Not So Hot Stove Talk
Posted: November 6th, 2008 | Filed under: Baseball | 67 Comments »
Wow, yeah, the commenting on that last post got pretty nasty — probably the nastiest I’ve seen round these parts since the great Chief Wahoo debate. No, really, it got even nastier than that. I even had to delete two comments that broke my Hitler rule — first time I’ve ever had to do that. Finally, as you may have seen, I just closed it off. The talk was going nowhere but down. I saw Tuesday as a day to say, regardless of politics, “Look how far America has come.” Others saw it as a day when the majority of Americans were duped by a potentially sinister force. Everyone has had their say now. We’ll go back to baseball.
Emotional times.
* * *
So you know that Royals GM Dayton Moore has talked pointedly about improving the Kansas City Royals on-base percentage in 2009. And then you know the Royals traded for Mike Jacobs, a first baseman who had a .299 on-base percentage last year. I didn’t like the move at all — not so much because of the specific trade itself but because I think that every baseball move, especially relatively major moves that will affect the big league club, should fit into a larger plan. My gut feeling is that this did not fit into any plan. My gut feeling is that some people in the organization kind of liked Mike Jacobs, the 32 homers he hit last year looked juicy, and they grabbed him. I think that sort of narrow strategy fails more than it succeeds.*
*And I know some people see Jacobs as a future trade chip … I don’t see that at all. The Royals got Jacobs for a reliever who doesn’t strike out batters and has had injury issues. What makes anyone think that teams out there at deadline time will be dying to get Mike Jacobs?
But Jacobs is just one man. Here are three Hot Stove rumors the Royals have been involved with:
1. A trade for Jeff Francoeur (A pitcher like Luke Hochevar?).
2. A trade for Yuniesky Betancourt (Billy Butler?).
3. A trade for someone like Cleveland’s Franklin Gutierrez (Mark Teahen?)
Now, let’s say right up front that NONE of these will happen. Right? Please? Trades are tough to pull off, and I would like to believe that this is just idle talk, and the Royals don’t really want to make any of those moves. Frankly. if the Royals really would trade to get 28-year-old arbitration eligible Mike Jacobs and then trade away 22-year-old Billy Butler … well, they wouldn’t. I feel confident in saying they woudn’t do that. They just wouldnt’ do that. And also, they would not do that.
But let’s say that these rumors are based in some reality — let’s say that the Royals have at least thought seriously about each of these moves. That — the idea that the Royals actually would TARGET these players — is a much, much scarier proposition that just dealing for Mike Jacobs. Heck, even I’ll admit that Jacobs could help the club — especially if the Royals would limit his at-bats (never, and I mean NEVER put him out there against a lefty), if they would bat him down in the lineup, if they would limit his exposure at first base. I don’t think the Royals will do these things, but they certainly could.
Thing is, if the Royals really want Francoeur and Betancourt and Gutierrez — um, that’s a very, very bad sign that the on-base percentage talk is just talk. Imagine this lineup:
LF: David DeJesus (.360 lifetime on-base percentage)
2B: Mike Aviles (.354 — in 419 career at-bats)
RF: Jeff Francoeur (.312)
DH: Jose Guillen (.323 and falling fast)
1B: Mike Jacobs (.318 — and OBP has fallen every season in the big leagues)
3B: Alex Gordon (.332 though improving — he could move up in the lineup)
CF: Franklin Gutierrez (.308 — in 807 at-bats)
C: Miguel Olivo (.275 OBP — the Royals just named him the starter).
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt (.305 OBP)
This, we are led to believe, is the Royals dream lineup for 2009. That’s just about as bad an OBP lineup as you could possibly put out there without creating an actual mutiny. I think I know Dayton Moore. He just wouldn’t do that. Yes, he traded for Mike Jacobs. Yes they re-signed Miguel Olivo and named him the starter. Yes these rumors are more than a little bit scary. But … I think that Dayton is a smart baseball man. I think he’s just a bit frustrated last season did not go better and he’s eager to do SOMETHING and that has made him a little bit edgy to start the off-season. I expect he will settle in. The Royals really do have a promising team right now — Bill James says they could win 85 to 90 games next year with what they already have. I’m not sure I’m willing to go to 90 games, but with some breaks I think they could break .500. Just: Stay with the plan.
Remember: OBP. OBP. OBP.
* * *
OK, so Jeff Francoeur had a 72 OPS+ last year, which is, well, you know, abysmal. My question is: Can he really rebound from that? I hear from numerous scouts that he will because of, you know, his will, his leadership, his intensity, whatever. But that’s not my question. What I mean is, historically, has any young outfielder ever had a 72 OPS+ type season and then gone on to great success?
Well, it seems that nineteen young outfielders (25 and younger) have had a 75 OPS+ or worse since the end of World War II.
Of the 19, Johnny Damon (who had a 73 OPS+ his first full season) went on to a great career. Of course, Damon is a very different player from Francoeur and he also had his dreadful season when he was, essentially, a rookie. Lloyd Moseby and Brian McRae had some good seasons after their bad one.
Who else/ Endy Chavez made a really nice catch in the playoffs. Omar Moreno led the league in plate appearances, stolen bases, outs and caught stealing multiple times. Juan Pierre became Juan Pierre.
Vince Coleman stole a lot of bases.
Del Unser proved useful in a part-time role later in his career. Dan Meyer was even better than useful for expansion Seattle in ‘77 — he fought with Ruppert Jones and Leroy Stanton for the MVP of that first Mariners team (Stanton probably was the MVP).
Rick Manning (who TWICE sunk below 75 OPS+ before he was 26) proved to be a hero to a certain politically-challenged blogger, and Willy Taveras (who also went sub-75 twice) inspired this Buck O’Neil exchange:
Buck: This guy looks like Willie Mays.
Me: Really? This guy? You think so?
Buck: No, I mean he LOOKS like Willie Mays. Look at his face.
Darren Lewis managed to get 4,081 at-bats with a career OPS+ of 72. That’s flat amazing stuff.
Most career at-bats for an outfielder with a sub-75 OPS+.
1. Darren Lewis, 4,081
2. Tom Goodwin, 3,846
3. Brian Hunter, 3,347
4. Tony Scott, 2,804
5. Eric Owens, 2,353
Jim Busby hit .300 one year, hit 12 homers one year, stole 26 bases one year. They weren’t the same year.
Chuck Carr stole 58 bases the year he had a 74 OPS+ so he was given another thousand or so at-bats. Rick Bosetti was never given another chance. Mike Hershberger stuck around for quite a while and had a nice year as a part-timer with Oakland in ‘68. Eric Yelding stole 64 bases, which allowed him to get a few more at-bats despite his lifetime 66 OPS+. Peter Bergeron petered out badly — he followed his awful full season with a .211/.275/.285 in 375 at-bats.
Whitey Herzog learned to walk in part-time duty and became an excellent manager.
So, based on this, I would say that based on precedent, no, Francoeur cannot come back from this.
* * *
OK, so all along I thought that the reason Derek Jeter kept getting Gold Gloves, against pretty much all logic, was because of his name, his charisma, his batting average, his ability to make that cool-looking jump throw.
But, apparently, it has nothing to do with that. Apparently the reason Derek Jeter kept winning Gold Gloves is … American League managers and coaches have absolutely NO IDEA what a good defensive shortstop looks like.
I say this because they just gave Texas’ Michael Young a Gold Glove. That’s not a misprint. Michael Young.
Here are Michael Young’s Dewan plus/minus numbers the last three years:
2006: -10 (28th in baseball)
2007: -15 (32nd in baseball)
2008: -7 (27th in baseball).
So, according to those numbers, Michael Young has pretty consistently been a well below average defensive shortstop. And that certainly has been his reputation. There are, to be fair, other defensive numbers where Young performs better — his 4.59 range factor this year was fourth among everyday shortstops and he only made 11 errors.
But the reason this one is so shocking is that, as far as I can tell, NOBODY EVER THOUGHT he was a good defensive shortstop. I’m not even considering numbers. That’s based on old-fashioned baseball scouting. The best thing I’ve ever heard a scout say about him is that he’s average defensively. That’s the best thing. Most scouts I’ve talked to think he’s a second baseman masquerading as a shortstop, he doesn’t have the arm for the position, he can’t go to his left at all, he’s shaky going back on pop-ups and so on.
The interesting thing — and the reason that the AL shortstop Gold Glove is such a cluster every year — is that no shortstop in the American League has grabbed the title as a great defensive shortstop. Bill James ranked Erick Aybar as the best defensive shortstop in all of baseball, but he only played 96 games last year. Orlando Cabrera still plays it pretty well, though he’s aging. Do you know who led all American League shortstops in Dewan plus/minus last year? That would be Kansas City’s rookie Mike Aviles.*
*That probably shows there’s a kink in the system — Aviles is adequate at short, I think, because he has a good arm and positions himself pretty well. But I don’t think anyone, including Aviles himself, thinks he’s special defensively.
So, yes, AL Gold Glove at shortstop is definitely a vacant title … but Michael Young? Really?*
*And I should add here that Young did not even have a good offensive season. He hit .284/.339/.402 in a great hitters park.
* * *
Brilliant Reader Justin makes a Gold Glove point that I left out — Pittsburgh center fielder Nate McLouth won a Gold Glove. It might be the worst choice in the history of the award.
From Justin:
Nate McLouth, who at an astounding mind-blowing -40..
that’s MINUS-FORTY…
… in center field, is the proud recipient of an NL gold glove. I think -40 is the very lowest figure in baseball this year at any position; it’s certainly in the bottom five.
In a way this is even worse than giving Rafael Palmeiro a gold glove the year he mostly DH’d, because, you know, at least they didn’t KNOW what kind of fielder Palmeiro was.
Justin is absolutely right. I’m looking at my Dewan Plus/Minus leaders here and Nate McLouth was absolutely the worst defensive player in baseball last year.
Nate McLouth, -40 in center.
Brad Hawpe, -37 in right
Mike Jacobs, -27 at first base (but he hit 32 homers!)
Jim Edmonds, -26 in center (in part because he’s 294 years old)
Delmon Young, -25 in left
Pat Burrell, -20 in left
I’m trying to imagine how this happened, how the single least effective defensive player in the game won a Gold Glove. i think it comes down to a single number: 1. That would be the number of errors Nate McLouth made this year. That means when he got to a ball, he caught it. I’ve always said it: Managers, most of the ones I know, are drawn to players who don’t do stupid things, even if they don’t do especially good things either.
Also Nate did have a nice offensive year.
* * *
I have come up with a new relief pitcher formula that I was going to unveil here but instead I’ll make it a separate post later today.
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The only nasty part of the previous piece was from you Mr. Posnanski. Not everyone appreciates having the media shove the Messiah down our throats.
Editor’s note: Gary, out of respect for your heartfelt opinion, I’m giving you final word on the subject.
“Chuck Carr stole 58 bases the year he had a 74 OPS+ so he was given another thousand or so at-bats.”
Wonder how often Chuckie hacked at the 2-0 pitch. Because that was Chuckie’s game.
I’ve been terrified with each new name that pops up attached to the Royals, for the same reasons you cite above Joe. It’s been so bad that I was actually relieved when I saw Moore say today that the Jacobs move might be his last of the off-season. My first reaction was, “Good, now he can’t go acquire those other stiffs.”
By the way Joe, you seem to have scooped both MLB.com and ESPN.com, because they haven’t listed any of the AL Gold Glove winners yet. Good job.
Finally, boy am I glad I avoided the comments on that last post. Relax everyone. Close your eyes, take a few deep breaths and repeat after me. “Puppy dogs and rainbows, puppy dogs and rainbows, puppy dogs and rainbows…”
Nate McLouth, who at an astounding mind-blowing -40..
that’s MINUS-FORTY…
… in center field, is the proud recipient of an NL gold glove. I think -40 is the very lowest figure in baseball this year at any position; it’s certainly in the bottom five.
In a way this is even worse than giving Rafael Palmeiro a gold glove the year he mostly DH’d, because, you know, at least they didn’t KNOW what kind of fielder Palmeiro was.
“Wonder how often Chuckie hacked at the 2-0 pitch. Because that was Chuckie’s game.”
Not very often, because how often did Chuckie even GET to 2-0?
Poor White Man’s Fever! Catch it!
For God’s sake, Gary, shut up. You just don’t get it…
The Royals are baffling. I live in philly so I only follow them through this blog, but they don’t seem to have much of a clue…Play Butler, Gordon, the big kid in the minors, and the rest of the kids as much as possible. Don’t add any unneccesary payroll and wait for this year’s draft class to mature (it’s supposedly very good). Dayton Moore should give Mike Arbuckle a call if he’s smart. He did a really nice job of drafting the nucleus of the Phils and he just left the club.
Michael Young is an excellent hitter for a shortstop. That is why he won the Gold Glove.
(I am not condoning this, or saying this is an excellent criterion for choosing the Gold Glove. I am telling you that it is a major component.)
Obviously, Jhonny Peralta was ripped off. And his frying pan is so shiny, too!
Joe,
The Dewan numbers you give us are from the new Bill James Fielding Bible, right? You were one of the ten experts who judged all the plays I see.
From what I understand, and I haven’t read the book, the process was for each of you to review every single fielding play and give plus and minuses based on whether or not other players in the league would have made that play or not. Sounds exhaustive and very subjective.
So how is this study any more objective than other fielding studies that have been published? Just because their were ten of you, does that make it a “bible” that we should all live by?
I’m not really knocking it, or you. I was hoping you could write a post about your own experience with this process. That might help.
For what it’s worth, both Karl Rove and George Bush (and a whole bunch of folks all over the political spectrum) echoed sentiments not dissimilar to Joe’s. If you can’t get behind that, then I don’t think you’re right or left. You’re just angry.
As for Joe shoving things . . . , it’s his blog! If you don’t like it, feel free to close your browser tab. It’s quite easy and no one will mind.
I too am full of hope that Dayton Moore will see how badly the Royals have been run these past 8+ years or so, and change, e.g., embrace OBP as a tool to put together a more productive line up. A winning Royals team could only help the Kansas City economy. Of course, we can hope that Dayton will change on his own, or we can email, write, and call the Royals to demand change.
It just takes one voice to change a blog. A blog to change a movement. A movement to change a moribund baseball franchise.
Yes. We. Can.
Royals in 2011!
For his career, Chuck Carr hit .389/.389/.500 in 36 ABs with 0 HR and 1 RBI on 2-0 counts.
I don’t want to be guilty of something Joe’s trying to avoid, but this is a media point, not a political one: I’m pretty sure every other U.S. president was ’shoved down our throats’ the day after he was elected as well. Not really the kind of story you put below the fold on A-16.
You should hope the Royals really aren’t interested in Betancourt. As a resident of the Northwest who sees the Mariners play way too much, let me tell you he’s a liability defensively. He makes the “SportsCenter” plays, but often turns routine grounders into adventures.
Joe, I think you over-simplify it a bit here. Gutierrez is an outstanding defensive player. I don’t know if KC is right that DeJesus is a defensive liability in CF, but they pretty clearly do feel that way… if they’re right, in between adding a good defensive CF and essentially adding a good defensive LF, that will make a big difference on D. Gutierrez is not a bad hitter, either. He might not be any worse than Teahen. If you can get Gutierrez for Teahen, I think you do it.
As for Frenchy, he debuted at 21, which is totally different than a guy like Rick Bosetti who debuts at 24. At that age, just the fact that you’re in the majors at all is a positive sign. Frenchy pretty clearly has a higher ceiling than Omar Moreno/Willy Taveras type players, by virtue of the fact that he can get the ball out of the infield. And he didn’t totally stink on offense until this year, and has won a Gold Glove. I would not trade Hochevar for him… but if the team who owns hm thinks he’s the next Rick Manning, I’m sure getting on the phone with that guy! Now, it’s true that even if Frenchy works out, he’ll probably be in the Jose Guillen mold. But, as with Gutierrez, it doesn’t matter where the runs come from — OBP, SLG, baserunning or defense — as long as they’re there.
As for Betancourt, he stinks… I can’t justify acquiring him at all, much less for Billy frickin’ Butler. Quite frankly, it sounds made up.
I am not too impressed with Moore’s tenure, but at least acquiring Gutierrez or Frenchy has potential to improve the team. I don’t see those moves as similar to acquiring Jacobs. The problem with acquiring Jacobs is that it’s likely to slow the development of the players whom they need to develop. The Royals don’t have young guys like that in the OF whom Gutierrez/Frenchy would be blocking.
“I feel confident in saying they woudn’t do that. They just wouldnt’ do that. And also, they would not do that.”
That’s my thinking, too… I really want Butler, just 22 FREAKIN Years old!, to mature in KC.
I appreciated your post yesterday. Thanks Mr. Posnanski.
On base percentage is not a skill that is usually (ever) acquired after a player’s first ~800 plate appearances. Generally speaking players with “good eyes” bring them to the big leagues – they do not develop them. Hackers stay hackers and unless they have a Ryan Braun-like hit percentage, don’t last long as every day players.
The Royals seem to insist on judging players by the neblus idea of “make up” – The kid LOOKS like a ball player – without considering his base skills. While Jeff Francouer may look more like a player than say, Jack Cust – I would take Jack Cust over Francouer any day – Cust’s name is easier to spell and Cust gets on base…
Why don’t the Royals go after Nick Swisher???
I think part of the reason people love to debate and even argue sports is that we’re not playing with the live ammo of politics. That kind of debate can be pretty painful, as the last blog illustrated. Arguing over something like OBP and how the Royals are putting together a team can be just as intense, but it is a nice diversion. Thanks, Joe, for allowing us to participate in that.
Mr. Posnanski,
I was saddened to see things go the way they did in the comments yesterday. After the infamous game 4 squeeze in this year’s ALDS, I jumped on Mike Scioscia in a comment on Craig Calcaterra’s blog. He asked me to tone it down, and he was right, of course: we need conversation, not fury and agitation. There is no place either for triumphalism or for demonization in a civil society. Your posts are thoughtful, well-sourced, and measured, which is surely a step in the right direction. I am sorry that not everyone saw it that way, but I encourage you to keep up the great work.
As someone who has come to follow the Royals a bit, partially due to the excellent writing of Joe, and partially due to a desire to see Alex Gordon succeed (at first it was for fantasy purposes, but now that he’s off my team, I’d just like to see him succeed anyway), I hope that you stay far, far away from Jeff Francouer.
As a lifelong Braves fan and Atlanta native, I say please take him. Hochevar, even Bannister, is more than enough in return.
Quite frankly, I’ve never even been convinced that the Gold Glove voters look at errors and fielding percentage when choosing a Gold Glove. At best, it seems as though they just anecdotally remember one or two good or flashy* plays a player made against their team and vote for that guy. At worst, it seems as though they only take it seriously enough to vote for the first player they think of at every given position, or just try to remember who they voted for last year.
*quite often, guys make the highlight reels because they dove for a ball that better fielders would have caught without having to dive. How many times have you watched SportsCenter and thought “THAT guy’s on the highlight reel? Seriously?”
I’ll admit to not having seen much of McLouth this year, but I agree that it seems as though he won not because he was good (or even acceptable) in CF but more because he didn’t tend to make glaring errors. Some voters obviously don’t think (or aren’t familiar enough with the numbers) to realize that if Player X were to make 500 plays but botches three, would still be more valuable than the player who would make 450 and botch 1 (assuming the same number and difficulty of chances, of course).
Interestingly, if you go to mlb.com, they have highlight reels of all the winners. I watched McLouth’s and honestly didn’t see a single play that I wouldn’t expect an average CF to get to. But he sure did make a lot of unnecessary slides when getting to the ball, so I guess there’s that.
I think the most soul sucking experience for a fan is to have a front office that does not share your philosophy (or has no clear philosophy) for building a team. My favorite part of the Epstein regime in Boston is that aside from the Lugo signing, I could understand every move they made. Some have worked and some haven’t, but it is reassuring to TRUST your front office.
I really want the Royals to do well, but at this point I do not trust the Royals management. The test of this, is that there is no Royals rumor so counterintuitive or outlandish that I would dismiss it out of hand. It’s very much like the late Duquette Red Sox.
While you’re waxing about the Not-So-Golden-Glove awards, don’t forget to mention Albert Pujols getting absolutely robbed in the NL. Every defensive metric I’ve seen has him head and shoulders above anyone else. AP should have 3-4 GGs & 3-4 MVPs. This is an outrage, I tell you!
Yeah, Pujols is possibly the best defensive player in baseball. In other words, he adds more defensive value to his team than any other player in baseball. And he does it as a First Baseman!
There are plenty of metrics that show this. (This year, I think Utley nudges him out. I saw that Utley added one more RAR than Pujols did. But generally, Pujols is right there in the top 3 every year.)
If anything, Pujols is underrated.
And I hate the Cardinals, by the way.
Mean Dean said…
“Frenchy pretty clearly has a higher ceiling than Omar Moreno/Willy Taveras type players”
Really?
I see no higher ceiling in these trends… (SLG %)
2005 (less than 300 abs) .549
2006 .449
2007 .444
2008 .359!!!!
And this part….
“But, as with Gutierrez, it doesn’t matter where the runs come from — OBP, SLG, baserunning or defense — as long as they’re there.”
Neither Gutierrez nor Teahan can steal first base – so their base running skills are alot like Tyler Thigpen’s pass catching ability – decent it seems, but rarely used. Using Jose Guillen – who will prove to be the worst free agent signing since Kevin “Shamoo” McReynolds in your argument, dramtically weakens an already weak argument.
I don’t mean to unload on Mean Dean – it’s just that it sounds too much like what Dayton Moore would argue if he were here. By the way has anyone ever seen a photograph of Mean Dean and Dayton Moore together???
Well, if Frenchy really is a .359 or worse slugger, then yeah, he’s absolutely useless. That seems unlikely. I just don’t think it’s going to be meaningful to use what some basestealers with zero power did, to project the career of a 6′4″ guy who has averaged 35 doubles and 22 HR per 162 games. Frenchy could hit for power, and thus have a decent OPS. Taveras/Moreno/Chuck Carr/etc. did not have that “option” in their development.
I of course meant to compare Frenchy to decent Jose Guillen, not the KC version.
I didn’t mean to say that Gutierrez and Frenchy are both great at all three of SLG/baserunning/defense. I’m trying to say that it’s all runs. OBP creates the most runs of those four, but they all factor in, and the total is what matters. If you can add total runs without A) trading more runs away than you gain or B) blocking anyone younger and potentially better, then I think you do that.
Teahen for Gutierrez totally fits those criteria IMO, at least if DeJesus is a bad defensive CF, anyway. Frenchy, it really depends what they’d give up.
Yeah, Pujols was definitely robbed. Adrian Gonzalez pretty much came out of nowhere to win that award.
It seems as though Albert’s one of those rare cases where he’s SO good that people tend to forget about him – he’s consistently the best (or second-best during BalcoBonds’ prime) at so many things, it’s taken for granted that he’ll do insanely good things on the diamond and therefore doesn’t really make for a good story. Another .330 season with an 1.100 OPS? Ho-hum. How about this lesser player who’s having a career year and coming in at .320/1.000? That’s MUCH more exciting!
I know we’re talking more about fielding here, but indulge me with a bit of a hitting rant on the subject of Albert’s underratedness.
His WORST month in terms of BA this year? June, at .302
A .302 average would have placed him 10th in the NL in 2008
OBP? July, at .413 (fourth in the NL)
SLG? June, at .558 (fifth in the NL)
OPS? July, at .978 (third in the NL)
So, the worst month of Albert Pujols, prorated over a full season, would have made him one of the top three or four players in the NL (depending on how you want to weight OBP, SLG and the like.) How many headlines did he gather for his ridiculous season? Fewer, at least anecdotally, than guys like Chipper, Berkman, Utley and Howard, who had white hot stretches but also endured some lows that were obscured by their hitting binges. Not to take anything away from those four, who are all extremely good to great players, but how can Pujols go so unremarked upon?
Also…ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Hank Aaron Award winner: Aramis Ramirez! I hate to bring up the concept of any sort of voting after how heated the last comments thread became, but I’m not so sure the fans should ever be allowed to vote for anything ever again.
I was going to make a joke equating Aramis Ramirez’ award with the current political system, but after the earlier unpleasantness I thought better of it.
So in the hopes that time soothes fiery political passions, I have decided to change my joke into a 19th century political metaphor:
Albert Pujols : Henry Clay :: Aramis Ramirez : James Polk
To avoid further unpleasantness, let me be clear: I am not saying I think Aramis Ramirez will soon get cholera.
Good post, Joe. Thanks for the numbers.
I really enjoyed the SI piece on Buck too, by the way.
I guess a trip to Amazon.com is in order, huh?
Thanks!
Buck O’Neill would want us to teach Gary, not hate him.
Well, Thrillho, as the saying goes, I already HAVE a Savior – I want a President. W wasn’t my Messiah any more than Obama is anyone else’s… though in fairness some Dems were talking about extra chapters in the Bible for Obama’s nomination and whatnot. But people have said a lot of silly things all over the political map for their own candidates, and post-election, when the fever recedes, there’s usually a universal dope-slap moment – “What the blazes was I thinking?”
I like to think that the previous post was the moment the fever broke around here. I pulled McCain’s lever but I’m not going to spend four years frothing about Barack Obama, because I like to think that I have a life to live, and that politics isn’t the be-all end-all of the world.
Nate McLouth, however? The only time Nate McLouth should be anywhere near any sort of Gold Glove is when Carlos Beltran shows him a picture of his trophy case.
Whoa…whoa…
If people think it’s all right to go around besmirching the name of James Polk in this day and age, then the protectionists have already won.
McLouth stood out to me as well as a completely aberrant choice, though I hadn’t seen the figure about his 1 error.
Something occurred to me though- McLouth plays in Pittsburgh, the same park in which CC Sabathia lost a no-hitter because the scorer ruled for a hit on a clear error. Apparently this guy must just hate giving out errors.
I was tempted to say that I’m sick and tired of Joe cramming OBP down my throat and vilifying me for liking Jose Guillen in spite of his waifish inability to get on base and was going to take my money and blog-reading time elsewhere, until I remembered, “Oh, yeah this is free.â€
If we weren’t all such emotional sots we’d have better campaigns, better leaders and much better government. Bill James (all praise) has shown us that emotion doesn’t sharpen arguments or help us make better decisions, but just muddies our thinking and usually leads to exactly the wrong decision. We can debate whether redistribution of wealth can make us a stronger more dynamic society that encourages people to get ahead (which I believe it could) or whether redistribution is too unfair and too unjust and would only discourage people from trying harder (which I believe is also possible,) or any other subject/policy/viewpoint, but “Socialist,†and for that matter “racist†and “bigot†and “terrorist†and “fascist†and “liberal†and “zealot,†etc., aren’t rationale arguments; they’re emotional zingers intended to shut down discussion. It’s like taking your ball and going home.
We can thank the marketing guys, and their more ambitious cousins the campaign consultants and television and the internet and probably a deteriorating educational system and, oh, human nature for this state of affairs and there’s probably not a lot that we can do about it on the whole, but as individuals when we feel the vitriol rising and our pulse racing we can stop and ask ourselves if what we’re about to say is in any way encouraging the discussion. Have we left our opponent any room for response, or is the only possible response more vitriol? It’s tough, because these guys are always pulling our cords and yanking our chains and winding us up, but come on, if we can decide that Derek Jeter really is a crappy shortstop, we should be able to avoid turning every political discussion into a flame war.
I don’t have much interest in a candidate’s policies or ideology, because this is America and the odds of any president getting to do exactly what they want are about the same as for Tony Pena Jr. getting into the HOF and because the real tests aren’t even part of the discussion yet (Rumsfield’s unknown unknowns.) I actually think that either man would have made a good president and you could never convince me that either would have been terrible. I voted for Barack Obama because he appeared thoughtful, intelligent, focused and in-charge of his campaign. I did not vote for John McCain because he seemed to not have the strength to resist the manipulations of his campaign advisors and appeared to become a different man from the one I’ve admired for the last 20 years (and the one that gave a brilliant concession speech election night, and the one we’ll likely see back in the Senate opposing Pres. Obama every time it makes sense to do so,) one that was willing to trade expediency for principles and one that looked more and more uncomfortable at his own rallies. I also voted the way I did, because, for the last eight years, the country has moved toward laissez faire economics, unilateralism and increased executive power and I believe it’s time the pendulum swung the other way. (and okay, just a little to smack the GOP, for the messes the Bush administration has made.)
The beauty of democracy and capitalism is that neither have anything invested in an outcome. Both are experimental and rely on the belief that the more experimentation you do, the more likely you are to get something right and the less likely you are to get something so wrong you can’t get out of it (See U.S.S.R., former).
Not to be overly critical, but the Royals had an OBP+ of 95 last year, compared to a SLG+ of 96. They need slugging just as much as OBP. Jacobs gives 150(!) points of slugging over Gload. Under simple assumptions, giving Jacobs Gload’s at bats last year improves the Royals by 20 runs, or about two wins.
I take your point about sticking to the plan, but no plan should include passing up opportunities to improve the club by 2 wins in a minor trade.
@Taylor … “There is no place either for triumphalism or for demonization in a civil society” …
Wish I’d said that. And Rocketman’s post, too.
And Bill James is right – 85 to 90 wins with the current team AS IS.
Joe:
Let’s face it: Dayton Moore is at least as bad at putting together a lineup as he is good at finding pitching. Of course, he trades talent and overspends on the crappy position players (using that term loosely for Jacobs) while picking up pitching on the cheap, so the balance sheet isn’t great…
Anyway, I just wanted to note that while I totally agree with you about offense, you are, strangely, a bit behind the times. Fielding is the new OBP. Although I doubt DMGM (pretending it wasn’t an “absolute lie”) sees a possible Franklin Gutierrez acquisition in that light, the guy was at least +20 runs on defense this year. That’s right — he could hit like a replacement level player and still be around a league average player with that defense. (Incidently, Endy Chavez also fits into that category). Players need to be looked at as a whole. Yeah, I’d rather have a good OBP guy. But CHONE recently projected Gutierrez to be +19 runs in CENTER field… that would be a huge bonus. Not a lot of runs scored, but again, he’s be an above-average player with that knid of defense in CF even if he hit like, well, Endy Chavez. And he’s young enough to think he can hit as well as moronic-2008-DMGM acquisition Jose Guillen.
So, while I think Teahen, in absence of better options, needs another year to suceed/fail out there, I was pretty excited about the Gutierrez rumor… then it turned out the Royals ended up with Jacobs. Ugh. Somewhere, Chuck Lamar is worrying about Dayton Moore…
Meanwhile, DMGM complains about the “young guys” not being excused by their age, while he’s signing sub-replacement scrubs like Guillen and Gload to extended deals. I wish other people at the Star had the stones to call him out on that. Now he keep hearing that Butler might be out, and Frenchy might be in. I guess scapegoating Baird’s guys is the way to do it… you know, since the previous regime’s guys are the only ones on the team who look like actual major league position players (DDJ, Aviles, Gordon, even Buck and Teahen are better) , as opposed to worthless players like Gload and Guillen who look like they need to retire or be end-of-the-bench-league-minimum NL players. Add Gathright and TPJ (strangly, TPJ was the smartest acquisiton of all those guys, given his almost-average 2007 performance [not end-of-the-world offense like 2008, great glove, although that’s all over now…).
You should hope the Royals really aren’t interested in Betancourt. As a resident of the Northwest who sees the Mariners play way too much, let me tell you he’s a liability defensively.
Dude, STFU- you’ll queer the deal!
Betancourt is actually a great defensive shortstop and is destined for great things. I would hate hate hate to see him traded from my beloved Mariners. Also, please don’t throw me in that br’er patch.
Trade Butler to the Rays so I can be happy.
Thanks :]
Zach,
Someone one Keith Law’s chat on espn today asked essentially:
Butler to the Reds for their pitching prospect, Homer Bailey. Who does/doesn’t make that move?
Law’s reply: he thinks both would. . . fwiw
Joe, I would LOVE to see you do a post on David Glass and his payroll budget(s).
The team supposedly made around a $20 million profit in 2007, presumably will make the same profit in 2008, and for 2009, despite a probable boost in revenue due to the newly renovated stadium (I would estimate that at a minimum of $10 million boost), we have to read Dayton Moore say they are done with player acquisitions for this off season, because the payroll budget will stay around the same level as 2008.
All of that from an owner who PURPORTS to be in it as favor to Mr K, and who PURPORTS to be happy simply BREAKING EVEN.
The taxpayers of Jackson County should be OUTRAGED, as well as all Royals fans. The Star, IMHO, is doing a lousy job of holding Mr Glass accountable. I think it should be their job to expose such poor management when they see it – and they still treat Mr Glass with kid gloves, IMHO.
I didn’t really connect the dots between my posts and your post about the players speculated to being “targets” of the Royals.
Obviously, if Glass raises the payroll to where it SHOULD be ($75- $90 million range), the Royals could target some guys with, you know, actual GOOD OBP.
Franklin Gutierrez was the best defensive RF in baseball last year by Dewan’s +/-, and hit .285/.354/.462 in the 2nd half of the year.
I think he’s a excellent “buy low” opportunity for a small market team.
Since the Royals traded for Jacobs, they should talk to the Yankees about a Ryan Shealy deal.
The 2nd point that needs to be made about McClouth is, yah, he made 1 error, but didn’t he make that play in the all-star game, throwing someone (michael young??) out at the plate.
Why don’t the Royals call Raul Ibanez (when it becomes legal) and ask him how he’d like to spend his declining years in KC? I could happily spend the next 3 years watching him turn himself into Matt Stairs while the Royals draft and develop an outfielder of their very own. If the Royals are so sure DeJesus can’t play CF, are they also really sure Mark Teahen can’t? They’ve tried him at 3B, 1B and RF and he looked like a dandy defender in all three spots. If they feel speed is mandatory, Nook Logan is probably still around somewhere. I always thought he was better than Taveras.
1) Brilliant blog Joe. Brilliant. I’m not sure how you find all the information or the resources or even remember all the different minutiae, but it’s all good.
2) While happy for President Obama, I’ve noticed that the post-President-elect Obama world is remarkably similar to the world of Nov. 3.
3) I’m decidedly unhappy for Obama because he’s inheriting a broken country with a malfunctioning democracy that has arguably the worst educated Federal Government and populace for any nation with such ridiculous amounts of wealth and financial leverage.
4) If you need to replace Leo Nunez, you can always pitch Tony Pena Jr.
Joe:
Your civility is more than Gary (“The hope Obama is selling is entirely false… their Messiah has failed to deliver the goodies… you have just lost a potential sale for your book… It’s sad that you had to sink to this level…The race card will get played like it’s never been played before… Vitriol is a funny thing… Democrats have called the current president a war criminal who stole elections… those in the tank for Obama, like Posnanski… hold hands and sing Kum Bah Yah with the Messiah… I don’t wish to lower myself to the gutter level of the other side… he is not the MESSIAH… the cult of personality that infects his followers… MessiahMessiahMessiahMessiah”) and his poor widdle hurt feelings deserve.
The Rove/Bush playbook was a short one: winning is all, and winning supersedes all criticism or skepticism. That’s an airtight philosophy which works to perfection… until you lose. Then, it’s nothing.
It’s a bad, crazy day for those who’ve invested their faith into nothing.
Joe,
Good post. I always find the Gold Glove selection process to be facinating and mystifying. As a loooooooooong suffering Pirates fan, I usually get all excited when one of our guys wins an award, makes the all star team, or gets more than one hit a week.
However, McClouth….? You have got to be kidding me!
PS – Thank goodness the political posts are ALMOST over!
I think it will be interesting to see whether the Pirates or the Royals compete first. I have to say, if the clock started at the the beginning of the 2007 season (the totally arbitrary starting date I just decided on) the Royals had a bit of an advantage with Gordon and Greinke. However, I think Huntington has done a great job in the past year, while Moore has been a little more rudderless.
The Pirates seem to be much clearer on where they are in the cycle of competing. They know they’re bad and are in the process of dealing whatever talent who won’t be around when they are good for young guys who might be. The Royals appear to be much less clear on where they are in the same cycle.
It’s kind of like both teams are banking on averaging 75 wins per season over the next 5 years. The difference is, the Pirates want to win 60, 60, 75, 90, 90 and the Royals are content with 75, 75, 75, 75, 75..
Good post, Gate. The main difference is that Huntington (out of Cleveland) not only is familiar with these new “computers” that all the hip young GMs like to use, but also, being form Cleveland, understands that finding market inefficiences and underpaying for value is smarter than thinking one has to “overpay” to bring average-if-we’re-lucky guys like Jose Guillen to KC.
DMGM is still operating like he has Ted Turner’s budget (and notice the directino of the Braves organization since the sale), and then when he runs out, he doesn’t have a plan and acts like there is a problem.
It is tough for small-market teams to compete no matter what, but doubly so when the GM has no clue how to work around the limitations. Glass deserves plenty of blame, but if Dayton Moore didn’t realize he couldn’t do things the “old-fashioned way” in KC, then he’s basically a rich man’s Allard Baird.
i love to watch victorino, but it seems like nationally he doesnt get the credit he deserves as a fielder, top 5 arms in the game, ect. good to see the coaches give him his due.
obama got his first top secret briefing. im pretty sure this is the coolest day on the job. think about it. he gets all the area 51 and Men in Black stuff.
I have a whole new respect for baseball statistics and how rigorously they are done now after spending all year at Nate Silver’s site fivethirtyeight.com. He absolutely nailed the election taking his knowledge from baseball prospectus and applying it in a new arena.
Your post yesterday was outstanding and should not have elicited the rage that it did. If DMGM trades Butler, Gordon, or Greinke, I think that I am flat done with the team. I moved from Kansas in 1986 and have stayed a fan all of these years, and have had hope with his administration. But if he does something that outrageous, then, well, wow.
[...] can (and should) also read Joe Posnanski’s look at this thing because he does a much better job than I [...]
Gary, Joe can write about whatever he wants on this blog. This is not his KC Star article. Gary, please do everyone a favor and go away.
Joe, the SI piece was excellent, as is all your Buck stuff, and your post about the election.
“Hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things.”
– Andy DuFrane, The Shawshank Redemption
Cynics are just broken-hearted optimists. God bless ‘em.
(Having said that, I confess to living there when it comes to the Royals…)
Joe
He who sows the wind etc.
You did a post about politics. The day after the election. While your (I’m not American) society is deeply divided. You should have known better.
And yes, last Tuesday night was something special. For the first time America has chosen for the president a socialist, who even doesn’t hide his ideology. A sad, sad day for America, a sad day for the whole world.
Been saying it for years, bears repeating. The Royals have NO chance as long as Glass is the owner. None, nada, zip, zilcho…
Re : Darren Lewis. Neifi Perez got 5127 at-bats with an OPS+ of 64…
Which HAS to be some kind of all-time record.
I think Francouer will rebound after a bad year. His numbers have been good in the past and I wouldn’t mind it if the Royals gave him a try, that said they shouldn’t give up much to get him if it presents itself. From my understanding Frenchy is high on Moore’s wishlist.
I would not be in favor of any trade involving Butler or Bannister.
If I were a baseball player with a decent bat, I would play my position as follows :
Never reach for a ball you could conceivably get. Never dive for a ball you could conceivably get. Never run too far. Only go for those fly balls that you’re 100% certain you will catch, and then catch them with both hands to make sure you don’t drop it. Don’t charge in on any balls, don’t run back on any balls. Just play your position as Stan Musial’s statue would play it.
As a result, I’d win a gold glove every year because I’d have a fielding percentage that would make me the modern day Ozzie Smith. And I’d sail into the Hall of Fame with my 19 gold gloves.
The state of baseball thinking in this country makes me terribly, terribly sad. Michael freaking Young. And you though Derek Jeter was bad.
If Chuck hit .389/.389.500 on a 2-0 count, that means(incredibly) that it NEVER led to a walk
What’s with the shot at James Polk? Seriously, if you don’t like Obama, of if you don’t like McCain, whatever, whatever. But Gate, how can you possibly put James Polk on the level of Aramis Ramirez?
As so often happens, I must let a child lead us… or more precisely the children of “South Park.” In their post election episode (and I’ve got to say, as a long time computer gaming professional who taped the episode and watched it closely, they HAD to have made about 1.3 episodes in advance and then spliced in the appropriate winner/loser comments*; a brilliant piece of fast topical animation editing) all the folks who voted for Obama partied in the streets, all the folks who voted for McCain hid in caves, and only the kids were sane. The next morning, the world hadn’t ended, the partiers were hungover (if not unemployed and pantsless), and life goes on.
For a number of years I could not watch football on television because I got so angry at bad calls even if I wasn’t rooting for either team. Well, this election seems to have rubbed a lot of people the same way. We have had 43 presidents and somehow survived them all. We have had presidents take office during recessions and wars and muddled through. The vitriol of this campaign, on both sides, clearly was beyond the pale. Obama has not even taken office and yet some folks are acting like he is worse for the country than World War 2, The Civil War, the Great Depression, the San Francisco earthquake, and 9/11. We survived all those things (and many others). So take a deep breath, settle down, and give the guy a chance to actually do something wrong before we go all apoplectic about him. Unless you’re racist. In which case, okay, Obama truly is your worst nightmare. Sorry, dude.
The major subplot of the South Park episode was a takeoff on Ocean’s Eleven, where McCain and Obama had set up this entire election to guarantee one of them would have access to the Oval Office escape tunnel, which runs directly under the Smithsonian, and by using it on election night when everybody was either partying or hiding in caves they could thus steal the Hope Diamond. And I’d bet a paycheck that if McCain had won, they would have had the episode ready to go the other way.
As for the Royals, they need a lot. The first step is to get nine guys on the field regularly that many other teams would want to have on THEIR teams. I think Mike Jacobs is such a guy. I note that Billy Beane traded for Matt Holliday today and speculation is rampant that he’ll trade Holliday for more stuff. Is there any chance that Jacobs was acquired the same way? I mean, the Cubs are one “win now” team that was extremely susceptible to RHP in the playoffs; perhaps Lee or Jacobs could play a bit of outfield, and Jacobs would be a straight platooner, and then the Cubbies might be able to sneak past all those right handed rotations in the NL West. If the Angels don’t sign Texeira, Jacobs might fit in there. So I think the Royals got Jacobs because he was clearly a better player, and they’ll either use him (and maybe get the team slugging component of OPS+ up to 100) or trade him for more valuable pieces than they gave up.
Yeah, I know, it requires believing in competence in the Royals’ front office. But keep hope alive, at least until they disappoint us again.
Finally, as for Polk/Clay/Ramirez/Pujols, what I *think* was being suggested is that Clay was the better man for the job, but Polk got the presidency, same as Pujols is better than Ramirez, but Ramirez got the award. But that’s probably just my degree in American History talking through 30 years of spiderwebs and disuse. Personally, I’m having some major arguments as to whether or not Buchanan was the worst president of all time for his failure to prevent the Civil War (I argue not; out and out corruption to me is worse than mere incompetence). But Polk wasn’t that bad. Not a drunk like Pierce.
In Cleveland I’ve also been hearing the Teahen for Guttierez rumor. I’ve got to tell you, I’m not at all excited about the prospect of Teahen being our third baseman (although at least he’s a lot better than Marte. So he’s got that going for him, which is nice). I know Gutierrez had a bad year, but he is a great defender and I think would be more valuable to a club like Cleveland as a 4th outfielder than Teahen would be as a starter, even though Teahen is probably the more valuable player overall, if that makes any sense.
Also, Gutierrez obviously couldn’t hit last year, but he’s young and could develop into an average hitter. Will he?…Oh, I don’t know. Let me get back to you on that. I’ve got a guy on another blog about some white walls.
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