gluttonous intent of it…

    Hell, I’d consider settling for stuffing my face with really good tamales at this point (too much time in Texas?) – but that’s more an Easter/Christmas thing…

77. 
    77: AlbaNate said at 9:43 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    I’m intrigued by Larko’s suggestion. Seems to me that by figuring out what percentage of each type of hit comes around to score, you could come up with some interesting numbers to plug into SLUG*. Perhaps this has already been done? I’m not as familiar with these advanced stats as many others on this site seem to be.

    Nate

78. 
    78: Justin said at 10:48 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    John,

    Morneau has probably gotten more game-winning hits. Of course, he benefited from having Mauer on base for a lot of those, and had far more chances with runners on. Memory’s great when it comes to relating stories, but you can hardly call it reliable, particularly when compared to actual empirical evidence.

    Fielding percentage is a poor indicator of fielding ability. If a guy has no range but catches everything hit right at him, he’s less valuable in the field than a guy who gets to a lot more balls but makes a few errors along the way.

    Mauer plays a good number of games for a catcher. It takes a lot out of a person crouching for 100+ pitches a game. As for your contention about I-Rod and Varitek, Pudge managed to play 150 games in a season twice in his career (150 once, 153 once). Mauer’s 146 games in 2008 would have been the third-highest total of Pudge’s career and marked more games than Varitek ever played in a season. Of course, I’m sure you remember both those guys playing 150+ games year-in-year-out, so that’s probably more accurate than the numbers themselves.

79. 
    79: Justin said at 10:57 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    It’s also interesting to hear someone argue the opposite of the cliche by saying players rally around big boppers (as opposed to the usual little-guy-makes-everyone-better nonsense). Personally, I don’t believe players “rally” more for any one type of player. I’m of the mind that players are always TRYING to rally (unless they’re being asked to bunt or are pulling an Operation Shutdown). If you’re not legitimately doing what you can to succeed every time up, you’re probably not going to last long in the game.

    As an aside, though, try not contradicting your point immediately after making it. A guy hitting a home run changes the complexion of the game, sure, because it changes the score. But to say it deflates the opposition and then point out that the Twins seemingly weren’t deflated when opponents hit homers, well, that doesn’t wash.

    I’m not trying to tear down Morneau – as a fellow Canadian, I pull for the guy, and there’s no doubt his offense helped his team a lot. I just think there’s much more to evaluating a player’s contributions than RBI, fielding percentage and the like.

80. 
    80: Jon Morse said at 11:11 pm on November 25th, 2008:

    “I think [Trammell] was significantly more valuable than Hernandez, who only threw 140 innings.”

    What strikes me as funny here is that if a reliever in 2009 threw 140 innings and was a stud, we’d probably argue he deserved some hardware, and we certainly wouldn’t preface “threw 140 innings” with “only.” Oh, the times, they have a-changed.

81. 
    81: Drake33 said at 1:03 am on November 26th, 2008:

    Justin,

    At a certain point you are going to have to stop arguing with John, because it’ll be like pulling teeth. He’s reciting the KFAN Barrerio and Common Man arguments verbatum. The next argument is the ill-fated attempt to bunt his way on base on the last game of the year.

    ‘Morneau wouldn’t have done that. He would have struck out. Like a “real man”.’

    Mauer is the more irreplaceable player. Morneau gets the glory and the RBI’s. They are both top 10 players in the league, and damn fun to watch. But based on my definition of MVP, Mauer gets the easy nod over Morneau.

82. 
    82: Aaron M. said at 1:45 am on November 26th, 2008:

    No love for Deviled Eggs in the poll, but Turducken gets in?

83. 
    83: Aaron M. said at 2:06 am on November 26th, 2008:

    I’m sorry but I could have won a Cy Young award pitching against the AL Central this year. Lee pitched against the Royals 5 times and went 5-0. 4 starts against the Twins for 2-1. He started 3 games against Detroit, and no more than 2 for any other team. He got no more than 2 wins from any team other than the Royals. Plate appearances against Lee by team went 151 (Royals), 115 (Twins), 109 (Interleague – Giants, Padres, Reds, Dodgers). No other team faced him for more than 79 PAs (Detroit). Lee was crap against Detroit, Boston, Texas, and Cincinatti, but only started 7 games against those 4 teams with a combined 191 PAs. Lee had the Royals number this year, he should thank them for his Cy Young.

    It’s all right here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=leecl02&year=2008

84. 84: Gymnastics » Gymnastics - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia said at 2:46 am on November 26th, 2008:

    [...] My MVP Ballot (Finally)Not that Nadia wasn’t an excellent gymnast… but do you think she was doing significantly better gymnastics 30 years ago than those Chinese mites are doing today? People were drawn into the narrative by the statistical scale, … [...]

85. 
    85: Old Flattop said at 7:28 am on November 26th, 2008:

    Mike Williams – MVP voting in 1985 was a case of RBI bias, not East Coast bias. Monster RBI totals have always won MVP awards regardless of location (cf. AL 2006).

86. 
    86: Ross said at 7:49 am on November 26th, 2008:

    I can’t believe Grady Sizemore didn’t get some Cleveland love! He had a 30HR/30SB season and, if the Indians weren’t jobbed by injury this year, would have won every award out there.

    Not to mention, he is great to watch play defense. Joe should devise a stat about how much a player makes you want to watch a team beyond normal rooting interests. I have virtually no interest in the Indians, but will watch them just to see Sizemore play.

    New Stat: 1 Sizemore=5 extra TV viewings of a team’s games.

87. 
    87: Gate said at 8:06 am on November 26th, 2008:

    An earlier post basically covered this, but neither Varitek or Pudge ever caught 150 or more games in a season. Ever.

    In 1999 when Pudge stole his Pedro’s MVP he caught 141 games. In 2008, Joe Mauer caught 139 games.

    By the way, on a chat with Tony Massarotti, who writes for the Globe, someone argued that Varitek’s worth as a game caller was evident by the superior won/lost records the Sox had in games he caught over the past 5 years. That is pretty compelling evidence. I mean it’s not like games w/o Varitek had any common characteristic – like a back of the rotation knuckleballer who’s basically a .500 pitcher…

88. 
    88: Sara K said at 8:38 am on November 26th, 2008:

    I have to buy the book just to see how the editor handles the “footnotes.”

89. 
    89: Mikey said at 8:54 am on November 26th, 2008:

    Why isn’t there any booze on the poll?

    Apple cider is an option but not a nice glass of wine with dinner or a cold beer to wash down tomorrow’s awful NFL double dip?

    Happy Thanksgiving to all here.

90. 
    90: concerned citizen said at 8:56 am on November 26th, 2008:

    Hey Joe, off-topic… can you get your friend Chuck Culpepper to start a blog so I can tell him how much I enjoyed “Bloody Confused!” over and over again? A really nice book I bought based on your recommendation. I too ended up following Portsmouth (or Pompey) because one of my work colleagues was from that area, and the season he documented in the book was essentially the same season I started following the Premier League. Now I’m dying to hear what he thought when Pompey won the FA cup this year, or when Harry Redknapp pulled a Bill Parcells and went over to Tottenham, or what happened to the big blue bear.

    BTW, I can’t get over the fact that in America this book is called “Bloody Confused!” but in the UK it’s called “Up Pompey.” I guess that’s knowing your target audiences…

91. 
    91: skott said at 9:20 am on November 26th, 2008:

    hate to be a stickler, but there’s no Tofurkey on the list, my friend.

92. 
    92: Bill said at 9:35 am on November 26th, 2008:

    I had crafted this as a response to John, but he’s not going to follow it or care. So just as a general interest matter:

    Think about this. There has never been a catcher like Joe Mauer. NEVER. That’s not by any means to say that he’s the BEST ever, just that there’s never been anybody you can really compare him to. As SBG said, catchers with .400 OBPs don’t grow on trees…or, well, exist. At all. His comps through age 25 on baseball-reference.com, once you get past Shanty Hogan (a part-timer who put up pretty-looking inflated numbers in the ’20s and ’30s), include just three catchers: Jason Kendall, who was fantastic until suddenly falling apart at 26 (but still not AS good, and didn’t have Mauer’s defensive abilities), and Dickey and Cochrane, who were pretty important to some World Series teams. And still, though age 25, Mauer was considerably better than both. Also down on the list are Lazzeri, Jeter and Carew. You just don’t see those guys on catchers’ comp lists.

    Meanwhile, I can think of four current 1Bs off the top of my head who are very much like Morneau–Youkilis, Gonzales, Tiexiera, Huff. And of course Pujols is in another stratosphere. Morneau’s comps through age 27 are all 1Bs who have played within the last 20 years. Love Morneau, glad to have him, but people really need to start noticing the incredibly unusually great thing we have going on here…and he ain’t it.

93. 
    93: Brent said at 11:14 am on November 26th, 2008:

    Bill, I gotta believe Mauer’s career will look very similar to Cochrane’s. That is definitely a compliment.

    Morneau’s career? Fred McGriff maybe?

94. 
    94: William said at 11:19 am on November 26th, 2008:

    Please pay no attention to Jason Lukeheart’s first post. The piece reads fine.

95. 
    95: Richard Aronson said at 11:42 am on November 26th, 2008:

    Daniel and Cooper said it well. Lincecum was slightly more dominant. The main reason Santana got seven more innings was one more start. I have no doubt that if the Giants had been in any kind of pennant race, Lincecum would have had a short rest start. Okay, I do have doubt: the Giants had an excellent pitching staff., whereas the Mets were desperate for quality innings. But I’m not going to hold it against Lincecum for being on a bad team. Given defensive inefficiencies versus bullpen suckitude, I’d say that all the intangibles even out.

    As for 1974, Garvey versus Wynn, Steve Garvey in 1974 played 156 games at first base with the best glove in baseball (the first of four straight gold glove years for Garvey). Garvey’s RFg and RF9 were both almost FOUR more than the league average first baseman. Garvey saved Bill Russell countless errors by being mobile and great at digging balls out of the dirt. I am not going to comment on his throwing arm, but arms don’t matter much for first basemen. Jimmy Wynn played 148 games providing average range in center field. He, too, had a dreadful arm, but in center field arm is rather more important.

    And I’ll take this opportunity to remind you of the 1974 World Series, Dodgers versus A’s. IIRC, Sal Bando on third, and a fly ball to medium deep center right field (I’d call it right center, except this was a ball most everybody would have expected Wynn to catch). And if Wynn had caught it, no story; sac fly, Bando could almost have crawled home. But Joe Ferguson, who perhaps had the strongest arm behind the plate in baseball (yes, I know about Bench, and Steve Yeager – Ferguson was not particularly good at calling games, lacked defensive mobility, and his arm wasn’t all that accurate, but of those three catchers listed I bet Ferguson would have won on the radar gun) came over with a long *LONG* run from right field, backhanded the ball, and threw the ball home on the fly, nailing Bando by a step. If Wynn had caught that ball, Bando had time to score twice.

    And the Dodgers in 1974, IIRC, had a lot of ground ball specialists. Doug Rau, Tommy John, and Al Downing, the #3, 4, and 5 starters, were (at that stage of their careers) all ground ball specialists. So there were a *lot* of reasons to overly reward a first baseman who turned errant throws into outs, and who reached everything reachable. I mean, I saw Wes Parker as well as Steve Garvey, and I *think* Garvey had the better glove. Parker was by FAR the better fielder, because he could hit the shortstop instead of the left fielder when trying for the 3-6-1 double play, or just simply get the force at second instead of beating the runner to first. But in isolation, Garvey’s glove was as good as I’ve ever seen at first base (Brooks Robinson’s was better at third, Ozzie’s at short) and I think he deserved the MVP.

96. 
    96: David Dubbert said at 11:44 am on November 26th, 2008:

    you have two “t”s in triples in one of your comments.

    The well-intended grammar nitpicking aside, I don’t see why Cliff Lee wasn’t higher up on your list. If you’re talking about replaceability, I don’t see how he isn’t more replaceable than anybody outside of your top 4. I know he’s a pitcher and he won the Cy Young, so maybe he doesn’t need another award, but he’s got to be in any top 10 from this year.

97. 
    97: Richard Aronson said at 11:58 am on November 26th, 2008:

    Two replies, separated because I think this is important.

    We need two MVP awards. One for hitters, one for pitchers.

    Hear me out, please. Batters get Silver Sluggers and almost always MVP. Pitchers get Cy Young. They are an award short.

    If we’re going to reward the MVP based in large part on being on a playoff contender, then we need a comparable award for pitchers. In fact, we need one more than usual this year. Lincecum won the Cy Young award for being the best pitcher in the NL. But if we also had a pitching MVP in the NL, it would come down to Santana over Lidge. And then we see that Santana (or maybe Lidge) gets the recognition for doing what they did under pressure, and Lincecum gets recognition for doing what he did period. Allow a pitcher to win both awards in the same year, natch, if a pitcher deserves them both. But acknowledge that it’s harder to do well in context of a pennant race, and value accrues to the guys who lead their teams to a shot at the World Series.

    Similarly, create a Golden Bat award, rewarding the batter who had the best season with the stick. The problem with Silver Sluggers is there are nine of them, including an NL pitcher (gak!). So we could give (say) Pujols the Golden Bat, but give Utley the MVP. In the NL, Youk gets the Golden Bat, Pedroia the MVP. In the AL, Lee is still the Cy Young, but probably somebody else gets the MVPitcher – maybe K-Rod, for setting the record for the team with the most wins in baseball, maybe Nathan, maybe one of the starters.

    By codifying Value as meaning Victories (there’s an easy mnemonic) but creating an equivalent award, we eliminate the age old question of whether (say) Orel Hershiser was more valuable than Kirk Gibson; they could both win in 1988. We also codify value versus quality season, so that clarifies that award on the hitter’s side.

    So who wins the Golden Bat in the AL? Maybe ARod, maybe Grady, maybe Bradley, none of whom got or were going to get much MVP consideration because their teams weren’t in the hunt. But I think this is fairer, Going back to Ted Williams versus Joe Dimaggio, Williams wins the Golden Bat, The Yankee Clipper MVP. It gives careers more context. And for a lot of career also rans and guys who got jobbed (Alan Trammell, Eddie Murray, Mike Piazza) it would reward them for helping their teams win even though somebody else had a better year for a weaker team (or at 5,000 feet).

98. 
    98: Bill said at 12:32 pm on November 26th, 2008:

    Richard Aronson- just realized you made two posts I wanted to respond to. In order:
    (1) Jimmy Wynn had better than average range in center. A good CF > a great 1B. BP has Wynn at five wins better than Garvey in ‘74, about 11 to about 6. or roughly (actually a bit more than) the difference between Chase Utley and Pat Burrell. The true difference may not be QUITE 5 wins, but it’s not close, either.

    (2) The Hank Aaron Award purports to go to the best hitter in each league every year (it doesn’t–Aramis Ramirez won it this year, and Youkilis won the AL HAA but not the Silver Slugger for his position…?!?).
    How about just getting rid of the silly notion that the lucky accident of playing on a playoff contender should have something to do with how valuable an individual player is? I would like to see an award that’s like a CY for position players (either the HAA taken seriously or something else), so that the pitchers can have a fair chance at MVP. But the players’ teams’ status as playoff condenders has no business anywhere in’t.

    Brent- McGriff does show up on Morneau’s age-27 comps, but of course the thing that will eventually (maybe 30 years down the road) get the Crime Dog into the Hall is that he played at the level Morneau is at now for 15 straight seasons. If he can’t do that, or suddenly get a lot better, he’s more like Hrbek or Mo Vaughn. Which is to say still a very, very good player…just not the kind of guy who should have won two MVP awards (or even one).

99. 
    99: Erik said at 1:06 pm on November 26th, 2008:

    As a Twins fan, I think part of what gets Mauer overlooked in favor of Morneausie is that there are just way, way, WAY too many feeble looking ground balls hit by the catcher. I think Mauer is definitely the better, more valuable, player. But dang it, it just seems like he should be so much better even though I realize that indeed, the guy is already historic. When you see greatness, you want to maximize it, you want it to really take off, and you want the sense that the “great one” is trying to squeeze every drop of greatness out of his career rock. With Mauer, you get singles, you get the most bland hum-drum, flat line personality ever, you get more singles, great defense, no discrenable leadership qualities (other than performance), more singles, and great defense.

    I want Mauer to WANT TO BE GREAT more than he overtly seems to. He seems content to slap singles the other way, play defense and utter cliches. I really think he could be way better than he already is and that is incredibly frustrating to a Twins fan like me.

100. 
     100: Brent said at 2:31 pm on November 26th, 2008:

     Bill: I agree with you on Morneau. I was trying to come up with his ceiling when I threw out McGriff. Obviously, if he cannot consistently do what he is doing now, then you have to downgrade him (I am looking at his comps too, Alvin Davis?)

101. 
     101: Josh said at 2:38 pm on November 26th, 2008:

     I’m a Mets fan and I have no problem with Lincecum winning; he had a stellar year.

     If I were going to gripe, it’d be about the cognitive disconnect between the 2006 and 2007 NL MVP voting: In 2006 Ryan Howard’s huge power numbers won out over Carlos Beltran’s (superior, by most metrics) all-around performance. Howard had the 58 HR and the .659 SLG, but Beltran slugged .594, stole bases at a high success rate, played stellar defense at a premium position, and (this is important to voters, or it isn’t, depending on whom they want to justify voting for) was a big part of a team that ran away with a division title. Howard had an edge in slash lines and EqA:

     Howard .313/.425/.569, .337
     Beltran .275/.388/.594, .324

     But the difference in their position and defense led to a sizable edge for Beltran in WARP:

     Howard 9.7
     Beltran 12.8

     However, in 2007 the voters changed course, and it was suddenly very important to play on a playoff team in order to be MVP, leading to Jimmy Rollins winning out over David Wright even though Wright’s numbers were almost all superior (and even though he raked in September when the rest of the Mets were dragging):

     Rollins .296/.344/.531, .291, WARP3 10.8
     Wright .325/.416/.546, .331, WARP3 14.4

     If you want your MVP to come from a playoff team, then fine, Wright’s awesome 2007 is unavailing. But if that’s what you want, then Beltran should’ve been your MVP in 2006.

102. 
     102: Ian said at 3:25 pm on November 26th, 2008:

     Joe,

     I haven’t read all these posts – and heck, you probably won’t read this one but I’ll put in my two cents for Morneau over Mauer in both 06 and 08. Basically, it boils down to the Twins, as a team over the last 3 years, win when Morneau is playing well and lose when he goes into any sort of slump.

     First, in 06 the Twins went 70-33 over their last 103 games, came from 11.5 back and finished one game behind the Yanks for the best record in baseball. During that 103 game run, Morneau put up a 1.030 OPS (in a hitters park) and led the AL in avg, slg and RBI. He was easily the best player in the AL in that period. Mauer actually struggled a bit in the summer and had his worst two months in July and August. The team started winning when Morneau started hitting and it kept winning even when Mauer started to slump and started hitting into a ton of double plays.

     This year was fairly similiar. Morneau led Mauer in OPS+ 145 to 136 on Sept 1 then he slumped badly enough that they tied in it and the Twins lost a playoff spot. Mauer took over the win shares lead on Sept 15 for the first time. Morneau started 163 games to Joe’s 139. Mauer was very consistent this year, never having a massive slump but also never able to carry the team by himself. He didn’t knock in a runner from 1B until August despite having speedy guys galore in front of him, although he did manage another 20+ double play season. Joe had little power (44 xtra base hits – Morneau hit 47 doubles) despite being physically bigger then Justin. He also choose to try and bunt when the team was down to it’s last 6 outs in the last game of the year, down a run. You don’t like to see that out of your #3 hitter. I love Mauer but Mccann put up a 134 OPS+ in Atlanta w/power to boot. Switch those two and I don’t think the Twins lose much.

103. 
     103: David in Toledo said at 3:52 pm on November 26th, 2008:

     Re posts which compare Mauer and Morneau on only their hitting: the comparison isn’t complete until the Twins play 70 games during which Mauer is at first and Morneau has to wear the tools and deal with the foul tips. Then we’ll see what everyone thinks.

     Re voting: Some of the BBWAA don’t research all the players they’re voting on, right? Well, how many of us assumed “turducken” was some Germanic side dish with at least one unspeakable ingredient, instead of actually checking it out? Hands up!

104. 
     104: J said at 5:08 pm on November 26th, 2008:

     So if the Twins could only keep one player, you’d keep Morneau? Interesting.

105. 105: love reign oer me | AMD.com said at 5:37 pm on November 26th, 2008:

     [...] My MVP Ballot (Finally) Wynn was the Toy Cannon with a lot of walks and more power. Batting average and RBIs certainly reigned in 1974. Glad those days are gone, right? Heh? Who’s with me? 1984: Alan Trammell over Willie Hernandez. … [...]

106. 
     106: Bill said at 6:07 pm on November 26th, 2008:

     Ian-

     So much is wrong with that, I don’t know where to start. I’ll try to hit most of them.

     - 103 games is a random-ass sample, but Mauer put up a .346/.436/.516 over that span despite his “slump,” and that might have had something to do with their success too, don’t you think?

     - No one on the planet can carry a baseball team by himself. As you said, Mauer was consistently great all year (though he did come on pretty strong at the end)–the Twins only won when both Mauer AND Morneau were going strong. It’s completely incoherent to say “Morneau and Mauer were doing great all year, and then Morneau slumped and they stopped winning, so Morneau must be more important to the team.”

     - Know who else grounded into 20+ DPs in 2008? Morneau.

     - Not sure driving in runners from first base by itself tells you a whole lot, but (because he had Mauer in front of him) Morneau batted with 104 more guys on 1B this year than Mauer did, and 151 more runners on base overall. Problem was that other than Span, those “speedy guys galore” aren’t particularly good at getting on base. Morneau was (of course) better at driving in runners from first, but Mauer was better at driving them in from second and third. Altogether, they drove in runners at the EXACT SAME RATE (essentially…Morneau wins by 0.3%).

     - You’ve identified the problem with OPS+; it counts OBP and SLG as equals, while in fact OBP is far more important. Mauer’s 137 is much more than 3% better than McCann’s 134, because Mauer has the 45-point edge in OBP. That’s a killer. And you lose a bit of defense. BP has Mauer worth 11.8 wins and McCann 8.9. Mauer is three wins better than the next best catcher in the league. That’s pretty huge.

     You did the best you (or anybody) could. Which illustrates just how much more valuable Mauer is than Morneau…that’s pretty close to the best argument that can be made, and it’s completely and obviously wrong.

107. 
     107: Matt M said at 10:01 pm on November 26th, 2008:

     What, no turbaconducken on the menu?

     http://bacontoday.com/turbaconducken-turducken-wrapped-in-bacon/

108. 
     108: paul penny said at 11:14 pm on November 26th, 2008:

     Not sure if anyone mentioned, but a big mistake of a player winning the mvp over a more deserved mate would be:
     Kent over Bonds in 2000
     Bonds:
     R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG

     129 147 28 4 49 106 330 117 77 11 3 .440 .688 .306

     Kent:

     114 196 41 7 33 125 350 90 107 12 9 .424 .596 .334

     Kent did have more RBI and hit for a better average-so I guess that is why he won.
     Also, Bonds should have won in ‘91 instead of Terry Pendleton.

     Not sure if there are any NBA fans left, but the year they gave it to the Mailman instead of Jordan was dumb. It was b/c they were sick of giving it to MJ, I guess.

109. 
     109: paul penny said at 11:30 pm on November 26th, 2008:

     Oh yeah, Joe:
     Get on board the “Soria Rotation Bandwagon”

     There are a few of us right now but we don’t have much power. We are just annoying our co-workers with our rants.

     Points for:
     You need to get 27 outs to win a baseball game.
     You should have your best pitchers get as many of those outs as possible.
     Soria looks like he has the pitches (4)
     and the makeup to be a starter
     His upside: Greg Maddux

     Points against:
     Not sure who the closer would be

     People tend to say they should keep Soria as the closer b/c “if it ain’t broke-don’t fix it.”
     Umm. The Royals are broke. They need fixing. Even with the Jacobs and Coco moves, they are closer to last place than first place. Look at the Royals vs Tigers run diff. last year.

110. 
     110: will betheboy said at 11:51 pm on November 26th, 2008:

     Not on topic but Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family Joe. You’re work never fails to add some happiness and knowledge to my life.

111. 
     111: Ryan said at 11:59 pm on November 26th, 2008:

     It’s covered in the VORP rankings, but in regards to the Youkilis v. Pedroia debate, I think the amount of time they actually played has to be considered. Pedroia played in 12 more games than Youkilis, which isn’t an overly huge deal. However, he also had over 100 more plate appearances than Youkilis as well. Pedroia also had more defensive innings, even considering Youk’s time at first and third (that is overlooked). When that is added up, the rate stat differences close in my opinion. If you add that to positional differences, baserunning quality, and so on, objectively, I’ve made the argument for Pedroia.

     With that said, subjectively, I totally get why a lot of Boston fans think it was Pedroia over Youkilis and why those people who Joe talks to say that. This is going to sound nuts and like a Morneau-arguer, but whenever I watched the Sox, I felt safe with Pedroia at the plate. I knew Youk could be fooled by a good breaking ball or a great fastball. He could crush a HR/Double…or he could strike out. However, even if it’s misguided, when Pedroia was up, I felt legitimately positive that this was going to turn out well for the Sox. I never felt like Pedroia would strikeout or GIDP, even if he would. It just seemed like he did it more often when we needed it and that he always made the play.

     Plus, he’s pretty much flawless in execution at second. I can’t remember the last serious defensive gaffe (or Lugo in these parts) he made.

     I think that, for Boston fans, a lot of it has to do with positional history. Here are the starters at first and second for Boston since the strike

     1B
     1995-1998: Mo Vaughn (legitimate star)
     1999: Mike Stanley (still a solid hitter)
     2000-2001: Brian Daubach (a decent to good played, if very streaky)
     2002: Tony Clark (bust)
     2003-2005: Kevin Millar (a plus player, key player in the 25)
     2006-2008: Kevin Youkilis (all-star caliber 1B)

     So you had a bust, three good players, and two stars

     2B:
     1995: Luis Alicea (solid player, not that good)
     1996: Jeff Frye (see Alicea)
     1997: John Valentin (Boston favorite, converted SS)
     1998: Mike Benjamin (ew)
     1999-2001: Jose Offerman (Awfulman only got worse as time went on)
     2002: Rey Sanchez (hooboy)
     2003: Todd Walker (defensive mess, but decent hitter)
     2004-2005: Mark Bellhorn (the patient K machine who was still good, but pretty quiet)
     2006: Mark Loretta (nice placeholder if nothing else)
     2007-2008: Dustin Pedroia

     So, you had a slew of decent players, some stinkers in the late 90’s/early ’00’s, and Dustin Pedroia. Boston’s 2B history makes Pedroia pretty unique in that sense.

112. 
     112: Aaron B-2 said at 12:19 am on November 27th, 2008:

     I think Kirk Gibson and his 75-year-old legs deserve an assist in getting Eck into the HOF. Granted, you’d rather be the one hitting the impossible home run in the World Series than giving it up, but history is history and Dennis was, in that sense, lucky once more.

113. 
     113: Jeff said at 12:51 am on November 27th, 2008:

     Thank you to Paul Penny who got to it before I did. Wtf were the writers thinking when they voted Kent MVP?!

114. 
     114: Bill said at 10:13 am on November 27th, 2008:

     I think Barry probably should’ve won in 2000 too, but Kent isn’t one of the 20 worst picks in MVP history. A .424/.596 from an average-fielding 2B is probably harder to replace (not that either of them can be fully replaced) than a .440/.688 from an average-fielding LF. BP has Kent at 12 wins and Bonds at 11. Now, did the writers think through any of that? Of course not — Kent had more RBI! But they happened to luck into not doing a terrible job with that one.

     Not so much in ‘91, though Pendleton was a phenomenal defensive 3B, so it’s not as awful as it looks.

115. 
     115: Bill said at 10:15 am on November 27th, 2008:

     Kent also played 16 more games. The more I look at it, the more I think they might have accidentally gotten that one just right.

116. 
     116: Ian Fedeli said at 11:41 am on November 27th, 2008:

     Joe knows: JOHAN GOT ROBBED.

117. 
     117: Mike said at 4:57 pm on November 27th, 2008:

     It’s not very surprising that Lincecum won easily over Santana. Writers tend to use triple crown stats, and Lincecum’s were great:

     Lincecum: 18-5, 2.62 ERA, 265 K
     Santana: 16-7, 2.53 ERA, 206 K

     Their ERAs are pretty similar, and Lincecum has the easy edge in strikeouts and record. Lincecum also wins by the more advanced metrics: THT credits him with 27 win shares to Santana’s 21. Their RAs are virtually identical, despite New York having a better defense than San Francisco. Santana’s VORP is 1.3 runs better than Lincecum’s, but Linceum has a much better FIP (2.67 to 3.51), although I’m not really sure how much confidence I have in that statistic. Pitchers have some imput on the runs they give up other than home runs, strikeouts and walks. Lincecum probably deserves more credit for the runs he saved, but Johan was huge down the stretch for a Mets’ team fighting for a playoff spot. That shouldn’t be forgotten…I think I would have voted for Lincecum. It’s a lot closer than the vote indicated.

118. 
     118: Adrian said at 6:40 pm on November 27th, 2008:

     I’m lying down recovering from Turkey and Mashed Potatoes wishing I had some Smarties…

119. 
     119: Justin said at 9:34 pm on November 27th, 2008:

     Joe,

     I hope you’re enjoying your Thanksgiving, but please update the blog soon. You’re normally good for one or two posts a day, and the last time a favourite blog of mine went a longer-than-usual time between posts, the FJM guys wound up shutting ‘er down.

120. 
     120: Doug French said at 11:24 pm on November 27th, 2008:

     I didn’t agree with Pedroia as MVP. I like your argument for Mauer. I could’ve lived with that (and will LIVE with the Pedroia mess but you know what I mean..)

     Anyway, I thought I would point out that the word VALUABLE obviously means “most expensive” and so, now we’re talking fantasy baseball so, DUHHHH, just go to rototimes.com and use their player value calculator and (use our league’s 5 stat lines – OBA-not BA, HR, R, RBI, SB) and you’ll see that the NL MVP was correctly picked. Pujols was “worth” $42.11 in our league. The highest AL guy was Sizemore with $36.76. He gets the prize. End of story.

     BTW, Pedroia was BARELY in the top 25 of the REAL mvp list. He was only worth/valued at $26.61.

     P.S. What is all of this talk about defense? You confuse me with it. What does that have to do with baseball?

     I really enjoy the blog. I feel like I’m talking baseball with you even though we don’t speak directly. I also feel like even though you have forgotten more about it than I’ll know, you don’t talk down to me. Looking forward to 09/09/09.

     Sincerely,
     Big Red Machine

121. 
     121: X said at 12:05 am on November 28th, 2008:

     Joe – Love the work. And love the MVP snubs above. Great analysis and I have had a bug in my bonnet about a bunch of those same one for a while.

     Please just do us all a big favor – please, please stop the endless plugs for your book. Frankly, its a bit embarassing for you. The regulars here, we know its coming (how could we not). And I know a bit of it as running joke, but really does it need to be every post? It makes me want to NOT buy the book. Minor turnoffs may seem small, but just ask Neyer how his book sales fared after ESPN put him behind the wall. You are a great writer. I’m sure your book will be fantastic (and the subject is great). Please just spare us the near daily reminders.

122. 
     122: Shoeless_Mike said at 9:50 am on November 28th, 2008:

     If Joe stops reminding us about the book I am willing to bet that posters here will carry that torch… just sayin’

     BTW – I heard that Joe is writing a book about Dave Concepcion…

     Mike

123. 
     123: Shonepup said at 11:38 am on November 28th, 2008:

     In regards to Tyler’s comments about 30 posts up that Lincecum pitched in an easier pitcher’s park at Pac Bell (er….AT&T) than Santana at Shea – despite that common perception, that is actually not true.

     AT&T does depress home run rates, but with the huge alley in right center, it actually favors batters. Check out the park factors for the two parks:

     AT&T:
     Three Year Batter- 102
     2008 Batter – 103

     Three Year Pitcher – 102
     2008 Pitcher – 104

     Shea:
     Three Year Batter- 99
     2008 Batter – 100

     Three Year Pitcher – 98
     2008 Pitcher – 99

     As you can see, Shea has favored pitchers about 5% more than AT&T has, both last year and for the last couple years.

     While I wouldn’t have been upset if Santana won the award over Lincecum, Lincecum certainly deserved it.

124. 
     124: X said at 11:45 am on November 28th, 2008:

     Shoeless Mike – that is fine – if I start worrying about what commenters/posters have to say, well then I am just another Bizz Buzzinger, or whoever that old hack was that was on HBO whining about bloogers and didn’t kow the difference between commenters and the actual bloggers.

     Joe is an award winning writer, now with a nationa appeal due to his CNNSI gig/link. I know he is having fun with, I just think it is a little old. That’s all.

125. 
     125: Shonepup said at 12:27 pm on November 28th, 2008:

     I like the constant reminders of the book. Not old at all. Keep it up. Lighten up X. Don’t buy the damn book if you don’t want to, and don’t read his posts if they’re getting “a little old,” but don’t try to make Joe any different than he is. Best blog on the Net, and I don’t want him to change a thing.

126. 126: 8 bit music | Intel.com said at 10:59 pm on November 28th, 2008:

     [...] My MVP Ballot (Finally) OK, time for a rambling post about my American League MVP ballot. I’m not sure if I will get another post up before Thanksgiving — I do have one in the works about this awesome sports music playlist I have put together, but I am working on this book — 09/09/09 — and I’m not sure if I will get … [...]

127. 127: love reign oer me | CNN.com said at 1:06 am on November 29th, 2008:

     [...] My MVP Ballot (Finally) Wynn was the Toy Cannon with a lot of walks and more power. Batting average and RBIs certainly reigned in 1974. Glad those days are gone, right? Heh? Who’s with me? 1984: Alan Trammell over Willie Hernandez. … [...]

128. 
     128: James Feldman said at 1:09 am on November 30th, 2008:

     I know the Orioles didn’t have much of a season, but I can’t help but note that both Huff and Markakis made two out of three of the VORP, Win Shares, and EqA, and don’t rate even an honorable mention from you (and each is just outside the top ten in the list they don’t make). And while lineup depth is of questionable effect on individual statistics, they both had those seasons in a lineup that often featured total deadweight at first base, shortstop, and catcher. They both played nearly every game, unlike Hamilton, Kinsler, Bradley or Quentin, and like the Rangers and Indians were never in contention in their division or the wild card.

     I’m not saying that either of these players had slam dunk better years than anyone on your list, but they clearly were among the most valuable players in the American League and deserve more recognition than they have received to date.

129. 
     129: Keatang said at 12:44 pm on December 1st, 2008:

     The Genius of Joe is the italicized asides that go on for hundreds of words…

     So, how ’bout a list of guys who lost the MVP because a teammate siphoned votes away from him?

     Kirk Gibson was one of the worst MVPs ever – .290 average/76 RBIs/25 HRs. For good measure he committed 12 errors, which is a lot for a left fielder.

     Strawberry went .269/101 RBIs/30 HRs. Gibson stole 31 bases and Straw stole 29. And they each won their division.

     I’m using triple crown numbers because that’s all that mattered in 1988 – but if you want to go sabermetrics the story is strong, because Straw’s one weakness – batting average – gets mitigated by a nearly-as-good OBP.

     So what happened? Kevin McReynolds had an awesome September is what happened, and he slipped in a stole a bunch of first place votes from Straw.

     I know all this because I’m an obsessive Mets fan (and the Mets have never won an MVP), but I assume there are other instances of guys getting jobbed on MVPs because a teammate siphoned some votes away…

130. 130: | Tits and Baseball said at 4:12 pm on December 1st, 2008:

     [...] just two Baseball Writers Association of America members with an actual MVP ballot this season to cast a first-place vote for Joe Mauer:I felt very strongly that he should have been the American League MVP in 2006 over [...]

131. 131: 2008 al mvp : tobuyautoinsurance said at 5:38 am on December 8th, 2008:

     [...] [...]

132. 
     132: sawdustking said at 2:01 pm on December 24th, 2008:

     Looks like Morneau’s defense has been pretty well discussed (I personally think it’s pretty good), but what I find completely astounding is the statement that he can’t run. He hit 51 doubles and triples in ‘08!

133. 
     133: John Q. said at 2:10 am on December 25th, 2008:

     Excellent article.

     I love the “replaceabliity” factor in talking about Joe Mauer. The Twins could have replaced Morneau to a certain degree last summer, but if Joe Mauer got hurt forget it. They would have been out of the playoff chase by August. Mauer would be a superstar if he played in New York, Boston or L.A. He probably should have won 2 MVP trophys.

     i love the bad MVP choices of the past. Especially Alan Trammell. I really can’t believe this guy is doing so poorly in HOF voting.

     Excellent point about how “scrappy” middle infielders are over-rated and very-good to great middle infielders are under-rated.

134. 
     134: Michael Bravard said at 10:36 am on December 26th, 2008:

     Great choice!
     Mauer was as clear a choice as Trammell over Bell!
     But RBI totals did the Trammell in.
     In this case its much harder to see how the 2b beat the C?
     The replaceable argument in favor of Mauer was outstanding.
     About 9-9-09: Why is Morgan among the greatest critics of “Stat guys” when they are his greatest advocates as best 2b ever?

     Mike Bravard

135. 135: Baby name meaning and origin for Orel said at 11:22 pm on March 12th, 2009:

     [...] My MVP Ballot (Finally) ” Joe Posnanski reddit_url=’http://www.baby-parenting.com/baby/babyname/Orel’ reddit_title=’Baby name meaning and origin for Orel’ [...]

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