Moose Hunting

Posted: November 17th, 2008 | Filed under: Baseball, Pop Culture | 55 Comments »

It’s time once again to play the numbers game:

Pitcher A: 243-142, .631 winning percentage, 3,507 innings, 3,153 hits, 2303 Ks, 709 walks, 263 Win Shares, 123 ERA+.
Pitcher B: 270-153, .638 winning percentage, 3,562 innings, 3,450 hits, 2,813 Ks, 785 walks, 270 Win Shares, 123 ERA+.

That’s pretty comparable, no? Pitcher A gave up fewer hits and walks, but pitcher B won more games at a higher clip and struck out more batters. They have the same ERA+.

If this is all you had to vote for the Hall of Fame, you would probably have a hard time deciding. Of course you wouldn’t vote for the Hall of Fame based solely on those numbers … you would want to dig a little deeper. So, OK, here are the Top 7 ERA+ seasons for each pitcher:

Pitcher A
169 ERA+
168 ERA+
167 ERA+
144 ERA+
132 ERA+
123 ERA+
121 ERA+

Pitcher B
163 ERA+
157 ERA+
145 ERA+
142 ERA+
137 ERA+
132 ERA+
129 ERA+ (twice)

So, it looks like Pitcher A had a couple more top end seasons, Pitcher B better lower-end seasons.

How about a few other statistics:

Walks per nine
Pitcher A: Led league four times, finished Top 10 eleven times.
Pitcher B: Led league once, finished Top 10 fifteen times.

Strikeouts per nine
Pitcher A: Finished Top 10 five times.
Pitcher B: Finished Top 10 nine times.

Innings pitched
Pitcher A: Led league twice, finished Top 10 eight times
Pitcher B: Led league once, finished Top 10 eight times

WHIP
Pitcher A: Led league twice, finished Top 10 eight times
Pitcher B: Never led league, finished Top 10 twelve times

Shutouts
Pitcher A: Led league twice, finished Top 10 nine times
Pitcher B: Led league once finished Top 10 eleven times.

Wins
Pitcher A: Led league twice, finished Top 10 eight times.
Pitcher B: Led league once, finished Top 10 nine times.

Adjusted ERA+
Pitcher A: Led league twice, finished Top 10 six times
Pitcher B: Never led league, finished Top 10 eleven times.

OK, so we are probably getting a clearer picture now. Pitcher A looks to be slightly more dominant at the top end, and Pitcher B looks to have had more good years. But, all in all, their similarities — it seems to me anyway — dwarf their differences. They are both good control pitchers who threw a lot of innings, struck out their share and won a lot.

So, now I’m going to tell you that Pitcher A is the guy Pete Rose and Joe Morgan, just over the weekend, called the toughest pitcher they ever faced. That would be Juan Marichal.

And Pitcher B is Mike Mussina.

Well, it shocked me anyway. On Monday, I was among those asked by New York Times sportswriter Tyler Kepner whether or not Mike Mussina is a Hall of Famer even if he does not come back next season.* My initial reaction was that yes, he is a Hall of Famer already. A cursory look at the numbers confirmed it for me. That 123 ERA+ is better than, among others, Tom Glavine, Bob Feller, Bert Blyleven, Warren Spahn, Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, Jim Bunning and Nolan Ryan. He has certainly pumped up plenty of good counting numbers if you care about those — 270 victories places him 33rd all-time, which sure isn’t bad in this five-man rotation, bring-in-the bullpen era. Plus he won more than 10 games 17 times — only Don Sutton, Greg Maddux, Phil Niekro and Walter Johnson have done that more.

*I have now read the story, and it seems that I’m a bit more enthusiastic about Mussina’s career than others.

But, even as I looked over the numbers, I had no idea how similar his career numbers are to Marichal’s until I just compared them on the computer screen. Now, admittedly the numbers are only similar if you leave out one critical statistic — that being ERA.

Marichal: 2.89 career ERA — sub 2.50 ERA six times.
Mussina: 3.68 career ERA — sub 2.50 ERA 0 times, sub 3.00 ERA once.

But I think that ERA difference is a bit of an illusion, which is why I left it out — Marichal pitched in a very low run-scoring environment. And Mussina pitched in a very high run-scoring environment. That’s why it’s easy to miss the similarities. Plus, Marichal pitched in a time when pitchers threw a lot of complete games (certainly Marichal threw a lot of complete games) and, as such, got a lot of decisions. Marichal won 25 or more games three times, he won 20 or more three other times. Mussina, of course, has only won 20 once, and that was this past year with the Yankees.

But compared to their times, Mussina and Marichal were both big winners who threw a lot of innings and had low ERAs. I think if you strip away the quirks of the times, Mussina and Marichal were both right-handed pitchers, about the same size (Mussina is two inches taller at 6-foot-2, both weighed 185), both threw a bunch of different pitches, both had dandy control, both attacked hitters inside, both won about 63% of their games, both had an unconventional pitch that sort of marked them — Marichal threw the screwball, Mussina a knuckle-curve.

Neither one won a Cy Young because they were overshadowed by world-class pitchers — Marichal did not even get a single Cy Young vote the three years he won 25 games, because those years belonged to Sandy Koufax and Bob Gibson. Mussina lost the 1999 Cy Young to Pedro, and he found himself somewhat lost in the decade of Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens.

They both have quite low “Index of Self Destruction” numbers — this is another invention of Bill James where he takes the total number of a pitchers hit batsman, balks, wild pitchers and errors per nine innings pitched. It’s just a fun way of looking at how much a pitcher hurts himself …

Marichal: 0.41 Index — quite low, in large part because he only hit 40 batters in his career and only threw 51 wild pitches. His control was stellar.
Mussina: 0.37 Index — even lower in large part because, amazingly, the man only has one balk in his entire career. One balk. I had no idea. The only pitchers in baseball who have thrown MORE innings than Mussina with one balk are three of the all-time greats, Pete Alexander, Lefty Grove and Carl Hubbell — and they hardly ever seemed to call balks back then. Mussina also is one of the best fielding pitchers in baseball history.

They are so alike, and yet Marichal has a much bigger reputation, maybe because of his remarkably low ERAs, his big-win seasons, his high leg-kick and some legendary moments. I’m not saying that Mussina is as great as Marichal was — I haven’t studied it that closely and anyway I think Marichal’s peak is clearly a higher than Mussina’s . But I do think that this gave me something to think about.* I do believe Mussina should be a Hall of Fame lock right now. And I’m wondering if he is simply the overlooked pitcher of our era, sort of the Blyleven of the time.

*OK, I believe you have gotten all of this week’s Vackie Conversation lines from the last post, so here are the answers in one place:

1. “Champagne — champagne cocktails.”
– That’s from Godfather II and the brilliant and drunk Frankie Pentangeli. Don’t worry about anything Frankie Five-Angels.

2. “You just went down a notch in my, in my book.”
– That’s not the best line in Diner, far from it, but for some reasons that’s the one we always use, the line when Boogie chooses Elvis Presley.

3. “I said they didn’t take me. And he said, that’s good.”
– You guys got this one even though I tried to punctuate it in a tricky way. That’s Springsteen, of course, and his introduction to “The River” on the live boxed set. The army didn’t take him. And his hard-nosed father said that’s good.

3. “What did you want me to do, catch it and rehabilitate it?”
– This is from Annie Hall, after Woody Allen kills a spider and Diane Keaton starts crying.

4. “This song is not a rebel song.”
– This song is Sunday Bloody Sunday.

5. “How come you don’t tell that nice girl you love her.”
– From the original Godfather, that’s Clemenza — “I love you with all-a my heart. If I don’t see you again soon, I’m-a-gonna die.”

6. “Two and two to Harvey Kuenn.”
– That’s Vin Scully for Koufax’s perfect game: “Two and two to Harvey Kuenn, one strike away. Sandy into his windup, here’s the pitch, swung on and missed. A perfect game!” And then Scully was silent for 38 seconds.

7. “You see this watch? You see this watch? This watch costs more than your car.”
– That’s from Alec Baldwin’s seminal scene in Glengarry Glen Ross. We actually use numerous lines from that soliloquy including “coffee is for closers,” “it takes brass balls,” and “ABC, always, be, closing.”

8. “They’re killing me, Whitey.”
– That is former NFL coach Lou Saban shouting to assistant Whitey Dovell, one of many classic NFL Films moments.

9. “It’s a lovely marriage of words and music.”
– That is indeed a Frank Sinatra preamble before “Send In The Clowns.” Which he MURDERS by the way. I mean it’s a lousy song to begin with, but something about that song brought out the worst of Ol’ Blue Eyes. I feel like I have to listen to Summer Wind about 20 times in a row just to get this clunker out of my head.

10. “How can I be the man when you’re the man?”
– That was the constant cry of Scott Ferrall, a talk radio guy, who we first heard in Atlanta, like, years ago. I haven’t heard him in many years so I don’t know if his shtick still works, but it was funny then.

11. “Good shot. I’m a good shot.”
– That’s Joe Pesci from Goodfellas and that’s as close as he gets to an apology after he kills a kid named Spider for making fun of him. Someone says, “He’s dead.” Pesci says, as an explainer, “Good shot. I’m a good shot.”

12. “Oh bless his heart, he’s got to be the sickest man in America.”
– That is Verne Lundquist in the seconds after Jackie Smith dropped a wide open touchdown pass in the Super Bowl.“

13. “My offer is this. Nothing.”
– This is Michael to the Senator Red Hot Poker in Godfather II and it was, as a couple of people pointed out, made famous again in “The Freshman,” which I think is actually quite a funny movie.

14. “Down goes Frazier.”
– Cosell, of course. From the Foreman-Frazier fight.

15. “There’s a gleam, men. There’s a gleam.”
– This is Marty Schottenheimer before a Cleveland Browns playoffs game. The thing I love about this is that Marty seemed to be building up to something — sort of his own Saint Crispin’s Day speech — only it just fizzled out entirely. The entire speech, best I can tell, was this: “There is a gleam, men! There’s a gleam. Go get the gleam. All right, let’s go.”

16. “And don’t you just love that Jack Ruby got into the garage.”
– This is from a classic bit from Dennis Miller long ago, when he wondered how local strip-joint owner Jack Ruby got into the garage where Lee Harvey Oswald was being transferred — and with a gun no less. I probably laughed about as hard as I’ve ever laughed at anything when he said that. It just hit me exactly right.

55 Comments on “Moose Hunting”

  1. 1: rpa said at 10:26 pm on November 17th, 2008:

    mussina as the blyleven of our time…. that’s an interesting concept.

    it seems that mussina is a bit like don sutton to me, he’s been an above average pitcher for a very long time.

    you have to wonder the impact, hof-wise, that the GREAT seasons marichal had (that mussina didn’t) must have on this discussion. seems that a great season here or there certainly has an impact on hof-worthiness in the eyes of the voters.

    on a completely unrelated note, john erardi of the cincy enquirer name checked the beatles and the big red machine (is someone writing a book about those guys?) in a blog post:

    http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3a1ebf93a5-296d-4270-bf9e-a92f36f3d02f&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

  2. 2: Devon Young said at 10:43 pm on November 17th, 2008:

    You got me on a stat checking bonanza now… Marichal was one of the top two winningest pitchers during his playing career of July 19, 1960 – April 16, 1975 (Gibson being 1 win ahead of him). Mussina also is one of the top 2 winningest pitchers during his playing career (August 4, 1991 – 2008).

    I have to admit, to me, Mussina has never felt like a HOFer…more like a Jim Kaat or Tommy John (very very good but just missing the immortal mark). Yet, this bit you just wrote, has got me thinking that I need to change my attitude on the Moose.

  3. 3: Ca Twins fan said at 10:59 pm on November 17th, 2008:

    Springsteen was introducing “War” (what is it good for, absolutely nothing, etc), not “The River”. I think, without cuing it up and listening again……

    Correct me (gently) if I am wrong.

    Editor’s note: A gentle correction. He was introducing The River.

  4. 4: J said at 11:11 pm on November 17th, 2008:

    I thought this column was going to be about either Bob Moose or Sarah Palin.

  5. 5: B.E. Earl said at 11:14 pm on November 17th, 2008:

    I thought Mussina was a lock even before he won 20 games this past season. If you dig Baseball Reference Hall of Fame Standards metric, Mussina’s 54 puts him 28th all-time. The only guys ahead of him that aren’t in the Hall are Clemens, Maddux, Randy Johnson and Pedro. And those guys, well not Clemens, will all walk into the Hall on the 1st ballot. Mussina should be a no-brainer.

    But I think a lot of folks think of him as you described him. The Blyleven of our time. Oh, and he should be in the Hall as well.

  6. 6: MonkeyHawk said at 11:34 pm on November 17th, 2008:

    I’ll take your word for it that Mussina lost a game or few.

    I absolutely never remember any game the Moose pitched that he didn’t win. Of course, a lot of those games were against the Roylz. But it always seemed when a caught a game with Mussina pitching it was like watching Picasso paint.

    I was just a pup when Marichal was pitching. I remember a nasty summer night in Candlestick though, with that high kick it seemed he just willed the ball into the catcher’s mitt.

    Mussina was just luck. He just happened to pitch on days when the other team didn’t hit.

    ;^)

  7. 7: Broadway Jon said at 12:35 am on November 18th, 2008:

    Oh, hafta disagree about “Send in the Clowns.”

    Sinatra’s version is terrible, as he utterly misses the point of the song (mostly the vulnerabilty of opening yourself to another person. Frankie wasn’t much for vulnerability.). I can only take it from the post, Joe, that you have never seen “A Little Night Music,” or at least not a good production.

    In the context of the show, the song can be shattering.

    Hey, even Sinatra can’t win ‘em all.

  8. 8: Professor McGonagle said at 2:07 am on November 18th, 2008:

    And if you want to get nit-picky, he has also played in home-run friendly parks his entire career. Camden and Yankee Stadium are both more prone to the long ball than most places.

    Home run friendly parks + home run friendly decade = slightly more runs allowed. Certainly not enough to tie him with Marichal, but maybe he’d be a couple of wins closer to 300 and have another 20-win season or two under his belt.

    I hope he does come back, and for two more years, not just one. Two years would be enough to get him 300 wins and 3,000 strikeouts, and then you’d pretty much have to let him in, yah?

    I’m on board.

  9. 9: Paul O. said at 6:28 am on November 18th, 2008:

    And then Scully was silent for 38 seconds.

    There’s a first time for everything. (How do you italicize a quote on this blog?)

  10. 10: Colin said at 7:45 am on November 18th, 2008:

    Wow, Scott Ferrall. His talk show in the mid-to-late 90s was great…last I’ve seen of him, he was a commentator for some pro wrestling/American Gladiators-ripoff show.

  11. 11: Paul White said at 7:47 am on November 18th, 2008:

    Personally, I think it’s still a pretty sad commentary that Mussina’s drive to win 20 games last year was perpetually framed as the chance for him to cap his HOF credentials. As if winning one fewer game in what turned out to be a meaningless September for his team should somehow effect how his entire career is viewed.

  12. 12: Oddibe Kerfeld said at 7:57 am on November 18th, 2008:

    I agree that Mussina is a HOFer, but what about Moose Haas? Did you know that he had a black belt in Tae Kwon Do and worked as a locksmith in the off season? That’s what his Complete Handbook of Baseball bio said around 1986.

  13. 13: Bill said at 8:32 am on November 18th, 2008:

    Wow…okay, yeah, Sinatra didn’t do a great job with that song, and it’s not Sondheim’s best work either. But Sinatra doesn’t “MURDER” songs, and Sondheim has never written a lousy one. He’s just usually not…croonable. It’s musical theater, not a lounge act (and, again, I love Francis Albert…just sayin’, it’s not his cup of tea).

    Glenn Close did a great live version of “Clowns.” You have to be able to sing a little, but Sondheim’s work usually needs to be more acted than sung. And Frankie could act, too, but I’m not sure he could ever do both at the same time.
    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5248140457105105011

    I don’t think Mussina will have a hard time getting into the Hall now that he’s got that magical-for-some-reason 20-win season. I think he deserved it BEFORE the last game of this past season, too.

  14. 14: gogiggs said at 8:36 am on November 18th, 2008:

    You know, it’s just that writers like Poz… you know… they get all they want so they really don’t understand, you know… about a life like Frank’s. I mean, when you’ve loved and lost the way Frank has, then you, uh, you know what life’s about.

  15. 15: john q public said at 8:39 am on November 18th, 2008:

    Comments.
    Love the Boss reference. Its my favorite of his intros. The end comes at you sideways and always catches me off guard.
    I live in Baltimore, and I’ve watched Mussina pitch his entire career.
    He’s a guy I’ve always felt ambivalent about. He has fantastic stuff, no question about it, but he’s never quite passed the sniff test for me.
    I think much of the reason for that is two fold.
    He’s never been considered the top pitcher in the game, and for most of his career, I think he isn’t even in the top four (Pedro, Maddux, Clemens, Unit, and a case could be made for Glavine, Smoltz, et. al…). I’d have to do a year by year breakdown but I suspect he hasn’t been among the top 5 pitchers in more than maybe two years.
    Secondly, and this one kind of sticks, the man just has never seemed comfortable being an ace.
    His stats are building up and I’ve always thought that he, along with Schilling, would provide difficulties for voters.
    Now that he’s won twenty I think he’s in.
    Agreed that one game shouldn’t make such a difference, but it does, and will, to the voters.
    that, and the lack of a ring, were the primary things that opponents pointed at.
    Now that its gone, i suspect he’s gonna go.

  16. 16: Jim Haas said at 9:07 am on November 18th, 2008:

    @ KERFELD:

    I’m not much for collecting stuff, but I do have an autographed photo of Moose Haas. Saw him play (after a fashion) in an old-timer’s game in M’waukee some years ago. Nice guy.

  17. 17: Geoff said at 9:16 am on November 18th, 2008:

    Senator Red Hot Poker…that’s fantastic…

  18. 18: erik in NYC said at 9:22 am on November 18th, 2008:

    gotta go with broadway jon. if you’ve ever seen the footage of (yes) Judi Dench singing ’send in the clowns’ during her rehearsals for ‘a little night music’, you’d not have written that the song is a clunker. or maybe you would. what do i know, really?

    can’t find it on youtube, but here’s a clip of her putting the song in context and then singing it on british television.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0rEhOnd8S-8&feature=related

    now, i’ll go back to reading about sports and playing big buck hunter…

  19. 19: Jim C said at 9:22 am on November 18th, 2008:

    Well, as long as they call it the Hall fo Fame, then no Mussina. If they call it “Hall of Better Than Average” he’s welcome. He’s been very good for a long time. Certainly praiseworthy. But HOF had better be more than B+ for 20 years. (I know it’s not, but, well, I’d prefer it to be.)

  20. 20: Larry said at 9:28 am on November 18th, 2008:

    There’s a lot to say about Moose, and I don’t think I have the time. I was a big Orioles fan growing up (I decided Cal was my favorite player in 1988, when I was 7 and stuck with that) and Moose was clearly my favorite player of the 90s (Cal was still my favorite player of all time, but age had definitely caught up to him).

    Anyhow, all Mussina did for the O’s was win and win, and pitch brillaintly. People remember the Indians in 1997, but they only got to the Series because the O’s bullpen *cough*Armando Benitez*cough* blew two Mussina gems in extra innings (I may have the details wrong, but I think Mosse set the record for strikeouts in a LCS with 15 in 7 innings one game that series). Also, there are the multiple near-perfect games (he had the one for the Yanks that Carl Everett broke up on a 1-2 count with 2 outs in the 9th, but he also had one or two others for the O’s that lasted until the 8th or 9th inning).

    Lastly, the 20-win thing… people seem to forget that he won 19 games in 1995, which as it happens, was a strike shortened year (he was also 4th in ERA, 2nd in WHIP and 1st in shutouts that year). But he was overshadowed by the monster years that Johnson had (in the AL) and Maddux had (in the NL). How he finished 5th in the Cy Young voting that year (behind 2nd place Jose Mesa and 3rd place Tim Wakefield[!]) is beyond me.

    The only thing I can figure is that he got lost in the glare of New York. Of course, he didn’t have his best years with the Yanks – and, in fact, threw out some really bad years and some really bad big game performances – so that probably has a lot to do with people’s perceptions. Being on Baltimore when he was at his best probably hurts him too, because people don’t pay attention to the O’s like they did the Yanks or Red Sox.

    Looking at Moose’s career in New York always made me wonder, though, what it is about the Yankees that causes pitchers to underperform? I can’t be the only one who noticed it… when big pitchers go to the Yanks (think Moose, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens), they tend to have worse years. Is it because the Yanks pluck them a year too late (probably not, because they usualy end up performing well after leaving the club)? or is it because the New York spotlight is too bright (possibly)? Or is it because Mel Stottlemyre was never much of a pitching coach (which was always my pet theory)? Thoughts?

    Like I said, there’s probably a lot more I could say, but this is already too much…

  21. 21: stepbaker said at 9:30 am on November 18th, 2008:

    I grew up in Baltimore, and I’m gonna respectfully disagree with John Q Public. Moose felt like a Hall of Famer when he pitched for the O’s, especially during his epic 1997 playoff performance, which was entirely wasted by the O’s. 2 GS, 15 IP, 1 ER, 25 K, 4 BB, and a 0.60 ERA… and an 0-0 record. The O’s even lost both of those games, especially that Game 6 in which the O’s got TEN hits and lost 1-0 in 11 innings when Tony F’n Fernandez hit a home run off of Benitez… I can’t even talk about it rationally.

    I also remember when Moose got hit in the face by the line drive and my first thought was, “there goes his career”, but Moose admirably got back in there and showed no ill effect of getting his face smashed in by a speeding baseball. I don’t even think he went on the DL. He’s the only Yankee I’ve ever liked.

  22. 22: Josh in DC said at 9:54 am on November 18th, 2008:

    Dammit, Jim C! I was going to make a reference to the Hall of Very Good! (Of course, I would have been joking.) It’s not fair! It would have been my way of saying “FIRST!”

  23. 23: Bill said at 9:58 am on November 18th, 2008:

    Erik in NYC, thanks for the Judy Dench clip. So much of Sondheim’s work, surprisingly (or, um, not), was written for, or sounds best performed by, older women, and ones who are primarily actors. Elaine Stritch “singing” “Ladies Who Lunch” is one of my favorite things ever: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qNJupQTW8I&feature=related (actual “singing” starts at like 2:15).

    Wow off topic. Um… Send in the Clowns is a good song. The “wow” factor is seriously overplayed as a HOF factor…very few of them really had it when they played, and most acquired it retrospectively, by virtue of actually being named to the Hall — when they played, they were just damned good ballplayers, but once they’re HALL OF FAMERS, they get this sort of mystical quality. Mussina was a bona fide ace throughout the 90’s, not by any means a mere compiler (though, Jim C., it’s awfully hard to be a B+ for 20 years, and I’d probably put him in even if that was all he was).

  24. 24: Thomas said at 10:05 am on November 18th, 2008:

    I originally thought the 2 pitchers you were comparing were Schilling and Mussina. Anyone care to dig up the numbers there? I don’t feel like clicking over to b-r and losing 3 hours of my day.

    But my thought about Moose is always this: if you were the opposing team facing him during a pennant race, were you ever frightened that you wouldn’t be able to get to him? He never had that invincible aura about him that the top pitchers of the day (Unit, Pedro, Clemens/Steroids, Schilling, Maddux) had. I know this is a rather weak argument against him, but it fits in there somewhere doesn’t it?

  25. 25: Gate said at 10:08 am on November 18th, 2008:

    So if Mussina’s in on the 1st ballot for the Hall of Better than Average, is he a lock for the Hall of Very Good?

    Thinking that a better ERA+ than Carlton is a pretty good HOF standard, I was just perusing the career leaders on baseball reference. Wow – did not expect to see things like John Franco as number 19 all time, or Dave Dravecky tied with Carlton. I think I need a new standard.

    Dave Dravecky is definitely in the Hall of Better than Average.

  26. 26: Bellylard said at 10:18 am on November 18th, 2008:

    Krusty did the seminal version of Send In The Clowns. Sinatra really murders George Harrison’s Something though – I definitely prefer the Nelson Riddle/Billy May big band and concept album Sinatra years. It’s down to taste, because Sinatra did several torch song albums, Wee Small Hours works okay because it’s before all the strings were attached, and came right after Ava dumped him.

    Mussina should be in the hall, there has to be a commensurate bonus given to pitchers (who have pristine chemical reputations) going against these behemoth sluggers if we’re going to penalize the hitters for juicing. When you consider how much the knuckle-curve breaks, his control is even more remarkable. He was in the top 10 K/BB ratio for 13 straight years with 11 of those being in the top five.

  27. 27: Bill said at 10:20 am on November 18th, 2008:

    Thomas, it’s a similar comparison–Schilling’s ERA+ is actually better (127 to 123), but I think Moose deserves extra credit for pitching for his whole career in the AL East, mostly during the Unbalanced Schedule Era–all those games against the Red Sox and Yankees make his “average” different that someone who pitched in Central or West during that time period. Moose has 56 more wins and 300 more innings, but Schilling’s best single seasons were more dominant than Mussina’s. Schilling has more Ks and fewer walks, but they both have lots of one and few of the other, Moose gave up just a sliver fewer HR per 9. I don’t have a problem with either going in, but I’d put Mussina in first based on the innings and consistency. Mussina was a full-time starter at 23, and Schilling had pitched 200 innings only twice by age 30. It’s close, though.

    Gate- it’s a good standard with a measure of common sense mixed in. Their cutoff is 1000 innings, isn’t it? Dravecky and Franco just barely clear the bar, while Mussina, Schilling, Carlton et al. all hit that at least three times over (five times in Lefty’s case).

  28. 28: Mike said at 10:35 am on November 18th, 2008:

    THT says Mussina has 274 win shares not 270. I know that is an very small difference, but I’m compulsive about that type of stuff.

  29. 29: Brent said at 10:52 am on November 18th, 2008:

    I would respectfully point out that Cy Young (for his era) was B+ for 20+ years.

  30. 30: Gate said at 11:13 am on November 18th, 2008:

    Baseball reference needs an IP+ stat, otherwise it’s hard to come up with a leader board that doesn’t overvalue the likes of Old Hoss Radburn or John Franco.

    Although you still need to be able to sort out guys like Mickey McDermott who were good for very short periods of time. Not sure how to do that…

  31. 31: Paul said at 11:34 am on November 18th, 2008:

    Don’t you have Sirius? Scott Ferrall has a show on one of the Howard Stern channels.

  32. 32: Pronk said at 12:43 pm on November 18th, 2008:

    Since Joe is putting most of his focus on ERA+, here are some ERA+ numbers for “Pitcher C”:

    Career: 127 in 3,256 innings.
    Top 7 seasons:

    216
    169
    169
    164
    150
    143
    132

    Pitcher C is Kevin Brown.

  33. 33: Charlie said at 2:12 pm on November 18th, 2008:

    In reference to Thomas’ comment above wherein it was suggested that perhaps teams weren’t afraid of him in a “big game” situation (or words to that effect). Obviously I can’t speak for the teams, but as a fan of the Red Sox, I can certainly say that I thought the Sox chances of being shut down by Mussina were enough for me to be afraid as a fan. I suppose that’s colored by the near miss perfect game Everett broke up, but it seems to me he had a number of dominant performances.

  34. 34: Paul White said at 2:48 pm on November 18th, 2008:

    “But HOF had better be more than B+ for 20 years. (I know it’s not, but, well, I’d prefer it to be.)”

    And therein lies the problem. There are all sorts of people, including a healthy percentage of actual voters, who still judge a player’s HOF worthiness based on what they think the HOF should be, rather than basing it on what the HOF actually is. Hence the low vote totals for Blyleven, Trammell, Santo, et al. The Hall is far more accepting than most people care to acknowledge. They’ve never thrown out or refused to accept a single elected player no matter how preposterous his election may seem, and they have chosen, repeatedly, to perpetuate the various versions of the Veteran’s Committee to keep the doors opened wider than the BBWAA would like. In short, the HOF wants to be on the biggish side, and since it’s their Hall, who are we to argue with that?

  35. 35: Chris Collis said at 3:15 pm on November 18th, 2008:

    If Mussina gets in and Jack Morris is left out will be another example of New York biasness. Morris was one the greatest post season pitchers with three rings, most victories in the 80’s and because he was a “jerk” barely gets a sniff. The fact that Trammell is not in compared to Ozzie Smith’s numbers is a joke.

  36. 36: Mikey said at 3:28 pm on November 18th, 2008:

    Best line in Diner:

    “You ever get the feeling there’s something going on we don’t know about?”

    Sums up the whole movie.

    Diner is criminally unknown by guys under 30. If you want to do a young guy a favor tell him to netflix this phenomenal movie.

  37. 37: Mikey said at 3:32 pm on November 18th, 2008:

    The Jack Ruby line is great.

    Watch some of that footage of the immediate aftermath of the assassination and you will see TONS of media in places they would never get near today. What a clusterf*ck. Amazing to look back to an era when nobody had even thought about how to manage media access during a crisis.

    For example, the only suspect in the murder of the President taking questions from the press in a hallway the day after the killing. Are you kidding?!?!? How was that EVER allowed to happen? But it did. What a different world.

  38. 38: Josh in DC said at 4:02 pm on November 18th, 2008:

    Can’t tell you how excited I am that someone brought up Jack Morris.

  39. 39: astorian said at 4:09 pm on November 18th, 2008:

    I remember Dennis Miller’s Jack Ruby routine, and it was hilarious. But if you want a factual explanation…

    Jack Ruby was “allowed” into the Dallas police headquarters because he’d long been a fixture there. He was a longtime police “buff,” and he’d been hanging around headquarters, schmoozing with cops, on and off for ages. The cops all knew him, and regarded him as a harmless clown. When he showed up at headquarters after Jack Ruby’s arrest, nobody bothered to stop him or frisk him because every cop who saw him merely shruggged and thought, “Oh, it’s just just Jack again.”

    Even after he killed Lee Harvey Oswald, nobody in the Dallas police department took him seriously. When it was suggested to the Dallas police chief that Ruby might have murdered Oswald at the Mob’s request, the chief scoffed, “If Jack Ruby was in the Mafia, the Mafia needs a new Personnel Director.”

    *

    ChrisCollis: I hear all the time what a great “money pitcher” Jack Morris was, and how dominant he was in the post-season. But if you look at his career stats, he had a 7-4 career record in the post-season, with an ERA of 3.80.

    Not bad, but not dominant by any means. Support Morris for the Hall of Fame, if you wish, but don’t try to sell him on the basis of his post-eason performances.

  40. 40: Richard Aronson said at 6:43 pm on November 18th, 2008:

    Like it or not, we have seen the HOF standards set in two ways. On one end is folks who exhibited all time dominance for long enough (at least five years). I’ll define dominance as somebody who gets MVP or CYA consideration. On the other end is guys who exhibited excellence for a long time, generally at least fifteen seasons. I’ll define excellence as guys who might get All Star team consideration. And both types are well represented in the HOF. It’s almost as if Fame is something you accumulate each year, either a little bit at a time for a long time (Don Sutton) or a lot at a time for a short time (Sandy Koufax). I’m not talking about the truly great players, the first ballot HOF guys like Maddux was and Bonds would be if he hadn’t taken steroids. I’m talking about the rest of the guys, because if we limited HOF membership to the truly great instead of the merely famous, we’d have to throw out about 80% of the members of the HOF.

    Given that that is a long time accepted standard for HOF membership, on what basis do you exclude Mike Mussina? On the basis that that should *not* be the standard? Give it up: too many guys have made the HOF on the basis of counting stats to make that a legitimate argument. That ship has sailed. Because, and lets face it, you do accumulate fame in a bunch of 15-11 seasons, putting up lots of quality starts year in and year out. When Maddux set the record for consecutive 15 win seasons, it was clear that being a guy you could count on, even if you were no longer a top of the rotation guy, you were adding to your fame.

    I’m not a big Mike Mussina fan, but for me, as a starting pitcher in the longevity class, career ERA+ of 120 is my break point before I’d consider you. Nine times Mussina finished in the top six in CYA voting. If it were ten, I’d think it would be a no brainer. I don’t see how anybody could argue that a top 6 season in CYA in your league isn’t a season of significant fame value. In the 14 team AL, given that every team uses at least four starters and one closer, that’s 70 pitchers of significant CYA consideration; to finish in the top 6 is an “A” season by any standard (unless the CYA is meaningless, which is a different argument). So I’d vote for Mussina for HOF, if I had a vote… after Blyleven gets in.

    And much as I hate to say it, Kevin Brown probably deserves HOF consideration. He won’t, because he’s hated in the two biggest cities in the country. But a career ERA+ of 127, given that ERA+ is *not* a linear stat, is awfully good. It’s 51st best all time. He threw 300 fewer innings than Mussina, but he was better in the innings he threw. He, he, naw. Brown was the bone Fox threw to us Dodger fans and completely choking on the Piazza trade. But still: he was aging in LA, but he put up three seasons of ERA+ 143 or better of 211 innings or more. So I’ll abstain on Brown. It’s clear he’s gotten a bad rap (best four seasons of ERA+ were 216, 169, 169, 164, all better than Moose) . I’ll bet Brown never makes it into the HOF. But I’m finding it hard to think he wasn’t a better pitcher than Mussina.

  41. 41: Sox Fan Sammy said at 9:22 pm on November 18th, 2008:

    If he didn’t win 20 this year, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation, Mussina is in no way a Hall of famer, but sadly, somehow Don Sutton got in, so that makes people think Mussina belongs. He doesn’t. He was never looked at as a stopper, or even an ace (the pathetic Orioles don’t count), while jack Morris was both. Jack’s biggest liability is his ERA, which is too bad, because it always seemed in a big game, no matter how many runs the other pitcher gave up, he usually gave up less. Does Mike Mussina win a game 7 in a World Series with a performance like Jack Morris, either as a young buck or a wily vet? I’m not even going to dignify that question by typing an answer, because any real fan of baseball knows that answer with no thought required. Shame on you Joe for going all seamhead with this one, I thought better of you.

    And for the guy who said jack Morris was a jerk while extolling his virtues, just remember, Mussina is pretty much a jerk as well.

  42. 42: Dr.Funkenstein said at 12:45 am on November 19th, 2008:

    hey Sox Fan Sammy…with the demise of FJM, are you purposely flooding the net would un-enlightened, poorly written drivel?

    “I’ll buy THAT for a dollar!”

  43. 43: Godfrey Simmons said at 1:50 am on November 19th, 2008:

    Sox Fan Sammy, you’ve obviously got some kind of issue with Mussina. I’m not sure why, but let’s look at the facts. In 2001, Mussina’s first year with the Yanks, after ten years with the “pathetic” Orioles (where he set a postseason LCS record that has been tied, never broken), Mussina pitched more innings than Clemens (he was second in the AL), had a lower ERA (3.15 to 3.51), and believe it or not, struck more guys out (214 to 213). He had a better season pitching than Clemens. But Clemens wins 20 games and loses 3. Mussina wins 17 and loses 11. Clemens didn’t win those games because he was dominant, he won them because he got run support. Mussina was clearly the best OVERALL pitcher that year, but got nary a Cy Young Vote. Then he saves the Yankee season with 7 one-run innings against the A’s IN Oakland, in his first Yankee post season start. What’s that? A small game? Mussina’s prime years between age 28 and 35 were in the teeth of the steroid era — both Clemens’, Maddux’s and Johnson’s were earlier and Maddux, Johnson, Martinez and Glavine pitched mostly in the pitcher bats ninth National League. And it’s been well documented that postseason pitching success has a heckava lot more to do with luck than anything else. To pitch, DOMINATE, a playoff series like Mussina dominated the Indians in 1997, (has anyone struck out 41 batters over the course of 4 playoff games in the same postseason?) and to not only get a no decision, but your team loses the game is bad luck for the pitcher. Morris had help in that Game 7 — his team scored a run in the tenth inning.

    The difference between Mussina and EVERY OTHER PITCHER THAT HE WILL BE COMPARED TO IN HIS TIME is that he is the only one to pitch his ENTIRE career in the American League. The only one. There are only six guys who have more American League victories than Mussina, and they are all in the HOF. The two guys behind him are too. Mussina will be a litmus test as to how pitchers subjected to the steroid era hitters will be viewed in deciding on HOF status. Obviously he’s not first ballot, or even second ballot. But you can’t say that some numbers matter and some don’t. You can’t pick and choose when you say “he doesn’t feel like a Hall of Famer to me” or “I know it when I see it.”

    Anyone who averages 15 wins a season from 1991-2008 is a Hall of Famer. Period.

  44. 44: Kyle Litke said at 3:03 am on November 19th, 2008:

    Sox Fan Sammy, sounds like you got some major bias going on that you’re trying to shove into the conversation by claiming it’s “obvious” or “any baseball fan should know”.

    Mussina had some poor playoff performances…he also had some great ones. The “Jeter Flip” game, Moose was the one pitching the shutout that kept them in it. The “Aaron Boone walkoff game” in 2003, I find it a little sad that it’s forgotten that Clemens left the game with a first and third nobody out jam, and Mussina came in, escaped without allowing a run, then pitched 2 more scoreless innings to give the Yankees a chance to come back. Mussina was what 99% of guys are…someone who pitched like they always did in October. Sometimes good, sometimes bad.

    As for him being a jerk, he can be cranky at times but with the exception of Michael Kay, I really don’t recall any sportswriters ripping him like I’ve heard them rip other players. From everything I’ve heard Mussina is someone who doesn’t like “stupid” questions and will call you out on it, but he’s also someone who is willing to sit down and talk to the reporters, who will joke around with them, who appreciates a good question.

    I thought he was a Hall of Famer before this year, and I still think so.

    Also, to Larry, I wouldn’t say he hugely underperformed in New York. I mean, obviously he wasn’t quite what the Yankees hoped, but he was a solid #2 starter and occasionally better for most of the time with the Yankees, with the exception of his bad 2007 and his injury plagued 2004 and 2005. Frankly, with some of the bad pitching decisions the Yanks have made in recent years, Moose’s contract looks amazing by comparison. At least he threw 150+ innings every year with the Yankees, and more often than not they were effective, strong innings. Even his three mediocre to poor seasons with the Yankees he managed at least 10 wins and didn’t have a losing record…the other years he won 15 or more.

    And for the “New York” thing, I think it’s a bit overblown. There’s not much of a mystery I don’t think…the Yankees are just getting these guys a little too late in most cases. Mussina actually had an ERA of 142 his first season with the Yankees. Johnson wasn’t quite as bad as people make him out to be his first season with the Yankees…it certainly wasn’t anywhere close to his 2004 with Arizona, but it wasn’t terrible. There was just a lot of expectation. Then his back pretty much stopped working properly in 2006 and he lost it. The fact that he’s continued to be merely decent in Arizona probably shows Johnson just plain got old.

    Hopefully, should CC sign with the Yankees, he won’t be “too old”. ;)

  45. 45: Kyle Litke said at 3:16 am on November 19th, 2008:

    Godfrey, to elaborate on that 2001 game, it was not only his first postseason game but it was a “Win or go home” game after the Yankees lost the first two games of the series. Also, it was 7 innings of NO run ball rather than 1…that was the game remembered for the “Jeter Flip” (kind of funny actually how one of the reasons Moose isn’t thought of as even being decent in the postseason is because his best performances have something else overshadowing them, such as the flip play or the Aaron Boone walkoff). Also as you eluded to, in 1997’s ALCS he pitched 15 innings, giving up only a single run and only 4 hits (!). Those aren’t big games? Come on. How about the 2003 World Series? Everyone remembers Beckett’s huge Game 6 to win it all, but does anyone remember Beckett in Game 3? No, they don’t, because Mussina beat him, giving up 1 run in 7 innings.

    Or if you want regular season big games, Moose would beat Pedro Martinez pretty consistently in matchups between the Red Sox and Yankees, and it wasn’t always due to the Yankees hitting Pedro well.

    Yes, he also had some mediocre to poor postseason performances…99% of guys will. Some guys “turn it up” in the postseason (personally that’s always bugged me a little…when someone claims there’s a player who is so much better in the postseason, doesn’t that imply they’re not giving it their all at other times? I don’t think it’s much of a compliment to be honest), but most just put up their usual numbers. Mussina’s win/loss record in the postseason isn’t good, but his career playoff ERA is 3.42. He certainly doesn’t belong in the conversation with guys like Smoltz as big game pitchers, but the idea that Mussina was bad in the postseason is a joke.

  46. 46: Ken Burke said at 8:12 am on November 19th, 2008:

    A certain Fox commentator remarked during a game this year that all pitchers who had ended their careers with W-L records 100 or more games over .500 were in the hall. I emailed him specifically re:Mussina and the answer was he needs 300 wins to get in. Joe- thanks for your thoughtful and much needed analysis about a great pitcher.

  47. 47: gogiggs said at 8:28 am on November 19th, 2008:

    Darn nice posts, Godfrey and Kyle. As for Sox Fan Sammy, I’m assuming that’s a deliberate parody of ignorance, mainly because it’s less depressing.

  48. 48: sidd finch said at 9:58 am on November 19th, 2008:

    Joe, Check out Scott Ferrall on ‘The Wheelhouse’ on SNY, next time you are in New York. I’m not sure his schtick ever worked.

  49. 49: sidd finch said at 9:59 am on November 19th, 2008:

    Sounds like the Royals just got Coco from the Sawx for Ramon Ramirez.

  50. 50: Kevin S. said at 9:09 pm on November 19th, 2008:

    Joe, love your work, but there are a couple of very interesting stats you left out in the comparison:

    Marichal: 11 times All-star (started game twice)
    Mussina: 5 times All-star (never started)

    Marichal: 1 time top 10 Cy Young voting
    Mussina: 9 times top 10 Cy Young voting (all in top ^6)

    Isn’t that weird? I’m not sure what to make of it…

  51. 51: Wickethewok said at 10:03 am on November 20th, 2008:

    As Pronk points out above, Kevin Brown’s overall numbers don’t stack up too poorly against Mussina. Additionally, his ERA/ERA+ is substantially better than Glavine’s. I’m not quite sure where the HoF cutoff is here.

    Also, I didn’t realize Glavine had such extremely pedestrian 5.3 K/9 and 3.06 BB/9 ratios. It’s impressive that he’s been able to be as successful as he has with those numbers.

  52. 52: David in NYC said at 12:58 pm on November 20th, 2008:

    Moose is actually 7th in all-time AL wins (Johnson, Clemens, Plank, Wynn, Grove, Ruffing, in order ahead of him).

    And, Joe, I am surprised you didn’t do this while you were researching at BB-Ref: if you neutralize their stats, you get this:

    ERA
    Marichal 3.22
    Mussina 3.25

    WHIP
    Marichal 1.176
    Mussina 1.111

    W-L/Pct
    Marichal 230-148/.607
    Mussina 247-161/.605

    There really isn’t a dime’s worth of difference between them statistically — so why was Marichal considered a mortal lock for the HoF when he retired, and we are all here debating whether Mussina should even be in the conversation?

    As for his crankiness, I think Kyle Litke correctly described it as a lack of patience with stupid questions (I know how he feels). Wallace Matthews makes a similar point in today’s Newsday:

    http://tinyurl.com/5a5h7v

    He gets my vote (if I had one).

  53. 53: The Girl Who Loved Andy Pettitte » Blog Archive » Pro Mike Mussina Hall of Fame Argument Round-Up said at 6:17 pm on November 20th, 2008:

    [...] It’s officially five years away but there’s already some talk about whether Moose is a Hall of Fame caliber pitcher or not. I happen to believe that he is. One thing that I hate is when people try pluck a random once in a lifetime talent out of the air and say “Well, he’s not as good as this guy!”. Yes, he’s not as good as Sandy Koufax but isn’t that a little unfair? You could, however, say with a straight face he is about as good as Juan Marichal. [...]

  54. 54: c r said at 12:43 am on November 22nd, 2008:

    One thing i have yet to hear anyone mention . . . which probably means i haven’t read enough, but here goes.

    When it comes time to vote on Mussina, the writers will remember that not only did he pitch in a high-run era, he pitched in the STEROIDS era. As it will hurt hitters who have put up numbers (Jim Thome?), this fact will help pitchers. Sets the context of his numbers in a very different light.

  55. 55: KHAZAD said at 2:00 am on November 24th, 2008:

    Bert Blyleven is the single biggest omission in the HOF

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