Jon Lester put up an ERA+ of 143 in his age 24 season.
Daisuke Matsuzaka put up an ERA+ of 158 in his age 28 season.
Josh Beckett, in a season that was compromised by two stints on the DL, put up an ERA+ of 114 in his age 28 season.

Additionally, Buchholz, Masterson, and Bowden offer the possibility of another young arm to do battle with the vaunted Rays.

The real wildcard, of course is the Sox’ (and Yankees’) ability to make big ticket acquisitions to augment their rosters. So, maybe your buddies Allard and Bill decide that signing Teixeira or Sabathia would put the Sox over the top.

In that case, they rotation could look like:
Sabathia
Beckett
Lester
Matsuzaka
Wakefield/Buchholz/Masterson/Me

or their lineup could look like:

Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Youkilis 3B
Teixeira 1B
Bay LF
Drew RF
Lowrie SS
Varitek C

The Rays are undoubtedly loaded with young cost controlled talent. I guess what I am trying to say is, bring on Spring Training; I miss baseball already.

Phils 5 Rays 3 game 1

1B – Close, but Youk is younger and more consistent, plus can play solid third base if needed. Advantage – Boston
2B – Clear advantage for Boston
SS – Bartlett may be the Rays MVP, but Lowrie outhit him, is four years younger, and can play three positions. Advantage – Boston
3B – Overwhelming advantage for Tampa
LF – Crawford is a bit younger and is entering his prime, but Bay is a better all around player. Advantage – Boston
CF – Clear advantage for Tampa at the moment, though it will be interesting to see how Ellsbury develops.
RF – Clear advantage for Boston, assuming Drew can stay on the field. If not, all bets are off.
C – Clear advantage to Tampa, as Navarro is young and good, while Varitek looks like he couldn’t hit my fastball at this point.
DH – Even a battered Papi is better than Cliff Floyd. Advantage – Boston

Rotation – I’m going to call this a push. The back end of Tampa’s rotation (call it Price and either Sonnanstine or Jackson) is better than Boston (Buchholz and Wakefield). That could change if the Sox dump Wakefield and/or Buchholz finds his groove again, but as of now the Rays have a clear edge. Conversely, I think the Sox are slightly better at the top. I will still take a healthy Beckett and Lester over Garza and Shields. That leaves Matsuzaka versus Kazmir as the deciding factor, and I can see both sides of that one. Kazmir’s much younger, which is in his favor, but Matsuzaka has been more durable and has a better overall track record once you take Japan into account. Their career ERA+ marks are almost identical. I’ll call that a push.

Bullpen – I don’t see how this can be called anything but a major advantage for the Sox. Papelbon, Okajima, Delcarmen and Masterson are all good and (except for Okajima) young. They’ve also got Michael Bowden waiting in the wings. Except for J.P. Howell, the Rays pen is comprised of older journeymen with no real track record of success, except for Percival, who can’t say on the field. Okay, maybe Wheeler if he’s limited to a setup role, though he’s already 30 and has fluctuated as wildly as most middle relievers throughout his career.

Of course, all of this is as of right now, which won’t really reflect the two teams when the 2009 season opens. I suspect Tampa will sign a bat and trade away an excess arm for another bat, while I suspect the Red Sox will deal for a better backstop and find another solution for their final rotation slot. Regardless, based on just the talent currently on the team, I still think the Sox have a future that’s at least as bright as Tampa’s.

I agree that Crawford is somewhat overrated, and the bullpen could well be something of a fluke (if only because good bullpens are frequently flukes). But Longoria will continue to mash, and I think Upton has more power than he’s shown this year. I also think you underrate Carlos Pena. His ‘07 was clearly an outlier, but I don’t think he played too far above his head – if at all – this year. The Rays are not exactly shoo-ins to dominate the AL East for the next five seasons, and I certainly don’t think the Red Sox are going anywhere (the Yankees are a question mark – if their young pitching comes around, they’ll be good, if not, who knows), but they’ll be serious contenders for quite some time.

It’s a story, about a man named Brady, ( come on , sing it, you know the words ).

The Brady Bunch, The Brady Bunch.

And their best players won’t reach free agency for, what, 4 years? Except for Longoria — who will be the best of the bunch — whom they’ve signed until he retires.

Face it: we’re all screwed.